Heyman's Latest: Yankees, K-Rod, Moyer

signing one of the pitchers and going out and getting tex would do more for the future than signing two of three pitcher. considering that you have wang coming back and hughes as your number 3. that would set up a very good rotation for now and than the future.

I think it all depends on whether Mike Mussina and/or Andy Pettitte come back. Obviously if both of them were to come back, then there can be almost no way that the Yankees sign two guys. That would leave them with two of those three, Wang, Pettitte, Chamberlain, Mussina and Hughes.

But then again if neither guy comes back, then the Yankees really would need to sign two of those guys, just so they could have a rotation of those two, Wang, Joba and Hughes.

The Yankees' offseason plans will likely be determined by what teams are willing to move for Robinson Cano as well as whether Pettitte and Moose return.

"I can see Jamie Moyer ending up with a mutual-option type contract with the Phillies that works just like Wakefield's."

I could see something like this too. Like a recurring $7M club option that the Phillies could accept or decline each year, essentially the setup that Wakefield has.

And by the way, has anyone realized that right now the Phillies and Marlins may have the two best rotations in division next season? I think I would rather have Hamels/Myers/Blanton/Moyer/Kendrick or Johnson/Olsen/Nolasco/Sanchez/Miller over a rotation of Santana/Pelfrey/Maine/Niese and some retread.

Cole Hamels is starting to get really, really close to being as good as Johan. A power lefty with a monster change up who can suck up innings.. And Hamels can still get better.

No, 4 signings is both unlikely and shortsighted.

I recognize that there is uncertainty over whether or not pettite and mussina will pitch next year. Neither of their returns to baseball next year would necessarily affect the yankees. neither have options or contract years so if the yankees think that free agency offers better options, the yankees simply don't need to sign them. At the end of the day the player-team relationship is business based, not personal. The yankees showed that they will walk away from long standing yankees if other options are better for the team a la Bernie williams.

Cubs/Rays, if a team signs 2 type As, I believe the team who lost their player first gets the round 1 pick while the second team would get the round 2.

If Moyer can go till he's fifty he has a very real shot at 300 wins. There would be superior pitchers to him already on the outside of the HOF, but I don't think the writers would keep him out just because of that if he hits the magic number of 300 even if it takes him close to 30 years to make it happen.

A team doesn't need to lose as many Type A's (or B's) as they sign, they need to lose at least 2 or 3 less (depending on the number of Type A's that are available). If the Yankees simply lose Giambi, they can sign 3 Type A's (even though Giambi is a Type B).

I'm pretty sure Type A's or B's from their own team (Mussina, Pettitte) don't count towards this total.

I found this post from a commenter on a post back in September which seemed enlightening:

" If fewer than 14 Type A or B players elect free agency, no club may sign more than one such player.

If 15-38 Type A or B players elect free agency, no club may sign more than two such players.

If 39-62 Type A or B players elect free agency, no club may sign more than three such players.

If 63 or more Type A or B players elect free agency, "the Club quotas shall be increased accordingly," according to the basic agreement.

Additionally, a team may sign as many Type A/B FA's as they lost that year, regardless of the other restrictions."

Looking at the free agency list, it seems like there's going to be about 56. The Yankees could conceivably, if they lose Giambi and Abreu, sign 5 Type A free agents if they wanted. It's not much of a restriction.

"Cole Hamels is starting to get really, really close to being as good as Johan. A power lefty with a monster change up who can suck up innings.. And Hamels can still get better."

1) Hamels is not a power lefty. 2) He is not as good a Johan and probably never will be. I worry for Phillies fans that Hamels will become Barry Zito as he gets older.

They're losing Giambi and Abreu. Is this not the definition of losing more players?

What do Yankees fans think Cano would bring back in a trade as mentioned above? Seems like a bad time to move him considering his shine has taken a marginal hit. I absolutely love Cano, and would be willing to offer a nice package if he became available, but I'd like to see what the fans think he is worth.

Speculate those Yankee trades!

"I read a report of a scout that Hamels' changeup is the best in the game, better even now than Johan's."

What scout? Further, having a great changeup, which Hamels assuredly has, does not make you a "power" pitcher.

