Amaro Talks Phillies Offseason

Phillies GM Ruben Amaro Jr. talked about the Phillies' offseason at a news conference today, and David Murphy of the Philadelphia Daily News and Matt Gelb of the Philadelphia Inquirer have quotes.

  • Amaro said he wants Jayson Werth back and the Phillies can afford him, but he expects talks to go deep into the offseason.  He'll make contact with Scott Boras over the next 48 hours.  Despite the prolonged timeframe, Amaro seems to want to address the Werth situation first: "We're not going to feel comfortable on anything until we know where we stand on Werth and go from there."  Werth, for his part, said he's "open to anything" but "this is definitely a business."
  • Amaro downplayed Werth's season, saying, "Jayson had a good year. It wasn't an extraordinary year.  He had a tough time with men in scoring position. It wasn't as productive a year as he had in the past."  I wonder if Boras feels the same way. 
  • Kyle Kendrick's work as the team's fifth starter was described as "a pretty good performance," implying that the 26-year-old will be tendered a contract and the 2011 rotation is settled.
  • The Phillies exercised Jimmy Rollins' 2011 option in December of 2009, but his next contract will probably be discussed after the '11 season.


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82 Comments on "Amaro Talks Phillies Offseason"


4 years 9 months ago

yea, werth will be a philly… just like crawford will still be a ray.

Emanny
4 years 9 months ago

Doubt he’ll be back in Philly. My guess is Boston.

Ben_Cherington
4 years 9 months ago

I hope you sir are wrong! Im not even going to get into it, but i would pass, unless its for a great price.

wayne_gomes
4 years 9 months ago

Just when I think I can fully trust Rube, he goes and talks about performance with RISP like it’s a talent that he can replace with a guy who has had better recent RISP stats. Sigh

nm344
4 years 9 months ago

What did he say that wasn’t accurate? Werth WAS bad with RISP. That’s a fact. He did not say that Werth is not a good player or that he had a ‘bad’ season. If he’s going to go into the negotiating table with the player, its also a smart thing to say.

bigpat
4 years 9 months ago

I forgot that games were won on paper and how a guy hits with men on base is meaningless. Thanks for clearing that up for me.

Joshua Ryan
4 years 9 months ago

It’s not meaningless, but it’s also idiotic to treat it as a controllable skill when it’s not.

Joshua Ryan
4 years 9 months ago

It’s not meaningless, but it’s also idiotic to treat it as a controllable skill when it’s not.

pastlives
4 years 9 months ago

take it easy champ, keep in mind he’s describing werth’s year that just ended, not predicting his future. to say that he was not as productive because he did not hit well with RISP is very true. to say werth’s year was ‘good, not great’ isn’t a giant middle-finger to sabermetrics, its just the truth…even though it has more to do with luck than anything else. will this normalize next year ? yes, likely. was the GM talking about next year?!? no.

wayne_gomes
4 years 9 months ago

This is the end of his quote about RISP performance”If he is not with us, there are players that we can acquire and or we have in our own organization that can help us be as consistent.”You’re telling me that this doesn’t imply that recent RISP performance will be a key factor for Rube in evaluating a replacement?

Whether it’s a negotiating strategy or not, it just shows that he’s treating “RISP performance” as separate, key input in making a roster decision.

pastlives
4 years 9 months ago

what do you expect him to say though, realistically? “we’re screwed if werth leaves us”?

wayne_gomes
4 years 9 months ago

There is a middle ground between saying “we’re doomed if he leaves” and “listen guys, look at his 2010 RISP splits that have little to no predictive value (put aside that his career RISP are nearly identical to his career OPS), we’ll find someone else more clutch!”

How about just do what 99% of other GMs do and give some canned non-answer

Andrew Jones
4 years 9 months ago

I think his point is that Werth’s performance this year will not be as hard for another player to replicate because he got his hits at the wrong times. A new guy, even if he does not hit as well, can produce what Werth produced simply by having a distribution of hits that includes a reasonable ratio of hits with RISP. He pretty clearly implied that he expects Werth to be more productive next year than he was this year, which indicates he understands that Werth’s poor RISP numbers were an anomaly.

pastlives
4 years 9 months ago

what do you expect him to say though, realistically? “we’re screwed if werth leaves us”?

malcolmec
4 years 9 months ago

Exactly. Sabermetrics are very useful as predictive statistics, and a lot of SABR zealots forget that the point of these metrics is to do exactly that… predict how a player will do in seasons to come. Batting average with RISP is a stat that is subject to change a lot from season to season, which makes it an unreliable predictor… but at the same time, it DOES reflect past performance, so to say a player’s effectiveness for a certain season in the past was affected by his average w/RISP is completely valid.

