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Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle has the latest on the A's.
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Is "Moneyball" taking a backseat??
Posted by: 55saveslives | January 07, 2009 at 01:35 PM
If Abreu's price drops, he is the perfect player for Oakland...OBP, Speed...some pop.
Posted by: B3NG4L | January 07, 2009 at 01:36 PM
Where would Abreu play for OAK? Aren't they already overloaded with OF like Holliday, Travis Buck, and Cust?
Posted by: tolo316 | January 07, 2009 at 01:39 PM
"Where would Abreu play for OAK? Aren't they already overloaded with OF like Holliday, Travis Buck, and Cust?"
i assume
holliday lf
abreu rf
giambi 1b
cust dh
buck/sweeney switch off
bye bye barton...you're only 23 but the emergence of doolittle/carter behind has made you expendable
i wouldnt be surprised if beane wants his holy grail milledge and/or takes a 1 yr risk on nick johnson if nats like barton + something else
Posted by: arly2380 | January 07, 2009 at 01:43 PM
"Is "Moneyball" taking a backseat??"
Why would you say that? From what I've seen, Abreu and Giambi are two of the most patient hitters in baseball. I don't know the official stats, but I know both take a lot of pitches and walk a lot.
"Where would Abreu play for OAK? Aren't they already overloaded with OF like Holliday, Travis Buck, and Cust?"
If they trade Barton, that frees up more time at 1B for Giambi (not sure if that's a good thing or not), and more time for Cust to DH and Abreu can play the outfield.
Posted by: cmac1973 | January 07, 2009 at 01:43 PM
if bobby or cabrera (orlando of course needs a sizable rebound) sign with the A's, they can actually contend this year, its very very possible. on paper of course
Posted by: 04Forever | January 07, 2009 at 01:45 PM
arley beat me to it but that would be the answer. don't think they really want cust in the of.
Posted by: kinsler5 | January 07, 2009 at 01:46 PM
Abreu and to a lesser degree O-Cab would make them pretty doggoned respectable.
Posted by: abcrazy4dodgers | January 07, 2009 at 01:47 PM
Dillon DFA'd. One more reason to hate Giambi:
You will never find a classier act than Joseph William Dillon. Busted his hump to get back to baseball after a good Texas Tech career and injuries - posted 1.000+ OPS numbers but ultimately got labeled as a four-A ballplayer.
Maybe he was, but he played it the right way. If he had juiced like Giambi who knows what kind of MLB career he'd have had? I hope he catches on with somebody.
Posted by: Mattyc44 | January 07, 2009 at 01:50 PM
"Moneyball" isn't about patient hitters as much as finding the undervalued players on the market. Abreu is stuck in the middle of the glut of LF/DH types with Giambi, making them relative bargains.
Posted by: drchstrpunk | January 07, 2009 at 01:52 PM
dillon is a local bay area guy, if he clears waivers he'll be back with A's
Posted by: arly2380 | January 07, 2009 at 01:55 PM
Barton for Milledge DO IT!!!!
Posted by: PL | January 07, 2009 at 02:02 PM
I read moneyball, and its also about making smart draft picks for a cheaper price, and developing them. What has the Oakland farm system produced lately? Swisher, Daric Barton, Dan Johnson, Bobby Crosby, Joe Blanton, and Jeremy Brown are just some of the "smart" picks that have failed.
Posted by: gosox33 | January 07, 2009 at 02:03 PM
It seems that in recent years the "Moneyball" method hasn't worked out too well. When you have guys like Crosby, Ellis and Chavez who are below the league average in OBP they don't fit that paradigm.
I still say that a team needs to be able to hit, BB don't usually bring in many runs but they do put pressure on the pitcher. Right now it is projected that the only A's players that will hit above the league avg are Suzuki, Holliday, and Sweeny.
Abreu does fit well into the whole moneyball thing and hits for avg. Where would he play though? Holliday is the LF, I was under the impression that Cust who played mostly LF last year would play RF. Can Cust play CF? He didn't at all last year. Abreu's natural position is RF, I doubt he can play CF. This would also knock Sweeny out of the mix.
Posted by: Jeff Levy | January 07, 2009 at 02:07 PM
Barton is an awesome fit for the Orioles.
They need a 1B, preferably young considering they have nothing but Snyder in their system, and Barton would be a nice future piece for them.
