Brian Roberts Rumors

Why the heck would anyone want Ronny Cedeno? It grows tiresome - he can't hit for average, has little power, can't steal bases and is a liability defenively at shortstop. He's had THREE chances to claim the Cubs SS position and is always outplayed by lesser hyped players. He's a bum. Baltimore should hold onto Roberts unless they are offered fresh oracles from the world.

teams might want him because he is only 25. He has shown he can really hit in AAA, so he just needs to mature a little. Here are this AAA numbers:

http://www.sportsline.com/mlb/players/playerpage/392179

Not to mention he isn't really a liability defensively. He has crazy range and a dunston type of arm...so that is completely wrong. He did have some accuracy issues, but im told he has improved that a ton. Not many ss ever sniff .900+ ops in AAA, so that's why people would want him. He also plays 3 positions...

I see the o's getting a 3 for 1, but not 4 if they are going to get gallagher.

How about this:

Colvin, Gallagher, Marshall, Cedeno, Patterson

FOR

Roberts, Sherrill

I think a Cedeno comparable is when the Orioles acquired Corey Patterson from the Cubs. The O's traded shortstop Nate Spears and left-hander Carlos Perez for Patterson. Spears had some upside at the time; Perez less. Neither has amounted to much. Patterson was perceived as possibly failed, but possibly needing a new team to realize his potential. I think the Orioles perceive Cedeno in that light, but with less likelihood than C. Patterson to realize his potential. So, I don't think they'd make him an important piece of a Roberts trade; it would dilute the value of Roberts.

My guess is they want Gallagher, Ceda, Patterson and Cedeno.

I honestly think the move would good for both teams. The orioles might as well just start over. Get rid of anyone who makes more than $2 mil a year. They are definitely cellar bound this year, and if they don't strengthen their team and minor league system, they might stay there for a while. The Rays stunk for years, but give them credit at least there's light (ray of light?) at the end of the tunnel

Aduncaroo, yes, I know what you're saying, but my point was merely to compare perceived value. I could've used an example from a Red Sox trade, or anyone's. My point was merely to find a way of measuring how I thought the current Orioles regime would value Cedeno. I don't think MacPhail would've given as much for C. Patterson as Flanagan did. And I think MacPhail probably is well aware of Cedeno's shortcomings and has no illusions. Worth a flyer, worth a stopgap, but not to be depended upon to reach his potential.

I have not once heard E. Patterson mentioned in Baltimore as a likely part of this deal. I'm sure I must've missed a rumored mention or two, and rumors are only rumors, but there have been so many rumors that mention Cedeno (though fewer on the Baltimore end) that I give that rumor fair credence. I also guess by the lack of talk on this end that MacPhail is down on E. Patterson, and not much interested. I'm only drawing inferences, of course; what do I know? But I think E. Patterson as part of this is doubtful.

I don't think cedeno is a centerpiece, but I do think he is more than a throw in. Fontenot is a throw in, cedeno is more. I do have to disagree, I think mcphail probably values and valued patterson more than the old gm did. I also think he probably sees cedeno as more than a throw in or 4th piece. Not centerpiece by any means, but a good 2nd piece and great 3rd one.

Yes, it may be smoke when MacPhail says there are other suitors. But there are a number of contenders who would be improved by acquiring Roberts. Cleveland (and moving Cabrera and Peralta over). The Dodgers. The Mariners (at least they perceive themselves as contenders). The Blue Jays (though a trade within the division is unlikely). The Rockies. The Padres.

I agree with Aduncaroo.

If a combo of Veal and Gallagher, or Gallagher and Ceda, or Veal and Ceda both go in this trade, then the Orioles get the better end of the deal. They should not overpay for this trade, simply because they already have internal options at 2B.

Remember that a year ago, Veal was projected as a top of the rotation LH power pitcher. He had control problems the first half of last year, but righted the ship and had a decent second half.

I also think veal is a sleeper here and im crossing my fingers we don't give him up unless its with marshall as the centerpiece. I would put veal's current value about that of ceda. Both in a trade, or one of them with gallagher is a huge haul as far as the O's are concerned.

Socalcolonol17,

Adun is correct but also (and I know this is not what Tim meant) the steep price could include Pie, which would then force the Cubs to go get a CF like Crisp or Byrd.

