Padres Seeking Production At The Top Of Lineup

The Padres are seeking top-of-the-order production this offseason, writes Don Norcross of the San Diego Union Tribune.  The club went through nine players in the leadoff spot in 2010 and got little offense from David Eckstein who batted second.

As it stands now, Adrian Gonzalez and Chase Headley are set to play the corner infield positions while Will Venable and Ryan Ludwick will be the corner outfielders.  Norcross writes that this means that the higher on-base percentage that San Diego is after will have to come from the middle of the field.

While Tony Gwynn turned in another excellent season in center field (32.9 UZR/150), his .204/.304/.287 slash line in 339 plate appearances left much to be desired.  Meanwhile, shortstop Everth Cabrera took a major step back in 2010, hitting just .208/.279/.278.

The Padres' combined on-base percentage for the top two spots in their batting order was .310, third worst in the majors.


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91 Comments on "Padres Seeking Production At The Top Of Lineup"


MetsEventually
4 years 10 months ago

How about Beltran for ya guys? well eat half his contract…we’ll take one of your sweet pitchers 😀

awww livin’ in dream town.

Dave_Gershman
4 years 10 months ago

doesn’t seem crazy to me actually. I could definetly see that happening to be honest but not for the Padres to just give up one of their young pitchers…Maybe something like Beltran for Hunter, Portillo, and Rincon for Beltran. Or maybe just soomething like Corey Luebke.

MetsEventually
4 years 10 months ago

I think if we throw in Lucas Duda or Capt. Kirk it could work…

Dave_Gershman
4 years 10 months ago

Kirk definetly. He’s really overrated. I love the Mets but they need. To unload Beltran and get a pitcher like Luebke or Stauffer.

AirmanSD
4 years 10 months ago

Thats a major overpay. Portillo and Rincon are very young talented prospects that are both highly regarded, for an overpriced injury prone player. That is not the kind of deal the Padres can make. Luebke is a player 6 years of team control left, and can be an effective #4 starter, why move that for Beltran, even if the Mets pay half the salary,9.25 mil would be the most expensive player on the Padres.

Dave_Gershman
4 years 10 months ago

And you can also get potentially one of the best CF’s in Baseball, a comeback candidate.

AirmanSD
4 years 10 months ago

I am not saying that it would not be an upgrade if he is healthy, which is a big if. Thats going to make the Padres be fairly conservative about any deal with the Mets for him. The Padres simply are not going to move prospects for 1 season of anybody unless they truly believe it be the difference in winning a world series. The Padres are not going to be able to spend even mid market money until the sale is compete, which is another 2-3 years away. Sucks for us the fans, but thats the truth.

Put it this way, the Mets pay half his salary and gets that package, the Padres will be paying about 16 million of a projected 45 million to two players. And if they resign Bell for a go for it season, the Padres will be committing about 23 million for 3 players. That leaves them with 22 million to fill out the rest of the roster, including arbitration with Ludwick and upgrades at 2nd and SS. The math doesn’t work.

Dave_Gershman
4 years 10 months ago

Ill be honest, I love the Padres and know a lot about their system, its deep. You’re right, my bad, but maybe that package can be used to acquire a more sure-thing player. What about someone like Chris Young, Matt Kemp, or Colby Rasmus? Maybe Jacoby Ellsbury? Jeremy Moore? Coco Crisp even.

Simon Castro, Rincon, and Williams for Matt Kemp?

Corey Luebke, Williams, Sampson for Rasmus?

Just speculating…

AirmanSD
4 years 10 months ago

I dont see any of Young/Rasmus/Kemp being moved. Cards would have a lot of offers for Rasmus if they decided to move him, and thus would be out of the Padres reach (Atlanta for one would be able and willing to out bid the Padres). Young is personally favorite, but intra division will make the tough. Same with Kemp. Ellsbury is a good option, if the Red Sox would move him without demanding Adrian (highly unlikely). Dont know much about Moore, and Crisp is a stop gap. Personally I would love to see the Padres and Astros make a deal for Bourne. I am just not sure how they match up since I know little about the Astros (plus I have a feeling he isn’t on their list for players they intend to move).

Dave_Gershman
4 years 10 months ago

He isn’t on their list, but there are other players like Bourn who can be made available, like Brett Gardner.

AirmanSD
4 years 10 months ago

I like Gardner as well, but that depends on who the Yanks sign, if they get Crawford then that would be ideal. Depends on who the ask for him thou.

