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« Mets Pitching Plans | Main | Odds and Ends: Hillenbrand, Tsao, Uehara »
Yu Darvish is a 21 year-old Iranian-Japanese starter for the Nippon Ham Fighters. Darvish backs up his celebrity status as perhaps Japan's best pitcher. His Wikipedia page is a good read.
Today, East Windup Chronicle speaks of a thirdhand report indicating the Yankees' intent to acquire Darvish after the 2008 season. Apparently the Dodgers, Mets, and Cubs are on his trail as well. According to the report, Daisuke Matsuzaka's $8.6MM salary would be the floor with Darvish. And I'm guessing his posting fee would easily exceed Dice-K's $51.1MM.
Two huge questions remain. Are the Fighters actually considering posting Darvish after the '08 season? The loss of such a popular player would be a huge hit for Japanese baseball. Also, does Darvish even want to play in the U.S.?
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If the Ham Fighters can gauge what they would get as a posting fee, it would make their decision. What if the Yankees offered something like $80M to post and $60M/5yrs to Darvish for the contract? Hard to believe the team would pass that up.
Posted by: JD | January 01, 2008 at 12:51 PM
does anyone have a scouting report, how hard he throws, what pitches, which ones are plus plus?
Posted by: dewallace | January 01, 2008 at 12:59 PM
I'd like to see a scouting report on him as well.
he's been scouted by the Angels and Braves since he was in junior high... that's nuts.
Posted by: bseballcrzy17 | January 01, 2008 at 01:06 PM
Here is the site that I use for most of the Japanese pitchers coming over.
http://eastwindupchronicle.com/?p=151
He is one of the laston it. He stats don't look super great and it seems like he is a HUGE superstar over in Japan. I don't think he would get too much love in the US especially in New York and if he doesn't translate well.
Posted by: Barroid_Bonds | January 01, 2008 at 01:16 PM
6'5" and 185 lbs.. somebody get him a sandwich!
Posted by: levelboss | January 01, 2008 at 01:39 PM
The stats on that page were mid-season, Barroid. His full 2007 season stats on the wiki page are pretty much the definition of "super great" especially considering that he turned 21 on August 16. Also, note that he's pithing in the Pacific League, which I believe is the DH league in Japan and generally considered the tougher of the two Japanese major leagues. We'd be pretty excited about a 21 year old who put up a line like that in AA, wouldn't we?
Anyway, the other thing I'd like to know more about is his team's finances. They control this kid for another six years, and he's clearly a huge draw for them. They'd probably never have to pay him more than about $4M a year until he reaches free agency. It's not outside of the realm of possibility that he's worth more to them than a record posting fee. I'd be pretty surprised if they posted him next fall.
Posted by: mac_1103 | January 01, 2008 at 01:41 PM
Barroid, you don't know what you're talking about. He's only 21 and he DOMINATED the league he's in. He won their version of the Cy Young. He made 26 starts, had 12 CGs, threw 207 innings, only gave up 123 hits (!), struck out 210, and had an ERA of 1.82. And he's just a kid. He's ten times the prospect that Matsuzaka was. Every team in baseball would want this guy. If he's posted now, at this age, forget it -- the price will be unbelievable.
Posted by: baileywalk | January 01, 2008 at 01:43 PM
Look at video of him on you tube. His slider is the sickest pitch I've ever seen. He only throws about 93 MPH (if my math is correct converting kilometers to miles). However, he'll be turning 23 in '08, that's the age of a colledge draft pick. I'd easily be willing to bid close to 100MM just to get the chance to sign him.
Posted by: C-Gouds' UltimateBaseball | January 01, 2008 at 01:44 PM
They would be dumb to post him next year. The posting fee would be ridiculous as the Yank and Red Sox would most likely hit $100 million. The Japanese team would make a ton of money, but look at the kid....he's literally a superstar. He's like the Paris Hilton of baseball over there, except he actually has talent and he's dominating. He also said in that article that he has no intention of leaving Japan as of right now.
If the Japanese teamw ere smart they'd hold onto him for a couple more years and then post him when he's about 25 or 26. They'll still make a fortune, they'll keep him in Japan for another good 4 years, and he will still be a huge hot commodity in the MLB. Win-win situation.
