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« Signings Galore | Main | Carlos Pena Signs Three-Year Deal »
Fernando Martinez May Be Key To Santana Deal
Nothing groundbreaking here, but Ken Davidoff spoke to "an industry offical familiar with Minnesota's trade discussions," who believes the inclusion of young outfielder Fernando Martinez could close the Johan Santana deal for the Mets. Davidoff notes that some combination of Carlos Gomez, Deolis Guerra, Philip Humber, and Kevin Mulvey would have to be in there too. Perhaps the sides will ultimately agree on Martinez and all the rest except for Gomez.
The Yankees and Red Sox remain in the mix, though the Yanks seem ready to move on.
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I figured it would come to this, but it sucks. F-Mart is highly praised by many scouts, and seems to have limitless potential.
If I'm Omar, I try to keep Guerra instead of Gomez.
Posted by: JerseyMetFan | January 18, 2008 at 07:53 AM
The Twins are doing a little risk management. Three of the players that the Twins want from the Mets have huge upside. F-Mart, Gomez and Guerra. The problem is that they are all VERY young and not as polished or MLB ready as the players the Red Sox and Yankees are offering. So for the Twins to make a deal with the Mets, they need more quantity to offset the risk involved with players that have huge upside, but also might never make it to the show.
Posted by: grandmasterb | January 18, 2008 at 08:09 AM
Understandable, but you're disregarding their ceilings by demanding more.
F-Mart has a higher ceiling than Ellsbury, but is younger and riskier. I think you have to choose between the two. Why can't BS go to the Sox and say "Look... Ellsbury's ceiling isn't close to F-Mart's. I need more."
I also think it's funny when people say "They just need to add F-Mart." Can you imagine a Yanks trade where the other team said "OK we're close. Just add Hughes now"?
I just want this all to be over with. I don't even care anymore where he winds up. If it's not with the Mets, then he stays in the AL, and I can live with that.
Posted by: JerseyMetFan | January 18, 2008 at 08:16 AM
Why can't BS go to the Sox and say "Look... Ellsbury's ceiling isn't close to F-Mart's. I need more." - JerseyMetFan
Because Theo would say, "But F-Mart is nowhere near MLB ready and might never reach the Big Leagues......Ellsbury is a known talent and has had success on the MLB level.".
I am in no way disregarding their ceilings, just recognizing that talent alone does not always equal success. Lets put it another way. Disregarding salary, who would you rather have Beltran or F-Mart? I know I would rather have Beltran, because he is a KNOWN COMMODITY. And that is the whole reasoning for the Twins wanting more from the Mets....High talent/High risk.
Posted by: grandmasterb | January 18, 2008 at 08:42 AM
I concur with the "I just want this all to be over with."
I've always been pretty indifferent to the Twins, but this fiasco has made me much less Twins-positive. I look forward to the Sox kicking their asses in 2008, with or without Santana.
Posted by: fapelbon | January 18, 2008 at 08:52 AM
we all want this to just be over with but it if you put yourself in the twins shoes
your trying to contend in 08 with or without santana...however there taking there best player and trading him which is why they want mlb ready talent
the redsox and the yankees have kinda been fended off since the redsox want to include crisp/elsbury in any deal...but the twins don't want crisp they want bucholz/lester and the redsox don't want to do that
as far as the mets go none of those players have been proven so its a very tough deal to make he has to deal with the backlash that this trade could to his team and his teams fanbase
the guy isn't a billionare for nothing
Posted by: nbbaseball51 | January 18, 2008 at 09:03 AM
Hey, i don't get it !
Why would they turn down the Redsox deal which includes their #2: Masterson and 3 prospects: Jed Lowrie, plus Lester (baseball prospectus); and instead take 4 guys who are so young and high risk ?
It just seems to me that the Twins want to compete, so why not get guys that are helpful sooner, rather then later, and / or eminently tradable for what you want ?
I know the Jays would give up a bunch to get Jed Lowrie, but no way the redsox will trade him in the division.
I Still don't understand why the mets are winning this thing.
Posted by: BaseBallz | January 18, 2008 at 10:27 AM
winner's curse
Posted by: John Peterson | January 18, 2008 at 11:07 AM
I don't think 116 ML AB's is nearly enough to "know" what to expect out of Ellsbury.
While he may not carry as much risk as F-Mart, he is far from an established player.
Posted by: bjsguess | January 18, 2008 at 11:23 AM
Obviously, the Mets are going to include F-Mart or Gomez and the other three. It does not make any sense economically whatsoever to trade both outfielders consider the cost of actually signing Santana and the advanced age of Moises Alou. Someone will have to man LF at Citifield in 2009, and the likelihood is it will be one of those two players. They will not be going out and signing a free agent; I think that much is clear. My hunch is that the Twins will eventually accept Gomez and the three pitchers.
