Discussion: Adrian Beltre

Last month, MLBTR's Ben Nicholson-Smith examined some potential suitors for Adrian Beltre's services this offseason.  The 31-year-old should have no shortage of opportunities coming his way this winter after his resurgent 2010 campaign in Boston.  It seemed unlikely before this season that the former Dodger and Mariner would reach the necessary 640 plate appearances to activate a $10MM player option for 2011, writes Daniel Barbarisi of The Providence Journal, but with a month to go and just over 100 plate appearances needed, it now seems probable.

Many people in the baseball world, including Buster Olney of ESPN (via Twitter), believe that the Scott Boras client will decline the player option without much thought.   After all, Beltre could land a three- or four-year deal on the open market this winter.  Our own Tim Dierkes writes that the veteran may start the bidding at about $50MM over four years.

Will the third baseman rake in more than $10MM per season on a multi-year deal?

Click here to take the poll, and here to view the results.

91 Responses to Discussion: Adrian Beltre Leave a Reply

  1. jwredsox 5 years ago

    He got 10mil this year after a terrible stint with the M’s. He can easily get atleast 2 years at 10mil+ per.

    • No, he got 5m guaranteed…I promise he wouldn’t have come close to the PA’s if he weren’t performing well.

      • start_wearing_purple 5 years ago

        No actually it was $9M plus a $1M buyout, which has me confused since it’s a players option. Check Cot’s.

        • Ahh, my mistake…for whatever reason I was thinking both years had incentives..

          The $1M buyout is to protect the Red Sox. The line of thinking was that if he didn’t reach the 640 PA’s, chances are he underperformed and would exercise his 5m player option. If he exercised it, the Sox could buy it out for $1M.

  2. Dave_Gershman 5 years ago

    I think he’s definetly going to decline his option and sign at least a 4-5 50-60MM deal. I like the Red Sox and Tigers as potential suitors in that order. Maybe the Jays.

    • jwredsox 5 years ago

      maybe Athletics too. Or Twins as a dark horse.

      • Dave_Gershman 5 years ago

        If he didn’t sign what the A’s gave him last year, I don’t see why he would this year…And I was thinking the Twins, but Danny Valencia has really emerged. Maybe Beltre to the Twins.

        • jwredsox 5 years ago

          The A’s made that offer early in FA when he was still aiming for a huge contract.

          • Dave_Gershman 5 years ago


          • jwredsox 5 years ago

            Then my memory is incorrect. My bad lol

          • Dave_Gershman 5 years ago

            My bad. I didn’t mean to sound like a jerk by saying no like that. But I think he just wanted a contender over the years. Want to check it out and let me know?

          • 0bsessions 5 years ago

            He eventually said it was about going to a contender, but early reports indicated that the offer from Oakland was something to the tune of 3 years at $20-25 million as I recall. He and Boras figured (Entirely correctly) that he’d be better off going to a reputed hitters’ park to rebuild his value rather than sign a low money contract that’d take him to his mid-thirties. Now he stands to potentially make double what the A’s offered him.

    • vtadave 5 years ago

      $60 million? I don’t know…seems a bit steep, but 4/40 looks reasonable, though we’ll have to see how the market shapes up. Love to see my Dodgers jettison Casey Blake (nice beard, poor bat) and bring Beltre back. Of course that assumes the club has new ownership by then.

      • thegrayrace 5 years ago

        As much as I’d love Beltre back, I doubt that happens. But we need to do SOMETHING about 3B.

        My thought it bring over Aramis Ramirez. He’s had a down year, but he’s still 5 years younger than Blake and has 20 HRs this season. I could see him rebound to his ’07-’08 numbers. Worth a shot, and should be much cheaper than Beltre.

    • jphenix2002 5 years ago

      I think Detroit will make a hard run at Beltre as well

    • Encarnacion's Parrot 5 years ago

      If Beltre were a B-type free agent I’d fully expect the Jays to be on that, but given the fact that Beltre is putting up beastly numbers for a team with a good OBP, I wouldn’t expect those same numbers on a Jays ‘free swinging’ team.

      I also wouldn’t expect Anthopolous to give up the draft pick. But you never know, right?

