![]() |
|
|
| |
« Cubs Still Talking To Rangers About Byrd | Main | A's Revive Talks For Crisp »
FRIDAY, 7:42pm: I have it on good authority that Ceda has not, in fact, been added to any kind of offer to Baltimore. With minor league games having begun today, the O's are still doing their due diligence. Dave van Dyck's sources agree that no deal is imminent.
FRIDAY, 7:13am: We've actually got some movement this morning on the Brian Roberts front. According to Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times, the Cubs have added hard-throwing 21 year-old reliever Jose Ceda to their offer. They'd also send Sean Gallagher, Ronny Cedeno, and Donald Veal to Baltimore. The Cubs had been holding out on Ceda, a nasty relief prospect. With him included, they'd be sending their three best pitching prospects (according to Baseball America) in the 4-for-1 deal.
Wittenmyer also notes that the deal could be expanded to a 5-for-2 with cash if Jason Marquis and Jay Payton are included. He believes a deal will get done before Opening Day, but it may go down to the wire.
TrackBack URL for this entry:
http://www.typepad.com/services/trackback/6a00d834515b9a69e200e5512f6f098834
Listed below are links to weblogs that reference Cubs Did Not Offer Ceda:
This is only a preview. Your comment has not yet been posted.
As a final step before posting your comment, enter the letters and numbers you see in the image below. This prevents automated programs from posting comments.
Having trouble reading this image? View an alternate.


|
|
Who cares any more? Neither of these teams will make the playoffs. The O's are cursed by being in the same division as NY and Boston. The Cubs are just flat our cursed. Brian Roberts will not make them any better. I think he'll have a significant drop off with a shift to the NL. Aren't there any interesting rumors out there?
Posted by: 1quik6 | March 14, 2008 at 07:24 AM
Sad.. just sad..
I would rather see Colvin, Ceda, Cedeno, Gallagher. The top 3 pitching prospects... SAD.
Posted by: Bleacher_Buddha | March 14, 2008 at 07:30 AM
no no no no no give up their 3 best pitching prospects for Roberts???Just way too much too give for 1 player.
Posted by: ryno23 | March 14, 2008 at 07:33 AM
1quik6
I had to sign up just to respond to your absurd comment. I'm an Orioles fan with absolutely no interest in the NL Central, but barring massive injuries the Cubs should win that division with or without Roberts.
And to think that both Roberts and the Cubs will struggle more by his move to that division is absurd. Look at the AL East and the NL Central, and there's no comparison. He'll be playing in an easier division on a better team. Not to mention the fact that he's an obvious improvement over Mark DeRosa, even if it isn't as pronounced as some O's fans would proclaim.
Posted by: ChristianTool | March 14, 2008 at 07:37 AM
The Orioles are foolish if they don't take this deal. I think the lingering injury to Petrick forced the Cubs hand here into relenting on Ceda. I'm excited to see the Cubs have moved Soriano down the lineup anyway and that part will help the Cubs (and stat nerds, I don't want to hear about how lousy Theriot is according to your calculators -- I've heard it all already). Roberts would be an upgrade now but the Cubs would have to move Soriano again because now you're moving your 6th hitter to the bench and replacing him with a rookie in Soto. I'm not too excited about this deal, if the Orioles pass, I'll be fine with it. I'm sort of hoping they do.
Posted by: crunchy1 | March 14, 2008 at 07:38 AM
I agree completely, the cubs are going to have speed with soriano and theriot and fukudome and pie, it just makes no sense for them to go out and use all of their good young pitchers for a player who really is an overkill. Yes, Roberts does make them better, but he is not on the level that will make the cubs an instant favorite in the NL to make it to the WS. I would just give eric pattersion the second base job if the cubs want offensive production from the position. And lets not forget, Derosa can be productive as well.
Posted by: bravesbeast | March 14, 2008 at 07:38 AM
Part of me wants to believe that the Cubs are pushing for Sherril (sp?) if they are relenting on Ceda, or that they are swapping another pitcher out for Ceda. But I think that a 4-1 could still be good as the trade would add good depth to the bench and as much as Derosa doesn't like it, he would be the ultimate bench player with all the positions, he would still play 130 games at least. I think the offense would also not need the long ball as bad with Roberts, a move to speed and hitting to move players.
Also, why would Roberts not improve to move to the NL? Most players do, even mediocre players due. Why would he be different.
Posted by: Cubbiesince83 | March 14, 2008 at 07:47 AM
Jason Marquis should retire if he ends up in the AL East.
Posted by: Darin | March 14, 2008 at 07:57 AM
MacPhail is proving to be a GENIUS.
Look at the hauls he will get for Tejada, Bedard and Roberts: he's rebuilt his outfield, he improved his bullpen and he's replenished the minors.
MacPhail had no leverage going in to the off-season. His team wasn't going to be contender. These three guys were going to walk eventually. Two of them have been tainted by the Mitchell report.
And yet, he will have raided three organizations of their top talent.
Bravo, Mr. McPhail. It's impressive what you can do when Angelos removes your handcuffs and shackles.
Posted by: Iowa City | March 14, 2008 at 08:08 AM
Hendry getting fleeced!!
Posted by: krushagent | March 14, 2008 at 08:11 AM
I want Robert's as much as anybody, but that's way too much to give up, even if Jay Payton is included. I hope the deal doesn't happen now. I'll be fine with DeRosa and Fontenot at second.
Posted by: roymunson | March 14, 2008 at 08:25 AM
cub fans:
would you give up the rumored foursome for both Roberts and George Sherrill?
Posted by: Iowa City | March 14, 2008 at 08:28 AM
mcphail should jump on this before hendry comes to his senses, if it's accurate. the Os aren't going to get more than this and the cubs are competing against themselves for roberts.
Posted by: greg | March 14, 2008 at 08:31 AM
I don't want to get anyone in trouble so I won't say where I heard this, but I told you about this before - see my earlier threads.
Marquis and Payton are both in the deal.
Soto and Hernadez are out of the mix, principally because the Orioles are worried about Soto's weight issues and apaarently he's not exactly have a great spring.
Ceda was the extra player I told you about earlier, with the short name that began with a C.