Dave_Gershman
4 years 10 months ago

Just throwing out all maybe available players. I really think Orlando Hudson, a new shortstop (maybe Jason Bartlett) and a new CF will all be Padres next season.

AirmanSD
4 years 10 months ago

Not a fan of Hudson, but it could work. I like Bartlett, but don’t see the Padres paying him through, unless of course he is non-tendered. But if he becomes an FA, a few teams will have interest.

GasLampGuru
4 years 10 months ago

Really? So you are OK with giving up Cory Luebke for an outfielder who hasn’t played a full season since 2008 and frankly looked a step or two slow when he came back? Beltran’s knees are shot and he was heavy when he came back. He can’t play CF in PetCo. I’d be OK with giving up Hunter because I don’t think he’s more than a 4th OFer, but there is no reason to believe Beltran is capable of playing regularly over 162 games and producing at a high level.

4 years 10 months ago

Beltran is not even on the Padres radar. They wouldnt touch the salary or the question marks on health. Period. I would however trade Castro for a guy like Brett Gardner. I could also go Bell or Adams plus portillo for Gardner.

Mario Saavedra
4 years 10 months ago

Unload an expensive player to a team having problems retaining his players… and also give up a “sweet pitcher”… yeah right…

MetsEventually
4 years 10 months ago

Joke you derp.

4 years 10 months ago

But who really is available?

Dave_Gershman
4 years 10 months ago

2 wrds. 0-Dawg.

Backup_Slider
4 years 10 months ago

I’m chuckling that you typed Zero-Dawg when you meant to type Oh-Dawg. Freudian slip? I’ve heard Hudson called the Oh-for-4 Dog, but I haven’t heard anyone call him the Zero Dog.

Dave_Gershman
4 years 10 months ago

The “O” on my parents laptop is broken. I’m on my phone now. So I tried to avoid using the letter “O” but would never refer to him as the 0-Dawg. More like the 10000000-Dawg!

Ohhhplease
4 years 10 months ago

Such a lack of mi-priced bats this offseason. The Pads will not have the money to make any huge FA splashes, so what do they do?

I think at some point, the only thing they can do is trade Adrian Gonzales and Heath Bell. The Pads can afford to lose Bell far more than they can A Gonz, but it is really the only move they can make based on limited payroll and a total lack of hitters on the farm.

As sad as it is (as a Pads fan) to say it, the only solution is addition by subtraction.

Sniderlover
4 years 10 months ago

Ughhh I really want to see Padres keep Gonzalez.

Heck, I would love it if they could add Crawford or something. Shame they don’t have enough payroll. They are pretty close to contending IMO.

YouDontKnowDude
4 years 10 months ago

If they took a risk and fronted the money to sign Crawford and extend Gonzalez, I think they would be paid back big time in attendance.

mrsjohnmiltonrocks
4 years 10 months ago

Hmm…the Brewers need pitching in the worst way. The Padres might love Rickie Weeks manning 2nd base. Cost controlled pitching-one starter and one reliever, for Rickie Weeks.Brandon Phillips could end up on the block at some point too. If he does the Padres ought to pounce.

They might want to watch and see what the A’s do with Coco Crisp. He could end up being a low cost acquisition that could offer short term help.

AirmanSD
4 years 10 months ago

I like the Weeks idea, but this is his last year of control. He will be a FA after the 2011 season, which means the Padres are not going to be likely to trade a projected piece of the future for him. I have a hard time seeing the Padres move anything of value unless they get a piece back that they can control of a couple of years min.

mrsjohnmiltonrocks
4 years 10 months ago

I thought about that. At some point, they are going to have to pay something to someone. A Gon may be too large of a contract to handle long term; Weeks’ probably won’t be, and the Padres don’t seem to have a 2nd baseman in their system anywhere close to ready.

I have to ask why someone who has so little money to spend on a team would be allowed by MLB to buy a team; and why, if you didn’t have the kind of money it takes to do it right, you would want to own a team. I don’t understand that.

If the Padres want to stay competitive, they are going to have to get some guys who can hit, even if it costs them money and prospects.

AirmanSD
4 years 10 months ago

MLB really didnt have a choice in this sale, it was this or the team be auctioned after the divorce of Moores. It was sold at the height of the recession, and there wasn’t bidders line-up to buy the team.

