Giants Sign Randy Johnson

The Giants are in good position now for next season and really only should go after 1 more bat for either corner infield position, then wait to see if teams get desperate for something and make them an offer they can't refuse. Maybe next midseason they will be in the market for trades.

As for now, I think they should focus on Swisher or Wigginton, with Swisher being the preference if they can make the trade without including Sanchez.

Stay away from Dunn and Burrell as both will be expensive and are defensive liabilities. Both are not long term solutions and the Giants are built to win long term starting next season.

Leave the starting pitching staff intact for the season and hope Lowry gives them a surplus sometime next season. If a team like the Nats or Rangers makes them an offer they cannot refuse, take it. Next season we should see Bumgarner, Pucetas, Alderson, Martinez, and possibly Sosa pushing for a rotation spot with only 1 open after the Lowry/Johnson departures via FA.

There's a good breakdown at http://nuschlersnews.blogspot.com/

2009 Bill James Handbook Projections:

1b) Schierholtz - 536 ab / 73 r / 17 Hr / 74 Rbi / 12 Sb / .299

2b) Burriss - 562 ab / 80 r / 2 Hr / 43 Rbi / 29 Sb / .276

ss) Renteria - 569 ab / 84 r / 11 Hr / 69 Rbi / 9 Sb / .286

3b) Sandoval - 540 ab / 90 r / 17 Hr / 103 Rbi / 0 sb / .320

c) Molina - 527 ab / 45 r / 17 Hr / 83 Rbi / 0 sb / .277

lf) Lewis - 498 ab / 84 r / 10 Hr / 49 Rbi / 21 Sb / .277

cf) Rowand - 580 ab / 79 r / 18 Hr / 74 Rbi / 5 Sb / .276

rf) Winn - 586 ab / 77 r / 11 Hr / 57 Rbi / 17 Sb / .287

2009 SF Starting Pitching Projections:

1) Lincecum (17-9) 240 IP / 192 H / 94 BB / 272 K / 3.02 ERA

2) Cain (13-11) 213 IP / 185 H / 92 BB / 192 K / 3.57 ERA

3) Johnson - (12-7) 170 IP / 153 H / 41 BB / 178 K / 3.40 era

4) Zito - (10-12) 197 IP / 184 H / 84 BB / 139 K / 3.94 ERA

5) Sanchez - (7-8) 131 IP / 121 H / 64 BB / 140 K / 3.90 ERA

N. Lowry - (5-4) 76 IP / 75 H / 35 BB / 49 K / 4.26 ERA

The Giants should look into Hideki Matsui. He's old so it makes sense.

I'm not sure manny's attitude was much of a problem in LA. I mean don't get me wrong, it is one of the main reasons that Boston let him go, but I think it is clear that Giants could wiggle out a little extra cash (CC Rumors - I know they were never confirmed but some baseball execs think the giants could have a larger payroll).

I'm also not convinced that Manny would really hurt the youth movement as it is. In fact, I think he could not only protect, but inspire some of our younger hitters to reach new milestones. I have heard that the interest in Manny is shallow, so if we could match something like a two year 45-55MM, w/ our pitching, we would certainly be a favorite for our division and definitely be able to compete with the Cubs, Phils, Mets, and the rest of NL's elite.

J. Crede? you not even sure the guy can play with his injury.

I'll take Wiggy over Crede.

As nice as Manny would look in the middle of the Giants lineup, he is going to sign with the Yankee's. That is why they are trying to clear 1-2 OF out of Matsui ($13 Mil), Damon ($13 mil), Nady ($7 mil), and Swisher ($5.2 mil). As it stands right now, after all three signings they just made, and with the expiring contracts from last season gone, the Yankee's are actually $12 mil still below last years total team salary. If they clear just 1 of these contracts, they can virtually offer Manny a $22-23 mil/year deal and barely change their payroll.

That is partially why I think the Giants should get in on Swisher. http://nuschlersnews.blogspot.com/2008/12/welcome-randy-johnson-now-our-cy-youngs.html

Well, the Dodgers let Johnson slip through their fingers. I can pass on that, as I wasn't too optimistic about him giving 150+ innings, so I'm fine with him getting through our grasp.

I say the Dodgers now should strongly take a look at Andy Pettitte. I wouldn't mind a two year deal at around $22-$26 million. For what he would give us, remember in the NL West coming from the AL Beast, would be a pretty good line for a #3 or #4 starter:
-13-15 wins, and a slightly sub 4.00ERA.

