Jake Peavy Rumors: Thursday

It's gonna end up Valverde to the mets, mets ship some prospects with SOME of the few from the astros and a major leaguer to Pad's for Peavy

HAHA sorry its "dreaming Thursday" in my world

This is starting to sound like last year's Santana soap opera. But I have a feeling Wren won't let this drag out too much longer. He's got a long shopping list!!

All I know is that I am tired of hearing about the Peavy trade. It's the same saga we heard with Brian Roberts, then with Johan Santana and if he was going to the Yankees, Mets, Sox, etc. Please just make the trade!!!

The Miller trade is not a "quality" trade. Kevin Towers said in the beginning he would take two or three quality players - and, other than maybe Yunel, these players are not quality.

I think Hernandez is borderline on quality...he could end up being pretty good in PETCO, especially defensively. However, I have to agree...he went back on his word and took quantity instead of quality.

Cmon guys, Peavy and his family are in Puerto Rico, that is the only reason this trade has not been finalized. When he comes home today they will ask him to waive his no trade clause and the trade will be completed. Wren does not have time to play games. Tomorrow you will all be back on this site analyzing the deal but the headlines will read Jake Peavy to ATL.

"other than maybe Yunel, these players are not quality."

Gorkys isn't quality? I think he's better than Jordan Schafer. Say what you want about Morton and Boyer.

I'm so tired of hearing that Peavy would rather play for the Cubs. Why would he?? The Cubs haven't won anything in how long??? The Braves get Peavy, sign one of Lowe or Burnett to go along with JJ and they have a solid first three. Then spend the remaining money on a LF and SS replacement and they are a solid contender. The Cubbies can have Dempster, he's not that good. Braves pull of these moves and they are just as good as any team in the NL East.

"I'm so tired of hearing that Peavy would rather play for the Cubs. Why would he?? "

The Cubs are better in every way than the Braves, except the minor leagues. They won 97 games last year, and play in an easier divison that is probably going to be easier for them to win next year than it was this year. Plus, Chicago sells out every game...something fun to be around. I respect the Braves as a franchise, and its in no way a knock against them...but its not that difficult to figure out why he would like to be traded to the Cubs.

Braves + Peavy - Escobar means they still have a lot of work to do to contend with the Phils and Mets.

"I think Hernandez is borderline on quality...he could end up being pretty good in PETCO, especially defensively. However, I have to agree...he went back on his word and took quantity instead of quality."

How so? because he's not the team's #1, 2, or 3 best prospect? You're a joke and sour one as well. If the Braves get Peavy, I would take the combo of him and Jurrjens over ANYTHING the Cubs have. Big Z is so overrated it's not even funny. Sometimes I wonder if he was better suited to being a DH. LOL And please do not bring up Rich harden. Teammates are probably afraid to even touch the guy thinking he might get hurt from doing so.

"The fact that the cubs had a much better season than the braves did last year is of course going to make them much more attractive. With that being said, I beleive Peavy knows that wherever he ends up, that team will also sign another good #2 pitcher. I can't wait to see the Braves rotation this year if we can land Peavy!!!! "

Posted by: gobravos0818 | November 13, 2008 at 10:11 AM

If the Braves do get Peavy, then the chances of them getting Burnett as well definitely increases.

"I'm so tired of hearing that Peavy would rather play for the Cubs. Why would he?? The Cubs haven't won anything in how long??? The Braves get Peavy, sign one of Lowe or Burnett to go along with JJ and they have a solid first three. Then spend the remaining money on a LF and SS replacement and they are a solid contender."

Sorry, but your wishlist is easier said than done. Big ifs whether Braves will sign this and that, while the Cubs are more complete already.

The fact that Flowers went 3-4 with 3hrs and 7rbis lastnight makes the Braves even more hesitant. I can't remember the last time they had a true power hitting trio a la Flowers, Freeman, and Heyward..

i think what most people are failing to realize is that frank wren is not making this move so much to win NOW, as to ensure that when tim hudson comes back next year, our front 3 will be really good. on top of that with peavy signed for 5 years, and our unreal crop of minor league talent coming along, i think he's doing this more to ensure that we will have an ace when heyward, freeman, hanson, flowers, teheran, schafer, rohrbough, medlen... etc all of our really good prospects bust in around 2010 or so

Also, will Braves fans PLEASE stop bringing up putting Flowers and Lillibridge in place of Escobar? Escobar is the CENTERPIECE, you cannot replace him with 1 A prospect and a bad shortstop, im sorry. It's either Heyward, Hanson or Escobar as the centerpiece, no way around it.