Of course the Padres are going to have to spend money to make themselves stable in the long run, but for the moment, they are trying to build up a farm system and plan for the future, and if the Padres are unlikely to keep Adrian it makes little sense for them to delay the process by trading prospects now. Personally I want to see what they do with Adrian before dealing with the rest of the Padres issues, if the Padres decide to trade Adrian, then move him and see where the holes are after the trade.

briankoke
4 years 10 months ago

Yes they do. They have top prospects Logan Forsythe and Drew Cumberland that will most likely end up at 2B.

4 years 10 months ago

Neither of which is ready. Both still need work defensively and Cumberland has to prove he can hit at least AA ball for a full season and stay healthy. Forsythe is essentially major league replacement level with a little upside if he proves he can be a valuable utility player. Cumberland, if healthy, has real impact upside. We need a 2 year solution…. Hudson or Weeks could work.

briankoke
4 years 10 months ago

I guess it depends on your interpretation of “anywhere close to ready.”

To me, Players in AA are usually pretty close. Do I expect us to break camp with one of them at 2B? No, but I wouldn’t be surprised if they were fighting for a job in Spring Training of 2012.

4 years 10 months ago

Just a question…. How many MLB franchises have had winning records 5 of the last 7 years?

4 years 10 months ago

I would do a Rickie Weeks deal for a solid bullpen piece and mid level prospect. But, you are right… they are not gonna do something like MIke Adams and Luebke for Weeks

42214221
4 years 10 months ago

Weeks 4 Timmy
Bell 4 Gardner or Bourguos
leBlanc 4 Zeigler

4 years 10 months ago

Stauffer still young and under control…. too much for Weeks. The Yankees or angels are not going to give up those players for just Bell. Leblanc for Zeigler I like.

42214221
4 years 10 months ago

weeks and cash 4 extension 4 portillo, hefner and ramos

trigo25
4 years 10 months ago

Fukudome could play CF and could hit lead-off or second. The Cubs would eat most of the $11M salary in 2011.

briankoke
4 years 10 months ago

Fukudome isn’t a good enough defensive CF. Hoyer wants Venable in RF and a true CF’er. Fukudome isn’t even as good as Venable in CF.

4 years 10 months ago

Ellsbury?

That makes too much sense.

Tim Valencia
4 years 10 months ago

price is too high and he is coming off an injury

Sawksfan
4 years 10 months ago

Nah, it was a freak injury. Broken ribs isn’t like a shoulder or ACL repair. GM’s and scouts know his value, just look at his 2009. And he’s only hitting his 1st year of arbitration.

4 years 10 months ago

Ellsbury is something to consider… depends on the asking price. The Padres are going to look for a deal or just sign cheap non impact players.

johnsilver
4 years 10 months ago

Ellsbury might make sense, but like has been said.. the ribs and Epstein won’t give him away, plus outside of aGone that SD won’t be moving for the right price (in Epstein’s eye’s) they have nothing that can help them on the offensive side of the game Boston would be looking for and he’s not going to be moved for a middle reliever.

Same with Jed Lowrie that Hoyer has always liked and DOES make more sense on a move to SD, but he’s probably being held back for a piece in a larger deal elsewhere for a bat. Shame SD has nobody that can help them in that regard, cause lowrie could really help them up the middle and is just about ready to hit his potential with injuries finally behind him it looks like.

Yankees420
4 years 10 months ago

You don’t think Theo would trade Lowrie for one or two of the nice bullpen arms SD has?

johnsilver
4 years 10 months ago

Not myself, going from past history with the Epstein &Co FO. Only time they have given up anyone with any real talent for a middle reliever was Crisp and that was because crisp was politely asking for a trade and they were under the gun to get him moved. Lowrie has more value IMHO and would probably get back at least as good of a middle guy “if* that is what they were looking for, but a bat is what think they would be looking for if they choose to move him, relying on the exact same way as always to fix the BP.. FA, minors and 1-2FA signings.

BP is not as all bad off as the stats really show I at least think with a decent enough closer and top notch setup guy intact, Atchinson is at least a fair 1-2 inning garbage time guy and Doubront should be fine as the long guy/spot starter next year if he is not moved along with Lowrie for that bat…

Backup_Slider
4 years 10 months ago

The Padres are in such need of offensive production that I don’t think you can limit the need to the “top of the lineup” or any other part of the lineup. My headline would have been “Padres Seeking Production at the 7 Batting Order Spots not Occupied by Adrian Gonzalez or the Pitcher”.