4 years 9 months ago

That’s about as sure of a sign as I’ve seen yet that Werth will NOT be a Phillie next year. When Amaro mentions you in his post-mortum presser (Pat Burrell, Brett Myers), it usually means you’ll be changing work addresses next year.

myname_989
4 years 9 months ago

I still see no reason Kyle Kendrick should be tendered a contract, unless he is non-tendered and signed to a minor league deal. Vance Worley pitched well enough at the end of the season to start the season as the team’s fifth starter. In fact, I think the Phillies will be comfortable with using a lot of their younger talent to fill needs. Worley in the fifth starters’ spot, Antonio Bastardo and Scott Mathieson out of the bullpen, makes sense to me. Along with a couple of affordable relief options like Jose Contreras and Pedro Feliciano, the Phils’ could put together a solid bullpen.

Resigning Jayson Werth is a must, and I must be one of the few people who think it can be done. The Phillies have several contracts coming off the books next year, including Raul Ibanez and Brad Lidge, and could expand payroll for a single season. I think Werth wants to stay in Philadelphia for many reasons, and the only reason negotiations would go deep into the offseason is because Scott Boras needs ample time to potentially ruin things.

hoagiebuchanan
4 years 9 months ago

Vance Worley pitched 13 innings in the majors…you really can’t judge a pitcher off of just 13 innings. Kendrick, although inconsistent, had some really great starts, as well as some very poor ones. To just hand the ball over to Worley, without even saying they would compete for the 5th spot in Spring Training, is a complete slap in the face to Kyle Kendrick.

myname_989
4 years 9 months ago

It’s a tiny sample size, but compared to Kendrick’s large sample size, is enough. Worley showed early that he has good control, and his breaking ball has come a long way. Every pitcher can have a good start. Kendrick’s inconsistency is the very reason that he should not be given the fifth starter’s spot. I’m not sure how many times you want to see the guy lose the job, but enough’s enough. It’s time for a change at the end of the rotation, and Worley has at least earned the opportunity, if not the job.

4 years 9 months ago

Do you realize that Kendrick threw 180 innings with average better then the league for their 5th starters. Considering what Kendrick makes in terms of money, and his performance, he’s a bargain. We say he’s their 5th starter but who had better numbers Blanton or Kendrick.

myname_989
4 years 9 months ago

Calling someone a bargain means that you’re paying them little money and getting something of value in return. Kyle Kendrick is nothing more than depth at this point in his career. He had the worst K/9 in all of baseball for a starter who pitched most of the season. His FIP was 4.88. I don’t know if you watched him every five days, but he was not good. Like jweb89 said, he had a good start here and there, but was tagged more often than not. He was designated for assignment mid season, and only rejoined the team after JA Happ was traded.

Joe Blanton pitched in fewer games than Kendrick and still nearly logged as many innings as him. Missing Spring Training really hurts some guys, and it was clear that Blanton was struglling to find any kind of groove. His ERA in August and September was 3.20. It’s not even questionable who the better pitcher is.

myname_989
4 years 9 months ago

It’s a tiny sample size, but compared to Kendrick’s large sample size, is enough. Worley showed early that he has good control, and his breaking ball has come a long way. Every pitcher can have a good start. Kendrick’s inconsistency is the very reason that he should not be given the fifth starter’s spot. I’m not sure how many times you want to see the guy lose the job, but enough’s enough. It’s time for a change at the end of the rotation, and Worley has at least earned the opportunity, if not the job.

hoagiebuchanan
4 years 9 months ago

Vance Worley pitched 13 innings in the majors…you really can’t judge a pitcher off of just 13 innings. Kendrick, although inconsistent, had some really great starts, as well as some very poor ones. To just hand the ball over to Worley, without even saying they would compete for the 5th spot in Spring Training, is a complete slap in the face to Kyle Kendrick.

