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What's Next For Oakland?

What's Billy Beane's next move?  He's already traded his team's best pitcher and one of his better hitters.  Let's start with a couple of additional moves brought up by Susan Slusser.

Trade Eric Chavez.  Chavez expects to go, and he was refreshingly candid in his comments.  His contract runs through 2010, and he's willing to waive his no-trade rights.  He's had three surgeries this winter, so he has to prove his health before anyone acquires him.  A big first half would go a long way.

Sign Barry Bonds.  Such a move wouldn't surprise Chavez.  Slusser believes a bargain Bonds chasing 3,000 hits and extending his home run record could be a way to get fans in the park despite a noncompetitive 2008 team.  For $8-10MM, I could see it. 

Other possibilities outside of the two mentioned by Slusser:

Trade Mark Kotsay.  He makes $8MM in '08 and only managed 56 games last year.  Maybe the Braves would take him on in exchange for a nonprospect, if the A's kick in $3MM.

Trade Mark Ellis.  He's signed at $5MM for '08, plays Gold Glove second base defense, and is an above average hitter for his position.  Too bad for the White Sox he didn't get thrown in as part of the Swisher trade.  Outside of the Rockies I don't see many fits for Ellis.

Trade Rich Harden.  Since he has a reasonable $7MM option for 2009, Harden is similar to Chavez and Kotsay in that it makes sense to wait to see if he can build a little value before trading him.

Trade Joe Blanton.  I'd be surprised if this doesn't happen, with Beane adding three or four more of some team's top ten prospects.

Trade Huston Street.  Why not?  He's got three years of service time left, so he should draw a better bounty than Jose Valverde did.  Perhaps Beane can focus on acquiring a good young middle infielder here.

Vets like Bobby Crosby, Alan Embree, and Justin Duchscherer probably shouldn't get too comfortable either.


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Comments

I would like to see the Cubs pickup Blanton or Harden for guys like Marshall, Hart, Gallagher maybe, and EPat. We would probably need to throw in another hitter, but we only have Murton and Cedeno to offer. Pie and Colvin are untouchable until we see how Pie hits in the first couple of months this season.

I could see Ellis and Blanton going very soon in a package, and possibly Kotsay, as you suggest.

But I too think that he will wait on all of Chavez/Harden/Crosby to see if they can get healthy/build up value over the 1st half. If they can, BB might actually be REALLY loaded in the minors. All 3 have All-Star potential if they can ever get healthy.

On Street, he could wait it out with him, and use him on the team to help with the confidence (ie not blowing games for a young team) and also build up his value some after an injury-plagued 2007.

Will be interesting to be sure. But he's already done an awesome job. Rob Neyer's article this morning was very well put.

Billy Beane has probably the most fun job in the world right now. He is getting paid big bucks to run a Keeper team.

If anyone, he should trade Street. Realistically, he is the only player on the list that seems to be able to get a good return. Street could easily get 3 really good prospects.

Murton and Cedeno would both be very good gets for Beane, as he needs a SS/replacement OF, and both are highly undervalued by the Cubs.

I wonder if the Cubs would take a Blanton/Ellis package for those 2 plus a couple pitchers.

Then they wouldn't need to go after Roberts.

I think it would have made sense moving Chavez to the Twins but with the signing of Mike Lamb I doubt that will happen now.

I think it is obvious he should and will deal Street. However, closer to the trade deadline seems like a time when Beane could get a better price.

djskilbr,
Mark Ellis is a fine 2B, but the Cubs are pursuing Roberts because he could bat left handed on a team that is heavily weighted to the right. I also think Beane is seemingly overestimating what he can get for Joe Blanton. He's basically a .500 pitcher so far in a young career.

to me it makes no sense for the A's to sign Bonds and I know he isn't worth it but being the greedy, selfish player he is I don't him signing for less then $14MM.. that is if he gets signed at all

of course it makes sense for the A's to sign Bonds. DH him, put him in left, whatever. People will pay to see him play, asterisk or not. That brings in more revenue for Beane, so that when the team is competitive (2010), they can spend a little extra to get that additional piece.

Susan Slusser is the worst beat writer, let alone sports writer, in the entire Bay Area. Sign Bonds?? Can all of "us" remember that Bonds is the same reason the Giants refused to go young. Trade Harden? With his injuries? For what exactly? Street after two unhealthy seasons? Chavez after three surgeries?

How about Joe Blanton and Mark Ellis for Sean Gallager, Tyler Colvin, and Eric Patterson. You could throw in one of Marshall, Murton, or Cedeno if you have to.

