Latest Johan Santana Rumors

UPDATE, 1-2-08 at 10:45pm: Nothing new with Boston's pursuit of Santana; Nick Cafardo says the Sox still have two different offers on the table for the Twins.  Cafardo notes that Santana's agent quoted the starting bid around seven years, $140MM - and the Red Sox are fine with that. 

UPDATE, 1-2-08 at 4:19pm: LEN3 adds that the Mariners are not in the running for Johan.  Coupled with the info below it seems to be between the Mets and Red Sox currently.

FROM 1-2-08 at 1:21pm:

Peter Abraham had a note this morning about Johan Santana.  He says "there are no indications the Yankees will suddenly get back into the mix for Santana."  Abraham notes that the main issue for the Yanks remains the massive extension they'd have to give Santana.

Back on December 28th Joel Sherman said the Yanks had "become more entrenched in their unwillingness to pay the price both in prospects and dollars."  He noted that they were reluctant to hand over Phil Hughes or $130MM to Johan.

On the 27th, Jayson Stark said the Yankees last offer was Hughes, Melky Cabrera, Jeff Marquez, and an undetermined fourth player, but the proposal was off the table.  Stark believed that Hank Steinbrenner could still decide to re-engage the Santana talks though.

Comments

[MagikLair]

When has money mattered in the past... You can say the prospects you'd have to give up to get Santana, but money?

[Bleacher_Buddha]

Wasnt this the same guy who said we wont re-sign alex rodriguez if he opts out of his contract? Its partially their fault that these players get these contracts..

All I have to say is I guess we will wait and see.

[hawkeyes12990]

actually...the yankees have been reluctant because of the money- they would want to trade matsui and his contract before they tried to acquire santana and sign him to an extension
i think what i just said was in a post before

[04Forever]

i never thought id hear a deal of the yanks to go south by a matter of money. i find it both funny and sad at the same time, the irony of it is funny and its sad because it shows the contracts are just getting out of control. thank you barry zito, you are the proof of the beginning of the end.

it does make sense to say the yanks are financially hurt after this year, they overpaid for 4 players, now the kitty is almost empty and they dont have enough to make the deal they shouldve made, a player to build a team around, with arod of course (love him or hate him). tch tch tch yankees, the point is to overpay for the right players, not all of them

[thebenjamin]

This is just dumb. When Santana's extension money is finally paid to him in 2009, Abreau, Pettite, Mussina, and Damon as well as Farnsworth will be off the books, freeing up enough salary for Santana.

[levelboss]

"i never thought id hear a deal of the yanks to go south by a matter of money.. now the kitty is almost empty.."

i don't think it's a case of the kitty being empty at all; the Yankees have been paying the luxury tax for years

i think the reluctance of not overpaying or being more cautious with the big contracts has more to do with the Yankees letting Cashman do his thing, not to mention that Uncle George is not calling the shots any more

the difference these past couple of years imho is that Cashman was finally allowed a bit more control as general manager, and i think he's a lot more prudent and frugal (in a relative sense) with money and young players

(if this was vintage George, then Santana would already have had his press conference showing off the pinstripes)

[04Forever]

8 million additional dollars per year in luxury taxes wouldnt be an easy pill to swallow over a six year contract extension, even for the yanks.

$48 million dollars in tax just for santana + $160 mil contract, if there lucky = stupid

$23 mil in lux tax already is alot already, 7 more mil is a pretty big pill

[levelboss]

"$23 mil in lux tax already is alot already, 7 more mil is a pretty big pill"

of course that's a lot of money.. but i think the Yankees could afford it if they wanted to

as i mentioned before, i think the cautious approach now has more to do with Cashman (and Hank)'s prudent finances and appreciation for the young players

the 'spend-a-lot-of-money-and-mortgage-the-young players' approach is the old school George/new Red Sox approach.. imho

[04Forever]

levelboss

http://www.bgassociates.com/images/GMDC%20TOUCHE.jpg

[levelboss]

lol

well, what can you say? i think Boston's new approach (starting with Dice-K's $51MM posting fee last year) is very aggressive.. and the reason i mention the 'mortgage-the-young players' part is because Jacoby Ellsbury and Jon Lester are still on the table (though in different packages i think)

Boston's approach of late really does remind me of vintage Uncle George

[chinnis]

So the Yankees will give A-Bomb a $275 contract with incentives but they won't give the best pitcher in the game (Santana), a $160 contract? I doubt it's the money.