bflaff
4 years 9 months ago

Negotiations are going to go deep into the offseason because presumably it will take that long for some team to win the Cliff Lee bonanza. Teams are going to hold on to their money piles for Lee until he’s taken off the market, and then they’ll consider spending their bank on someone else. Boras is smart enough to offer Werth as an expensive consolation prize to whatever team couldn’t splash their cash on Lee.

rzepczynski
4 years 9 months ago

only way werth stays is if ibanez goes… cannot keep brown in the minors their payroll is through the roof they need at least on starter making the min

4 years 9 months ago

Hypothetical Trade: Between the Phillies and the Twins in the off seasonTwins send Kyle Gibson, Delmon Young, Kevin Slowey, Matt Capps, Jason Repko and Ben Revere Phillies send Chase Utley, Cole Hamels, Tyson Gillies and $9 millionHelps the Phillies cut payroll while adding major league talent to the roster. Also helps the Twins bring in an ace and a power hitter with both guys having playoff winning experience, something the Twins need to beat the Yankees.

Ben_Cherington
4 years 9 months ago

my thoughts are….NO

Maybe if they did then they could also trade liriano for halladay? Just thoughts!

Ben_Cherington
4 years 9 months ago

my thoughts are….NO

Maybe if they did then they could also trade liriano for halladay? Just thoughts!

4 years 9 months ago

I’m assuming this is a joke, correct?

4 years 9 months ago

I’m assuming this is a joke, correct?

4 years 9 months ago

Nah, I think the Twins are getting jobbed. Gotta throw in at least Halladay too.

4 years 9 months ago

Nah, I think the Twins are getting jobbed. Gotta throw in at least Halladay too.

Sniderlover
4 years 9 months ago

lol…

Sniderlover
4 years 9 months ago

lol…

bigpat
4 years 9 months ago

Not a bad deal, Repko really pushes it in Philly’s favor. He’s a five tool player.

bigpat
4 years 9 months ago

Not a bad deal, Repko really pushes it in Philly’s favor. He’s a five tool player.

myname_989
4 years 9 months ago

My first thought – You shouldn’t have any more thoughts. You’re going to hurt yourself.

4 years 9 months ago

Are the Phillies really gonna be the yankees of the NL where payroll doesn’t matter? The Phillies won’t be able to afford Cole Hamels, Chase Utley is getting up there in age and making 15 mill a year, Ibanez’s contract is up after this year. They would be getting a superstar in Delmon Young, a stud #2 pitcher in Slowey (especially if he moves to the N.L.) and a big arm in the bullpen which is a huge need when Lidge is gone after next season.

Joshua Ryan
4 years 9 months ago

Utley and Hamels each are more valuable than that entire package. Just stop.

phil33
4 years 9 months ago

They sell out all their games, so no money is not an issue. They will continue too increase ticket prices and they will continue to sell out. So while they have a broad number they want to hover around, I don’t think its in stone. As for Werth, I really don’t think there will be a home town discount. This is his only payday at 31. Heard his interview today, didn’t sound too promising that hes coming back.

4 years 9 months ago

Without doing all the research because I don’t have the time right now, money IS an issue with the Phillies. They have basically maxed out their revenue at CBP and have said before they do not want to raise ticket prices. Now, I wouldn’t hold it against them if they up the tix a few dollars a piece but aside from that, they’re not bringing in much more money. What the Yankees have that the Phillies don’t is THEIR OWN NETWORK. Again, I don’t know how long the Phils are locked in with Comcast, but if they could create their own “Phightin Phillies Network” (PPN?) they’d be able to absorb poor contracts like Howard’s, Ibanez’s, Polanco’s, etc. each year and have nothing stopping them. Right now they have ceiling. And while it’s tough to complain about a team that spends as much as they do, there IS a limit.

phil33
4 years 9 months ago

Your right about a ceiling for spending and I understand that their at that limit. Otherwise they wouldn’t bulk at resigning Werth. Also, good points about the network. Money is of course an issue. I mispoke. I was just responding to people saying their about to start drastically cutting payroll. I think the only way that happens is if they have a meltdown. I think as long as they are still competitive they will stand pat and ride out the core. Even if it means operating at that limit. I know ticket sales only goes so far, but I think operating at the limit only becomes unacceptable when they start to fall apart and they stop selling out.

myname_989
4 years 9 months ago

I can barely take you seriously. Delmon Young is the furthest thing from a superstar I can think of. He’s an outfielder that has bounced around because of characters issues. He’s like Milton Bradley V2.0. He’s the exact type of guy that you’ll never see in a Phillies clubhouse. They’d have no interest in him.

