Heyman's Sabathia Suitors

Don't count out the Reds. Griffey's eligible for a buyout next year, which frees up 12M.

Keep in mind that the Reds were in the mix for Erik Bedard, knowing that he would require a similar contract if they resigned him.

I'd like to see the Reds go after him. They've been looking for a stud southpaw forever and with Griffey and/or Dunn coming off the books next year it'd be pretty to see Harang/Sabathia/Arroyo/Bailey/Cueto in 2009. He'd be the Bedard of this year without having to give up all our prized prospects. Extend Dunn and sign Sabathia= NL Central 2009 champs.

I happen to be a big Sabathia fan so my initial instinct was to shoot down the Colon comparison, but numbers-wise they are pretty close at this point in their careers, service time-wise. The big difference is that Sabathia started his MLB career 4 years younger than Colon. So, even if Sabathia follows Colon's path and starts breaking down at 33, that still puts him 5 or 6 years into what will likely be a 6 or 7 year contract.

I wonder if he'd consider taking a discount to stay in Cleveland. A core of Martinez, Hafner, Sizemore, Carmona, Sabathia, and Peralta would be a team that could conted for years. But other than that I see Steinbrenner pulling out all the stops for Sabathia if the Yanks don't win it all.

Reds are an intriguing possibility, Sabathia/Harang would jump as the most dominating 1-2 punch in the NL.

But honestly, I see him as a Yankee or an Indian next year.

the cardinals have a fair bit of $$ coming off the books next year and are primed to head back into "win now" mode with carpenter coming back healthy. while i don't think they'd sign anyone to a $100m contract, they will probably seriously consider signing sabathia.

Why not the Braves? If they lose Teixeira, I can almost guarantee Wren will go after atleast one of the big name free agents next offseason. With Glavine, Hampton and Teixeira's salaries off the book, I think the Braves could make a very nice offer for the big lefty.

stellar, it's actually a lot closer than you think. Their WHIPs last year were the same, Harang had a better k/9 rate, and has thrown 200+ innings in three seasons to Sabathia's one. His ERA has been .50 higher than Sabathia's for the alst two seasons, I'll concede. But still, Harang is someone who could be a co-staff ace with Sabathia.

You should do this with other big free agents like Teixeira, I enjoy reading posts like this.

i really cant picture CC going to NY... i guess money talks but i really only seeing CC playing in Cleveland or California next year....

Ok I know this may sound really out there but what about the Nationals ass a dark horse... They move into a new stadium and are going with youth... they have a small payroll so adding a huge contract won't hurt them that much... also if they want to contend in the East they are going to have to make a move or 2.. I doubt it'll happen but it has an outside shot

You know, Sabathia to the Royals would be hilarious. A Sabathia/Meche/Bannister/Davies/Hochevar rotation would make them one of the strangly better rotations out there.

I think the chances of the Braves landing Sabathia if they lose Teixera are slim to none. You have to look at salary increases for next year too, not just what payroll they will be shedding... They'd have Tex's $12mil, Hamptons $8mil (per accounting purposes, thats what is "on the books"), and if Glavine retires another $7mil freed up... Thats $27mil right there - However, if you look at the actual (or estimated) increase in salaries for McCann: +$3.5mil; Francoeur: +$4mil; Kelly Johnson: +$3mil; Matt Diaz: +$1.5mil; Rafael Soriano: +$3mil; and say another $3mil in random salary arbitration increases like Yates, Gonzalez, and Infante the Braves would only be looking at around $9mil extra to spend ($27mil subtracted, $18mil added)...

Plus, I'd much rather pay Tex big time money over Sabathia - Hitters are inherently more valuable than pitchers (play every day, less of an injury risk, etc...)

Bottom line, unless the payroll jumps to $100+ mil I see no way that the Braves could get Sabathia...

Angels ~ too many guys they need to lock up already, with plenty of SP prospects in the wings and a park which helps youngsters look better than they really are. Plus, they really cant dramatically increase payroll, it has been an issue every year in Anaheim despite being perceived a non-issue by people outside the area.

Dodgers ~ see above

Tigers ~ too many other places they will be spending a fortune – C and 2 OF spots (or OF and DH) plus raises to everyone in the rotation because of recent contracts, the need to lock up Cabrera, and a question on SS (pick up Renteria or sign someone else?). They would be pushing NY salary if they were to also add CC.

