Smoltz Situation Could Prompt Trade

uh... i think that's what this post is about. i don't think they're going to put him in the bullpen to be the mop up guy.

and him switching to closer is painful to a couple of my fantasy teams. :(

There is NO way Wren should give up anything remotely close to Heyward for Blanton. Away from that park, he is a back end starter. I've been extremely disappointed in Wren to date but a move like that and my concerns would certainly be validated. If we can't get a front line starter in a deal, none of our top prospects should be on the block. Jones, Lillibridge...I could see them maybe (I personally wouldn't touch Blanton) but if he gives up someone like Heyward I'll be extremely disappointed in Wren and JS for walking away when he saw he had a tough road ahead. He has calculated almost every move he has made his entire career. He saw KC's team was going to have some tough times and liked what BC had done with the Braves so moved. I think he again saw how tough the next couple seasons would be so walked to save his legacy.

Is Heyward even within the PTBNL window yet?

Isn't Claudio Vargas still without a job? I would be much more inclined to make a deal with Pittsburgh or with San Fran. The idea of James and Reyes both starting scares me.

The only problem I have with any Maddux talk is that truly that's really another 5 inning pitcher. We gain zero longevity out of that one. At least with someone like Blanton or Millwood there's a couple years there you have as a window.

Yeah, but the cost for Blanton (in talent) and Millwood or Arroyo (in dollars) is much higher than someone like Maddux. Maddux isn't cheap (in dollars), but he's only a 1-year expenditure. And Maddux is more than a 5-inning pitcher, last year he averaged 5.8 IP/start and this year he is at 6.4 IP/start.

The Braves also have Lillibridge to offer up in trade talks. He could play above-average defense at SS or CF for a team, though his stock has dropped a little since his bat isn't quite where it was a few years ago. Still, the Braves may want to keep him as a utility guy or as back-up for Escobar/Johnson/Kotsay/Chipper injuries.

Livan Hernandez might be available!

Smoltz has a tendency to talk too much. He wears his heart on his sleeve.

He may not be able to start again, but really no reason to announce that to the press (and all ML GM's) on the day after he gets hurt. Doesn't help our bargaining position.

Anyway, no way I'd trade Heyward for Blanton. I wouldn't mind seeing Lillibridge traded (no place to play)

Bad timing for the Giants.

If Correia or Lowry had been healthy, I'm sure they would have liked to talk to the Braves about Lillibridge - especially if they could move Randy Winn out in the same trade (maybe taking Kotsay back - same $$ - less years).

Lillibridge for Perez or Redding? Umm...I think I'll pass. I'm not sure I'd give anyone for those players to be honest, I hardly see how they help our situation. Nats is another pitcher friendly park which keeps mediocre pitching numbers down to reasonable levels.

(a) the new nats park is *NOT* RFK. it's projected to be fairly even, maybe slightly skewed toward pitching, but that remains to be seen, since we're talking, what, 10 games so far? it's too early to make that judgement.

(b) i wouldn't propose a straight up "lillibridge for either redding or perez" deal. i know the bravos need bullpen help, too. it was more of a question as to whether the braves would consider redding or perez to be guys they could fill out their rotation with and who wouldn't cost them an arm and a leg.

fences are similar distance at the corners, but not much else. the gaps and straightaway center are all at least 10' closer. and the walls are mostly lower, too. the wind is going to be hard to gauge as buildings around the stadium change, but at least it *can* blow out, which it can't really in RFK.

i haven't seen anyone doing any real analysis who's said it would be anything more than neutral or slight pitching (all with the caveat that only time will tell). i haven't seen a single serious analysis say it projects as a pitchers' park. but, again, only time will tell.

and you're getting ahead of yourself (and me) again. i mentioned bullpen as another braves need. it doesn't have to be that specific. the question remains: would the braves be interested in either perez or redding at the right price? and what would be the right price (in addition to either) on the nats side to make it worth lillibridge?

i'm not proposing a specific trade, just some of the pieces a framework could be drawn around.

I said in my first post if it were up to me, I wouldn't give anything up for Redding or Perez.

Now if you are wanting to assume for a moment that I'd still look into it, it would have to take a good bit because Lillibridge is a good prospect and those players hold next to no value in my eyes. It would have to be multiple prospects probably since Lillibridge is a borderline top 100-150 prospect on some sites. Something like Balester or Lannan/Esmailyn Gonzalez for me to consider it. If you needed some arm to make up for giving 2 up fine, I could throw something in but it would take at leats 2 arms for me and maybe someting else depending on that 2nd arm.

