Cafardo’s Latest: Peavy, Gonzalez, Molina, Beltre

In today's notes column for The Boston Globe, Nick Cafardo writes about the Orioles' rebuilding process, which included renovations to the team's Spring Training and minor league facilities. "There was no magic formula," said president of baseball operations Andy MacPhail. "We're not doing anything that hasn't been done before. The Orioles I grew up with did it with scouting and player development, and we're doing it the same way now."

Here are the rest of Cafardo's rumors…

  • Both Yankees and Red Sox executives spoke out against revenue sharing last week, but no one wants a salary cap and the player's union won't allow one anyway.
  • The early signs are good for Jake Peavy, who is coming back from a detached lat muscle. One scout called Peavy "trade bait for sure" if he's healthy and the White Sox slip out of contention. "Though teams may come after Mark [Buehrle] first."
  • John Boggs, agent for Adrian Gonzalez, has not talked to the Red Sox about an extension since December, though something may be set up soon. Boggs will not be in Florida until the third week of March.
  • The Brewers don't want to bring in someone like Bengie Molina in the wake of Jonathan Lucroy's broken finger because they know their young backstop will be back in a few weeks.
  • When the Red Sox drew the line at four years and $52MM for Adrian Beltre, one of their fears was his potential to get hurt given his all-out approach. Beltre suffered a calf strain recently and may be out for up to a month.


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72 Comments on "Cafardo’s Latest: Peavy, Gonzalez, Molina, Beltre"


Disloyal
4 years 5 months ago

Guess the Redsox where right about not signing Beltre….

NomarGarciaparra
4 years 5 months ago

The decision is looking good so far!

But honestly, people are saying that Gonzalez and Crawford isn’t an improvement over Beltre and Martinez…ok, maybe not an improvement over the 2010 Beltre, but what are the odds that Beltre will be able to replicate his 2010 season? Martinez is 31 and already a defensive liability…imagine his defense at 35. On the other hand, Gonzalez and Crawford have been consistent in the past years, and both are in the late 20s, and both are good/great defenders.

Green_Monster
4 years 5 months ago

Even if it is a replacement, (its not). The Red Sox will have a healthy Youk, Pedey, Ells, Cameron and more. But… Crawford-Gonzales> Beltre-Martinez……… Jealous people will try to reject that, but its obvious.

notsureifsrs
4 years 5 months ago

these guys are just talking about 2011 v. 2010. given what martinez and beltre contributed in 2010, gonzo and crawford are approximately equally valuable for 2011. it’s the rest of the team being healthy as you said that makes them much better this year

going forward, beyond 2011, they are waaaay better off with crawford and gonzalez. that’s what the exciting part is

4 years 5 months ago

Beltre will be hard to replace (at least as well as he did last year). But A-Gone is a great player, and he should match his production if he can adjust to the AL. Downgrading from V-Mart to Saltalamacchia is big, but the freak injuries shouldn’t hit the outfield, and I can’t imagine Lackey and Beckett being that bad again. Overall, I don’t think you can really say they didn’t improve.

Green_Monster
4 years 5 months ago

Lol at A-gone matching production of Beltre. Wow, you forgot Crawford? Big Upgrade. How about the bullpen, way better. They improved a lot.

4 years 5 months ago

I was comparing the player that replaced Beltre to Beltre. I obviously factored Crawford in when I said they’re improved.

Green_Monster
4 years 5 months ago

But are you saying all you think A-gone will do is match Beltre’s production?

4 years 5 months ago

Beltre had an INCREDIBLE season last year. He posted 7.1 WAR. What is the best WAR A-Gone has ever produced? 6.5. I’m not saying that Beltre will be better this year, but to match the production from last year would take a special season.

Green_Monster
4 years 5 months ago

But your just looking at WAR. Also your looking at one season, not a spread of 5 seasons. Anyone can have a breakout season, than stink again.

See Beltre 2004

4 years 5 months ago

My point is matching his production from that of Beltre’s last year. Beltre was great last year. Again, Beltre may not be the better player. But to expect A-Gone to replace that production is a little optimistic. He may, but he will have to do it with great offense, as he will not be able to make up for the special D of Beltre.