Dylan Ramirez
4 years 10 months ago

Ellsbury would only come in a package for Adrian Gonzalez. I have to agree with Ohhplease the only way the Padres can find a legitimate leadoff hitter is by trading Bell or Gonzo. I wonder how the Angels would feel about a Bell for Borjous deal.

ze3
4 years 10 months ago

I’d be surprised if the Angels would trade Bourjos for Bell. I don’t see them giving him up, he’s the Angels CF for years to come, that is until Trout reaches the majors. The Angels would much rather part from somebody from their infield rather than Bourjos, like Izturis, Callaspo or maybe even Kendrick or Aybar, although its a longshot.

I wonder if a Bourjos-Wood for Bell-Blanks trade would work…

briankoke
4 years 10 months ago

Blanks is the Padres 1B man when Adrian is gone. That doesn’t work for the Padres. I could see the Angels dealing Bourjos for the very reason you mention… Trout. He’s probably less than two years away, they have Hunter who can play CF, and I think they have a good shot at CC.

ze3
4 years 10 months ago

Hunter has made a definite move to RF, I don’t see him going back to CF. I really don’t think Bourjos is leaving, he’s in the Angels future plans. When Trout comes up he’ll play CF, with Bourjos probably moving to RF. Torii is a great player, but he is getting a bit slower and his contract is up in 2012. I really don’t see Bell coming to Anaheim through that trade.

jb226
4 years 10 months ago

I think you’re severely over-estimating Ellsbury or severely under-estimating the Padres’ system if you think the only way they could get him is for Gonzalez. They might not be willing to give up the pieces to get it done, but they certainly COULD.

Yankees420
4 years 10 months ago

I think what Dylan is saying is that the only reason the Red Sox would trade Ellsbury to the Padres is in a package deal for Adrian, not so much that the Padres don’t have the quality to obtain Jacoby otherwise.

cookmeister
4 years 10 months ago

I don’t see Borjous in a deal, at least not yet. He had suprising power and is really fast. If he gets a little more discipline at the plate (he looked nervous a lot of the time) he stays put. If they want production, how about Izturis or maybe even Aybar?

Yankees420
4 years 10 months ago

At age 30 Izturis isn’t much more than a utility player and the Padres would have to believe that Aybar could regain his .353 OBP from ’09 to make him worth trading for, imo.

zcoughlin2
4 years 10 months ago

How about David DeJesus in KC? I know that the Pet is huge, but the guy could play all three positions in the outfield and would offer a ton of production from the 1/2 hole. Don’t know what the Royals would want back for him, as last year’s asking price before he got hurt was HUGE, and he is in the last year of his contract. However, guy would make sense for a couple of type B prospects.

yazpik
4 years 10 months ago

Figgins + prospects for Gonzo… Come on Jack”!””

GasLampGuru
4 years 10 months ago

Keep dreaming. The padres would never take on that contract.

Beersy
4 years 10 months ago

If the Mariners would do Figgins, Smoak and Pineda for Gonzalez I would do it in a minute. Figgins can play 3rd right away and bat lead off, Smoak can take over at 1st and Pineda just adds to an all ready improving farm system. I don’t think the Mariners would do this deal, but if they want another team to eat Figgins’ contract they will have to give a little more than expected. This all hinges on whether or not Gonzo would sign a deal before the trade.

4 years 10 months ago

you know and I know AGon go to RSox this winter and Bell is going to another team too and Ludwick is no tender then looking for replacements.

cubfan4life
4 years 10 months ago

IMO id be surprised if they did much this offseason. Everyone seems to think that the are going to ship out their 2 big pieces. I think that they will hang on to both of them and if they fall out of contention then move them closer to the deadline.

They were a team that spent much of the year in 1st and was in the playoff hunt til game 162. With that starting staff in that park they may be inclined to just go into this year and see what happens then if needed trade them in june or july.

Of course they will listen to offers as any team should and if they can get what they are asking or more they’ll probably pull the trigger but if i was them id bring in a guy like Orlando Hudson to put at the top of the order to help with the production and then add him to the list of trade bait if they are out of it come mid to late june.

4 years 10 months ago

Good post. You are spot on. The Padres will dangle bell and Adrian and only pounce if they get the deal they want. The are not desperate to move either. Hudson makes sense on a 1 or 2 year deal.
I would add: Sign Westbrook to add to the pitching depth.

