Golden Eagles To Post Masahiro Tanaka

WEDNESDAY, 3:32pm: Tanaka's posting will begin Thursday morning and be completed by January 24th at 4pm CT, a source tells Mark Feinsand of the New York Daily News (on Twitter).  Teams can place their bids – up to $20MM, of course – starting tomorrow morning (link).

TUESDAY, 9:50pm: Rakuten Golden Eagles president Yozo Tachibana announced that Tanaka will be posted, according to a tweet from Sankei Sports tranlsated by Dylan Hernandez of the Los Angeles Times (Twitter links).

9:23pm: The Golden Eagles will announce momentarily that Tanaka will be posted, according to Jim Allen of Kyodo News (on Twitter).

5:35pm: The Rakuten Golden Eagles have decided to post star pitcher Masahiro Tanaka, according to reports from Japanese outlets Sponichi (link) and Nikkan Sports (link).  It's a turnaround from reports last week that indicated the Golden Eagles were leaning against allowing Tanaka to make the jump to MLB.

One MLB source tells David Kaplan of CSNChicago.com (on Twitter) that he believes the Cubs will not be outbid for Tanaka's services.  Convincing Tanaka to come to Chicago, however, could prove to be problematic, according to that source.  "This is exactly type deal that Theo [Epstein and] Jed Hoyer will be all in on. However, will Tanaka say no to the [Yankees, Dodgers, and others]? Not sure he will," the source told Kaplan (link).

Bruce Levine of 670thescore.com (Twitter link) adds that the Angels and Diamondbacks – who have been quite vocal about their fondness of Tanaka and overall need for a frontline starter – should also be in the mix for his services.  Tanaka being posted also means good news for other free agent pitchers who have been in a holding pattern as clubs have waited for the top domino to drop.  

Rakuten was planning a record NPB offer for Tanaka – roughly $7.7MM USD – but that's significantly less than what he's expected to get from an MLB club.  One GM recently told Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com that Tanaka was certain to receive a deal worth more than $100MM if posted.

Per the Sponichi report, team President Yozo Tachibana acknowledged that the process is moving into its final stage.  When asked if the team was set on a decision, Tachibana said, "Yes, it looks that way … We're completing the final procedures."

It seems likely that the Golden Eagles have been dragging their feet in large part because of the reduced posting fee that they would receive under the new system.  While the Japanese clubs holding the rights to predecessors such as Daisuke Matsuzaka and Yu Darvish saw major financial windfalls, the new system caps Rakuten's maximum posting fee at $20MM.

Special thanks to Aaron Steen for his Japanese translation.


692 Responses to Golden Eagles To Post Masahiro Tanaka Leave a Reply

  1. LightUptheHalo 2 years ago

    So when does the actual bidding start?

    • Robert Muldhoon 2 years ago

      One day after the posting for 30 days only

  2. WhoKilledTheRallyMonkey 2 years ago

    I doubt LAA will land Tanaka but it should help make Garza more affordable.

    • GetTheRunnerOver 2 years ago

      What kinda deal does Garza get? like the Hughes one you think?

      • JSapp11 2 years ago

        No lol

      • WhoKilledTheRallyMonkey 2 years ago

        Garza will get more than Hughes. I’m think this will bring him down to 4/60 instead of 5/75

  3. PhillyYank 2 years ago

    Yankees fans are going to find a present under the tree from Santa Cashman.

    • Robert Muldhoon 2 years ago

      wont happen – he will cost 20 per at the minimum. Add in the 15 million dollar luxury tax and the stankees will be out of the bidding.

    • Bromacho 2 years ago

      Is it A-Rod

  4. livestrong77nyyankz 2 years ago

    I actually do predict the Cubs will get him, I hope I’m wrong and he winds up with the Yankees but that is just my gut feeling.

  5. southpaw777 2 years ago

    Nobody sees the red Sox as a possible destination? Teams have inquired about Lackey, Doubront and Peavy. Im sure they could move someone to make room. Besides, if they did go over the LT its only 17.5% and they have a lot of $$ coming off the books after 2014, so it would reset. Just a thought…

    • livestrong77nyyankz 2 years ago

      No I don’t see it sorry. The Red Sox will likely get higher offers on trades closer to spring training or at the very least once Tanaka is off the market.

  6. YankeeFan™ 2 years ago

    According to sources a official announcement of Tanaka Posting At 11am Japan time

  7. That Guy 2 years ago

    Nationals?

  8. Art Vandelet 2 years ago

    Come on, KIA Tigers! Time to make your move!

  9. northsfbay 2 years ago

    Yankees, Angels, Cubs, D’Backs names have been tied to Tanaka.

  10. Art Vandelet 2 years ago

    Breaking: Golden Eagles to Post Kevin Youkilis

    • Rook 2 years ago

      What would be really funny is if the Yankees put a max bid in on him.

  11. Brett Czerwinski 2 years ago

    Yankees had a 7 yr 140 mil offer for choo even after the Jacoby deal..they are going to go all out for tanaka

    • northsfbay 2 years ago

      I got raked through the coals earlier that I thought the Yankees will go all out for Tanaka. It is not what I want to happen, it is what I think will happen.