4 years 5 months ago

And please don’t say he sucked. He was not a superstar in his time in Seattle, but he was still a solid player who was worth every penny he was paid.

Green_Monster
4 years 5 months ago

I never said he sucked. Because he didn’t suck. He was paid by the Mariners to produce something like his 2004 season. Which he never did again. But he is a good player.

4 years 5 months ago

You said everyone can have a breakout year, than stink again. And then you mention Beltre’s 2004. It sees to me that you were using Beltre as an example of a guy who had a breakout than stunk, no? Also $12 million a year (which is what he got) is not how one pays a guy if they expect the 2004 season (which would be dumb to expect). If you expect that every year, you’re expecting as good as A-Rod in his prime. They obviously put room for regression in the salary.

Green_Monster
4 years 5 months ago

No, I said they would pay him to produce something like 2004, which he didn’t. Also were do you get 7.1 war? Baseball reference says 6.1

4 years 5 months ago

Fangraphs has 7, I tend to prefer their system (seems to put more stock into Defense). And they paid him around $12 Million in average salary, which is not expecting his 2004 form. If anyone expect that, they’d be paying him around $23 million minimum.

Green_Monster
4 years 5 months ago

How many times do I have to say, no one was expecting him to post his 2004 numbers again.

4 years 5 months ago

But you just said “I said they would pay him to produce something like 2004″ isn’t that expecting him to produce like 2004? You just absolutely contradicted yourself.

Green_Monster
4 years 5 months ago

Go to a dictionary and search the word “Something”. Come back later, and tell me what you found.

4 years 5 months ago

“something like” would refer to producing near that year’s production. $12 Million called for about a third of that production, at least in terms of WAR. (1 WAR= $5 million, Beltre posted around 10 WAR in 2004).

notsureifsrs
4 years 5 months ago

no doubt beltre isn’t a perennial 7 WAR guy, so you’re right about that. but it is what he gave the 2010 club. so in terms of projecting how much better they’ll be this year, that’s the version of beltre you have to use

in terms of whether or not he should have been signed? you’re right that you definitely don’t use 7 WAR as the baseline. it was a good no-sign by boston

Green_Monster
4 years 5 months ago

I 100% agree to that, great post.

NomarGarciaparra
4 years 5 months ago

Wait…according to baseball-reference, Beltre posted 6.1 WAR while Gonzalez posted 6.3 WAR.
But since I’m not very familiar with how WAR is calculated…I won’t go further with this.

4 years 5 months ago

Fangraphs has him at 7.1. I’m pretty sure Fangraphs likes his defense a lot more. I tend to side with Fangraphs, but that’s just personal preference.

notsureifsrs
4 years 5 months ago

you’re welcome to use whatever you’d like, but sean smith’s (b-r) WAR weights defense less heavily and uses a significantly less precise measure of defense (Total Zone) than fangraphs (UZR). smith uses TZ because it can be determined for every player in history, while UZR data only goes back to 2002

beltre posted a +4 TZ rating last year, and +11.8 UZR

gonzalez posted a +7 TZ rating last year, and +1.1 UZR

notsureifsrs
4 years 5 months ago

you have to remember that beltre produced a .390 wOBA with A+ defense at third base last year. that’s valuable as hell

projecting gonzalez at better than 7 WAR is actually a bit outlandish. he could do it, but shouldn’t be expected to

4 years 5 months ago

Exactly. A-Gone is a great player. But Beltre had a special year last year. I don’t get why it’s bad to say Gonzales shouldn’t be expected to post 7 WAR? He obviously could, but that would take the best year of his career.

Green_Monster
4 years 5 months ago

I know WAR is a good stat. But its saying Wins Above Replacement. Its not like one player wins a baseball game. Its a team, so if one player gets replaced, it “shouldn’t” change a lot.

4 years 5 months ago

Isn’t Youkillis replacing Beltre at 3b? I don’t see how that’s a drop off. AGon is replacing Youk, which isn’t a drop off. Crawford is replacing…. Cameron? Yeah, Cameron was hurt last year but he’d be starting this year so Crawford is replacing him, that’s an improvement. Overall the Red Sox got better.