A month ago 99% of Cub fans never heard of Ceda. Now he's untouchable! Amazing.

I think that the signing of Cintron is important in all this. They did not need him with Cedeno, Fontenot, and other prospects rising in the middle. Baltimore wanted him before the Cubs picked him up. They will either deal him or use him to replace somebody they deal from the middle infield.

Soriano is also not 100% speed, so they need a person at lead-off with speed and high OBP%.

I will not speculate everybody in the deal, but Roberts I hope will take over 2B and allow DeRosa (whom I like) to move to SS. He has proven he can play 3B and the left side before. His offense would be a major improvement over Theriot and he could also platoon and fill in for 3B, and RF from time to time to give people breaks.

Ideal Lineup for me:
1) Roberts - 2B,
2) Fukudome - RF,
3) Lee - 1B,
4) Soriano - LF
5) Ramirez - 3B
6) DeRosa - SS
7) Soto - C
8) Pie - CF

if the cubs are going to get fleeced and give two of gallagher, ceda, and hart, why not hold off until the deadline then try for hanley ramirez(if avail) and try throwing hart, veal, ceda,cedeno and epat at the fish? otherwise we will just get a guy for two good/great years, without making a real significant impact at a position we lack at?just throwing it out there to see how other cub fans feel about the idea of a package for ramirez , because i think we're fine w/o roberts, and do not have to make a deal this early or at all.

Jr, I think hendry would deal him in this deal bc mcphail knows all about him and would "take care of him", bc he knows the situation.

Hart is not the calibur of veal/gallagher.

Ceda being valuable to cubs fans just lately is a product of not seeintg him last year and bp naming him our best pitching prospect...it might have came out of nowhere to some of us, but that doesn't mean its not justified.

what is the point of posting a lineup that does not have soriano leading off? that is the only place he is going to hit.

if the roberts trade does happen, the ideal lineup would be

soriano
roberts
lee
fukudome
ramirez
soto
pie
theriot
P

unless, of course, management wises up to the fact that theriot is not an everyday player on a good team, and puts DeRosa at SS--which is not as ludicrous as some seem to think.

he moved positions to accomodate superior prospects in atlanta (furcal) and texas (young), not because he couldn't play the position. he'd probably be a bit below average defensively due to lack of range, but he's got the arm for it, and he'd more than make up the difference between him and theriot with his bat.

They aren't including sherrill without another legit prospect like veal, ceda etc...at least, on top of whatever it would take to get roberts. Sherrill might be worth a bunch (bunch is relative) come trading deadline...

I don't think Lou really likes Soriano hitting first; he just tolerates it. What he needs is an excuse to move him. That could be: (1) Cubs acquire Roberts, (2) His legs aren't 100%, or (3) both.

Lou's just trying to finesse it. Soriano's gonna be here for a while...

RoquetMan, I don't think your trade proposal is likely. Gallagher, yes, almost definitely. Hr's the one consistent name in all Baltimore reports on the trade. Donaldson can't be traded except as a Player To Be Named Later because he was drafted in 2007. I like the idea of Castillo, as I suggested earlier, but the truth is, I haven't once heard him in a rumor. As for Cedeno & Patterson, I made my main points earlier. I might add that scouting reports--like that in Baseball America--suggest that Patterson just can't play a decent second base. Given that, he'd make little sense for the Orioles--they wouldn't want him as an outfielder, at all.

I haven't heard anything to suggest that the Orioles are high on Patterson. MacPhail certainly knows him, so it's possible he is higher on him than some. The Orioles, in future terms, amyway, are much better off at 2nd than short. They have many prospects drafted at shortstop, but few projected to remain there. Some of the better of these prospects are projected for 3rd or 2nd. Shortstop, there's nothing. So, Cedeno makes a better fit from that point of view, too.

The Cubs have to be careful who they give up too. The risk is on both sides and they don't want to give up 4-5 potential big leaugers for a player they'll have for 2 years. I remember the Cubs dealing three "maybes" for Mitch Williams almost 20 years ago. One player was said not to have enough power to be an everyday player, another one supposedly had a low ceiling because of a pedestrian fastball and the third guy was a big, hard throwing first round pick. Those guys, respectively were Rafael Palmeiro, Jamie Moyer...and the guy with all the potential, Drew Hall, was the only dud. That deal probably set the Cubs back a few years. The Orioles aren't the only ones assuming risk. No need to overcompensate because one team feels they have more risk than the other. In the end this will be a fair deal on both sides.