The holdup is Angelos wants Marmol in the deal too, making it a 6-2 deal. Also they haven't resolved if the Cubs give up Cedeno or another player thought to be Patterson but might be Fontenot???
Posted by: Ndano | March 14, 2008 at 08:42 AM
Throw in Sherril and it's a deal, but it would defeat the purpose of the deal IMO.
There's value on both sides and I can see this happening.
The Cubs are HORRIBLE on the basepaths, utterly TERRIBLE, possibly the worst baserunning team I've seen play major league baseball. Roberts definitely changes that a little bit.
There is a part of me that is really curious to see how Gallagher and Veal would turn out for the Cubs rotation. We've only been talking about them as our studs-in-waiting for a couple of years now.
Posted by: Dave | March 14, 2008 at 08:44 AM
Angelos wants Marmol and he can go piss up a rope. Wind don't we just swap farm team affiliates and call it even. Sheesh.
Posted by: Dave | March 14, 2008 at 08:45 AM
I think the Payton/Marquis/cash aspect has to be part of this. Angelos has money to burn (if it rebuilds the minors) and Payton is just taking up space. The O's don't need another rotation pitcher, but it wouldn't hurt, either. Cabrera might move to the bullpen/minors if this goes through, I think the O's are losing patience with him.
Either way, it's a great haul of prospects, though I'd prefer Patterson be in the deal.
Posted by: The Globalizer | March 14, 2008 at 08:45 AM
---Why, not wind----
that must have made me very angry...
Posted by: Dave | March 14, 2008 at 08:46 AM
Replace Veal WIth Marshell
and i'm Fine with it
Posted by: Juggernaut | March 14, 2008 at 08:48 AM
I hope Angelos insists on Marmol because then the deal won't get done.
Posted by: sweetswingingbw | March 14, 2008 at 08:53 AM
If Marmol's included, I'll become a Cardinal fan.
Posted by: roymunson | March 14, 2008 at 08:58 AM
God...the Chicago GM should just quit talks with Baltimore because they obviously are horribly run from the top-down. If the Cubs OK this, then they're obviusly in a shambles up there too.
Angelos just keeps upping the requirements just so he doesnt look as bad when Chicago axes the deal. "Well, we tried to get a job done but they didnt accept our terms..." Meanwhile he still gets to live out his unrequited man-crush on Brian Roberts.
Posted by: jza1218 | March 14, 2008 at 09:00 AM
"The holdup is Angelos wants Marmol in the deal too, making it a 6-2 deal. Also they haven't resolved if the Cubs give up Cedeno or another player thought to be Patterson but might be Fontenot???"
Marmol? I wouldnt trade Marmol straight up for Roberts. This kid is going to be one of the best closers in the league by the end of the year. Veal and Gallagher is a lot to give up, especially with Marquis going as well. I would replace one of the two with Marshall and its a done deal, also giving them the option of Patterson instead of Cedeno. Whichever they want they can have.
Posted by: Sabinus | March 14, 2008 at 09:02 AM
I have no problem with them including Ceda in the deal. Top 3 Cubs prospects? What about Kevin Hart, Jeff Samardzija, Carmen Pignatello, and Mark Pawelek. This deal also allows the Cubs to keep Sean Marshall for rotation insurance. I try to push for the inclusion of Sherrill, but I'd do it without him, because prospects are just that PROSPECTS.
Posted by: erkman12 | March 14, 2008 at 09:04 AM
"Replace Veal WIth Marshell
and i'm Fine with it"
Its Marshall...but I completely agree with this.
Gallagher\Ceda\Marshall\Cedeno or Patterson
Thats much better, and the Cubs get to keep one of thier best 3 pitching prospects. Take it or leave it McFailure.
Posted by: Aduncaroo | March 14, 2008 at 09:04 AM
how about a three team trade between the cubs angels and the orioles
the angels get Carlos Marmol And Donnie Veal and jay payton
The orioles get Tyler Colver Sean gallagher Jose Ceda And Ronny Cedeno and Kevin Hart
The Cubs Get Reggie Willits
Brandon Wood And Brian Roberts
Any One else think this is a good idea
Posted by: Juggernaut | March 14, 2008 at 09:10 AM
My calculator just told me Theriot sucks. It is also apparently dating the dvd player, and contemplates smashings its own lcd display and slicing people who use the term stat geeks.
Posted by: ArodSucksAtLife | March 14, 2008 at 09:18 AM
Cubs need Roberts!!! These guys are just prospects!! How many actually pan out?? ITs win now in Chicago!!! We have been reluctant to give up prospects and look where is has gotten us, 99 years of futility!!!
Posted by: ROLO | March 14, 2008 at 09:19 AM
as a cardinals fan i have to say this is awesome. ive already conceded this year so whatever makes the cubs worse down the road is terrific. backload the contracts and sell the farm. i love it. u cubbies better win this year. if u dont this trade would look downright stupid.
Posted by: Joelcards | March 14, 2008 at 09:24 AM
There is no way the O's get 3 top pitching prospects and a starting shortstop for Brian Roberts without Sherrill in the deal. Even then, I'd rather keep one of those 3 young pitchers (Ceda, Gallagher, Veal) and just do the deal 4 for 1.
Posted by: Cubs World Champs please B4 I die | March 14, 2008 at 09:36 AM
Ceda, Gallagher, Veal, and Cedeno is REALLY generous for Brian Roberts. They don't even want Payton, we'd be doing them a favor.
Posted by: Cubs World Champs please B4 I die | March 14, 2008 at 09:38 AM
At least one of those three pitchers will excel, and one will be average.
Posted by: Cubs World Champs please B4 I die | March 14, 2008 at 09:39 AM
Reluctant to give up prospects? The Cubs have made a century out of giving up their prospects for aging veterans and has-beens or 'prospects' that turn out to be fool's gold.
Posted by: Dave | March 14, 2008 at 09:40 AM
Yeah, Dave. What if Brian Roberts turns out to be a product of HGH, and/or succumbs to leg injuries?
Then we got NOTHING out of the deal. You made my point for me, thanks.