Then you’re going to try and talk the Phillies into replacing Cole Hamels with Kevin Slowey? Come on now, I almost thought you were joking. A potential number 2? He’s more like a potential non-tender candidate. Replacing Hamels with a guy that has a career ERA 4.41 and a career FIP of 4.21 is laughable, especially when Cole Hamels is under contract for a very affordable 9.5MM. A pitcher of his caliber is well worth that.

Then you’re going to try and trade a reliever who’s been lit up in the NL in the past, who isn’t under contract in 2011, while we send you the face of the Philadelphia franchise in Chase Utley? I can’t even take this proposal seriously.

Guest
4 years 9 months ago

“He’s more like a potential non-tender candidate.”

No one should take you seriously after that. The last person I would trade my entire team for is Utley.

myname_989
4 years 9 months ago

What are you talking about? I was talking about Kevin Slowey.

4 years 9 months ago

He’s saying he wouldn’t sell the Twins farm for Chase Utley, I take it he doesn’t like him.

To the point though Delmon Young had 1 incident where he threw the bat, other then that he hasn’t had any character issues that you speak of, and he hasn’t “bounced around” either. He was traded to the Twins for Matt Garza good trade for both sides. Delmon Young is 24 and had a stat line of .298/21/112 thats pretty damn good for a 24 year old and is only getting better. Slowey on the other hand is still bouncing back from an injury, before that injury he was pitching like a true #2. It usually takes at least 2 years to bounce back from an arm injury in the big leagues. It took Liriano 2 years to bounce back from Tommy John.

I understand as a Phillie fan that you wouldn’t wanna trade Chase Utley and Cole Hamels. I was looking at it from a financial standpoint, you guys have a HUGE payroll problem in the coming years.

P.S. You also mention how Cole Hamels is affordable @ 9.5 million this upcoming year. I seem to remember your GM having another pitcher who had that same exact salary with 1 year left on his deal and traded him away for basically nothing. I’m blanking on his name though, I think he pitches for the Rangers now. Help me out, whats his name?

myname_989
4 years 9 months ago

Regardless of what he was talking about, I have no idea what he was saying. Lol. From a Twins standpoint, if you’re acquiring Chase Utley, he’s going to cost you premium talent. He’s one of the best second baseman in the game. Moving on…

The main thing about Delmon Young is simply that he isn’t the type of character the Phillies would be interested in acquiring. One act of bad character is enough for the Phillies to lose interest. They are interested in good players first and foremost, but value character just as much. They just wouldn’t be interested in Delmon Young, despite his talent.

That guy’s name was Cliff Lee. (I see you have jokes… >.>) There are a few differences between Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels in these years. The first is obviously age. Cliff Lee is going to be 33 and Cole Hamels will be 26. The next thing you’d have to consider is the next contract. While Cliff Lee will be looking for CC Sabathia money most likely, (23MM annually), Cole Hamels would probably be in line for something closer to Justin Verlander’s deal.

They were both affordable, but Cliff was traded because he wouldn’t sign an affordable extension with the team. Cole Hamles will be a Phillie for his entire career. You can bank on it.

Aside from that, I’m not sure where this notion that the Phillies are going to have a huge payroll problem is coming from. As long as the Phillies can afford to pay top dollar for talent, they will, and they have.

4 years 9 months ago

Kyle Gibson is the #1 prospect in the Twins Farm System Ben Revere is top 4 or 5 in the farm. I’d say that’s a pretty good return for a 2nd basemen who will be 32 next season. I guess if the Phillies keep winning and selling out every home game they should have the money to keep the players around and it won’t matter if Ruben hands out $100 million contracts like its candy.