      • Dave_Gershman 5 years ago

        Well the Jays might be protected in the top 16. If so, it wouldn’t matter.

      • moonraker45 5 years ago

        Who leads of though if jays get beltre? Outfield would be Bautista-Wells-Snider..
        Lind-Hill-Esco-Beltre…. i Guess maybe a lead off DH? or trade hill and perhaps lead off Emaus.

        • Encarnacion's Parrot 5 years ago

          Why not have Encarnacion lead off?

          This is how the Jays are kinda shafted. They have no room for a legit leadoff guy no matter what for 2011. My guess is Yunel, unless something drastic happens.

          • Because usually teams want a guy who can get on base to lead off, not a pile of crap like Encarnacion (career .338 OBP)?

          • moonraker45 5 years ago

            EE aka the 2nd slowest guy on the team??? Actually he could be first…Molina does have a stolen base this year.

          • Encarnacion's Parrot 5 years ago

            Clearly you and Roy didn’t notice the tongue-in-cheek.
            My point is why talk about not having a legit lead off hitter with Beltre at 3B when you already have E5. Having either one there doesn’t change the fact that the team, right now, is stacked with no speed. You’re looking at a line-up of:

            Bautista RF
            Wells CF
            Snider LF
            E5 3B
            Escobar SS
            Hill 2B
            Lind 1B
            DH ?
            C Arencibia and Molina

            That’s not a batting order btw, just a list of position players.

          • moonraker45 5 years ago

            sorry, its the net Can’t detect sarcasm… thats a valid point. the point I’m making is essentially your signing a very good player, but taking up another position to which a lead off batter cant be plugged in.. I mean would they not be better off getting Emaus up and playing 3rd ( or 2nd, and moving hill to third) and leading him off?

            I just have a bad feeling that they are going to Dh their lead off batter next year…

          • Encarnacion's Parrot 5 years ago

            It’s cool, most people can’t tell when a person is being serious or not.

            The only option I see for the Jays is move Bautista to 3B (his UZR/150 is below average in most positions anyways), and find speed in the FA pool for the OF – Crawford it would seem is the logical choice. A lot of the problems will be solved when Wells is gone.

  3. start_wearing_purple 5 years ago

    Considering the cupboard is bare for the Sox in the third base department next year I wouldn’t be surprised to see them spend to keep him. I know he wants to be on the West Coast, but since when do Boras clients not accept the top offer?

    • johnsilver 5 years ago

      Still can’t see Epstein getting into any protracted negotiations that drag very far past the winter meetings with him/Boras. Think that Epstein is going to make a decent initial offer, then negotiate for a short time after that and just move on if a deal cannot be struck.

      Youk has already said he would be glad to move back over to 3B next season and fill in for a year, then just find a 1B for a year via trade or FA.

      Might lose an excellent defensive 1B, but better than having entire off season plans thrown out the window while Boras plays one of his bidding games and Beltre this off season is one of his better clients, something he just may try to do.

  4. Sniderlover 5 years ago

    Wasn’t he offered 3yr/24 mil contract from the Phillies despite coming of a bad season.

    I think he’ll sign for 4yr/48 mil type contract.

    • $1529282 5 years ago

      The Phillies and A’s both offered him 3/24 and he declined both offers.

  5. Is anyone else concerned that he seems to only have career years when he’s playing for a new contract?

    • huskydon 5 years ago

      His last year with the Mariners wasn’t quite a career year.

      • I think that he may not have fully recovered from shoulder surgery the previous summer. Also, he had a bloody testicle (not messing around here) in August 2009 that kept him out for awhile.

  6. Beltre to the Twins sounds great, but they have Danny Valencia who’s batting like .325

  7. quintjs 5 years ago

    Red Sox, A’s, Tigers, – what about the Braves? you can’t trust Chipper at all at this point.

    But I think it would have to be a 2 horse race, Tigers Red Sox, not just because of the obvious need, but after the Safeco experiece, I can’t see Beltre going to a team like the A’s in that ballpark.