Posted by: Cubs World Champs please B4 I die | March 14, 2008 at 09:46 AM
It's a lot to give up, but you still HAVE to do this deal. Come on guys, these are the CUBS top 3 pitching prospects, not the top 3 prospects in the league. Gallagher is the highest rated prospect of the 3 and according to most he grades out as a future #3 or #4 starter at best...and now he's moving to the AL East. Veal and Ceda have great stuff, but how many guys that throw 95+ have come into the league and failed? Plenty. Not saying I want them to fail, but I agree with ROLO, we've been playing for the future for 99 years, let's go all-in and make a run at it. The chances that even 1 or 2 of those 3 pitchers, let alone all 3, turn out to be really good major leaguers is still slim. That's what you do when you're trying to build. If you include this proposed Roberts deal, MacPhail has gotten, what, about 13 players all together in the Bedard, Tejada, and Roberts trades? If just 3 or 4 of them turn out to be everyday players that help the O's down the road, they win. Trying to predict how prospects will perform on an everyday basis in the big leagues is just like batting...if you can hit .300 you're doing pretty damn good.
Posted by: CubFanForLife | March 14, 2008 at 09:50 AM
I think you have got to make an effort to hold on to Veal here. Marshall is a tall lefty as well, I think you try and sub him in there. Veal has the highest ceiling out of any of those guys...but alas, I'm sure McFailure knows this too. Gallagher could end up being better than a #4 though...just my opinion. He pitches in a hitter's park and still puts up great numbers.
I say package Murton and Marshall to a team that needs outfield\pitching help and get some lower level good pitching prospects. A couple of Huesby types or something...
Posted by: Aduncaroo | March 14, 2008 at 10:00 AM
I think McPhail is getting a lot for Roberts – but, at the same time, this is actually the exact deal I suggested a few days ago. Here’s the thing. It doesn’t matter that these guys are all top 10 prospects – usually only 3-4 out of the top 10 list pan out into anything special. Gallagher is the most likely to reach those expectations leaving the real possibility that the other 2 guys make little to no impact at all. Another scenario is that Gallagher and Ceda make impacts – but even then, do the Cubs need a young closer with Marmol waiting in the wings? They’ve also got Smardzija, Hart, Lahey, and Petrick on the farm who are big, hard-throwing right handed bullpen guys to fill in the set up roles. The Cubs are dealing from surplus. That’s the way it should be done. And we all know this deal isn’t getting done without Gallagher anyway. The player who could tip the scales into a lopsided deal in favor of the O’s is Veal – even if it’s just Gallagher and Veal who reach their potential, you’ve got a #2 lefty starter in Veal and a #3 guy in Gallagher – a huge payment for 2 years of Roberts. The probability is that one or two of these guys make an impact. I think, in the end, it’s a chance worth taking. On the O’s side, it’s always a risk when you take prospects – even ones like Veal and Ceda who have exceptional, but unpolished skills. But the upside of the deal is too good to pass up. If this is indeed the offer, the deal will get done shortly – finally.
Posted by: crunchy1 | March 14, 2008 at 10:12 AM
FWIW, I love Roberts as a player and the Cubs will be very, very happy with him. Getting him for prospects is a good deal.
Posted by: The Globalizer | March 14, 2008 at 10:20 AM
And IMHO, Marmol for Sherrill is a wash. I prefer Sherrill because he's a bit more proven (barely).
Posted by: The Globalizer | March 14, 2008 at 10:23 AM
Here's my trade proposal:
Vance Law
Dwight Smith
Leon Durham
for
Brian Roberts
Posted by: cr_hartley01 | March 14, 2008 at 10:26 AM
I have to agree with the notion that while it might seem like we are giving up a lot, these are all prospects. And the chances of utilizing these guys (giving them real playing time in the Majors)anytime soon is slim. And come March 31 when it is 40 degrees I would rather have a guy with heathly legs and a huge OBP batting lead off than a hesitant Soriano...or a AAA team full of prospects.
Posted by: SouthernFriedCub | March 14, 2008 at 10:28 AM
Globalizer, Marmol for Sherill a wash?! Have you seen Marmol pitch? The kid is FILTHY. His numbers last year: 59 games. 69.1 IP, 5-1 record, 1.43 ERA, 96 K's and 35 BBs. Righties his .143 against him and lefties .209. He's probablly the best set-up man in the NL right now and if they put him there he could be one of the most feared closers in baseball. There is NO WAY the Cubs move Marmol. Like someone earlier said, I wouldn't (and I doubt the Cubs would either) trade Marmol for Roberts straight up, let alone as part of a package.
Posted by: CubFanForLife | March 14, 2008 at 10:31 AM
so i think that makes the score:
Me- 1
All of you- 0
Read through the old Roberts discussions and see that this was my trade proposal, and all of you told me to i was an idiot and the cubs would never give up their three top pitching prospects. damn it feels good to be right.
Posted by: coryaj20 | March 14, 2008 at 10:51 AM
Do it.
Posted by: jrfukudome | March 14, 2008 at 10:52 AM
You wouldn't do Roberts for Marmol straight up?! That's kind of silly. Roberts is an every day player, while Marmol is 'just' a BP arm...albeit a great one. That said, I think you're right that the kid is filthy and will likely develop into one of the most feared closers in the game and I certainly would take him over Sherrill. Sherrill, first and foremost is in his 30's. Service time/economics alone makes Marmol the better bet. Marmol is getting better, while Sherrill is only going to slip (maybe not this year or next, but certainly within the next 3-5 years). Both guys have great numbers, but Marmol is more the power arm that overpowers guys at the end of a game. I'd take my chances with him over Sherrill every day of the week and twice on Sunday. Finally, Sherrill, thus far in his career, has been used as a situational lefty more than a pure setup man, like Marmol. That means he's coming into situations that play to his strengths. His splits demonstrate that he's CAPABLE of being more than a situational reliever and he'll be used in a more expansive role this year, but that doesn't change what he's actually DONE and how he's been used. Marmol has been used as the Cubs top setup weapon, regardless of the situation, which certainly commands greater value at present and- due to his youth, as I've already stated- in the future.