I agree BigBats . I think the Cubs have two maybe three years to win it all so if the Cubs regret the Roberts trade in 2010 or 2011 then so be it .

Unitedsoul, see the problem with that is that Sam Fuld isn't that good. Pie in has far more impressive tools, and is going to be a much, much better fielder. He also has way more hitting ability and seems for more capable of being productive than Fuld. No way I give up Pie in a deal for Blanton, but I wouldn't hesitate to give up Tyler Colvin.

I was thinking Colvin, Marshall, Murton and maybe Dempster for Blanton. The A's need someone to eat innings in Dempster, and Colvin is a good OF prospect. Marshall is still young and probably will end up being a decent 4 for a couple years. Murton could at least be a stopgap with a .360 OBP and solid 17-20 HR power.

Cubbies get a big time innings eater who could potentially produce at a high level in the NL. A rotation of Zambrano, Lilly, Blanton, Hill, Lieber/Marquis would be arguably the best rotation in the NL.

Crunchy,

If you could make one last move before the season began, what (if any) would it be?

If I'm being realistic, I would get Roberts. But I wouldn't overpay for him. If I could be unrealistic, I'd like a veteran frontline starter -- but not Joe Blanton. Zito wasn't so hot leaving that big ballpark in Oakland and coming to the NL. And he has better stuff. Someone, somewhere is going to get fleeced for Blanton. The trouble with frontline starters is that nobody is selling them after Santana (who the Cubs had no shot at), Bedard and Haren. If there was a starter like that out there to be had, I'm not sure the Cubs would have the goods. Other teams would want guys from our starting lineup and we'd wind up scrambling to patch up holes. Or we'd give up the entire farm. I dunno. I'm not a fan of putting all our eggs in one basket. I think teams have a good chance if they can put up a good team out there every year without making huge signings or blockbuster trades. Put a solid core out there and then re-load with another piece or two every year. Sort of the way the Red Sox are doing it. Last year they added Daisuke, this year, Buchholz and Ellsbury from the farm. I don't like the "let's go for it all" strategy where you give up everything then have to start over again when you don't win.

By the way, I know this is a separate thread but the line about a Hunter S. Thompson version of the "Iowa Baseball Confederacy" about Clemens and the steroid gang killed me.

Yes, of course, there are risks both ways. The worst trade in Orioles' history was with Houston. For Glenn Davis we traded Curt Schilling, Pete Harnisch, and Steve Finley. And I've never claimed the Cubs SHOULD make a deal of, say Gallagher, Colvin, and Veal for Roberts. What I do think is that, in the case of Roberts--unlike the cases of Tejada and Bedard--there is no reason for the Orioles to force a trade. So, unless what they are getting looks better than the two 1 or 1s draft choices they would get by letting him walk, they should hold back. crunchy1 has reasonably pointed out in past entries that players still considered strong prospects at higher levels are worth more than brand new #1 picks (other than premium picks). So, Gallagher, though once a #12, is probably worth more than a late 1st rounder or supplemental 1st pick. Colvin, once a #1, the same. Veal, once a #2, I'm not sure at all. But the three of them probably is too much. Are Gallagher & Colvin too much? Maybe. Gallagher & Veal? I'd say no, and add another player, maybe Cedeno.

Would that work for the Cubs? I don't know. But that's one way, from the Orioles' perspective, to gauge value. I've suggested other ways.

From my perspective, the Cubs could really use Roberts. I see the Cubs likely winning their division with or without him. Thereafter, it's something of a crap shoot, and Roberts would sweeten your odds, offering another all-star level player, and a different dimension to your team.

As to market value, it's hard to figure. I think the Braves gave up four potential all-stars and a solid fifth player for Mark Texeira. Now, I'm not comparing Roberts' potential impact to Texeira's. But is he worth half that?

Maybe the Edgar Renteria trade is the most similar, most recent. We can debate the value of Renteria vs Roberts. But for the moment, let's consider them equal. Baseball America considers both Hernandez & Jurrjens both to be in Atlanta's top five prospects and Atlanta's system is far better than the Cubs'. Both players are potential all stars. I'd say I'd rather have this twosome than Gallagher-Colvin. But let's call them equal. Maybe this is market value for Roberts (whom I'd rather have than Renteria).