"I'm so tired of hearing that Peavy would rather play for the Cubs. Why would he??The Cubs haven't won anything in how long???"
saying he would approve a trade to the cubs makes this statement not only irrelevant and dumb, but wrong as well. my gut feeling tells me he wants to play for the cubs, rather than the braves, for reasons stated above (in a better position to win now, easier division, etc.) and if i'm wrong, i guess i'll have to come here and complain about it to ease my pain. of course, if you start talking about curses and goats and bartman and such, then i can happily ignore you as a simpleton. in short, you'll have to do better than that.

HA

The issue with Peavy is that if he demands that his option year be guaranteed and the no trade clause be made full, his deal isn't that below market. (While Peavy is definitely better, and his injury history is certainly less of a deterrent, compare Peavy's contract to what Sheets gets this offseason)

And if is the case, the value of the deal isn't so much the contract, but the fact that the Padres control the contract. Therefore, it's stupid to compare the overall utility of the players being traded without weighing against against it the amount that they are being paid.

Under this light, the offer that the Braves have is extremely generous, especially when considering it appears that there is not much competition.

Bravesfan, because at that point a Cubs offer including Vitters would blow it out of the water. You need Escobar for that protection.

Bickering aside, I think it would be highly unprofessional, close to "bad faith negotiating", for Peavy to refuse a trade to the Braves at this point.

No one put a gun to his head when he listed Atlanta as one of the teams he'd accept a trade to, over a month ago.

It may not matter to Peavy, but I'd think his agent's credibility would take quite a shot if the Braves are not even a possible target for him.

Also, perhaps Peavy would enjoy playing in front of actual Braves fans when pitches at home.

Speaking of the Cubs, will never forget the playoff series in Atlanta where we outnumbered their own fans. What dedication by the Brave faithful.

"Bravesfan, because at that point a Cubs offer including Vitters would blow it out of the water. You need Escobar for that protection."

Where has been made known that Vitters is apart of the Cubs package for Peavy?

"Decent is a pretty lowblow if you ask me. I mean, I could say the same thing about the "great" Vitters. Bottomline, lets keep the projections out of this because you obviously are pretty bias when doing so."

Saying Hernandez could be decent in an EXTREMELY pitcher friendly ballpark is a lowblow? Wow...thats why I didn't ask you.

"Why, because I don't use beloved stats? ok...you're beginning to sound like a tool dude."

I sound like a tool because I want you to use something called evidence to back up your opinions? Right...

"Bickering aside, I think it would be highly unprofessional, close to "bad faith negotiating", for Peavy to refuse a trade to the Braves at this point."

Agreed AtlantaMike, I think you are right about this.

why would the padres want a trade centered with vitters.... he is projected out to what escobar is now. why would they take a might-be when they can have someone who is?

"On this very website...a link from more than one source saying they are discussing a package centered around Josh Vitters."

And on this very site, it's been noted that the Padres might be proving my own theory, that the Cubs were basically used as bait so the Braves would increase their current offer.

Anyway, I can't wait until this Peavy mess is over.

btw Peavy, Burnett and Jurrjens>>>>Zambrano, Harden, and dempster

nixa,
That's what i was trying to say before just in much more confusing terms. Thanks. LOL

"That's only because the Padres play in Petco, where home run distance gets you a double."

:) got a laugh from me

"I can guarantee the next time we do"

The next time you do? LOL, not looking too good if you can't win just ONE WS in the past century.

"why would the padres want a trade centered with vitters.... he is projected out to what escobar is now."

No, no he isn't. He is "projected" to be much better.

"As far as bringing in Peavy helping the Braves get another free agent, it is certainly a small difference but I'd argue there is one."

I actually am not arguing this. I think it helped sign Lilly that Soriano had just signed with us...but maybe thats just me. I don't think its a huge difference though...money is the main factor. Peavy might give them a 5% better chance, in my estimation.

"Well if the scouts aren't biased, then what basis do you have to argue is Gorkys only an "ok" prospect?"

He doesn't really even have a ceiling of an all-star...just an above average center fielder. I like his defense though, especially in Petco. His ceiling would be hitting like 10 to 15 HR a year...put that in PETCO, and he will have to hit a lot of doubles to make up for it. The good news is, he might. I like him...just don't love him. He is ok for a 2nd peice, don't get me wrong. I included him in the quality, and I'll say he is a pretty good prospect, not just ok. I just don't think they got anyone with that high of a ceiling here...thats all I'm saying.

Damnit Cubbyfan, you totally beat me to it.... oh well.. I took too long to make my point, haha

CubbyFan23,

Wow, the Braves weren't able to sell out tickets to a middle of the week divisional series game in their 12th consecutive playoff appearance. At that point, simply reaching the divisional series wasn't exciting. Pretty much every Braves fan had already been to many playoff games at that point, so the 1st couple games weren't exactly a big ticket item. Obviously, if the Braves had made it to the next round, every single ticket would have sold out. Its easy for a fanbase to become fickle when you have the sort of run the Braves did.