  8. Potrzeba 5 years ago

    I don’t want to see Boston over pay for beltre. I say Boston walks. He’s 31 and he’s probably not gunna hit like this again.

  9. Potrzeba 5 years ago

    The royals could sure use him.

  10. dickylarue 5 years ago

    I see him getting a minimum of 3 years for 36 million with an easily obtained option year to push it closer to 4 years and 50 million.

    If you look at the depth charts on most major league teams, 3b is a very thin position.

    Beltre gives you defense and offense and allows the team to gain a positional advantage over most competition.

    5 for 60 only happens if some owner gets dumb.

    But he will definitely get 3 years, probably 4 in the end and the money will be a lot more than 10 million per year.

  11. YanksFanSince78 5 years ago

    I wonder if the Yanks might be bold and tempted to sign Beltre this winter and move Arod to DH full-time? That would squeeze Posada out of some at bats and pretty much mean they would have to trade Jesus Moreno unless they feel that he can catch 120 games and not be a complete hack behind the plate. That would mean Beltre at 3rd, Arod at DH and Posada/Cervellin at C for 2011 and Montero replacing Posada once his contract expires after 2012. It would certainly improve the teams defense and make having Jeter at SS for another 4 mears more tolerable.

    • YanksFanSince78 5 years ago

      That would also mean Montero would have to spend the majority of 2011 at AAA again until either Posada or Cervelli goes on the DL.

    • quintjs 5 years ago

      It crossed my mind too, but once you have Arod at DH, you are never moving him off it, and that is a LONG time Arod has left on his contract, and he won’t be happy about it.

      I think the Yankees would want to get the DH spot open for a rolling rest rotation of Posada, A-Rod, Jeter etc.

    • johnsmith4 5 years ago

      Hmmm….you might be on to something given their past willingness to trade Montero for Lee.

  12. YanksFanSince78 5 years ago

    Players coming off the books:

    Vmart @ 7 mil
    Lowell @ 12 mil
    Beltre @ 9 mil (assume Beltre declines palyer option).
    Hall @ 1.25 mil (M’s paid $7.5 of his salary)
    Varitek @ 3 mil
    Okajima @ 2.75 mil

    Net off: $35 mil approx.

    Assuming they pick up Ortiz’ option that puts them around $133 mil

    Still need to replace: Starting C, Starting 3B and let’s assume they use in-house minor league options to fill the back up roles.

    Increases/Decreases of non-arbitration players:

    Lackey from 18 to 15.5= -2.5 mil
    Beckett from 12 to 15.75= +3.75 mil
    Youks from 9 to 12 mil= +3 mil
    Dice K from 8 to 10 mil= +2 mil
    Lester from 3.75 mil to 5.75 mil= +2 mil
    Pedroia from 3.5 to 5.5 mil= +2 il
    Wakefield from 3.5 to 1.5 mil= -2 mil

    That’s a net increase of $8.25 mil bring the base to $141 mil

    Arbitration players and probable extensions to:


    Let’s say they get an extra…..$6 mil?

    That brings the working base to $147 before they sign anyone else or replace departed players.

    There top targets figure to be a 1b or 3B and a C. I would say Carlos Pena or Adrian Beltre would address the 1b/3b needs and Victor Martinez is the best option at C. Maybe John Buck is a cheaper short term option over VMart. Figure Pena or Beltre would cost you at least 10-13 mil per and Vmart about the same. So if they were successful in getting 2 of the 3 then that adds about another $25 mil to the payroll.

    That bring you up to $172 mil and you haven’t really improved the team as much as you’ve simply replaced players you had last year.

    The Red Sox can’t really afford to make any major trades using prospects as most of the elite prospects had off years….

    Casey Kelly- 5.31 ERA in 95 IP @ AA

    Ryan Westmoreland-Missed all of 2010 w/ a major health issue.

    Junichi Tazawa- Missed all of 2010 w/ an injury

    Josh Reddick- .267/.304 w/ 17 hrs @ AAA. Did have a strong 2nd half .363/.385 w/ 10 hrs but is he still considered elite?

    Lars Anderson- .265/.345 w/ 10 hrs @ AAA w/ 105 ko in 396 AB’s. Not really elite.