    • start_wearing_purple 2 years ago

      Them, and I suspect, the Mariners. If they spent everything big on just Cano then they’re still staring back in the standings.

    • Harrisonc27 2 years ago

      Thats a very good point

    • rouscher 2 years ago

      But they offered that before beltran, who knows how much they’re willing to spend now

  12. Teufelshunde4 2 years ago

    I would think the M’s go big for Tanaka. Keep young studs and spend the rest on Tanaka.

    • northsfbay 2 years ago

      The M’s have starting pitching prospects that are close to the majors. I would think they would spend their money on offense.

      • Teufelshunde4 2 years ago

        Who is left to spend those dollars on? All the talk of M’s goo g after Price. Tanaka would make more sense then depleting farm system for a rental player in Price.

        • Sky14 2 years ago

          I could see the M’s being serious players for Tanaka. They would have a rotation that would keep them competitive without needing much offense.

      • 王威評 2 years ago

        Ms have a Japanese owner group, they “always” had an extra budget for Japanese players.

  13. Blue387 2 years ago

    Paging Sandy Alderson to the white courtesy phone.

  14. Runtime 2 years ago

    In other news:
    AA, Kawasaki, and Tomo Ohka have been spotted in Japan.

    • TO647 2 years ago

      It would be amazing if having Ohka and Kawasaki on the Jays actually influenced Tanaka’s decision. It likely won’t though.

      • Runtime 2 years ago

        Kawasaki absolutely won’t…

        Ohka might… not much though.

  15. Robert Muldhoon 2 years ago

    Astropolis was banned from the M’s site, and now here she is again.

  16. Rook 2 years ago

    Hopefully the bidding process is pretty quick. I can’t really see any reason for that to take all that long. Most teams already know if they are putting up the $20 million or not.
    I wana see what the contract offers look like right out of the gate.

    • Robert Muldhoon 2 years ago

      Offers cannot be made until the day after he is posted. Then all teams have 30 days only to negotiate.

      • Robert Muldhoon 2 years ago

        However I believe the new agreement allows the teams with the top 3 offers to negotiate.

        • Rook 2 years ago

          From what I read, any team that puts up the $20 million will be allowed to talk contract with Tanaka. It won’t be limited to a certain number of teams.

      • Rook 2 years ago

        I thought there would be a couple days to get bids in, then the teams that fork over the $20 million could start negotiating.

  17. Damon Bowman 2 years ago

    The real question that needs to be answered is how long of a deal is Tanaka looking for. Does he want a 6- or 7-year deal where he all but guarantees only a deep-pocketed team can afford him or does he want to be crafty about it? If he turns out to be as good as expected, Tanaka might be better off taking a 3- or 4-year deal to get to 27 or 28 years old and then hit the market again before turning 30. He could cash in twice instead of signing a deal that would let him return to free agency after passing what would probably be his best seasons.

    • Phil Merkel 2 years ago

      Finally, someone with some brains. If Tanaka were smart, he would take a 3-5 year contract then become a FA…the shorter the contract length, the better his odds of making bucks later. In that short time he will be able to prove his worth very quickly…which I think he will.

  18. Mikel Grady 2 years ago

    People will quickly realize the cubs have deeper pockets than anyone and when they rebuild they will never look back as theo collects worlds series trophies .

    • Teufelshunde4 2 years ago

      Hahaha. Cubs have a really nice system except they are missing pitching at every level from rookie ball to the majors. Unless they can come up with butt load of pitching and fast, Theo will have to trade some of his prized hitting prospects for pitching. Never good to trade everday players for pitching since pitching breaks so easily. Cubs are on a good track. They have a ways to go to be truly competitive.

    • StevePegues 2 years ago

      You’re awfully close to a mad scientist “Fools! They’ll live to regret this!” style rant here.

  19. 714_ElHombre_714 2 years ago

    hope angels sign him
    1.jered weaver
    2.tanaka
    3.C.J wilson
    4.Garret richards
    5.Tyler skaggs

    • WhoKilledTheRallyMonkey 2 years ago

      Would be nice but the whole league will be in on Tanaka. It would be smart to scoop up Garza while the rest of the league is chasing Tanaka

      • 714_ElHombre_714 2 years ago

        Garza is plan B

      • Kyle 2 years ago

        Being un-biased: you really shouldn’t give Garza a lot of money/years. He’s not worth nearly what he’ll get paid.
        As a Rangers fan: I really hope you sign him : )

        • 714_ElHombre_714 2 years ago

          How long have you been a rangers fan since 2010

          • Kyle 2 years ago

            Early 90’s. Still clinging to 2002?

    • Teufelshunde4 2 years ago

      Angels need to try and get Trout signed long term before spending money on any other player. Dipoto was on Clubhouse confidential other day and got nasty when questions of try to sign Trout long term. Gotta wonder is the FO and Trout relationship is already strained?

      • Jose Ochoa 2 years ago

        dude hes under control for 4 more years by then weaver cj wells and hamiltons contract will be finished no matter what trout wont hit free agency till hes 30 angels have alot of money coming off the books in the next 2-3 years arte will make him the highest payed player in history mark my words he wont hit free agency

  20. Alex Rios 2 years ago

    Just do it Sabean

    • Adrian Garcia 2 years ago

      he’s spent all of his funds overpaying his own stars

      • northsfbay 2 years ago

        The big contracts on the Giants are Cain, Posey, Pence.

