O's Sign Brian Roberts To Extension

I agree with scibbletone. This isn't a good deal for the O's. They should trade him and get some younger guys that can help them content in a few years.

I hate to be so damn agreeable, but I concur with the two guys above. Even if they could contend by the third year of his deal, let's say (tho, in that division, who knows if they'll EVER be able to contend?), will Roberts still be a solid leadoff player? Will his legs hold up? He was never blindingly fast; he steals bases on guile more than anything, so by 35 or 36 he migh be an average player at best.

he is the fourth ranked player for his position this year, last year he was 4th. i mean, its a good time for him to cash in and the team can use a face to sell

im looking forward to the orioles season, i think they are in a very unique position to shock some people with this younger team. if the older players perform like they did last year with the youngsters pitching in, and that nut-house of pitching they REALLY have to narrow down, this year in the AL East could be Armageddon

4 years? Good enough. O's have no one in the minors to fill his spot at 2B or lead off. And he has been pretty durable throughout his career.

this signing is a good idea regardless of whether or not the orioles make the playoffs during this new contract.

a.) leadoff hitters do not grown on trees
b.) the orioles have no viable 2B alternative nor do they have a potential replacement in the minors
c.) he's a fan favorite and he does a lot of great work with the community
d.) his trade value has diminished too much over the winter (orlando hudson still doesn't have a job for crying out loud)
e.) he is an excellent defensive 2B, with good speed and is in the top of 5 of leadoff hitters
f.) it's not like the orioles have a huge list of free agents lining up to take their $ (see teixiera, konerko, pudge, burnitz, etc.)
g.) he has been very durable and has no injury history (he's played in a minimum of 138 games for 5 straight seasons)
h.) although it's not tangible, there is a return on showing loyalty to your players that deserve it

The O's do have L.J. Hoes playing second in the minors..

Yeah, he's probably two years away, but the Orioles do have ONE solid middle infield prospect.

I would try trading him for a young shortstop, but as others have noted, he's value isn't nearly what it was a year ago.

What about Roberts to the Rockies for Chris Nelson and a decent pitching prospect?

Call me crazy, but I think the Orioles can contend next year, and win 85 this year if the pitching comes along. They've got perhaps more young talent close to the major league level than anyone outside of Tampa (Pie, Jones, Markakis, Tillman, Ray, Wieters, etc. etc.) and I think they could make a Tampa-esque jump if they can get the 'pen sorted out and get some of the young pitching to come around, just as Tampa did a year ago.

If it's at 10M, and not a Michael Young sized deal, I don't think this is a bad deal. I would imagine he'll still sustain trade value into the second or third year of the deal if plans unravel and they want to go full blown youth movement.

"who ever thought paying Melvin Mora $9 million a season was a good idea?"- i hope this is not what we'll be saying about Roberts in 2-3 years times.

"I think they could make a Tampa-esque jump if they can get the 'pen sorted out and get some of the young pitching to come around, just as Tampa did a year ago."

Honestly, I think that's too big of an IF.

The Orioles only have one established quality MLB pitcher in their rotation this year in Guthrie.

The Rays already had Kazmir and Shields established, and Garza and Jackson had already gotten major playing time at the MLB level as well going into last season.

I could see Baltimore making the jump with Matusz, Tillman, Arrieta and Erbe are ready, but that's not until 2010 at the earliest.

It'd take some miracles (Having guys like Hill and Liz figure it out) for this team to get decent pitching this year.

As long as the deal is for about 8M per, this is good for the O's.

Robert's is a savvy player who's been durable throughout his career. You'll get another 2 top-quality seasons out of him and he'll probably start to regress in the third year of the deal.

At the deadline in the third year, he can probably be unloaded to a team in need of some middle infield help.

Towards the end of the deal, he'll move off the leadoff spot and end up hitting second , a good spot in the order for a switch-hitter that handles the bat well.

He's an above-average defender at second now, so assuming he doesn't have any real debilitating injuries, he'll probably remain at least average for the duration of the deal.

Same goes for his speed. He won't be a big time threat to steal every time he gets on first as he is now in a few years, but he'll still have average to slightly above average speed, enough to take a bag on occasion.