Yankees ~ depends on if its Hank or Hal/Cashman in charge. If Hank ~ yeah… If Hal/Cashman ~ no, they go with the 10+ kids they have in the high-minors/ML-camp to fill most rotation spots and just sign a mid-level guy to eat innings.

Giants ~ no. Cain/Linc/Zito already make/will-make too much in the rotation. They need hitters much more than pitchers, and will spend their cash there.

Cubs ~ actually might be an interesting situation. If Zambrano doesn’t provide more than SP2-type results again in 2008 then they might be looking for an Ace. If they were able to move the cash owed to Marquis and dump the money they are paying to Dempster/Lieber then all of a sudden the salary is covered. They could find a 5th guy from within so they wouldn’t need even more cash spent on the rotation either…

Tex/Hou/Atl/Cin I guess could all be possibilities under certain circumstances, but I really think CC either wants to be in the BayArea/possibly-LA or Cleveland. I know he will get quite a bit of interest, but I think it would be more from surprise teams (possibly TB or Wash or maybe Pitt) than from what people perceive the obvious suitors (if he leaves)

if the cubs were to sign c.c. this might be a better option.

1. c.c.
2. z
3. hill
4. gallagher
5. veal

I would trade hill and try to get a shortstop. this offsets some of the money c.c. would get by trading off lilly.

DonCoburleone - I completely agree with you on the Braves. I've been trying to make this point lately, you can't just look at contracts coming off the books without considering salary increases. No way the Braves get into a bidding war for CC.

darkstar1661 - completely disagree with your take on the Yankees. Yes they like their young players, but none of them will be as good as CC will be next year. He is a legit ace and that's something the Yanks need. Money won't be an issue and let's see which of the Yanks Generation Trey kids actually pan out by next season.

Dark,

I believe Dempster and Lieber are both free agents after the year anyway...so trading Marquis is really the only hard part of freeing up that money. Still, there are a lot of players getting big raises. I don't know if they can afford what it would take to outbid the yankees. What do you think, 6 years 141 mil? Thats my guess on what a Yanks offer would be...and I just don't see anyone else beating that.

I'm only going to throw this out there because it's been on my mind for a little while since Bedard signed a 1 year deal last month instead of a long-term deal and so far I'm not thrilled with how he's handling the press conferences, he doesn't seem overly comfortable and that could change by next offseason or it might not. Sabathia by the way is nowhere near the same story as Colon. Aside from both pitching for the Indians and having an above-average fastball, they have nothing in common. Colon is 6'0" and 260 pounds plus the weight of whatever didn't escape from his clutches at the buffet line, I mean that guy must've been down in Vegas buffet hopping like Paris Hilton goes club hopping. Anywho, I'd say he's closer to 285-290 lbs. now-a-days. Sabathia is 6'7" and 275 lbs. which is like a guy being 6'0" and 225-230lbs. it's a lot of weight for a guy that runs a lot, but he's a pitcher who gets to rest for 4-5 day in a row. I'd be more concerned with Prince Fielder being Colon size at 6'0" and 260lbs. than I would with Sabathia's size. If Prince Fielder doesn't stop eating so damn much and get his butt in shape, he'll be worth almost nothing as a 1B when compared with his counterparts. Fielder will either suffer continual injuries or he'll drop in power to 30 HRs every year from the constant wear-and-tear of the season with no real opportunity to DH outside of interleague play.

That darkhorse team that someone alluded to, could be the Mariners. Sure it's a longshot in some estimations, but here's my thinking....

Silva is a Mariner for 4 years because he was just signed to that contract and won't get traded one year into it and more likely than not his contract wouldn't make sense for most teams, even in the 4th season of the deal let alone next season.

Felix will get tied into a long term deal, but worst case he's a Mariner for 4 more years including 2008.

Bedard, Batista, and Washburn will each have one more year left on their deals following the 2008 season.

I realize that Seattle was kept off this list because of their rotation being solid top-to-bottom, but I could see a huge problem coming over the hill if they don't sign Bedard long-term and if I can see it, so can the Mariners brass.

I think if for no other reason that they would obviously improve their rotation by dropping either Washburn or Batista for Sabathia this deal could get done. The real motivator would be that three starters would be leaving after 2008 and the last time that happened they filled those holes with Batista, Weaver, and Ramirez and 2/3 of the new guys were the best at being the worst last year in terms of starters!

