Roy Halladay Rumors: Friday

1- So the Cardinals aren't trading for Halladay. Can Mozeliak and crew just step up and say that. Because Rasmus is a must have.

2- I don't think the Yanks really should go for Halladay anyway. You're going to see improvement from that staff, and there is no need for the Yanks to make a major addition to the rotation. Go with CC-AJ-Joba-Pettitte-Hughes.

Different day, same rumors. If anything happens, it will probably be right at the deadline. No one wants to give up their prized prospects so its going to be back and forth for the next 2 weeks

"Phil Hughes, for now at least, gives his team the best eighth inning it has had in a while."

Lmao. Lupica is an idiot. Yeah, because Joba was so horrible pitching in the 8th.

minor leaguers across the land would KILL for the "hole in Michael Taylor's swing".

That "hole" accounted for an OPS hovering above and just below 1.000 this year.

Actually the most insightful part of the piece from the Conlin article (who normally is a horrible writer, IMO) was this:

"What if . . . . What if it turns out that the Phils were the ONLY bidder?"

The ONLY issue I'd have with Taylor is how his diabetes will affect his play if at all as his game progresses. He has sat out a game or two this year supposedly because of that.

Mike Lupica is pretty much a joke in NY.He has written the same jive for the last fifteen years as you know what he is going to say before you read it.Mike should just keep sucking up to Imus and hang out with his idols at Elaine's.

How come all the big outlets completely ignore the idea of Doc going to Colorado? All they have been talking about is why he can't go other places, the least they could do is saying why he won't go to Denver. They have the prospects and he wouldn't veto the trade. All they would need is the money. If they could trade atkins and MArquis that should free up enough to at least allow the Monforts and partial owner Pete Coors to be able to find the rest somwehere. With Halladay, I think the Rockies COULD win the NL West.

One Halladay has a full no trade why would he go to the Rockies, sorry Rox fans just not happening. your not leap frogging the giants and dodgers

yes, the jays under a lot of pressue to do this. they need to shed payroll and fast and with oweing 81 mil to 8 players next year and this year payroll only being 80 mil it makes alot of sense. Rios wont bring in anything of value and wells wont either. the only one with true value is doc. this will be a deadline deal without a doubt.

"Santana got dealt for less than expected, so did C.C., Haren, etc. Bedard was probably the only one that got full vallue, and I doubt the Mariners expected Sherrill to be as good as he has been."

What? No.

1. Johan had a full NTC and demanded a massive extension in order to waive it. Mandatory extensions that require teams to commit 100MM++ automatically kill trade value. Seriously, everyone, please stop pulling the Johan deal as a comparison since there are many, many more teams that can afford 15-20MM than 137MM.

2. CC commanded a prospect who was top 15 in all of baseball along with another really good prospect in Brantley along with Bryson and Jackson. In other words, a better prospect *at the time* than almost all the guys who are being floated around as centerpieces of Halladay deals (Drabek, Taylor, Wallace, etc.). His stock has dropped since he was traded, but GMs don't have crystal balls. Oh yeah, this was for half a year of CC.

3. Haren has improved significantly since 2007. Haren *at the time of trade* wasn't in the same class of pitcher as Halladay, and yet he commanded a massive haul.

Theoretically, the A's could fill 3 starting positions (LF/RF, 1B/DH, and SP) with guys acquired in that haul not counting whatever Matt Holliday brings back, trade or draft picks. Yeah, that haul was giant.

JP still has all the cards. And he still has all of them through the offseason, thanks to expiring contracts increasing payroll flexibility, more potential suitors, and a really weak FA SP market.

melonis - i think JP is being forced to shed payroll. They paid BJ Ryan to go away. He knows that he can demand MORE and actually get MORE if he trades him before the deadline. Phillies or not, Halladay moves the 28th or 29th IMO.

JP still has all the cards. And he still has all of them through the offseason, thanks to expiring contracts increasing payroll flexibility, more potential suitors, and a really weak FA SP market.

Posted by: melonis rex | July 17, 2009 at 11:25 AM

Agree with everything but this last statement...

JP does NOT have financial flexibility and the Blue Jays are the only team who already has a higher payroll in 2010 than they do in 2009. They have $81M committed to next years group, mainly because the Wells and Rios contracts kick into gear (and get even worse in 2011)...

I think this is significant. They are going to lose some of their everyday players to FA and they have raises coming to some of their cost controlled guys through arb awards.

This means they will have to add significant payroll all while probably having no better than a 15% chance of making the playoffs thanks to their division.