Phillies are my 2nd favorite team behind the Twins, so I know the Phillies wouldn’t wanna trade either Chase or Cole. Of all the bad contracts Ruben has given out they still are nothing compared to trading Cliff Lee away for nothing. The only people who really know what kind of contract Cliff Lee was looking for last year with the Phillies would be Ruben, Cliff and his agent. I mean Lee said they offered a contract and Lee’s team came back with a counter proposal and then was traded the next day. It sounds like Amaro is pretty stubborn. They still would have had Drebak is the wings for the 4th or 5th spot in the rotation and would still have JA Happ. Halladay and Lee are about the same age. Obviously I would rather have Halladay but the Phillies also traded nothing for Cliff Lee (Indians are so stupid) I just think the way Ruben Handled last off season was pretty bad it was a domino affect of bad contracts and trades. Just my opinion.

4 years 9 months ago

Are the Phillies really gonna be the yankees of the NL where payroll doesn’t matter? The Phillies won’t be able to afford Cole Hamels, Chase Utley is getting up there in age and making 15 mill a year, Ibanez’s contract is up after this year. They would be getting a superstar in Delmon Young, a stud #2 pitcher in Slowey (especially if he moves to the N.L.) and a big arm in the bullpen which is a huge need when Lidge is gone after next season.

myname_989
4 years 9 months ago

My first thought – You shouldn’t have any more thoughts. You’re going to hurt yourself.

ACMilan
4 years 9 months ago

Phillies also throw in the Philly Phanatic and Comcast corporationTwins throw in private use of lakes, ability to develop lakefront property and Jesse Ventura, with the club option of receiving royalties from witty Al Franken zingers

4 years 9 months ago

Depends on if you’ll still let Jesse Ventura do his show Conspiracy Theory. If you let him do that show for 6-7 more years then you have a deal, but if you want him just for political purposes then i’m afraid we’re gonna have to pass.

Backup_Slider
4 years 9 months ago

There’s way too many pieces in that deal for it to be possible, but truth be told if the Phillies were to trade one of their 4 left-handed bats (Howard, Utley, Ibanez, Brown), the one that they’d be most likely to successfully deal may well be Utley (unless they ate almost the entire Ibanez salary for 2011).

So could the Phils could let Werth walk, swap Utley for prospects to help further replenish their farm system (future SS? bullpen arms?), and sign either a FA 3B (Beltre?) or 2B with Polanco moving to 2B if necessary?

BlueCatuli
4 years 9 months ago

That’s a hypothetical calamity.

TheHotCorner
4 years 9 months ago

I just don’t see Werth staying in Philly. Boras will pull out his binder comparing Werth to Willie Mays and look for the highest bidder. Come on…if Oliver Perez is the next Sandy Koufax then why don’t you believe Werth is the next Mays?

I like Werth so this is not a knock on him by any means. Just don’t see Boras allowing him to stay in Philly.

Of course Philly is going to need to consider what they do in a year after Ibanez’s contract is up. You will have Brown and Victorino. Who will be FA’s in 2012? If there is someone younger and just as good do you let Werth go and then go hard after a FA in 2012?

wayne_gomes
4 years 9 months ago

I like Amaro. He has his strengths and weaknesses like any GM. One thing he is not is patient though

He will put forward his best offer immediately and if it’s not taken (Burrell, Lee, Beltre, etc) he will quickly move on. I think he’s probably already made his best offer to Boras, who is obviously not going to want to forego the open market now that free agency is so close

Once Werth hits the market I think it’s over. If the extension is going to happen, it will happen before FA begins (which again, is very unlikely IMO. Scott Boras doesn’t earn his fees by advising his clients to forego the open market)

TheHotCorner
4 years 9 months ago

I just don’t see Werth staying in Philly. Boras will pull out his binder comparing Werth to Willie Mays and look for the highest bidder. Come on…if Oliver Perez is the next Sandy Koufax then why don’t you believe Werth is the next Mays?

I like Werth so this is not a knock on him by any means. Just don’t see Boras allowing him to stay in Philly.

Of course Philly is going to need to consider what they do in a year after Ibanez’s contract is up. You will have Brown and Victorino. Who will be FA’s in 2012? If there is someone younger and just as good do you let Werth go and then go hard after a FA in 2012?