As for their being a ton of Cubs fans there, that's not exactly surprising. The majority of people living in Atlanta are transplants who moved from other areas of the country. Obviously the people who grew up Cubs fans that reside in Atlanta are going to take a once in a lifetime opportunity to see there team play a playoff game in Atlanta far more seriously than Atlanta fans are going to take "just another" divisional series game.

njbraves,

I could say the same thing about Braves fans, and just focus on the one tool that has been spewing opinion for two days without backing one thing he said up with any evidence.

Don't judge a whole fan base on a person's comments...it makes you look simple minded.

"There is nothing wrong with spending a year a piece in rookie ball, low-A ball, and high-A ball from the ages of 18-20. Obviously the big test will be next year when he's in AA."

I guess there is nothing wrong with it...but you would like to see him be higher by the age of 21. Either way, I'm not holding it against him that much, just making a point.

He will be 21 and just getting to AA, so there is still a substantial amount of risk there.

"CubbyFan23,

Wow, the Braves weren't able to sell out tickets to a middle of the week divisional series game in their 12th consecutive playoff appearance. At that point, simply reaching the divisional series wasn't exciting. Pretty much every Braves fan had already been to many playoff games at that point, so the 1st couple games weren't exactly a big ticket item. Obviously, if the Braves had made it to the next round, every single ticket would have sold out. Its easy for a fanbase to become fickle when you have the sort of run the Braves did.

As for their being a ton of Cubs fans there, that's not exactly surprising. The majority of people living in Atlanta are transplants who moved from other areas of the country. Obviously the people who grew up Cubs fans that reside in Atlanta are going to take a once in a lifetime opportunity to see there team play a playoff game in Atlanta far more seriously than Atlanta fans are going to take "just another" divisional series game."

I was being facetious and annoying on purpose. I could care less how packed your stands are just like I could care less about the 75 years of Cub history I wasn't around for. :) Most Braves fans I knew down in the southeast know their stuff. However, you have to deal with (like Cub fans) the ones who have hopped on board and know nothing about the actual game. Such is life.

I cannot stand people who are close minded about the game and other teams because they're blinded by their own fan-dom. Being a fan is great. Giving an idiotic and ridiculous opinion because you're a fan is not.

Also, Gorkys is a perfect fit for that ballpark. I like him in the trade a lot, but would be kind of surprised if they liked him over Schafer? Is that the case?

btw Peavy, Burnett and Jurrjens>>>>Zambrano, Harden, and dempster

WOW when did Burnett sign with the Braves, did i miss that one???

I was under the impression that Schafer was supposed to be GG quality defense. Is Hernandez better in that department or just a quicker defender as well overall?

At 20, Gorky's was among the youngest players the Carolina League. If you look at the rosters for that league, you'll see the vast majority of players (especially position players) were 22+.

For the Braves, AA is the jumping off point to the majors. They use AAA more as a holding tank for older players who may be brought up to sub for an injured player, not much as a developmental league.

If he stayed with Atlanta, I'd expect him at AA in '09, and on the big league roster in 2010, at age 22.

Everything I've read suggest Gorkys has the tools to be "great." Most scouts even expect him to hit for good power as he develops. And he's not just fast... he's got blazing speed.

He didn't really progress that much in '08... don't know how much the hamstring injury had to do with that, but he was off to a huge start before getting hurt in May.

In April, 5 doubles, 5 triples, 2 HR and a .946 OPS. He was never really the same after missing May with the hammy.

To say Vitters is projected to be "much better than Escobar" is stupid. He sure does have potential to be much better than Escobar, but you know who else had potential to be "much better than Escobar" at A ball? Well, Escobar for 1; insert any busted Cubs prospect here. To take any single-A right-handed 3rd baseman prospect and say he's "projected to" crank out more than 15 win shares a season in 3 years is absurd. (Escobar had 12 and 13 for the past 2 seasons you'd have to be above 15 to be "much better") That's like taking any young, promising pitching prospect and say he's the next (Maddux, Smoltz, Glavine, Bob Gibson, Sandy Koufax, Steve Carlton, etc..), it's just ridiculous. You'd be wrong more than 99% of the time to say this pitching prospect is going to win 300 games. Nobody projects to do that. Minor league numbers and the first few major league seasons don't tell the whole story, so to extrapolate that Vitters is going to be much better than Escobar is a ridiculous statement. Vitters COULD be better than Escobar, he COULD be better than Albert Pujols, but the chances are far greater that he never starts a game. Really good draft picks only make it to the Bigs 25% of the time. Plus, Vitters' numbers weren't even that great last year. He's a typical power-hitter, his batting average was great, didn't draw enough walks, had a high slugging percentage, and struck out too much. In his minor league career he has only hit 290/327/435 with 16 BB and 64 K and he's only hit 5 home runs. That's not even good for MLB and he's been at low single A for 280 of his career 324 at-bats. So, to say he is "projected" to be much better than Escobar is ridiculous. He wouldn't get 12 win shares with his single-A numbers, much less in the bigs. Plus, Yunel Escobar plays a tougher position better than everyone in MLB except Jimmy Rollins.