    Stolmy Pimentel- 4.18 ERA in 122 IP @ A+ and a mediocre 94/40 ko/bb ratio.

    Anthony Rizzo- Had great power numbers @ AA (29 dbls and 18 hrs) but his other numbers .257/.324 w/ 94 ko in 400 Ab are kind of suspect. But he’s young at 21.

    Derek Gibson-.231/.321 w/ 100 k’s in 489 AB @ low A ball. Great speed but still suspect.

    Ryan kalish- Has probably performed the best of any of their top 10 guys @ .294/.382 w/ 13 hrs and 25 SB between AA/AAA.

    Michael Bowden- @ 24 he’s yet to really distinguish himself as a mlb front end guy. he did have decent #’s at AAA (3.56 ERA in 103 IP) but the Sox never thought to use him with Beckett, Buchholz and Dice K all spending some time on the DL at some point this year.

    Sox have Fuentes and Iglesias in the lower ranks and Exposito would probably ranks as a top 5 guy in the org rankings. Yamaico Navarro is a decent prospect as well. Overall the Sox still have a great system and have probably reloaded in the 2009 and 2010 drafts w/ guys I don’t know about but do they have enough blue chip guys to trade for a Fielder or Gonzales if they hit the market this winter? Kelly is still a legit prospect but can he really center a deal with the kind of year he just had?

    If the Sox don’t have the chips to land a stud power bat then do they spend about what they spent last year and just hope that a healthy and or improved 2011 by Beckett, Dice K, Youks, Pedroia, Ellsbury and Cameron is enough to contend? What do you guys think? Are guys like Dice K, Drew or Cameron even tradeable considering their contracts and/or age w/ eating more than 50% of what’s owed? Is simply resigning Vmart, Beltre and Ortiz enough?

    • quintjs 5 years ago

      Thats some decent reasoning, but you have missed a few things.

      Though Buchholz has been around forever, he isn’t arb eligable because this is his first full year, he hasn’t got enough service time.

      Second, I think they will decline the Ortiz option and sign him for 2 years at say 15million total.

      Third – while Lars Anderson’s value is just dead, I don’t think Kelly or Reddick have lost that much, Kelly is young for that competition and I think people realise that, but some adversity is a good thing, Reddick really wasn’t a top prospect in the mold of Kalish or Westmoreland. Anyway Gonzalez won’t be available and the Sox won’t trade top prosects for 1 year of Fielder.

      But mainly, you forgot the portion of the Red Sox budget that isn’t used for current players – I am talking about 8million for Hermida, Lugo, Bonser etc (- the brewers paying for most of Hall)

      Put it this way, Cots has the Red Sox payroll next year at 100millionm lets say 120 for the Sox to keep Papelbon and Salty and the non-arb eligable players and all the Sox need to add a C, DH, a 3B (or 1B with Youkilis moving) and some bullpen help.

      To me, they have plenty of money to spend.

      And it should be noted, the Red Sox payroll limit isn’t value like 160million per year, its the Salary cap figure of that particular year, and because Youk’s, Pedroia and Lesters, Dice-K contracts are team friendly, the actual annual value used for the Sox’s payroll for the salary cap next year is actually less than what they are paid.

      Martinez and Salty at C
      Youk 1B, Pedroia 2nd, Beltre 3rd, Scut SS, Lowrie INF
      Ellsbury, Cameron, Kalish, Drew, Nava/ Reddick
      Ortiz DH
      same SP, and hopefully a new reliever or too.

      What the Sox needed to complete this year YanksFan was another reliever or too and some health. They have had some surprisingly good backups in Nava/ Kalish, Lowrie, Mcdonald. I personally want to see Kalish or Reddick being given a full go in LF.

      Dice-K is hit and miss but points up valuable numbers, if he wasn’t for his background, the hype and the posting fee, he would be considered a valuable asset as a #3/4 pitcher.
      Drew may be slightly overpaid but he is pretty consistent, decent OBP, some HR, would be a great Outfielder/ DH for a team like Tampa, but plenty of other teams around the NL and AL would be interested for 1 year.
      Cameron if healthy is valuable too, he is the one of most concern because you don’t know about health.