4 years 5 months ago

Well if Youk is replacing Beltre, and A-Gone is replacing Youk, it’s basically replacing Beltre with Gonzales, at least in terms of production lost/gained.

notsureifsrs
4 years 5 months ago

you can’t count crawford replacing cameron without counting saltalamacchia replacing martinez

halored101
4 years 5 months ago

We’ll see how you feel about Crawford in a couple years at his current salary, Gonzalez will hold good value for some time.

NomarGarciaparra
4 years 5 months ago

I’ll feel better than I would feel if it was Beltre…or Martinez.

MaineSox
4 years 5 months ago

A couple years? You mean when he’s 31? Reasonable people do expect his speed to break down some in the later part of his contract, but they usually assume it will be closer to 34 not when he’s 31. Unless of course you are implying that he isn’t worth the money to begin with and then we have a whole separate issue.

4 years 5 months ago

Because they got A-Gone? That’s a valid reason. But because he strained his calf? That’s a minor injury, and probably not much to worry about

johnsilver
4 years 5 months ago

Beltre is going to play GG caliber defense regardless at 3B for a few years for texas, that is a given and Youk probably just average. other than that? Boston comes out winner in every other aspect of the switch from Youk to beltre swap at 3B. Youk gets on base far more and you know he is not going to have an up and down year with the bat.

Green_Monster
4 years 5 months ago

Youk will also do better, if he is not injured a lot. Same with Pedey and Ells.

notsureifsrs
4 years 5 months ago

they lose 7 WAR from 3rd base and replace it with, hopefully around 5 WAR from youk. it all depends on how he holds up defensively

at first, it’s pretty much a wash. adrian is a fantastic hitter and a good 1st baseman, but so was youkilis

the outfield is a massive upgrade, but the catching situation could be a pretty heavy downgradefrom martinez’s 4 WAR

ultimately the best things the red sox have going for them is (presumably) full healthy seasons from the group of starts injured last year and a much improved bullpen

johnsilver
4 years 5 months ago

That is based on what at 3B? Just last season? Have to hope that Beltre can maintain the tremendous season he had if it is and I am thinking he ill regress some, but not nearly as much as the Beltre nay sayers are talking about.

Granted massive improvement with the OF and only mentioned 3B cause was the closest position the team upgraded with Youk over Beltre and no need really to rate Youk/Gonzo with Youk just switching positions.

notsureifsrs
4 years 5 months ago

Position * 2010 WAR * 2011 WAR

3B * 7.1 * 4 – 6

1B * 4.2 * 6

LF * 1.5 * 5 – 6

C * 4.1 * 1 – 2

OVR * 17 * 16-19

as has been said, it’s the

notsureifsrs
4 years 5 months ago

can’t edit comments anymore either. tricksy

as has been said, it’s the full seasons this year from injured stars last year that will make the biggest difference*

BoSoXaddict
4 years 5 months ago

Don’t discount the possibility of Youk playing GG caliber D at 3rd. It is his natural position after all and word is he is very happy to be back there.

4 years 5 months ago

If the White Sox do indeed fall out of contention (which I doubt, though I see why some people could imagine), KW better be doing everything he can to upgrade the farm system. If Peavy can be traded (he’d obviously have to do a lot to prove he can be traded), the money coming off the books would be huge, and hopefully the Sox could regain a respectable farm system.

4 years 5 months ago

I think revenue sharing is a good idea, but they need a salary floor for it to work properly. Teams shouldn’t be able to pocket the money.

And why would the players union ever be against a salary floor, it would drive up players salary slightly.

4 years 5 months ago

Agree 100%. The Salary Floor is absolutely necessary. While I would like a salary cap, I doubt it could happen, but I think MLB really needs to make some serious changes in the next CBA

4 years 5 months ago

I’d like to see them implement the floor first, and see what takes effect there, then it would show if a salary cap is needed.

I am not sure if would solve that much, unlike other sports, a team can put money in places besides player salary, teams like the Yankees will just put more money into minor league development and international scouting. Which might make it even worse, because the Yankees may not end up with a team like this year, with a lot of question marks, they will always have a fresh young team full of talent. All other sports the draft and free agency are the only ways to add players, baseball has international players, and there is much more player development after the draft.