Posted by: milehigh78 | March 14, 2008 at 10:54 AM
This deal is going to happen. I've been checking the Baltimore box scores lately, and Roberts hasn't been playing much. That tells me that they are holding him back so he doesn't get hurt.
Aside with that, Cedeno has been getting spot pinch hits instead of starting.
They probably are including Ceda. Gallagher, Cedeno, and Ceda should be enough to get this deal done.
I'm not sure I'd include Marquis. I'd rather have him in the rotation than Dempster. Sure, Dempster has looked good this spring, but they are going to figure him out by May.
I hope they don't keep Soriano in the second spot. You need someone who can bunt and slap balls to right field. He doesn't do that. Theriot is perfect for that position. If this happens, I'd do this:
Roberts-2B
Theriot-SS
DLee-1B
Ramirez-3B
Fukodome-RF
Soriano-LF
Soto-C
Pie-CF
I'm still worried about the rotation. Something tells me that a rotation of Zambrano, Lilly, Dempster, Hill, and Lieber is not going to cut it.
By the way, that Lahey guy looks good thing spring. They have to break camp with him or else they have to give him back via the Rule 5 draft, so I can see them taking both him and Hart in the bullpen.
Posted by: TheGrinch | March 14, 2008 at 10:55 AM
By the way, do you think they'd take Henry Blanco off our hands so that we could keep Fox as the back-up catcher? That'd give us someone with power off the bench instead of a broken down injury prone catcher that can't hit. Ok, that probably won't happen.
Posted by: TheGrinch | March 14, 2008 at 10:58 AM
Sherrill has only proven he’s a solid lefty specialist – that is, he has “proven” he can come in for a lefty batter or two and get them out. He is as unproven as a closer as Marmol is. The difference is Marmol is young, has a better arm and a longer future as a closer. He still has tremendous upside left. Sherrill is only a closer because the O’s lack other options and are trying to increase his value for a future deal. Sherrill and Marmol are not, by any stretch of the imagination, a “wash”.
Posted by: crunchy1 | March 14, 2008 at 10:59 AM
I just don't understand why the Cubs are so desperate here.
May as well throw in Vitters, a carton of smokes, and a keg of beer so the Orioles' brass can get smashed after the trade is consumated.
Posted by: mmontice | March 14, 2008 at 11:01 AM
Fox is an awful catcher defensively. His future is at first base or LF. He's an emergency catcher at best.
Posted by: crunchy1 | March 14, 2008 at 11:04 AM
You cannot trade both Veal AND Ceda. Gallagher is fine, but Veal is going to be a STUD, hands down. He has Dontrelle written all over him. And Ceda setting up Marmol in a couple years sounded pretty frightening to other NL teams, but, of course, Hendry F'd this one up the A. What an R-tard. Brian Roberts is NOT going to bring a WS to Chicago, period. Hey Hendry, you wanna win the big ta-do?? Hows about you go out and get a REAL starting pitcher to go between Lilly and Hill..... a Lincecum or Cain or Harden maybe... yea that might actually help.
Posted by: RbCubsFan4Life | March 14, 2008 at 11:07 AM
Damn it feels good to be a gangsta, coryaj20! Sorry, couldn't help it.
Anyway, I think that this is going to be the eventual deal. For one, both sides are a little disappointed, but not outraged- a good sign that it's actually pretty fair. Cubs fans think they're giving up too much, but are glad to get Roberts, while O's fans wanted Colvin, but must admit that they're getting a nice haul. As much as I want Colvin included (instead of Ceda, if necessary), I think that Hendry made a brilliant strategic move by including Ceda. While McPhail may want Colvin more than Ceda, he'd be playing a dangerous game- holding out- as the Cubs could just as easily pull what McPhail must know is a very good offer. Suddenly, the O's are almost forced to accept what may not be their 'ideal' package, because value-wise, it's pretty much everything they've been asking for. To the Cubs fans making their own amendments, I'll add this: The Seven Stages of Grief...
1)Disbelief- 'Yeah right! The deal is going to be Marshall, Murton, and Cedeno for Roberts and a low level prospect.' Remember that one.
2)Denial- 'No way would the Cubs give up three of their top ten prospects AND a potential starting shortstop for Brian Roberts. You O's fans are CRAZY.' I'm sure I recall that one
3)Bargaining- 'swap out Marshall for Veal and I'd do it,' or 'No way this is going down without Sherrill,' or...well look at the comments above.
4)Guilt- ...(OK, it's not perfect)
5)Anger- 'Hendry's getting fleeced!', 'The O's are STUPID if they don't take this deal'... I think we've all seen plenty of angry words in these Roberts threads. Just look at crunchy/adun vs. dark!
6)Depression- 'Sad- just sad,' sums it up nicely.
And finally...
7)Acceptance- 'I think McPhail is getting a lot for Roberts – but, at the same time, this is actually the exact deal I suggested a few days ago. Here’s the thing. It doesn’t matter that these guys are all top 10 prospects – usually only 3-4 out of the top 10 list pan out into anything special.'
Posted by: milehigh78 | March 14, 2008 at 11:14 AM
im scared, the rays are projected to get 88 wins or more this year, the yankees are always challenging, and if baltimore manages to make this deal work and gain 4-5 good players for just roberts, the al east is going to be a nuclear power house
Posted by: 04Forever | March 14, 2008 at 11:17 AM
crunchy...think I said almost exactly the same thing a few posts earlier, but thanks for agreeing.
mmontice- LOL
RbCubsFan- Veal has Willis written all over? Dude, have you WATCHED Willis over the last two years. That guy sucks now!
Posted by: milehigh78 | March 14, 2008 at 11:20 AM
I have been saying Sherrill since the Bedard trade went down. Soon I will be saying "I told you so" HA I think this is a decent trade for both teams if Sherrill would be including in the 5 for 2 deal. Marquis and Payton are a wash for either club, and it doesnt have any effect on this deal one way or another.
Posted by: uww1 | March 14, 2008 at 11:22 AM
Who's projecting the Rays to have 88 wins! I want to see that with my own two eyes!
BTW- you guys are gonna have a sick lineup. If your pitching holds, up, I think I'd take you guys (with Roberts) over a creaky Mets club. I think they just signed Methuzala to play left field.