    • jwredsox 5 years ago

      It took Lars 2 years to figure out AA so I don’t think the jury is out on him at this point based on his AAA stats. Plus he is only 22 (23 later this month) so he is still young. And Reddick was never considered elite. But an otherwise great post. And if they can get to 85 wins with all of those injuries I think they should be able to contend if they are healthier next year. Especially if the Rays take a step back after losing CC and Pena.

    • 0bsessions 5 years ago

      There is no earthly way that the Sox pick up Ortiz’s option. No one is going to pay him even half that on the free agent market. You’re also missing out on $9 million coming off the books for Lugo, plus a million for Wagner’s buyout. All told, the Sox have about $70 million coming off the books going into 2011. That’s plenty of room to manuever.

      • BoSoXaddict 5 years ago

        You don’t think there’s a team out there that would pay $6.25 million for David Ortiz to be their DH? I do. Nevertheless, I feel pretty certain that the Sox will decline the option and try to sign him to a 2 year deal for btwn 12 and 15 mil.

    • boston3party123 5 years ago

      Bro how long did that take u to write lol

    • Potrzeba 5 years ago

      I wish the tigers would trade us miguel cabrera, but maybe like a james loney, matt kemp, andre either would be avalible this offseason. i wouldnt mine seeing elsbury, papelbon traded. maybe papelbon to the braves for mike minor. what other power bats r out there?

      • BoSoXaddict 5 years ago

        Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe came up with this crazy trade with the Dodgers: Dice-K, Papelbon & Ellsbury for Martin, Kemp & Broxton. Would never happen but not a terrible idea..

  13. Great posts, both of you…

    While I would love to see Kalish get the full time job at LF, I don’t think he’s ready. He’s great defensively, probably the best arm we’ve had in the OF in a long time, but he’s just not patient enough at the plate. He walked for his 5th time last night on a pitch that could’ve been called a strike. I think the Sox will stand pat with their OF unless someone blows them away with an offer for Ellsbury. He’s due for a payday soon, however, and he’s a Boras client so I doubt he’ll get much interest.

    Like I’ve said in other posts, I don’t think the Sox have any choice but to sign Beltre to a 3-4 year deal. They will probably end up overpaying for him, but I don’t seem a viable replacement that won’t cost them in prospects. Theo has a history of hording, perhaps overvaluing, his prospects. I don’t see him trading any of them during the offseason in fear that a guy like AGon will become available.

    I could definitely see the Sox making a play for Fielder. As much as people try to diminish his value, acquiring him would be like turning the clock back on Ortiz. At 26 years old, Theo could essentially fill the DH role for years to come. If they sign Fielder and AGon becomes available (not saying he will, it’s a big IF) they would have that 1-2 punch they’ve been missing for the past couple years. I think that possibility is enough to force Theo to over-extend for him. Also, if they sign Fielder they wouldn’t necessarily have to resign Beltre. They could move Youk to 3rd and let Fielder attempt to play 1B.

    • jwredsox 5 years ago

      I love Kalish (though I do this he isn’t ready for full time) but I find it funny how Red Sox fans (not you in particular) like Kalish but dislike Drew. Kalish pretty much projects to be a JD Drew type player. 5 tools, low avg, high OBP, with decent power and speed, great glove, and cannon arm.

      • I agree, I’m not a Drew hater by any means. He is probably the most frustrating player for me to watch due to his lack of emotion, but he’s scary consistent. He always gives a professional at bat and if the season ended today he’d likely win a gold glove. His defense is very, very underrated. He is having an off-season offensively but has more than made up for it with his glove.

    • 0bsessions 5 years ago

      “probably the best arm we’ve had in the OF in a long time”

      People seem to forget the absolute cannon Manny had. He was an overall poor fielder, but his arm was incredibly good. A lot of people think his arm is the only thing that kept Lofton at third in the ’07 ALCS (I’ve heard Skinner use that as his rationale for giving the hold sign).

      • Manny did not have a cannon. He benefited from hard hit balls off the wall. He was quick to get the ball out of his glove, but that’s it.