  21. Harrisonc27 2 years ago

    Honestly, I really like tanaka. It is a risk to sign him to a 7 yr 180-190 mil but he is worth the risk. I just hope he goes to the yanks

    • northsfbay 2 years ago

      A big contract to a pitcher is always a big risk. Pitchers break.

      • BCleveland3381 2 years ago

        The difference is most pitchers that sign that sort of deal in free agency are already 30 years old. If a team signs Tanaka for 7 years, his deal would end when he was 32.

        • northsfbay 2 years ago

          A 30 year old pitcher is a bigger risk. A pitcher at any age is a big risk.

    • Rook 2 years ago

      Thats not going to happen. There is no way he gets $27 million a year before throwing a pitch in the ML. He is not worth that kind of risk.

      • drwheelock 2 years ago

        That’s Arod money and Pujols money AAV, but those were also top AllSTars before they signed huge contracts. Tanaka hasn’t pitched 1 pitch in MLB yet. $20M/yr is even pushing it.

  22. dc21892 2 years ago

    That was the Japanese way of saying Merry Christmas.

  23. BCleveland3381 2 years ago

    Bottom line is this should get the free agent market going again. Teams are waiting on Tanaka before they start going after Garza, Santana, Jimenez, Arroyo, etc.

  24. 6/100-110 sounds about right. Go get him, Theo and Jed.

    • drwheelock 2 years ago

      I’m thinking 7/100-120

      • Doubt the Cubs would want to give a pitcher a 7-yr deal. Heck, I doubt they want to give a mostly unproven pitching commodity 6 years, but I think 6 is where negotiations will at least start.

  25. rouscher 2 years ago

    Amaro if you’re listening, get this one

  26. Eslva917 2 years ago

    2 year deal

  27. Michael Chin 2 years ago

    Matsui, Kuroda and Suzuki are on or has played on the Yankee. I’m sure some if not all of them would recruit Tanaka over to the Yankees. Especially with Yankees offering a top offer, there is no reason for Tanaka to not go to the Yankees. He is not a Grienke, he thrives in pressure most recently winning the NPB championship in 2013. Two top Japanese pitchers, two tall Dominicans and an obese black pitcher. #28 for NYY

    • DerekJeterDan 2 years ago

      Not to mention, Darrell Rasner, Andruw Jones, Casey Mcgehee and Kevin Youkilis are all playing for Rakuten now. They could also have some pull.

    • homunculus 2 years ago

      Yes, but they’ve also collectively played for teams like the Dodgers, Mariners, and Angels so I don’t think that is a major consideration in his mind.

    • drwheelock 2 years ago

      Let’s see Matsui Yankees wouldn’t resign, and Yankees are already talking about dumping Ichiro and trying to trade him already. His HOF years were in Seattle…not with the Yankees.

  28. s l e d g e 2 years ago

    Welcome to the NYY Tanaka! and have a very ho ho ho! Merry X-Mas everyone!

  29. homunculus 2 years ago

    Again… I’ll believe it when the actual words come out of Tachibana’s mouth. And there is already one Japanese newspaper saying he won’t be posted. These aren’t so much rumors as they are educated guesses.

  30. Bromacho 2 years ago

    Pot calling the kettle black. NYY can’t criticize other teams when it comes to bad long term deals.

    • Rev0lution 2 years ago

      And did Arte learn from that? NOOOOOO!!! He went out and did it not once, but twice and the Angels tanked both times.

      At least when the NYY overspends, there is October ball for their fans. I guess the Angel fans can always travel to Los Angeles and watch the Dodgers play in the fall.

      • LazerTown 2 years ago

        Isn’t that like a 5 hour drive…. each way?

  31. Kenneth Lichtig 2 years ago

    Arte will sign him. Have not been in the playoffs the last three years. Orange County natives are getting restless. Arte does not want attendance to decline

  32. FlaveFlava 2 years ago

    yay!

  33. LoneTXRanger 2 years ago

    I can see Darvish pulling Tanaka to Texas. I’m just not sure that they have the money Tanaka wants. ( may or may not be worth it) Then again, you can never count Daniels out.
    I can see Tanaka pulling a 5/6 yr $95-110mil

    • northsfbay 2 years ago

      The rumors are that the bidding is going over 100 mil.

      • LoneTXRanger 2 years ago

        I really hope that he doesn’t break the 100 mil amount. He is unproven, and is not a Darvish. I would rather miss on Tanaka then breaking the bank on a bust.

      • LoneTXRanger 2 years ago

        I really hope that he doesn’t break the 100 mil amount. He is unproven, and is not a Darvish. I would rather miss on Tanaka then breaking the bank on a bust.

    • pft2 2 years ago

      Darvish might be too jealous that the posting rules were not changed when he was posted. Also, Seattle, NY and Boston have Japanese pitchers on their staff who could influence him, and NY still has Ichiro.

