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By Tim Dierkes [August 1, 2008 at 9:48am CST]
Assigning contender status is subjective, but I'm going to say that the following teams are not in the playoff mix: the Orioles, Royals, Indians, Mariners, Braves, Nationals, Reds, Astros, Pirates, Giants, and Padres. The Blue Jays and Athletics just missed the cut as fringe wild card contenders. With those 11 non-contenders in mind, let's take a look at players not traded at the '08 non-waiver deadline.
- Orioles: Aubrey Huff, Ramon Hernandez, Brian Roberts, Jay Payton, Jamie Walker, Kevin Millar, Chad Bradford, George Sherrill. Millar and Payton are free agents after the season, but there probably wasn't much of a market for either. The rest are under team control through at least '09, so Andy MacPhail still has time to find the right deal; read his comments here. Hernandez is an August trade candidate.
- Royals: Jose Guillen, Mark Grudzielanek, Ron Mahay, David DeJesus, Miguel Olivo. Moving the Guillen contract would've made sense, but we don't know whether that was on the table. Kind of surprised to see Grudz still around. Mahay could be an offseason move, but the Royals might just want him for '09. DeJesus' name will probably come up at the Winter Meetings.
- Indians: Paul Byrd, David Dellucci, Jamey Carroll. Only Byrd was thought to generate a bit of interest. He could go in August.
- Mariners: Adrian Beltre, Jarrod Washburn, Raul Ibanez. The Ms still have time to move Beltre and Washburn if they feel so inclined. Ibanez is a possible Type A free agent, so the Mariners asked for a lot. Jayson Stark spoke to teams who characterized the Ms demands as "outrageous" in general. Geoff Baker gives his take on the Mariners' deadline day.
- Braves: Mark Kotsay, Will Ohman. Wouldn't be surprising to see Kotsay moved this month. Ohman we discussed here.
- Nationals: Austin Kearns, Dmitri Young, Cristian Guzman, Luis Ayala, Ron Belliard, Tim Redding, Odalis Perez. Some of these players have little trade value, while the Nationals prefer to keep others for '09.
- Reds: Adam Dunn, Bronson Arroyo, Jeremy Affeldt, David Weathers, David Ross, Josh Fogg, Paul Bako. It seems that the offers just weren't there for Dunn, who should net a pair of draft picks unless the Reds are gunshy about offering arbitration. I'm surprised Weathers and Fogg weren't moved.
- Astros: Miguel Tejada, Randy Wolf, Jose Valverde, Ty Wigginton, Mark Loretta, Doug Brocail, Geoff Geary. The 'Stros are acting like contenders. The worst outcome for fans would be if Wolf and LaTroy Hawkins add a few wins and worsen the team's '09 draft position.
- Pirates: Jack Wilson, John Grabow, Doug Mientkiewicz. The Pirates were quite active, and could still trade Wilson and Grabow this winter.
- Giants: Randy Winn, Dave Roberts, Bengie Molina, Rich Aurilia, Tyler Walker, Jack Taschner. Winn and Roberts are August trade candidates. The others might've made sense to trade.
- Padres: Greg Maddux, Brian Giles, Khalil Greene, Josh Bard. Maddux, with just one possible suitor, couldn't be moved. Keeping Giles and Bard around makes sense for '09, while trading Greene now would be selling low. The Padres did talk to seven different teams in the last few days.
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It doesn't seem to me that many of these players would clear waivers. Am I wrong?
Posted by: UConnHuskies | August 01, 2008 at 10:08 AM
More would clear waivers than you think. Remember, if a team claims a player off waivers they have to create a roster spot for him. Most of these vets don't have options and can't be stashed in the minors. Also, there's the issue of taking on contracts which teams are more and more reluctant to do.
Posted by: MickS | August 01, 2008 at 10:19 AM
You really sure Texas belongs on this list? They are four games ahead of the next best team on that list (Baltimore), two games ahead of Oakland (not on the list), three game over .500, and have three and four game home series' against the Blue Jays and Yankees, respectively, starting tonight.
That could explain why some of those guys weren't traded. Maybe more of these young pitchers will give that team a shot in the arm down the stretch. Who knows?
