2009 MLB Free Agents: The Under-30 Group

Today let's take a look at the players in next winter's free agent class who will be under 30 years old for the 2009 season.

Mark Teixeira (29) - Teixeira is a Scott Boras client, and he seems primed to mash 40 homers and 120 ribbies in his contract year.  I think we're talking seven years, $150MM here.  Will the Braves pony it up?  What about big budget teams like the Yankees and Mets?  What about the Red Sox, Angels, or Giants?  The Orioles have made no secret about their desire to bring the Annapolis native aboard.  (Speaking of Baltimore, I just finished season four of The Wire and it was awesome).

Felipe Lopez (29) - He'll need to get his OPS back up over .700 to become interesting.  And the move to second base doesn't help.

Cesar Izturis (29) - He's only had an OPS over .700 once in his career...he'll be flashing the leather for the Cards this year in an attempt to rebuild value.

Hank Blalock (28) - It'd be pretty surprising if the Rangers passed on his $6.2MM option for '09.

Adam Dunn (29) - He's basically Teixeira with worse defense.  I wonder if he'll get Torii Hunter's five-year, $90MM deal.

Wily Mo Pena (27) - He's got a $5MM club option or a $2MM player option for '09...seems that one of 'em will be exercised.

Rocco Baldelli (27) - The Rays have to make his option decision by April 1st.  He remains an intriguing talent in need of a good medical staff.

Jon Garland (29) - Seems that Garland is primed to push the bar for mediocrity to $13-14MM over four or five years.

Oliver Perez (27) - Think he's going to get a lot of attention next December?  He just needs to replicate his 2007 season to earn himself a good $16MM per year.  No joke.  Earned only $2.3 mil in '07, too.  Could be an expensive consolation prize for teams that miss out on Sabathia.

C.C. Sabathia (28) - Johan Santana's contract may serve as a guidepost...I'd be surprised if Sabathia takes less than $20MM annually.  He's the top free agent pitcher in this class, unless Santana plays out the string with the Twins.

Francisco Rodriguez (27) - Mariano Rivera got three years, $45MM.  K-Rod is set to coast past that to set a contract record for a closer.  Five years, $80MM maybe?  Seems absurd but could happen.  If he doesn't fly past Rivera, Joe Nathan will.

Rafael Soriano (29) - Could be a $9-10MM guy if he has a big year and saves 35 for the Braves.  If the Braves lose Soriano and Teixeira, at least they'll get some sweet draft picks.

Juan Cruz (28) - Intriguing live strikeout arm, needs a healthy '08.

Brandon Lyon (29) - Could earn one of those big-money setup man deals for $5-6MM over three or four years.

Comments

[04Forever]

i doubt if half of this list still exist this time in novemeber. but still, it looks to be interesting year if half of them still are, will see, its another long season away

[Bleacher_Buddha]

Wow.. if Sabathia is to make 20 mil per.. will the Indians be able to keep him? If not shoudl they trade him now? I mean they can make a serious run next year but.. if they lose him after the season is it worth it? I mean I would if I were an indians fan but...

[Bleacher_Buddha]

that wasnt very clear... sorry I am also trying to work. If I were an Indians fan and I could make a serious run at the WS, I would risk losing him at the end of the season. But I am a Cubs fan so that should say enough. :-)

[cfrezz]

Adam Dunn is not Teixeira with worse defense. Dunn strikes out a bunch more and his career average is .248 where Teixeira's is .286
Dunn probably has more power but that's the only category he has over Teixeira.

[TheAngelicDoctor]

Adam Dunn is not Teixeira with worse defense. Dunn strikes out a bunch more and his career average is .248 where Teixeira's is .286
Dunn probably has more power but that's the only category he has over Teixeira.

I came in here to say this.

[themfightnwords]

Yea the Dunn-Texiera comparison is really a stretch. And you wrote

Juan Cruz (28) - Intriguing live strikeout arm, needs a healthy '07.

It should be '08

[nrmax88]

I think Oliver Perez should and will be locked up sometime either before the season or in April or May. Perez revamped his career in NY and I think he would sign as long as he got something fair. Like I said the other day, I see an extension in the 4/60 neighborhood for Perez pretty soon.

[Tim Dierkes]

Dunn career OBP/SLG: .381/.519

Teixeira career OBP/SLG: .371/.539

Strikeouts and batting average not relevant, what's the big diff here aside from defense?