Although, the only way I say Pettitte signing with the Dodgers is if Manny gets signed. As a Dodgers fan, I concede that the Giants rotation is better with this signing, but their bullpen certainly isn't, and their lineup, even with Manny not penciled in for the Blue Crew, isn't.

Affeldt was a nice addition, but he is no Hong Chi Kuo. Howry is a...fireman, or firestarter depending on who you talk to, at best. Wilson has NASTY stuff, but needs to control it. Hinshaw is a great lefty, but his walk and WHIP scare me (29 walks in 39IP, 1.51WHIP).

Overall the Giants have so little pop, under-perform the Dodgers at every position:
1B: James Loney over Ishikawa or Frandsen
2B: DeWitt over Burriss or Velez
SS: Furcal over Renteria
3B: Sandoval over Blake (if Sandoval continues to succeed)
LF: Pierre (as of right now) even with Lewis (Pierre's speed and low K's make him even)
CF: Kemp CLEARLY over Rowand
RF: Ethier over Winn (look at the numbers)
C: Martin over Molina (Molina is offensive, and Martin is the whole package...almost all 5-tools). Plus I'll take Martin's OBP any day over Molina's.

At this point, Manny should be the Dodgers PRIORITY ONE! We have in-house solutions for the rotation (McDonald, Stults - an unsung spot starter last year, and Elbert). We did have the top NL ERA last year, and we lost Beimel (who is probably replaced by either Elbert or Stults - both worthy), and Lowe, who SHOULD be replaced by Pettitte IMO.

Overall, the Giants and Dodgers are even (as of now). Because I love pitching, and the Giants have it completely. The Dodgers have a fantastic bullpen with Wade, Broxton, Kuo, Elbert/Stults, McDonald/Troncoso. But their rotation remains woefully incomplete. The Dodgers lineup will score more runs than the Giants, even as is. They did so without Manny last year for half of the season.

Granted there are a ton of IFS for both teams. I realize in order for the Dodgers' offense to succeed (even without Manny) Furcal must be healthy. But isn't that just the case with Johnson/Lowry as well? And what of Sanchez? Are we going to see 1st half Sanchez, or second half? Believe me I know because I had Sanchez on my fantasy team in May and June (big lift in pitching). However, even Clayton Kershaw put up better overall numbers than him last year, and will only get better VERY quickly. What of Molina? Can he continue to produce? And what about Sandoval? Where do the Giants put him, and will he continue to build on his success here in the majors already and post a +.800OPS? Or will have post a sub .800OPS?

There are a lot of ifs I could point out for the Dodgers as well as the Giants. But I like the Dodgers ifs, a lot more than the Giants. A lot has to fall in place for them to really get up there, whereas the Dodgers are one or two signings away from locking up this division for good in 2009.

Ned Colletti, get back from vacation and actually DO SOMETHING SIGNIFICANT!!!

"5 starting eras under "4"....can't recall the last time I say that...."the Braves maybe"....

Posted by: The dodgers suck"

Well not sure the exact number but I believe they had several years with 4 guys with an ERA under 4 and atleast a couple of seasons with 3 guys with an ERA under 3 as well.

But in '97 the Braves just missed having 4 guys with an ERA under 3, Smoltz had an ERA of 3.02 that year so 0.03 lower and they would of had 4 guys with an ERA under 3. With all 4 of those pitchers pitching in atleast 33 games with over 230 IP as well.

Than in '92 they actually had 6 starters with an ERA under 4...lol Yeah 2 of them of course didn't pitch a full season but all of them where in double digits in starts. 4 of them pitched full seasons with 31+ starts and all but one of those 4 had over 200 innings (193 for the one that didn't).

This was also without Maddux and there team ERA for starters that year was 2.95 with 26 CG and 14 Shutouts.

YES!!!

Nice move Sabean. This is the guy I was hoping they would sign (with CC we were just dreaming). This makes the Giants and the NL west alot more interesting. I believe this team will be vastly improved over last years team. Besides the four free agents we'll see a full year of Sandoval, Lewis(healthy), Romo, and Hinshaw. Some have projected the Giants moving up five spots in runs scored with the current lineup. One more righty with some pop would be nice.

I don't see a Manny signing for the Giant's. Maybe a Burell? He has played some 1B. There is a long way to go until April we'll see what shakes out.

that being said it was solid addition but they need MORE offense or you'll be seeing a lot of frustration on the part of Mr Johnson when he loses 3-2 games and can't seem to find win #300. Kind of like when Tom Glavine's wife was dragged to Mets game after Mets game when he was stuck on 299 and they kept showing her in the stands with this look on her face that this damn bullpen can't save a game for my husband!! I remember one game in Milwaukee where SNY kept panning up to her with this frustrated look on her face. That will be Randy's fate this year. He will get to 300 but it wont' be easy with this offense producing for him.

