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Sherman's Latest: Adenhart, Burnett, Niese, Ibanez

Joel Sherman of the New York Post has been digging up rumors left and right - here, here, and here in recent days.  Let's discuss.

  • The Angels have "hinted at a willingness to build a deal around pitching prospect Nick Adenhart."  This would apparently involve Mark Teixeira or Matt Holliday.
  • The Phillies made an initial offer last week for A.J. Burnett, and the Jays were thoroughly unimpressed.  The Phillies won't discuss prospects Carlos Carrasco, Lou Marson, or Greg Golson in trades.
  • The Yankees have zero interest in Burnett.
  • The A's are willing to move Joe Blanton.  He's not perfect, but he can eat innings and is under team control through 2010.
  • Six games out of the wild card with a league-best offense, the Rangers don't look like sellers.
  • At least ten teams watched Mets' Double A starter Jon Niese pitch Saturday.  He's their top trade chip given the unavailability of Fernando Martinez.
  • The Pirates have their eye on the Yankees' Ross Ohlendorf, if the Yanks become buyers for players like Damaso Marte or Xavier Nady.
  • Three Raul Ibanez suitors are named: the Diamondbacks, Dodgers, and Red Sox.
  • At least nine teams are monitoring Freddy Garcia: the Yankees, Mets, Astros, Rangers, Royals, Red Sox, Phillies, Tigers, and White Sox.  We've seen the Braves, Rays, and Cubs mentioned too.  Garcia's agent isn't up for an '09 option with his client.  A-Rod is said to be pushing for the Yankees to sign him. 
  • Sherman notes a rumor around the game that has Pat Gillick becoming Mariners president next year, and Brian Cashman coming on as his GM.


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I would guess that they move Adenhart and GMJ's contract to get Holliday. That actually makes some sense, though I would think a lefty bat would make more sense, given that most of the Angels' power is from the right side (Vlad, Hunter, Rivera, Kendrick). Tex makes less sense because Kotchman is almost as good offensively, better defensively and under team control for some time. He is also 4 years younger.

The Phillies can't really be thinking of Freddie Garcia, can they? This town despises him after last year's disaster.

Seeing how Fred Wilpon raved to anyone he could find about Jon Niese this spring training, I'd say that about the only way the Mets would let Niese go would be for a (second) #1 starter. Or someone along the lines of a superstud OF guy. Neither one is likely (notice that I did not say "definitely") going to happen.

Niese probably won't go anywhere. They need a corner OF bat and it's not worth giving up their best pitching prospect given the options available.

I'm surprised the Mets aren't mentioned with Ibanez.

Assuming that a team ACTUALLY wants Blanton, what could Oakland get in return?

There is no way that Oakland gets anything decent. Maybe a B level prospect.

"He's not perfect, but he can eat innings"

And anything not nailed down

I am so glad the Dodgers didn't give into Beane's demands for Blanton last year. There is just nothing special about that guy. He's not left handed, he's not that young (27), he gives up a high BAA, has a subpar ERA... The only thing he has going for him is that he doesn't get hurt. Big deal. Brett Tomko doesn't get hurt either, and he sucks.

Kotchman is a very good ballplayer, but he doesn't have the power that the Angels are desperate for like Texiera...I think the Mets are holding off on Ibanez b/c Church and Pagan are due back in the next couple of weeks...As for the Yanks, I would deal Ohlendorf for Marte straight up since Ohlie hasn't developed a pitch besides a fastball (that's not to say he won't get better) and the Yanks need a lefty NOW. I also wouldn't mind Blanton. He's pitched better than his record and he eats innings like they're cheeseburgers.

"Kotchman is a very good ballplayer, but he doesn't have the power that the Angels are desperate for like Texiera."

Kotchman has excellent gap power and K's a hell of a lot less than league average, let alone a guy like Tex. That means he is able to get guys over more often yet he doesn't GIDP any more than Tex does. Further, his power numbers stand to develop over time and have progressed over the years. He proved he could hit them in bunches earlier in the season and there really isn't a reason he can't put more swings like that together.

All that, and he is much, much cheaper than Tex.