[gogopalehose]

First off, Dunn is one of the worst left fielders and Tex is one of the best first basemen. That means that Tex saves runs while Dunn bleeds them away, Second off, strikeouts and average are relevant, if only a little. Strikeouts have no progressive value, they are just outs. Meaning Tex can actually drive in more runs and move runners over with those extra sac flies, groundouts and hits. Whereas Dunn would just strikeout. And Tex has a higher SLG with most of his career in a slightly lesser offensive environment. So yeah, I'd take Tex, certainly over Dunn.

[WeToddDid]

Dunn career OBP/SLG: .381/.519

Teixeira career OBP/SLG: .371/.539

Strikeouts and batting average not relevant, what's the big diff here aside from defense?

I came on here to say this.

[jnr98]

Just imagine for a second this scenario: Twins AND Indians have a weak 1st half and determine that they are indeed "out of it" by the Trade Deadline. What would the frenzy look like if both Santana AND Sabathia hit the market? And in order for that to happen, one has to reasonably assume that both the Sox and Yanks were in the running. That would truly be insane...

Oh yeah, Nathan would be out there, too. What a crazy time that'd be next Summer.

[WHITESOX]

I wouldnt be suprised if Garland gets a huge deal, maybe like 15-16 Million a year, CC and Santana should both easily hit 20 Million a season as well, maybe more. Soriano should get a very nice deal as well, even as a middle reliever, good ones are hard to find.

Not sure about Oliver Perez, it would scare the hell out of me if I was a GM to give him 16 M a year.

[nrmax88]

Yea, but giving it too Garland would do what, conquer your fears?

[Not Joe Morgan]

And the Yankees have around $65MM coming off their books in 2007.Sabathia, Teixeira and Dunn could all conceivably fit needs with Pettitte, Giambi and Abreu heading out. If they refrain from Santana, this could be a lot of fun.

[bobo]

I doubt they'd go for Dunn, but getting Texiera's power at 1B which has been a problem-sport in recent years would be perfect.

It would allow for an OF without a ton of power (Cabrera, Jackson).

[Guitar Hero]

Why do teams even bother with free agency? It's so expensive...maybe to fill one or two holes, if you don't have to overpay that much. But it just seems so much better to take you risks in the draft and pay 10-15 to get a great one, instead of having to pay the Oliver Perez's of the world so much;

[Darin]

No offense Tim, but those two stats don't make Tex and Dunn comparable. There are many more differences between the two, than there are similarities.

And batting averages are relevant, because if you're not getting hits, then you're probably not going to drive in a whole lot of runs. Dunn has over 850 PAs than Tex and only 17 more RBIs......

[TheAngelicDoctor]

"Dunn career OBP/SLG: .381/.519

Teixeira career OBP/SLG: .371/.539

Strikeouts and batting average not relevant, what's the big diff here aside from defense?"

Touche`.

[TheAngelicDoctor]

Though, when you think about it, defense can't be the only difference in the players. If Tex is projected to make 150M and Dunn 90M, then Tex's defense is worth 60M. If that were the case Alex Gonzalez would be in the middle of a 60M contract.

[Tim Dierkes]

Those two stats definitely make the two comparable on offense and in fact the value of the extra OBP might even put Dunn ahead. The RBIs don't mean jack, there are a million reasons for an RBI diff outside of a player's control. Better researchers than I have shown the strikeout to not be much different than other outs.

The difference between the two players remains their defense, and first base defense isn't all too valuable. Hence the diff. between the two is negligible overall (price won't be though).

[djskilbr]

While I think it's a fair point that Dunn doesn't connect as much (remember, he didn't have a sacrifice fly even for over a year at one point), I mainly am with you Tim, on OBP. The difference in defense is tremendous though, as you seem to account for.

Also, why didn't you include Nathan on the list Tim? He stands as much chance as KRod to actually hit the market (ie likely neither will) and he's the better closer judging by just about every stat.

Just curious. Thanks.

[ksesxe]

Here's to hoping we keep Big Tex in the ATL.

[djskilbr]

My bad, Tim. I just realized that it was an under-30 group, and that Nathan is over 30. I guess that's the only plausible reason imaginable to not put him above KRod.

That makes sense. My bad.

[gogopalehose]

He's not under 30? That's the list.

The fact that Dunn drives in a lot less runs than Tex has to count for something. Not a lot, but something. Now, they haven't signed their contracts yet so maybe the difference won't be that high, but a lot of it depends on the upcoming season's production. And the fact that Tex's agent is Boras. And remember, even if hey both signed at Tim's respective guesses, they'd still only be about $3-3.5 million off in annual salary, which seems about right.

[Teetz]

"The difference in defense is tremendous though, as you seem to account for."