Cedeno's great '07 AAA season was backed by a .395 BABIP. He's not fast enough to back that up in the slightest. He still has no power, does not walk, and doesn't steal bases. A normal BABIP would result in the same crap as '06. His D in '06 was horrid. 23 errors in 130 games is not what you want up the middle. Cedeno is the same player he was a few years ago, below average. If he wins the starting job, I would be very surprised, and I'm certainly not a Theriot fan either.

Haha... Mario Mendoza was just unlucky!

Some good points, Playwright. In my opinion, the Tigers overpaid for Renteria. The Tigers also have a different strategy than the Cubs. They're going all out for the next year or two. They've traded their entire farm. If they don't win soon, there looks to be some lean years ahead. But I see your point in that it's a similar type deal in terms of type of player. The part of the equation that's different is the buyer. The Braves found an eager buyer in the Tigers (so did the Marlins). Kenny Williams on the White Sox also seems to be more eager than most. If I'm a salesman, I'm lickin my chops when Dombrowski or Williams walk in the door-- but I know I have a tougher sell with Hendry. I'll probably still try to make a profit on the deal but I'd realize I'd probably wind up settling for less. I know that Hendry wants to buy but I also know that he's already pretty satisfied with what he's got, at least in relation to his competition. The Cubs don't have to compete against the Indians or the Yankees or the Red Sox or the Angels...until they get into the WS. They know they can still make the playoffs - and with a late run ala the Rockies, make the WS with what they've already got. And if you can just make it in, the Cardinals proved two years ago that anything can happen. So I see some similarities but no two deals are alike. There's always variables.

Here's some perspective on all the prospect names being thrown around. Baseball America's Top 100 prospects are in. The Cubs had Fukudome 30; Vitters 43; Soto 47; Colvin 75; Gallagher 82...not bad. Interestingly, Ceda didn't make the list. Most likely because he is a reliever. Ceda, however, got 4 votes, one as high as 73. Donald Veal got 2 votes and someone ranked him 87. Smardzija got one vote as the 100th guy. The Cubs had 5 guys, tied for second most... and had two near misses. No other team had more than 7 total. It looks like the Cubs are turning things around, though Fukudome doesn't really count.
Some comparisons on other players...
Jurrgens is 49, Hernandez is 92.
From the Bedard trade Tillman is 67 and none of the other guys made the list, though Jones was 28 last year. Butler and Mickolio didn't get one single vote for the top 150.
In the Tejada trade, Patton is 78 and no one else got a vote for the top 150. From these rankings, it looks like the players the Cubs are offering stack up pretty well.

For what its worth, Roberts is a switch hitter.

Yeah pinetarhand, but someone like Derrek Lee hit .317 and his BABIP was like .350 something...and that was the first person I checked, with around .35 difference. It can fluctuate, but if I'm not mistaken, BABIP is like taking none of someone's hits away, but taking all of thier strikeouts away, correct? So being that Ronny hit .359 in AAA last year, I figured I'd take a look and see what Troy Tulo did in his rookie breakout year...

He hit .291 with a .336 BABIP, which is a .045 increase.

So lets see what that would translate to for a guy that hit .359 with a .045 increase. That means he would have a .404 BABIP! He had actually LESS than that, but you think he was lucky? No. For a guy to hit .359, his BABIP could easily be that high and it isn't that abnormal...unless you think Troy was lucky too. Hell, I looked at Braun from last year and he had a .043 increase from BA to BABIP. So why is Cedeno's .38 increase isn't abnormal, he was just plain good.

Pouring you one right now brother.

Enjoy!

I just wrote another rant about how I think that is one of the dumbest stats in the world...but I'll spare you all. Just keep in mind that for a hitter to have a high average, if they strike out at all its going to be a high BABIP as well.

Pitchers can control it with stuff and deception, they aren't always lucky if they produce a low BABIP...thats the point of their pitching styles.

"So again, lets not say that Cedeno is lucky because he had a high OBP"

*meant to say bc he has a high BABIP, sorry about that.