I think Riccardi will ultimately have to sell some of these guys (Rolen, for example) for .60 cents on the dollar after getting pressured from ownership.

Not saying Halladay will not net a huge return because of this fact, but like others have mentioned, I do think we'll be surprised the return wasn't as big as we all thought.

That said, yes, with so many teams needing SP, Riccardi may be fortunate enough to watch someone overpay... but I wonder how many teams look at the Jays financials and wonder how long it will be before they call JP's bluff.

Allow me to clarify.
If the Roc were to trade Atkins to someone like the Red Sox and Marquis somewhere else that wants pitching, they would free up 16.9MM for this year. Halladay makes 14.25MM this year. That frees up the money issue.

The Rockies could then send a prospect package to Toronto with guys like Nelson or Gomez since they want a SS. Maybe Willin Ramirez or McKenry. Young pitchers like Chacin, Esmil, Reynolds, Freidrich, Weathers. Some mix and match of that ilk, plus Ubaldo, who has been involved in these package rumors and I think that could do it. MOrales would take Ubaldo's place in the rotation.

On the making winnign the division, I forgot that the dodgers were so far ahead. But with Halladay, I think they could again make the playoffs via Wildcard, of which they are 1.5 games back.

I can't believe the Brewers aren't taking a serious look at Halladay. They need someone to help carry the load with Gallardo pretty badly if they want to have a shot at a repeat post-season appearance.

Allow me to clarify.
"If the Roc were to trade Atkins to someone like the Red Sox and Marquis somewhere else that wants pitching, they would free up 16.9MM for this year. Halladay makes 14.25MM this year. That frees up the money issue.

The Rockies could then send a prospect package to Toronto with guys like Nelson or Gomez since they want a SS. Maybe Willin Ramirez or McKenry. Young pitchers like Chacin, Esmil, Reynolds, Freidrich, Weathers. Some mix and match of that ilk, plus Ubaldo, who has been involved in these package rumors and I think that could do it. MOrales would take Ubaldo's place in the rotation.

On the making winnign the division, I forgot that the dodgers were so far ahead. But with Halladay, I think they could again make the playoffs via Wildcard, of which they are 1.5 games back."

The idea of trading off Atkins and Marquis for money to get Halladay is actually not a bad idea. The Philles were interested in Marquis and were willing to give up Happ for him until he was pulled off the market, and Atkins could be thought to bring back relief help. And yes, it frees up payroll.

However, the Rockies should, and will not trade Ubaldo Jimenez, who signed a very favorable and affordable contract that keeps him under team control till at least 2014, and according to Fangraphs, is more valuable than Halladay himself.

And to the person who stated that Halladay wouldn't go to Colorado A) he grew up there and B) the Rockies are very close to a Wildcard spot, so he would win there.

If the Rockies traded off Marquis and Atkins, my package for Halladay is Chacin/Hammel/Rosario/Gomez/mid level pitching prospect, though if the Blue Jays demanded Stewart or Jimenez, O'Dowd should hang up the phone.

"Ubaldo Jimenez, who signed a very favorable and affordable contract that keeps him under team control till at least 2014, and according to Fangraphs, is more valuable than Halladay himself."

That I didn't know. However, the money from attendence of Halladay being a Rockie would help to even things out, as Woody Paige pointed out in an article earlier this week. Also, the money that the Rockies were going to offer Holliday for an extension has yet to be allocated, so they have the money.

On Ubaldo, I like him, but I actually like Hammel better. He has a 1.97 ERA on the road this season. Coors is a hard place to pitch, but I think over time, he his home number will improve to the 3-4.00 area.

But honestly, what the hell else are the rockies going to do with all these young guys. Theres a log jam in the LF, with Gonzalez, Smith and Splibourghs. Gomez and Nelson aren't coming up with Tulo there. Barmes could be traded once EY2 is up. Atkins or Stewart at 3B, pick one. All these guys could be traded from something rather than never play or just be released like they did with Koshansky. I mean, Baseball America listed him as the Rox #1 power prospect. You could have gotten SOMETHING!

Phils, no doubt there's posturing happening in the media & maybe there's nothing wrong with that - it's fun debate & all but if anyone calls Ricciardi & mentions 'untouchables', it's a real short phone call.

Bobmac, tell me what he is going to write tomorrow. This way dont have buy paper.