Posted by: skyharbor215 | August 01, 2008 at 10:43 AM
Very good job over the past week, Tim. You were right on top of everything.
Posted by: IowaCubs | August 01, 2008 at 10:56 AM
I was surprised that the Rangers didn't move Byrd to make room for Nellie Cruz. I know he's out of options and everything, but doesn't he deserve another shot with the video game numbers he's putting up?
Posted by: IowaCubs | August 01, 2008 at 10:58 AM
The Rangers?
They were 4 games out of the wild card when the trade deadline passed.
Last time I checked, a team only 5 games out IS IN the wild card race.
Posted by: coolbean04 | August 01, 2008 at 11:00 AM
"The Rangers?
They were 4 games out of the wild card when the trade deadline passed.
Last time I checked, a team only 5 games out IS IN the wild card race"
Not with that pitching.
Posted by: icedrake523 | August 01, 2008 at 11:04 AM
What you look for is a above_average-to-awful player who has a big contract. Those guys tend to clear waivers because to claim them means thatthe claiming team would have to pick up the entire contract. Cheap bargain players who are good just won't go through under normal circumstances. So in the case with the Orioles, I think Sherrill won't make it through. He would be a very good serviceable piece as a closer or setup man and is paid around the minimum. On the other hand, a player like Aubrey Huff who has 22 HRs but a big contract will breeze through.
Posted by: basemonkey | August 01, 2008 at 11:11 AM
I don't think the Rangers view themselves as a playoff contender. However, they do have a better record than both Toronto and Oakland for whom you've granted exceptions. Not to mention, Texas has more home games remaining than any other team in baseball, which coincidentally means they've done what they've done despite playing more road games than any other team. I'm not sure what factors go into awarding teams with playoff percentages, but ESPN also has Toronto and Oakland ahead of Texas. Just seems curious is all.
Posted by: Drago | August 01, 2008 at 11:37 AM
Checking out the Pythagenports may have answered my own question.
Posted by: Drago | August 01, 2008 at 12:05 PM
As far as the Rangers and Nelson Cruz go, I sincerely hope they leave him in Triple A the entire year. Why? If he is a September call-up and underperforms yet again, his tradability could take a drastic hit. Let him ride the year in Triple A, win player of the year, and use his monster stats to work a deal at the winter meetings.
Also, as a diehard Rangers fan, I think the Rangers should be deemed contenders, but not taken seriously. Why? Because the team ERA for the month of July hovered very close to 7. UNREAL that they went 13-12. I truly believe that Daniels believes he has a better shot at getting a good deal over the winter meetings rather than right now. I still think you could see Laird/Salty gone by next March.
I do think the Rangers should have unloaded Cat/Byrd for prospects, and even Bradley for good prospects, yet try to resign him this offseason. I think even if he was traded now, he would have liked to come back to Texas, as him and Wash are such good friends.
Posted by: tmoney352 | August 01, 2008 at 12:07 PM
Ummmm,
You have Oakland and Toronto as "fringe" contenders...But The Texas Rangers are ahead of both those teams AS WELL AS the Detroit Tigers in the AL Wild Card.
Posted by: LakotaEast22 | August 01, 2008 at 12:24 PM
You have to read the waiver rules on that other post because "trade waivers" are different than normal waivers. If you put a player on waivers then if a team claims him you can either let them have him trade them to that team or take the guy off waivers.
Posted by: BucSox | August 01, 2008 at 12:30 PM
I agree with those saying the Rangers don't belong here. That is my bad. I did not mean to include teams that were that close in the WC race, it was just an error.
I am going to update the post...don't think I am trying to deceive or something though.
Posted by: Tim Dierkes | August 01, 2008 at 12:44 PM
The only guy I'm pissed the Orioles didn't move is Sherrill. There's no chance he clears waivers and his value won't be as high over the winter (relievers are always worth more at the deadline). Sure, we've got him long-term, but a lot can happen in a year...look at Loewen! Sherrill could get hurt or he could prove less effective next year. Then we're left holding the bag. You're telling me that, with all the teams interested, Andy couldn't find a match ANYWHERE?! I can't help but wonder, for instance, if he might've packaged Sherrill and Roberts and sent them to St. Louis for Rasmus, Todd, Kozma, and a couple bums...just a for instance.