Tremendous? No. At 1B? Even less significant. Dunn is a liability in Left Field, but as a 1B he's not going to be incredibly far off from Tex. A strikeout is an out, nothing more. The McCarver-esque cliches of moving runners over, having more RBI chances..etc is all a myth and, as Tim has stated, is provided with loads of statistical research.

Adam Dunn and Mark Texiera are very different ballplayers, but at the end of the day, they provide right around the same production. The point to be made is Tex, because of the histrionic morons running baseball teams these days, will get an obscene amount more in his next contract than Adam Dunn while providing similar production.

[gogopalehose]

^As I said before, they probably won't have a really gross difference in salary and a lot of that can be attributed to Boras. The fact that Dunn has been making more than Teixeira shows that the people who run the show up there(GMs) aren't morons. However, when one player is saving runs on defense, and one is losing them, it does make the good one a bit more valuable. Defense is a big part of the game, and Dunn fails at it where Teixeira excels. And I'd be willing to bet my left ass cheek to say that Tex is still better than Dunn if Dunn is playing first base, and if they were both playing left field. There have been worse reasons to give a guy an extra 3-4 million over another guy.

[rafa]

Dunn a Teixeira with worse defense? Are you out of your mind? I agree with you but most of your posts but this is absurd.. Dunn is somebody i would never like in my team, Its a guy that plays just for himself and hom,ers or strikes out.. Teixeira has more contact and defense.. Every year Dunn barely passes the 100 rbi while teixeira has 4 seasons in a row driving 100, he once did 144..

So i think they are veeery different players

[djskilbr]

Teetz, I do think they are vastly different defensively. Yes, 1b defense doesn't matter as much but Tex is a top 5 defensive 1b while Dunn is one of the very worst. That is a difference.

As for RBI's, hey, I'm as low on "rbis" as anyone. They're completely meaningless as a stat. I wish we would just get rid of them, in fact. BUT the contact issue does matter in this instance, albeit relatively slightly. Dunn has been atrocious with men on base (ie sacrifice flies) in his career because he doesn't make contact. That DOES give Tex a bit more value. Not a ton, and I agree with the overall point that they're close offensively, but some.

[Tim Dierkes]

OBI%: the fraction of runners on base who were driven in during a batter's plate appearances.

2007
Dunn: 15.4%
Tex: 18.9%

2006
Dunn: 12.7%
Tex: 15.5%

2005
Dunn: 13.5%
Tex: 21.0%

2004
Dunn: 12.2%
Tex: 18.4%

Here is some good data that is better than RBIs (but does not prove my point). Basically Tex consistently drives in a larger percentage of the ducks who are on the pond than does Dunn.

[Darin]

Tim,

Adam Dunn career RISP
.222/.416/.468

Mark Teixeira career RISP
.327/.441/.645

That's the reason Teixeira drives in more runs.

The point I was making earlier is that you can't drive in runs when you take a walk (or strikeout). And I guess if you simplify the goal of offense in baseball is to not make an out, then Dunn is a great player. But he's a #4/#5 hitter, who's paid and expected to drive in runs. And historically when Dunn has that opportunity, he is not that good at it.

In 17% less PA with Men on Base, Tex has driven in 8% more runs than Dunn.

The OPS is similar, but they are not similar ball players.

[Bleacher_Buddha]

The reason that Joe Nathan wasnt on this list is he isnt under the age of 30 which was the point of this list.

[Bleacher_Buddha]

sorry I just posted that. I didnt read down far enough. A nice refresh was in order. :-)

[djskilbr]

That's some excellent stat work, Tim. Thanks for that.

I still believe, without the specific numbers in front of us, that a lot of that is do to contact ability. As I said, Dunn went over a full YEAR without a sacrifice fly recently! How many power hitters have you seen do that?

That's why I think Tex gets SOME points for contact, even though I'm certainly not an rbi guy.

Anyway, interesting look to be sure.

[The Juice]

I think the Giants will throw a large sum of money at both Tex and Dunn and see if one bites. I don't think either of them will want to play in the NY market, but I will guarantee both of those players get paid King's ransoms.

If K-Rod gets anything more than 14 million a year, there will be an outcry in the baseball world. Rivera got the money because if ever played on another team, Yankee fans would revolt. Frankie will gt paid, but not the absurd dollars people may think.

[DentalPlan]

Adam Dunn's value is crap because his play in left field bleeds away runs. As a result when you take a look at his WARP it's pretty poor considering his numbers. He's the second worst outfielder in baseball behind Josh Willingham.