[quintjs]

The money thing would be more believable if they didn't overpay for A-Rod, Posada and Rivera.

They could have gotten each of them for far less.

levelboss, Ellsbury and Lester are on the table, but not together, its one or the other, and its not really Ellsbury because the Lester package is better (RS did this on purpose)

But the Sox are not risking the future, Beckett 27, Matsuzaka 27, they are not going all out to get a 35 yr old guys here, its young talent

But anyway.. Pedroia, Papelbon, Delcarman, Buchholz.. there is plenty left over..

They money for Santana (starting in 2009) is no more than they paid for Clemens anyway.

[inthecards]

Who is this Johan Santana? I haven't heard anything about this guy on this site.

[nrmax88]

"So the Yankees will give A-Bomb a $275 contract with incentives but they won't give the best pitcher in the game (Santana), a $160 contract?"

Whats your point. I think most people would rather have A-rod and his contract then have Santana at 7/140. Atleast I know I would, and I wouldnt even have to think about it. It isnt the money its the years. I dont think any team (meaning the teams who could actually afford him) would have an issue giving Santana a 4/90 85 deal, or 5/110, but the 7 or 8 years is killer. Especially when they would be his age 36 and 37 seasons I believe.

[nrmax88]

4/90 or 85**

[jnr98]

Giambi's contract also disappears, thankfully, after this year, minus a $5M buyout (IIRC).

Also, with the ongoing construction of the new Yankee Stadium, the Yanks can avoid paying revenue sharing (again, IIRC) during the construction period. That will certain save a few bucks.

[chinnis]

So you would rather have a great hitter that a great pitcher? And that what i said it can't be the money if they gave A-Rod that kind of money. It has to be the prospects.

[brucieeb]

according to experts arods contract will pay for itself over the entire 10 yrs,a very rare occurance.experts say that arod will bring in an extra 450 million over ten years,his entire contract that would not be there if he was not on the team with merchandise,fans,tv and so on.with luxury tax included and using 300 million dollars it will cost the yankees 420 million for arod over ten years.so basically they get arod for free for ten years with money left over,that wouldn't be the case with santanna.santanna is to risky for 6 or 7 years,his numbers can't get better.phil hughes i think will have about a 4.0 era so you are going to gain a half a run every 5 days if you trade for santanna,maybe a tad more and hughes gets better in 09 and further,not worth it and if santanna gets hurt it's over.

[Bleacher_Buddha]

Its not the per season $$ that is the issue its the number of years. Teams are very leary of 7 year deals on pitchers. Espcially a power pitcher.

I think if he isn't going to get 7-140 year deal he wants but I can see a 5-100 or 110 with a team option for the 6th year at probably 25M with a 5M+ buyout? Then he is what 34-35 when he can get his next payday?

I bet the Twins offer him 5-100 extension before they trade him. They they only have 1 year of his big contract before they move to the new stadium.

Then in 09 with Lirano fully recovered I think they will be strong contenders in the Central. Just in time for the new stadium season ticket sales and advertising sales.

[djskilbr]

Johan is a "power" pitcher? Since when?

I would much prefer Johan to ARod.

And yes, I too think the Twins will still make a final push to sign him. If they got a real CF (Lofton or Cameron) and kept Johan, they're contenders right NOW with Liriano back this year.

[chinnis]

How do you know that A-Rod doesn't have a injury and is out for a season? Would he still pay for himself. I doubt it. You can add it up however you want but the Yankees will still be paying the man $275 over 10 years.

[bsox21]

SOMEONE SNIPE JOHAN PLEASE! JUS POP, RIGHT IN THE CHEST.

AAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!

In my dreams, the Royals acquire Johan for Gordon, Hochevar and a B prospect, and then turn Dejesus and Butler into Manny Ramirez and win the central.