  14. hawkny1 5 years ago

    Sox will probably sign Beltre, 3yrs/33M w/mutual option for 4th. Beltre like playing in Boston. Ortiz will take a 50% salary reduction, 2yrs/12M, V-mart will stay, 3yrs/24M, Buchholz will be extended 3yrs/20M, Cameron will retire, Theo will bring in 2 relievers, 1 with ability to close. Say goodbye to Cash, Navarro, Wakefield, Hall, Lowell, Patterson, Okajima, Manual and Atkinson

    • It_Is_What_It_Is_Ormaybenot 5 years ago

      If they could get the players for those numbers then absolutely you sign them, but I don’t think you get V-Mart adn Beltre for those numbers, and it’s to high for Bucholtz he isn’t even arb elig. this year…

      • hawkny1 5 years ago

        How is going to pay more?  TEE?  Not hardly!  Pedroia and Youk were locked up before their arb years, the same will happen with Clay…for about the same money..

    • Tigers will easily spend more than 3ys/24M to get VMart. And depending on whether or not the Tigers can get Carl Crawford I think that the Tigers will also give Beltre more that 11M per.

      • hawkny1 5 years ago

        Maybe, maybe not.  V-mart will be 32 in December.  He may have 1 or 2 more decent years behind the plate, tops, before his legs go, along with his arm. Otherwise he is a PT DH/1B @ say, 4/$40 in Detroit?

        • jwredsox 5 years ago

          any proof that V-Mart’s legs will go after 1-2 years?

      • hawkny1 5 years ago

        As for Beltre, lets not forget that Tiger stadium is the largest park in MLB.  Beltre’s swing is not suited for big parks (note his experience in Seattle).  On the other hand, he is a masher at Fenway and the Sox are perennial contenders for the playoffs.  Not so with the Tigers..

        • alphabet_soup5 5 years ago

          Detroit is still a contender, just not as strong of one as the Red Sox are. Also Beltre could hit in front of Miguel Cabrera, he wouldn’t have a problem hitting in any park with that protection.

          • hawkny1 5 years ago

            Well, in 2010, the Red Sox are 10 games up on the Tigers with 30 or so games to go.  This is speculation mind you, but…….  Beltre would have a hard time reaching the fences 10 times in an 81 game schedule at Commercia Park..  with or without Cabrera batting 4th.

    • The_Silver_Stacker 5 years ago

      beltre will get alot more than 3yrs/33m – im not sure about the years, i think he will get a 50 m deal, v-mart will get more than 8m a year, and bucholz will not accept a 3yr/20m deal not a chance

  15. Guest 5 years ago

    The Sox have to sign Beltre (unless they get Prince Fielder or Adrian Gonzo at first and move Youk to third)
    He had solid road numbers from 2007-2009 in Seattle
    and 24 HR and 94 RBI per 575 AB on the road, during that time period.

    my only point is, Seattle sucks. strangely enough, Beltre was beyond terrible at Fenway before coming to Boston…
    Anyway Beltre’s hitting coupled with his terrific defence is definitely worth 4 year/50m or more.

  16. SoxFan99 5 years ago

    No one see’s 1.Scutero SS 2.Pedrioa 2B 3.Prince/Gonzalez DH 4.Youkils 1B 5.Crawford/Worth/Dunn LF 6.Beltre 3B 7.Martinez C 8.Drew RF Kalish CF Bench Saltalamacchia, Lowrie, Hall, Cameron No one see’s that? Imo I think they can trade for Prince/Gonzalez and sign a top OF free agent

  17. boston3party123 5 years ago

    SIGN BELTRE BACK PLEASE!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  18. They do have alot of money coming off the books I kinda would think buck would be better at catcher but i think beltre will resign.though i think crawford will go to detroit i think if cameron would retire or ellsbury is traded they could have him in lf and either cam or ells in center.But like detroit who has alot of money coming off the books they have options i doubt adrian or prince would be coming i think more of a werth or crawford or trade for a LF is more likely with buck/vmart plus beltre.and i think they should go after soriano though i think they rays would miss him the most they have guys to replace cc and pena but soriano its tough cuz he is doing so well in a tough division