[DentalPlan]

I don't think Jon Garland will get $16 million a year either.

[MEddler]

I really hope Perez gives at least some consideration to giving the Mets a discount. They threw him a bone and for whatever reason, he resurrected his career. Maybe it was Rick Peterson, maybe it was Shea Stadium, maybe he's just built to play in NY.

[MEddler]

I'd love to agree with you nrmax, but Scott Boras doesn't like his clients signing extensions, especially if they're having big years. My gut tells me that Ollie isn't locked up going into November, but he'd be foolish to fly away. Especially if he continues to improve.

[vt_Brady2705]

I'm afraid I have to vehemently disagree with the people who claim that defense at 1st base is not as important. There's no other position on the field other than the pitcher and catcher who is more often involved in a play. Having a great defensive 1st baseman is one of the most valuable and underappreciated commodities in the game. I'm a Braves fan, and I've seen plenty of LaRoche and Tex over the last couple of years. I also saw plenty of Scott Thorman at the beginning of this season. And looking back on it now, I can't tell you how important the difference is. It's not just diving plays and pretty catches. It's all the times he bails out the other infielders by taking their bad throws, falling over to make the catch with a toe on the bag, applying a perfect spot-tag on an errant throw. Countless times I would watch someone bounce an awful throw to Tex, only to see him scoop it up and keep the out intact. If that ball got away from him, as it almost certainly would have on a lesser first baseman like Thorman, the inning is alive, all the runners move up, and run(s) likely score. People talk about how great Andruw's defense was, and how important it is. But I ask you, how many balls in a game will Andruw catch? Averagine 400 or so put-outs a season, we're looking at a little less than 3 balls in a game. And on average, maybe only 1 out of every 3 or 4 games is an amazing catch that someone else wouldn't be able to make. The first baseman being able to bail out other fielders on bad throws is a much much more common occurrance, and I guarantee you saved the Braves more runs defensively than anything Andruw or anyone else in CF could have provided.

[rafa]

Have any of you played baseball in your lives?

Baseball is not about hitting Homers.. baseball is doing every little thing (bunts, drive the run when you need it, clutch hitting, stolen bases) needed to win the game.. Dunn is for me a really horrible player, which ONLY good thing is his power but what use does it have if he doesnt drive too many runs? The team needs lots of runs, not lots of homers.. Its really dumb to even compare dunn with teixeira that is a really complete player that plays for the team and has great tools like contact, power, defense while Dunn just has the power .. ONLY that

[scribbletone]

yeah rafa, Adam Dunn sucks. I would totally hate it if I had a guy hit 40 homers with a .400 OBP every year. What a worthless sack of crap.

[Yu Hsing Chen]

Wow, someone just came out of a time warp. hi it's not the 1950s anymore.

I agree that Teix is a better player than Dunn. who should be a AL DH anyway. but the differene in their perceived value seems bigger than their actual difference. I'm certainly a bit more comfortable giving Dunn a Torii Hunter contract (than I would be giving Hunter a Hunter contract that's for sure lol) than i'd be willing to give Tiex a Giambi one.

[djskilbr]

rafa, are you a HOF voter or MLB award voter? Because that's what it sounds like.

Wait a second; you're Joe Morgan aren't you? That's the only way I can explain what you just wrote.

[nrmax88]

"I'd love to agree with you nrmax, but Scott Boras doesn't like his clients signing extensions, especially if they're having big years. My gut tells me that Ollie isn't locked up going into November, but he'd be foolish to fly away. Especially if he continues to improve. "

Yeah, true, but I think Omar will try to get something done before spring training. If he lets Ollie walk, I will really be devastated. I have defended Omar every step of the way, because I genuinely think he has done a superb job. I think some of his critics (met fans), just dont understand the game very well and think it is the same as MLB 07 the show, where you just throw around fake money and trade your farm for anybody. All the people who think I am just a Met homer wearing the blue and orange glasses, not the case. I was to a point where I was ready to get rid of my Met pom poms for a couple years from around 02-04. I am also a knick fan, enough said, a Ranger fan, they stunk for about 10 years, and a Jet fan, again, enough said. I really do support Omar and think he has done a good job keeping his cool and not caving to the pressure of the fans calling for his head. But if he lets Ollie walk, then he can walk out right behind him as far as Im concerned. Getting Oliver Perez was the best deal Omar has made since coming back to the Mets, and letting him walk would be the worst move.