I'm a Mets fan, but this would be cool.

Johan, Meche, Greinke, whatever whatever.....

Dont say bannister. he sucks. his WHIP and BABIP are going to blow up in his face and he'll be in triple A by the end of May.

[nrmax88]

"So you would rather have a great hitter that a great pitcher? And that what i said it can't be the money if they gave A-Rod that kind of money. It has to be the prospects."

Wow, umm, no. I said I would take A-rod and his contract over Johan for 7/140, or any pitcher in the history of baseball at 7/140 through their 29-36 years. It just is so risky. And giving Arod 25 mil per over 10 years and giving Santana 20 mil per ofver 7 years is not the same thing. The yankees know this. Johans contract would be far more risky.

Chinnis, youre absolutely right, if A-Rod gets hurt then yeah, that sucks. But the fact is that Johan is a pitcher and is just more likely to get hurt then a guy playing 3B. Its just the way it is. There is risk in signing any player too a big deal because they could get injured. You have to weigh the risks though and pitchers are more risky. Thats why hitters pretty much always have the bigger contracts.

[nrmax88]

djs... point take on Johan. But still, I consider him a power pitcher. Would you call him a finesse guy? I mean he happens to have great location and an amazing change, but he still has a power repetoire. Pedro Martinez was a power guy, but that doesnt mean he couldnt finesse you. But I see would youre saying, Johan would be an all star pitcher even if he topped out at 89.

[bsox21]

nrmax,

all points agreed. good stuff.

no doubt, johan is a power pitcher.

now someone snipe johan please.

[MEddler]

One thing Cerrone talks about on Metsblog that I'd never really thought of until this year is the cost of insuring a big contract. For a guy like A-Rod, its not completely unreasonable, because an everyday position player doesn't present the same risks and volatility as an SP. But for a pitcher making $20 million per year over 7 years, a contract is virtually impossible to insure, and even if it were, it would essentially drive the cost of the player up an extra $5-10 million per season. Combine that with the luxury tax in the case of Yanks and Sox and you'd be legitimately spending $35-40 million per year on one player.

[MEddler]

Yes, the Yankees may have a virtually bottomless pit of money, but taking on the two biggest contracts in the history of baseball (for Johan its relative as an SP) in one offseason is a little excessive, even for the Steinbrenners.

[djskilbr]

Ya, he has a good fastball, but no way would I consider him a "power" pitcher. As you just said nrmax, Johan would still be an ace topping out at 89. His best pitch is his changeup, the best in baseball. And the reason he wasn't as effective last year is because he had finger/blister issues and couldn't use his 3rd quality pitch, his slider. His stuff just isn't "power" oriented to me. He's more Maddux than Randy Johnson. That's all I'm saying. A power guy to me has to consistently top 95-96 MPH with his fastball, and that's not Johan these days. That's all.

A small quibble.

[bsox21]

djsk,

he's a power pitcher with control. that's all.

he's both a power pitcher and control pitcher....that's why he's johan....that's why there are 24353245245 posts about him everyday on every teams blog jus for the thot of him being dealt.

he is mid 90s consistently.

[MEddler]

I think its more important to consider his delivery in this context. Sure, he may not feature the power repertoire of Randy Johnson, but he also doesn't have the smoothest, most fluid mechanics I've ever seen. Tom Glavine is a good comparison on the finesse side of mechanics, very smooth a fluid, and Jake Peavy is a good comp for the power side, in that he maxes out his effort on every pitch, resulting in a somewhat jerky, violent looking delivery.

I wouldn't say Johan is entirely on the power side mechanics wise, but he definitely leans that way. It doesn't necessarily mean he'll be more prone to arm injury, but I think this is a more important facet of pitching to consider here than whether he touches 96 MPH all the time an relies entirely on his fastball.

[djskilbr]

Johan's mechanics are actually pretty smooth, and he hides the ball extremely well. That's actually probably what makes him most effective; hitters have no idea if it's a changeup, fastball, or slider coming. His motion is virtually the same.

What makes him good on the health front is that his workouts are legendary and he is as good of an ATHLETE as any pitcher going right now. That's why he's been so durable.