I'm not sure who the A's would target, but maybe something like this could work:
Daric Barton for Radhames Liz and Billy Rowell
Orioles get Barton, A's get a potential long term 3B and a young pitcher.
Posted by: scribbletone | January 07, 2009 at 02:12 PM
Arly-
Didn't see your comment before I posted, but that makes sense. I'm not sure if its wise that Giambi exclusively plays 1B with his below average defense.
Posted by: Jeff Levy | January 07, 2009 at 02:13 PM
gosox-
Swisher and Blanton are far from failed draft picks. Those were total successes.
And then we can look at the guys they landed by trading those two: Gio Gonzalez, Ryan Sweeney, Fautino De Los Santos, Adrian Cardenas, Josh Outman, Evan Spencer
I'd call that a success.
Also, the A's got Barton from STL in the Mulder trade, they didn't draft him.
Posted by: scribbletone | January 07, 2009 at 02:17 PM
I agree with the post above. I think you need a good mix of obp guys, along with guys that are 'pure' hitters. The holliday trade confuses me. The A's traded Dan Haren and Swisher for guys like Carlos Gonzalez and Ryan Sweeney, but within one year trade them for a one year rental player. I dont understand it.
Posted by: gosox33 | January 07, 2009 at 02:18 PM
To scribbletone-
I know the A's didnt draft Barton, but they picked him up when he was a low minors prospect, so I consider that developing him under their own system. If you consider Nick Swisher a success, why is he on his third team (maybe a fourth very soon) in approximately a year? And I still hate the A's for grabbing De Los Santos and Gonzalez from the Sox.
Posted by: gosox33 | January 07, 2009 at 02:20 PM
Moneyball is about finding value in undervalued players.
At the time, OBP and sluggging % were undervalued. As other teams have started to change their thinking and ways of evaluating talent, the A's have had to adjust and try to find some other aspects of the game that are being undervalued.
Posted by: Peter Gammons | January 07, 2009 at 02:24 PM
Moneyball is about finding out what undervalued and exploiting it.
Right now decent players such as Giambi are undervalued, so they signed him, and they will continue to sign low priced players who are worth more than their salary.
Moneyball will never die.
Posted by: PL | January 07, 2009 at 02:27 PM
Great move that will bring temporary success at a great price, and give Beane time to make some swaps with his other players. As usual the worst case scenario for the As is that they'll have a midseason fire sale. I dont know about your team, but the As are one of the few teams that can appreciate a restocking/reworking of system talent.
Also, wasn't the point of moneyball that a team can be successful in many ways given that the pieces are played correctly...? If so then my guess is we dont see "the grand plan"
Posted by: alpha | January 07, 2009 at 02:30 PM
"Dillon DFA'd. One more reason to hate Giambi:
You will never find a classier act than Joseph William Dillon. Busted his hump to get back to baseball after a good Texas Tech career and injuries - posted 1.000+ OPS numbers but ultimately got labeled as a four-A ballplayer.
Maybe he was, but he played it the right way. If he had juiced like Giambi who knows what kind of MLB career he'd have had? I hope he catches on with somebody."
Agreed. We should all hate Jason Giambi because he is an infinitely better baseball player then Joe Dillon. When did people as a whole become so damn clueless?
Posted by: nrmax88 | January 07, 2009 at 02:38 PM
Who cares how Swish is doing now?
Beane and the A's maximized the he'll out of his value.
Not many mid-first round picks go nearly as well.
And in the Holliday trade, they may have given up Gonzalez, but they also managed to get good value out of Huston Street, and most peripherals stats indicate that Greg Smith isn't nearly as good as his numbers.
Moving from a pitchers park to a hitters park will reveal that Smith is nothing more than a decent 4/5.
That was a very solid deal by Oakland.
Posted by: scribbletone | January 07, 2009 at 02:40 PM
"Can Cust play CF?"
That is even funnier then the guy who asked if Nick Swisher could play 3B the other day. Not laughing at you Jeff, just laughing at the idea of Cust trying to patrol that huge CF.
Posted by: nrmax88 | January 07, 2009 at 02:40 PM
Someone needs to tell the nationals that a team can only play 4 guys in the field at the OF & 1B positions at a time. yikes
Posted by: whitesoxfan424 | January 07, 2009 at 02:49 PM
to scribbletone
obviously your idea of a "total success" for a baseball player differs from mine. I dont think billy beane is calling nick swisher and joe blanton "total successes."