I've written long rants 3 times about this, and this commenting system won't let me post any of them even though none of them have any bad words in them. Garbage.

So, tell me the last time a player had anywhere near a .395 BABIP for 2 years in a row & we can end this argument. Otherwise doing something stupid like compare Howard's BABIP to AVG (which of course is large considering his K rate) does nothing but show your ignorance to the subject at hand.

Sorry for the mean words, but this commenting system has me miffed.

Wow. You Cubs fans are a delusional bunch! I know this site has a North Side bias, but...dang! Now, I'll admit, I'm a lifelong O's fan, and, as such, may not be the most objective voice, but some of these comments are downright absurd. First: Crunchy- You think Gallager, Marshall, Colvin, and Murton would've bested the D'backs' offer of Carlos Gonzales, Brett Anderson, Aaron Cunningham, Chris Carter, Greg Smith, and Dana Eveland. Not only is Arizona's farm system considered superior to Chicago's (or was, before the Haren deal), a quick glimpse at Baseball America's recently released Top 100 prospects list reveals a considerable discrepancy between Gonzalez and Anderson (22 and 36) and the top names involved in Crunchy's proposal- Colvin and Gallager (75 and 82). If that weren't enough, the secondary prospects 'Zona sent Oakland's way- Cunningham, Smith, Carter, and Eveland- are much more appealing than Murton and Marshall. While this has nothing to do with the prospective Roberts deal, it is emblematic of the skewed sensibilities on display here. Cubs farmhands are exponentially overvalued on this site, leading to a load of laughably lame 'offers' that typically replace quality with quantity and invariably deny the Cubs' speculative trade partner any parts of real value. How else do you explain the Hanley Ramirez for Hart, Veal, Ceda, Cedeno and Eric Patterson comment above. Ha! C'mon dude; including A LOT of junk doesn't make the offer any less- er- junky (I originally used a different word). Still...it was funny as poo, so at least there's that.

As far as the Roberts deal, the same logic applies. You can debate just how much (or how little) Roberts might impact an already impressive squad, but to perpetuate the ridiculous notion that Murton, Cedeno, and Gallagher might get it done...? Just another Wrigley pipe dream. While some of you seem to think that Roberts is just a glorified bench warmer, those crazy cats that make up THE REST OF THE BASEBALL WORLD, have the mixed up notion that he's among the top second basemen and leadoff batters in the game- a 2 time All Star with toughness (coming back from one of the nastiest baseball injuries I can remember), charisma, and character (though his inclusion in the Mitchell Report cannot be ignored). There are red flags- the aforementioned Mitchell Report; his age- but overall, he's a terrific player, a great value, and an excellent fit for the Cubbies. Along with the on base percentage and speed at the top of the order (and whoever said Soriano will bat leadoff even if the Cubs get Roberts, is an absolute mo-ron), BRob is among the game's best at working a count. I'm not a stat-head (you can get more out of one game watching a guy than all that sabremetrics bull), but look at the number of pitches he sees per at bat. He's perfect balance for a free-swinging club like Chicago.

Of course, you gotta give something to get something. I understand that the Cubs fans here want to hang on to their top farm talents, but the goal (particularly after 100 years of futility) is a World Series ring and Roberts could be the missing piece...or not. I'm not a fortune teller. Like I said, it's an excellent fit and, with the right package, it makes sense for both sides. McPhail isn't going to send his owners' favorite player packing for 30 cents on the dollar, though. Matt Murton?! You do get that Baltimore is trying to improve don't you? I'm not saying Murton stinks, but you don't build around platoon-types or even middling starters; you build around studs. In dealing an established star- and yes...Roberts is an established star (thus, the all-star appearances)- the point is to acquire kids with the potential to approximate or exceed the departing stud's production at some point in the future; to exchange something of present value for a package that, down the line, could have equal or, preferably, greater value. Otherwise...what's the point?! Ronnie Cedeno? The only people who believe Cedeno is anything more than a utility-to-platoon infielder, are...yup, Cubs fans. Try as you might, you're not convincing anyone otherwise. Considering how weak McPhail's new middle infield will be without Roberts (and his familiarity with Cedeno), he might accept Cedeno as the finishing touch in the deal, but I'd be shocked if he were one of the key pieces. Gallagher is the one element of the deal that appears agreed upon- a solid mid-to-back of the rotation starter with a little upside, but hardly the future ace he's been made out to be here. If that trio represents the Cubs' best offer, I would almost guarantee Roberts remains in Baltimore. At the very least, Chicago must meet the value represented by the two early draft picks the O's will likely receive as (Type A) compensation for their star second-baseman, assuming he leaves via free agency after '09 (and is offered arbitration). [Note: another positive to making the deal- those hypothetical draft picks would become the Cubs'; payable upon unaccepted arbitration after two years solid service]