The giants need a hitter otherwise they will continue to lose games by scores of 2-1 and 3-2. Randy better tell Sabean they need a bat in the lineup. It is a great rotation,but they have to sign a hitter or trade for one. Knowing Brian Sabean he will make another horrifying trade like he did with the Twins a few years ago. That alone is scary enough.

Giants great move.
Don't trade anyone. Every team needs six starters by end of year. Now go get a closer (Fuentes)8M. Work on speed and defense. Sexton, G.Anderson or Giam. @1b. Cheap - No swish (I'm a Sox fan) he's bad.

I like Juan Pierre. I think people make too much of his lack of walks and power. The guy has a .300 lifetime batting avg and he also has a shot at being the only the 10th player in history to have 2,500 hits and 600 stolen bases.

Henderson
Brock
Cobb
Raines
Collins
Carey
Morgan
Wagner
Davis

7 of which are HOF's.

"The Giants even with Manny would be the 3rd best team in the NL East."

I know your team just won it all and congratulations...seriously. I realize you have bragging rights over everyone right now. But the fact remains that the Giants indeed do not play in the NL East. And you can't cherry pick your examples ("Dodgers rotation was tops in the NL last year and the Phils showed them what that got them in the NLCS"). If you can, then I can just point to what the Cardinals did a few years back...winning a weak division and getting hot at the right time. And why on earth would we trade Fred Lewis? The guy has only scratched the surface of his abilities. And he played hurt most of last year.

Rockford - why do we need to go out and overpay for a closer when we have a young and cheap one right now in Brian Wilson who just finished saving 41 games? High era or not, that full year of experience should do wonders for this upcoming season.

Manny if LF for 7 innings and bring in Lewis for defense ?
I thought Joe Crede would be a good pickup for the Giants for 3rd base...but his back injury problems maybe the deal breaker. Well they can sign him and if he goes down,the Giants have plenty of infield depth. Sandoval is going to be a good hitter for the club. Did someone mention Richie Sexton? LOL help me.
Might as well sign Adam Dunn at least he hits a lot of homers to go with his K's..

Giants won't be best team in the NL, period. Even if they do bring in Manny and Trevor Hoffman. Best team in the NL West, absolutely. Best team in the NL? No. But, being the best team in the NL West gets the Giants a playoff berth, where anything can happen, so that's perfectly fine with most Giants fans.

melonis,

yes but didn't the Dodgers come into the NLCS with the best pitching staff (arguably a better bullpen then the Giants would have in 2009) and still got smoked by the Phils 4 games to 1? Pitching is what wins, but you need to be able to score too and the Dodgers couldn't do that and neither likely would the Giants as presently constitued on offense.

To me the NL playoffs if rosters fill out as expected would be the Mets and Phils as division winner and wildcard (order to be determined) the Cubs and either the Giants or the Dodgers (whoever gets Manny).

It's a sad day to be a D-backs fan. The cheap guys in the front office couldn't manage to spend a few million more on Randy than they will now on some crappy free agent. Now 20 years from now when they talk about Randy they'll show him getting win 300 in a frikin Giants uniform instead of a Dbacks one where he accomplished everything else in his career.

phils,
I agree with you completely. The giants are about five position players from being the best team in the NL. I don't even entertain the idea of Manny coming here, either. That's ludicrous and will never happen. Same goes for Hoffman. My point is that the best regular season team rarely ends up winning it all. It's the team that was able to weather the storm all season and get really hot come september and october. A team like the Giants, who haven't had any recent success, have a goal of reaching the playoffs and then hoping for the best...and I think Giants fans are ok with that right now. They have a lot of excellent young talent in the pipeline and need to be responsible enough to keep it intact. Nevertheless, it is pretty cool to think that the big unit is going to be on the hill mere blocks away from me going for win #300 this year.

YanksFanSince78,

yes when we had them very happy but i predicted that Rowand's not worth what the Giants paid but understood they needed some offense. They bought high on him and while they got a very solid player and a good clubhouse guy for their younger kids to learn from he wasn't worth what they paid for him, but hey to the yanks its only $$$. Don't expect you need the clubhouse guy but he would absolutely be an upgrade over Melky or Gardner. That being said you don't need all stars at EVERY position do you? You want the rest of us to THINK we have a chance, no?