As for the power thing, do you really think Tex will be all that much better an option than what the Angels already have? Lets use Vlad for example. I don't think you are going to tell me that Tex is a bigger power threat than Vlad, and if you do I will laugh for hours. Vlad's power numbers are depressed by his playing in Angel Stadium, which is the same thing that will happen to Tex. With Tex, you see his career SLG drop from .533 to .465 at Angel Stadium. That is only 23 points higher than that of Kotchman.

Then Angels have plenty of power, they just need to see it utilized.

Come on... How hard is it to go to baseball-reference.com and find out what you're talking about before you start talking.

Statistically speaking, Ks have nearly no impact. Kotchman may strike out less, but his career OBP is .337. Tex's is .371. Kotchman has never hit more than 11 Hrs in a season and his SLG is only .419. Tex's career SLG is .533 and can claim 4 straight seasons of at least 30 HRs. The highest SLG of Kotchman's career is .484, but the lowest of Tex's is .480. The argument that Tex's SLG will drop at Angel stadium doesn't hold up. In fact, both Kotchman and Vlad have better SLG at home than away. Adjusted OPS shows a .756 mark for Kotchman and a .904 mark for Tex.

It isn't a question of whether Tex will be a better source of power than Vlad, because Vlad is staying on the team. (Though, if you would like me to, I could make that argument) The question is whether Tex will be a better option than Kotchman. The answer is yes. Higher BA, OBP, SLG, OPS+, and he's a switch hitter. The defense is negligible with a .997 fielding % for Casey and a .996 for Tex. The Angels rank 23rd in runs scored. Their power hasn't been "utilized" all season, and there isn't a reason to think that it will start in the second half.

guys on the tex/kotchman debate i have to say kotch is no tex. i know there is a ballpark difference but i do the eye test. ive seen both players a number of times and tex looks like he was born to be a baseball player. hes a gamer. they just arent in the same league. i also think tex and holliday are extremely similar players.

and for the phils, if they arent giving up those prospects then who do they plan on acquiring randy wolf? if they dont plan on trading there top three guys what do they have of value?

How bout the followin trade:

Braves get:
Casey Kotchman 1B
Nick Adenhart SP


Angels Get:
Mark Texeira 1B
Will Ohman RP
Josh Anderson/Brandon Jones OF

Tex is better than Kotchman. No question about it. That said, is he worth $18-20m/year for the next few years while Kotch is earning $5-8m?

Kotchman's upside is nowhere close to Tex. The most optimistic reports would project a 320 hitter with 25 HR capability. That's nice but is far short of what Tex can do.

All that said, Kotchman isn't the Angels problem. They need better production from LF and SS. Everyone else is underperforming but not in a big way. Minor improvements by Hunter, Vlad, Figgins and Napoli will go a long way to improve this offense.
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Angels have to figure out what to do about Brandon Wood. He's still just 23 but isn't showing the type of improvement we have all hoped for. He is utterly lost in the bigs and strikes out way too often in AAA (about 1 out 4 AB's).

He could be the big trade chip to land a slugger. I'd rather move him than Adenhart. And I certainly wouldn't move Adenhart for 2 months of Tex.
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I Hate Typepad!!!

First off, AA, quit being an idiot. Batting average only tells part of the story, and a very small part at that. Texiera is the better run producer, better clutch hitter, and yes, he is a better defender. Please stop trying the sell the LA first basemen as Tex's equals, because they are no where near it. To get the package of an elite run producer and gold glove defensemen, both statuses Tex has maintained from sometime now, is something rare to have, and something Loney or kotchman are no where near yet. Get off you Tex hate parade and get back to reality.

I would love for the braves to trade off Tex and Ohman and one other prospect for the possibility of getting Adenhart, Kotchman, and brandon wood. Kotchman and Adenhart would be the prizes, and wood could probably use a change of scenery. The angels feel their areas of need for a title run, while the braves get players who can transistion to the future better. The Angels have great pitching, but with their current lineup, they could easily go on a 3 or 4 game drought without any offense. Adding Tex to the mix for them provides so much needed protection and production. As for the braves, the angels are stock full of young talent, it would seem they have the pieces the braves want in return. Hopefully a deal will be reached.