Posted by: milehigh78 | March 14, 2008 at 11:24 AM
Sorry Mile High, I didn't read your post...but you're right it's very similar. I responded to the Sherrill/Marmol post but I was having typekey issues...by the time I got it through your post was up already.
Posted by: crunchy1 | March 14, 2008 at 11:25 AM
uww1- Know you're Sherrill man-crush, but the rumor said nothing about him being a part of the deal; that's just another poster jumpin' on your bandwagon. If McPhail can somehow swing Colvin into this deal and swap Cedeno for Patterson (we need a 2B replacement, not a second subpar shortstop...though he'd be better than Luis), I'll forgive him for taking Sherrill and Mickolio instead of demanding Triunfel in the Bedard deal.
Posted by: milehigh78 | March 14, 2008 at 11:28 AM
I really don't care about Cedeno or Colvin or even Ceda for that matter. Hell, they could throw in almost anyone else other than Vitters, and both Veal and Gallagher and I would be happy.
Reason being is starting pitching, especially cheap starting pitching, is paramount in baseball, and for the Cubs to give up their two best young starting pitching prospects in one trade is not a very smart move in my opinion.
Posted by: mmontice | March 14, 2008 at 11:33 AM
crunch- I figured as much. Just busting ba...your hump. The deal really is shaping up as projected by the more objective fans (Cubs AND O's) on the Roberts threads. I said Colvin instead of Ceda, b/c of Ceda being a BP arm, but otherwise, I was right on. Still think its funny that, three weeks ago, some people were talking Murton, Marshall, and Cedeno or, at best, Murton, Gallagher, Cedeno. I'm still sticking to my belief that Payton and one more prospect (wish: Colvin; reality: probably more along the lines of Patterson or Huesby) will be involved before the ink dries, but otherwise, this thing is finally coming to an end. What do we talk about now? Hey, we've got this really great veteran pitcher on our staff named Steve Traschel. How 'bout a trade?! (LOL)
Posted by: milehigh78 | March 14, 2008 at 11:36 AM
Mile,
Seems like I remember someone saying that they should include Ceda so Hendry looks like he gave in...only to actually be happy not to have to include Colvin. Seems like that could be very much like what happened here. I said that I think McPhail takes that offer, because as you stated, its pretty much all the value you wanted.
If I'm Jim now, I say you can have one of these two offers:
Gallagher\Ceda\Patterson\Marshall
or
Gallagher\Ceda\Veal\Cedeno
I agree, Patterson has looked great lately, and like it or not, does have BRob offensive abilities. That may be his ceiling, but it is possible.
Posted by: Aduncaroo | March 14, 2008 at 11:36 AM
I think you make an excellent point, mmontice, but as someone else pointed out, these are the CUBS' top two (starting) pitching prospects; neither is considered an elite pitching prospect overall, nor does either look likely to lead a staff as a front-of-the-rotation type. Veal certainly has the upside, but his '07 hardly inspires faith that he'll reach that lofty ceiling. Again, these are PROSPECTS.
Posted by: milehigh78 | March 14, 2008 at 11:41 AM
I'm not a "stats geek", but I think Theriot is vastly overrated. Here is the lineup I would use if the Cubs get Roberts:
1. Roberts
2. Lee
3. Ramirez
4. Soriano
5. Fukudome
6. Soto
7. Pie
8. Theriot
Theriot in the 8 hole works because 1. he can get on base in front of the pitcher and 2. he will provide some protection for Pie, so that Pie might actually see some strikes. The problem with Pie batting 8th is that he has a terrible eye, and he'd never see a pitch in the strike zone with the pitcher on deck.
Posted by: thklein | March 14, 2008 at 11:43 AM
Don't know about Patterson, but for the sake of argument, let's say he's BRob all over again...in two or three years. He's not going to get the on-the-job training he needs in Chicago and makes more sense than Cedeno here. Oh well. I said the whole Ceda/Colvin strategy thing above...in hindsight. Are you saying somebody mentioned that before?! YOU?! If so...what're the next powerball numbers?! That's pretty prophetic.
Posted by: milehigh78 | March 14, 2008 at 11:45 AM
MIlehigh,
It doesn't matter whether the two are "elite" to the Cubs. Come next year or the year after, the Cubs will still need to find replacements for the two, which will cost them many $$$ on the free agent market.
Lieber isn't getting any younger, Marquis will have his 2nd half blow up, once again, and adding Marshall to the rotation simply isn't the answer. Other than that, there isn't a whole lot of starting pitching in the Cubs minor league pipeline.
Posted by: mmontice | March 14, 2008 at 11:48 AM
I also wouldn't trade Marquis. He's a first half wonder. I would put him in the starting rotation to start the season and have Leiber pitch long relief. Then, when Marquis shows signs of fading in the second half, put Leiber in the rotation. That way Leiber's arm will be fresh and he'll be able to finish off the season. Combined, Marquis and Leiber make one pretty good starter.
Posted by: thklein | March 14, 2008 at 11:50 AM
It seems like every Cubs fan agrees that DeRosa is a better player than Theriot. Does he (DeRosa) have the range to play SS? If so, why not...screw Theriot. I really don't know. As I've stated over and over, I'm an O's fan. I'm just asking. From what I've read here, he's played all over the diamond.
Oh yeah, thanks for reminding me, thklein...
ARodsAFailure- if you don't want to be called a Stat Geek...stop sayin' s*&% like 'DeRosa and Roberts have similar ZONE ratings and VORP numbers, but their BABiPs show a real discrepancy in Eq, extrapolated over equivalent ballparks.' How did this happen?!
Posted by: milehigh78 | March 14, 2008 at 11:54 AM
milehigh...
Yes, you and I had a conversation about how it will probably have to include another high prospect. You said you wanted Colving. I said I think it will be Ceda because Hendry can act like he is bending over and taking it, and McPhail will feel better. But I like Colvin more than Ceda, and I think Hendry does too. Amazing, but I think the Wilken thing might be true. Looks to be going out of his way not to include any of his picks. But to answer your question, I did say Hendry should do Ceda instead of Colvin, and he might have been planning it all along. Saying Ceda is "untouchable" early might have just been getting leverage knowing he would include him at the end to put it over the top.