PhilsWSchamps- You are correct. The Giants have a shot at being the best team in the NL WEST, not the NL as a whole. And, we've seen teams get very, very lucky in the playoffs. The Phillies were the better team in the NLCS. Definitely. The Dodgers getting to the NLCS however was pure luck (who expected the Cubs to fall on their faces that badly in the NLDS?). Anything can happen in such a small sample size (2006 cardinals).

"I still think a Sanchez trade would be good. I really like the Sanchez to Colorado for 3rd base Adkins. "

Steal for the Rockies. Bad for Giants.

Atkins is a corner OF miscast as a 3B. Personally, I think the Rox should move him to that vacant LF spot, and do an OF of Atkins-Gonzalez-Hawpe with someone becoming trade bait when Fowler is ready.

And, you're giving away FOUR years of Sanchez for TWO years of Atkins. This is what we call a sell-low on Sanchez.

I have a feeling Yankee's and Giants try to match up on something. Giants seem to be making the effort to improve and wisely. Trying to read up right now with what they are doing... Although not the same division they are making Braves look a little silly. They're just standing there.

I see Matsui in SF, not the first time it's been discussed. Good for the fan base, they could use a consistent LF'r he does put up solid numbers, perhaps a little extra pop. His salary is neither cheap nor expensive. He could like it and stay on, if healthy (2 or 3 for $22mm, which isn't bad) I just did a little research on Vernon Wells $126mm for 7. That's 18mm per, a lot for him. Matsui's numbers have consistently been better over last 3 years, Wells is the better fielder however.

Anybody for a player trade on this? I have written him off here. We'll see, and I'm sure SF will not spend too much either.

Kennedy too could likely do well there.

Matsui, Kennedy, ??

for ??

Actually FyreKnight, the Dodgers are only thin on starting pitching. But we have a ton of in-house options that looked very good last year in their brief stints (Stults and McDonald). Our bullpen is fine and mostly intact. We lost Saito (who was injured for most of the year, and still can be re-signed by the Blue Crew), and Beimel, who is easily replaced by Scot Elbert who, despite a slow start, looked good against lefties, and has looked good. The bullpen would be an ideal fit for him for now, because of his shoulder.

As for the rest of our bullpen, we still have our 7-9 innings contingent intact: Wade, Kuo, Broxton. All very solid and all offer different pitching styles, which is GREAT in a bullpen.

But I do agree about our rotation. We have three guaranteed spots in the rotation (Billingsley, Kuroda, and Kershaw). All should put up pretty good numbers and will probably make up the core of our 1-3 slots. McDonald showed great stuff and poise on the mound during the NL West title run, and during the playoffs he was still nasty. I wouldn't be surprised to see him come into the rotation next year. He's been flying under the radar the last couple years, what with all the Billingsley, Kershaw, Broxton, Meloan and Jackson hype over the last couple years in our system. He, in my mind, slates as an ideal #5. That leaves a #4 slot. We need a pitcher primarily that can eat innings, and is preferably a veteran lefty - which is what the Big Unit was. Pettitte, if his asking price goes down, is the ideal candidate for this role. If we can net Pettitte, our rotation won't necessarily be better than San Fran, but it will be solid enough to beat them and their punchless offense.

Remember Colletti still has about $40 million to work with (that's taking into account about a $5-$7.25 million deference because of the economy) to sign a starter and Manny. Both of which are very doable. Even if we do not land Manny, our offense is still better than the Giants, as is.
---------------
To an earlier poster, I'll take Pierre's stolen bases and speed in left-field over Lewis' slight bit more power, and slightly higher OBP (13 points).

BTW, if the Dodgers do end up with Manny (which seems to be the case), they are one solid arm away from being a similar team that went to the NLCS last year. Lowe is the only pitcher that needs to be replaced, Penny hurt us more last year than helped. If the Dodgers make a run at Sheets and a Wolf or Pettite, they have the NL west all but locked up. They have the money to sign two of these three players (after Manny) and would have a starting rotation that could compete with any team in the NL. I don't know why the Dodgers wouldn't even consider Sheets he could be had at a real bargain and for a short period of time to let the rest of the young pitchers develop more in the bullpen. With all the money the Dodgers have left to spend this seems like a real possibility.

Yankee77-No thanks on Matsui. Not because he is no good but he does not fit in the Giants plans.

First, they have said over and over they are not looking for a 1 year rental.