Good deal for the O's. Locking up core talent at a good price, while the market is down, while not blocking any top organizational prospects is always a good idea.

(Unless of course this deal is for 10-12M, than it's pretty awful.)

This may force Cub fans to the reality the Roberts will not be playing for them.

He has virtually no trade value, especially with Hudson still out there. He barely had any trade value last year - the Cubs offer was middling at best.

My opinion on this will depend on the contract details. If this deal starts in 2009, it's a much better deal. He's beem one of the 5 best 2B in all of MLB for 2005, 2007, and 2008. Even if regresses, he still should be solid.

Greg, the only thing you got right is that the Mora deal was terrible because of it's length.

Waiting this long for the Roberts situation is not a problem. I feel as though it's standard practice to try and hammer out an extension or trade with a veteran player during the winter before their contract expires. Every team does it. It has nothing to do with "waiting for the market to determine" anything. The market dictates whatever it does. This winter, it's dictated that there's no compatible partners because Orlando Hundson is on the market. It has nothign to do with the Orioles indecisiveness. The market did not pass us by for Mussina - we treated him like crap so he left, understandably so.

As for signing Albert Belle - taht was a GREAT move for the Orioles. They were about a .500 team when he signed. His first year, an OPS of 941. Next was 816, with a degenerative hip condition that NO ONE knew about when he was signed. He was not a clubhouse distraction with the Orioles and played great on the field. Holding his condition as the reason the contract was bad is the equivalent of saying that "Y-team signed X-superstar to a bad contract because X-superstar developed cancer during the second year and couldn't play ever again". Obviously the consequences of the conditions differ, but the point remains the same.

and everyone - PLEASE stop talking about being a lead-off hitter. IT DOESN'T MATTER!

When Orlando Hudson is looking at a 5 mil contract, signing Roberts for 4 yrs and twice as much is foolish. It's not a good idea to stupidly overpay out of loyalty like the Evil Empire does especially when you don't possess their resources to cover their many mistakes. Hell, you could have gotten Dunn for half the commitment!

Is it me? Is Roberts really worth 4/40 in this market? I mean when you have middle inf guys like Ohud and O.Cabrera out there desperate for a 1 year contract and probably settling for around $5mil why in the world would the O's extend him for that much and if they decided to trade him who would give up good prospects AND assume whatever the balance owed on his deal is at the time? I mean he isn't exactly a spring chicken. His last two years have been very, very good but I just think from what we've seen this offseason, I'm not sure why the O's would go down this road.

They would've been better off trading him for prospects and signing a young pitcher like Oliver Perez who a) could provide some semblance of being a winning pitcher on the staff and b) is young enough to contribute 3 or 4 years down the road when the O's might be a better team.

""Considering he is a 2-bagger...this is a good move. I would take a Roberts-caliber player on my Cards for that period of time. If he played a different position I'd say no."

Will he play a passable 2B in years 3-4 of his contract? If he has to move to 1B or 3B, his value decreases, especially if he moves to 1B.

"a.) leadoff hitters do not grown on trees"

Leadoff hitters are overrated. Yes, BRob is one of the best leadoff hitters in the game. However, if his speed declines, he won't steal as many bases. And he's getting up there in age. ""

Melonis are you serious? what would ever make you think that Roberts would need to be moved off the position? 2b of Roberts skill set don't usually get moved off the position, its usually guys like Soriano who wasnt good there to begin with, or Cano who may be getting to big there. Roberts is basically an average 2B while he may decline some during the length of the deal it won't likely be to the point of a Soriano.

