Johan Santana Rumors

Oh looks more Johan news, lol. Just get a deal done!

If the mets offer Of Carlos Gomez, P Phillip Humber, P Deolis Guerra, P Kevin Mulvey that won't be quite enough. If they add Martinez then that would probably get the deal done, but not because of the prospect package, but strictly because they would be shipping to the AL and in 2010 will not have to go through santana to get through the playoffs

not sure how the best pitcher in baseball going into his prime could be considered overated...
that being said I dont think any of these teams should give in to the twins demands. they are the ones who will not get anything if santana stays an leaves via free agency which he will. this offseason is the only time he can be moved because he said he would veto a trade during the season. Why should these teams give up so much for 1 year of this guy plus a rediculous contract on top of it.

Wow Heyman is even leaning towards the Mets. Thank God my G-men have allowed me not to care as much about a much needed up grade to the Mets rotation.

I have difficulty seeing the Mets aquire Santana without giving up F-mart, but I would not be surprised if it happens. That possibility has been swirling around for a while now. I could see the Mets throwing in Kuntz or Vineyard.

Kunz and vineyard haven't been pro's long enough to be traded, so I would be surprised to see them included.

Not quite yet I don't think, I can't see vineyard having much value yet anyway.

metafrantics right, i also think that the twins fans will also be alittle pissed if he stays after all this mess as well.

Even if Vineyard were trade elligible I wouldn't add him to that package. He is a very talented kid. He has star potential!

saying he's overrated is flat out absurd

Why is it absurd? The very best players are often among the most overrated. Think Ken Griffey, Jr in his prime. He was an amazing player back then, but to hear some people talk he was Babe Ruth and Willie Mays rolled into one. The fact that Santana is probably the best pitcher in the game doesn't mean that he can't be overrated.

Jeter is overrated.

There is something odd about this whole situation. While the rumored packages being offered are clearly not amazing they are definitely better the draft picks so it seems like the Twins would be dumb not to move on one of them. However, the length of time they are dragging their feet suggests something else is going on here.

The offers are unlikely to change anymore than they have up to this point simply because the circumstances have been the same for so long. Now maybe the Twins are prepared to take the gamble of taking Johan into the season and waiting for the Yankees or Mets to get desperate. At this point it seems entirely possible the Mets are the only team making a real offer and the fact that such a package as rumored is lacking might be enough to make the Twins want to gamble. Anyone who believes Santana would not accept a trade to a contender (especially one with deep pockets) within the season is crazy.

Note I am not suggesting the Red Sox offer is not legitimate but at this point I have a suspicion it is at last somewhat contingent on the Yankees possibilities of getting Santana. Meaning the Red Sox would make the trade for Santana to keep him from the Yankees but otherwise they might be more hesitant.

Jeter's offense certainly hasn't been overrated. He's been #1, #1, #4, #2, #6, #4, #2, #5 in OPS among shortstops from 2000-2007 (listed in order).

His defense definitely isn't GG worthy though (that what you're referring to?). Looking at every single fielding statistic listed on ESPN for example (fielding percent, putouts, assists, double plays, zone rating, range factor) he's middle of the pack among shortstops (during 2004-2006 when he won the Golden Gloves...significantly worse than average in 2007 tho). I'm not trying to say the statistics are a perfect indicator of his defensive ability but you'd think the supposed "best" AL SS among those years would at least be near the top in most categories...

My last post was in response to 92-93 if it wasn't clear.

Right. So what you have proven is that he is a top SS over the last few years (going back more than 5 is silly), but not top 3. People get excited because of the rings. Well you know what, Jorge has em all too. Factor in his below average SS defense (by more advanced metrics than ESPN provides) and it's ludicrous that many people would answer Jeter to the question - Who is the best SS in baseball?

JimCrikket, you can be the best and still be overrated.

Some people are talking about Santana as if acquiring him will guarantee that your team wins the World Series every year you have him.

Best pitcher in the game or not, there's still 24 other guys on the team that also have to play well for you to win. If he was the solution to all problems, the Twins would just keep him as it would obviously enable them to win the World Series this year.