Send Eric Chavez over to the Angels.
I seroiusly doubt it would happen because I'm sure Beane hates us, but still... we could use him, and we've got the prospects

"How about Joe Blanton and Mark Ellis for Sean Gallager, Tyler Colvin, and Eric Patterson. You could throw in one of Marshall, Murton, or Cedeno if you have to."

I like this trade, but I don't really want Ellis. DeRosa is fine unless you get someone in the calibur of Roberts.

Colvin, Gallagher, Cendeno for Blanton?

"I also think Beane is seemingly overestimating what he can get for Joe Blanton. He's basically a .500 pitcher so far in a young career."

Matt Cain is 22-29. W-L records don't do much. Blanton actually had a good year last year, posting a 1.22 WHIP, but I doubt he'll repeat that performance.

"How about Joe Blanton and Mark Ellis for Sean Gallager, Tyler Colvin, and Eric Patterson. You could throw in one of Marshall, Murton, or Cedeno if you have to."

I see where you're coming from, but second base really isnt a need for Chicago. Between Derosa, Patterson, Cedeno and Fontenot there is not reallly a hole at second. The reason the Cubs want Roberts is because he is a fast, lefty leadoff hitter that plays a position where they don't have a star. Considering that, I think the Cubs would prefer to keep Ellis out of the deal if they could get it done without Colvin. If they could get just Blanton for Gallagher, Patterson and Murton, that'd be a solid move.

"Send Eric Chavez over to the Angels.
I seroiusly doubt it would happen because I'm sure Beane hates us, but still... we could use him, and we've got the prospects"

If Reagins offered him enough, Beane would make a deal. I think Billy has definately gotten to the point where he realizes he's not gonna be winning anything short term. So why wouldn't he want to take away long term assets from his opponents to only help them during a period of time during which he wouldn't be winning anyways. If they could get something like Brandon Wood and a prospect for him or Ervin Santana and Erick Aybar then that'd be a brilliant deal for Beane.

Blanton's stats should be a lot better than they are. I dont have time to look it up but I figure there's been at least 7 or 7 occassions he's pitched 8 innings allowed 1-2 runs and taken a loss --- seems that happens everytime the A's play Anaheim.

if Beane could get Wood or Santana or Aybar for Chavez that would be awesome, but I would hate to see Chavez suiting up for the Ahols--I mean Halos, being an Oakland fan in South Orange County...

I would love to give Chavez to the Angels. Put him right behind Vlad and watch Chavvy pop up every single time.

Beane is timing this re-Build move at the perfect time. Arizona is in a "Win Now" mode. White Sox are in a "Desparate to Win" mode. Cubs and Mets will eventually follow a similar path. Brewers feel like they are going to compete (Chavez at 3B at trade deadline?).

The Rockies would be very smart to try to trade for Mark Ellis. He's the most under-rated 2B in the league, and he and Tulo would make the best 2B/SS combo in the MLB.

We (The A's) are gonna suck in 2008 (70 Wins, maybe), but Beane is in the Drivers Seat this offseason (as usual). He knows he's the only GM in a true Re-Build mode, and he's taking full advantage.

"If Reagins offered him enough, Beane would make a deal. I think Billy has definately gotten to the point where he realizes he's not gonna be winning anything short term. So why wouldn't he want to take away long term assets from his opponents to only help them during a period of time during which he wouldn't be winning anyways. If they could get something like Brandon Wood and a prospect for him or Ervin Santana and Erick Aybar then that'd be a brilliant deal for Beane."

I'd personally do Santana and Aybar for him, because 1)Santana is a piece of junk, and he'd get killed in the A's park, and 2) Aybar is basically expendable with the likes of Wood, Izturis, Figgins and Rodriguez all able to play SS.
I think a likely deal though, would be Aybar and a lower pithcer like Marek.
But again, I'd take that deal in a heartbeat.

Santana still has great potential. I don't know why you think the A's park is tougher than the Angels, it is more pitcher friendly if anything. Aybar would be a nice solution for shortstop for awhile. They are both getting pushed out.

Scribbletone beat me to the punch for the 2nd time in the early part of this year...point out to J-Money that winning % doesn't mean a whole hell of a lot. The Cain comparison is a good one, but I was going to bring up the following:

Joe Blanton - 55% winning percentage
Dan Haren - 53% winning percentage

"Santana is a piece of junk, and he'd get killed in the A's park, and 2) Aybar is basically expendable with the likes of Wood, Izturis, Figgins and Rodriguez all able to play SS."

If you havent happened to notice, Beane is the only one doing the raping not the other way around. He doesnt do major trading within the division either, if he wouldnt do a package that netted us Adam Jones, he wont send Eric to the Angels.