As for leadoff hitters being overrated sounds good on paper, its not really true. Whats overrated is speed, just because you are fast and can steal bases doesn't make you an effective leadoff hitter, just look at Bourn, Gomez, and Taveras, all are extremely fast, in fact much faster than Roberts, but none are real lead-off hitters. Bourn had a success rate of swiping bases at 80% which is great, but had only a .288 OBP and a .588 OPS. Gomez had a 75% success rate but only a .296 OBP and a .657 OPS, Taveras had an amazing 91% success rate but only managed a .308 OBP and a .604 OPS. Roberts on the other hand had an 80% success rate, but he supplemented that with a .378 OBP (which was 2nd among secondbasemen) and a .828. Roberts and leadoff hitters in general are extremely valuable commodities. And can be effective late in their careers, look at Damon as a perfect reference.

so, now brian roberts is aging/diminishing and overpaid?
that means he'd be even more perfect for the cubs

Mora is going to be 38 at the end of his deal. Roberts will be 35. Big difference. And him being a top leadoff hitter is a big part of it. Roberts can still steal bases fine. Damon and Ichiro are both 35 they seem to be fine lead off hitters.

Too many years and too many dollars.

Brian Roberts still is valuable this year. It would make sense to move him once someone loses a 2nd baseman. Not only do you save 4/40 but you also acquire additional cost controlled pieces.

"So obviously he's pretty raw at second right now, but the bat clearly has some upside. If he can figure out second base, it's likely that Hoes would be a very solid replacement for Roberts within 2-3 years.

I think a Roberts extension is an acceptable idea, but not on a 4/40 deal. I think something like 2/22 or 3/31.5 would've been more acceptable."

I will 100% agree with that scribbletone. We're arguing pretty much the same thing... That Roberts should be here for a couple more years because a) he'll be good for a couple more years, and b) LJ Hoes should be good by then.

The only issue is, the O's weren't going to get B-Rob on anything less than a 4-year-deal. They offered 3 years, he wasn't having any of it. He wanted the fourth year. So, what is your solution, if he doesn't budge from the 4th year?

When you're as bad as the O's are it only makes sense to rid yourself of your older players w/ value who are going to command long term commitments and to try to acquire as much young, controlable talent as possible. Nick Markakis and Adam Jones are good players who will keep fans interested in the O's and with Weiters and others to follow the team should be exciting to watch in the next year or so. Roberts is a great complimentary piece but not a piece you build around. Even as a 1 year rental he had value. Now they've made him untradeable and as he enters his mid 30's there's no reason to think he will be the same player.

RICKEY H took over a game. It really makes you realize what a lost art Leading Off is when you see a single player get to 3B in the course of 3 or so pitches when nothing statistically has happened yet, just a few balls and strikes thrown. Special leadoff men did this over and over again at will and could account for sapping off maybe 30 wasted pitches from the SP. Roberts isn't in that elite category. No one today is. The sad fact is that this whole current younger generation doesn't know what leading off really means because they've never seen a good one before. To them it's just a guy who steals bases which is just flatout wrong to me. The way I always saw it was that you're all-around best athletes ended up being leadoff men. Today its always pesky small hitters.

I think they have overpaid, but we're not talking about 90M for Torii Hunter or something. With the current setup of the O's roster I don't see this preventing them from signing any of their young talent. Wieters will barely be in arb and neither will any of their prized arms.

It's a good move. The O's really don't have any decent middle infield prospects that will be ready in the next couple years, so if they couldn't trade him for one, they would have to go out a spend money to get a free agent anyway. The big contracts of Huff, Mora, Walker, and Baez expire after the season, so they have the money available.

Let me give an example. If the best offers the Os are getting for Roberts is, say, 3 C prospects with moderate upside, one or two of them at A or AA who could possibly pan out in 2-3 years, the best of them might be a Tony Butler type of "project" status, I think that's the best you could hope for in a walk year for an above-average middle infielder. Personally if that's my choice, I'd rather take the draft pick if he left as a FA. OHud being on the FA market greatly affects this situation. All things considering, I'm starting to think there's not much of a possible net gain for the Os here. You might as well keep a known commodity and help your pitchers with strong up-the-middle defense.

"I'd put Grady Sizemore and Hanley Ramirez in that super elite class of leadoff hitters. Those guys are prolific"

I'd put them in the 3-hitter class. Isn't that what Ramirez and Sizemore are doing these days?

good deal with the hope the os sign him and keep him for a year or two then trade him when the market is back up. right now the os would get next to nothing for him in a trade

This is a terrible deal for the O's and a great one for Roberts if he only wants money. The O's are years (at least 3) from actually putting a competitive team on the field (by AL east standards). A huge fail for McPhail since he could've got a few cheaper, above average prospects for him. These are the types of moves that poisoned his tenure with the Cubs.