I say, implement a salary floor, revamp revenue sharing, and make it so the mlb average team salary goes up so teams can compete with the Red Sox and Yankees for high ticket free agents, which will spread them out and create more parity.

4 years 5 months ago

There’s only so much you can spend on scouting before you’re wasting it. Though the Yanks may have a slight advantage there, I think it would not be a great difference.

4 years 5 months ago

If I could like that twice I would.

4 years 5 months ago

I like UZR is the better form of calculating defense than what B-ref uses. I think it’s really hard to say exactly how valuable defense is, but I personally like how much Fangraphs values defense.

notsureifsrs
4 years 5 months ago

“WAY to much value on defense in the Fangraphs calculation”

show your work

4 years 5 months ago

But then again, it doesn’t show I like it because there’s no room to show it.

4 years 5 months ago

Pierre actually had a good year by UZR last year. But the rest of the team is well below average, with Paul Konerko and Carlos Quentin being the worst players at their positions defensively. So yeah, I’d say their defense is horrible. However, UZR deos have a tendency to vary, so it can’t always be trusted for one year. But if you take it over a multi-year span, it’s as close as possible (not counting the new data that MLB has not given to the public).

notsureifsrs
4 years 5 months ago

+1 for super ironic opening line

Look at their positional value that is given for Beltre playing third base, at least a 2. Now look at Youkilis’ positional value at first base, a -7. That is a HUGE difference, one which will be closed when Youkilis is given the positional value of a third baseman rather than a first baseman.

“the difference will be closed” when youk moves to third? yes, he he will see a bonus from the value of 3B, but he’ll also see his plus-plus defense at first drop likely into slightly negative UZR territory. now because of the positional value difference, this means he still probably won’t drop below 5 WAR, which is exactly what i just said wise guy

still, the difference between beltre’s defense over youk’s is greater than the differences between beltre’s 2010 and youkilis’ regular offense. no 7 WAR at third for the greek god of walks. 4-6 is a safe range

I think its very presumptuous to assume that Youkilis is only going to be an average defender at third base

that’s fine, but is it based on anything? i like youk, but he’s a 1st baseman about to turn 32 moving back to a position at which he’s never even played half a season. plus defense would be a surprise

4 years 5 months ago

It was fun reading everyone’s thoughts on this…

Green_Monster
4 years 5 months ago

Well this is awkward. But lets see how small it will go.

4 years 5 months ago

I can’t reply to Green Monster anymore, the button disappeared. I think this is as small as it will go.

4 years 5 months ago

The problem is sample size. UZR varies from year to year, because it depends on some stats out of a fielder’s control. However, when it is looked at over a span of three seasons, it seems to be a great judger of talent.

notsureifsrs
4 years 5 months ago

even if that were true, your proposal appears to be that we should eyeball it instead – which is hilarious, since your criticism is about accuracy and reliability. total zone is much less precise than UZR, so i know you’re not advocating that

but back to reality: UZR is not actually so unreliable. a larger-than-average sample is required before drawing firm conclusions about a player’s overall ability, but this is not due strictly to UZR, but also the nature of defense itself and the way it must be measured

these variations year over year that people get worked about aren’t some kind of problem with the stat. again, it’s about what happens on the field. consider what “line drive” means. it’s not a perfectly specific thing – neither is fly ball. the variations in the velocity and trajectory of these things are enormous, and any given fielder sees a wide variety of different types of each during a season

in other words, the distribution of sharply hit balls to slow flies will obviously influence a fielder’s zone rating. and because there isn’t a real solid “average” distribution of this sort of thing – let alone where the balls will end up — until a very large sample is compiled, UZR data is limited the same way. that very obviously doesn’t make UZR unreliable. it’s giving you information directly. but there is a ton of variance in what it is measuring, so you have to be patient before drawing firm conclusions

absolutely none of this means that one season of UZR data is meaningless, or less meaningful. it still tells you what happened on the field, and value calculations are made based on what happened

notsureifsrs
4 years 5 months ago

with all due respect, this is a very useful because now everyone who may have found your other comments intuitively appealing can see that you don’t know what you’re talking about

