Davidoff On Red Sox, CBA, Rangers, Darvish

In today's column, Ken Davidoff of Newsday tackles a number of topics including what's next for Boston.  Here are some highlights..

  • When the dust settles, the Red Sox are expected to name Ben Cherington as Theo Epstein's successor in Boston.  While the club could take one step toward closing their credibility gap by hiring an experienced manager to complement their rookie GM, that's not likely to be the case.  The Red Sox already view Cherington as having GM experience because of the work he has done with the organization.  They'll more likely look to hire someone with a willingness to utilize statistical analysis and work with the rest of the baseball operations department.
  • This year, MLB and the Players Association had hoped to announced their next collective-bargaining agreement during the World Series like they did in 2006.  However, with the World Series just three days away, people in the loop aren't optimistic.   The two sides are meeting virtually every day and the biggest rancor appears to be surrounding Bud Selig's desire for hard slotting in the amateur draft.  It's hard to imagine that this will result in any kind of a work stoppage, but it does seem like they'll miss out on the great PR opportunity that they were able to capture five years ago.
  • We don't see the Rangers and Angels as trading partners because there's too much anxiety over being burned.  However, the Rangers used to admire Halos catcher Mike Napoli from a distance, and were able to trade for him immediately after the Blue Jays acquired him.  Davidoff asked Daniels if he kept an eye on players in the divison whom he couldn't acquire by trade but could hope would get dealt to a different club so he could pounce.  For Daniels, it's not that clear-cut, but he says that he checks in when someone he's interested in moves out of the AL West.
  • Baseball officials are increasingly convinced that righthander Yu Darvish will be posted to the major leagues, and industry folks wonder how much will teams pay.  The Red Sox paid more than $51MM five years ago to talk with Daisuke Matsuzaka, and that hasn't panned out for them. The expectation is that in light of Boston's disappointment with Matsuzaka, teams won't bid as much for Darvish.

32 Responses to Davidoff On Red Sox, CBA, Rangers, Darvish Leave a Reply

  1. jammin502 4 years ago

    If I was an MLB team, I would be extremely cautious in bidding on a player from Japan.  How many have transitioned successfully?  Ichiro … am I missing anybody else?

    • NOPE…that would be in. Fukudome is decent but thats about it.

      • Joshua Edwards 4 years ago

        The word is “decent” for Fukudome and not anything else.

        Put it this way, you can get the same type of player in the big leagues already and he doesn’t cost half of Fukudome’s 12 million per year he got the last four seasons. He’s a truly expensive .370 OBP with no power or much ability to drive in runs.

    • MaineSox 4 years ago

      Hideki Matsui, Takashi Saito, Hiroki Kuroda, Koji Uehara, Hideo Nomo

      • safari_punch 4 years ago

        Don’t forget Sasaki, the Mariners closer.

    • David Orcheese.

    • Matt Moore 4 years ago

      Well a player from Japan has just as good of a shot at being a good ML player as one from the US or Dominican or Venezuela. Unless there is somthing bad in the water there…

    • U forgot hideo nomo

  2. Japan has sent MLB like three players who were actually good for more than one or two seasons: Ichiro, Hideo Nomo and Hideki Matsui.  The “pipeline” to the Nippon League is pretty much busted.  Most of these players have been pitchers, and once they get figured out by MLB hitters, they never adjust and fade into obscurity and go back to Japanese League.  When I hear that Japan is “AAAA” ball, I just laugh.  AAA has sent hundreds of players to MLB that have been good-great.  Japan has sent three.

  3. It not in* LOL

  4. $6101468 4 years ago

    Is a player an FA failure over injuries? Dice-K had two very nice seasons in Boston and then a series of physical malfunctions when in his previous history only one significant injury happened and that was years prior to signing with Boston.  This was not a Pedro situation that had red flags all over the place.  To me an FA failure is one that is performance based – hello, John Lackey! – or fails because of a significant buyer beware injury history and not a breakdown half way into a contract.

    With the premium on pitching someone will pay and pay heavily for just the promise.

    • NomarGarciaparra 4 years ago

      But even in Dice-K’s “outstanding” 2008 season, he was as shaky as any pitcher can be. It was nerve-wrecking watching him pitch. It was almost magical how he was able to escape bases-loaded jams every inning! But obviously, all good things come to an end…the magic is gone.

  5. Yu Darvish’s numbers are ten times better than Daisuke’s were. He will translate perfectly in the bigs. I would sign him in a heart beat.

    • johnsmith4 4 years ago

      I too would sign Darvish in a heart beat….but….I don’t have any money…..or….a baseball team for that matter.

    • jwredsox 4 years ago

      No proof of that. All we know is the myth of Japanese players far outweighs the results. For all we know, the league could be a lot weaker now then when Dice-K was there. Plus, MLB dropouts still make it there pretty easy. To expect him to translate perfectly is foolish. I’ve read scouting reports that tag him as a mid-rotation guy at best. Like a #3 starter. 