    • pft2 2 years ago

      Darvish might be too jealous that the posting rules were not changed when he was posted. Also, Seattle, NY and Boston have Japanese pitchers on their staff who could influence him, and NY still has Ichiro.

    • Kyle 2 years ago

      I like Tanaka, but I’d rather extend Darvish. If they thought signing Tanaka would put any kind of strain on a new Darvish deal that’s where I would stop.

    • Anthony Hughes 2 years ago

      He’s going to get well over $100MM in my opinion. He’s regarded as being the top pitcher on the market by a wide margin. And the top free agents get crazy money now. And keep in mind, he’s 25! Most of the top free agents are nearly 30 or maybe even 30 already when they sign these big deals. He’s going to be highly sought after.

  34. 王威評 2 years ago

    IMO, only 3 teams have the chance to land Tanaka. NYY, SEA, LAD.
    West coast teams like angels, dodgers, mariners can easily explore Asian/Japan market. 20M posting fee is basically free of charge.
    Angels got some big contracts, and need to lock Trout, probably wont in it.
    luxury tax or not, never count out the Yankees.

    • Rev0lution 2 years ago

      Ahhh, a man with good common sense (except that part about including SEA – “it ain’t happenin’ with the NYY purse open and ready to dole out the dollars”).

      • 王威評 2 years ago

        And you do know Mariners is owned by a Japanese group, right?

        Ms “always” had an extra budget for Japanese players.

      • Leftover_stew 2 years ago

        Just like Robbie Can?

  35. pft2 2 years ago

    Don’t be surprised if the Red Sox sneak in here. They could then trade both Dempster and Peavy who are on the last year of their deals to make room and stay under 189. With the uncertainty of Buchholz shoulder and of pitching prospects in general, I can’t see them not being in on him.

    Yankees are in cheap mode now and probably won’t offer him enough to grab him since it will blow 189 out of the water, even if Arod gets suspended for a whole year.

  36. pft2 2 years ago

    Don’t be surprised if the Red Sox sneak in here. They could then trade both Dempster and Peavy who are on the last year of their deals to make room and stay under 189. With the uncertainty of Buchholz shoulder and of pitching prospects in general, I can’t see them not being in on him.

    Yankees are in cheap mode now and probably won’t offer him enough to grab him since it will blow 189 out of the water, even if Arod gets suspended for a whole year.

  37. Mark Tabello 2 years ago

    Tanaka has stated his desire to pitch on the west coast. That said Dodgers , Mariners seem to be most logical. Yankees , Angels , Cubs, Dback, will all be bidding to change his mind. I put my chips on the Dodgers at 6yrs/$126 million

    • BK 2 years ago

      Dodgers dont really have a need in the rotation. I bet 6/120 to the Angels.

      • Mark Tabello 2 years ago

        Agree the Angels have the bigger need but Dodgers are driven to be viewed as globally elite. Dodgers were trying to engage Rays on what it would take to get David Price in a trade so I’m sure they would rather pay $ for another front line starter than gutting their farm. If it’s not Dodgers I hope Angels do it. Even as a Dodgers fan I want to see Mike Trout play in October

      • homunculus 2 years ago

        While the Halos do need pitching more than the Dodgers, LAD will go after him if they want to make a serious run at the title. Billingsley won’t be back until May at the earliest and who knows what they will get from Beckett after his surgery. Billingsley, Beckett and most likely Haren won’t be around after this season so Tanaka would fit nicely in both the short term and long term plans of the Dodgers.

      • homunculus 2 years ago

        While the Halos do need pitching more than the Dodgers, LAD will go after him if they want to make a serious run at the title. Billingsley won’t be back until May at the earliest and who knows what they will get from Beckett after his surgery. Billingsley, Beckett and most likely Haren won’t be around after this season so Tanaka would fit nicely in both the short term and long term plans of the Dodgers.

  38. It’s official, he has been posted as the announcement comes from their team president according to Dylan Hernandez. Sweet, this is like the Offseason Part II. Going to be the Tanaka signing then all the other pieces come flying off the board. Might even sprinkle a Price trade in there. Really hope the Yankees scoop him up, but competition should be crazy.

  39. Visionsofsilver 2 years ago

    C’mon Dodgers!

  40. Visionsofsilver 2 years ago

    C’mon Dodgers!

  41. bobbleheadguru 2 years ago

    Merry Christmas…. Tigers Fans!

  42. Quikmix 2 years ago

    Awesome! Should be fun watching the bidding war. Here’s hoping the Angels at least take a shot and, if they don’t win, go after Garza.

    • s l e d g e 2 years ago

      i’m sure Arte is up to something. Uh oh…

  43. Shane Flannagan 2 years ago

    Lets go Cubs, need to get this guy. Pitching doesn’t look too bad if the Cubs could sign Tanaka. But, knowing our luck he will land with the Yankees or Dodgers

    • justinept 2 years ago

      The interesting part of this for me, as a Cubs fan, is seeing how much the Cubs offer. For the past two years, a large contingency of Cubs fans have complained that the Cubs are disguising their rebuilding efforts as an excuse to go cheap – that their refusal to enter free agent bidding wars isn’t because the club doesn’t want to pay 30-year old players for past performance, but instead, because the club doesn’t want to spend the money to put a representative team on the field. Well, this is going to come to a head with Tanaka. As a potential ace just entering his prime years, he represents Epstein’s first real chance of throwing money at a guy for future performance as opposed to past performance. I doubt they’ll land him, but anything short of a 7-year$116 million offer would be a huge blow to Epstein’s credibility for the remainder of the rebuild – or his tenure as Cubs President, whichever ends first.