It's easy to talk about the greatest leadoff batters of all-time to set that standard, but, we don't even see solid (not quite great) leadoff men like Vince Coleman or Otis Nixon types today. There were seasons when Colemen stole OVER 100 bases and still collected over 50 walks. These guys don't get pitched around at all. They earn every walk.

Doesn't seem to smart to me but I figured the Damon signing would be horrid for the Yanks, while his bat does not play as well in a corner of position he has given them some great obp at the top of the line-up, some steals and some decent pop and has played through some minor injuries...Damon was 32, Roberts is 30...may not be a terrible situation. I still would have traded him for a ss/2b/3b/p prospect but it may work out ok for them...they should be able to add some college bats early in the draft in the middle infield that move quickly.

I'm fine with this. Having a couple established guys like roberts and markakis is great. 40/4 is a little steep now a days but could be worse. I would still lov a couple more moves from the orioles soon. I would love guys like eric patterson, brandon wood,Jeff nieman, all players who may not have spots with there teams that could be real productive when given the chance.

4 year at 10 million per for a 31 year old player on a team that is rebuilding just doesnt make a lot of sense.If he was a couple years younger or the o's were a contender then i would say hell yeah good deal but neither is the case.Considering where the o's are at right now they would of been better to pay a lil more for a shorter deal if they really wanted him to stay,maybe like 24 million over 2 years.

Maybe it doesn't make sense on paper but hear this part out as well.

If you hadn't noticed, Roberts is the longest tenured homegrown Oriole on the team. He's also an integral member of the clubhouse who regularly takes players out to dinner to hang out. He invited Adam Jones this past offseason to spend the offseason with him at the special Arizona Athletic Center. He's known to stay in touch with everyone at all times on his phone and messages Markakis and company. A lot of the players, in spite of the losing in the recent years, have said that the clubhouse is one of the loosest and most fun they've been in; and, the way these young Os have been starting to exhibit real loyalty and comradere with each other is great to see. I might argue that Roberts is a big key to that.

In every interview, with various other Os players so far this offseason, they have mentioned how important it is to extend Roberts (They said that about Markakis too). It might be one of those things that is just necessary to do to keep the young players committed to the team. It might not make baseball sense on paper at all, but if the choice is between losing the young players' longterm committment to bring back the Os vs. gaining a package of 2-3 moderate prospects, perhaps keeping Roberts actually may help the rebuilding more than a useful part here and there might?

I mean. No one's going to kick in their A prospect for Roberts. I wouldn't. OHud is out there. I'd rather sign him than give up, say, Matusz. So, the only kind of deal we'd get is probably something like: C+ Prospect with some upside, C Prospect, and maybe an organizational player.

Roberts is Baltimore.Same as Ripken was Baltimore.Other fan's are surely going to say Roberts isn't worth it nor in 4yrs he will be 50 yrs old. I'm sure the O's shopped him and figured out Roberts is worth more to their line up then A couple of b-ish prospects. The hole would be to big to fill losing Roberts.I think the O's are going to start winning a few games by 2010 and alot more by 2011. This season is interesting too.I f anyone is going to get over paid, I have no problem with it being Roberts.

LOL!! Good one Tim! I've noticed you've become more edgy in here lately. I like it!!! It's nice to see even a Cub fan getting upset with the constant crying, and moaning by his fellow cub fans. It really is annoying and I know some of my friends have even gotten to the point where they won't come here anymore cause they believe its biased and all cubs all the time. I'm gonna send them that post in here and show them they are wrong.

Although I will somewhat agree with that cub fan guy. I won't call it stupid call because with the economy he might know there is no way he will get a deal that good on the open market and maybe he has a family that loves baltimore.
But I know what you were saying (and I love it) to that guy... if Roberts wasn't a guy the Cubs had been trying to trade everyone knows he wouldn't be here making the comment about never making the playoffs and being stupid.