If they sign Sabathia than they gain leverage in negotiating with Bedard and if Erik leaves they still have a solid 1-2 punch atop the rotation. If Bedard decides to stay and signs the long anticipated extension, you would then have by far the best rotation in baseball. You trade away Washburn or Batista whomever has the most value and regardless of which guy stays, they are inherently better off and with the contracts Washburn and Batista have, they would only being raising their payroll around $10MM for one season and then the player they keep out of Batista and Washburn would be given the green light to walk and they would fill the last spot in the rotation with a young guy like Phillippe Aumont or Juan Ramirez. Another possibility is that one of Aumont or Ramirez makes a hard push during spring training for a rotation spot in 2009 and it makes both Washburn and Batista expendable.

The Mariners will remain a darkhorse until they see what they have with their current rotation, but with Felix forced to take a major paycut, compared with his ability, over the four years, there is no better time than the present for them to make a huge jump into free agency and with the money coming off the books from Vidro and Sexson they can afford Teixeira to play 1B or Bryan LaHair could keep opening eyes like he has done the last couple spring training camps making the money a real non-issue!

The green light to walk would be after the contract expires. I wasn't very clear, but I'm trying to get ready to leave...

Assuming the Cubs will want to keep Lilly and that they rid themselves of Marquis and Dem They would be right in the mix for C.C.

1. C.C.
2. Big Z
3. Lilly (re-signed)
4. Hill
5. young arm from within system..maybe Jeff Samardzija who they think will be ready.
Now thats a nice looking rotation.

We get it Guru; you are a Mariners fan

ArodMVP217,

It's not my fault that your favorite player can't hit when it matters. All those years of watching the postseason from Texas must have diminished his skills once he reaches the 7th month of the season! What a bum... He's definitely not worth the $310MM over 10 seasons that he got! The curse of A-Rod is alive and well!

So everyone else can throw around the Cubs in every blog, but I'm not aloud to bring up the Mariners?!

“The Mariners will remain a darkhorse until they see what they have with their current rotation, but with Felix forced to take a major paycut, compared with his ability, over the four years, there is no better time than the present for them to make a huge jump into free agency and with the money coming off the books from Vidro and Sexson they can afford Teixeira to play 1B or Bryan LaHair could keep opening eyes like he has done the last couple spring training camps making the money a real non-issue!”

…But their money is probably better spent at the plate, where the team has many more questions. Felix/Bedard/Silva/Washburn/Batista are all signed for 2009 at this point, but I don’t think they are really sure who will be playing at any (or all) of C, 1B, 2B, SS or LF/CF (depends on where Ichiro is) come 2009…

“but Sabathia isn't even the 3rd best lefty in the game behind Santana and Bedard.”

…are you not the person who was stating that Bedard wasn’t an ace because he hasn’t pitched 200IP?

Not a lot of Giants fans commenting but I think CC would be a great fit for the Giros...

We're dumping Durham, Aurilia, and we can decline the options for Winn and Vizquel in '09... Leaving us with close to 20 to 30 mil on top of the money that we saved this year by not signing Barry.

The Giants have a number athletic prospects moving up from AAA that are gonna get a shot at the show this year with another handful of up in coming AA position prospects that are playing well... the FA class next year has no real stars on offense after Texeria and he probably wont wanna come into a pitchers park anyway. Not to mention Angel Villanoa the Giants stud position prospect will be getting closer to playing in the majors in the near future.

Deal the dough for CC and a strong bullpen arm (maybe Joe Nathan - former Giant) and the Giants will have one of the best rotations in MLB history. They have the money and Cain, Linccumm will be locked up for another 4 years.

Not to mention they have some strong pitching prospects they can trade for young bats! No brainer, plus hes from the Bay Area - giving us a better shot at a home town discount.

CC = Giants Dynasty

Dodgers Suck

No I never said that, if anything my argument is that he has pitched an average of 189 innings over the last two seasons, which is only an out per start short of 200 IP. I think too much is made of the number of innings you pitch especially when you consider the bullpen. With the Mariners they may start the season with Rowland-Smith, Dickey, and Baek in their bullpen due to a need for a second lefty besides O'Flaherty if Cesar Jimenez doesn't win the job out of camp, the rule 5 guidelines that dictate Dickey has to stay on the 25-man roster, and finally Baek is out of options. So I'd rather have 6.2 great innings out of Bedard than 7 innings out of just about any other starter not listed in my my top 5!

