Offseason In Review: Los Angeles Dodgers

Tim I have to say I think your completely wrong on this one.

The Dodgers lose Derek Lowe, Brad Penny and Greg Maddux from the rotation and replace them with Randy Wolf, and hopefuls Jeff Weaver and Shawn Estes.

For the most part, the offense is the same as last year with the only difference being Orlando Hudson, a .282 career hitter.

The Dodgers last year without Manny were 54-54, and with him were 30-24. Is there a trmendous difference with him? No. The team was average before, and only slightly better than average with him.

Take Saito and Beimel out of the bullpen, and only replace them with Ohman.

With all this in consideration, why does everyone feel they will run away with the division? The Giants are better, and every other team is unchanged for the most part.

The rotation is much weaker than 2008, the offense is slightly better, the bullpen is worse, and yet for some reason you think they will win 7-8 more games than last year??

I usually agree with you Tim but I don't see the Dodgers winning more than 90 games. Even with Manny I don't think they're much better than "above average". They'll probably win the weak NL West but you never know about those D'Backs.

The Dodgers lose Derek Lowe, Brad Penny and Greg Maddux from the rotation and replace them with Randy Wolf, and hopefuls Jeff Weaver and Shawn Estes.

It's like you didn't even read the post. Weaver and Estes aren't even on the 40 man roster. Of course they wouldn't be a better team with Weaver and Estes. That's why we replaced Lowe and Penny with McDonald and Wolf.

It's kinda stinky in here... someone is talking out of their ace.

In addition to a full season of Manny, the youngster sluggers (Kemp, Ethier, Martin) enter this season with another year of experience seeing pitchers, and a postseason cup of coffee under their belts.

But most of all, the improvement comes in getting rid of Andruw Jones. Remember that the Dodger offense was dragged down for the first half of the year by Torre's insistence on playing the sub-Mendoza Jones on a daily basis in a futile attempt to "get him started". The Dodger offense enters this season, as compared to last, not only benefitting from the addition of Ramirez, and from the kids, but also from the removal of a guaranteed strikeout or GIDP from the heart of their order.

The top of the order has improved as well. Furcal/Hudson > Furcal/Pierre by a country mile.

"The Dodgers lose Derek Lowe, Brad Penny and Greg Maddux from the rotation and replace them with Randy Wolf, and hopefuls Jeff Weaver and Shawn Estes."

Wrong. The Dodger lost Lowe, but they never really had Penny last season. He was on the DL for half of the season and had an ERA of over 6.00 for the rest of it. Maddux was around for only the last few weeks of the season and wasn't that effective. Neither Weaver nor Estes are in the rotation. In fact neither of them are even on the roster!

Helps to start with some facts.

"They retain Kuo and Broxton who are the best 1-2 punch in the NL west and perhaps the NL."

Now that's funny.

"The Dodgers lost Derek Lowe, Brad Penny, and Greg Maddux from the rotation"

Losing Lowe will hurt. Losing Penny and Maddux is a freaking blessing; they combined to put up a 5.88 ERA in 136 innings as Dodgers last year. Good thing they're not around anymore.

"For the most part, the offense is the same as last year with the only difference being Orlando Hudson, a .282 career hitter."

Shortstop for the Dodgers last season: 1 month of All-Star Furcal, 5 months of .230-hitting Angel Berroa. Don't forget that. And thank you for pointing out the contract-year-driven Hudson over 40-year-old Kent upgrade, which will also be significant.

"The Dodgers last year without Manny were 54-54, and with him were 30-24. Is there a trmendous difference with him? No. The team was average before, and only slightly better than average with him."

First off, 30-24 comes out to a .556 winning percentage; project that over 162 games and you get 90 wins. Then factor in that that 30-24 was done with the up-the-middle infield defense of Berroa/Kent, which was utterly awful, and that Furcal/Hudson will be a giant upgrade over that. Also factor in the offensive upgrades that Furcal and Hudson will provide, and that 30-24 is not at all indicative of what the team is capable of with Manny aboard.

"Take Saito and Beimel out of the bullpen, and only replace them with Ohman."

Beimel wasn't very good last year. His ERA was very good, but that's about it; he let a ton of inherited runners score and was just okay against lefties. I think Ohman can be that good or better. And losing Saito will hurt, but remember that the Dodger bullpen was incredibly great last year; this year it'll probably be merely good. Definitely not bad, as you seem to be implying.