Posted by: gosox33 | January 07, 2009 at 02:51 PM
When they acquired gonzalez he was supposed to be the 5 tool, center fielder of the future. Gone in less than a year for a 1 year rental player?
Posted by: gosox33 | January 07, 2009 at 02:53 PM
cust would be better at SS
Posted by: arly2380 | January 07, 2009 at 02:55 PM
they should try cust as a left handed setup man as well
Posted by: gosox33 | January 07, 2009 at 02:56 PM
I promise you Beane would call those successes.
Have you ever gone through the list of first round picks?
Managing to get a key contributor is in itselfna success, because the draft is such a crapshoot.
You need to think of this solely in terms of value, and based on that Beane did great.
He got a couple solid MLB years from each of them, then traded them for a very nice haul of prospects.
As for Gonzalez, I don't quite get moving him either, but the A's are trying to win next year and they still have three solid young OF in Buck, Sweeney and Cunningham, even if none has the potential of Gonzalez.
Posted by: scribbletone | January 07, 2009 at 03:03 PM
"Can Cust play CF?"
Cust can't play LF.
Re: Moneyball.
A lot of people are missing the point IMO. The strategy is not nearly as much about OBP as it is about snatching up what the market is undervaluing at the time. The market fluctuates. When the book was written, it was all about BA and HRs, so OBP was undervalued. In recent years, defense had been undervalued, which enabled Beane to sign Ellis to that WAY below market extension. Then, in this current FA market, the DH types are undervalued, hence the Giambi and Burrell contracts. So, snatch 'em up.
Posted by: melonis rex | January 07, 2009 at 03:05 PM
"As for Gonzalez, I don't quite get moving him either, but the A's are trying to win next year and they still have three solid young OF in Buck, Sweeney and Cunningham, even if none has the potential of Gonzalez."
I think what made Gonzalez tradeable over the others was that while he has the highest ceiling, out of the 4, he's the least likely to reach it. Gonzalez has been more about tools than results in the minors (and in the majors last season). The trade could easily have been completed with Cunningham IMO.
Posted by: melonis rex | January 07, 2009 at 03:11 PM
Although still young, Gonzalez showed he's not the hitter they thought he'd be. Five tools? Maybe 3. I think Colorado's perfect for him. He's a total gap hitter but with serious holes in his swing. I'd loved watching him in the OF, though, and I can't see him not winning a gold glove at some point.
Posted by: bryan | January 07, 2009 at 03:12 PM
"Can Cust play CF?"
Cust can't play LF.
Ha, ha, ha. His batting gloves are even a defensive liability.
Posted by: 1quik6 | January 07, 2009 at 03:13 PM
If I was a GM, I wouldn't be measuring total success as a 'couple solid MLB years', along with a return of some unproven prospects. I would measure it by division and world championships. And correct me if I'm wrong, Beane's approach hasn't brought much in return lately in terms of W's. He's brought in a ton of prospects in the last 10 years, but hasn't produced consistent, successful seasons.
Posted by: gosox33 | January 07, 2009 at 03:14 PM
You must be a fan of the Hawk, gosox, because you are clueless.
Posted by: 1quik6 | January 07, 2009 at 03:18 PM
Were not talking about the success of the team as a whole though.
This argument was solely about the success of those draft picks.
Obviously championships are the goal, and those picks have definitely helped them get closer than many other draft picks.
Posted by: scribbletone | January 07, 2009 at 03:18 PM
if I remember correctly, Beane had mentioned that defense was undervalued a year or two back, and they were looking at that, now that OBP is a mainstream stat. which doesn't quite balance out with all the 1B/DH types on their team, but I believe I remember that quote fairly correctly. His protege in Toronto seems to have taken that to heart, however. Also - remember when he had an unhealthy attachment to Terrence Long? Sometimes Beane, like God, works in mysterious ways!
Posted by: kswissreject | January 07, 2009 at 03:23 PM
"I would measure it by division and world championships. And correct me if I'm wrong, Beane's approach hasn't brought much in return lately in terms of W's."
The A's haven't won any rings, but they've been very, VERY respectable in all years but two. How many teams have won 90+ games 6 times from 2000-2008, or 85+ games 7 times. And have 4 division titles and 5 playoff appearances in 9 seasons.
Yes, the A's have had two straight losing seasons.
Division titles in 2000, 2002, 2003, and 2006
Wildcard in 2001
Missed playoffs by ONE game in 2004; still went 91-71.