But no he does not consistently reach mid-90's anymore. More like 92-93, which again, isn't a power pitcher to me.

[Rich]

I don't think that any of the linked reports adds anything substantive to what we already know.

The Yankees may or may not have interest in Santana.

No one has any sourced report to debunk that statement.

[MEddler]

I went and watched some video, and your right, he is a bit smoother than I thought, but I'm sticking to my guns. His delivery is more power oriented than finesse oriented, but its close enough that he's able to manage both quite well. I do remember watching him in previous years and seeing his arm recoil a lot more on follow through, but that seems to have decreased.

There's still plenty of explosion in his delivery now though. There are a few big indicators, but the most trademark and telling one is how low he gets on his back leg as his front leg starts to lead him forward. It really allows him to explode off that back leg and whip his whole body forward.

You look at a guy like Tom Glavine, and you see a fairly similar delivery until they reach the peak of their leg lift. Where Santana gets down on his back leg and explodes forward, Glavine stands up tall, and uses his moment to fall on his front leg and bring the rest of his body forward.

A common misconception about pitching is that power comes from your arms. Power comes from your legs and your hips primarily. Your arms just bear the brunt of the punishment in what is essentially an unnatural motion.

Santana's intent in his delivery is clearly power-oriented. It makes his outstanding changeup doubly effective when hitters see him jump out at them with what they can only assume will be a good deal of force. But its also creating more stresses on his arm than a a lot of the finesse guys who last into their 40s like Tom Glavine and Jamie Moyer ever had to deal with.

Even without any injury history, a smallish pitcher with power mechanics is always going to generate some mild concern. Pedro heard it his whole early career and tore his rotator cuff before he was 30, despite being arguably the most dominant pitcher of the steriod era throughout his 20s. Santana is a bit bigger than Pedro, and more importantly leaner and broader shouldered. But this is where the concerns about him being a "power pitcher" come in.

Power is not necessarily about the MPH when your talking about a pitcher's durability, its what the rest of his body is making his arm do. In this sense, Santana qualifies as a power pitcher. He's using his lower body to create more stresses on his arm and thus more velocity on his fastball, deception on his changeup, and velocity and/or movement on his slider.

[djskilbr]

I guess this is just a philosophical debate then. I still don't see Johan as a power pitcher. To me power pitching is about blowing people away or pitching with high velocity rather than being a pitcher based more on selection, deception, control, etc. To me, while Johan has some velocity, he fits the latter better.

Also, stress on one's arm is also about pitch selection. Fastballs and changeups are the two easiest pitches to throw as far as wear on a pitcher's arm. Johan has pitched almost exclusively with those 2 pitches throughout his career, mixing up a slider here and there. Plus, as you point out, he has extremely powerful legs due to his workout routines. Pedro isn't really a good comparison for Johan at all build-wise. Johan is short, yes, but otherwise, there's nothing "small" about him. He's very fit and muscular compared to most pitchers.

Also, before anyone points out his innings count as some sort of indicator of future injury, stop now. Yes, his innings are high because he almost never has to leave a start early, but he has been an incredibly efficient pitcher over his career. Gardenhire and Rick Anderson have rarely let him go much above 100 pitches at all, and in fact, his highest total, by far, was a 120 pitch game over 2 years ago. His inning total shouldn't concern anyone.

In the end, I guess we just will have to disagree on what a "power" pitcher is. I don't see it in Johan. I might label him as having an "explosive" delivery or something (though it's still more smooth to me than explosive) but I wouldn't call him a power pitcher based on that.

We'll just have to agree to disagree I suppose. Nice little debate though.

[MEddler]

I don't even agree to disagree, his primary weapon in terms of strategy probably isn't power, you're absolutely right about that. Its speed change and deception. But the debate came up in the context of what a seven year deal for a power pitcher would be. To me, its more important if he uses power-style mechanics in this case than whether he hits triple digits. If we were going to talk about whether a certain hitter could get around on his fastball, I'd tend to take a more similar approach to the one you take here. But in the context of a longterm contract, I'm more interested in what a pitcher's doing to his arm than what his arm is doing to the ball, especially with such a proven commodity as Santana.