As far as the positions you talk about, they are reluctant to move Jeff Clement and Rob Johnson down to the minors but they really don't have room on the ML club with Johjima and Burke all ready promised the starting and backup catcher positions on the 25-man. As for 2B and SS, they have Lopez and Betancourt both signed for at least the next 4 seasons each and Betancourt has 5 years left. Ichiro is showing no signs of aging and I would expect him to play CF until his current 5 year contract expires, when he'll be 38 years old and at that point he may move to LF for his final big league contract. In the mean time the question marks would be LF and RF. RF will be Balentien without a doubt and some people think he's ready to play full-time this season, but by next year he'll be in a position to lose the position rather than having to win it, during spring training. LF should be filled by a combination of Charlton Jimerson and Jeremy Reed if they stay in house. It's beyond me why Jimerson can't get any love on the major league level since he kills the ball every time he gets a chance to play and he's a solid fielder with good range. If Reed can escalate his play on the big league level to duplicate his the AVG. along with the HR, RBI, and SB per game ratio... He'd be good for 20 HRs, 20-30 SBs, and 85 RBIs with a .300 AVG. He put up similar numbers to that in the minor leagues with far less ABs. Jimerson was impressive in only 387 ABs over 99 games before getting called up to Seattle. His stat line last year when combining his two stops in the minors: .282 AVG, 61 R, 109 hits, 22 2B, 4 3B, 25 HR, 80 RBI, 35 SB with a 77% success rate, .348 OBP, .553 SLG, .901 OBP

I think you'll see Balentien and Jimerson as the bookends around Ichiro in the Mariners starting outfielders by 2009 and Reed will be the 4th outfielder, Morse and Bloomquist will be the utility everything, Rob Johnson will be the backup catcher and depending on what they do with Johjima Clement will be the starting DH or catcher. The only real questions on offense is 1B Teixeira or LaHair and 3B Beltre or Tuiasosopo/Mangini/Free Agent. Don't kid yourself this offense is not as bad as it looks. There are some young guys about to blossom and they'll surprise you. I'll go on record as saying this team will be a top 4 offense in the AL and top 7 in all of baseball when ranked by runs scored. They won't hit a ton of homeruns, but they have a ton of depth and solid hitters at every position.

If you want their number one at all positions after the 25-man is set here it is, with everyone of these guys having a 70% chance or greater of playing in the major leagues by 2009 if not starting at their position:

some are repeated if they have more than one position and the outfield has lots of flexibility, only Wilson and Balentien shouldn't be a regular in centerfield. Triunfel and young guys like him will be kept in the minors past 2009 to keep depth in the system.

C Jeff Clement, Rob Johnson, Adam Moore
1B Bryan LaHair, Matt Mangini
2B Yung Chi-Chen, Tug Hulett
3B Matt Tuiasosopo, Matt Mangini
SS Carlos Triunfel, Oswaldo Navarro
LF Michael Saunders, Michael Wilson
CF Jeremy Reed, Gregory Halman
RF Wladimir Balentien, Charlton Jimerson

We get it Guru; you are a Mariners fan

Posted by: ArodMVP217 | March 04, 2008 at 03:07 PM

Rofl, damn what a post he made.
I think it's Indians or Yankees, and of course some interest in Boston.

As a Toronto fan, I wouldn't mind seeing it, Burnett's money off the books, and Thomas has an option for next year, think it's 385ABs this year, so they could limit him if they wanted. That being said I think they will get Bedard after 09 instead, unless he absolutely loves it in Seattle.

'09 CC & Furcal to the Yanks, dump Damon, Jeter to LF, Melky to RF, Austin Jackson (think Chris Young) in CF.

CC
Wang
Joba
Hughes
IPK
Karstens/Rasner/Horne/Marquez

SS-Furcal
LF-Jeter
2B-Cano
3B-A-Hole
DH-Matsui
C-Posada
CF-A-Jax
1B-Duncan
RF-Melky

maximumpotential,

That doesnt look like that hot of a lineup for a club with such a high payroll and of course those unrealistic expectations. Spots 5-9 would be getting pretty close to a cake-walk in comparison to what the team usually throws out there…

2009 will see Posada/Matsui regress with another 1+ years on um. Jackson will have had minor to no real ML experience to that point. Duncan/Melky is cake to get through for the rest of the league. I cant imagine they wouldnt spend quite a bit of cash to upgrade atleast RF & 1B...

Melky Car ~ .275/.340/.388 (90 OPS+)
Melky 2007 ~ .273/.327/.391 (89 OPS+)
08 AL Avg CF ~ .272/.340/.414 (99 OPS+)
08 AL-Avg Hitter ~ .271/.338/.423 (100 OPS+)
08 AL Avg RF ~ .288/.359/.465 (105 OPS+)

You can see that Melky falls well short of even the AL-Avg CF production, let alone the the AL Avg or AL RF.