Posted by: DG | January 18, 2008 at 11:39 AM
My hunch is that the Twins will eventually accept Gomez and the three pitchers.
Gomez, Guerra, Mulvey and Humber sounds like a mediocre haul to me, and I'm a Mets fan. Mulvey and Humber are back-of-rotation guys, Gomez has shown neither power nor plate discipline and Guerra is miles away from the major leagues. If Omar pulls that off I take back everything bad I've ever said about him. I think it's certainly gonna take F-Mart to get it done.
Posted by: JK47 | January 18, 2008 at 11:48 AM
Oops, first line was supposed to be italicized.
Posted by: JK47 | January 18, 2008 at 11:48 AM
This is the whole problem with the market for major league baseball today.
Everyone is so wrapped up in the prospects, which adds so much uncertainty to every deal. Although I understand that everyone is looking for young players, it adds a new element to the trading process that makes this sort of thing tedious. If teams are so reluctant to ship off their prospects, then they should not be so reluctant to get rid of their current players.
The Mets are trying to make a relative steal here by not giving up the farm, but in all honesty, Santana probably is worth the farm. I know he is one player, but in terms of importance and notoriety he is more important than all the players the Mets are offering, and he has many more years to go.
The Mets need to back down or give up the farm, I doubt they can go in the middle if they want to get this deal done.
Posted by: phillyphan610 | January 18, 2008 at 12:21 PM
the prospects being over valued isn't the problem with these trades...
the problems with these trades are the fact that they require money...lots and lots of money
look at the yankees for example say chamberlain, hughes, kennedy all pan out to be good major league players...maybe not but just good major league players...all have shown the potential to be this
how much money would the yankees save to keep this three pitchers and not pay santana 140 million or so
thats the hold up for every team and it always will be in this new "scott boras age"...
Posted by: nbbaseball51 | January 18, 2008 at 12:45 PM
"I don't think 116 ML AB's is nearly enough to "know" what to expect out of Ellsbury." - bjsguess
I never said that it is a known what Ellsbury will produce. I said that Ellsbury is a KNOWN TALENT and has HAD success on the MLB level. BIG DIFFERENCE.
Posted by: grandmasterb | January 18, 2008 at 01:37 PM
F-Mart is no where near as good as ellsbury. As I covered at http://ultimatebaseball-cgouds.blogspot.com F-Mart will almost definately make the Majors; the only question is will he have much success when he gets there. He'll probably be a 20-30 HR guy with 80-90 RBI a year, but not a big difference maker. However, Ellsbury will be a gold glove leadoff man who scores over 100 runs every year and hits 50 doubles and 15 HRs a year. If I'm Billy Smith I take the Sox offer over the Mets, but the Twins know what they want more than any of us know what they want. So there's no way to tell which offer is best in their eyes.
Posted by: C-Gouds' UltimateBaseball | January 18, 2008 at 01:56 PM
With the Mets having a serious play here, an ace up their sleeve could be to acquire Santana and flip him to the Bosox who are more than willing to cough up the cash, the Mets could make out like a bandit with the Redsox trying to ensure Johan does not end of in pin stripes.
Posted by: soxbraintrust | January 18, 2008 at 02:20 PM
C-gouds, why dont you go on some other blog and tell all those people who dont care how the Royals are going to win the division and be the best team ever and blah blah.
The fact that you are prediciting F-Marts future RBI season totals is a joke and already enough of a reason for nobody to take you seriously. I am projecting Jed Lowrie to be a perennial 79 RBI man, so he will just be okay. It is stupid. And enough with the link for your blog in every single post.
Posted by: nrmax88 | January 18, 2008 at 02:28 PM
Here go the mets again. Diden't they learn their lesson? (Scott Kazmir) They've had success with developing their own talent.(Reyes & Wright among others.)Now they want to gut their farm system to aquire a good pitcher who I belive has already had his best seasons. I my view this is a big mistake, they have the young arms they just need to develope them.
Posted by: braveguy | January 18, 2008 at 07:42 PM
The Twins don't need Humber or Mulvey (they'd be like 8 and 9 in order for the rotation this Spring). The trade will probably be something like Guerra, F-mart, Gomez, and some player few have heard of. The Twins have a great record of plucking players from other systems (Bartlet, Casilla, Liriano, Santana, Ortiz, Mays to name a few over the past ten years).
Posted by: Pseudofool | January 18, 2008 at 08:08 PM