Second, they have a morethan adequate LF in Fred Lewis, who has shown a lot of potential and is just entering his prime. This is going to be only his second season as a full time starter. He should supply nearly the same power in that ball park that Matsui would, given the difficulties hitting it out Matsui would have as a lefty. A move down in the order to 3rd or 5th will give him more opportunities to drive in runs and swing at the first pitch so his projected numbers should be much higher than what Bill James did (his was as a leadoff batter). There's a good breakdown on him at http://nuschlersnews.blogspot.com/2008/12/why-fred-lewis.html

Third- Matsui is an aging vet and can't play the infield, which is where the real need is. Although the Giants may not have the most threatening OF, unless they make a move, they are set with Winn (most consistent hitter), Rowand (contract not moving even if they wanted to), and Lewis

Fourth- Kennedy isn't really the kind of player the Giants are looking for. They are set in the Rotation with Lincecum, Johnson, Cain, Sanchez, and Zito. They may have Noah Lowry back this season. They have Kevin Pucetas who may be ready to make the leap this year in case of injuries. They have Jose Martinez, Tim Alderson, and Madison Bumgarner all about 1 season away.

About the only player the Yankee's may be shopping who really makes sense is Nick Swisher, as he can play 1B. The problemis,I don't think the Giants would be willing to give up any of the above named pitching to get him and I don't know if the Yankee's make the trade without it.

Melonis- I agree with you that Beltre would be a great fit AND he is not worth trading for any of the Giants pitching. Unfortunately he is going to test the FA market next season so he just doesn't make sense, until maybe next off season.

As for Crede, I'm not a fan of bringing him in because he just doesn't bring what the Giants need. His back injury is still lingering. They need offense and he just wasn't around long enough last year to show he can still hit. Defensively, he may be very solid, but there is no guarantee he stays healthy. If he makes multiple trips to the DL and the Giants continuously keep sliding Sandoval back over there, that doesn't help him, it's bad for chemistry in the infield, and it's no different than last year with Castillo/Aurulia/Sandoval.

If you look closely (http://nuschlersnews.blogspot.com/2008/12/third-base-solution.html) at Crede's numbers offensively, they aren't that good and once again he can't be counted on. Career he is worse than Aurulia and last season he was barely better.

I do agree that Ty Wigginton on a 3 year deal is too long, and a 2 year deal may be.

I also agree that a 1 year deal on a 3B is ideal because next off season there are a couple of quality 3B as FA AND the Giants should be in much better position to trade pitching for a top flight young 3B.

This is why I would rather see the Giants make a trade for Swisher at 1B, give Sandoval the job, maybe bring back Aurulia as backup.

Crede could be the backup but I just don't think they should count on him.

Right now the Giants focus should be on 1 more player, for either 1B or 3B, with their eye toward contending in 2010, not 2009. Keep everything of value now, and if a trade falls their way in the mean time, take it, otherwise play with what they have. I would say the realistic targets should be Swisher or Wiggington and wait everyone else out.

Melonis - Renteria is NOT a wild card as to whether he will improve our team. Even considering defense I pick Renteria alll day over the can't-hit-at-all vizquel.

Also, where does Schierholtz come into the mix. I think he could be a surprise canidate at first base considering the outfield seems full, and he deserves a starting spot.

The real question is: Do we think that Lewis has more potential for 09 or one of the many first base options (Ishikawa/schierholtz/bowker/phelps)

Answering that question ^ matters a lot in determining who we should look at acquiring this offseason.

Leland11- I think the answer is a definite Yes to the Fred Lewis question. He should be healthy come spring and more motivated than ever after last season.

Bill James projections seem to be off to me and they don't take into account a move down the order. Lewis has always been considered more suited as a #3 or #5 hitter. Last season he was forced to change his approach as a leadoff hitter and took alot of first pitch fastballs that he normally would swing at. His K's were up a bit partially because of this but he did learn how to take a walk. I think a move down will allow him the opportunity to hit those pitches as well as see more fastballs since he should have many more runners on in front of him with either Winn/Renteria or Sadoval/Molina hitting in front of him and not the #8 hitter and the pitcher.

There is a breakdown of what we should expect from him at: http://nuschlersnews.blogspot.com/2008/12/why-fred-lewis.html

I think Cabera could hold it down for a year. I like him for the Yanks starting CF but I don't think he's going to get a real chance next year.

When I say "will most likely resign" I am referring to Saito not Lowe, because Lowe doesn't want to return and the Dodgers don't want him. Which is really sad because I really like him and feel that he his one of the most consistent pitchers in baseball.

Cutmeibleedblue,

I couldn't agree more. People act as if losing Penny and Maddux was a HUGE loss; and that the Dodgers can't possibly replace the innings of Lowe; and that losing Saito means our bullpen is finished. Last time I recalled, Saito spent a lot of time injured, and Broxton filled in very nicely as a closer. Kuo was brilliant in set-up (and could close), and Wade was a great bridge/set-up righty. We're fine in our bullpen.