The more I read, the more I think that McPhail has deluded himself into thinking we're closer to contending than we really are and that he has somewhat unrealistic price tags affixed to his most desirable trade chips. Don't get me wrong, I'm VERY happy we didn't just give our better players away like Pittsburgh, but one discouraging report followed another over the past days detailing an unwillingness to even discuss certain players (like Roberts or Guthrie) and a lack of effort to find a creative solution to dealing Sherrill- like packaging him with Huff, for instance (eating a portion of Huff's contract). I read McPhail wanted 2-3 prospects for Sherrill... Without knowing the level of prospect we're talking about, I can't say that's unreasonable, but he did seem TOO focused on getting that SS prospect when an impact guy- SS or not- should've been the more general objective.
Most of the other parts we could deal will likely clear waivers or can be dealt at equal or greater value over the winter, but Sherrill cannot and it's McPhail's failure that he's still with the O's. Though he was talking about Roberts when he said it, I'm made to think of this quote in today's Baltimore Sun...
(paraphrasing) 'I'm not of the mind to give (other) teams false hope.'
How 'bout giving your own team some of the real stuff?!
Posted by: milehigh78 | August 01, 2008 at 12:56 PM
I also agree as a Rangers fan that the Rangers aren't likely to win a Wild Card, much less the World Series this season. Unless something incredible happens, the pitching doesn't match up to teams like the Angels and Red Sox.
However...the fact that the Rangers are competing this season with their makeshift pitching should make all the other teams take note. If the Rangers acquire 1-2 front line pitchers for their catchers like Laird and Salty and some of their farm talent and if we could get somebody like Sheets to front the rotation, well...think of the Rangers hitting with better pitching in support of it. Scary, huh? Our 1-9 guys match up with anybody else in baseball.
Posted by: MadmanTX | August 01, 2008 at 01:23 PM
agreed. i think the rangers will undoubtedly look to add a free agent high profile pitcher, though i don't think it will happen. and we've overpaid for pitching before, so i would just be cautious. also, i love sheets, but i think the rangers management would deem him a big risk because of his health. who knows though. either way, i'd love to see him in a rangers uni.
Posted by: tmoney352 | August 01, 2008 at 01:51 PM
I think the Orioles will be able to move Sherrill if they want to in the offseason. Closers are a different breed of trade option. That being said, I think the reason why MacPhail has not been able to move him is because the scouting reports on Sherrill don't spur other clubs to pony up normal closer prices. Sherrill has had very good success in the majors as setup man and closer. The book on him though is that he does it on guts, saavy, and makeup, not by stuff. That is fine to deal for bullpen depth but it's a slight roll of the dice to pay closer prices. Most GMs want to see a 95+ mph to settle their fears. That being said, if Sherrill collects 40 or more saves this season then I don't care what the reports are. He will be a tradable commodity even in the offseason.
Posted by: basemonkey | August 01, 2008 at 10:28 PM
I'm kind of surprised the Rangers didn't find a taker for Nelson Cruz at the deadline. Surely, someone could have used his bat.
Posted by: coryjwilson | August 02, 2008 at 04:08 AM
Very surprised Sherrill did not end up some place.
Aubrey Huff is not consistently this good season to season,plus the Orioles probably would have asked too much.I think a lot of people forget that he has had injuries, sucked, and been a bench player before this years fluke.
I knew Beltre wasn't moving!
So surprised that Mahay is not in one of my Red Sox's uniforms.
I don't know why but I figured Winn would be traded so a little puzzled there. I think the Giants could have got someone to overpay and its not like they are contenders.
I don't mean to pick at the post, but I noticed something weird. Randy Wolf was in fact traded from the Padres to the Astros. Wouldn't it be weird for him to be on a list of players not traded considering he was already traded. Also he is on the Astros list as if he was someone they considered trading, when in fact they actively traded for him. WOOOW
Posted by: manny24 | August 02, 2008 at 07:34 AM
I know the Astros are acting like they can win but will the Astros be willing to trade Carlos Lee if someone takes that massive contract off their hands.
Posted by: metsfan | August 02, 2008 at 07:49 AM