Just kind of funny, last year when me and a couple of others were expressing our confidence in Oliver Perez and the Met rotation, people called us delusional, stupid, pretty much everything in the book. Now a year later we are discussing the possibility of him making 16 mil annually.

Just saying :).

[nrmax88]

"before spring training"

should read during spring training.**

[nrmax88]

rafa youre so dumb I bet when you were born the doc slapped your mom.

[nrmax88]

"Wait a second; you're Joe Morgan aren't you? That's the only way I can explain what you just wrote."

Maybe he is Peter Gammons, and next we will hear him say that maybe there is a reason that Dustin Pedroia has been to a world series and Alex Rodriguez hasnt. I still cant believe that senile old idiot said that. He said it as if he was being slick too. As if you could have swapped Pedroia for A-Rod and Pedroia's team would have won it anyway. Maybe it was ellsbury and not Pedroia, not really sure, but its the same difference.

[dholzer007]

In all fairness to Rafa, there is a time where you do have to forget about statistics for a minute and think about the actual person/player.

I think a perfect example is Vicente Padilla. I remember everyone here was pimping him as being a good pitching alternative around the time of the Zito signing due to his stats...with everyone saying things like "Why don't they just sign Padilla, he's better than Zito."

My point isn't that Zito is any good or anything like that, but more that Padilla sucks as a person, and now no one at all seems to want him. So I guess I'm just saying that while the stats are definately important, so is what kind of person they are.

Or I could be wrong. Feel free to call me an idiot and various other names to make yourself feel better.

[nrmax88]

Ok, we are not talking about Vincente Padilla, we are talking about Adam Dunn. If he said Vincente Padilla is horrible, I wouldnt have said that he was an idiot. And besides, Vincente Padilla hasnt had a good season in 4 years. I honestly dont have any clue where you are going with this. Somebody said Adam Dunn was a horrible baseball player. Adam Dunn has a lifetime 900 OPS, and 4 straight 40 home runs seasons. He isnt horrible. He is actually a very good offensive player. I dont know why the hell your arguement is that Vincente Padilla is not a nice person. And besides, do you personally know Mark Texeira or Adam Dunn anyway? So what the hell? And even if you did, it still doesnt change the fact that the guy who called Adam Dunn an horrible is an idiot.

[nrmax88]

And I dont call people idiots to make myself feel better, for the record. I call them idiots to make them feel stupid.

[Smoltz's Beard]

According to my boys over at TalkingChop.com Soriano is signed through '09, making 4mil that year.

[nrmax88]

Which does in turn make me feel amazing about myself, but it is not my direct objective. :)

[BrianTX]

I love Adam Dunn. Every year he gives my fantasy team 40HR/100 RBI. I can't believe I keep getting the guy 2-3 rounds after I should.

[studio179]

"I love Adam Dunn. Every year he gives my fantasy team 40HR/100 RBI. I can't believe I keep getting the guy 2-3 rounds after I should."

He goes about where he should go every year here. I have not had him though.

[Ya Hote Ta]

A.) You can make numbers say just about anything you want.

B.) Up until last year, if you're only judging by OBP and SLG (OPS), you're pretty much saying that A-Rod and Dunn were almost the same player.

I'm sorry, but I just have less respect for a guy that has almost 50 more strikeouts than hits per year and doesn't even hit .250 on a consistent basis.

[nrmax88]

I wonder how Adam Dunn sleeps at night knowing you dont respect him.

Also, Arod has a OPS like 70 points higher then Dunn for his career so I dont know what the hell you are talking about.

[rafa]

I didnt say that adam dunn sucked, of course he has a lot of power and he is reday for the big leagues, no doubdt but in my opinion you just cant compare him to a player like Mike Teixeira.. And i said too that is a player that i would never like in my team.. But i never said that he sucked

So yeah, keep calling me whatever you like, i dont give a crap

nrmax hahaha you wish you could possibly make me feel idiot but you are not even close..

scribbletone.. nice sarcasm, specially because adam dunn had a 400 obp just ONCE on his career.. and it was "400" ..

Wow, i wish i had a player who had a 248 career avg.. yeah, awesome, who strikeouts 194 times in 561 at bats.. and 1000 strikeouts in just 7 seasons.. Wow, ill tell you , thats a great player!

Im sorry i dont think like you, i just dont like a player who just swings as hard as he can and post so horrible average numbers.. He has great power but i think that a 4th batter needs more than that, and thats why i say that teixeira is waaaay better than Dunn.. Not even comparable!

So yeah, be my guest, continue insulting me and being sarcastic without giving me any GOOD reason on why do you even compare dunn with a great, complete player like Teixeira