  19. They do have alot of money coming off the books I kinda would think buck would be better at catcher but i think beltre will resign.though i think crawford will go to detroit i think if cameron would retire or ellsbury is traded they could have him in lf and either cam or ells in center.But like detroit who has alot of money coming off the books they have options i doubt adrian or prince would be coming i think more of a werth or crawford or trade for a LF is more likely with buck/vmart plus beltre.and i think they should go after soriano though i think they rays would miss him the most they have guys to replace cc and pena but soriano its tough cuz he is doing so well in a tough division

  20. How sure are we that Youkilis can handle 3B well? I’m asking honestly here. As hard it is to believe, he has never spent a full year in the majors at 3B and he posted a slightly negative UZR in almost 500 innings in 2009. I know UZR isn’t everything and I don’t doubt that he could be average there but being a full-time major league 3B for the first time at age 32 doesn’t instill a lot of confidence in me.

    Barring a surprise trade for a stud 1B (I personally don’t think A-Gon is going anywhere), I think the Red Sox will make an honest (if not aggressive) attempt to resign Adrian Beltre. The market has been so weird the last couple years so I can’t make a prediction about a dollar amount but I think the chances of Beltre returning are at least pretty good. If he doesn’t come back, it won’t be for Theo’s lack of trying.

    Honestly, I’m asking. What are good plan Bs for the Red Sox, at both 3B and 1B? Shifting Youkilis to 3B means they have to replace him at 1B and I don’t see anybody better than Carlos Pena that’s available. I suppose Aramis Ramirez would be a nice addition but considering his total skill set and his value to the Sox, I think the best course of action will be to resign Beltre.

    I’m a little biased, though, because I absolutely love what Beltre has brought to the team this year, and he’s been flat-out fun to watch. The 2011 Red Sox need him.

  21. YanksFanSince78 5 years ago

    Earlier when I referenced the kind of year that the top 10 prospects (according to fangraphs and John Sickels) it wasn’t to say that they were not still top prospects but I think we all would agree that the “shine” has worn off on some of them and while Kelly is still a top 50 prospect his value has changed based off of his 2010 struggles. I think that has to make sense. So while he still has value an IMAGINARY trade of Kelly + Moreland + ????? may not draw the same interest to get an Agon or Fielder that it would’ve last year. They almost certainly would have to add more to it or maybe substitute Fuentes or Iglesias for someone to make it happen. The way Theo values his prospects I can’t see him selling low on anyone or adding more to weaken the system. but who knows….

    • SoxFan99 5 years ago

      Kelly, Westmoreland and Iglesias!?!? That woudlnt happen in a million years. You must not know the Red Sox minor league system that good. Gonzalez/Fielder have one more year left on there contracts so there value is way less then last year. The Padres/Brewers could get Ellsbury/Bowden/Anderson/Brown for him. (the way theo values his prospects) well of corse he is gonna value them, he is not dumb enough to trade 3 of his best prospects for a guy with one year left on his contract!

    • You make good points in that Theo perhaps overvalues his prospects but I’d like to say a couple things.

      1) Casey Kelly is STUPID young for his league (20 years old in the AA EL) and I think that has to be taken into account, especially since he’s still learning to pitch. Maybe the shiny new car smell has worn off but he’s still a damn good prospect that I’m sure most teams would love to have.

      2) The Red Sox REALLY loaded up in the draft this year, getting at least 5 quality prospects by displaying a willingness to spend. This would help take the sting out of the guys Theo may eventually trade.

      3) The Red Sox have a good chance to do the same thing in next year’s draft. Let’s assume that Beltre, V-Mart and Ortiz sign elsewhere. That’s 6 draft picks right there. Of course, they may have as little as the 1 they already have but they’ll most likely have at least 3.

      4) Don’t forget that it didn’t take much to get Jason Bay, Victor Martinez or Eric Gagne. Of course, they had to give up Manny and pay the rest of his money but I think it’s safe to say the Red Sox don’t miss the likes of Justin Masterson and Craig Hanson. This is not to say future trades will be similar but guys like Jed Lowrie and Ryan Kallish project to be averagish major leaguers whom a lot of teams could use. They could be packaged with C/B prospects to address a need. And what if they decide to sign Carl Crawford? Perhaps a long shot but all of a sudden, Jacoby Ellsbury sure looks expendable, and he could fetch a lot.