I think the Dodgers should pursue Pettitte above other pitchers right now. He would fill the hole of an innings eater, and is familiar with Joe Torre. I'd rather him over Sheets or Wolf, both oh whose health are uncertain and a major concern.

Once we sign Pettitte (if we can), and land Manny (which we SHOULD), then we can explore options of signing a pitcher like Randy Wolf to an incentive laden one-year deal similar to that of Randy Johnson. Wolf was great for us when he was healthy two years ago, and if he can perform, I'd love to have him back as a #4 or #5 starter.

Also in 2) in my last post:

"If you seriously think the Dodgers are going to go the rest of the off-season without landing a starter or two, you are crazy. And if they do, Ned Colletti, and McCourt will have hell to pay."

"I think the Dodgers should pursue Pettitte above other pitchers right now. He would fill the hole of an innings eater, and is familiar with Joe Torre. I'd rather him over Sheets or Wolf, both oh whose health are uncertain and a major concern.

Once we sign Pettitte (if we can), and land Manny (which we SHOULD), then we can explore options of signing a pitcher like Randy Wolf to an incentive laden one-year deal similar to that of Randy Johnson. Wolf was great for us when he was healthy two years ago, and if he can perform, I'd love to have him back as a #4 or #5 starter."

Posted by: MrBlake14 | December 27, 2008 at 06:42 PM

That makes alot of sense to me too. I keep pushing Sheets because I think that we should sign him to a short term deal along with Pettite (who I agree would be a great addition as a fourth starter). We have the money and Sheets upside is huge, even last year which ended short with an injury he showed that he is a true ace. I think that if he returns to form him and Bills would be one of the best one two punches in the NL (even better than Webb/Haren). Bills is going to have a great year as long as his leg heals on schedule and he has no major set backs. I'm thinking somewhere between 16-18 wins and an ERA in the very low 3's. With a healthy sheets pitching behind him, who knows what could happen. Now that I think about it signing Sheets and Pettite (along with Manny) would be unbelievable and would make the Dodgers even better than last year.

I love that the 5th best pitcher(zito) and possibly 6th (if lowry is healthy) makes more money than the rest of the entire amazing rotation put together!

as far as the giants signing manny... I can just hear Sabe's now "well since we just got rid of one narcissistic ego-maniac I've decided to bring in another one, who's even more unpredictable and will dog it when he doesn't feel appreciated."

Signing two starters would let Torre limit the kids' innings and would act as a safeguard for injuries. Also, McDonald and Elbert can stay in the bullpen which should help them adjust to the majors and protect their confidence, if one catches fire I know that Torre would place him in the rotation. I feel that its a win win. Besides, Pettite would only get a one year contract and sheets would probably have to accept a two year incentive laden contract. I don't see much risk, only potential.

Mrblake,

Have you thought about what our rotation will look like if Kershaw, McDonald, and Elbert all turn out to be as good as the scouts say?

We would have four of the best young pitchers in baseball. Just pointing that out and keeping my fingers crossed!

Cutmeibleedblue,

I have kept a watchful eye on McDonald for the past three years, and I am STOKED on him. Everyone was bustling about Kershaw and his curve, Billingsley and his bull-dog approach, and Elbert and his hard slider/fastball combo, but I've been watching him. He can definitely turn into a reallllllllly solid starter. He's got that low-mid 90's fastball he can sink, that oh-so-wonderful change-up everyone whiffs through, and a great 12-6 curveball similar to Kershaws'.

Man, if they did live up to their potential scouts tab them for, and stay healthy, they could put up monster numbers. Although I do agree that I'd rather have a couple veterans fill in the rotation spots McDonald and Elbert would/could fill for this year, and allow them to adjust to major league hitting in the bullpen. With those two in the pen, I'd be saying, "Psh...Beimel and Park who?"

I agree with you in regard to McDonald. The one thing that I feel may be his biggest attribute that you didn't mention (though I'm sure you noticed in the playoff run this year) is his confidence and what I call "swagger". He is not afraid to go all out and has the confidence to throw a strike and challenge even the best hitters. I think that this is Kershaw's biggest weakness right now (but c'on the guy's only 21). He seemed to question his stuff and not trust it completely. This is the only barrier he needs to overcome to be the ace he can be. Also, he needs to zero in his control, he has that nasty curve ("public enemy #1" as I believe Vin rightfully referred to it as) that umps don't know what to do with yet. Time will tell but for 2009 I agree that McDonald and Elbert should be in the pen and we should use some of that extra money to get two quality veterans to eat innings and mentor.