2005: 88-74. Exact record that the White Sox and Twins had before going into the tiebreaker.
Posted by: melonis rex | January 07, 2009 at 03:24 PM
if they got o-cab, though, that infield defense would be pretty awesome, at least, if Chavez is healthy, and also LF with Holliday.
Posted by: kswissreject | January 07, 2009 at 03:25 PM
IMO only trade Barton if a GOOD SS/3B prospect is in the deal.
Posted by: melonis rex | January 07, 2009 at 03:26 PM
Oh, I get it...
You're still ticked that the Sox essentially traded Ryan Sweeney, Gio Gonzalez, and Fautino De Los Santos for Jeff Marquez, Wilson Betemit, and Jhonny Nunez (and one really crappy year of Nick Swisher.
So you take out your frustration on the evil genius that fleeced Kenny Williams... sore loser.
Posted by: 1quik6 | January 07, 2009 at 03:27 PM
Melonis didn't point out that the two losing years were ravaged by record setting DL stints and rebuilding.
Posted by: 1quik6 | January 07, 2009 at 03:30 PM
I wasn't measuring the A's against the Sox, or Billy Beane against Kenny Williams. As a matter of fact, I like some of the moves Beane has made. The Sox tried to emulate him with their high OBP approach last year with guys like Swisher, but it did't exactly work out. The only time I was satisfied with my White Sox was after they won the world series in 2005. And in regards to blaming two years of losing seasons on injuries, get over it, because injuries are part of the game that every team deals with.
Posted by: gosox33 | January 07, 2009 at 03:44 PM
I didn't hear the Sox blaming injuries to Carlos Quentin and Joe Crede when they trailed the Twins by 1 1/2 with 3 games to go this past season.
Posted by: gosox33 | January 07, 2009 at 03:46 PM
"Melonis didn't point out that the two losing years were ravaged by record setting DL stints and rebuilding."
I didn't want to start a whole another Pandora's Box type argument over injuries.
Posted by: melonis rex | January 07, 2009 at 03:49 PM
Anyone who uses injuries as an excuse is a loser; injuries are a part of the game, get over it. The Sox were not blaming injuries to Carlos Quentin and Joe Crede when they were 1 1/2 games back with 3 to play against the twins last season.
Posted by: gosox33 | January 07, 2009 at 03:52 PM
Looks like I just posted the same comment twice, sorry. 1quik6 might get real upset.
Posted by: gosox33 | January 07, 2009 at 03:53 PM
crede was never that good
quentin injury was a stupid move on his part
i think if a team breaks their own DL use record 2 yrs in a row...there's issues there and not the results that was expected
Posted by: arly2380 | January 07, 2009 at 03:57 PM
Crede isn't great, but the guy had 17 hr thru 350 AB's last year, and anytime a team has to replace crede with juan uribe as the full time 3B means trouble.
Posted by: gosox33 | January 07, 2009 at 04:00 PM
Similar to replacing Eric Chavez with Jack Hannahan/Donnie Murphy.
Posted by: 1quik6 | January 07, 2009 at 04:06 PM
"i think if a team breaks their own DL use record 2 yrs in a row...there's issues there and not the results that was expected"
Seriously.... I wish Beane would have traded Larry Davis about three years ago.
Posted by: 1quik6 | January 07, 2009 at 04:08 PM
"The only time I was satisfied with my White Sox was after they won the world series in 2005."
Here lies the problem with Chicago fans in general. Remind me why you care about this thread.
Posted by: 1quik6 | January 07, 2009 at 04:10 PM
whats the problem? only being satisfied if you're team wins world championships (which isn't too often)?
I thought this thread was interesting, thats why I cared enough to post my thoughts on it.
Posted by: gosox33 | January 07, 2009 at 04:27 PM
Yeah I really wish my team would have all 12 pitchers have a career year in the same year, might get that championship if that happens.
Wait a minute....who even bought the ChiSox into this thread? Oh guy who is bummed that KW got fleeced by Beane, nevermind.
Posted by: PL | January 07, 2009 at 05:09 PM
I like the A's a lot..
But a good staff is going to punch holes up and down the lineup
Giambi
Buck
Holliday
Cust
Crosby
are strike out prone..
and Buck has a chance too get better but the others will most likely only K more..
Posted by: 661dodgerblue | January 07, 2009 at 05:41 PM