Posted by: Aduncaroo | March 14, 2008 at 11:56 AM
By the way, I just read my post and A) I don't actually have anything against Stat Geeks; I just hate math- always did B)That one sentence looks a little weird- 'If so, why not...screw Theriot.' For clarification, I'm not saying Cubs fans should screw Ryan Theriot. I'm sure he's a nice fellow; perhaps even a handsome man, but I doubt that any of you have any desire to-um- HAVE him, nor do I think he'd appreciate such a violation (LOL). That was actually supposed to read, 'Why not?! Screw Theriot,' the idea being that if DeRosa can capably man SS, it might be preferable and Theriot could be relegated to a more appropriate backup role. I apologize if there was any misunderstanding...not that there's anything wrong with that (LOL).
Posted by: milehigh78 | March 14, 2008 at 12:02 PM
So...where's my Powerball numbers?! I'm having WAY too much fun with this site today. I know I should probably...I don't know...DO MY JOB, but screw it (again, not literally). I've been rejuvenated by this update. It looks like this deal is FINALLY going to go through and there are enough decent posters on right now to talk intelligently on the subject. Good times all around.
Posted by: milehigh78 | March 14, 2008 at 12:06 PM
Yep Mile, it is really nice to have a real update. Now I suppose we can get about 10 threads based on this one update, with about 150 comments per thread...until it finally happens. If I'm betting the day it will happen...I'm going to say the 26th. GET IT DONE
Posted by: Aduncaroo | March 14, 2008 at 12:09 PM
Glad to see a lot of cubs fans coming down to earth. They are prospects not one is guarenteed. You are getting a top five second baseman and you will have a legit chance of winning the nl now. All you need now is some insurance behind the plate and a second centerfielder just in case. Lofton and damian miller maybe.
Posted by: joemorgan=#1 | March 14, 2008 at 12:15 PM
1. DeRosa can't play SS on an everyday basis. A game here and there to rest someone, sure, but he doesn't have the range to play there as a starter.
2. Lots of anti-Theriot sentiment! The guy had a lousy September, likely due to it being his first full season in the majors and a bit of a fatigue factor, and it caused his overall numbers to drop. Is he a Gold Glove caliber defender there? Certainly not, but he's adequate enough, makes good contact, hits to the opposite field, and takes walks. I'd personally like to see him hitting in the #2 spot if/when Roberts comes over. Go with:
1. Roberts, 2B
2. Theriot, SS
3. Lee, 1B
4. Soriano, LF
5. Ramirez, 3B
6. Fukudome, RF
7. Soto, C.
8. Pie, CF
Posted by: CubFanForLife | March 14, 2008 at 12:39 PM
I know I'm playing with fire here, but any thoughts on why, if this is the deal- as most of us agree- it hasn't been announced. Just the usual, 'wheels turn slowly,' thing or is Angelos holding things up asking for more? Hope it's not the latter, though there IS a part of me that thinks it's possible that Mac is still trying to think of a way to get Colvin. Like I said- dangerous game. We're woefully short on position prospects, but this is a good offer and will likely be the final tally (or very close to it, depending on Cedeno/Patterson- doubt Hendry would fight too hard to hang on to Patterson this late in the game if its a sticking point- and whether Payton/Marquis are included). Neither of the latter (w/Marquis more of a give than a get) would be enough for Colvin (though switching him out for Ceda AND sending Payton + $ might be...) I still don't understand why McPhail wants Ceda. BP arms are a dime a dozen and, with the exception of Rivera and Hoffman (and a couple others), tend to have a couple good years, then flame out. Finally, Adun- I think you might be right about the Wilken thing...unofficially. I still can't imagine its contractual or anything, but you're right...they seem to be going out of their way to NOT include any of his picks. I could see it being a back alley, handshake kind of thing. Otherwise, it doesn't make sense that Colvin's name would've come up to begin with. Hendry would've just said, 'Can't do it, it's in the guy's deal,' and that would have been the end of it. If it is true, though, enjoy BRob...He's likely the last trade acquisition you guys are going to get for a loooooong time. Who else is left to trade?! Marshall? Patterson? Pickin's are getting slim.
Posted by: milehigh78 | March 14, 2008 at 12:41 PM
On another note, I now know more about the Cubs organization than any other team in the majors, with the exception of the O's! (LOL) Guess I'll have to make you my NL fave.
Posted by: milehigh78 | March 14, 2008 at 12:42 PM
joemorgan,
I don't think the Cubs need anything at Catcher at all. They have Blanco, one of the better backups around, and they have Koyie Hill in AAA, who can't hit at all, but plays very good defense. There is no reason to worry about the Catcher spot at all. They should have brought up Soto after the Barrett trade last year frankly. I still don't understand why they didn't...
Posted by: Aduncaroo | March 14, 2008 at 12:42 PM
I disagree that the Cubs need insurance behind the plate. Blanco is healthy and he's a fine back up catcher. His defense is stellar, he's one of the best in the league at throwing out baserunners, and he calls a great game. (He was even Greg Maddux's personal catcher when he was with Atlanta.) Sure, he can't hit a worth lick, but that's why he's a backup catcher. If backup catchers could hit, they'd be starting catchers. :-)
Posted by: CubFanForLife | March 14, 2008 at 12:44 PM
That lineup is diesel, CubFanForLife! Especially if Soto and Pie develop. Monstrous. How's Fuku looked this spring? Is dude for real? Roberts is going to score 300 runs this year with those guys behind him (LOL)! They may as well just start him on third and save the opposing team the time (and the ridiculous number of pitches he forces opposing pitchers to throw). BTW- I can't believe nobody called Ndano on that ridiculous Soto/Hernandez theory. Let's see: the O's/Angelos decided that, after watching Soto this spring, they'd rather have creaky old Ramon Hernandez at 30-something over the stud up-and-comer?! I don't care if we have Wieters waiting in the wings, you don't turn down a top prospect who's already proven himself capable of rocking MLB pitching for an over the hill backstop whose numbers have plummeted from year to year since we acquired him.