Havent we learned by now that the Angels aren't going to trade any of their prospects ever?

yankees should deal olendorf,melky and a prospect for marte and nady,maybe kennedy,melky,olendorf for the two,move gardner to center.trade damon,matsui,,nady in left,gardner in center,release hawkins,marte takes his roster spot.trade for an ace now,a young one,peavey,weeks,give tabata,kennedy,mcutchen/horne/????? . weeks,wang,joba,pettitte,hughes.you need three great pitchers to compete and a good 4th,a decent 5th and the yankees lack an ace.with a 209 million payroll this should not have happened.great pitching first,everything else has to wait.imagine sabathia,wang,joba in 2009,they will compete every game.they need a center fielder and a first baseman with better production,gardner or melky should be a 4th outfielder untill they can produce not putting them in hoping they do.the yankees are to old,slow and to many overpaid players.abraeu would be great at 10 million not 16,pettitte at 16 million,give me a break,11 or 12 is more like it.

Holliday 3-year road split:

.281/.343/.466, 30 HR, 126 RBI in 854 ABs

Now I know NL West road parks are all pitchers parks outside of COL, but still. That has to be concerning.

If I was running LAA I would not give up Adenhart for him.

Tex would seem to be a better fit, he's a better neutral hitter (.288/.385/.530, 50-171 on road in 891 ABs last 3 years), and a notorious second half hitter

I can see why LAA fans what Kotchman, he's young, cheap, and controllable, and solid...but Tex is a significant upgrade, objectively

I would think that a Kotchman for Tex deal straight up is good for both sides.

The Braves are getting someone who can help now - help them to be competitive in 2009. He's cheap and controllable.

The Angels hold on to Adenhart and Wood. Plant Tex in the middle of their lineup for 2 months and take their chances in the playoffs.

As I mentioned before Tex is better than Kotchman. The difference is that we get 2 months of Tex vs ATL getting 2+ years of Kotchman.

Angels can then make a run at resigning him (if his price comes down) or let him walk and collect picks. From the Braves side Kotchman is certainly more valuable today than a compensatory pick + a possible late 1st rounder.

Maybe I'm wrong, but it seems to me that the Braves would want more than just an even swap. Especially considering what they gave up for him. I think they'd need at least some high-ceiling, raw A ball type guys as throw ins from that stacked Angels system

"Statistically speaking, Ks have nearly no impact. Kotchman may strike out less, but his career OBP is .337. Tex's is .371."

Tex is much older at this point, and the fact that Kotchman is less likely to K means he is more likely to move runners over, which fits in better with the Angels system. Further, in Kotchman's only full MLB season, last year, his OBP was .372. The career stats you pulled out included the year where he missed most of the season with mono and 2 partial seasons, both of which saw him hoping back and forth between the minors and majors at 21 and 22. Have you seen his career minor league OBP? Its .401, and heavily driven by a high BA, which means he will drive in more runs.

"If I was running LAA I would not give up Adenhart for him."

I would. Adenhart is losing value quickly, as his command is incredibly suspect. He got absolutely hammered by MLB hitters and hasn't fared much better at AAA. Further, such a deal would probably mean a GMJ salary dump. As much as I like his defense and timely hitting, I just don't see him ever realizing his potential as a hitter.

While I think Holliday's numbers would drop at Angel Stadium, I do think he would benefit from having Vlad in the lineup protecting him.

"First off, AA, quit being an idiot."

You should probably not act like a child, as it leads people to take you far less seriously.

"he is a better defender."

LMAO. Ok, whatever. Tex is a very good defensive player, but he is handicapped by being right-handed and does not move like Kotchman (or Loney for that matter) arond the bag.

You also seem to forget that Tex is significantly older and more expensive than either Loney or Kotchman. Do you realize that Loney, who projects as the best pure hitter of any of the three, wont be in arbitration until at least 2010, if not 2011 if he doesn't qualify as a Super 2? Do you realize just how close Loney's numbers are to Teixeira's, despite his age and relative MLB inexperience? You are trying to compare guys with incomplete samples with a guy who has been around for nearly 6 years now.

"Kotchman's upside is nowhere close to Tex. The most optimistic reports would project a 320 hitter with 25 HR capability. "

Actually, his upside is better than that of Tex in several ways. Better hitter for average, fewer K's, better defense, cheaper both short and long term, etc. Further, to the Angels specifically, he has even more value in that his father is one of their top scouts, which means a lot. A lot of people forget that there is a business side to this game as well. I don't think Kotchman will ever be a 40 HR guy, but he will provide a major contribution to the team without being as much of a financial burden. With such good young starting pitching and other areas in which the team must spend, throwing $20 million a year at Tex isn't going to make a complete team, but it will hinder the Angels' ability to sign other free agents and pay home grown talent.

