Projected Arbitration Salaries For 2013

As explained in this series of posts, Matt Swartz has developed a very accurate model for MLBTR to project arbitration salaries.  We've heard from many MLB teams and agencies that reference the projections in their work.  By my count there are 213 remaining arbitration eligible players.   Click here to download an Excel spreadsheet with our projected salaries, or click below to see everything.

Angels (4)

  • Kendrys Morales – $4.8MM
  • Alberto Callaspo – $4.2MM
  • Jerome Williams – $1.9MM
  • Kevin Jepsen – $1.1MM

Astros (5)

  • Bud Norris – $2.9MM
  • Jed Lowrie – $1.9MM
  • Wilton Lopez – $1.4MM
  • Wesley Wright – $900K
  • Edgar Gonzalez – $800K

Athletics (9)

  • Dallas Braden – $3.4MM
  • Seth Smith – $3.3MM
  • Brandon Moss – $1.4MM
  • George Kottaras – $1.1MM
  • Daric Barton – $1.1MM
  • Joey Devine – $1.1MM
  • Jerry Blevins – $1MM
  • Pat Neshek – $900K
  • Adam Rosales – $700K

Blue Jays (7)

  • Colby Rasmus – $4.5MM
  • Rajai Davis – $3.9MM (arbitration eligible if $3MM option is declined)
  • J.A. Happ – $3.8MM
  • Mike Aviles – $2.3MM
  • Cory Wade – $700K
  • Bobby Wilson – $600K
  • David Herndon – $600K

Braves (10)

  • Martin Prado – $7.7MM
  • Jair Jurrjens – $5.5MM
  • Tommy Hanson – $4MM
  • Eric O'Flaherty – $3.8MM
  • Jason Heyward – $3.5MM
  • Kris Medlen – $2MM
  • Jonny Venters – $1.4MM
  • Paul Janish – $900K
  • Peter Moylan – $800K
  • Cristhian Martinez – $700K

Brewers (9)

  • John Axford – $5.1MM
  • Carlos Gomez – $3.4MM
  • Nyjer Morgan – $2.6MM
  • Jose Veras – $2.6MM
  • Kameron Loe – $2.6MM
  • Manny Parra – $1.6MM
  • Marco Estrada – $1.6MM
  • Travis Ishikawa – $900K
  • Chris Narveson – $800K

Cardinals (6)

  • Jason Motte – $4.7MM
  • Edward Mujica – $3.2MM
  • David Freese – $2.6MM
  • Kyle McClellan – $2.4MM
  • Mitchell Boggs – $1.3MM
  • Marc Rzepczynski – $900K

Cubs (5)

  • Matt Garza – $10MM
  • Jeff Samardzija – $2.9MM
  • Ian Stewart – $2.3MM
  • Luis Valbuena – $900K
  • James Russell – $900K

Diamondbacks (9)

  • Ian Kennedy – $4.2MM
  • Brad Ziegler – $2.4MM
  • Chris Johnson – $2.2MM
  • Cliff Pennington – $2.1MM
  • Gerardo Parra – $2.1MM
  • Matt Albers – $1.7MM
  • Brad Bergesen – $1MM
  • Wil Nieves – $800K
  • Mike Zagurski – $500K

Dodgers (1)

  • A.J. Ellis – $1.7MM
  • Ronald Belisario – $1.2MM

Giants (11)

  • Hunter Pence – $13.8MM
  • Brian Wilson – $8.5MM
  • Buster Posey – $5.9MM
  • Santiago Casilla – $5.4MM
  • Sergio Romo – $3.6MM
  • Jose Mijares – $1.6MM
  • Clay Hensley – $1.3MM
  • Gregor Blanco – $1.3MM
  • Joaquin Arias – $800K
  • Emmanuel Burriss – $600K
  • Eli Whiteside – $600K

Indians (10)

  • Shin-Soo Choo – $7.9MM
  • Chris Perez – $7.2MM
  • Justin Masterson – $5.7MM
  • Kevin Slowey – $2.8MM
  • Joe Smith – $2.7MM
  • Rafael Perez – $2MM
  • Jack Hannahan – $1.5MM
  • Tony Sipp – $1MM
  • Lou Marson – $800K
  • Brent Lillibridge – $700K

Mariners (5)

  • Jason Vargas – $7.4MM
  • Brendan Ryan – $2.3MM
  • John Jaso – $1.7MM
  • Shawn Kelley – $900K
  • Josh Kinney – $700K

Marlins (3)

  • Emilio Bonifacio – $2.5MM
  • Ryan Webb – $900K
  • Brett Hayes – $500K

Mets (7)

  • Mike Pelfrey – $5.7MM
  • Andres Torres – $3.2MM
  • Daniel Murphy – $3MM
  • Ike Davis – $2.8MM
  • Bobby Parnell – $1.5MM
  • Josh Thole – $1.2MM
  • Manny Acosta – $1.1MM

Nationals (10)

