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Extending Young Starters

By Tim Dierkes [March 17, 2008 at 2:00pm CST]

Buying out the arbitration years of young starting pitchers has become a trend in recent years. These are usually very team-friendly deals, often with option years for the last year of arb eligibility and the first of free agency. We've seen Chris Young, Matt Cain, James Shields, Noah Lowry, and Ian Snell opt for security rather than maximize their year-to-year earnings. Which young starters might be next for an extension?

Rich Hill - The 28 year-old southpaw will hit arbitration before the 2010 season. He posted a 3.92 ERA in his first full season in '07 and has tossed 318 career innings. I haven't read anything about the Cubs considering signing him to an extension.
Felix Hernandez - The Ms have already made an offer to Felix, who turns 22 in April. He's already thrown 465 innings in his career.
Fausto Carmona - The 24 year-old has 289 career innings, posting a stellar first full year in '07.
Scott Kazmir - The 24 year-old only has two arb years left, and it looks like both parties may prefer going year to year. He's logged 570 innings already.
Adam Wainwright - The 26 year-old is arb-eligible after this season, and I expect the Cards to look into an extension for him. He's thrown 279 innings.
Tom Gorzelanny - Gorzelanny, 25, has 269 career innings. Another solid healthy season and I imagine the Bucs might offer him a deal similar to Snell's.
John Maine - Preliminary extension talks have begun with Maine, who's arb-eligible after this season. He turns 27 in May and has 324 career innings.
Cole Hamels - The 24 year-old southpaw has 315 career innings. He called his recent renewal a "low blow," but won't make a million bucks in '09 either.
Jered Weaver - The 25 year-old probable Opening Day starter has logged 284 innings. A big year could lead to talks.
Some other young starters who could get long-term deals with strong '08 seasons: Jeremy Guthrie, Brian Bannister, Wandy Rodriguez, Dustin McGowan, Tim Lincecum, Chad Billingsley, Zack Greinke, Kyle Kendrick, Yovani Gallardo, Matt Garza, and Phil Hughes.

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Comments

Justin Verlander?

Posted by: pmc765 | March 17, 2008 at 02:15 PM

Francisco Liriano will hit arb in '09. Not sure about Scott Baker and Boof! but I imagine all of them are in line for contracts if they pitch well this year.

Posted by: twinstapir | March 17, 2008 at 02:19 PM

Lincecum will probably get the same deal that Lowry and Cain got...4 yr...12 mill

Posted by: zito4cyyoung | March 17, 2008 at 02:23 PM

Verlander is definitely a candidate but I didn't include him because I know he signed a big league deal through '09 when he was drafted.

To me Boof seems kind of like Joe Blanton...nice guy to have around perhaps but not someone to lock up.

Posted by: Tim Dierkes | March 17, 2008 at 02:39 PM

If Kazmir gets an extension it'll be with someone else. I thought the recent rumors were he'll be traded at the end of the year.

Posted by: start_wearing_purple | March 17, 2008 at 02:40 PM

I never saw a legitimate rumor about the Rays trading Kazmir. 90% speculation, 10% truth maybe.

Posted by: Tim Dierkes | March 17, 2008 at 02:55 PM

i dont know why guthrie would want to sign an extention with baltimore. i mean, sure he's basically their ace, but have they been out of the bottom two in the AL East since Ripkin Jr left?

Posted by: fgsfsfbbbrd | March 17, 2008 at 02:55 PM

githrie would just sign through his arb years. nobody wants to play for baltimore but the team controls him until then anyways so he might as well have job security. these contracts young pitchers have been getting really do make sense for both sides. pitchers get hurt. if they are healthy they r expensive. it makes sense. if kazmir is available i think the cards will offer up the aaa squad in its entirety for him. point is hes not going anywhere until free agency. they also better sign wainwright. he is mentally strong and a future ace. also if i were the ms i would get felix signed. hes going to bust out this year and will get very expensive.

Posted by: Joelcards | March 17, 2008 at 03:03 PM

What if Joba has a Liriano-type season?

Posted by: maximumpotential | March 17, 2008 at 03:34 PM

"What if Joba has a Liriano-type season?"

I sure hope so. Then we won't have to hear about Joba anymore until '10

Posted by: jumanjifan01 | March 17, 2008 at 03:36 PM

Chien-Ming Wang also should be in this post.

Posted by: Tim Dierkes | March 17, 2008 at 03:48 PM

Does Rich Hill really qualify? He's John McCain old compared to the rest of this list. If he hits arb in 2010, that put him at 30 years old. I am not sure it's really necessary. I think you could go year to year for a couple more, although I doubt he'd be particularly happy about that.