"With all this in consideration, why does everyone feel they will run away with the division? The Giants are better, and every other team is unchanged for the most part."

The Giants are better. But their offense is still incredibly bad, and worse than the Dodger offense at every position. Lincecum and Cain are better than Billingsley and Kuroda, but how much better are 46-year-old Randy Johnson, 5.17 ERA Barry Zito, and unproven Jonathon Sanchez than Randy Wolf, Clayton Kershaw, and James McDonald? Probably not very much. And don't even try to compare the bullpens; the Dodgers have the clear advantage, and also the advantage on defense. The Dbacks are also good and will give the Dodgers a run, but who else will?

"The rotation is much weaker than 2008, the offense is slightly better, the bullpen is worse, and yet for some reason you think they will win 7-8 more games than last year??"

Yes, because for the first four months of the season the Dodgers had Angel Berroa at shortstop (an offensive and defensive black hole), Andruw Jones and Juan Pierre alternating in the outfield position not taken up by Kemp or Ethier (which will now be occupied full-time by Manny Ramirez), Jeff Kent at second base (who was terrible on defense and just okay at the plate; now replaced by Orlando Hudson), and a combination of Blake Dewitt and Andy LaRoche at third base (who, combined, weren't nearly as good as Casey Blake will be). Add in the likely offensive improvements that'll come from Loney, Kemp, Ethier, and Martin just because they're all moving a year closer to their primes, and ACCUSCORE's projection of 93 wins for the Dodgers seems about accurate in this division.

And BTW, who's team's closer lead the division in saves and was an All Star?

Here's a hint, it starts with a G and ends with iants.

Actually I'd take Sandoval over Blake any day.

"And you can talk about how Penny wasn't effective last year, but the guy was a staple in your rotation for years and was very good most of the time. How about 16-4 with a 3.03 era in 2007 before injuries limited playing time last year? Yea, I'm sure you can replace that with a 23 year old who has pitched an astounding 6 innings in his career."

What he did in 2007 doesn't mean anything. We're talking about how the 2009 Dodger team is an improvement over the 2008 team. And in 2008, Penny was God-awful; 6.27 ERA in 94 innings. I'm positive that our 24-year-old rookie with 11.1 innings under his belt can equal or better that, considering that his ML ERA is 0.00 and he dominated the Phillies in the NLCS last year.

"For example, the guy who said all the young Dodger hitters are now a year older.. Isnt it true that ALL hitters are now a year older than 2008? Idiot."

Yes. But the Dodger offense includes a ton of young players with promise: Kemp, Ethier, Loney, and Martin. Last year was the first full season for Kemp and Ethier and Loney, and with that experience they should get much better as they move toward their primes. It's definitely possible that Furcal, Hudson, Manny, and Blake will all get slightly worse as they move away from their primes, but you can't think that Kemp/Ethier/Loney/Martin will all be exactly as good as they were last year, because they've all got a full year under their belts and know the league now.

"My point about Weaver and Estes was that Colletti brought in a bunch of old, dying talents that he hoped would somehow pull it together, and people think he had a great off season."

I agree that Ned's offseason was overrated, but you can't say it wasn't good. He opened the offseason needing to fill holes at two starting pitcher positions, two relief pitcher positions, third base, shortstop, and outfield...all while lowering the payroll significantly to adjust for the economy. And considering what he had to work with, he did a good job. Not a great job, but a good one. You can't deny that. Oh, and to say that Weaver and Estes were "key" offseason signings is very dumb; they were brought in to compete for the fifth starter job in case Schmidt wasn't healthy to start the season. They didn't figure to be big-time contributors to the team.

"Dodger fans look at everything one sided."

Watch as I use your own logic against you:

"And BTW, who's team's closer lead the division in saves and was an All Star?

Here's a hint, it starts with a G and ends with iants."

Brian Wilson ERA last season: 4.62

Brian Wilson WHIP last season: 1.44

Brian Wilson BAA last season: .263

Jonathon Broxton ERA last season: 3.13

Jonathon Broxton WHIP last season: 1.17

Jonathon Broxton BAA last season: .217

Your move.

"""You guys are morons."""

Come on... no need to get snippy, "SFG55".

All I have to say is...
http://img528.imageshack.us/img528/4628/giantstrophycase1289gf.jpg

Check, please...

SFG55, the best close in the NL was in Philly, Brad Lidge.