"He may not put up the numbers Johan has, but really, who in the game today, besides perhaps Lincecum, will?"

Well, there are guys like Sabathia, Peavy, Billingsley and Volquez who already do or have the ability to pitch that well.

"Cole Hamels has become one of the best pitchers, nevermind handedness, in the game. And he's 24. There is a hell of a lot to like."

Hamels, at this point, is an ace. There is no question about it. So was Barry Zito when he was 24. That is why a guy like Hamels is scary.

I never disputed he was a power pitcher. But, as Roy Halladay has shown, you certainly don't need to throw 96 to be good for a long time. Especially when you have as good a changeup as Hamels.

Barry Zito and Cole Hamels are two completely and utterly different pitchers. Just because Zito was good when he was 24, then bad, in no way means that Hamels, or any other pitcher ever for that matter, will follow the exact same career path. In fact, it's rather unlikely.

So stop it.

Its pretty sad that you go into a thread and try and bait others into arguing over something thats unrelated to current discussion. So I repeat, No.

Actually, if you read the comments it is mentioned by Scribbletone so don't blame me. Furthermore, I am not baiting anyone? I am just curious to hear what Yankees fans think. I'm sorry if you are offended, but I find it interesting to gauge what fans of other teams think the value of their players are.

Is that baiting because it sure doesn't sound like it to me?

And btw, that last post was directed at scottsdale, and derman, most people know you for what you are, a Philly troll. AA is in no way a Mets fan. He is a westcoaster LA fan. Just because somebody thinks Johan is better then Hamels doesn't make them a Met fan.

I also will take the Met rotation over the Marlins anyday. Scribble, you are assuming the Mets do nothing to address their rotation. If Lowe comes in, and the rotation looks like Johan, Lowe, Pelfrey, Maine, Niese/Heilman/Pedro, I like the Mets rotation. Even as is, I will take Johan/Pelf/Maine/Pedro/Niese over the Philly rotation. Hamels is an ace, Brett Myers cannot be considered a sure thing in 2009, and Joe Blanton is not very intimidating. Moyer is solid, but Kendrick stinks. Mike Pelfrey is an emerging stud. He threw 200 innings this year and looked like an ace in the second half. The Marlins have a great rotation, but the Philly rotation really doesn't scare me at all outside of Hamels.

And the Marlins rotation has some upside, but its not a sure thing either. Chris Volstad should be in that group, and Josh Johnson is a beast. Nolasco is also very solid, but Miller and Sanchez are questionmarks. They are young, and there are always injury concerns with Johnson, Nolasco and Sanchez.

Juice, quit playing the role of the martyr. You can go into any other thread pertaining to cano and see the expectations of yankees fans.

NR, you shouldn't be so naive. The headline is yankees but a very focused topic.

No Scottscale I cannot. Please feel free to take the time and link me a thread with Yankee fans expectations. Otherwise, I will use the most recent thread, with the most recent suggestions, to get an idea of Yankee's fans most recent thoughts because this is a game about recency. So if you have a problem with me posing a hypothetical question on a website about, hypothetical rumors, then I would suggest you find a forum when people only discuss things that ACTUALLY happened.

juice I never brought up any sort of Yankee trade proposal, those are the worst kind. I was simply discussing their starting pitching situation, I didn't realize it would create a ruckus.

And nrmax, I do totally agree that adding Lowe to the Mets' rotation would make it better than Philadelphia's. IF the Mets add a key starter to that rotation, my whole comment from before becomes worthless.

And by the way, my mistake on the Hamels is a power lefty thing I thought he threw harder than he does. I still think he's closing in on Johan as the best starter in that division though

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2008/10/possible-cano-s.html#comments

There you go. Actually was under the headline titled "Possible Cano Suitors". Looking usually helps instead of asking the same question over and over.

"1) Hamels is not a power lefty."

What planet are you on? Im not even a Philly fan but that guys stuff is FILTHY. And his upside potential is huge. Your comparison to Barry Zito is poorly thought out and really doesn't hold a whole lot of water due to the fact that it is based on absolutely nothing, nor can it be. For your ignorant post I hope the Phillies whoop up on your Dodgers in the NLCS.

