Bay, Red Sox Put Extension Talks Aside

I really hope that they didn't try bay's gangsta with 2/20 million. That is a slap in the face. He deserves 14-16 million a year. His age complicates the years but if Boston is going to throw Dunns contract out there say goodbye to Bay Boston fans.

The biggest problem for the Sox is that they're (over)paying Drew $14M/year. Bay is certainly worth more than Drew.

Posted by: Little Bear | July 17, 2009 at 09:41 AM

No, courtesy of Fansgraphs, Drew has been the more valuable player this year thanks to his defense.

Bay consisently crappy defense hurts his overall value... especially moving forward.

He would probably be the full-time DH by 2011 when Papi's contract is up.

I've been laughing at Bay's agent since day one. I love Jason Bay. Best addition the Red Sox have made since Beckett/Lowell (not that there has been much else to compare besides Dice-K as Lugo turned out horrid and even Matsuzaka is shakey now). However, he hit .250 last season and since he hit .300 (I believe in his second season) his average has steadily dropped each year. If Bay can be a .280 hitter with 40 homers and 115-130 RBI's a season then sure I say go ahead and ink him for 56 mil over 4 years. However, if he continues at the .260 rate and fails to hit either the 115 rbi or 40 homer mark (even by 1), I can't see him being valued at over 3 years 30 million. I think that will be his top offer and the Red Sox will happily accept him back anyway at that. The Yankees may make a bid, but if they want Bay, we go Holliday or move some young pitching for a slugger like Miguel Cabrera or similar. This is the first time I can really ever say what happens to such a significant player, really means nothing to the franchise. Bay has no leverage.

If Bay is seeking a three to four year deal for about $14mil/year, then I think a 3yr, 14/ deal is acceptable. Yeah, Dunn signed for 10/ for two years, but Bay is at least a BIT better than him defensively and is an obvious upgrade over him on the basepaths. I think that overrall that would be a good deal. They don't need to go to that fourth year though. That is getting into a danger area. Plus, that gives the sox one season of Bay after Drew's contract goes, so you don't have them all expiring at one time but can move things in and out better.

Speculation here, but I see Jermaine Dye as a good fit for the Red Sox...with probably a more favorable contract than a Bay/Holliday.

Yeah-I think the short deal is key, 1 year plus option.
Main reason is Joe Mauer.

Holliday and Bay will likely take 5 years to get.

"No, courtesy of Fansgraphs, Drew has been the more valuable player this year thanks to his defense."

Every time I see FanGraphs quoted, it's something spectacularly stupid like this. I don't trust the site at all.

I doubt if even 5% of the people who watch the Red Sox play every day think that Drew is worth more than Bay. Even when he's not out with an injury, Drew is barely more than a platoon player. Bay plays every day, no matter who is pitching, and has a 53 point higher OPS.

Every time I see FanGraphs quoted, it's something spectacularly stupid like this. I don't trust the site at all.

I doubt if even 5% of the people who watch the Red Sox play every day think that Drew is worth more than Bay. Even when he's not out with an injury, Drew is barely more than a platoon player. Bay plays every day, no matter who is pitching, and has a 53 point higher OPS.

Posted by: Little Bear | July 17, 2009 at 11:52 AM

Maybe you should start a petition to shut down fangraphs then...

But I like your analysis:

Take away almost every metric, both offensively and defensively... and compare players based on OPS numbers, nothing more.

What's more valuable to you?

a 1 pitch single?

or a 7 pitch walk?

Just because Drew doesn't slam 40 HRs a year doesn't mean he's not as valuable as a player like Bay.

Drew is exactly the kind of player Theo covet's. A high OBP machine who plays outstanding defense.

If you don't like these types because he doesn't hit 40 homeruns, then you might want to root for a different team... because I doubt Theo's philosophy is going to change anytime soon.

i wouldn't put bay and holliday in a nyjer/ span category though

:/ not good

can everybody just relax bay WILL be with the red sox next year

Why in the world would anyone pay Holliday 18 million a year when he has no power this year? Its gonna take 5 years minimum to get a deal done. I wouldn't pay him more than 13 per, but I could see a reckless club giving him 16 to 18.

Good point about Dye. He is going to be the steal of the free agent class next year because he still somehow flys under the radar yet being one of the most consistent players in the game. The guy still does not get his props even though he puts up great numbers every year and goes about it his business day in and day out.

While the Sox and Yankees are busy fussing over Holliday and Bay next year somebody is going to swoop in and steal Dye and probably get the better player out of the 3.

Personally I would love to see Dye manning RF for the Yankees next year hitting 5th everyday right behind Arod. The Yankees don't need a star they need a rock and that is what Dye is.

The Red Sox will throw a million offers at Bay and I'm sure he'll take one of them, knowing he'll make alot of money while playing for a good team, year after year.

In the event that the Red Sox "strikeout" with re-signing Jason Bay, Matt Holliday would be the Boston's next target.

"But then, playing left at Fenway isn't like playing left at any other stadium."

Manny did it. How hard can it be?

re: penny on the market; but only for a package with a talent like J Smoak

//gammoned

You could afford to give Dye more years, less annual in Fenway's LF as long as you don't think his offensive production will fall off too bad. His arm in a short left field would be ridiculous as well

The Sox and Bay should both find the middle ground - 3yrs at 12.5m per with a team option for a fourth year at the same rate.

Bay is overplaying his hand if he holds out for the extra 1.5m, and the Sox are being foolish if they are sticking to the 2/20 deal.

Bay's swing and creaky knees make him a good fit in Fenway's LF. The hole in his swing is becoming more exploited as AL teams get a better look at him. He fits well in the 5 or 6 hole over the next three years.

They should both get this thing done so they can both focus on other stuff.