Smith absolutely has to do something in the next couple weeks. The Twins can't afford to risk the chance of losing Santana just for draft picks. And trying to trade him in July would be suicide. No team in the league is going to over more than 1-2 good prospects for only a half season of Santana. This is being handled so childish by Smith and the Twins

I keep hearing the Twins want a "major league ready player"...how has Aaron Heilman's name never popped up?? the guy is 26, just getting into his arbitration years, and has been one of the most effective relievers in the NL the last few years...so i think a package of OF Carlos Gomez, P Aaron Heilman, P Deolis Guerra, and another prospect is a nice deal, and Heilman can even take over for Nathan after 2008, or go into the rotation, he is very versatile, i cant believe the Twins and Mets haven't talked about Heilman

Aaron Heilman is decent but, he's not the centerpiece of any trade.
You can do better than that ... What would 3 of your 7 outfielders fetch if traded to San Fran, Oakland, the Angels, or Toronto?

Heilman hasn't been mentioned because the Twins don't just need "major league ready players", they need major league ready center fielder and #1-#2 level starting pitcher.

Their bullpen is pretty much set and has been one of the strongest in the league the last couple of years. Heilman is only valuable if he (or one of the existing RPs) can be spun for something the Twins do need.

With teams like Oakland and Baltimore in "rebuild" mode, it does seem like there should be some kind of multi-team deal out there to be made. Getting the pieces to all fit together is always going to be a challenge.

"But if I said that Santana was worth more than the other four put together, I'd pretty obviously be overrating him."

No, now you are talking about comparative "value" and as I (and NJM) already stated, it's perfectly valid to feel he may be overvalued based on what the Twins are asking and teams may offer.

But you can't be "rated" any higher than first... so it made no sense for the same writer to say he felt Santana was the best... but still over "rated".

Regardless... more than enough time wasted on splitting those hairs.

"Did I just read that post correctly..."

Apparently not. He was saying that if the Yankees and Red Sox really are lowering their offers, then the Twins should look elsewhere.

I do not see either the Yanks or Sox sweetening the pot, and in ways it down seem as if they are in it to keep him from the other.
All the offers are very simply underwhelming.
As a Sox fan it can be said that that offer is a plus to the Twins, but in essence I see both packages with question marks.
As a Yanks fan seems like the packages will also include questions + the major question Melky 4th OF.
As a Mets fan, The package has “potential” valued all with questions.
As alluded to previously the fact stands that each seem to be lowering their offers...
So as it stands, the Twins should just pony up and give a real contract extension and have this all done with...

Coco Crisp is not a backup outfielder. If the Red Sox end up with both Ellsbury and Crisp, Crisp will be the starter on opening day in Japan.

Also, I would argue that with Pridie in the farm system (acquired in the Garza trade) the Twins don't need a young centerfielder. They need a short term solution.

(For JimCrikket) Overrate and Overvalue are synonyms.

Why the twins have to trade Santana NOW...

1.What if Phil Hughes, Ian Kennedy, Jacoby Ellsbury, Jon Lester and/or Gomez are playing up to there expectations...do you think its going to make the Yankees, Red Sox, or Mets more inclined to trade them? I don't. Now what if all or some of these players play horribly? Will the twins want them still? Probably not.

2.In July what will the odds of the Twins giving a team a 72 hour window to negotiate a contract? Remember if a deal is not reached with the trading partner the Twins will lose valuable time to negotiate with other teams. Odds are the Twins will NOT give a window...its not going to make teams overpay.

3. Yes mac_1103 it's a good point that the Yankees made good draft picks in the 06 draft. But is there a guarantee that the Twins are as lucky? Looking up and down drafts over the years there have been MANY bad picks. Why shouldn't the Twins take the prospects from either the Sox, Mets, or Yanks that have actually proven something in professional baseball (and have even had time to progress in the minors-being able to help the major league team as soon as this year)?????

*I have a theory that Phil Hughes was never offered by the Yankees. I just cant see the Yankees offering up a prospect like Hughes and then holding the deal up over Kennedy*-Just a thought...