I'm also not saying he's a huge injury risk or anything, but there's more risk there than a guy like Glavine at age 29. Pedro was certainly a riskier hurler in his 20s, but its not like Santana dwarfs him. 6' and around 200 lbs is fairly small for a pitcher in his late 20s. He's more athletic than Pedro was at that age, and his shoulders appear more durable, but he'll be hard pressed to pitch effectively into his 40s and maybe even late 30s with the delivery he currently employs.

I also don't agree that fastballs and changeups are easier on the arm. In younger pitchers with underdeveloped arms you have to be careful about the stress a breaking ball puts on the elbow, but its generating extra arm speed that tends to put stress on the shoulder and cause longterm damage in fully developed arms. The changeup may feature less velocity, but this isn't due to decreased arm speed so much as the grip and release of the ball. The stresses on the shoulder still take place, which is what makes it so deceptive.

[kdub]

Now that the M's and Yanks are out does anyone think the Dodgers might try trading for Santana? They have the players & money to get it done.

[djskilbr]

Meddler, I read it as more of a question of whether he would still be effective 6-7 years down the road being a "power pitcher." To me, that answer is a resounding yes. Because he will probably lose another 2-3 mph of velocity over that time, but he's already lost 1-2 mph and it hasn't phased him. Power isn't his game; control, deception, thinking are.

I think we've just read this one differently. I still wouldn't worry about his mechanics at all over that span either. His mechanics are some of the more "smooth" mechanics in the game right now to me.

As for fastballs/changeups, I guess we'll have to disagree there too, which is fine. To me it's all about stress on the elbow/shoulder, and those pitches do put less stress on those joints based on the motion used. Basically because the fastball/changeup are less UNnatural than other pitches, like a slider or curveball. Every pitch is really an unnatural motion-it's not something God intended our bodies to do; we seem to agree on that.

[Pseudofool]

I seriously doubt the Yankees are out. Smoke and mirrors. Why would any team publicly show their hand by stating their desire to obtain Johan? There's plenty of reason to state that your team isn't after a player, but not vise-versa.

[MEddler]

Fair enough, I can agree to disagree on all of that. Again, I don't think Santana has a particularly high risk of injury, but there's always a chance. The way I see it, each just has a certain probability that they'll stay healthy or get injured. Santana is probably on the more durable end of this spectrum. But his mechanics and size would be enough to raise an eyebrow for me.

And I absolutely agree breaking balls are rougher on the elbow, but I look at the real "power" guys, guys you'd probably call power guys, and I'd have a tough time giving any of them a seven year deal. Take Carlos Zambrano for example. His resume is clearly superior to Barry Zito, yet no one would have been willing to give him seven years. All the max effort fastballs he throws wear down his shoulder more than all of Barry Zito's curves do on his elbow. Zito may not retain his effectiveness, but I don't see him as a huge injury risk. With Zambrano, he's already shown some signs of shoulder stress. His arm angle and follow through have subtley changed over the years, and it lead to his uneven 2007 performance. There's a good article on him over at the Bullpen Mechanics secion at the Baseball Think Factory (which hasn't been updated in ages, a fact I'm none too pleased about). There's a good one there on Peavy too, really explains how he maxes out his effort on every pitch, and why he's already been a bit volatile and something of an injury risk so early in his career.

Anyway, really I'm nit picking. You don't find any combination of pitching ability, intelligence, and durability like Santana in the game today. But no one's perfect, and of the three of those, durability would be the first one I'd question given everything we've discussed.

[Yu Hsing Chen]

I think it's more of a stall tactic by the Yanks. they're pretty much just trying to play a poker game here hoping for one of 3 outcomes.

a.Twins drop the ball and lower the price significantly

b.Boston drops the ball and throw out a mega package

c.Santana drops the ball and use his NTC.

either one of these outcome is pretty favorable. and Boston really don't look as serious as they sound anyway. while the Yanks wouldn't really mind seeing Santana go to the NL.