Oh...and pitcher W-L is absolutely the most pointless and worthless stat in all of professional sports. If you are still using this as a judge of a pitchers talent then you are from 1960 when pitchers always went 8+, they never do that anymore. Plus you need to have your hitters score runs for you, your relievers keep the lead, etc etc how is that a personal stat? Worst. Stat. Ever....

If the angels want oaklands trash then fantastic if the a's could get brandon wood and a prospect for chavez then do it. Blanton is going to bring in a boatload of talent after santana goes to nyanks the mets are goiing to pay out of the back end if you know what i mean. No way minaya sticks with what they have now he'd be crucified.

hasn't anyone read moneyball!
damn, Beane is doing now what he always has! steal teams futures because those teams are too stupid and undervalue their own farm system!

Bobby Crosby sucks. GM's would be f'in nuts to give anything of value for that guy.

Trade Blanton, trade Kotsay, hold onto Street, Chavez, and Harden. Only deal Ellis if you get a good deal. Cut Crosby and Dan Johnson if you can't deal them.

Blanton- Can get some good prospects for him that should be coming into their own about the same time as the other 9 guys the A's have already picked up.

Kotsay- Serves no purpose on the team, is always injured, and costs too much.

Chavez- Clubhouse leader, great defender, Beane loves him personally, his stock is very low right now, so no need to sell low.

Street- Need a stopgap at closer and he's cheap. Losing close games or games you battled back to win can kill a young team's confidence. With a very good bullpen, maybe the A's can get the young position players to play above their heads and excellerate their growth.

Ellis- Same as Chavez. One of the more underrated 2b's in the game and the A's don't really have anyone to replace him right now.

Crosby/Johnson- Their fans hate them, they play below their ability, are just average-bad baseball players and only take ABs away from players who are in the A's future.

Almost forgot... Hold on Harden, if he's hurt- no team will deal for him. if he's healthy- he is a steal at only $7M and he provides a bad team a #1 starter.

The A's are timing their run for two years down the road when their young prospects should be developing at the same time much the way the A's did it before when Giambi was rounding into an MVP candidate and Chavez, Tejada, Hudson, Mulder, Zito, and Hernandez were all coming up about the same time.

Dealing these guys now adds $$$ for the future to take on vets with a few years left on their deals, or high ceiling players who need a change of scenery like Damon, Dye, and Izzy.

As long as Beane hits on 5 of the 9 guys he got for Haren and Swisher the A's will be loaded in '10. And the fans who don't run b/c there are some hard times ahead will have the privilege of watching these players grow just as we did in '98.

What do you guys think of the SF Giants going after Eric Chaves to fill in their hole at 3rd base? He only has 3 years and $33 million on his current contract. The A's could throw in $3 million/year and the Giants would send over P Jonathan Sanchez and another young pitching prospect in return. Does this scenario seem fair? The Giants would then have a power hitter to stick in the middle of their lineup and also GOOD overall 3rd baseman to fill the hot corner until Angel Villalona is ready in 2011 or 2012.

"Oh...and pitcher W-L is absolutely the most pointless and worthless stat in all of professional sports. If you are still using this as a judge of a pitchers talent then you are from 1960 when pitchers always went 8+, they never do that anymore. Plus you need to have your hitters score runs for you, your relievers keep the lead, etc etc how is that a personal stat? Worst. Stat. Ever...."

If you knew anything about Ervin Santana, you'd be agreeing with me right now. The guy is a complete headcase... he's got no confidence, and he can't win on the road. He is literally almost incapable of pitching a good game and winning when he's on the road. he's the next ramon ortiz.

I would love the Cubs to pursue Harden. we could get a cut rate deal for him by sending Murton (or Cedeno)and Marshall over for the injury Plagued Right hander. If he were our 4th/5th starter I'd feel great about 08'.

"No way minaya sticks with what they have now he'd be crucified."

He would be crucified more if he traded for an overweight innings eater who has had marginal success throwing in a pitchers park.

I think this is the 4th straight off season that the Mets rotation, and the help you get pitching at Shea will be underestimated. I am fine with Pedro/Maine/Ollie/Duque/one of the kids. We would use a fine innings eater, which Blanton is, but it isnt necesarry to give up your best prospects for him. Livan could put up close enough numbers to warrant keeping your kids around.

"I also think Beane is seemingly overestimating what he can get for Joe Blanton. He's basically a .500 pitcher so far in a young career."

"Single season won-lost records have almost no value as an indicator of a pitcher's contribution to a team." - Bill James

"but I would hate to see Chavez suiting up for the Ahols--I mean Halos, being an Oakland fan in South Orange County..."

Well said brother.

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