      • Shane Flannagan 2 years ago

        There just hasn’t been any top free agents that fit the age range the Cubs needed to have when they were ready to contend. I think the Cubs will go out to get him

        • justinept 2 years ago

          I completely agree. That’s why I think anything short of a very serious bid would hurt Epstein’s credibility. He keeps saying that the Cubs aren’t entering bidding wars because investing long-term in 30-year old players based on past performance is bad business. He doesn’t have that excuse with Tanaka. He’s about to enter his prime and has the potential to be a star pitcher for a long time.

          For what it’s worth, I’m on board with the rebuild. I spent a number of years doing PR for minor league baseball teams, and the KC Cougars and Tennessee Smokies broadcasters are both close friends of mine. So I hear all about the legitimate talent that will be coming up in a few years.

        • Anthony Hughes 2 years ago

          I think the Cubs are going to have to have the largest bid BY FAR to get him. That’s what it’s going to take. Teams not contending have to do that. The Nationals did it with Werth, and the M’s just did it with Cano. The Tigers also did it with Pudge Rodriguez. If the Dodgers and Yankees are offering, say, 6 years and $100-110MM, the Cubs probably need to offer at least 7 years and at least $140MM. I don’t see Tanaka choosing to go there if the money is close with other teams that are contenders, particularly the Dodgers, since he apparently prefers the West Coast.

      • homunculus 2 years ago

        I think the Cubs will be in the mix, but it’s going to take something north of a $16.6m AAV contract, especially if it’s 7 years. This is his opportunity to max his deal because it’s highly unlikely that he will be able to get a bigger contract at 32 and 13 combined seasons under his belt.

        My guess it’s going to take something shy of Greinke’s deal if you’re going to lock him up for 7 years. Otherwise, I could easily see him take less years and higher AAV so he can hit the market again before he hits 30.

        • justinept 2 years ago

          Well Greinke’s deal was 6-years for $159 million. So even being just shy of that money would be considerably higher than the total cost of the Darvish deal. Figure that the Rangers AAV – contract plus posting fee – was $18.5 million. Greinke’s AAV is $26.5 million. Even if you offered comparable money – say $24.5 million over 7 years – you’re talking about a $191 million investment for a guy who has never thrown a pitch in the big leagues. That’s $80 million more than the Rangers paid to acquire Yu Darvish, and as good as Tanaka was in Japan, most reports say Darvish was a notch above Tanaka in terms of future projection. There’s just no way I see that happening.

          What I find interesting, though, is the idea that he might sign a 4-year deal. I hadn’t heard that before, or thought about it, but it makes sense. If he signs a 4-year $85 million deal, he’d still be one of the highest paid pitchers in baseball – and since he’d be eligible for free agency at 29-years old, he’d be young enough to land another huge contract (pending performance, of course.) It would be a similar risk to the one that Cespedes took two years ago.

          • homunculus 2 years ago

            The interesting thing here is that Tanaka will be a de facto FA so unlike the Darvish and Dice K negotiations, the market will dictate the price more so than the posting fee. I just don’t see how Tanaka would sign a long term deal unless he’s blown away by the terms since he could likely reap the benefits of going back on the market before his 30s. Then again, if it is a 6 or 7 yr deal, it wouldn’t surprise me if he has an opt out clause after 3-4 years a la Sabathia. In fact, i think that may end up being the way to do it. Get a long term guarantee at a good but not bank breaking AAV, but offer the opt out clause as a way to renegotiate the deal after a few years of service.

          • Anthony Hughes 2 years ago

            I thought Greinke was 6/$147MM.

          • justinept 2 years ago

            Baseball Reference says 6 for $159. It could be incorrect…

          • Anthony Hughes 2 years ago

            That’s the most he could get, but the guaranteed money is $147MM. It goes up by $2MM in 2018 if he pitches 1,000 innings in the first 5 years of the deal, and the other bonuses would happen if he wins Cy Young Awards and things like that.

  44. Omazing 2 years ago

    Tanaka:
    24-0 in 2013
    53-9 past 3 years highest ERA was 1.87
    30 Complete Games in 76 Starts past 3 years.

    Somebody is going to have a Very Merry 2014.

  45. Bones 2 years ago

    It will be $23 million a year for 7 years. Cubs. They will then sign Shark to 5 years $75 million and have a pretty stout pitching staff.

    • justinept 2 years ago

      $23 million per year would technically be a $181 million investment over 7 years when you include the $20 million posting fee. I have no problem coming back later and admitting I was wrong if it happens, but at this moment, I’d say there is no chance any team is going to hand anywhere near that kind of money to Tanaka.