  6. BlueSkyLA
    BlueSkyLA 4 years ago

    Trivia question: To date, Yu Darvish has pitched in only one MLB stadium. Which one, and when?

    • johnsmith4 4 years ago

      Must be Skydome….ooops…I meant Rogers Centre

    • PetCo Park. Yeah I googled it. What are you gonna do about it?

      • johnsmith4 4 years ago

        I was too lazy to google it…but…knew some of the games were played in Toronto

      • BlueSkyLA
        BlueSkyLA 4 years ago

        Hmm, maybe more than one stadium can make this claim. I sure wasn’t thinking of the either the Skydome or PetCo.

      • It’s settled! Darvish to SD! jk

  7. woadude 4 years ago

    I hate when people say the Dice K deal didnt pan out for the Red Sox, he came over and pitched like advertised, I mean I forgot, did they not win in 2007? Would they have without Dice K? and 2008 was a pretty good year, now 2009, and 2010 was rough but I think he was just mishandled. All in all, aside from a posting fee, he was very solid for 50 million, and netted the Red Sox a world series chamionship, that doesn’t sound like a bust to me, and to further conclude my point, his contract is up this year and he will not hinder the team going forward, so that is the whole result to be judged by.

  8. Bud Selig’s desire for hard slotting in the amateur draft is almost as stupid as his idea of moving the Astros to the AL West.

  9. Justanotherfantoo 4 years ago

    When Matsuzaka was posted, Red Sox fans — I mean journalists — like Peter Gammons reported that the Red Sox would not be very aggressive in their bid and that the Yankees would be all but certain to win the rights to negotiate with him with, as I recall, a $30-something million bid.

    Here we go again…  In light of their disappointment with Matsuzaka, the Red Sox won’t be very aggressive with Darvish.

    You bet.  Fool me once, shame on you.  Fool me twice, shame on me.

    The Yankees should know better by now than to believe anything Gammons or other Red Sox fans and Yankee haters report.

  10. Justanotherfantoo 4 years ago

    Anyone care to predict what the winning bid will be?

    I will be shocked if it’s not way, way, way, way higher than the $50 or so million that netted Matsuzaka for the Red Sox.

    I will also be shocked if the media doesn’t bang the drum for how it will be a humiliation for Japan if Darvish doesn’t take whatever the Red Sox offer if they’re the highest bidder (as they did with Matsuzaka) and reverse it and emphasize that the Yankees are humiliating Japan by offering less than $20 something million per year if the Yankees win it.

    Gammons and the rest of the mostly Red Sox loving/Yankee hating media couldn’t be much more two faced if they were Siamese twins.

  11. safari_punch 4 years ago

    One thing to remember is that Darvish is HALF- Japanese. You can take that for what it’s worth. 

    I think it’s harder to project the starting pitchers that come over because they’re used to being on a pitching schedule similar to college baseball players, pitching once a week. Darvish being physically built differently than a traditional Japanese player – and there are exceptions (Nomo very endomorph) – scouts should feel more confident that Darvish would hold up to the increased workload of an MLB schedule.

    There is really nothing out there as far as MLB free agents starters go. Who on earth would give C.J. Wilson $100 MM? That is absurd. I’d roll the dice with someone like Darvish every day all day for all the extra revenues he’ll bring in being a star player in Japan, no matter how many innings are on his young arm – because those innings are spread out over one week periods as oppose to every 4 or 5 days.

  12. If I were Darvish I would gamble it all on how well I perform when I first come over. I have heard he is projected to adapt to the states better because he has lived here before as a child then say dice k.

    anyways to my point if I were darvish I would tell whatever team posted for me I will take a 2 year deal. If he comes over here and is as good as advertised then 2 years he should establish himself and judging fromt he contracts 2 years as good as he is advertised should net him a 100mm contract. I mean look people think that wilson will get 100mm and how many good years has he had?! You know that whoever wins the bid will be reluctant to spend a large amount of money on him given that they would have already posted the fee.

    I know he will be a free agent in 3 years however even if he continues to dominate the japanese leagues I do not see him getting as large of a contract as he would if he signed a short term deal here and dominated.

    I dont know if the team that signs him would want a short term deal because they obviously are thinking he will be a success so why sign him to a short deal to have him leave in 2 years and spend all that money. However it could also be a safety net I mean look at boston.

    And to those saying dice k was a success I disagree. Yes he pitched well for 2 years although more based on luck however the red sox paid a total of 106mm for 5 years of his services. 20 mil a year. Now was his performance worth that much? No way, thats lee/sabathia/halladay money.

    With that being said, I hope the tigers sign him.

  13. He had a BB/9 of over 5.  That’s worse than most wild relief pitchers.  He also had an FIP of ~4.00 and an xFIP of ~4.50.  His LOB% was over 80%. I agree the end results are nice, but you can’t argue he didn’t have a lot of good luck on his side.

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