      I guess my point is that while, yes, maybe the struggles of guys like Kelly and Lars Anderson and the unfortunate injury to Westmoreland seems that Theo doesn’t have a lot of tradable prospects but the system is relatively loaded with bodies other teams could use, with more bodies coming up to replace them.

      Having said that, I don’t see Kelly and Westmoreland going anywhere, as they are guys the Sox have a lot invested in. Ditto Iglesias, whom they paid $8M to. I see them as project players they don’t want to give up on, at least not yet. Also, next year’s draft may be the last chance to load up the system, as it’s very possible the new CBA will abolish compensatory picks, so perhaps Theo would be right to hoard prospects like they’re going out of style.

      But while Theo definitely covets the guys in his system, his hand may be forced if Beltre can’t be re-signed and other needs arise. Right now, I’m sure he’s very content to sit on all those guys but the situation will look very different months from now.

      • jwredsox 5 years ago

        Kalish doesn’t project to be an average player. He has the makings of a JD Drew type player with above average speed and power, high OBP, decent average, with good to great defense with an above average throwing arm. But I agree with the rest of your post.

  22. BoSoXaddict 5 years ago

    Can people please stop mentioning Ryan Westmoreland’s name in potential trade scenarios? The kid had brain surgery and while possible, it’s far from a sure thing that he is ever going to even return to professional baseball.

  23. JDortmunder 5 years ago

    Nobody has factored Beltre’s West Coast preference. His family didn’t come to Boston apparently. He has said favorable and unfavorable things about this market.
    I think the FO has a line they won’t cross and Boras will get someone to betterdeal the RS.
    This is going to be a very undecided off-season and no scenario would surprise me. It could be the all three returning or none.

  24. mrmet128 5 years ago

    Yeah, he’ll probably get 10mil per for around 4-5 years. I know he’s raked this year, but that deal would be a bad one eventually.

  25. angel31 5 years ago

    everybody is forgeting the angels bidding for beltre and crawford

  26. angel31 5 years ago

    everybody is forgeting the angels bidding for beltre and crawford

  27. angel31 5 years ago

    everybody is forgeting the angels bidding for beltre and crawford

  28. Dave_Gershman 5 years ago

    just a possible dark horse. I bet your tigers will make a play.

  29. jwredsox 5 years ago

    I didn’t think you sounded like a jerk haha.

  30. PTBeaneNL 5 years ago

    nay, unless i missed your sarcasm, but oakland is a true pitcher’s park: link to parkfactors.com

  31. baseballdude 5 years ago

    is crawford a boras client?? if so it will improve the chances of the tigers getting him.

  32. 0bsessions 5 years ago

    Why is there ANYONE, much less TWO people who think that there is any such thing as a Boras/Anyone relationship? Dude will go where the money is every. single. time. Just because the Tigers have a few Boras clients, doesn’t mean they’re going to have any better shot at a Boras client than anyone else, it’s COMPLETELY against his M.O.

    Saying the Tigers’ chances of getting a guy because he’s a Boras client is as ridiculous as the people saying the Sox would never pursue another Boras client again after the Teixeira thing (By my count, they’ve signed at least two since then).

  33. Generally agree. I will say that the Red Sox do know how to handle Boras, though I can’t say if they can do so better than any other team. This was pre-Teixeira but they handled the Daisuke negotiations very well because they knew he had no leverage if he wanted to play Major League Baseball. At 6/$52, they got him for well below market value, not counting the posting fee, which Boras didn’t see a penny of in commission.

  34. Generally agree. I will say that the Red Sox do know how to handle Boras, though I can’t say if they can do so better than any other team. This was pre-Teixeira but they handled the Daisuke negotiations very well because they knew he had no leverage if he wanted to play Major League Baseball. At 6/$52, they got him for well below market value, not counting the posting fee, which Boras didn’t see a penny of in commission.

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