I'm in the minority as a Red Sox fan but-What is the big deal about trading Ellsbury? Can someone please tell me what you think is his potential. He looks like AT BEST a .300 hitter with a .380 OBP, Zero power, a somewhat free swinger and a ton of speed. It sounds like Juan Pierre with better avg and obp to me. While this is a valuable asset(especially for the money he will make) Would you not trade that for Johan Santana? Especially considering you have a decent player to fill his place in center field(who is signed for 3 years)...now don't try to mention the other players in the deal while they are valuable as well i think its safe to say anyone would trade them for Santana.

*Note: I hate the argument about his personality-how he fits the "dirt dog" mentality...numbers are numbers... I will take the ace and the great defender over Jone Lester and a .300 hitter any day! Especially in the play-offs.

I still don't understand why the Angels won't get into the bidding. A package of Weaver, Wood, Matthews and Figgins would surely get the Twins to bite.

How can you honestly even compare draft picks to prospects? They're just completely different animals.

The draft is almost essentially a crapshoot. Most of the players are so raw that the draft is almost completely projection. There are probably way more bad picks than there are good ones. The reason the Yankees got Chamberlain and Kennedy with those picks are because they are extremely, extremely lucky. The odds of the Twins coming up that lucky are zero. Literally they're pretty much zero.

When acquiring prospects, you get a far better view of the players they will become. They have been playing professional baseball now for a couple years, and projecting their development is much easier. With prospects you have a pretty solid idea of what you're getting in return, although its risky, but with draft picks you have almost no idea what kind of player they'll become, because you're basing everything off of essentially raw skills.

And also, I think the Twins are screwing up this situation, and Bill Smith is close to overplaying his hand. If the Yankees have pulled Phil Hughes off the table, then they're pretty much out. The Red Sox are definately not going to raise their offer, and if anything it'll dwindle with time. That leaves essentially the Mets as the only team still genuinely bidding in this. And since I see no way in which the Mets give up both Gomez and Martinez at this point, considering they'll be bidding essentially against themselves, the Mets offer will probably top out at something like Gomez/Martinez, Guerra, Mulvey, Humber and 5th decent prospect. Although this offer could potentially be the best, as Guerra and Martinez have superstar potential.

Derek Jeter is overrated compared to what? he has played 12 seasons in the bigs, and has played a full season every year, except for one when he dislocated his shoulder.

Jeter is a 317 career hitter. in the 11 full seasons that he has played, jeter has averaged 120 18 80 24 .317. In the one shortened season, 119 games, he put up 87 10 52 11 .324.

Jeter also boasts a career 390 obp. and a career 850 ops.

again, he plays every game, every year, and is ridiculously consistent.

now, in terms of jeter being overrated, name me three ss over the last 20 years who have consistently, year in/year out put up comparably great numbers at the ss position. for example, arod is a 3b, and doesnt count as a ss.

in terms of his value relative to today's ss, who would you take over jeter, for 2008 only? and if you say jose reyes, you lost before you even started.

"Of course, Minnesota isn't likely to use those picks to draft guys like Kennedy and Chamberlain because they tend to draft based on signability rather than talent."

Ian Kennedy and Joba Chamberlain combined got $3.35M in singing bonuses from the Yankees. Joe Mauer got over $5M from the Twins five years earlier.

The Twins can afford a couple of high-cost, low-risk draft picks. And keeping Santana will probably increase their 2008 revenue by a couple of million bucks, which could pay for one of those signings all by itself.

"for example, arod is a 3b, and doesnt count as a ss."

Did he count as a SS when he was playing SS? Because you did say the last 20 years, and Rodriguez was a full time major league shortstop for 8 of those.

"in terms of his value relative to today's ss, who would you take over jeter, for 2008 only? and if you say jose reyes, you lost before you even started."

Jimmy Rollins- better hitter, better fielder, better baserunner, Rollins kicks Jeters ass.

Jose Reyes- How can you say Reyes is definitively worse than Jeter? Reyes is far more effective on the bases, and is a better fielder. If Reyes can bounce back somewhat with his hitting this year, then he is most definately the far superior player.

Hanley Ramirez- Possibly the best offensive player in the NL. This guy brings everything to the table: speed, power, average, etc. He is everything you want in a hitter. I don't even care if he is a butcher with the glove, I promise you that any team in baseball would rather have Ramirez over Jeter.