"and he's a switch hitter."

Doesn't particularly matter in this case. Kotchman hits lefties better than righties, and has done so consistently. In fact, here are his numbers this year.

.342 .392 .534

Those actually dwarf Tex's numbers:

.246 .373 .415

"They need better production from LF and SS."

For SS, you really should look at Maicer's numbers for the last 2 weeks. Then look at Aybar's last month. Since coming back from his injury, Aybar is putting up All Star numbers and Izturis' early struggles were well documented as the result of a whole lot of well hit balls being caught. Add to that, both are superior defensive players and Izturis plays all three of 2B, SS and 3B.

I'm sorry AA. I love the Angels I just don't see their situation in the same light as you. Here are my takes:

-- Kotchman might take less salary because of his dad. But that's far from certain. He's not going to leave $3-5m on the table because he likes the Angels. There are plenty of teams that draft players related to people in the organization. It sounds nice but I don't think you can point to very many examples where the player took a significant discount just so he and dad could both work for the same club.

-- Adenhart is still very young. The guy is 21 and has already pitched in the bigs. Give him time and his control will come. If he was 24 and having these same issues then I would be worried.

-- As for Kotchman's potential ... I totally agree that if he hits 320 w/ 25 HR's that's nothing short of solid. The difference is that Tex has actually reached his potential. It isn't theoretical. With Kotchman he still has a long ways to go in order to prove that the scouting projections are right. I also worry about Kotch's injury past. Seems like it was one thing after another. Knock on wood he has been solid this year. I still have nightmares from the mono days ...

-- I'm not totally opposed to Holliday assuming the price is right. Adenhart and GMJ would be a great deal. I just don't think there is a chance in heck that Colorado would do that. GMJ carries negative value at this point. It would need to be Adenhart + more valuable prospects + GMJ. It would be awesome if you could do a Holliday + Atkins and include Wood, Adenhart, GMJ, Willits + others.

-- For another poster ... I still think that Kotchman for Tex is a pretty solid trade straight up. The Angels may need to throw something minor in but that should be close. You really can't compare what Atlanta paid because they landed him for 1.5 years. For the Angels this is just a 2 month rental.

One more note for AA.

If the Angels can get a bopper (Tex, Holliday, Atkins, etc) Aybar will be fine. I think he will be a solid fielding, 300 hitter with 20-30 SB potential. Nothing wrong with that. However, we need to get power from somewhere. We also need to keep Figgins playing somewhere. Kendrick is locked in. So is Hunter and Vlad. That doesn't leave a lot of spots to upgrade.

"Kotchman might take less salary because of his dad."

"If the Angels can get a bopper (Tex, Holliday, Atkins, etc) Aybar will be fine. I think he will be a solid fielding, 300 hitter with 20-30 SB potential. Nothing wrong with that. However, we need to get power from somewhere."

Aybar himself have excellent power potential. His minor league power numbers dwarf those of Rafael Furcal, who is exactly the player he best compares to when it comes to tools. Since he has stopped trying to bunt all the time, his numbers have climbed in every possible way. Further, Kendrick's HR numbers are bound to climb, and he is already a doubles machine. You don't really think he is only going to hit 5-10 HR a year, do you? With that bat speed and physique?

"Adenhart is still very young. The guy is 21 and has already pitched in the bigs. Give him time and his control will come. If he was 24 and having these same issues then I would be worried."

Compare Adenhart to Kershaw, who has had much less seasoning in the minors. Kershaw, despite having pitch count problems, had no where near the command issues Adenhart had in his MLB call up. Further, Adenhart has been having these issues in AAA, where he should probably just be blowing people away with pitches down the middle.

"Kotchman might take less salary because of his dad."

That's not the issue. Kotchman would make less money even without his dad in the equation. He will probably cost $50-70 million less over his career than Tex will, but will provide nearly the production.

Would the Dodgers be willing to trade Kemp, Loney, and Broxton for Teixeira, Ohman, and a prospect or two? The Braves would be foolish to give up more.