PhilsPhaninPhlorida
4 years 9 months ago

Just because the $$$ will be outragous offered to him by the Red Sox, Rays or Yankees… Werth won’t be coming back… Werth “wants” to come back, and if its on a homeland discount, we can do it.. But Boras is Boras… and I see in the end, $$$ talks the most.

That said.. I believe a platoon of Brown/Fransisco and Ibanez/Fransisco with perhaps Mayberry being the 4th OF may work just as well… with the possible signing of another OF. Not sure what the list looks like.. Bullpen will change, Kendrick and Worley fight it out for the 5th starter… loser goes as longman in the pen.

Phillies if Healthy win 100 games.. if not, no less than 93-95 in 2011.

nm344
4 years 9 months ago

Phils are still stacked. Pretty much all the regulars had some of their worst years and (injuries and slumps) and they still wont 97 games. I’d love to see what they can do with H2O for the full year and a little bounce-back from Utley/Rollins/Howard.

patburn
4 years 9 months ago

I was browsing on Philly.com, some of the comments were great. It was like oh the Phils should trade Howard, Ibanez, Rollins, Blanton, etc so they could free up the money to resign Werth. Yeah this ain’t MLB2K9. If you trade anyone of them, the Phillies will have to eat up part or most (in Ibanez, Blanton and Mr $20 Mill’s cases) of their contract. Amaro said they had enough to sign Werth, but I don’t think Werth will sign for the $5 Million he will offer him to stay.

patburn
4 years 9 months ago

I was browsing on Philly.com, some of the comments were great. It was like oh the Phils should trade Howard, Ibanez, Rollins, Blanton, etc so they could free up the money to resign Werth. Yeah this ain’t MLB2K9. If you trade anyone of them, the Phillies will have to eat up part or most (in Ibanez, Blanton and Mr $20 Mill’s cases) of their contract. Amaro said they had enough to sign Werth, but I don’t think Werth will sign for the $5 Million he will offer him to stay.

The_Porcupine
4 years 9 months ago

Is it feasible to trade Ibanez? What could the Phils get for him if they chip in a couple million? I’d settle for a middle relief type arm, rh outfielder. Ibanez can play first too. Trading Ibanez also helps solve the lefty unbalance in the lineup, not to mention outfield defense. I know his contract is big, but its for 1 more year- certainly not the albatross it was last year.

bflaff
4 years 9 months ago

If Ibanez was a World Series MVP like Matsui in 2009, maybe. But after that big o-fer in the NLCS, he didn’t exactly showcase his talents. Can’t imagine that there’s a team out there saying, “Man, that guy would be a nice fit for us.”

bflaff
4 years 9 months ago

If Ibanez was a World Series MVP like Matsui in 2009, maybe. But after that big o-fer in the NLCS, he didn’t exactly showcase his talents. Can’t imagine that there’s a team out there saying, “Man, that guy would be a nice fit for us.”

4 years 9 months ago

I think to trade Raul at this point the Phils would have to throw in a few mil and/or a prospect. Everybody keeps talking about how we need a RH bat to platoon with Brown when we may need two of them go with Brown AND Raul. That could be scary and I’m hoping we pick up a decent one in addition to Francisco.

The_Porcupine
4 years 9 months ago

Is it feasible to trade Ibanez? What could the Phils get for him if they chip in a couple million? I’d settle for a middle relief type arm, rh outfielder. Ibanez can play first too. Trading Ibanez also helps solve the lefty unbalance in the lineup, not to mention outfield defense. I know his contract is big, but its for 1 more year- certainly not the albatross it was last year.

ACMilan
4 years 9 months ago

There are a lot of questions involving the Phillies over the next few months, and even the next few years. Full disclaimer – I am a Phillies fan.

The biggest question mark right now is of course Jayson Werth. Would I like him back? Certainly, but his demands are going to be astronomical. He will go to the highest bidder, whether they have a chance to win or not. If Werth is willing to wait on his payday and take a back-loaded contract like Pat Burrell did a few years ago, there is a chance he could return. With Ibanez coming off the books after next season, his $17 million could easily be appropriated for Jayson Werth.