      • Cubstein 2 years ago

        Wouldn’t be surprised if that’s around what he goes for including the posting fee. So really 1 7 year 161 Million total. Market has been ridiculous this year and I anticipate he’ll blow Darvish’s contract away, even though I’m not sure I wouldn’t rather have had Darvish even without the benefit of hindsight.

      • Cubstein 2 years ago

        Wouldn’t be surprised if that’s around what he goes for including the posting fee. So really 1 7 year 161 Million total. Market has been ridiculous this year and I anticipate he’ll blow Darvish’s contract away, even though I’m not sure I wouldn’t rather have had Darvish even without the benefit of hindsight.

  46. YARRitsBLAKE 2 years ago

    If the Dodgers sign him…GEEZ…what a rotation.
    1) Kershaw
    2) Greinke
    3) Ryu
    4) Tanaka (I only put Tanaka slotted 4th because he hasn’t proved anything yet)
    5) Haren

    With the depth of Billingsley, Beckett, Fife, and Magill. Lee is coming up quick…man. This should be an interesting to see what happens.

    • Visionsofsilver 2 years ago

      The Dodgers may feel like they don’t need another starter, but I’d hate to see them pass up an opportunity to have a rotation like that. 100m+ for an unproven (mlb) commodity is pretty steep, but worth the gamble in my opinion.

      • YARRitsBLAKE 2 years ago

        Yeah I am inclined to agree. The logical side of me is saying they won’t commit $100+ million to a third pitcher (depending on how long it takes to lock up that long term deal with Kershaw). Especially with one of those contracts going to an unproven commodity. We honestly do not know how well Tanaka will adjust to the Majors. He has, from what I can tell, a similar repertoire to Kuroda. Now Kuroda has been successful yes, but not a $100+ million pitcher. The pitches he throws also remind me a lot of the first Japanese import that the Dodgers brought over: Hideo Nomo. Both had a splitter for their out pitch, threw a good slider, and had good command of their fastball. Tanaka though appears to have a little more on his fastball (Nomo always sat around 90-93, maybe 95 every once in a while; whereas Tanaka reports to throw a 4-seamer in the 93-95 range up to 96 sometimes). Tanaka also throws a sinker, which Nomo did not. That could help him get inside on righties if used effectively.

        I dunno, as long as he doesn’t go to the Evil Empire, I am ok with that lol.

        • Visionsofsilver 2 years ago

          Good points. Let’s hope Tanaka has more longevity than Nomo did. It seemed like he went downhill quick after his fast start.

          • YARRitsBLAKE 2 years ago

            Nomo’s major issue was that his raw stuff wasn’t electric enough, and he couldn’t adjust after a while. Plus, when you have that CRAZY of a wind-up, you are bound to run into control issues and deliver-repetition issues (see Tim Lincecum). Know that Nomo’s fastball, at it’s peak, was a 92-93 MPH four-seamer, with no movement. Once he aged a little, the difference in speed between his fastball and splitter went from about 6-8 MPH, to only 3-5 MPH, making it harder to keep hitters off balance. And his slider wasn’t developed enough to compensate for it. Hitters started catching on to his wind-up, and they started sitting on the fastball and letting the splitter go for balls in the dirt all the time.

        • homunculus 2 years ago

          The big difference here is that, even if he turns out to be a No 2 starter, you’re getting him while he’s in his 20s unlike Kuroda, who was 33 when he signed with the Dodgers. That alone makes it worth the risk. Another thing to consider, Kuroda signed a $15m/1yr deal when he was 37 so it’s not that hard to see Tanaka signing a deal over $100m and that might be a bargain.

          • YARRitsBLAKE 2 years ago

            I can understand that. Kuroda was a bit older. And the nice thing, I guess you could say, about Japanese players is by the time teams post them at age 25 (or so), most of them already have at least 7 years professional experience in the Japanese leagues. So it isn’t like the teams in the Majors are getting someone who needs “seasoning”.

          • YARRitsBLAKE 2 years ago

            And Kuroda signed that because the Yankees were desperate for pitching. Everyone knows it was a slight overpay on the Yankees part. Wasn’t a bad deal, just a slight overpay in my opinion for 37 years old. I do wish we could have signed him instead of Haren. I would rather have Kuroda instead of Haren for that extra $5 million.

        • Revery 2 years ago

          Evil Empire? That’s like the pot calling the kettle Dodger Blue.

          • YARRitsBLAKE 2 years ago

            =D Guilty as charged Revery hahaha

      • YARRitsBLAKE 2 years ago

        Yeah I am inclined to agree. The logical side of me is saying they won’t commit $100+ million to a third pitcher (depending on how long it takes to lock up that long term deal with Kershaw). Especially with one of those contracts going to an unproven commodity. We honestly do not know how well Tanaka will adjust to the Majors. He has, from what I can tell, a similar repertoire to Kuroda. Now Kuroda has been successful yes, but not a $100+ million pitcher. The pitches he throws also remind me a lot of the first Japanese import that the Dodgers brought over: Hideo Nomo. Both had a splitter for their out pitch, threw a good slider, and had good command of their fastball. Tanaka though appears to have a little more on his fastball (Nomo always sat around 90-93, maybe 95 every once in a while; whereas Tanaka reports to throw a 4-seamer in the 93-95 range up to 96 sometimes). Tanaka also throws a sinker, which Nomo did not. That could help him get inside on righties if used effectively.

