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Elias Sports Bureau Rankings: Cracking The Code
Eddie Bajek, who runs the blog Detroit Tigers Thoughts, has come tantalizingly close to cracking the code behind the Elias Sports Bureau ranking system. Every year, Elias puts every player into one of five groups and ranks them based on various stats. Players are classified as Type A, Type B, or nothing, and this determines free agent compensation.
Eddie has been working to reverse-engineer the formula based on the information we have. His last hurdle is the adjustment for time spent on the disabled list. Apparently stats can be restored for up to 60 days of missed playing time, according to Keith Law.
If you are able to provide info on the DL adjustment, please email me or Eddie. A dream of mine: real-time Elias rankings available for all. I wonder if a player ever lost Type A status on the last day of the season?
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I'd love to know what Burnett would have to do in the second half to get to TypeA status. Seems to be on his way though. Was short innings last year though.
Posted by: juiced | July 24, 2008 at 09:57 AM
juiced, here's my opinion on that that i posted elsewhere -
I think he has already attained that status, now it's a matter of not losing it over the second half. If you look at his spot on the rankings heading into 2008, there were only a few guys between Burnett and the bottom A guy, and they are all pitching worse than AJ. People get scared off by that high ERA, but that's only one of the 5 areas Elias looks at. Burnett's new ranking will factor in 2008 and erase 2006, and he already has thrown as many IP, has more K, the same amount of Ws, and a similar W-L% to 2006. A full season like he's having so far and AJ is a near certainty for type A status.
Posted by: 92-93 | July 24, 2008 at 10:32 AM
I do not think he is that close. He pitched 160innings last year, and had 10 wins. However, factoring his last few starts and the fact they made it so he made 3 starts in about a week, he should be on his way there. I'm too lazy to predict how many more starts he'll have. His K totals also help. Too bad he couldn't get the win yesterday.
Posted by: juiced | July 24, 2008 at 11:04 AM
I assume he can still get the win if they can hold them?
Posted by: juiced | July 24, 2008 at 11:06 AM
That would be awesome to have a real-time Elias rankings tracker.
I would assume that most teams already have some sort of system for estimating the rankings; however, it's possible that many don't, which seems silly. I'm sure the saber teams already have Elias estimations.
Posted by: John Peterson | July 24, 2008 at 02:05 PM
Okay, if anybody wants to practice and try to figure them out, I would suggest trying last year's Designated Hitter Pool. There are only 15 players and five categories, so there is less to deal with. Here are their scores:
David Ortiz 100.000 (85/85)
Jim Thome 87.059 (74/85)
Travis Hafner 83.529 (71)
Frank Thomas 81.176 (69)
Jose Vidro 68.235 (58)
Jason Giambi 67.059 (57)
Gary Sheffield 65.882 (56)
Matt Stairs 52.941 (45)
Greg Norton 52.941 (45)
Johnny Gomes 45.882 (39)
Mike Sweeney 43.529 (37)
Billy Butler 40.000 (34)
Sammy Sosa 32.941 (28)
Rondell White 22.353 (19)
Shelley Duncan 21.176 (18)
Jason Botts 18.824 (16)
J.J. Furmaniak 10.588 (9)
Garret Jones 5.882 (5)
Remember, the stats are PA, BA, OBP, HR, RBI.
Posted by: ebajek85 | July 24, 2008 at 11:10 PM
Check that, 18 hitters. Here is their unofficial DL Data:
Ortiz 0 Games
Thome 19 Games
Hafner 0
Thomas 13
Vidro 32
Giambi 62
Sheffield 143
Stairs 0
Norton 40
Gomes 37
Sweeney 152
Butler 0
Sosa 0
White 142
Duncan 0
Botts 0
Furmaniak 0
Jones 0
Posted by: ebajek85 | July 24, 2008 at 11:13 PM