Posted by: screaminzab | March 17, 2008 at 03:51 PM

i have a baseball glove signed by rich hill. anyone want it? its nice with silver ink. maybe u crazy cubs fans would like. being a cards fan i really need to get rid of it.

Posted by: Joelcards | March 17, 2008 at 04:21 PM

Yeah Joel, I want it. Do you live in St. Louis?

Posted by: Aduncaroo | March 17, 2008 at 04:52 PM

i live in columbia, mo but ill be in st louis for at least 20 games this year. i wasnt 100% serious about selling it. not because i like hill or the cubs but because i like the glove. its my batting practice glove. its mizuno and black with silver auto and 53 written on the pinky finger of the glove. i would be happy to bring it if we were both at the game. maybe early may when the cubs come to st louis? im probably going to about 5 or so games in april as well. i figure this year i better go to games early in the season while there is still some hope.

Posted by: Joelcards | March 17, 2008 at 05:24 PM

also the glove is a lefthanders glove, like me and like rich hill. it really does look sweet. if this was wainwrights auto it would be hanging on my wall. since its hill its in my closet. ha

Posted by: Joelcards | March 17, 2008 at 05:26 PM

joel, ill be in kansas city this weekend, want to make the trip out to me? ill pay for your gas =)

Posted by: bronx | March 17, 2008 at 07:38 PM

sure bronx, ill meet u at the corner of your ass and my elbow.

Posted by: Joelcards | March 17, 2008 at 08:50 PM

Joel,

I'll be at a ton of games, and I obviously live in St. Louis. I'd definitely interested, he has been my favorite pitching "prospect" for about 4 years now...I can't get enough of watching that nasty curve. I'm also a lefty...but I doubt I'd use the glove if I got it. Let me know if you are serious about selling it...depending on what you ask, I'm definitely interested.

Posted by: Aduncaroo | March 17, 2008 at 09:16 PM

I also have a relative with season tickets in section 134 I think...like 20 rows up from Albert. We might be able to work something out there for a game that he doesn't have taken already....

Posted by: Aduncaroo | March 17, 2008 at 09:22 PM

ok well it sounds like we can work something out. worst case we both watch cardinals game which is not a bad case at all. i know where 134 is. very solid, good for foul balls on cardinals side. how many do they have? i would need two, one for me and one for friend. i get tickets on ebay so thats not a big deal but im always listening. i would give u email or phone number but not sure thats a good idea. i dont want some of these guys ive been talking smack on calling me or sending me pictures of penises(superbad,very funny). i will probably be going to the second rockies game and if not than definitely one of the nationals games. we will be in touch.

Posted by: Joelcards | March 17, 2008 at 10:31 PM

that is also cool that u r a lefty. lefties think differently(thats a nice way of saying lefties r smarter).

Posted by: Joelcards | March 17, 2008 at 10:33 PM

Agreed. We think with the right (correct) side of the brain! I have two when I have any tickets, so we will be in touch. I'll try and find you when I get some. You are right, they are awesome for foul balls. My nephew caught one last year in the playoffs.

Posted by: Aduncaroo | March 17, 2008 at 11:08 PM

enough with the lovefest already. a rich hill glove isn't worth jack. i have a jersey signed by rich in my office and i'm thinking of selling it. wait, no i'm not! why? because hill legitimately deserves to be on this list. the cubs were right to wait on hill and allow him to develop in the minors. in his first full season he had a very productive year and there's no reason to believe it won't happen again for the next few.

Posted by: msk86 | March 17, 2008 at 11:18 PM

"a rich hill glove isn't worth jack."

but then you go on to praise the guy? Thats funny. There is no love fest here, just two guys talking. Is that alright with you? I totally agree with you about Hill though, the Cubs were absolutely correct to wait on him. its a win win for the team, because they have him through his prime years for next to nothing.

Posted by: Aduncaroo | March 18, 2008 at 10:03 AM

"My nephew caught one last year in the playoffs. "

Sorry, they obviously weren't in the playoffs last year. It was two years ago, when they won the whole thing.

Posted by: Aduncaroo | March 18, 2008 at 10:04 AM

sounds good aduncaroo. if u can get the tickets i might just come down by myself. i dont really care whether i know u or not. we both obviously like baseball so thats fine with me. only negative i see is driving down by myself but ive done it plenty of times before.row 20 is very nice. new section starts at 19 so only one row in front i believe. and what is that other guy talking about? no clue. ok back to baseball on espn. nationals/tigers yippee.

Posted by: Joelcards | March 18, 2008 at 12:50 PM

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