SFG55, the best close in the NL was in Philly, Brad Lidge.

Which is why I said NL West. Thanks.

The Giants have good pitching and no hitting, and the Dodgers have good hitting and no pitching.

Ever heard of "Good pitching beats good hitting"?

SFG55, i realized that after i posted. But how can you say Kuroda, Billz, Kershaw, and Wolf= no pitching? Linecum is better than Billz, right now, CainZito. I wouldnt really say we have 'no pitching'

How can you say we have no hitting then?

We have Pablo Sandoval who is everyone's breakout player this year and experts are projecting him to hit over .300 with 20 hrs. Did you see his .450+ ba in spring training.

We have Travis Ishikawa who hit 7 hr in spring training, and in his first at bat of the year should've had a grand slam (Thanks triples alley!). Projected to hit 20-22 hr.

We bring in a .300 career hitter in Edgar Renteria.

Rowand should be closer to the 29 hr guy from 2007 than the 13 hr guy from 2008, now that he's fully healthy.

Bengie Molina last year had one of the most underrated 95 rbi seasons ever.

Burriss can rake, as can Lewis and a combined 60 sb between them will happen.

Did you notice how we put up 10 runs on opening day? Wait and see, this offense isn't as dormant as people think it is.

Saves mean nothing. Zero, nada, zilch. If you're trusting saves and nothing else as your go-to stat for relief pitchers, then Todd Jones is better than Goose Gossage. In fact, the only thing that might mean less than saves is All-Star appearances. Scott Cooper was a two-time All-Star; ever heard of him? Ron Coomer was an All-Star; ever heard of him? Mark Redman was an All-Star, and he sucks. Cesar Izturis was an All-Star, and he was absolutely terrible that year. You've used two very very very dumb examples to prove that Wilson is the best closer in the NL West. And, if possible, you used even dumber reasons to prove that the Giants' offense is good (citing spring training stats, thinking that Rowand/Molina/Renteria are actually going to improve on their 2008 numbers when they are now 31, 34, and 33 years old respectively, saying that "Burriss can rake" when PECOTA has him down to hit .252/.312/.304 next year, saying that "Ishikawa is projected to hit 20-22 homers" when PECOTA has him down for 14 and a .246 batting average, saying that a 10-run game on Opening Day against Jeff freaking Suppan is indicative of anything). Good job.

At least I have facts. You keep saying he's not the best and yet I see nothing to prove he's not.

You're an idiot. Pecota is garbage first of all. Did you know that the confidence rating for Pecota is +-10? That means if they project a team to win 80 games, their really saying they will win between 70-90 games. Wow why not be a little more general with your estimations??

Pecota is fuking stupid, real numbers is where the facts are at.

And what about "the best lineup in the NL" putting up 3 runs today.. ON KEVIN CORREIA!!!!!!!!

Go screw yourself.

You're making this way to personal. You really need to calm down dude, it should be a debate, not a childish argument.

Yea, he resigned Furcal. That improves the team because Furcal only had around 150 ABs last season - assuming he gets 500, the team will be better.

Kershaw and McDonald are two of the best prospects in baseball. The rotation isn't as good as last season, but only losing Lowe is the big loss. The rest is still steady.

Manny + probable improvements from Loney, Kemp, Ethier will create a better offense. Add in Hudson, a full season of Blake and you get overall a better team.

Giants fans are so bitter! I guess would be too if my team had won 0.0 championships since the move West, which is 50 years of baseball.

Bottom line, the Dodgers have the best offense in the NL west, the best bullpen in the NL west, and the third best pitching staff. Is that enough to win the NL West? Most experts say yes.

Saying you don't believe in CHONE or PECOTA is like saying you don't believe in evolution. You either trust experts or you don't.

Evolution is for pussies.

God made man.

If we evolved from monkeys, why are there still monkeys?

Probably so there would be Dodger fans.

Dodgers have SUCH a good offense, I can't believe they scored a whole 3 runs today against the Padres..

Did you see the heart of your order in the 9th? Can you say flop?

Man on third no outs. Manny grounds, Ethier walks, Martin grounds into dp.

Solid offense, just solid.

Youre really not making a better case with your recent posts. CC Sabathia sucked Monday - does that mean he'll suck the whole season? The Dodgers offense "flopped" one game and you're calling them bad?

And Check your stats. The Cubbies have the most wins all-time. Though that stat doesn't mean squat.