If you think Jeter is better than any of those three players, then you are just blatantly wrong. Jeter fits in comfortably after those four guys, with decent competition from Tejada, Cabrera, M. Young and Renteria.

"now, in terms of jeter being overrated, name me three ss over the last 20 years who have consistently, year in/year out put up comparably great numbers at the ss position. for example, arod is a 3b, and doesnt count as a ss. "

And regarding this quote, some names I would like to throw out there for Jeter's competition for best shortstop of the last 20 years: Cal Ripken Jr. (SS for 16 yrs, 3B for 5 yrs), Alex Rodriguez (SS for 10 yrs, 3B for 4 yrs), Barry Larkin, Nomar Garciaparra, Miguel Tejada

Call my crazy, but I think there's an argument that can be made that not only are the Mets offering the most longterm upside, but they're also offering the package that could best suit the Twins to have a shot at competing in 2008. Here's my reasoning:

The first thing the Twins will need to compete in 2008, assuming they trade Santana, is a pitcher (or two) to eat all those innings. Even if they do trade Santana and get some good young arms in return, they'll have a rotation that's best described as blindingly bright green.

Obviously, the initial reaction here is that Phil Hughes is pretty advanced and a potential stud, and therefore should be the best bet to compensate for Santana. But, he barely cracked the 100 IP mark last year after a 146 mark in the minors the year before, and he'll still only be 21 on opening day. Pushing him well past 140 innings is asking for trouble, especially when your making such a huge investment in one player like this. Trying to get even 170 out of him would be a MONSTER gamble, and simply put, poor investing. He'd be a walking injury risk.

So what about Lester? He's older and also pretty advanced, and has more upside than the more advanced arms the Mets are offering. Still, he was only at 135 IP last year, and he's now three years removed from his career high of 148. You might be able to push him up towards 170, but 180 would already be past where he starts becoming a pretty big risk.

The secondary arms in these proposals, Marquez and Masterson, offer some interesting insurance. Marquez would be less of a risk in trying to push him towards the 180 IP mark. However, he spent all of 2007 in AA and his ceiling is probably the lowest of all the pitchers that have been discussed, including the ones the Mets are offering. Masterson has a very high ceiling as a big, hard throwing righty, but he's yet to put it all together as a starter. He was dominant in 2006 in 30-something relief innings, but hasn't been able to match that success in a starting role, and unless he's converted full time to the pen, he likely won't be a factor in 2008.

Now for the Mets. Obviously, Guerra's too far away to include in this discussion (although of all the pitchers mentioned, his ceiling is at worst second only to Hughes). However Mulvey and Humber are both interesting options. They both threw about 150 innings last year and will be 23 and 25, respectively. They may not have the projectable ceiling of Hughes, Guerra, or Lester, but they could carry a larger load with less risk, especially compared to Hughes, since they represent a more evenly spread out investment. Plus they've both already experienced at least AAA (even if for Mulvey it was only a few starts, he was quite strong in them). Neither would be locked into Minny's rotation the second they were acquired, but if either managed to stick in Spring Training, they could be relied upon more heavily than any of the other pitchers mentioned, aside from maybe Marquez, who would be about on par with Mulvey, at least in terms of projected durability. Humber could turn out to be the real steal of the package. The second year after TJS is often the roughest, especially for young pitchers, and Humber still managed to be relatively effective for most of the 2007 season. Command is often the biggest concern, and if you look at the numbers, this is a department where Humber barely suffered at all. His curveball is still on par with anyone in the majors.

After SP, the second thing the Twins need is a CF, preferably a plus defensive CF who adds some sort of offensive weapon.

Melky qualifies defensively, but he's no stud outfielder, and he adds little offensively. Taken along with Hughes, Considering all this, the Yankees offer may in fact be the WORST in terms of giving the Twins the quickest turnaround.

Ellsbury and Gomez, however, both qualify both defensively and offensively. Ellsbury adds a better offensive resume to the top of the Twins order with good defense. Gomez has the potential to do the same with outstanding defense, but he may also need more refinement first. At the very least, he would add blazing speed and a potential quality leadoff hitter to the Twins lineup.