        I dunno, as long as he doesn’t go to the Evil Empire, I am ok with that lol.

    • Pegasus 2 years ago

      Beckett and Bills are essentially worthless at this point are they not? you always have a pretty inconsistent lineup

      • Visionsofsilver 2 years ago

        Inconsistent because of injury. A healthy Ramirez / Crawford / Kemp / Puig / Gonzalez / Guerrero could do some serious damage.

        • northsfbay 2 years ago

          There is no guarantee that players will be healthy.

          • Visionsofsilver 2 years ago

            Hence why I said IF they were healthy they COULD do some damage.

      • homunculus 2 years ago

        Not worthless if all you’re looking for is a 4/5 starter. The problem is that they’re both coming off injuries, and in Beckett’s case, age.

        I just think that if the Dodgers want to make a serious run at the title, they could probably use another power arm as the 3 to matchup with teams like the Cards who seem to have young power arms everywhere. Ryu’s been great so far, but I’d feel better about their chances if he’s their 4 rather than 3 in a 7 game series.

        • Anthony Hughes 2 years ago

          Even last year with the Cardinals’ power arms, Mattingly mismanaged them out of a Game 1 win, and Hanley was rendered pretty much useless due to getting beaned in Game 1…and they still got it to a Game 6. Oh and this was without Kemp. Granted, maybe Kemp never makes it all the way back. Just saying, this Dodger team is right there. With Tanaka? Or even Price, let’s say? They would have to be considered the favorite to win the World Series clearly. They already are in Las Vegas, in fact.

      • Mark Tabello 2 years ago

        MLB average is 125 starts for a average rotaion. Most teams will need to find around 35 starts other from their top 5 at some point through a season. So Bills and Beckett serve as nice insurance, albeit at $30 million or so….ouch

      • Nick Costanza 2 years ago

        Neither of those players are worthless at all. They’ve both shown the upside of even a #3 and while that isn’t likely, you cannot call such a player worthless.

      • Matt 2 years ago

        I am not going to say Bills doesn’t have value, because he probably doesn’t have much, but he still has a decent amount of potential.

  47. Pegasus 2 years ago

    Man just imagine

    1. A rejuvenated Sabathia
    2. Tanaka
    3. Kuroda
    4. Nova (Maturing)
    5. A healthy Pineda
    Thats a hell of a rotation. Hope he signs

    • homunculus 2 years ago

      I’d say the likelihood of CC rejuvenating himself (absent any PEDs) is unlikely given that his numbers have been sliding over the last 3 years. Can’t really blame him though because he’s been a horse, but to ask him to be your ace is a pipe dream. Better off hoping that Pineda can regain his form.

      • Pegasus 2 years ago

        CCs problem was…he lost weight, as little sense as that makes but it affected his arm slot. Coming off that experience i expect him to at least improve off his bad 2013.

        • homunculus 2 years ago

          I heard all that as well, but i fail to see how losing weight was a bad thing for Sabathia given his bum knee. Besides doesn’t he have a history of showing up thin(ner) in the spring? Could it have changed his mechanics? Perhaps, but at 33, one has to wonder that his best years are behind him. Happens to the best of them.

          • Anthony Hughes 2 years ago

            I agree with this. The guy is just starting to slide. He can still be good, maybe even very good, but I think his true #1 ace days are behind him. The guy has thrown so many innings and been an absolute workhorse. Possible Hall of Famer if he can put together a decent end to his career.

          • Pegasus 2 years ago

            He just needs to evolve his game and use more of his off speed pitches and stop acting like he can throw 96. Merry Christmas

      • Pegasus 2 years ago

        CCs problem was…he lost weight, as little sense as that makes but it affected his arm slot. Coming off that experience i expect him to at least improve off his bad 2013.

  48. justinept 2 years ago

    I don’t understand why people keep posting what their team’s rotation would look like with Tanaka in it. I could easily do this on my own simply by looking at a team’s potential 2014 rotation, inserting Tanaka at the top of it, and deleting the 5th starter. Does this exercise add to the validity that Tanaka might sign with your team – does it make it more likely that he’ll sign with your team?

    1. Tanaka
    2. Samardzija
    3. Travis Wood
    4. Edwin Jackson
    5. Jake Arrieta

    …guess that means he’s going to the Cubs, right?

    • Shane Flannagan 2 years ago

      Pretty darn good if Tanaka pitches anywhere close to what he has in Japan and if Jackson can turn it around and at least have his era down to like 4 lol

      • justinept 2 years ago

        Nah. It would still be a terrible rotation. Fortunately, Kershaw and Scherzer appear determined to hit free agency next year – at which point the Cubs rotation will be

        1) Kershaw
        2) Scherzer
        3) Tanaka
        4) Samarzija
        5) Wood

        Now, most would call this a crazy pipe dream – however, I did type in the rotation. So that means it’s likely to happen.

        • Shane Flannagan 2 years ago

          haha, good one

        • northsfbay 2 years ago

          LOL Imagine a Giants rotation of Kershaw, Tanaka, Lincecum (back to Cy Young form), Bumgarner, Cain.