I understand why some of the comments bring up Cedeno and Eric Patterson as key inclusions, but I really don't see it. Patterson, like Cedeno, fails to project as much more than a stopgap starter (at best). The Birds desperately need middle infield help- sure- but Chicago simply doesn't have the horses. Conversely, while Baltimore has its share of outfield options to play alongside right-field rising star Nick Markakis, including the recently acquired Adam Jones, there's no such thing as too much talent...particularly when you're as bad as the boys in orange and black (or white). And since that's where the Cubs' most intriguing position prospects- outside of the unattainable Josh Vitters and opening day catcher, Geovany Soto- reside, I'd be surprised if Pie or Colvin weren't still on McPhail's wish list. Even if Jones and/or Orioles OF prospect Nolan Reimold emerge as stars, Colvin, for instance, would still have value as either trade bait or- because of his athleticism- through a position change.

Prospects are just that: prospective major leaguers. There's so much subjectivity to determining their value that it's virtually impossible to assess an equitable rate of exchange. At the same time, they're central to reconstruction efforts. It's a difficult balance and naturally the sides are diametrically opposed as to the central star's value. Still, at the heart of any such deal is the understanding that both quality and quantity requirements be satisfied for the prospect recipients, while the star's new club positions itself to make a legitimate run at a World Series crown. Whether Roberts' contributions are worth sacrificing two top prospects and one or two lesser kids, then, is the central question to whether this deal is done. On the Orioles' end, it's much simpler: will those demands be met. At this point, I don't know. It might all be for naught. But make no mistake, it's almost CERTAIN not to happen without such an offer. So forget the Murton, Cedeno, Gallagher gossip or any similar scenarios. If it don't hurt, it ain't gonna fly. Turn the tables... What would your reaction be if Baltimore offered Troy Patton, Jay Payton, and Luis Hernandez...for Aramis Ramirez? Didn't think so. And yes, that's about how the Murton, Cedeno, Gallagher trio sizes up outside of Chitown!

Now, if you're not absolutely sick of this post...MY hypothetical Roberts deal. I'd be interested what the Cubs fans think...: Roberts and ? (Bradford? Payton? Sherril might be a bit much, but I'd consider it) for Colvin, Gallagher and either Cedeno or a player to be named later, turning out to be short season second base prospect Tony Thomas. I like the mix of Colvin, Gallagher, and Thomas. Colvin has a nice upside, but certainly fails the sure-thing test (those K:BB numbers are a little scary), Gallagher can fill out a rotation with the ceiling to be a #3, and Thomas has an intriguing boom or bust bat. It’s a gamble, but a worthy one- for both clubs.

It also means that means the Cubs keep Pie, Hill (that one was laughable…and I’m an O’s fan!), and Soto as their youth base. Vitters and Smardzija (or however you spell it) are high-ceiling talents still in the system who could really pop. Veal (who I wouldn't mind McPhail netting as a third piece, under the right circumstances) and Huseby, too, have some projection. And on down the line. Point being: it gets Roberts into Wrigley (where he'll be a fan favorite within weeks) without selling the farm/mortgaging the future and still provides Baltimore the requisite return; further improving a fast-rising farm system that will be at the heart of the organization's rebuilding efforts for the next five years.

Best of all- it’ll be over!

Like this ridiculously long post. Sorry.

Oh, Murton is a great freaking hitter, too. I hope you don't get him.

tl;dr

Also, on WGN this morning they said Murton was starting in left and Cedeno at third for the first spring training game (or more, not sure) specifically for the purpose of scouts watching them.

Ichiro has had 2 of the last 4 years a babip at .390 or above. The point is, the guys that hit for a high average that aren't just contact hitters are always going to have a high babip. It doesn't make me ignorant, it makes me a person who has analyzed the stat and decided its pretty worthless.