[walkoffblast]

I agree that 7 years for any pitcher is crazy but we are talking about a ten mil a year difference for a contract that ends at age 36 as opposed to 43. Arod at 30+ mil for 3+ years in his 40s seems at least equally crazy. The Arod deal is not going to look like a bargain anytime soon while such a Santana deal could look like a bargain as soon as next winter.

[04Forever]

one horse race basically. sox have two deals on the table and nobody else has one, a month later nothing has changed.

[Andrew]

walkoff - A-Rod will earn in excess of 30 million only in the beginning years, where he is as likely as anyone to be putting up MVP numbers. The last two years of the deal have him earning 20 million, which may very well be a bargain, especially with the way contracts are looking now.

Plus, they've locked up a guy who may very well be looked at as one of the very best players in the history of the game, and they've guaranteed he'll be remembered as a Yankee. There is a metric ton of value in that.

[djskilbr]

I really think that Johan is either going to end up in Boston, or end up in MN. Those are the only two outcomes I see at this point. MN wants to contend now, so the Mets don't work, because they have no package that offers them immediate returns. Gomez is not a sure thing and is not completely ready, and Mulvey/Pelfrey are pretty much the same. Guerra and Martinez have more potential but they're about 2 years away each at least.

Then you have the Yanks, and I'm sorry, I just don't see the Sox letting them trump them. The Sox know that they don't "need" Santana but they also know that the Yanks do, and that they can offer better packages than the Yanks can. No way will they let the Yanks make a move to try to even the field in the rivalry when they can easily stop them and REALLY dominate NY.

So in my mind it's either going to be the Twins making a final push and re-signing him, with the new ballpark coming, and thoughts of a dominant, dominant 1-2 in Johan-Cisco at the top, or they will not be able to and Boston will win the day with some combo of the Ellsbury/Lester packages. Either they'll sweeten their offer a bit on one or the other, or the Twins will add something else to the pot and they will get both Ellsbury and Lester in return. As seems to be indicated in that recent article.

Gonna be interesting, but that's the way I see it personally.

[nrmax88]

"The Arod deal is not going to look like a bargain anytime soon while such a Santana deal could look like a bargain as soon as next winter. "

Umm, what are you talking about? Why do you feel that way? You could atleast explain, because lots of people probably disagree. If Johan and A-Rod both keep producing close to their career averages for the duration of their contracts, how can you say that Johan will be a bargain and A-Rod wont? Seriously? I just dont understand why you say that. Considering one is a pitcher and one if an everyday player, they would be pretty much equal contracts with all things considered.

[nrmax88]

I would love to see Johan resign in Minnesota, and for the Twins to get matched up in a series with Toronto in the playoffs. Think of the matchups.

Santana vs Halladay
Liriano vs Burnett
Bkaer vs Mcgowan

etc.

Would be awesome to watch.

Its funny djs, because it would seem with Santana on the Twins at the very least they would compete because they would have a great chance to win at the very least 40 percent of the time with the 2 southpaws taking the hill, and with a core of Morneau, Mauer, Cuddyer, Young they should be better offensively then last year. And we know they have the pen. The ALC is very interesting, lots of good teams, even CWS are only a year removed from a 90 win year.

It really does seem like the Twins would get the most value out of just giving Santana a 4/90 deal or something, because teams seem reluctant to sell their farms, knowing they will have to hand out the biggest contract ever for a pitcher. And like you said djs, Santana and Liriano is simply as good as it gets for a 1/2 punch.

[djskilbr]

Ya, IF the Twins signed just an average CF (ie Lofton or Cameron) this season, and got average offensive production from everyone, plus a step up from Young (I think most of us expect that) they figure to score about 800 runs next season, which is actually in line with Cleveland's lineup and a HUGE step up from the last few years for them. With that staff/bullpen, that should be more than enough to be competitive.

I really don't get giving Johan up. The money is there for him too. The Twins are still roughly $15-20 M under budget for this season currently (after projected raises), and that figure is only going to go up next year and especially in 2010 when the new ballpark opens. Without Torii in the fold, they have more than enough money to extend Johan, especially if they deal Joe Nathan.

I don't get it. Extending him is still their best option, and that team has as good a shot as anyone against the mighty Sox.