  • John Lannan – $5MM
  • Jordan Zimmermann – $4.9MM
  • Tyler Clippard – $4.6MM
  • Ian Desmond – $3.2MM
  • Tom Gorzelanny – $2.8MM
  • Ross Detwiler – $2.2MM
  • Drew Storen – $1.7MM
  • Jesus Flores – $1.2MM
  • Roger Bernadina – $1.1MM
  • Craig Stammen – $900K

Orioles (15)

  • Mark Reynolds – $8.9MM (arbitration eligible if $11MM club option is declined)
  • Jim Johnson – $6.9MM
  • Jason Hammel – $6.5MM
  • Matt Wieters – $4.6MM
  • Chris Davis – $3.3MM
  • Darren O'Day – $2.2MM
  • Robert Andino – $1.8MM
  • Tommy Hunter – $1.8MM
  • Nolan Reimold – $1MM
  • Brian Matusz – $1MM
  • Taylor Teagarden – $800K
  • Omar Quintanilla – $800K
  • Troy Patton – $800K
  • Steve Pearce – $700K
  • Lew Ford – $600K

Padres (9)

  • Chase Headley – $8.3MM
  • Clayton Richard – $5MM
  • Edinson Volquez – $4.6MM
  • Luke Gregerson – $3.2MM
  • Will Venable – $2.5MM
  • Everth Cabrera – $1.2MM
  • Joe Thatcher – $1.1MM
  • John Baker – $900K
  • Kyle Blanks – $600K

Phillies (3)

  • Nate Schierholtz – $1.6MM
  • Antonio Bastardo – $1.1MM
  • Kevin Frandsen – $800K

Pirates (8)

  • Joel Hanrahan – $6.9MM
  • Garrett Jones – $4.4MM
  • Jeff Karstens – $3.8MM
  • James McDonald – $3MM
  • Neil Walker – $2.9MM
  • Charlie Morton – $2.6MM
  • Gaby Sanchez – $1.8MM
  • Chris Resop – $1.3MM

Rangers (4)

  • Matt Harrison – $6.1MM
  • David Murphy – $5.6MM
  • Geovany Soto – $4.6MM
  • Neftali Feliz – $3.1MM

Rays (8)

  • David Price – $9.5MM
  • Jeff Niemann – $3.1MM
  • Ryan Roberts – $3MM
  • Matt Joyce – $2.6MM
  • Ben Francisco – $1.7MM
  • Burke Badenhop – $1.6MM
  • Sean Rodriguez – $1.2MM
  • Sam Fuld – $500K

Red Sox (11)

  • Jacoby Ellsbury – $8.1MM
  • Andrew Bailey – $3.9MM
  • Jarrod Saltalamacchia – $3.9MM
  • Alfredo Aceves – $2.6MM
  • Craig Breslow – $2.4MM
  • Ryan Sweeney – $1.8MM
  • Daniel Bard – $1.6MM
  • Andrew Miller – $1.4MM
  • Franklin Morales – $1.4MM
  • Rich Hill – $1.1MM
  • Scott Atchison – $800K    

Reds (9)

  • Homey Bailey – $5.1MM
  • Mat Latos – $4.6MM
  • Mike Leake – $2.9MM
  • Drew Stubbs – $2.9MM
  • Bill Bray – $1.5MM
  • Chris Heisey – $1.3MM
  • Wilson Valdez – $1MM
  • Logan Ondrusek – $900K
  • Alfredo Simon – $800K    

Rockies (5)

  • Dexter Fowler – $4MM
  • Tyler Colvin – $1.9MM
  • Jhoulys Chacin – $1.6MM
  • Jonathan Herrera – $800K
  • Josh Outman – $600K

Royals (6)

  • Luke Hochevar – $4.4MM
  • Chris Volstad – $3MM
  • Felipe Paulino – $2.7MM
  • Chris Getz – $1.2MM
  • Brayan Pena – $1.1MM
  • Blake Wood – $600K

Tigers (9)

  • Max Scherzer – $7.5MM
  • Rick Porcello – $4.7MM
  • Doug Fister – $3.8MM
  • Austin Jackson  -$3.1MM
  • Alex Avila – $2.5MM
  • Brennan Boesch – $2.1MM
  • Ryan Raburn – $2.1MM
  • Phil Coke – $1.7MM
  • Don Kelly – $900K

Twins (4)

  • Jared Burton – $2.1MM
  • Alexi Casilla – $1.8MM
  • Brian Duensing – $1.3MM
  • Drew Butera – $500K

White Sox (4)

  • Gordon Beckham – $3.1MM
  • Alejandro De Aza – $1.7MM
  • Dan Johnson – $1.2MM
  • Philip Humber – $1.1MM

Yankees (7) 

  • Phil Hughes – $5.7MM
  • Casey McGehee – $2.9MM
  • Brett Gardner – $2.8MM
  • Boone Logan – $2.8MM
  • David Robertson – $2.7MM
  • Joba Chamberlain – $1.8MM
  • Jayson Nix – $900K


Leave a Reply

22 Comments on "Projected Arbitration Salaries For 2013"


Natsfan89
2 years 10 months ago

Goodbye John Lannan and Jesus Flores, thanks for your service during the bad times.