Yet again, you say you know all about the stat and say that it's worthless. Yet countless analysts use it as an indicator when taken in account with other variables. So you're saying that you're smarter than every sabermetric baseball analyst out there. That is absurd.

Im not saying ronny is going to hit .357 in the majors at all, he obviously won't replicate it. Im saying that he could hit .285 though, and many analysts agree. Every analyst has stats they put more weight on than others, and babip is far from the top of my list. How would any hitter hit .300 and have a babip of .300? They would have to never strike out...ever. Most hitters have a differential from BA ranging between .020 to .050, and cedeno last year was .38. In your scenario, no one would ever hit .300!

Ronny's warp above freddie bynam would probably be a good amount. Ronny is certainly not in his prime either...so he could get better. He has a good swing and above average speed as well, and most scouts aren't too worried about his defense bc of his great arm strength and range. Accuracy is the only issue, and its suposed to be getting better. To compare him to braun is laughable though, as he played historically bad defense. I mean some of the worst ever. Ronny isn't anywhere near that category. For a guy to hit .357 though, its not crazy that his babip was high at all. It would have to be...which is my whole point.

So it is looking like Gallagher, Cedeno and someone else. I guess that is why Lieber was signed. Knowing Gallagher might have to go in the trade. I understand Gallagher going if that is the case. Cedeno going makes sense as a middle infielder. I would guess another pitcher goes, a lower level guy that would not take a roster spot. The O's have roster spot limits after the other two big trades. Or they can include a roster spot prospect in the Roberts trade turn around and make a deal later after they send someone down who has options. The only problem with Gallagher is for the Cubs he would have replaced a righty in our rotation. That means we have Marhall as a back up starter, another starting lefty. Geez! It was not long ago the Cubs could not find one starting lefty.

So the latest word is Gallagher, Cedeno and someone else...

Please stop using Tony Thomas in trade rumors. He was just drafted in 2007.

Pinetar, please don't think I think ronny is this amazing player who is the next arod or jeter...I don't. Im just saying he does still have potential and has much more value than say a fontenot, who is a true throw in. He could develop into a khalil greene type with less power but higher average...and that is worlds better than what you have right now at ss. That's all im trying to say here. Well that and babip is a completely over rated stat

uww1,

I guess I don't understand why you are here if you think speculation is stupid. This is a Rumor blog, so the entire thing is speculation. This is not a board room of baseball executives, so people are throwing all kinds of things around.

I was one that mentioned a lineup earlier on this thread, and don't think anything about my best guess at how it would work with adding Roberts, is crazy or stupid. You can dispute the logic of my guess, but why should that not be part of the discussion. I don't think it is any more speculation than you guessing who we will give up for Roberts in a potential trade.

The Cubs are expressing interest in Roberts whom we know is a leadoff batter and 2B starter. The Cubs have Soriano batting lead-off and a starter with good stats in DeRosa. So, the issue the lineup addresses is "where does Roberts fit both offense and defence?, and how would this work?" What becomes of DeRosa as a position player? Where do you move Soriano in the batting order if this happens? Pusing Soriano lower in the order has consequences too in the concentration of righties for the middle of the order and lefties at the top and bottom. Reality is that none of the players you mention to trade for Roberts will make the starting lineup unless something major happens to a starter, so to me that is less important to me personally than why should this deal be pushed and how it will work for the team. These guys are all talented, but focusing on keeping rising talent alone is not going to be bringing us a ring this year. I have been a Cubs fan my whole life and want that more than anything. My Grandfather has not seen the Cubs in a World Series. It is time.

Something has to give on trading. The Cubs are loaded at 2B with DeRosa, Fontenot, and Patterson. SS we have Theriot, Cedeno, and Cintron. OF we have Pie, Fuld, Murton.

Pitching is the same thing. We have 7 potential SP, and some room to deal in RP.

I am not even mentioning MiLB talent yet that is the future like Ceda, Colvin, and others. We have too many stacked before even considering them. A trade makes sense, but I am curious what the logic in Roberts right now over a bigger name SS for example. Why Roberts? What is their idea for the team to look like? I don't see where this is going yet. I look here to see if somebody else may have an idea I am too shortsighted to see. I have not seen it yet. Maybe there is no logic to be found either.