Obviously, it seems like a no-brainer that Ellsbury is the most valuable short-term OF upgrade discussed. However, there's a catch. If the Twins are nabbing Ellsbury, they will be nabbing nothing in the way of advanced talent at SP, which is a bigger need, especially in terms of 2008.

I nominate MEddler's post as the most intelligent post I've seen posted on all of the MLBTR Santana trade discussions.

(and as sad as it makes me to admit it, i've read at least 60-70% of the individual responses between all the Santana rumor threads)

"Jimmy Rollins- better hitter, better fielder, better baserunner, Rollins kicks Jeters ass."

Comments like this justifiably piss off Jeter's fans. In terms of hitting, Rollins' career year in 2007 doesn't match Jeter's career averages. Jeter has 8425 PA of 122 OPS+; Rollins has 5162 PA of 98. His best years would be off years for Jeter. Rollins would have to have to hit like Ryan Howard for the next five years to match Jeter's value with the bat to date. That's not an exaggeration, it's a fact -- Rollins would have to put up an OPS of 973 over his next 3263 PA in order to match Jeter's career batting line through 2007. Think about that for a few minutes.

"...he’s hardly Gods gift to men..."

Can't we just admit that what really pisses us off is that he apparently is God's gift to women?

"Comments like this justifiably piss off Jeter's fans. In terms of hitting, Rollins' career year in 2007 doesn't match Jeter's career averages. Jeter has 8425 PA of 122 OPS+; Rollins has 5162 PA of 98. His best years would be off years for Jeter. Rollins would have to have to hit like Ryan Howard for the next five years to match Jeter's value with the bat to date. That's not an exaggeration, it's a fact -- Rollins would have to put up an OPS of 973 over his next 3263 PA in order to match Jeter's career batting line through 2007. Think about that for a few minutes."

Calling Rollins 2007 an off year for Jeter is a complete joke considering of Jeter's 12 years, his OPS has only exceeded Rollins' 2007 (.875) just three times (1999, 2000, 2006). We're pretty far removed from to the first two as well... As Scribbletone pointed out, on the base paths and in the field Rollins is the superior player as well.

I'm not trying to argue that Rollins is the better player, but you DID actually ask about who would be a better shortstop in 2008. Why then are you bringing up CAREER numbers as if they'd be the sole determinant of future performance from these two players? Pedro Martinez has a career WHIP of 1.03 so of course by your logic we can project that in 2008 he's going to match that number right?? I could certainly understand if you presented a three-year average as a better projection of the players 2008 performance than their 2007 numbers alone, but career numbers really have no place in this discussion. No one is trying to say Rollins has had a more prolific career. Also, why, after making your grand claims that there is no more desirable SS in 2008 and has been no better SS in the past 20 years, are you ignoring every other player scribbletone mentioned except Rollins?

Nick from Washington Heights: Agree with most of what you said except for one little tiny issue. For a shortstop, i certainly would not consider Jeter's baserunning "good." Not terrible, but not certainly not above average either. Again that's just among shortstops, which is who we should be comparing him to correct? You're definitely right though about Jeter being really easy to respect on personality alone. Definitely a classy guy.

wow i didnt even realize that gfulla said what i just said above already. well. alright sweet.

Your missing my point. I don't necessarily disagree with you, but my point was that Hughes and Lester and Melky and Crisp aren't going to make the Twins significantly better in 2008. In fact, pitchers like Kevin Mulvey (who is easily rated higher than Blackburn or Duesing) and Philip Humber (an oddity because TJS, relatively minor surgery, delayed his development a few years back) are MORE likely to help the Twins in 2008 than any of the other pitchers named in trade talks OR any of the Twins major pitching prospects.

Swarzak is interesting, but he's further away than anyone we're talking about. A guy who totaled 100 IP in AA the previous year isn't going to make a huge contribution at the MLB level. If he does, it'll be to protect a guy like Hughes.

Blackburn and Duesing project as relievers/swing men from most of what I've read and seen in their stats. They started to heat up in the high minors once they outgrew the competition. Reading BP, they don't seem like huge contributors in the future. If the Twins felt differently, they probably would have dealt Santana already.

Perkins is a wild card, but he's coming of a year where he suffered shoulder problems and he'd only managed 125 IP the previous year. He could eventually come back and be a solid pitcher, but its way to early to tell.