WAR doesn’t tells you what you think it does; it’s as simple as that

notsureifsrs
4 years 5 months ago

“You yourself said that Youkilis is a “plus plus defender”, yet his UZR last year was a 1.0? Where does a 1.0 UZR equate to a “plus plus defender”?”

you’re very confused about UZR and i don’t know if i’m willing to walk you through it when better-written explanations are a google away. the conclusions that youkilis is a plus-plus defender comes from an adequate sample (3 full seasons worth) of UZR data, and doesn’t mean that his 2010 UZR rating is “incorrect” or inaccurate

notsureifsrs
4 years 5 months ago

you yourself say youkis is a “great” hitter, but his OBP was only .327 in july of 2009. i think you’re putting too much stock in this crazy OBP thing

notsureifsrs
4 years 5 months ago

unreliable for a sound conclusion about the player’s ability. which i’ve acknowledged more than twice. it doesn’t mean 1 year of data is “wrong”. i mean how could you even possibly believe that. seriously

“this player hit .350 in june, .220 in july, and .342 in august. clearly july’s batting average is wrong”

no, that is ridiculous. it is still telling you the same exactly thing. but as with any statistic, an adequate sample is required before drawing a conclusion about the player’s ability. this is the same exact thing with UZR, the sample just needs to be larger because of what is being measured, as i literally just explained

notsureifsrs
4 years 5 months ago

+2 for double use of “your”; -3 for saving-face fail

and unfortunately i think in your case we do have an adequate sample to determine your overall ability

notsureifsrs
4 years 5 months ago

there’s no way anyone could read my comments and come away thinking that i think that. so if you’re not reading, what are you doing?

(i know the answer, but troll harder)

notsureifsrs
4 years 5 months ago

+100 for “grammer”. last time i’m gonna help you:

WAR doesn’t tell you, in your words, “Adres Torres, Kelly Johnson and Brett Gardner are better players than Adrian Gonzalez, Hanley Ramirez and Chase Utley”

do you even know what WAR stands for? it’s an acronym. do you know how the wins are calculated? these are basically rhetorical questions

again, to illustrate how absurd your logic is: last year Placido Polanco hit for a higher average than david wright. viewing that, do we say “polanco is a better contact hitter than david wright”?

no, because we’re not insane. last year aubrey huff had a higher wOBA than evan longoria. do we say huff is a better overall hitter than longoria? no we don’t

last year Adres Torres, Kelly Johnson and Brett Gardner produced more wins above replacement level than Adrian Gonzalez, Hanley Ramirez and Chase Utley. it is a fact of the world. and yet, it doesn’t encourage anyone with a brain to conclude that the former are better players than the latter

notsureifsrs
4 years 5 months ago

you’re getting warmer

one month is an inadequate sample of [OBP] to draw any solid conclusion about a player’s ability. AND YET, the anomalous month of low OBP is not wrong, or any less reliable than any other month

so it goes with one year of UZR, except the time scale is different. because individual fielding is different from individual hitting in a number of very important ways,(some of which i’ve explained to you in this very thread), we need a much larger sample – 3 seasons, approx – before we can draw very firm conclusions about a player’s defensive ability

this doesn;t make any one year of data “worthless” at all

GoAwayNow
4 years 5 months ago

No, he’s mocking you.

notsureifsrs
4 years 5 months ago

in your next comment, quote exactly where i drew the conclusion that beltre is better than gonzalez . if you say anything other than that i will understand you to be admitting that i never said any such thing and you’re sorry for being so weird and wrong today

notsureifsrs
4 years 5 months ago

in your next comment, quote exactly where i pretended one year of UZR data is all that is needed to establish a player’s ability. if you say anything other than that i will understand you to be admitting that i never said any such thing and you’re sorry for being so weird and wrong today

MaineSox
4 years 5 months ago

I got this one for you blackcourt:

“we need a much larger sample – 3 seasons, approx – before we can draw very firm conclusions about a player’s defensive ability”.

No wait, that’s not what I meant.

“the conclusions that youkilis is a plus-plus defender comes from an adequate sample (3 full seasons worth) of UZR data…”

err… umm…

notsureifsrs
4 years 5 months ago

the silence is glorious

wickedkevin
4 years 5 months ago

annnnd ban. haha