Matsui 03 109 OPS+
Matsui 04 137 OPS+
Matsui 05 130 OPS+
Matsui 06 128 OPS+
Matsui 07 123 OPS+

Its not hard to see the pattern. Of particular concern is this split:
Prior to July ~ .269/.349/.433/.782 with 16 2B, 8 HR in 281 PA
In July alone ~ .345/.411/.735/1.146 with 5 2B and 13 HR in 129 PA
After July ~ .270/.363/.413/.776 with 7 2B, 4 3B and 4 HR in 224 PA

No clue what was going on, but that seems more a fluke month than anything else. If you look at the other 5 months though, you have a player somewhere in the .270/.355/.423/.778 ~ which is well short of what he has produced years prior.

Posada will be a 37 YO catcher in 2009. Really, no matter how good he is, I cant imagine seeing his production being that high at the age of 37 ~ well with him playing behind the plate atleast. Also, a good chunk of Posada’s can be explained in the .386 BAbip he experienced last year. If he had produced his normal, his BA would have been in the .280 range, quite different than the .338 he produced…

…Really, I just see that type of 5-9 to be rather easy pickings ~ and way to easy pickings for the Yanks to be fielding…

the offseason before their walk years than you leave Bedard as the only spot in the rotation to fill. I don't think any team has brought in three new starters and done well at all. You just can't screw with the rotation that much and expect good things to happen!

They need stability before the 2009 season begins and that's what we're really talking about. Bringing in C.C. means they aren't going to take a major step back if Bedard doesn't re-up with the Mariners and they aren't having to shop for three starters after 2009. I agree that Teixeira is set for a decent to obsene payday and it could be the Mariners writing his checks out for the next 7 years starting in 2009, but I truly believe that signing Sabathia doesn't preclude them from bolstering their offense.

You are correct darkstar, there is almost no way in hell that they get even a good number of them to contribute in the next year, whether because of trades, being blocked at the major league level, promotion-demotion when they stumble, etc.

If the Mariners can replace one of the outfield positions most likely rightfield with Balentien and then get a leftfielder in trade for Batista or Washburn after signing C.C., then they could upgrade over Wilkerson and Ibanez without even spending more money. I'll speculate that a team like the Giants would bring in a veteran lefty, especially if they end up trading Lowry to the ChiSox. Hell, I'd take Fred Lewis for Washburn straight up if we were able to sign Sabathia. Also Lewis would be able to replace Ichiro in CF when the time comes or even allow Ichiro to go back to RF and Balentien could play LF. Either way, a trade like that allows the Mariners to keep the talent coming in and find fiscal ways of lowering the overall payroll in order to keep their four or five all-stars in Ichiro, Beltre, Bedard, Putz, and maybe Felix depending on which one shows up this year, as well as bring in a guy like Teixeira and/or Sabathia.

Guru, but you are throwing out a ton of what-ifs and tinkering moves to try and force it to possibly fit. I mean; not resign Bedard, Sign CC, trade Washburn, trade Batista and hope all the fielding positions correct themselves or are fixed by the trades? I just don’t see it, the team has 6 (or 7 including Morrow) SP options for 2009 in house and possible questions in the lineup. CC would be an improvement, but his longterm cost and amount of tinkering needed to make it fit make it seem unrealistic to try to pull off instead of just upgrading the more obvious needs to begin with. Besides, why not just offer more to Bedard to get the deal done instead of go through all that work to pay CC more than you were going to pay Bedard to start? I just don’t see it as anything more than a stretch; I think it’s a possibility I guess, but a really slim one that is no where near worth it… Tex makes since, obvious dramatic upgrade that takes no tinkering to fit ~ CC though…

I think he is implying teh 5-9 spots will be below average for a yankee offense

I like the furcal + CC + Resign Abreu - JD - Matsui (room for Posada/Miranda)

Furcal SS
Jeter LF
Abreu RF 'til he loses it
Alex 3B
Cano 2B 'til he improves k/BB rate
Posada C
Duncan/Miranda 1B Platoon |OR| Big Tex
Montero/Posada/Cabrera/Jeter share it like ANA
Ajax/Melky CF

CC/Sheets(at less yrs)
Wang
Hughes
Joba
IPK/Pettitte(hey, if the price is right)