The Phillies also need to look ahead to Cole Hamels’ free agency, which is after 2012. Hamels will command an enormous salary, but a salary I think he’s willing to give quite the hometown discount for. If memory serves me correctly, he is only one of 5 Phillies who live here year round, has a young child here, and his wife is very involved in the Philadelphia area.

As for the elephant in the room, Ibanez is completely impossible to trade, which is why his contract was so deplorable in the first place. Ibanez and Francisco are best served platooning in left field, each of whom show true platoon stats. Brown is ready to start in right field and is cost controlled for six seasons.

The most interesting scenario for the Phillies is if Jonathan Singleton can actually deliver in the outfield. His bat is very legitimate and he is likely two years away.

The one issue with the Phillies is money. Yes, they sell out every game, and the ticket prices will again rise. However, money is not made from the ballpark, but from the TV contract; the Phillies are locked into their current TV deal for another 6 seasons with Comcast. Their local contract is up after this season, which does give them the option that the few games not on Comcast could be picked up for a higher fee.

Obviously the Howard contract was a horrible mistake at the time, and an even bigger mistake now. His contract is going to hamstring the team moving forward.

4 years 9 months ago

First of all, Ibanez makes $11.5 mil next year so that’s how much will come off the books. I know it sounds nice to backload contracts but you can really run into trouble that way if you need to eventually move a player or they start rapidly declining. This doesn’t seem to be as common in baseball as it is in basketball and football (but of course in the NFL they can cut you whenever they’d like) but I see time and time again teams getting stuck with junk bench players who are getting paid $10/mil+ per season in the NBA.

Personally, I love Jayson Werth. Fun guy to watch, always plays hard, makes his fair share of boneheaded mistakes. I believe this though: the team that signs him will probably regret it by year 4 or 5 of the contract. I just don’t believe he’s worth what he’s going to get (and my personal guess would start at 5/$75 and probably more). Again, I’d love to have him back, but the Phillies as a team are getting old fast and locking in yet another guy long-term who’s venturing into his 30’s would be a mistake unless he wants to stay at an “under market” price and possibly years as well.

Good work on the Comcast information. I had referenced this in a previous post but didn’t feel like looking up the exact info! Hopefully at the end of the contract the Phils will still be on top of their game and able to leverage that into their own network or at least a gigantic contract from Comcast. As you noted, they’ve basically made all they can from CBP.

Last, I’ll end with this. As nervous as I am for this offseason, it’s going to be an incredibly interesting one. This will be Ruben’s biggest challenge yet. He clearly recognizes the need for an infusion of youth. Can he get it done? Or will it just be Dom out in right with few other changes? Would he be willing to trade a guy like Victorino or Rollins? He’s pulled a rabbit out of his hat a couple times with the Lee (coming to Philly) and Oswalt trades though he’s also made some poor moves (Ibanez, Lee leaving, Polly contract) as well. We’ll see what happens…

phil33
4 years 9 months ago

Your right about them not having their own network being a problem. It does make it so they have a number they don’t want to go above. I still don’t think the owners tell Amaro to cut payroll unless the team collapses and attendance slips. I think the proof of that was when Amaro said they hit their number last offseason and yet they still went out and got Oswalt (I know Astros picked up most of the bill but still says something). Proves that the number isn’t as rigid as they sometimes lead us to believe.
I have to disagree with you about Howard. He has his weaknesses and this is on the heals of that embarassing strikeout, but I’ll defend the contract. Locking up a player without letting them hit free agency who is a threat to lead the league in homers and rbi’s every year and is the face of the franchise can never be a “huge” mistake. Lets see what Pujols and Fielder get in the open market before you label it as such. Also, its not like Howard is a bum with a bad attitude and injury prone. This offseason after he got that contract he got his body together and worked on his play at first base and while he will never be a gold glover it still showed. Hes overpaid, but not enough for me to think he will be an alcatross. I just really don’t see his production slipping.

johnsilver
4 years 9 months ago

Not trying to dice on the Phillies, but look at the payroll they have with Howard, Halliday and utley going to be eating up 55M++ between them alone through at least 2013. They HAVE to figure out how to afford Hammel, Rollins after the season, the payroll is already at what? 145m? Oswalt wants to stay in Philly. He’s not going to hang around for less than the current 16M and a 3 year extension. they can let Lidge and Ibanez go, but you are not saving more than 23m there.