The most annoying part of rumors like this is everyone comes out of the woodwork: "ZOMG ROY HALLADAY BEST PITCHER IN BASEBALL WE WANT THE TOP 20 PROSPECTS IN BASEBALL, YOU'RE WIFE, AND YOUR FIRST BORN VIRGIN DAUGHTER!!!1111!!!11!!@"

That isn't how it works. He may very will be the best pitcher in baseball, but there are a lot of factors to consider.

1. Pitchers carry far more risk than hitters.

2. Starting pitchers only take the ball every 5th day. Everyday players have more impact. 1 & 2 are reasons why the package likely wont be as great as what Tex got.

3. He's expensive. The trade wouldn't just be for prospects. It'd be for prospects and nearly 30 million dollars of salary relief.

4. He's only under control for another year.

5. There is no window to sign him to an extension. No guarantee he doesn't bolt after 1 1/2 seasons.

6. The Jays already said they won't be able to sign him. That means it is in their best interests to maximize his value. Best time to do that is against the trade deadline when teams get more desperate. So there is incentive for them to do a deal.

The "untouchable" tag is just a part of the GM cat-and-mouse game. Just negotiating tactics.

Though declaring some players untouchable is perfectly reasonable. I don't blame the Dodgers for not wanting to include Kershaw, or the Cards for not wanting to include Rasmus. Those two are under team control for 5-6 more years.

Think about this. Kershaw and Rasmus are dirt cheap in baseball terms. Their salary allows them flexibility to add other parts. You'd be crazy to include either of them in a trade for a Pitcher a year and a half from free agency.

I like the idea of the White Sox going after Halladay, as well as going after Alex Rios. The deal would free up far more money for Toronto and it would fit Chicago's needs perfectly.

If the White Sox could land those two in exchange for Poreda, Richard, Viciedo, Flowers, Link and Martinez, that could potentially be a good deal for both sides.

The White Sox have an absolutely scary rotation with Halladay, Buehrle, Danks, Floyd and Contreras, and the black hole in center field is filled long term by the underrated Rios.

The Blue Jays would get two high upside hitters and two good lefty pitching prospects, a toolsy OF prospect in Martinez, and a solid reliever prospect in Link. And it frees up a ton of money between the $20M or so coming off the books for Halladay and the $60M or so that would be coming off the books from Rios.

That leaves the White Sox with essentially a farm system of Gordon Beckham, Jordan Danks, Jared Mitchell, John Shelby, Brent Morel, Dan Hudson and Dexter Carter, though.

Is that not enough talent going to Toronto, though?

YESSSS scribbletone ! !!!
Not the fastest team but guaranteed central title.

pods
alexi
rios
quentin
thome
dye
konerko
pierzynski
beckham

BEAST LINE UP!

^^^Haymaker, what are the Giants gonna send to Toronto?

I think the rumor was Sanchez + prospects for Doc and Rios. Don't see the Jays doing that unless the prospects are of the Bumgarner/Posey/Alderson/Villalona mold.

Would the Jays even trade Rios for Jonathan Sanchez?

Ok well how about the haul HAYMAKER, we have seen numoerous posts putting on a Halladay to the Giants for Posey, Alderson, Crawford, Sosa, and Noonan (combinations). Now you add Rios whom was going to be traded (possible numerous reports) for Linc, so how crazy does the haul get. Do they include Villalona, Gillespie, and maybe Kieschnick.....

If it is really going to be Rios and Halladay and B-SAB calls I am really thinking of the moon for both. Rios is not the contract they want to move.

Rios and Halladay

for

Bumgardner, Posey, Villalona, Noonan, and Crawford.

from deeselig: "Haymaker, what are the Giants gonna send to Toronto?"

I didn't hear anything that was said on WFAN, but my personal "first-stab" proposal was Jonathan Sanchez, Brandon Crawford, Tim Alderson, Conor Gillaspie and Angel Villanova going to Toronto for Halladay and Rios.

The Jays could put Sanchez in the rotation now, would get the left-side infield prospects they want, AND get $25-M in salary relief off of the $81-M they have committed in 2010.

Obviously, this lets the Giants keep Madison Bumgarner and Buster Posey... which might not fly with Toronto. Just depends on how much they crave the salary relief.

Well, duh. The Giants have to include one or two of Bumgarner/Posey/Alderson/Villalona at least or the Jays will laugh at the offer.

Posted by: scribbletone | July 17, 2009 at 01:31 PM

I know, but i'm just saying...cue the Giants fans crying that's way too much

YESSSS scribbletone ! !!!
Not the fastest team but guaranteed central title.

pods
alexi
rios
quentin
thome
dye
konerko
pierzynski
beckham

BEAST LINE UP!