Sfg55 you should be banned. You are personally attacking posters.

Every major news outlet/media website, whatever.. has the Dodgers winning the division or the D-Backs.

If Webb is not hurt the D-Backs have the best rotation in the West.

Not the Giants with there Major League leading wins in history. With no championships on the West Coast.

Sounds really stupid huh?

Cause it is.

92 wins? HA! We're going 160-2!

And BTW, who's team's closer lead the division in saves and was an All Star?

Here's a hint, it starts with a G and ends with iants.

Posted by: SFG55 | April 09, 2009 at 02:31 PM

LOL

LOL

Oh so LOL

Brian Wilson was so bad last year, hahaha.

4.62 ERA 1.44 Whip and 95 ERA+

What a god-like figure. LMAO

How can you say we have no hitting then?

We have Pablo Sandoval who is everyone's breakout player this year and experts are projecting him to hit over .300 with 20 hrs. Did you see his .450+ ba in spring training.

We have Travis Ishikawa who hit 7 hr in spring training, and in his first at bat of the year should've had a grand slam (Thanks triples alley!). Projected to hit 20-22 hr.

We bring in a .300 career hitter in Edgar Renteria.

Rowand should be closer to the 29 hr guy from 2007 than the 13 hr guy from 2008, now that he's fully healthy.

Bengie Molina last year had one of the most underrated 95 rbi seasons ever.

Burriss can rake, as can Lewis and a combined 60 sb between them will happen.

Did you notice how we put up 10 runs on opening day? Wait and see, this offense isn't as dormant as people think it is.

Posted by: SFG55 | April 09, 2009 at 05:00 PM

Yup, spring training determines how you do in the season. Which is why Doug M. slugged .650 plus and will do the same in the 09 regular season.

Also, that 98 OPS+ season from Benji Molina was vastly underrated last year. You are sooooo right.

Anything else you wanna say? it seems like your enjoying talking to yourself.

I said Molina had a very underrated 95 rbis, did I mention his OPS+? No. Get a clue.

Anybody knows that a few bad appearences will kill a relievers era. Ask Mariano Rivera. If Wilson goes out there every time and pitches masterfully, and then one game just flares up and gives up 3 or 4 runs, his era could shoot up by a whole point or two. Pitching an inning at a time will take forever to bring it back down.

Somehow you feel the need to make excuses for Kuo though. "He was a starter.. boo hoo.."

Posted by: SFG55 | April 09, 2009 at 09:36 PM

You do realize how little RBIs actually show how good a player is, right?

And yeah, one bad experience can kill a pitchers stats. For instance Broxton had a 1/3 of an inning 6 earned run appearance in Houston, and still had a low 3s ERA. Wilson must have had about 7 of those types of games to have his awesome ERA and ERA+.

It was not an excuse for Kuo, because he needs no excuse after having a 200 ERA+ last season. Kuo is better than ANY relief pitcher on the Giants...pretty much by far.

But hey, you keep it up with your attacks and mindless ramblings on how crappy the Dodgers are and how great the Giants are. You have got to be about 13.

Apparently I was right.. Your mom probably called you up for dinner.

Your telling me to grow up?

I didn't start any of this.

I told Tim Dierkes I didn't agree with his post and stated my reasons why, not bashing anyone.

Then I had like 5 Dodger fans come in acting like tough guys and talk shi/t about the Giants. Naturally I'm going to talk shi/t back.

I've made it clear that I think the Dodgers have a good chance of winning the division, but nobody seems to give the Giants even a small chance to compete. I think your all wrong and its going to be a very tight race come september.

If you can't take it, don't dish it out.

I've made it clear that I think the Dodgers have a good chance of winning the division, but nobody seems to give the Giants even a small chance to compete. I think your all wrong and its going to be a very tight race come september.'

All your posts have been about how the dodgers should be dead last, how we sucked against the Pads today, how the giants should run away with the divison, how every giant player is so much better than anyone on the dodgers. Next, your probably going to say that the Giants have been more dominant on the west coast, right?

And the closer comment.

The relievers for the All Star game were:

AL: Rodriguez, Papelbon, Rivera, Sherill, Soria, Nathan.

NL: Marmol, Wood, Wilson, Lidge, Wagner.