this team is facing a serious financial problem without werth as it is.

johnsilver
4 years 9 months ago

Not trying to dice on the Phillies, but look at the payroll they have with Howard, Halliday and utley going to be eating up 55M++ between them alone through at least 2013. They HAVE to figure out how to afford Hammel, Rollins after the season, the payroll is already at what? 145m? Oswalt wants to stay in Philly. He’s not going to hang around for less than the current 16M and a 3 year extension. they can let Lidge and Ibanez go, but you are not saving more than 23m there.

this team is facing a serious financial problem without werth as it is.

4 years 9 months ago

Wonderboy 1 Buttermore 0

4 years 9 months ago

Wonderboy 1 Buttermore 0

4 years 9 months ago

Exactly why I proposed that trade, even though it wasn’t enough to pry away Cole Hamels and Chase Utley. That extension to Ryan Howard was so god awful. He didn’t have an rbi in the playoffs when you need him the most. They should have just let Ryan Howard walk, his HR production was down significantly.

Andrew Jones
4 years 9 months ago

Hamels is still arb eligible after next season and Oswalt has an option year at 16 (so they don’t need to extend him if they don’t want to). They will also have Lidge and Ibanez off the books after next year, so they will have money to spend.

Muggi
4 years 9 months ago

It’s highly doubtful Oswalt signs another deal – he’s said for a long time this will be his last contract, and he even used his no-trade to negotiate getting his 2012 $2m buyout guaranteed if he chooses to not accept the Option (it’s essentially mutual, and came with a reduced payout if Oswalt declined). He’s lining himself up to retire after next season.

You’re right they have a lot of money on the books for a few players come 2012, and there will probably be several young guys in the team that season, but it’s not QUITER as dire as you seem to think it is.

malcolmec
4 years 9 months ago

In fairness to Howard, the Phillies as a team didn’t have many RBI in the playoffs. They were like 2 for infinity with runners in scoring position.

4 years 9 months ago

They team as a whole didn’t produce much in the NLCS as a whole I agree. But when you give a guy a 5 year $125 million extension and is arguably your best player, he has to come up big for you in the playoffs. The last AB could have been where he stepped up to be a hero, if he ties that game up right there nobody cares that he didn’t have an rbi before that.

malcolmec
4 years 9 months ago

Yea, but hes still going to fail 70% of the time. Ryan had a very good at bat and unfortunately got locked up by a nasty Brian Wilson curveball. The guy has had plenty of clutch hits in his career. It’s a little silly to point to one instance in which he failed as a reason why he’s not worth his contract.

4 years 9 months ago

I still don’t think your getting the point here. I know the best players in baseball are going to fail 70% of the time. What i’m saying to you is that your BEST player who is the HIGHEST PAID PLAYER on your team should not fail 100% of the time IN THE PLAYOFFS and be a complete non-factor. They may have had a better shot in the playoffs if Mike Sweeney had been playing 1st. YOUR BEST PLAYERS SHOULD PRODUCE IN THE PLAYOFFS PERIOD! Ryan Howard played like Betty White this year when it mattered the most.

myname_989
4 years 9 months ago

You honestly have no idea what you’re talking about. Howard hit a couple of doubles to balls in the gap, some that could have set up an RBI for those who followed in the order, and ones that could have scored guys. (Jimmy Rollins being held up at third comes to mind.) It’s ridiculous to say that he fails 100% of the time. This comment and the trade proposal you made helps you lose all credibility. The Phillies as a whole had a bad postseason. Period.

malcolmec
4 years 9 months ago

Howard had a playoff batting average of almost .300. Twice he had hits with men on base that could’ve scored runs–in the 6th game Jimmy Rollins couldn’t score from first on a Howard double due to his ailing legs and a good play in the outfield by Andres Torres, both things Howard couldn’t control. RBIs aren’t everything, and I find it a bit unfair that while Ryan Howard is knocking in 130+ runs during the regular season people act like it doesn’t matter and then when he hits well and doesn’t get RBIs those same people criticize him for that too.