Posted by: epic | January 01, 2008 at 01:52 PM
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gqul1GyK7-g&NR=1
he looks pretty good, but he won't come over for another 5 years
Posted by: dewallace | January 01, 2008 at 02:00 PM
"Since Daisuke Matsuzaka signed for the Boston Red Sox and left Japan for the United States of America, attention has been focused on Yu Darvish to help keep up the popularity of baseball in Japan. As a young star in Japanese baseball Darvish is expected to fill the void left by Matsuzaka’s departure. Unlike Matsuzaka, Darvish has told the Japanese press that he has no intention of seeking a move to America anytime in the future."
-From his wikipedia page.
Posted by: TNS | January 01, 2008 at 02:16 PM
We'll see how his intentions change when he gets a chance at making 15 mil a year.
Posted by: nrmax88 | January 01, 2008 at 02:28 PM
"The ratios are nothing to get excited about, especially the K/BB mark of 1.80, which illustrates the biggest problem with the young man's game. He features a fastball in the low to mid 90s, which he can locate in all the zones. His slider and curve are both plus pitches, but he can't always put them in a good spot. While the fastball is live, the breaking pitches are occasionally wild. When he's missing the breaking stuff, he gives up walks. If he relies too heavily on the fastball to make up for his poor control with the offspeed pitches, he gets hit. Once Darvish is consistently able to hit his spots and throw strikes with the breaking balls, he will be on top of the world. He's that good. Recently, Trey Hillman said that he believed that Darvish is ahead of where Matsuzaka was at 20. He thinks Darvish may one day be better than the Red Sox new ace. I don't completely agree with that, although I think he would make a fine #1 pitcher in the Majors too, given a bit more refinement and experience."
from his youtube vid he looks like he has a fastball close to the effectiveness of dice k's, maybe even better control of it. his slider is nasty, randy johnson esque. thats a pretty bad curveball though
Posted by: metsrule08 | January 01, 2008 at 02:50 PM
I'd love to see this happen, as I drafted Darvish in a fantasty league last year and stashed him in minor leagues. Here is a write up from an espn.com article from last February:
"Yu Darvish, P
Hokkaido Nippon Ham Fighters
6-4, 175 pounds, age 20
He won the clinching fifth game of the 2006 Japan Series and was MVP of the 2006 Konami Cup Asia Series (a tournament featuring the club champions from Japan, Taiwan and Korea, and the Chinese national team). Tall and thin, with matinee idol good looks, he's extremely marketable. Add to that the fact that he features a low- to mid-90s fastball, a plus curve and seems, even at a very young age, to be utterly unflappable, and you have (if he's posted) the next big bidding war."
The kid has good, powerful stuff, he's entering his prime years, and he's performed well on a big stage. That's why I went for him, and why I think he'll be a success if he comes across the Pacific. I just hope he'd land somewhere other than the Yanks, as I'd hate to see that.
Posted by: gatling | January 01, 2008 at 02:51 PM
Here is the link to the article I quoted, good info on some other potential MLB guys over in Japan, including a lot of them discussed this offseason.
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/asia/columns/story?columnist=neel_eric&id=2766756
Posted by: gatling | January 01, 2008 at 02:53 PM
watching that video he ran it up to about 95 with the fastball. looks like he's about 92-95 with a NASTY slider and what looks like a filthy changeup. would be nice to see what he could do considering Dice-K's so-so showing...
Posted by: junbun | January 01, 2008 at 02:56 PM
last offseason the Red Sox were torched by everyone, especially Yankee fans, for selling out 51 million to talk to Dice K. NOw all of a sudden its a great investment to throw more then that to talk to this guy. Can you say hypocrites??
Posted by: curse_ended | January 01, 2008 at 05:04 PM
Nobody anticipated Matsuzaka's actual contract to be so reasonable though. The total amount they ended up spending was about on par with what it was anticipated he could receive, although half of it was not subject to the luxury tax. It ended up being a solid investment, primarily because the Red Sox had Boras by the balls and he knew it. That's why opinions have changed.
Posted by: achilles17 | January 01, 2008 at 05:24 PM
His blood type is A.
Posted by: thecubsdontcatchtheball | January 01, 2008 at 05:29 PM
"His blood type is A."
