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A.J. Burnett's agent is in Toronto, and Jeff Blair of the Globe and Mail hints that preliminary extension talks may have begun. Blair says it'll take at least $15MM a year to sign Burnett, which the Jays will attempt to do before he opts out and hits the open market.
I imagine Burnett requires four years, with five within the realm of possibility. It will undoubtedly be a risky contract, though J.P. Ricciardi gambled on Burnett's stuff back in '05 and it worked out pretty well. Pretty much all free agent contracts for top pitchers are risky.
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As an Orioles fan, I've mixed thoughts about Burnett. There's been some suggestion he might favor signing with the Orioles, since he lives in the Baltimore suburb of Monkton.
While, in general, I agree with the notion that the Orioles ought not be spending on free agents just yet, this could be an exception in that the Orioles need for pitching is overwhelming. Many have suggested lesser pitchers, and I see the point in that, but not necesarrily in signing lesser Type A's.
So, I don't know. It's hard to imagine Burnett not testing the market at this point, unless he loves Toronto.
Posted by: Playwright | September 24, 2008 at 09:38 AM
I still dont get how he gets more per year than Lowe, his performance is worse and is more injury prone. People are still paying for his 'stuff' not realizing hes not 25 nor 28 anymore
Posted by: viktor06 | September 24, 2008 at 11:50 AM
As a Jays fan, I'd love to have Lowe, and I've been saying it for months, when his ERA was much higher.
He's a great GB pitcher who would do excellent with the Jays defense behind him.
Posted by: juiced | September 24, 2008 at 01:18 PM
Couldn't agree more with Victor06. Stop looking at potential and look at actual performance.
Lowe (age 35)
2005 - 3.61 ERA / 222 IP
2006 - 3.63 ERA / 218 IP
2007 - 3.88 ERA / 199 IP
2008 - 3.29 ERA / 208+ IP
Burnett (Age 31)
2005 - 3.45 ERA / 209 IP
2006 - 3.98 ERA / 135 IP
2007 - 3.75 ERA / 165 IP
2008 - 4.18 ERA / 213+ IP
Lowe has averaged 15% more innings while providing approximately a 15% better weighted average ERA.
Some of the differences can be attributed to park factors (although Rogers Centre is pretty stingy). Additionally, Lowe is 4 years older.
All that said, if Burnett gets $15m it is a hard argument to make that Lowe doesn't deserve at least $17m. Personally, that's too much for either pitcher IMO. Someone is going to get a good deal with Lowe while someone else will over pay for Burnett.
Posted by: bjsguess | September 24, 2008 at 02:46 PM
Lowe has been doing it in a leauge with pretty bad hitting. Except the rockies
Burnett has been doing it in the best division in baseball. When I saw him pitch he was good, than again every time he pitched against the Yanks he won.
Posted by: yankfan1 | September 24, 2008 at 03:51 PM
Lowe has pitched in the West against teams like the Diamondbacks, Padres, and Giants while Burnett has pitched against teams like the Sox, Rays, and Yankees
Posted by: defense | September 24, 2008 at 03:51 PM
in Burnett's defence- he plays in a tough al east, and I wanna say he leads the american league in strikeouts,(not 100% sure) and derek lowe plays in a weaker nl west and pitches more often in parks that are pitcher friendly- his coor's field stats are terrible- but who's arent.... I'd take Burnett
Posted by: prov1x41 | September 24, 2008 at 06:05 PM
Hope they don't forget that the first priority should be extending Halladay. I'd love both, but keep the Doc.
Posted by: pehlke | September 25, 2008 at 08:40 PM