"The reason why no one will comment on the cano trade rumors is b/c there was already a thread that had over 150 comments regarding cano."

I disagree. I think the reason nobody has answered is hat Scottsdale woke up on the wrongside of his bed with his panties all in a bunch, and other Yankee fans haven't come across the question yet. I think there would be more then a few Yankee fans willing to discuss Cano's trade value in this very thread. I just hope the blog police don't come after us for not sticking to the "very focused topic".

I think this is actually the first time I have ever been on MLBTR where a thread got off topic. Who woulda thunk it.

that is very true about hamels and your point is why hamels will not be the next "zito". there were many times when hamels hit past 89 mph on the gun and that is when is was at his best.

"I think this is actually the first time I have ever been on MLBTR where a thread got off topic. Who woulda thunk it."

That's not true. I've seen many a thread where it somehow goes into the Cubs or Yankees, even if the post isn't about either team. Fans just find ways to relate it to their team, and then elaborating, which then leads to discussion on the wrong topic. It happens, most of the time I could care less.

And the Hamels-Zito comparisons are pretty unfair. Zito was throwing 88-92 when he was in his prime, with a simply nasty curve. As he's gotten older though he's lost velocity on his fastball, and he's lost some bite on his curve too. Combine the loss in velocity with the loss in bite, and you end up with a pitcher who is very, very lost.

With Hamels though, it's different. He depends on a changeup, rather than a curve. He currently throws his fastball about 90-93, setting it up with an average curve and the best change in baseball, arguably. Even if he loses 2-3 MPH on his fastball, he'd still be dominant because his changeup would still be noticably slower than his fastball. He would still be able to fool hitters the way he does now.

Imagine having this rotation?

Wang
Sabathia
Burnett/Lowe
Chamberlain/Hughes
Mussina/Pettitte

That would be one of the most feared rotations in the league.

SpecialFNK-http://riveraveblues.com/2008/10/01/cash-joba-will-be-a-starte-in-2009-4870/
Way to speculate about Joba, maybe next time you should look around, or not comment at all.

And why can they not pretend Cano's 2008 did not happen. The Yankees know what he is capable of doing, so one bad year isn't going to change their value of him. If he is on the trading block, they will value him the way they have seen him play, not the one bad year.

this is what i wrote about Cano in the other thread..

"why is it just assumed that Cano's value is based on his 2006 numbers rather than the numbers he had in his other seasons? ill admit he is probually better than his 2008 overall numbers. (i said 07 in other thread, but meant 08)
i wouldnt expect a repeat of what he did in 2006. in 06 he had .363 BABIP which is high, so i doubt he ever hits that good again.
if you throw out his april 2008 numbers his other months combined are- .297 AVG/ .325 OBP/ .447 SLG/ .772 OPS/. i would think those are more reasonable numbers for him.
i dont see why other teams would be lining up to trade for Cano anyway. 2B isnt very deep with elite players, but i certainly wouldnt put Cano in the elite class. hes Placido Polanco with a little more power.
in a trade Cano could probually bring back a #3 type SP. anyone better than that is just wishful thinking."

as for Joba. IMO the best move for him would be to start the season in the bullpen and become a starter into the season. a whole season of starter innings probually isnt going to be good for his arm. he started the 08 season in the BP and once he became a starter and was adding up the innings he got hurt. an entire season of starting theres probually a risk of that happening again.
as somsone who doesnt like the Yankees i could care less. go ahead and start him in April and see what happens.

Honestly why does everyone want Sabathia so bad? First of all lets talk about CC. He had a break out year last year with the Indians and won the cy young, meanwhile throwing 241 innings which is a massive amount for any pitcher. Then when the indians got into the play offs, he got rocked. The next year he began with the indians and had a mediocre season at best. But he turned it around when he moved to Milwaukee where he was nothing short of dominant. He threw 253 innings total and 10 cgs. And once again got rocked in the playoffs cause he was so tired from carrying them into the playoffs.