Posted by: MetsWhiteSoxFan | July 17, 2009 at 01:21 PM

That leaves one problem you have an outfield with dye, pods, rios, quentin. Q, and pods start, along with dye. Thome and dye dh, or were you planning to put one of them at second base?

1) Over a year and a half it IS a huge concern. Especially when you're talking about the price in terms of prospects and money.

2) A stud position player influences the outcome of far more games than a stud SP. No question. Not even close if its a great defensive player. 150+ games is worth more than 30+. Unless that pitcher is from the deadball era and pitches everyday. There's no argument to be made here.

3) You're acting as if he's a free agent. He's not. It's not simply signing a guy for 2-28. If he was a free agent, sure, any team would pay that. The fact is its nearly 30 Million PLUS prime young talent.

Here's a question, how much is 30 million dollars worth in terms of prospects?

4) I'll give you this one, but just because of the compensation. Halladay does not guarantee a postseason appearance for 2 years. Also, they acquiring team could, in theory, trade him next year if they're out of it.

5) A window to sign and a year and a half to negotiate is comparing apples and oranges. A window to sign means a deal is contingent on him signing an extension. Guaranteed he won't leave after his current deal is up. A year and a half to negotiate doesn't mean you're going to sign him. It carries far more risk.

6) I'll look for the link if I have time. I believe there was a quote from JP not long ago saying they wouldn't be able to sign him after next year unless he takes a MASSIVE pay cut or gets injured.

Thank you kcatlantis. I was thinking the same thing. Maybe Thome can play third again.

It would be a good deal if Q ends up not being able to go and ends up out for the year. Then Rios could fit in outfield and if Dye is re-signed next year, he could DH and be a 4th OF.

"That leaves one problem you have an outfield with dye, pods, rios, quentin. Q, and pods start, along with dye. Thome and dye dh, or were you planning to put one of them at second base?"

You put Podsednik on the bench and have him replace Brian Anderson and/or DeWayne Wise as the outfielders on the bench.

Podsednik has been a pleasant surprise this year but he'd easily be their worst option among Pods/Dye/Quentin/Rios.

"If indeed the White Sox are going after Halladay, it would have behooved them to not trade Brandon Allen for Tony Frickin Pena, and instead used him for this trade."

I actually thought that the Pena trade was a good move by Kenny Williams.

It gives the White Sox another controllable, and good, reliever to fill out the bullpen, ending the experiments with Gobble/Logan/Wassermann types.

Pena has shown a consistent ability to avoid home runs, an important skill for relievers, and he's improved his ability to induce ground balls. He was a workhorse in Arizona, pitching 158 innings in 2007-2008, and he has a great fastball/slider combo and he can touch 97. He's a really solid reliever, he posted a 3.42 FIP last year and he has a 3.76 mark this season.

Brandon Allen is a good prospect, but you have to give up something to land an asset like Pena, and I think that the cost was pretty reasonable.

There are questions about whether Allen has enough raw power to be better than average at first base, the only position that he can really play. He could definitely end up being a good player down the road, but he doesn't look like any sort of future star and the White Sox are likely set at first base long term with Tyler Flowers or Dayan Viciedo, considering that it's not likely that they stay at their current positions.

yup, i screwed up the line up... no 2B in there....
unless podsednik can play 2nd ha. that'd be perfect.

dye plays first, thome DHs and konerko catches ha(used to a be catcher in college)

joking.

maybe KW makes a move for a 3b/2b/lead-off

BTW - it's nice to have a good, non-flame war baseball debate.

- Or free up money elseware. Really, they are hoping to unload one of the big contract, and that is just to free up some flexibility. They don’t need to trade anyone, and it is continually said that he quite likely doesn’t get dealt. If he doesn’t, the DP compensation means they are still rewarded, and they can trade him in the offseason or mid-season next year as well. There is just nothing, anywhere, pointing to them needing to trade him right now.

Posted by: SuzysMan | July 17, 2009 at 02:18 PM
------------------

I sort of disagree. The Jays can absolutely decide to trade him during the off-season or sometime during the 2010 season but the return will be nowhere near what it would be if he were traded now. Right now contending teams are desperate to get someone now to make a 2009 playoff run. Some teams might be desperate enough to overpay. However, if the Jays wait until the offseason then they will be dealing free from duress of a "win now" attitude and their clarity might diminish what they might be willing to part with. Plus guys who are not currently on the block (Peavy, Oswalt, Webb, etc) might join available FA like Bedard, Lackey, etc. Teams might be more willing to buy a SP rather than sell the farm to get 1 year of Halladay. So much can happen to change the landscape of the market from now compared to the offseason.