Dude, I loved McDonald's "swagger". Did you see how he froze Philly hitters with his curve, and got them to whiff through his change-up? Plus he is 6'5", 195lbs...THAT ladies and gentleman, is a 220IP starter make-up. Plus, he's spent 5 seasons in the minors grooming himself for the majors.

His career minor league ERA isn't flashy (3.41), but it has dropped as he has progressed (it was 3.97, 3.95 in A and A+ ball). In AA, combined, his lines there were this:
12-5 in 26 starts, 171.1IP, about 2.50ish ERA, about 1.15WHIP, over 9K/9 innings, and around 3BB/9 innings. That's REALLY good looking. When a pitcher has over a 3:1 K/BB ratio, and gives up less than a hit an inning, THAT'S fantastic.

It's funny to listen to you dodgers fan ejaculate over your players...on a more serious note I think your best bet is signing Pettite for the rotation. IMO you have enough young talented hitters (loney/martin/kemp/either) and with the veteran help of furcal and blake that you really don't need manny to be successful.

As a Giants fan, I am jealous of some of your young hitters, but I think the West is anyones for the taking at this point - whoever signs Manny gets the clear advantage though...

BTW Leland11,

If we don't need manny than why is it that "whoever signs Manny gets the clear advantage though." you seem to be unable to make up your mind and convey a clear point.

Mr Blake & CutMe

If the Dodgers resign Manny there's no way he put's up a 219 OPS+ for the whole season!!! That's what he hit in order for the Dodger to go 6 games above .500 the last 2 months of the season. He'll come down to about 140-150 range. During that same 2 months the Giants were 1 game over .500 by playing the young guys Sandoval, Romo, and Hinshaw.

If the Dodgers get Sheets, Pettite, and Manny I think they will be better than last year. Maybe 86 wins instead of 84. That's alot of If.

Posted by: WillieMaysField | December 27, 2008 at 11:56 PM

Willie,

No one expects manny to put up the numbers that he put up on the dodgers last year in 2009. We all know that that was just insane and an attempt to get as much money as possible. I'm realistic. Nonetheless, he is a great hitter and would drive in runs and hit for a good average. Also, you need to understand that the vast majority of the Dodgers roster was on the DL last year including: Penny, Furcal, Saito, Nomar, Kent, Pierre, etc. 2008 was one of the most injury ridden years for the Dodgers. Also, they clinched with quite a few games left and rested all of their veterans and let the kids play and tryout for 2009. Torre is very "October-minded" and knows how to prepare for the playoffs. Also, the league had never seen the Giant rookies that you listed, when they play in the bigs for the entire season it is only reasonable for the pitchers in the NL to identify weaknesses and adjust, the same thing happened to Loney and Kemp last year. And to only grant the dodgers two more wins with a healthy Furcal, Manny all year, Sheets and Pettite (all of which I think is not out of reason by any means considering the amount of money the Dodgers still have left to spend) is completely ignorant and goes against logic. If all of those players are signed the Dodgers get at least 90 wins easy. You have to keep in mind that the rest of the NL west has gotten worse if anything (the Rockies dealt Holliday, the Padres let Hoffman go and traded Greene, etc.). If anything the Dodgers have much more upside in regard to 2009 than the Giants.

As of now I think the Dodgers and the Giants are about even, yes, I truly believe, flame me all you want, that the dodgers and the giants will be competitive with each other this year UNLESS one team signs manny, then whatever team get him, i predict will win 2/3 of the head-to-head matchups

Well I wouldn't say the Dodgers bullpen blows away the Giants, as I would expect Wilson to improve a little, but I do agree that you can't really compare the two teams at this point.

Firstly, it's still late December, and a lot of off-season is left for things to happen.

Secondly, the Giants are playing more towards a rebuilding season, and have no true tip top prospects from their system (tip top by the LEAGUE standard, not individual systems) aside from Sandoval and MAYBE another position player, will have an impact on the club. The Giants have a bunch of "average" prospects. What, are Ishikawa, Velez, Burris, Lewis, Bowker and Schierholz all of a sudden top 50 prospects? Last time I checked, most of those guys had decent, but not stand-out minor league careers.

You also have to remember that the Giants rotation, despite the fact it looks superb on paper, has A LOT of ifs. Lincecum is a surefire ace. Cain...is he going to be great, or just average like he has somewhat been the last couple years (4.15, 3.65, 3.76 ERA's - 1.28, 1.26, 1.36 WHIPS over the last 3 years)? Zito...is he honestly going to contribute or will he continue to waste space in the rotation and payroll? Sanchez...as I said before, will it be pre-All Star Sanchez, or post-All Star Sanchez - and can he get his horrendous WHIP down? Johnson...can he stay healthy? He's 46, and not getting any younger. Lowry, will he rebound from injury and perform like he was?