"Would the Dodgers be willing to trade Kemp, Loney, and Broxton for Teixeira, Ohman, and a prospect or two? The Braves would be foolish to give up more."

And the Dodgers would be downright stupid to give up that more. 3 guys you control for cheap for a potential rental/very expensive resigning, an inferior reliever and a couple prospects they don't need?

Have you ever taken a look at how close Loney's career numbers are to those of Tex? Not to mention that he is 4 years younger. Then you want to throw in Kemp, who is probably going to end up with 20HR/35SB/90RBI? Kemp, who is only 23, has excelled defensively and who is still developing and is potentially a 30/30 or even 40/40 guy? And then you want Broxton, who the Dodgers have already said, in no uncertain terms, is only slightly less untouchable than Russell Martin? With Saito's elbow now suspect?

A NOTE TO TIM, you are a hypocrite... You leave people calling other people idiots on your site, which means the same thing as calling someone an ass, this isn't church and everyone who puts "****" instead of the word... They make sure you know what it means, like F*ck You!! Guess what the missing letter is!! Yeah, if you don't know that you are brain dead, but you leave those posts up, comical!

In your attempt to cleanup your site, I've noticed (arguments with them or not) you've alienated the real fans, instead of these Sunday game watchers who know nothing... For a site that's supposed to be cutting edge for information and have informed discussions, you've sold out, not in a Platinum selling Load/Reload Metallica way, but more like a Garth Brooks/Vanilla Ice changing genres so that they can try something "new and exciting" type of way...

What this site was good at was being a little low brow comment wise, but no different than the conversations that would go on at your local bar between fans from competing teams... Now you've tried to take the pub to Rodeo (pronounced Row-Day-O, in case you were wondering it wasn't a southern reference) Drive and it just doesn't fit... Kind of sad really...

I'd take a slang/krass/crude verbal tirade over this "well, John, I respectfully disagree with that form of thinking as it's highly illogical that such would occur... A more sound way of thinking might lead to a resolution that is more likely considered fair by the two parties involved." Sorry, but nobody wants to read what equates to 20 pages per topic of that preacher crap, they come on here half the time to see the sh*t (happy??) talking that goes on because it's entertaining...

I hate AriGoldisaG, yet still I get a kick out of reading his attempts at insulting others... Just because a couple people come crying to you, doesn't mean you did the right thing by doing something about it... In most cases the kid that started it got popped in the beak on a counter punch and then goes and cries to the authority figure, but you are rewarding this start a fight then cry when you get hurt mentality...

By the way, you let his (Ari) little ass say whatever he wants as long as he uses "****". It's really funny because anyone that has half a brain should be offended that you would draw the line where you have, as if to say your viewer base is too stupid to know the difference between how I say it and how Ari says it...

You've definitely pulled a Microsoft with your website, not only did you make poor "upgrades", but now you are forcing it down the throats of your consumers with no regard for what the reaction might be to this... I mean you had the XP of baseball blogging sites and decided that in all your egotism, you needed to create a baseball mecca and the end result was Vista...

The problem is that instead of converting to Vista, you won't gain the long standing followers because those are true fans, not the ones on here today and yet you are alienating the other ones as they are looking for other chatting communities... It's like opening the door to another operating system, nobody wants to relearn how to operate their computer, but given the options, they'll go away from MS products, since both require the same amount of effort and they now have a reason to not like MS products with the crap they pulled on taking away XP and it's support system...

Now you are doing the same thing with this site, the only motification you needed to make was getting rid of type key and instead you changed everything else, but yet there's still type key on your site!! It's like having a flat tire and getting your oil changed with your last 40 bucks, yet you're still riding on your rim!

I bet you were the outcast in school, like the water boy/scorekeeper/coach's special assistant when you were in high school and this site is your life because it's your first chance to feel cool... News flash people are on her for the baseball, not because of you, take away baseball and you aren't anything but another talking head... You put up a person about Tim section, which I thought was priceless, talk about self centered, like anyone gives a crap about where you've been or what you do!

As long as my hamburger is done the right way, I don't care where the guy working the drive thru window has been, what he's done, how he lives, or what his goals are, I just want my sandwich and to go... Same with this site, you may be a legend in your own mind, but nobody else shares your thinking... Delete the post, it's the cowardly thing to do, hiding the bad... You should know best how to do that!

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