These are the moves the padres are likely to make.

cubfan4life
4 years 10 months ago

I dont think Westbrook gets away from St. Louis, and even if he does id expect him to want something relatively close to what Marquis got from the Nats last year.

In that same thought though a guy to keep your eye on might be Kevin Millwood. He isnt spectacular but he is durable starting 30 or more games 5 of the last 6 years and the year that he didnt he started 29.
His numbers this year were ugly. But i think that he can have a bounce back year finally getting to pitch in a pitchers park like PetCo kind of like Garland had this year.

4 years 10 months ago

I know he’s awful defensively, but what about Johnny Damon?

Mr3000
4 years 10 months ago

The Padres are not interested in building a championship team. They only want a cheap, competitive team that will fill seats and get fans to hope the team will win it all.
Look for inexpensive players past thier prime. And Blanks will NOT make it as any kind of impact player.

gazzzmann
4 years 10 months ago

Sox would love Agone,but so far the price is to high,Ellsburry ,close to major league ready Casey kelly,Michael Bowden,starter in minors, helped in bulpin in september,Rizzo high power first base prospect ,and the deal braker Jose Iglesias our SS of the future 2012.Take Iglesias of the table and you’ve got a lot of talent for AGone.Sox fans are hopping!!

Sawksfan
4 years 10 months ago

It makes alot of sense. They’re shortening right field for cryan out loud, he hits left, great glove. It just makes sense. Question is, since Jed Hoyer knows the Boston farm system inside and out from his time as Theo’s assistant GM, would they be able to pull the trigger on a deal. Kelly has been labeled untouchable but maybe Gonzo is a good reason to deal him.

4 years 10 months ago

Lowrie Ellsbury,Rizo , and Kelly for AGon and you have a deal.

gazzzmann
4 years 10 months ago

I think Sox would love it,but what I’m reading here is they would want a “sign and trade deal” I’ve only heard of that in the NBA.

4 years 10 months ago

I don’t know about that but I think is a good idea.

AirmanSD
4 years 10 months ago

I am not one to usually overvalue prospects, but I doubt it. The Angels may do this but its not like they got a great deal of production out of their outfield, and they have to replace Matsui. Plus 3rb base is a bigger problem for them.

AirmanSD
4 years 10 months ago

Perfect, if the Yankees decide to sign Crawford, if not then they will need him.

Sniderlover
4 years 10 months ago

A lot of teams would be interested if Gardner became available.

AirmanSD
4 years 10 months ago

No on the Wood part, if we decide to rebuild just let Darnell take the spot. Instead target one of their young arms. But they wont let Trout go for anyone, and they really shouldn’t.

Speaking of which, I guess I am just preparing myself for an opening day lineup of:
1B: Blanks
2B: Antonelli
SS: Cabrera
3B: Darnell (or Headley since he isn’t arb eligible)
RF: Venable
CF: Hunter
LF: Cunningham

I just might as well get ready for it.

ze3
4 years 10 months ago

As it stands, if Crawford signs with the Angels, he’d be playing LF, I doubt Borujos would be expendable. We Angels fans are dreaming with a Crawford-Bourjos-Hunter outfield, that’s 3 Gold Gloves right there

cookmeister
4 years 10 months ago

so does Morales get moved to the outfield? not sure i like that

AirmanSD
4 years 10 months ago

I think it all hinges on Adrian. If they cant agree to a contract and another team makes a offer worth it they will deal him. (its in the clubs best long term interest regardless of how we feel about it). If that happens then the Padres going to have no choice but to rebuild. So until we know for sure the Padres are keeping him and going to be thinking about how much playing time is going to be there for the young kids. Hope for the best, plan for the worst.

briankoke
4 years 10 months ago

Darnell is not ready.

AirmanSD
4 years 10 months ago

I guess I should clarify a few things. 1) I dont actually think that will be the padres starting lineup, nor do I believe the Padres would rush that many young prospects to majors at the same time. 2) Thats basically the idea that if we are rebuilding then rebuild, trade players with value and get max returns where and whenever possible. 3) Its about how it could turn out, remember we have no idea what the Padres plan is, and there is a reason for that.

I was merely stating that we could be in line for a honest rebuilding mode. Darnell is not ready, Hunter isn’t ready, but chances are if the Padres fall out of contention next year they are going to see time with the big league club. I dont know about you, but I dont have a crystal ball.