There are a lot of ifs on both sides, but as I've said before, I'd rather be in the Dodgers' position than the Giants.

Rotation: Giants
Bullpen: Dodgers
Lineup: Dodgers
Depth: Dodgers
Bench: Dodgers
Coaching: Dodgers (you can't beat Torre and Donny Baseball I'm sorry)

The only advantage the Giants truly have over the Dodgers is their rotation as is. But their overall depth is poor. They may have good prospects, as you guys mentioned earlier, but you also stated that most of them aren't even above high A ball. That isn't exactly depth. Your offense is truly anemic, and as I said, we STILL had a better offense than the Giants without Manny, without Furcal, without Jones, without an true thirdbaseman, no true secondbaseman with Kent injured, and having off-seasons from Loney and Martin. And we STILL had the better offense. As far as I am concerned, Renteria is the only change, and Sandoval, though great looking batter, will have a rude awakening when he realizes pitchers wont test him with fastballs anymore.

Guys

Last year I picked the Dodger to win the West. Torre to me was a great move and I knew he would right the ship. There is a ton of nice young talent in Dodger blue. That being said there is big turnover of veterans next year and I think you over value your team (most fans do).

I hope Johnson wins #300 against the Dodgers!!

Again, agreeing with Cutmeibleedblue. The veterans we lost are as follows: Penny, Kent, Saito, Beimel, Lowe, and Park.

1) Penny hurt more than helped and didn't contribute at all to our success.
2) Kent was the same case in that he was injured and barely contributed to any success we had over the season.
3) Saito was injured a lot as well. He is great, but Broxton is no downgrade, and Kuo showed how good he is as a set-up pitcher. Plus there is a good chance the Dodgers could re-sign Sammy Saito.
4) Beimel. Good pitcher, but replaceable. We have Kuo, Elbert and Stults IN HOUSE. Those lefties are more than enough to make up for the loss of Beimel.
5) Lowe. What we really lost with Lowe is a pitcher with a post-season resume, and an innings eater reputation. Easily replaced by signing either Pettitte or Garland (I'd definitely prefer the former though).
6) Park was great for us, but his long relief/spot starter role could easily be handed to Stults or McDonald. Both of whom showed they are ready for the majors regularly. I wish we could have kept Park, but you can't always get what you wish for.
7) Maddux. Again, The Professor only contributed 40 innings to the team (at an ERA north of 5.00). I wouldn't say losing him is a blow to our team.

Remember, through all this we also had a black-hole at shortstop with Furcal injured (who is healthy now), under-performing season from Loney and Martin, and a rotation trying to find itself. And we STILL won the NL West. Remember also the Dodgers still have a lot of money ($40-$45 million) to work with to spend this off-season. If you think we're going to go this off-season with a major signing (at least either Manny or Pettitte) you are pretty obtuse. And if we do, it will be the devil's handiwork, and Ned Colletti/Frank McCourt will be martyred for their incompetence.

"It must be so sad to be a fan of a team that has one of the worst farm systems in baseball..... your team will never have a core of young players with a tenth of the talent that the young guns on the Dodgers have."

Wow, that's a big steamy one there. I guess if you leave out the likes of Villalona, Bumgarner, Alderson, Pucetas, Noonan, Matos, Posey, Valdez and Gillaspie, you may come clse to having a point."

I quoted myself because I wanted to point out that I was talking about the quality of the Giants' "young core". The difference is that those players are still prospects and the Dodgers' young guns are actual big leaguers who are already contributing to the team. The giants have been known for quite some time as an aging team that when good, where only built to win now and ask questions later. You mention that Martin, Either, and Loney need to continue to develop because we don't have anyone else in the pipeline. You also forgot Kemp who is already great defensively and beginning to get more patient at the plate and will be an offensive force (30/30 kind of guy and a five tool player). Lambo is in the wings and so is DeJesus Jr. Also, Martin is already one of the best 5 catchers in the bigs and Either's numbers last year have to rank him in the top 5 outfielders (I am positive he put up better numbers than any Giant outfielder) and all Loney did was hit for .300 avg. while playing a near flawless first base. All in all the dodgers farm system is strapped and we have a formidable young core that will continue to develop and be great for years to come. The Giants have a handful of players that may or may not contribute to the big league team.