Posted by: milehigh78 | March 14, 2008 at 12:49 PM
Aduncaroo- the reason they didn't bring up Soto after the Barrett deal is because at that point, no one really knew he was any good! He came out of nowhere last year at Iowa. He was a .261 career hitter in 3 professional seasons before he put up that monster year in '07 and became the Pacific Coast League MVP. At the time they made the Barrett deal, Soto had only been playing at Iowa for a couple of months so it would have been hard to determine he was ready for ML duty after just having a couple of hot months at the plate.
Posted by: CubFanForLife | March 14, 2008 at 12:50 PM
I'm on fire. Get typin' people! It's Friday and this deal is gonna go down soon. I need to chat! (otherwise I'll be forced to actually do work and be productive- shudder!)
Posted by: milehigh78 | March 14, 2008 at 12:52 PM
this all makes me very nervous. If we get rid of Marquis, Gallagher, and Veal that leaves us with a roataion of Z, Lilly, Lieber, Hill, and Dempster with Marshall as another starter. Hart looks to have a spot in the pen, so i dont know who our other backup starter would be.
Posted by: Sabinus | March 14, 2008 at 12:55 PM
You're right CFFL, but Soto HAD been killin' it in AA (I think) and any Dominican kid over the age of 14 can hit better than Kendall (that's why they're ALL signed...that country's entire GDP is going to come from baseball by the year 2020! I'm telling you, scouts are now paying the women down there for every male born. They're signing them at birth based on projection. 'Sure he's 7 pounds 3 ounces NOW, but kid's gonna be a MONSTER!') Baseball America was saying the same thing as Adun at the time of the Kendall signing... 'Why not just bring up Soto and see what he can do.' I remember distinctly. Can you buy Dominican babies on the internet like the way Madonna and Angelina Jolie got their kids?! I'm telling you, it's a better investment than real estate!
Posted by: milehigh78 | March 14, 2008 at 01:01 PM
Yup...I'm goin' to hell.
Posted by: milehigh78 | March 14, 2008 at 01:02 PM
MileHigh-
It really is a murderer's row of a lineup, especially if Soto can continue to hit like he did at the end of last season and Pie can do, well, anything at all! Lol. And I think we all knew Ndano was crazy when he started talking about the Cubs moving Soto and Marmol. :-) Fukudome has looked pretty good this spring. He's only hitting .259, but he's VERY patient at the plate and is getting on base at a .432 clip. He has said through his interpreter that he is still adjusting to the "moving fastballs" that most major-leaguers throw, which he rarely, if ever, saw in Japan. In the field, he's SICK. He has a cannon for an arm, covers a ton of ground, and looks really, really smooth out there. He's obviously an extremely polished defender. I saw one play where he caught a ball at the warning track and threw a laser to 1st off of flat feet to double someone off. The runner made it back to first by an eyelash, but after the game Piniella joked that they should have called him out just because of the degree of difficulty of the play that Fukudome made.
Posted by: CubFanForLife | March 14, 2008 at 01:06 PM
I think you are right mile, you are going to hell. On another note...
"Aduncaroo- the reason they didn't bring up Soto after the Barrett deal is because at that point, no one really knew he was any good!"
They brought up Koyie Hill! Soto is just as good defensively and had been murdering the ball for those couple of months that they were talking about. The catcher's last year were horrendous, and Soto, who has ALWAYS been a plus defender, was KILLING the ball, even if it was only 2 or 3 months. And they bring up Hill? Come on dude, there is no way to justify that...
Posted by: Aduncaroo | March 14, 2008 at 01:07 PM
I'll hold off on comments because an actual deal has not gone down yet. But I will say it appears some O's fans were closer to reality on this than most of us Cub fans in the beginning. I was not one of those Cub fans giving silly trade proposals. In fact, I never gave one single trade proposal. Just guys I thought might be in a package. So far, I was real close. But I got to say, I did not think our top 3 pitching prospects were going. I thought it could be 2 of 3.
Posted by: studio179 | March 14, 2008 at 01:10 PM
Just remember everyone...those "crazy proposals" that the Cubs fans were making came from these VERY SAME PEOPLE writing now that its Gallagher\Ceda\Veal\Cedeno. At the beginning, they were saying a package around Gallagher and Cedeno, and THEY were the ones mentioning Murton and Marshall etc. Keep this all in perspective here, if you didn't believe them before, why belive them now?
Posted by: Aduncaroo | March 14, 2008 at 01:13 PM
Maybe it was a service time issue for Soto?
Posted by: Dan Stabbingworth | March 14, 2008 at 01:14 PM
Now it looks more like reality. We have to face facts. The O's would be getting a great return on Roberts.
Posted by: studio179 | March 14, 2008 at 01:18 PM
Studio,
What makes them any more credible now? Just saying, they aren't always completely credible
"Maybe it was a service time issue for Soto?"
Maybe, but in the thick of a playoff chase, you would think they would get over that. Especially considering the prospects lost trading for Kendall. Although we do get a sandwich pick for him at least...
Posted by: Aduncaroo | March 14, 2008 at 01:24 PM
I honestly believe the original offer was Gallagher, Veal, Cedeno and Petrick. Petrick is a holdover from the McPhail regime and similar to Ceda in terms of size and velocity. The O’s scouts were in attendance when the Cubs put in Petrick for his first (and only) spring game. He pitched to one batter and got pulled because his shoulder injury hasn’t completely healed. The next day we heard that the O’s were going to have to scout our pitchers 2 or 3 times before making a decision….hmmm. Well, Petrick never recovered and was in the first wave of cuts and may start the season on the DL. No way McPhail is taking a chance on an injured pitcher after what happened with Patton. So my thought last week was that the Cubs had no choice but to upgrade the deal with Ceda -- a healthier, more projectable version of Petrick. What I’m hoping is that the Cubs get an additional player in return for the upgrade – maybe Payton to be our backup CF – but I’m not counting on it.
Posted by: crunchy1 | March 14, 2008 at 01:29 PM
Aduncaroo, what prospects did we give up for Kendall? For some reason I thought it was just Bowen.