CT
2 years 10 months ago

Jurrjens will be non-tendered before the Braves pay him 5.5m.

OptimusSmoltz
2 years 10 months ago

Agreed, him and Janish are the 2 that I’m pretty sure are gone. Moylan is possibly a non-tender, too.

tomymogo
2 years 10 months ago

Moylan and Janish may come back, Pastornicky is really struggling in winter ball, and they need a backup SS in case of injury, and Moylan was pretty solid and cheap

mike
2 years 10 months ago

Giants won’t be keeping wilson or casilla. Good riddance with casilla but can’t say the same for Wilson.

bonds2425
2 years 10 months ago

I can see Casilla leaving but Wilson is different. Even coming off TJ, a closer like him could even get 10 a year. Could you imagine an 8th and 9th with romo and Wilson? With Lopez and affeldt in the 7th and 6th if needed. The way their bullpen pitches started only need to go 6 to lock up a game. 5 if the bullpen is rested and its starting to get rocky. Wilson is a guy I think they want back and if they choose to gamble with him on the open market his price is only going to go up.

mike
2 years 10 months ago

Coming off Tommy John is a big risk. He’s a good clubhouse guy to have no doubt and I would love to see him in the 9th with Romo setting him up in the 8th but that is still a lot of money to be owed.. with rowands contract being over and Zito being in his last year, I could see the giants possibly taking up the arbitration.

OptimusSmoltz
2 years 10 months ago

TJ isn’t the risk that it used to be…for just over $12 million, SF could have Romo and Wilson at the backend of a pen that was their postseason MVP.

55saveslives
2 years 10 months ago

I’d decline arbitration and try to sign him cheaper. Wilson knows what a risk it is. But he’s also very marketable. 1 yr 5 mill

Jwick22
2 years 10 months ago

cut ties with jj and try moving hanson. that 9.5 could be used for other needs

Jeff
2 years 10 months ago

Hanson’s still a bounceback candidate, I’d give him one more year, and if you don’t get much in trade, keep him. I’d non-tender JJ, EOF, and Janish (EOF and Janish I’d try to re-sign to reasonable deals)

tomymogo
2 years 10 months ago

3.8 mill is pretty reasonable for EOF

Need Pitching & Hitting
2 years 10 months ago

I believe Chris Dickerson and Francisco Cervelli are both Super 2 eligible for the Yankees. I believe September call ups brought Dickerson to 2 years, 171 days and Cervelli to 2 years, 146 days of service time.

2 years 10 months ago

You need 86 days in the most recent year to become a Super Two, so they don’t qualify.

Need Pitching & Hitting
2 years 10 months ago

Did not know that. Thanks.

Dirtbag Blues
2 years 10 months ago

Aj Ellis doesn’t need a salary. He plays for the love of walking.

Joe Who
2 years 10 months ago

Could you explain what’s driving your projection for Gordon Beckham? $3MM seems high for a first year arb player who has been worth ~1WAR the past three years.

AVinny GarSac
2 years 10 months ago

First of all, WAR is a pretty useless stat, especially when trying to calculate a market value for a player. If you actually take the time to look up other middle IFs around the league to see what they have been getting paid, then compare that to what Beckham has done… you’ll see were the estimation comes from. I personally think it’s a bit high, as it should be more around $2M. Then, when you see guys like Andino making $1.3M, Y. Escobar making $5M, Getz making just under $1M, A Escobar making over $2.5M, Casilla making $1.38M, etc… and understand that Beckham’s performance would rank well with these guys over all… you start to see where that assessment comes from.

-C
2 years 10 months ago

WAR is actually quite useful for determining market value. It’s not good for determining arbitration values, which are not full market values. As you mention, comparables and traditional stats are more in-line with how you would determine arbitration pay.

-C

tomymogo
2 years 10 months ago

Tommy Hanson 4 million……Medlen and him should switch places salary wise if this is true

tomymogo
2 years 10 months ago

I would sign Heyward, Medlen, Kimbrel, and Prado long term, save a few bucks and have them beyond their arb years

tomymogo
2 years 10 months ago

So according to this Braves have 65.5 million assuming they pick up the options for Maholm, Hudson, and McCann and non-tender Jurrjens. They also have to pay the league minimum to Kimbrel, Freeman, Beachy, Avilan, Minor, etc. Assuming they are 9 players making the minimum that’s about 4.5 million, so they have about 70 million committed to this team right now.

Lets just assume payroll will stay the same and change with inflation to about 95 million, that means they have 25 million to spend this offseason and need to sign 3 bench guys(including a backup catcher), a CF, and a LF or 3B. The 3 bench guys probably would require 5 million, so that means they have 20 million for a CF/leadoff hitter and LF/right handed power hitter.