I thot that was a v funny post. Back to my point...
I predicted Matsuzaka would be vazquez on this board last year, and if u look at the numbers, i made a pretty damn good prediction.
my prediction for darvish is john maine. They are the same pitcher.
Posted by: bsox21 | January 01, 2008 at 06:40 PM
"my prediction for darvish is john maine."
I guess that means he should probably just stay in Japan.
Posted by: themfightnwords | January 01, 2008 at 07:08 PM
Darvish keeps a blog, sorta:
http://darvish-yu.jp/en/fromdarvish.html
Posted by: romansempire | January 01, 2008 at 08:59 PM
metsrule08i dont know what your are talking about... chek it out, his 2007 k/bb ratio was more like 4/1 not 1.8....
i can see a good pitcher in that video.... i dont know about the numbers.... in that video there is something that stands out above all things.... that strike zone in japan is HUUUUGGGEEEE
Posted by: gemf89 | January 01, 2008 at 10:20 PM
i also like the delivery a lot.... its not quite like the other japanese pitchers that have come here... it's more fluid
Posted by: gemf89 | January 01, 2008 at 10:22 PM
gem, his delivery looks fluid because they ain't 6-5 tall and lanky. Tomo ohka and okajima don't look so fluid do they? They ain't half persian who scored himself a 19 yo jap "idol" aka starlet and got her pregnant either.
He recently "renounced" his iranian citizenship and declared himself Japanese. See what money does? even a guy with a rich sugar daddy from an "axis of evil" can play baseball in Japan, one of the most xenophobic yet industrialized country in the history of mankind. His dad probably flew in, bought a jap wife (probably loved his money too) and used benjamins as his fingerprint when he passed custom. Ain't this a ball?
Posted by: Hanky the Wanker | January 01, 2008 at 11:24 PM
Oh... unless he is randy johnson- he doesn't look like he will be durable. Body built is like a tall Kei Igawa. not that I am comparing their stuff.
Posted by: Hanky the Wanker | January 01, 2008 at 11:27 PM
There's little chance Darvish gets moved over here anytime soon. The Fighters aren't one of the clubs in dire financial straits right now. They'll hang onto him, then probably flip him in a posting deal when he's a year or two from free agency if they decide he can still bring a Matsuzaka-sized windfall.
Posted by: CJax33 | January 01, 2008 at 11:28 PM
To all the crazy number posting fee people I seem to remember the posting system does have one rule to make it only about 90 percent corrupt. That being the contract offered has to at least exceed the posting fee itself. If that is the case even at 75 mil a team would be investing Santana money in the kid.
Posted by: walkoffblast | January 02, 2008 at 12:17 AM
Maybe it's just me, I think it comes off as a little obnoxious when people *gush* uncontrollably. Considering that Matsuzaka was proclaimed umpteen times to be the best pitcher on the planet, with 20 different pitches he could put anywhere at any time, guaranteed to win Rookie of the Year and the Cy Young Award, you'd think people would temper their enthusiasm a tad and be less militant.
Posted by: DentalPlan | January 02, 2008 at 03:35 AM
"the contract offered has to at least exceed the posting fee itself"
Where does this come from? Igawa's contract is worth $6M less than his posting fee. The Red Sox initial offers for Matsuzaka were much, much less than their posting bid.
Posted by: mac_1103 | January 02, 2008 at 08:28 AM
"that strike zone in japan is HUUUUGGGEEEE"
The zone is a little bigger for him becuz he's a star.
Not that this doesn't happen in the US right? (cough cough MADDUX cough cough GLAVINE cough cough clemens cough ahem....whoa, dont know what that was....)
Posted by: bsox21 | January 02, 2008 at 09:18 AM
Would You Really Want To Spend 150 Million On A 21 Year Old Flame Thrower I Would Give Him A Few More Years In Japan Before Posting Him!!!!
Posted by: nightshift83 | February 03, 2008 at 10:43 AM
In 2010 th mets,yankees and red sox will probably give a posting fee of 100 millon dollars. At least around there. But at 22 by then it will be worth it. 3x better than dice k.
Posted by: beastOftheEast | December 13, 2008 at 04:36 PM