Posted by: CubFanForLife | March 14, 2008 at 01:34 PM
I just read the Chicago Sun Times article. Gordon is saying it could be 6 for 2. Last week it was 5 for 2. That means it would be:
Gallagher, Cedeno, Ceda, Veal, Marquis(?) and someone else
for
Roberts and Payton
I guess next week rumors say it goes to 7 or 8 for 2.
Posted by: studio179 | March 14, 2008 at 01:39 PM
"Just remember everyone...those "crazy proposals" that the Cubs fans were making came from these VERY SAME PEOPLE writing now that its Gallagher\Ceda\Veal\Cedeno. At the beginning, they were saying a package around Gallagher and Cedeno, and THEY were the ones mentioning Murton and Marshall etc. Keep this all in perspective here, if you didn't believe them before, why belive them now?"
Adun-
One word: time. It wasn't so much that I didn't believe THEM before; I just didn't believe that the O's would OK such a deal. And they didn't. Similarly, it appears they haven't OK'd this most recent proposal. I have to think they will (or some variation thereof), but nevertheless, it's not about some hack's POV, but rather who's controlling (for lack of a better word) the deal and what the PERCEIVED value is for the central piece(s). In this case, the reporters- who I also think may have been projecting some of their own feelings with regard to value- tended to be Chicago-based and were relaying information provided to them by those within the Cubs organization. Of course the Cubs were offering less at the beginning. It's called negotiating. You don't START with '3 of my best prospects and a shortstop who can start for your crappy team.' You work up to that...as it appears they have. Had the leak (or whatever you want to call it) come from Baltimore's end, you might have heard something equally absurd like, 'Rich Hill, Felix Pie, Sean Gallagher, and Cedeno!' Oh wait, we DID hear something along those lines over here. It was no closer to the truth than the Gallagher/Marshall, Cedeno, Murton rumors...or so it now seems. Hindsight is, of course, 20/20, but I think many of the more objective posters on this site realized that IF the deal were to go down, the players swapped would be somewhere in the middle of said extremes...which is where we find ourselves. Only the idiots- if you'll forgive my bluntness- jumped on the low-ball/high-ball proposals (and even that is unfair- let's just say they let their fan-dom get the better of them). All of this isn't to say that what we're hearing now is definitive or wholly accurate, but, as is often the case, the truth 'looks' different; it 'looks' like the truth, while rumors...well...look like rumors. If O's fans are screaming bloody murder that a speculative offer seems WAY off, it probably is; just as the opposite is true and a proposal that skews too far the other way can be dismissed as idle chatter. The truth is in the middle and here we are.
Posted by: milehigh78 | March 14, 2008 at 01:41 PM
Cubfanforlife...
Looking back, it was minor league left hander Jerry Blevens...whom I know absolutely nothing about. Anyway, all I'm saying is they had the better option already in house, so there was no reason to make that trade.
Posted by: Aduncaroo | March 14, 2008 at 01:45 PM
I'll also add this: it very well could be that this report is just as erroneous as those nutty proposals we once fought over! Hell, we might find out that, in fact, the two clubs are close to an agreement EXACTLY LIKE the ones I'm dismissing (the Murton, Marshall, Cedeno stuff) I'm just saying- think with your head, not your heart and you'll probably find yourself in the right ballpark.
Posted by: milehigh78 | March 14, 2008 at 01:46 PM
The delay was Hendry and McPhail playing chicken. Also, the leak that Ceda was “untouchable” was obviously planned. The Cubs had that option in their back pocket the entire time. They figured they would try to get Roberts for a Gallagher, Cedeno, Veal and another, lesser player than Ceda (as I said, probably Petrick). The Cubs probably put a date on that offer and if the O’s didn’t take it they could suddenly spring Ceda into the deal. Now it looks like a major concession to make McPhail feel like he got something out of the negotiations. And with Ceda more of a brand name with all the buzz around him, it’s a deal he can take back to Angelos and the O’s fans and say…”Hey, I waited this out and I got these 3 top 10 prospects – including Ceda, the prize that the Cubs said they wouldn’t give up…” He can now go back to Baltimore and the press will be happy with the deal. It’s all gamesmanship – on both sides. That’s why one club official was confident the deal would be made by the third week of March – because he knew the Cubs planned to relent on Ceda around this time. The Cubs are giving up a lot – but not as much as people seem to think. Gallagher was a given. Veal and Ceda are great arms but raw. Neither has command of their breaking stuff. In the case of Veal, if he can’t command his curve, he’ll either flop or become a reliever. Add to this that the Cubs are dealing from two areas of surplus – left-handed starters and right-handed power relievers and it’s the best deal Hendry can make under the circumstances. The caveat on the Cubs side is… If Veal does figure it out then the O’s are going to come out of this looking really good. The O’s made a nice deal…but the emergence of Veal would make it a great deal.
Posted by: crunchy1 | March 14, 2008 at 01:48 PM
Adun, I think Cub fans have been getting a beating for the most part. Sure, I read some fans trade proposals that seemed one sided. But I think that got lumped in with us Cub fans that were trying to be logical and put some fair thought in the rumors. It appears...appears because no deal yet, that the rumors are heading to proposals that I and most Cub fans were not leading to at all. 5 for 1, 6 for 2...did you see that? I did not.
Posted by: studio179 | March 14, 2008 at 01:49 PM
and mile...I agree with that to a point. But at some point, if you want it done, you should just put a final offer on the table and say thats it....take it or leave it. I know about negotiating and starting low and all...but time is of the essense for the Cubs here, so Hendry needs to get this moving. This may be his final offer. We can't wait a whole lot longer here. Fans that believe the reporters aren't totally at fault...thats what this site pretty much runs off of...and sometimes they are dead on. I don't know, we'll see. I just hope whatever happens, it happens sooner rather than later.
Posted by: Aduncaroo | March 14, 2008 at 01:50 PM
Dan Stabbingworth-
A service time issue? With the playoffs on the line?! You could be right, but that seems crazy in retrospect. Still...makes more sense than any other theory I've heard. Oops, Adun already covered that.
Posted by: milehigh78 | March 14, 2008 at 01:50 PM