Of course Gonzalez has a ton of potential but it replaces Lillibridge in our system. I don't see much else that makes sense, we don't need an OF so Maxwell wouldn't work and Burgess doesn't make sense (would have to be PTBNL anyhow). Willems maybe but that is 3 arms now. I wouldn't do that if I were the Nats not to mention the Braves have a lot of young arms as well with Locke, Hanson, Teheran, Rohrbough, Evarts, Cordier, etc. I just don't think we are good trade partners especially since we are in the same division.

not trying to sound like a jerk, but i'm curious. why do you think the nats new stadium is going to play as a pitchers' park?

btw, the analysis i was talking about was based on the dimensions, orientation, and wind analysis and all was done before the stadium was built. there were a few articles in DC area papers.

if the braves want lannan or balester/+ for him, then i hope the nats move on.

the nats don't have a problem trading inside the division (see church/schneider for milledge).

Lillibridge is definitely blocked in Atlanta, unless they see him as a potential replacement in CF next season, since Kotsay is most likely nothing more than a 1 year rental in CF this season. Braves probably see Schafer as their opening day CF in '09. Braves need another quality SP asap. I would not consider Hampton, Chuck James, Jeff Bennett, Jo Jo Reyes as quality SP this season. There's a reason both Jo Jo & James are in AAA Richmond. In order for Atlanta to compete with both Mets & Philly, and actually have a chance to reach the playoffs, they can't wait until the trade deadline. Maybe Wren will do something soon. This could be it for the Braves if you consider Smoltz, Glavine, Hampton, Tex, will most likely not be in a Braves uniform next season. Tex will be wearing NY pinstripes, & the others will be retired. Chipper gonna be a year older too & who knows how much longer he'll be around.

I don't know if he will be available within the next few months, but does anyone think the Royals will be shopping Greinke this season? And call me crazy, but it would not surprise me if one of the Pirates young pitchers are available come July.

Another good spot that the Braves will look to is the Rays. With a crowded rotation and Kaz coming off of the DL the Rays need to make a move. Jackson and Howell are both doing well and are out of options. Neither would warrant a top tier prospect and would be able to eat 6-7 innings often.

"If the Braves don't pick up another arm within the month and the Padres keep struggling through May, how about Maddux for Gorkys Hernandez?"

I actually like this idea. The Braves get another solid innings eater and bring back a legend to play out the string on his main team. The Pads get a very good long term center fielder for Maddux, but I'm not quite sure they'd target Hernandez. Cedric Hunter is already their planned long term guy in center, and although Hernandez is the better prospect, I would expect them to fill other needs. Towers doesn't seem to happy with Khalil Greene, so maybe something like Lillibridge and Brandon Jones for Maddux and Tony Clark. Then the Braves would get a quality power bat for their bench as well.

"I don't know if he will be available within the next few months, but does anyone think the Royals will be shopping Greinke this season? And call me crazy, but it would not surprise me if one of the Pirates young pitchers are available come July."

There is no way that Zack Grienke would be avaliable this year. Or any time soon. He's only 24, and he's showing real signs of fufilling his ace potential. He's sporting a 3-1 record, 1.47 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, .215 BAA, with 28 K and 10 BB in 43 innings and 6 starts. Those are some awesome numbers for a 24 year old on a crappy team. With him, Bannister, Meche, and Hochevar, as well as stud Daniel Cortes and a likely pick of Aaron Crow or Brett Matsuz in the June Draft, the Royals are starting to gather up some quality young pitching. With Butler, Gordon, Teahen, and soon Mike Moustakas in the lineup, this team is getting better and better. Grienke's part of their potentially bright future, he's not leaving.

And I'm just not quite sure who you have in mind that the Pirates would move. They may be struggling, but they just signed Snell long term, Paul Maholm appears to be breaking out, and although Gorzelanny and Duke have struggled so far, they are both still potentially good pitchers. Gorzelanny has legit #2 potential and could reach it sooner rather than later. Considering that they just let Matt Morris go, and Brad Lincoln isn't quite ready for the majors yet, I don't see why they would move any of their young pitchers unless they got other young pitchers back who they thought were better.

Also, as much as I love maddux, the sentimental value of him ending his career in atlanta with smoltz and glavine does not increase his value to the braves. He still is a 42 year old 5-7 innning guy, who has a tendency to get rocked at times, so he just is not worth gorkys hernandez.

Oh wait. Vargas is with the Mets in New Orleans. Oh well.

Do the Cardinals really think they're in the hunt for the long haul?

If not, they've got some pitching they could move (Looper/Lohse) that are FA's, and some other bit pieces that might appeal to the Braves (Anthony Reyes, Chris Duncan). Duncan could be insurance in case Tex moves on, and the others can help the shaky starting pitching. Naturally, they'd want Lillibridge, and could put together a package that might make sense. Perhaps Lohse, Reyes and a minor leaguer (1B Hamilton?) for Lillibridge and Cory Rasmus (reuniting the Rasmus brothers).

"The guy was busted for HGH, bringing into question his actual skill level."

I'm not 100% positive but I've read it in multiple places, including ESPN on mulitple occasions, but I believe that HGH does not have any effect on an athletes performance. I'm not quite sure how that plays into Schafer, but I think that there is a good possibility that missing 50 games is going to hurt Schafer more than the whole HGH thing.