Who knows what will happen with Liriano. He was worked WAY too hard by the Twins in the minors, and now they're paying the price. He could come back and be pretty good right away, but to expect him to give you even half of what Santana had been giving you would be foolish. Your setting yourself up for heartbreak. His innings will be monitored carefully, even if he's successful, which is far from a guarantee.

Baker could be above average, but that's offset but the fact that its equally as likely that Bonser is well below average.

Slowey is the gem of the rotation, and he could be really solid, but when your ace had a 4.72 ERA last year and an 11.07 H/9, your rotation is not in good shape.

Again, the point is Phil Hughes is not the answer that instantly makes this team better. If you think he's a better bet for the future, which I could see, that's fine. I respectfully disagree with you, but I understand why you'd feel that way.

As for CF, you can have fun waiting for Ben Revere while Carlos Gomez is stealing 60 bases and Fernando Martinez is making his debut. Sure you could use a SS, but taking Adam Everett's glove out of a lineup that's already defensively deficient for Jed Lowrie's bat just doesn't strike me as the answer.

P.S. What makes you think the Rockies would even dream of trading Ian Stewart for two months of Santana? I mean, I know they showed a degree of interest, but that sounds like pipe dreams to me.

Oh and as for Pridie outrunning Gomez, I doubt it.

2007 Gomez AAA + MLB:

94 G 265 AB 29/36 SB/SBA

Pridie AA + AAA:

134 G 524 AB 26/36 SB/SBA

Pridie managed more than twice as many ABs as Gomez (injury and time in the bigs due to other injures) and still they attempted the same number SBs, and even still Gomez's percentage was better. Gomez's speed is not just good, its off the charts. He's faster than Jose Reyes, and that's according to Jose Reyes.

I do like Pridie though. He looks kind of like a Jed Lowrie version of a CF. He's definitely more advanced than Gomez, but his ceiling is lower (I know I keep saying that, but that's just because Gomez's ceiling is quite high, think Alex Rios with more speed and better defense, not saying that's what he'll be but his ceiling is that high). How does Pridie's defense grade out? I'd concede a bit of the importance of the CF point if it was high, but I'm just going off what I've read and seems to be a consistent theme from multiple sources.

"You should look at the context more before disagreeing with someone"

This is actually pretty funny. You're the one who decided to change the question from career to present or future, and you don't even realize that you did it.

Getting back to Rollins -- he has posted OPS+ above 100 exactly three times. Two of those were 102 and 103. But you all seem to be convinced that he's going to slug .500 every year from now on. Really? I find that very interesting, because I knew a lot of people back in 1999 who thought that Derek Jeter was going to put up those numbers every year for the rest of his career.

So what about Lester? He's older and also pretty advanced, and has more upside than the more advanced arms the Mets are offering. Still, he was only at 135 IP last year, and he's now three years removed from his career high of 148. You might be able to push him up towards 170, but 180 would already be past where he starts becoming a pretty big risk.

umm lester pitched 153.2 innings last year between his major leauge and minor league innings so i dont know where u get 135. he would of had more but they sox didnt want to rush him cause he was coming off cancer. lester still has some command issues but give him a full season working with john farrell and a lot can happen look what happened to josh beckett a full year after working with him. im not saying lester will be an ace or anything cause the sox dont need him to but he does project to be a number 2 or 3. the sox are better off not trading him a young rotation of beckett, dice k, buchholz and lester is pretty solid. not to mention masterson could only be a year away and if his change up keeps progressing he projects as high as a number 2 starter. his sinker is flat out nasty and has been compared to that of brandon webb. i hope the mets do throw away their farm system for santana cause just having santana is not going to make the mets world series contenders

You're right on Lester. They broke up his AA innings in a weird way on BaseballCube so it somehow confused me.

As for Duesing and Blackburn, not sold. I don't get BA, but both Rotoworld and BP describe them both as relievers/swing men for 2008. BP has them at three stars with Tyler Robertson ranked higher.

Ok how many world series has jimmy rollins brought to the phillies organization hmmmm a big goose egg 0.... Jeter in the last 7-10 years is the best shortstop and how cant u agree he won 4 world series with the yanks