Rockstrongo,

Um Tim is the guy that runs this site and himself a cub fan. Go here if you don't believe me. http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2008/01/about-tim-die-1.html

It sounds like you are the typical cub fan that can't take anyone criticizing your team

Rockstrongo,

See my previous post... Youre wrong about Tim being a Cub hater and so far you've made as many good points as world series the cubs have won the last 100 years. I have to get back to work. You have to get to the unemployment line. Have a nice day

Chief- wow, i'm blown away by his lack of professionalism and his personal attack. It sure sounds as if Tim is a little insecure about fellow Cub fans stating facts and their opinions.

Chief- looks like the joke is on you. Are you getting ready to go to your job at Starbucks?

Rockstrongo,

First you state

Chief- wow, i'm blown away by his lack of professionalism and his personal attack. It sure sounds as if Tim is a little insecure about fellow Cub fans stating facts and their opinions.

Posted by: rockstrongo | February 19, 2009 at 11:24 AM

5 minutes later you state:

Chief- looks like the joke is on you. Are you getting ready to go to your job at Starbucks?

Posted by: rockstrongo | February 19, 2009 at 11:28 AM

By these two posts it doesn't sound like you were too aware of the joke either. Yep you're the typical cub fan. Completely oblivious and making dumb comments, then hoping I work at Starbucks so you find me and stalk me. Yep Cub fan

Sorry I forgot this gem of a post by detective Rockstrongo.

Tim- you're the prototypical Cubs hater. He's just stating a fact and you can't take it. Yeah, why would anyone want a chance in the playoffs when they can play for a basement dweller? Tim- I'll be waiting for your 100 year, token bash.

Posted by: rockstrongo | February 19, 2009 at 11:16 AM

It definitely sounds like you knew all along too about the fake Tim. Oh yeah dumbass its 101 years now, not 100. I know you cant count that high, but other people can

Rockstrongo,

Scroll back up through the posts, I never pointed out Tim's post being a joke, Studio179 did. I really thought that the one guy was Tim and then you posted something saying Tim was a cub hater. I just posted back that he wasn't and is actually a cub fan. The reason I got pissed was cause you were pretending that you knew all along that it was the fake Tim who made the first post and tried to make me look like an idiot for not knowing it wasn't Tim when if you go back through your posts it was obvious you didn't know either.

Anyways its over with. I went back up and looked at the names and the real Tim is

Tim Dierkes

The fake guy is

Tim Dierkes.

Btw, Tim can't you block him from signing on by blocking out the email we have to use to sign in or something ?

Chief- no, I never knew it was a fake post by an impersonator of Tim. I thought it was misleading that you said Tim was a Cubs fan, and seemed to be bashing them at the same time. I said "the jokes on you" because you thought the real Tim was on the same page as you regarding whiny Cub fans when he's clearly not.

I think what many fans outside of Baltimore don't realize is that Roberts is extremely important to the makeup of this team and organization in ways beyond just stats. All the outside fan has to go by is looking at Roberts' stats and add it up and see if it makes sense or not. Though if the Os players today decided to vote for a captain, I think that person would easily be Brian Roberts, who is essentially the heart-and-soul of the team.

Think about it. 2 years ago when this round of rebuilding started in earnest, the Os traded their best position player (Tejada) and pitcher (Bedard). To outside baseball fans, a Roberts trade was inevitable because he was seen as a secondary tier of player compared to the ones they just shipped out. Since then Roberts has been rumored for seemingly forever but no trade was made. Some have said it's because the Os were asking for a lot. Well, part of that calculus was evaluating the price of subtracting such a major spiritual leader in the clubhouse. It would have been damaging and sent a very bad message to the younger players the Os are banking on for the future.

I know it doesn't make statistical sense to extend Roberts, but extending your de facto Captain usually doesn't make sense on paper.

lol I dont recall loyalty being in the air when he was supposed to be a cub all last year and part of this year.

it's kind of amusing...

for all the kids, the high schoolers, colleges players, minor leaguers, AAAA players...

40 million reasons to take steroids.

i believe roberts is the first one who admitted (got caught) using a banned substance to sign a multi-year contract.

Duh, I'm talking about when Biggio was Robert's age. lol