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What To Do With Brad Penny?
Dylan Hernandez of the L.A. Times raises the question today: what should the Dodgers do with Brad Penny? The 30 year-old righty has been lousy this year, and he's back on the DL with shoulder woes. In recent years he's shown a trend of fading in the second half, though he was respectable in '07.
The Dodgers face a $9.25MM club option with a $2MM buyout. Is Penny worthy of a one-year, $7.25MM deal? I probably wouldn't guarantee that money to him, but I'm not a doctor. Penny has had back, blister, rib cage, forearm, elbow, biceps nerve, and shoulder problems over the years. He was never worked particularly hard by his managers.
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Let him go. Commit to signing Sabathia.
Posted by: Mr_Punch | August 15, 2008 at 10:04 AM
Is he related to Carl Pavano?
Posted by: jjyankeesfan2 | August 15, 2008 at 10:29 AM
I would keep him unless they plan on getting Sabathia or Sheets. If they buy him out, I feel pretty confident a team will be willing to pay atleast that amount for his services. A short term deal for a pitcher like Penny can't hurt your team.
Posted by: UConnHuskies | August 15, 2008 at 10:32 AM
he is a stud when healthy...
Posted by: mr utley | August 15, 2008 at 10:36 AM
Buy him out then offer him a 1 year deal...if he thinks he can do better, more power to him...
Posted by: Beau | August 15, 2008 at 10:54 AM
He is not a stud. He was lucky in 2007 and his lowest FIP since 2001 has been 3.59.
A good pitcher, yes, but he's never been dominant and has been lucky in terms of HR given up.
He was reportedly throwing 98 in his rehab so the lack of strikeouts is puzzling.
I say make him a reliever.
Posted by: bobo | August 15, 2008 at 10:55 AM
"Is he related to Carl Pavano?"
Yes, they're cousins.
Posted by: The Big Cat | August 15, 2008 at 11:01 AM
$7m for a team with a larger payroll isn't much of a gamble. If the Dodgers don't want him at $7m then I'm sure he will have a line of suitors willing to pay that price.
Posted by: bjsguess | August 15, 2008 at 11:13 AM
Pick up the option and trade him - someone will want him.
Posted by: touchmymonkey | August 15, 2008 at 11:38 AM
James McDonald is better than Penny right now so why resign him? Give McDonald a shot at the rotation and save money to use elsewhere.
Posted by: goose102977 | August 15, 2008 at 12:36 PM
Penny has been LgAvg or worse in 6 of his 9 seasons, and only truly impressive in 2 (2004 and 2007). The problem is that even when he was impressive in the ERA/ERA+ category, his perpetuals weren’t that great and there were indications of problems. His track record with injuries coupled with a questionable attitude and work-ethic makes him an all around risk to take in hopes of receiving one of those few-and-far-between rather lucky seasons… Also complicating things more is the fact that Lowe will also be a FA.
…That said, 9.5-ish isnt that horrible of a move on a 1 year deal, and if he looks like he is actually healthy then I imagine they pick it up if they don’t resign Lowe. If they do manage to work out an extension with Derek though, then I say let Penny walk and spend the money elseware ~ Lowe is reliable, Penny is a crapshoot. They will also already need to resign Blake for 3rd and get someone for 2nd and Short on top of the need to solidify the rotation with someone reliable, add to the pen and create some form of depth ~ while ownership is saying the team is already spending too much cash on the club. The team really has to find a way to stop signing horrible contracts that do nothing but waste money ~ if Penny doesn’t look 100% healthy then let him walk as he will stand a good chance of being another of those complete wastes…
Posted by: darkstar1661 | August 15, 2008 at 12:52 PM
The reality is that Penny's market value, right or wrong, is higher than $7.25 million (remember, they are forced to pay him that $2 million anyway) at this point in history. The only reason to not pick up the option is if Penny has a torn labrum or something like that.
"Let him go. Commit to signing Sabathia."
Signing Sabathia will have little, if anything, to do with resigning Penny.
"A good pitcher, yes, but he's never been dominant and has been lucky in terms of HR given up."
"He was reportedly throwing 98 in his rehab so the lack of strikeouts is puzzling."
Paid attention to Penny's history? Always been a hard thrower, never been a big K guy, rather relying on ground balls and only going for the K when in trouble. It is the reason he has kept the ball in the park with some success. Just because you don't K a ton of people every night doesn't make you "lucky" when successful.
Posted by: AA | August 15, 2008 at 06:02 PM
Penny was lucky last year because his HR/9 rate dropped from his normal .09-1.0 over the last 4-5 years all the way down to .04 in 2007 ~ which is the difference from his League-Average to Absolute-Elite at keeping the ball in the park. Ie, it’s a fluke.
Also, his BB rate also went to trash in 2007 (relative to where it normally is for him), yet amazingly those runners didn’t come around to score. He’s generally a 70% stranded-runners type guy ~ last year it was an abnormal 77% (again, the difference between about LgAvg to elite in the game). I see another fluke…
Without those two abnormalities in his 2007 season, his overall numbers would have most likely been the LgAvg-ish they normally are… Hence, he was Lucky…
Posted by: darkstar1661 | August 15, 2008 at 07:12 PM