Dylan Ramirez
4 years 10 months ago

Matsui played less than 20 games in the OF I don’s see how he would figure into it.

briankoke
4 years 10 months ago

That’s not fair. If the Padres trade Adrian Gonzalez, they would receive, at the very least, one major league ready position player. If they are going to trade Headley, it’s because they are going to upgrade the position. Why else would they trade him? Same goes for Ludwick.

AirmanSD
4 years 10 months ago

That is true. But do you know who they are going to get? How about if that major league ready player is a pitcher, does that change things. And even if they get a position player we cant know where they will fit in, or what position it will be. If the trade Adrian, I expect them to trade Ludwick, still I can being to say what the Padres would receive in return. Headley was merely a comment on his saying we trade both Adrian and Headley to the Angels (has nothing to do with me thinking Darnell will be any better). Its impossible to know what will happen, what we can say is that if the Padres move Adrian, its going to be a rebuilding mode.

briankoke
4 years 10 months ago

Why would they trade our positions players for more pitchers? We need offense. We had one of the worst offenses in baseball. We don’t need pitching. We had one of the best pitching staffs in baseball.

“And even if they get a position player we cant know where they will fit in, or what position it will be.”

Sure we can. We need players up the middle.

“If the trade Adrian, I expect them to trade Ludwick,”

I don’t. He doesn’t have great value and we wont be strapped for cash if we trade Adrian. I also think we could still compete even without Adrian if we get a few major league pieces in return. Why not keep Ludwick and hope he gets some value back before the deadline, or hope he’s a type B free agent for a draft pick?

“what we can say is that if the Padres move Adrian, its going to be a rebuilding mode.”

I think it’s more of a retooling than rebuilding. We have lots of good young pieces. What if we traded Gonzo for Ellsbury, Lowrie, and Kelly? We lose Adrian, but Blanks moves in to first and Ellsbury/Lowrie take up two big holes. We also get a potential frontline starter that isn’t that far away.

GasLampGuru
4 years 10 months ago

“What if we traded Gonzo for Ellsbury, Lowrie, and Kelly? We lose Adrian, but Blanks moves in to first and Ellsbury/Lowrie take up two big holes.”

Brian I usually think your stuff is pretty well thought out, but I see some major issues with this scenario.

First of all, the Padres won’t be trading for Elsbury. He’s arbitration eligible after 2011, and if he has another season like he did in 2009 he’ll be in line for a pretty big pay raise. If the Padres can’t control him pre-arb for at least three years, they won’t take him on.

Second, we have no idea what to expect of Blanks. We do know he’ll probably be out until July. We also know he showed some major holes in his swing when he was healthy in 2010. I don’t think it’s a lock that we’ll see him in the majors at any point in 2011. I’d put my money on a lengthy rehab and AAA stint to get his confidence back. Not to mention, there is no guarantee he’ll be back before 2012 – look at Chris Denorfia’s journey back from TJ surgery, it took him nearly 2 full seasons to get back anywhere near 100%.

If they trade Adrian and slide Blanks back to 1B, they are rebuilding. Call it what you want, but you’re going from a .280, 30 HR, 100 RBI man to the great unknown. That’s rebuilding. It’s hard to expect anything from Blanks at this point.

GasLampGuru
4 years 10 months ago

They tried to get him in the Adrian Gonzalez talks before 2010, when they could have had control of him for two seasons pre arbitration.  Getting a player the year he’s due for arbitration does not fit into their financial model.  They are more concerned with shedding guys who are arbitration eligible (Heath Bell) than adding them at this point.

4 years 10 months ago

Not a chance on Crawford. The money Crawford is going to get could easily go to Adrian. The Padres will try and leverage their depth in a trade…. not many good FA out there. If the sign an impact FA it would be a starting picther like Westbrook.

briankoke
4 years 10 months ago

“First of all, the Padres won’t be trading for Elsbury. He’s arbitration eligible after 2011, and if he has another season like he did in 2009 he’ll be in line for a pretty big pay raise. If the Padres can’t control him pre-arb for at least three years, they won’t take him on.”

Then explain to me why Jed Hoyer tried to acquire Ellsbury at the deadline? Yes, he’s going to be making some money. He’s also under team control for 3 more years and he’ll never make the kind of money Adrian is going to make after next season. We probably can’t afford Adrian taking up 15% of our payroll at 16-20 million, but why can’t we afford a player like Ellsbury who will probably be in 5-10 million range through the rest of his contrat? You are acting like the Padres wont get any player making more than the minimum. If we trade Adrian, that’s money off the books. If we trade Bell, that’s money off the books. Ludwick is off the books after next year. CY, Correia, Garland, Torrealba, Eckstein… are all off the books. I don’t see any problem whatsoever.