Now a free agent, hes going to look for a massive contract, for a long time. Theres 2 things i see wrong with him as a yankee. 1. Hes thrown 494 innings the past two years, if he keeps up that pace theres no doubt he will blow out his arm in the next 1-3 years. And with him looking for a long contract that seems to be a problem. 2. With the Yankees, its either a World series championship or a failure. And a player that has choked everytime he took the mound in the playoffs (and who wants another arod :]) won't be able to make it here. The media will eat him up and chew him out and he'll never be successful with the yankees.

slasherized- "And a player that has choked everytime he took the mound in the playoffs"

He is 2-3 career in the playoffs. And even though wins and losses are not a great way to measure how great someone is, however, I don't see how two wins are choking every time.

He had one start this year, which was what, his fourth or fifth start on three days rest. Way to read something in the media, and then use it as fact.

i said Cano is better than his 08 numbers, but i dont think he is as good as his 06 numbers.
his BABIP for his seasons..
05- .320
06- .363
07- .331
08- .286
Cano in 2008 was different from May-September than he was in April. April was a bad month for him. in April his AVG was .151 with .156 BABIP. if you add up his other monthly BABIP for 08 cominbed- .310 BABIP.
IMO Cano is probually a combination of 05 and 07.

i comment on the Yankees because i dont really like the Yankees. i enjoy seeing them down and hope to continue to see them down.

"There is no way in hell that Hamels is even close to Santana. Just no way. Hamels will turn out to be the next Barry Zito while Johan shits on the Phillies and the rest of the MLB. And yes, I'm a Mets fan, and proud to be one!

P.S. Go Dodgers in NLCS! Philadelphia Sports is a joke...some of the biggest big-mouthed hotheads in sports play or have played there...TO, Iverson, and Rollins. Checkmate."

Way to go. Really classy. Real objective. There is nothing more annoying then some little kid who can't admit when another team has a superstar player. If you are not a little kid, then that's even worse.

By the way, I will take A-Rod and Sabathia on my team anyday slasherized. When are some of these idiots going to realize that A-Rod is possibly the best player ever, and stop dogging the guy? By the way, .280/.360/.480 is harldy "choking", especially when all those numbers are compiled in added up sample sizes of like 20 at bats each. It is just so stupid it is hard to fathom. Maybe the Yankees should worry about adding some pitching to get them past the first round (A-Rod is a career .315/.413/.611.
The dam choker.

A power pitcher doesnt have to throw 95+. a power pitcher is someone who strikes people out, and uses that as his main way of getting people out.

Hamels is a stud and no ones going to "tinker" with his mechanics like they did with Zito. Its still too early to put him at Johans level but hes well on his way there. and by the end of this post season he may very well get there.

If CC were to get hurt then so be it. but we all know CC is an "if he gets hurt" and Burrnett is a "when he gets hurt."

Dont trade Cano. If you truly believe that his going to win batting titles then show some backbone and stick with him.

A-Rod is the best player in baseball and the only person you can use to argue against that is Albert Pujols.

Sabathia to the Dodgers
Lowe to the Mets
Burnett to the Yankees

There you go.

I don't know why teams are interested in Lowe especially since he's going to probably require 4 years, and he's 35 already. I just don't think that signing an aging pitcher, which is what the Yankees have done for the past years, is a good idea along with handing him 15m+ a year. IMO, it'd be a bad signing.

If the Yankees do offer arbitration to Marte, they may look at a reliever like Will Ohman in order to keep two lefties in the pen. They were inquiring about him at the trade deadline before acquiring Marte, and he would be a cheaper option.

Why in the world would the Yankees want Burnett, Lowe and Sabathia?

Don't they still have Phillip Hughes and Ian Kennedy (plus Melkey Cabrera)?

Last off-season we heard all about how guys were going to be much better than Johan Santana in 2008 - That came to fruition, right?

Thank God the Yankees didn't make that deal - They might have made the playoffs. :)

Alright I may have overreacted, but I still think that Hamels is not as good as Johan. Maybe in 3 years or so you can start making comparisons....The top 5 pitchers in the MLB are:

Santana
Sabathia
Cliff Lee
Webb
Lincecum

TC, the only people who ever said Hughes and Kennedy would be better than Johan in 2008 were Yankee haters that felt the need to mock them for not making the trade.

