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The Plus/Minus System For Defense
I am a big fan of John Dewan's plus/minus system for evaluating defense. Read how it works - the system is logical and easy to understand, though the numbers require intense labor to compile.
Plus/minus stats for the current year are available at Bill James Online (sign up for $3 a month), and I've been tossing them around occasionally here at MLBTR. I'm sure they'll continue to come up with regard to this winter's free agent class. For instance Mark Ellis rates a +25 at second base, meaning he made 25 more plays than the average second baseman this year.
Free agent plus/minus leaders at each position:
- First base: Mark Teixeira, +24
- Second base: Mark Ellis, +25
- Shortstop: Cesar Izturis, +17
- Third base: Joe Crede, +13
- Left field: Jay Payton, +3
- Center field: Corey Patterson, +8
- Right field: Brian Giles, +20, Brad Wilkerson, +4
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Corey Patterson? Have fun with that one...
Posted by: GmblngPtchr20 | September 26, 2008 at 12:16 PM
Are there no outstanding LFers? How can the best be only +3 over average?
I get that there will be many LFers that rate as awful. Just surprised none rate as excellent.
Posted by: bjsguess | September 26, 2008 at 01:05 PM
There are much better LFs, just not on the free agent market.
Posted by: Tim Dierkes | September 26, 2008 at 01:24 PM
I'm a Twins fan, so take it with a grain of salt, but I'm really surprised that Carlos Gomez does not rate 1st for CF's. Anyone who's seen him play significant time this year knows that he has easily the most range of any CF right now in the game. And actually, his range factor confirms that.
Posted by: djskilbr | September 26, 2008 at 01:35 PM
I didn't see Sizemore anyhwhere on those lists..this sounds like a good system but I don't understand how the best centerfielder in baseball is nowhere to be seen. Explain?
Posted by: ilulic | September 26, 2008 at 02:13 PM
The above leaders are free agents only. Carl Crawford leads LFs at +23, while Carlos Gomez indeed ranks first among CFs at +33.
Posted by: Tim Dierkes | September 26, 2008 at 02:22 PM
I hate to confuse anyone since one thing I like about plus/minus is its simplicity to understand. But I should point out that except for middle infielders, they also use an "enhanced" number that explains the number of bases saved or lost over an average fielder as opposed to the number of plays. So aside from MIs there is a normal score and an enhanced one for each player. Doesnt really change the rankings much though.
Posted by: Tim Dierkes | September 26, 2008 at 02:50 PM
Thanks Tim for the clarification. Didn't read carefully - missed the fact that this just for FA's.
Good info.
Posted by: bjsguess | September 26, 2008 at 03:20 PM
Thanks, Tim. Much appreciated.
And for the record, I love Grady Sizemore, I think he's a great player (one of the top 5-10 in baseball at least) but there is just no way that he is as good of a defensive CF as Carlos Gomez. And these numbers back that up. Gomez really at another level with his range. He's the fastest player in baseball today.
Posted by: djskilbr | September 26, 2008 at 04:48 PM
It'd be cool if +/- could be presented as a rate stat. But good lord, the fact that these guys watch every play in every game and weigh them based on where they were hit, how hard, etc. is ridiculously awesome.
One thing I'm unclear about: If there are mostly average to below average fielders in the league--say at LF--isn't it possible for the numbers to be skewed? For example, with guys like Manny, Dunn, Carlos Lee, and Cust patrolling left, wouldn't that make an above average fielder appear to be well above average or great?
Posted by: scatterbrian | September 26, 2008 at 05:16 PM
And for minor league games (only AA and AAA), BIS has people at every game since most of the games aren't televised. It's very labor intensive to get good fielding stats. Then again, you don't have to pay people very much to go watch baseball. =)
Posted by: dphillip | September 26, 2008 at 05:45 PM
+/- is the best defensive metric available, as is UZR. They're essentially the same system, but UZR is park-adjusted and is presented in runs above average, not plays. The other main difference is +/- is available throughout the season (if you're subscribed, that is) and UZR is available after the season's over.
And for those of you who like to use WAR, all you have to do is multiply the +/- number by 0.8 to find the run value and then plug it in.
Posted by: Anticon23 | September 26, 2008 at 05:46 PM
Brian Giles is awesome. His great defense is just another reason he's one of the most underrated ballplayers of all time.
Posted by: genericpadsfan | September 27, 2008 at 12:50 AM
A good example of the flaws of the +/- system is that Juan Pierre was in the top 3 in +/- among CFers in 2006
Posted by: AA | September 29, 2008 at 04:50 PM
Try reading up the methodology of the system first before trying to talk about its flaws.
Posted by: Anticon23 | October 03, 2008 at 06:05 PM
"Try reading up the methodology of the system first before trying to talk about its flaws."
I have read up on the methodology and a big portion of it is highly subjective.
Posted by: AA | October 22, 2008 at 01:01 PM