No chance the Braves are as popular as the Cubs....anyway moving on.

As a Cubs fan I just want this to get through today without being done. The longer this drags out, the better chance the Cubs have (if they have one at all). Maybe Peavy does want to be a Cub.

"To say Vitters is projected to be "much better than Escobar" is stupid. He sure does have potential to be much better than Escobar, but you know who else had potential to be "much better than Escobar" at A ball? Well, Escobar for 1;"

No it isn't. Escobar never had the ceiling that Vitters does now. Ever.

Will he hit it? Who knows? I'm just saying that projections and ceilings wise, Vitters is an absolute beast. We will see what happens...and I've always said that. He may never make it past AA, who knows?

Escobar had an OPS+ of 103! He is good, he isn't that good. I like him as a player!!! I'm not bashing him here at all. I would have just wanted a blue chip prospect in the deal if I were the Braves, its as simple as that.

I don't mean to act stupid, but for those saying Vitters is a lesser or equal commodity to Escobar because Escobar is playing pro ball now, again, how would you act if you guys throw in Heyward over Yunel?

Aduncaroo,

I think you are conflating projection and ceiling to a large extent, and are really only considering value from the offensive perspective. Escobar projects to OBP .380-.390 while playing a great defensive SS, which probably translates to a WARP of between 6 and 7. I'd say Vitters projects to a be a guy with a WARP between 8 and 10, with a ceiling between 10 and 13. Considering the Yunel is almost certain to reach that projection, while Vitters is at best a 50-50 proposition to reach his projection, I'd take Yunel in a heartbeat.

Escobar's value is not in that he hits well. He doesn't hit that well, especially not for power. He does, however, get on base, run well, and play short-stop better than any other short-stop in the majors apart from Rollins. OPS+ doesn't nearly tell the story for a player like Escobar, whose OPS+ suffers from a lack of slugging percentage which isn't nearly as valuable as his on-base percentage and his other tools (defense, speed). OPS+ is a misleading statistic for a player who relies on his ability to get on base more-so than his slugging percentage, especially if he plays a premium position. And you're right Vitters has a higher ceiling, but to say someone is going to hit their ceiling is a 1-1000 shot. Honestly it could be a better move for the Braves to include Heyward instead of Escobar, but Heyward is probably close to having the highest ceiling of any prospect in any organization so it's probably not worth the risk he turns out a flop and could be a huge impact player. But, the Braves have Schafer, Hernandez, Francoeur (they'll never give up on him), and a few more outfielders in the farm whereas the list of skilled defensive infielders includes Brent Lillibridge. So maybe it'd be a better organizational move to keep Escobar and trade Heyward. Though I'd want to keep more (Hernandez) if we gave up Heyward. Plus, with Escobar you know what you're getting for 4 more years. With Heyward you've got the rest of the minors then 6 years of who the heck knows.

Cubs apparently trade for right handed reliever gregg of marlins

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/8790658/Sources:-Cubs-land-Gregg-in-deal-with-Marlins

"Cubs apparently trade for right handed reliever gregg of marlins"

I'd like to see confirmation, but great move. Guards against the possibility of Wood walking away. Gregg could still be a very good set up man.

http://miamiherald.typepad.com/fish_bytes/2008/11/gregg-to-cubs.html

Wow. Jose Ceda for Kevin Gregg?!?!?!?!

Ceda is like the Cubs 3rd best prospect. Kevin Gregg walked 4.5 guys per 9 innings. What an awful trade for the Cubbies.

espn has the story too

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=3700730

If Ceda is going to Florida that would seem to kill the Padres bargaining position, assuming the Braves don't believe Vitters will be moved and the Cubs don't actually intend to move him. The Cubs just can't build a respectable package without Vitters at this point.

"Because he has a far more advanced approach at the plate than Vitters does, Heyward is significantly more likely to reach his projection than Vitters is. Heyward is one of the top 2-3 positional prospects in the game, while Vitters is simply an elite prospect. There is a pretty huge difference between those two groupings, at least in terms of their value on the open market."

Oh I agree that Heyward is much better than Vitters. What I'm saying though is that to say a high upside prospect in lower minors is less valuable than an average upside guy in the majors (ie. Vitters & Heyward>Escobar) is something I disagree with.

And yes, I'd have to agree the Peavy to Chicago deal is dead unless for some reason the Cubs plan to deal Marmol and use Gregg to close (terrifying thought).

Surprising that after all the posturing, it seems like the Cubs were the first team to move on.