The expectation is that by the time you hit the midpoint of Johan's contract, Hughes will be the better pitcher and a lot cheaper. Kennedy is a 3-5 starter expected to be solid but not spectacular. Not an untouchable, but for the next 6 seasons or so (remember, he has < 1 year service time), he'll cost very little and will be better than your Pavano/Jaret Wright/Lohse/Silva types that tend to fill out rotations.

In the end, trading for Johan would have been a win now, regret it later deal, which the Yankees are trying to get away from.

How can people be willing to put Tim Lincecum in the top 5 pitchers in baseball, but not Cole Hamels? That seems crazy to me. Hamels has put up almost the same line as Lincecum, done it for longer, done it in a division of really good offensive teams(besides the Nats, the NL east can mash), and done it in a launching pad. Not to take anything away from Lincecum, but he has had one good season, in a pitiful hitting league (the dodgers can mash right now, but that wasn't the case all year), in as good of a park to pitch in as a hitter can imagine. I am almost positive I would take Hamels over Lincecum. Timmy is great, but I don't think he is as great as people really think he is. I would move Lincecum over Cain, because I think Cain will be the more durable guy going forward, and you could fetch and absolutely mind boggling package from somebody. The pitching would still be good with Cain, Sanchez, Zito, Lowry, and Alderson and Bumgarner on the way. Maybe even sign CC. I know, the Giant fans will go nuts, saying Lincecum is far superior to Hamels, saying it would take a package of Reyes, Wright, Beltran, and Maine to make it happen. I don't really care, I am just stating my opinion.

My top 5 pitchers in baseball, in no particular order.

Johan Santana
Roy Halladay
CC Sabathia
Jake Peavy *
Brandon Webb

* Peavy is a guy I am a bit skeptical of, because of his injury risk, and how he will fare outside of San Diego. But his numbers speak for themselves right now, and there is no way he could not be in the top 5.

Honarable Mentions...

Josh Beckett
John Lackey
Cole Hamels
Dan Haren
Tim Lincecum
Aaron Harang, bad 2008 aside.
Jon Lester is getting close also.

Any other suggestions

"The expectation is that by the time you hit the midpoint of Johan's contract, Hughes will be the better pitcher and a lot cheaper. Kennedy is a 3-5 starter expected to be solid but not spectacular. Not an untouchable, but for the next 6 seasons or so (remember, he has < 1 year service time), he'll cost very little and will be better than your Pavano/Jaret Wright/Lohse/Silva types that tend to fill out rotations."

I am not sure that Hughes will be better then Sanatan when Santana is 32. In fact I doubt it. But I see your point, and agree with it. He will almost certainly be more valuable then Santana 3 or 4 years from now. But by the time Johan's contract is up, or coming to a close, when he is 35/36, Hughes should be better, and just entering his prime. I absolutely would not have traded Hughes, even straight up for Santana. It is so easy to look back and bash Cashman now, but most people were all for keeping Hughes and it annoys me all the grief Cashman gets from these idiot Yankee fans all over, as if Hughes is already a bust. The NY airwaves are flooded with these people.

That seems reasonable. I prefer Joba in the rotation, but it is refresshing all the same to see a Yankee fan post a postseason plan that doesn't include....

Sign CC
Sign Lowe
Sign Tex
Sign Manny
Sign Orlando Hudson
Trade Cano for Jake Peavy
etc.

That is a dangerous lineup too. Magglio just has a lineup presence that Nady doesnt have.

"I am not sure that Hughes will be better then Sanatan when Santana is 32. In fact I doubt it."

Of course. Very, very, few players are ever as good as Santana is, so the odds are tremendously against it. But you don't keep your prospects based on conservative projections, you keep them based on the potential upside.

"it annoys me all the grief Cashman gets from these idiot Yankee fans all over, as if Hughes is already a bust. The NY airwaves are flooded with these people."

Due to blogs, the traditional sports media is mainly about generating controversy to get attention. You could make a case that it's also true outside of sports, but that's not a discussion for this site.