“Second, we have no idea what to expect of Blanks. We do know he’ll probably be out until July.”

I expect Blanks to rebound from his horrible 2010 season and I have no reason not to think that. He showed what he can do in 09, was a top prospect in baseball, and has hit at every level. 1 1/2 months don’t make a player. I really doubt he’s out until July. Most position players who have Tommy John surgery are back on the field in 8-10 months. Why is he so special to take 12 months? He’s a first baseman which is the least demanding position on the field for a players arm.

“If they trade Adrian and slide Blanks back to 1B, they are rebuilding. Call it what you want, but you’re going from a .280, 30 HR, 100 RBI man to the great unknown. That’s rebuilding.”

Sure it is if you are only pointing out one position. If the Padres upgrade at several other positions while getting worse at just that one, it isn’t a complete rebuild. We have a very young team that does not need a complete overhaul.

Chris Denorfia hardly took 2 years to recover. He had Tommy John surgery in March of 07 and came back in 08 with a very strong season.

briankoke
4 years 10 months ago

“First of all, the Padres won’t be trading for Elsbury. He’s arbitration eligible after 2011, and if he has another season like he did in 2009 he’ll be in line for a pretty big pay raise. If the Padres can’t control him pre-arb for at least three years, they won’t take him on.”

Then explain to me why Jed Hoyer tried to acquire Ellsbury at the deadline? Yes, he’s going to be making some money. He’s also under team control for 3 more years and he’ll never make the kind of money Adrian is going to make after next season. We probably can’t afford Adrian taking up 15% of our payroll at 16-20 million, but why can’t we afford a player like Ellsbury who will probably be in 5-10 million range through his team control? You are acting like the Padres wont get any player making more than the minimum. If we trade Adrian, that’s money off the books. If we trade Bell, that’s money off the books. Ludwick is off the books after next year. CY, Correia, Garland, Torrealba, Eckstein… are all potentially off the books. I don’t see any problem whatsoever.

“Second, we have no idea what to expect of Blanks. We do know he’ll probably be out until July.”

I expect Blanks to rebound from his horrible 2010 season and I have no reason not to think that. He showed what he can do in 09, was a top prospect in baseball, and has hit at every level. 1 1/2 months don’t make a player. I really doubt he’s out until July. Most position players who have Tommy John surgery are back on the field in 8-10 months. Why is he so special to take 12 months? He’s a first baseman which is the least demanding position on the field for a players arm.

“If they trade Adrian and slide Blanks back to 1B, they are rebuilding. Call it what you want, but you’re going from a .280, 30 HR, 100 RBI man to the great unknown. That’s rebuilding.”

Sure it is if you are only pointing out one position. If the Padres upgrade at several other positions while getting worse at just that one, it isn’t a complete rebuild. We have a very young team that does not need a complete overhaul.

Yankees420
4 years 10 months ago

Denorfia only played in 29 MLB games in ’08, while posting unspectacular numbers in the minors. He also spent almost the entirety of ’09 in the minors with more mediocre numbers, not exactly coming back strong right away.

cubfan4life
4 years 10 months ago

And also when it comes to a recent comparable for a position player coming off TJ surgery just take a look at Xavier Nady. A year plus removed from TJ and he still couldnt hardly make a throw from the OF and he lost a lot of his power at the plate.

A swing, especially a power hitters swing, causes a lot of torque on the joints in the arm. Most people dont think about it because the majority of players that have TJ surgery are pitchers who dont use the bat much if at all anyway. But for a power hitter not having complete confidence in that injured arm it does take away something in his swing.

briankoke
4 years 10 months ago

Ahhhhh… NO! He played in 76 games between A, AAA, and the MLB. He hit .333 .333 .333 in 2 A games, .302 .342 .413 in 45 AAA games, and .290 .362 .387 in 29 MLB games. Not spectacular, but still very good. I’d say that’s coming back pretty strong right away.

briankoke
4 years 10 months ago

There’s plenty of examples of position players coming off TJ in 8-10 months and playing just fine. Jose Canseco, Matt Holliday, Shin Soo Choo, Carlos Quentin, Kelly Johnson, Dustin Ackley… Nady has now had 2 TJ surgerys and he was a part time player this year. Not the best example.