Those look like the best relievers out there...

honestly, if you had 5 Lincecum's, you would have been in the playoffs, but you dont, so you werent. Fantasy is A LOT different than real life. Its like saying that because you were able to win with the Royals in MLB 09 the show, they will win the title.

One thing all baseball fans know, espically Dodger fans, is that young position players usually take a few years to adjust to MLB pitching. If the Giants are able to keep the core intact, ALL their kids grow, and they dont have any more Zito and Rowand like FA signings, they could compete in a few years. BUt to say that because some of their higher prospects are coming to the majors that they will win every day and put up 5+ runs a game, is unrealistic.

And unlike you, the dodger fans are calling you a moron, but rather thats been you against the dodger fans.

Yea I know fantasy is different than real life. My point is that just because people say they won't compete, doesn't mean they actually won't.

How many people picked the Rays to be successful? NONE. NOT TIM DIERKES, NOT BUSTER OLNEY, NOT PETER GAMMONS. No one. The same can be said about the Philles.

I will believe what I will believe and not instantly believe what people tell me. Maybe you should try to do the same.

Yea thats right.. go try and look up some absurd stat to prove a useless point.

I'm done with this garbage.

this is Brian wilson career numbers:

6 wins, 7 losses, 4.33ERA, 119 games, 48 saves, 8 blown, 116.1 innings, 110 hits, 57runs, 56 earned, 9HR, 56BB, 109Ks, 102ERA+. those numbers arent that dominant. it says he gives up almost a hit an inning, and a run every other apperance.

Franky is 23W and 17L, 2.34ERA, 410 games, 210 saves, 299 games finished, 453.2 innings, 305 hits, 130 runs, 118 earned, 34HR, 200BB, 19 were intential, 589Ks, 190era+. its not close.

And most people said that the rays were going to be the breakout team last year, but we didnt know how far they would go.

"Yea thats right.. go try and look up some absurd stat to prove a useless point.

I'm done with this garbage.

Posted by: SFG55 | April 09, 2009 at 10:39 PM"

Yes look up another stupid stat, Baseball the game built on stats.

They just look better if you live north of the 14 freeway I guess.

Brian Wilson was an all star last year because the league was required by rule to pick SOMEONE. Personally, I think the best player on the team last year may have been Bruce Bochy.

"Wilson is playing right alongside players like K-Rod, Rivera, Papelbon, Nathan... and yet you won't admit he's good."

Okay, come on..

Yeah, Wilson is better than a lot of Dodger fans have made him out to be. But he's not even close to the level of those guys. Yeah, he's got a big fastball that sits in the 94-97 range, but he also has a career walk rate over 4.00, and he gave up his fair share of home runs last season. Wilson is a good closer, but he'll need to show better command before anyone considers him elite.

The funny thing about this is that the Dodger happen to actually have one of the best closers in the game in Broxton. Few people realize how dominant he was last season. He posted a huge 11.48 K/9, gave up just 2 home runs in 69 innings, and finished the year with an unreal 2.26 FIP. Broxton's has a 2.69 career FIP, which is right in line with the very best relievers in the game.

If you want to talk about the best reliever in the division, it's Jonathan Broxton, and it's not that close.

"How many people picked the Rays to be successful? NONE. NOT TIM DIERKES, NOT BUSTER OLNEY, NOT PETER GAMMONS. No one. The same can be said about the Philles."

There was a lot of talk last season about the Rays contending soon, and PECOTA projected the Rays to win 89 games last season. Apparently you just weren't paying enough attention. And Gammons and Olney are freaking morons anyways, so they're opinions are pretty much worthless.

"Yea thats right.. go try and look up some absurd stat to prove a useless point.

I'm done with this garbage.

Posted by: SFG55 | April 09, 2009 at 10:39 PM"

Using RBI's AVE. E.R.A. and Saves as your argument is pretty absurd.

The Giants aren't very good.
It's pretty obvious.
Yeah, they got some very great pitching, but come on, you have to admit that RIGHT NOW, the Giants offense is teh suck.

Advance stats geeks had the Rays going all the way.

Old schoolers who still think 95RBI's makes you an offensive talent are the ones who had no idea about the Rays.

he blew a bunch last year, i guess 8, i dont know the number off the top of my head, but at least half came in his first few chances. I think he blew 3 of his first 4 saves, being a 25 year old closer for a contending team is a big responsibility and it took him a couple times to settle in. 4 or 5 saves over 1/2 a season for a first year closer isnt nearly as bad