Plus, let's pretend that Halladay were a FA this year as opposed to 2011. If the season ended now the Mets would be a team that would a) Have interest in Halladay b) Have enough money coming off the books (about $50 mil) to extend a major deal to Halladay c) Would have a draft protected pick meaning that they could sign a Type A FA and not lose a pick. That would mean that the Jays would only receive a comp pick and, at best, would be choosing at #31 which is not exactly creme of the crop.

So a lot of things can happen that would not be in the Jays best interest. Right now, they have more control over their own fat (with regards to dealing Halladay) than they would at any other time after the deadline.

The point is that there is nothing saying they have to trade him now, and there are tons of options available to them.

Posted by: SuzysMan | July 17, 2009 at 02:59 PM
---

Yes, you are stating the obvious. We all know that the Jays don't "HAVE TO" trade Halladay. Obviously, it's their preferred intent to do so, if they can get a great return on him. Otherwise, why publicly state that you're open for business. However, common sense says the shorter the time a team has Halladay for then the less that perspective team would be willing to give up to acquire him. You already have teams such as the Yanks and Red Sox that have infered they would not be interested in him if they couldn't talk of an extension 1st.

In the offseason, I imagine Halladay would be more inclined to allow discussions of an extension to take place (as opposed to doing it now where it might be a distraction). "IF" his situation turns into that of Johan Santana's, then you can pretty much narrow down who will be in the runnings to trade for him AND grant him a huge dollar extension. That means teams like the Brewers, Rockies, Rangers and maybe the Cardinals are out of the picture.

Plain and simple you can brake down the Jays windo to deal into these intervals:

-Before the 09 trade deadline
-Before 2010 ST
-Before the 2010 trade deadline.

Once each interval passes his value to a perspective team and the haul which he might bring back diminishes greatly. And if he walks as a FA you can't compare getting 1 or MAYBE 2 1st round picks to getting bonafide PROVEN prospects that have already been mentioned by muyself and others. There's not even a guarantee that the Jays will get more than one 1st rnd pick at all (see Milwaukee Brewers/Sabathia compensation).

This could go on for days. I'll leave it at this:

Best case scenario, the Jays get a package on par with what the Rangers got for Tex. That's best case. They wont do better, and will probably get a package less than that.

Argue if you will. We'll find out if/when he gets dealt.

Ok well how about the haul HAYMAKER, we have seen numoerous posts putting on a Halladay to the Giants for Posey, Alderson, Crawford, Sosa, and Noonan (combinations). Now you add Rios whom was going to be traded (possible numerous reports) for Linc, so how crazy does the haul get. Do they include Villalona, Gillespie, and maybe Kieschnick.....

If it is really going to be Rios and Halladay and B-SAB calls I am really thinking of the moon for both. Rios is not the contract they want to move.

Rios and Halladay

for

Bumgardner, Posey, Villalona, Noonan, and Crawford.

Posted by: theJonathan | July 17, 2009 at 01:31 PM

I was thinking a package along the same lines (though i dont know much outside bum, posey, villalona, and Alderson for the Giants), but I would have thought Posey was completely off limits in any trade talks?

I suggested something starting with Bumgarner, Villalona, and a few other B and C prospects for Halladay and Rios earlier in the other Halladay topic, and I expected Alderson wouldn't go because I didn't think any Giants fan would want to trade their top 2 pitching prosepcts, and Posey wouldn't go because he has been amazingly good (like Wieters-Lite in the minors) and could very well be the catcher for the MLB Giants next year.

"two things. That would cost two of their top prospects, like Posey+. Also, I know they have the new contract, but on Mike and Mike this morning, it was said they have very little money to spend."

This is incorrect. The Giants won't part with Bumgarner, however they would part with Posey for the right deal (I personally don't want Halladay, would rather pursue AGon), and any other prospect like Alderson, Noonan, Sosa, Crawford etc.

Also please don't listen to anything that Mike and Mike say. Those guys are utter morons. The Giants have a lot of money to spend. They have been one of the top teams in attendance and merchandise sales over the last 7 years. They just signed a massive contract with comcast, and they have their hands in a development project right around the park. The Giants payroll is down from where it has been in the past few years. The Giants can spend money on par with any team in baseball besides the Yankees.