        • drwheelock 2 years ago

          Hahaha … The ONLY way the Cubs land Kershaw and Scherzer as a FA next offseason, and Tanaka this offseason is if ALL 3 blow out there arm and all 3 are in rehab together. But hey we all are dreaming for each of our own teams.

          • justinept 2 years ago

            I know Scherzer pretty well. The only way he signs with the Cubs as a FA is if you take his family hostage and force him to sign. Even then, he’d be sick doing it. The guy is a serious Cardinals fan and absolutely hates the Cubs.

    • northsfbay 2 years ago

      I agree with you that inserting Tanaka into every teams rotation are ridiculous posts. He can’t play for every team.

      • drwheelock 2 years ago

        Now thats a concept. Hey how about if Tanaka plays for all MLB teams on a lottery based system, so he gets $1m per start. Then in October he gets paid $2M for each start for the teams that are playing in October…Then every team can benefit when he plays for them. lol

    • Zach 2 years ago

      Lots of assumptions on here. I would be a little surprised if the Rangers, Yankees, Dodgers, or Angels won this bidding war. They are rich but seem pretty saturated with their salaries. As always, no way to know for sure.

      • Anthony Hughes 2 years ago

        I really don’t see it being an issue for the Dodgers. First off, they haven’t shown any worry about the luxury tax, like the Yankees have for the past 2 seasons. And also, they have $45MM in salary coming off the books next year just from 4 players alone (Beckett, Billingsley, Wilson, and Haren). Granted, there will be some arbitration raises, but there are also players I haven’t mentioned who will come off (Perez, Wright, etc). They have the money. The Dodgers will be interested and making a competitive bid on Tanaka, I promise you that. Now, it may not be the highest bid. And maybe Tanaka will take more money elsewhere or maybe he simply doesn’t want to play for LA. But why wouldn’t you want to play for LA, assuming the money is close? It’s a team that is already the World Series favorite in Vegas without him, is on the West Coast which he apparently prefers, and it’s also a team with a very good history with Asian-born pitchers and, heck, with pitchers in general.

    • Pegasus 2 years ago

      Well everyone whos insisting on putting him in their teams rotations are the teams that are most likely going to sign him. I.e Dodgers, Yankees

      • justinept 2 years ago

        Yea… and the DBacks, the Mariners, the Tigers … and my personal favorite: “The Mystery Team” that would field a rotation of:

        Tanaka
        Wacha
        Chewbacca
        Binaca
        Boom-Chakalaka

        • Pegasus 2 years ago

          So whats the problem? its fun to field rotations. Besides, if the Yankees did get Tanaka. CC, Tanaka, Kuroda, Nova and Phelps or Pineda depending on health is pretty accurate. Not really, “inserting the top starter and deleting the 5th starter”

          • justinept 2 years ago

            What’s the point? Simply listing your team’s potential rotation with the addition of Tanaka, and the comment “Wow. So good” is about as useful to this conversation as someone saying the Cubs are terrible. It’s obvious. It’s common knowledge to a baseball fan. And it adds nothing to the conversation.

          • Pegasus 2 years ago

            It does add to the conversation..what are you talking about? “Golden Eagles To Post Masahiro Tanaka” so we speculate and discuss where hes going and discuss what the rotations would look like. What else are we suppose to say? “Ok he got posted”

          • justinept 2 years ago

            1. D. Price
            2. Tanaka
            3. M. Moore
            4. A. Cobb
            5. J. Hellickson.

            ok… go.

          • Arndt Miles 2 years ago

            hernadaz

            kuma
            tanka
            walker
            paxton

        • Pegasus 2 years ago

          So whats the problem? its fun to field rotations. Besides, if the Yankees did get Tanaka. CC, Tanaka, Kuroda, Nova and Phelps or Pineda depending on health is pretty accurate. Not really, “inserting the top starter and deleting the 5th starter”

      • justinept 2 years ago

        Yea… and the DBacks, the Mariners, the Tigers … and my personal favorite: “The Mystery Team” that would field a rotation of:

        Tanaka
        Wacha
        Chewbacca
        Binaca
        Boom-Chakalaka

      • justinept 2 years ago

        Whoops. Just scrolled up. You can add the A’s to the list of potential rotations I’ve seen…

    • Pegasus 2 years ago

      Well everyone whos insisting on putting him in their teams rotations are the teams that are most likely going to sign him. I.e Dodgers, Yankees

  49. CountOmar 2 years ago

    Might as well, even though this has a 0% chance of actually happening… I can dream can’t I?

    1. Parker
    2. Tanaka
    3. Gray
    4. Kazmir
    5. One of Straily, Milone, Griffin

  50. RIYankeeGuy 2 years ago

    25 year old potential no.1 – 3 starter on the FA market. 8/150 to the Yankees sounds about right. Hey, its not my money.

    • BadBJay 2 years ago

      #1 starter is stretching it, even “potentially.” An 8 year contract seems awful risky for any pitcher at any age. But if I were advising Tanaka, I’d push him to the Dodgers. Yanks have not managed their pitchers well in the last several years. I’d have a long talk with Kuroda if I could.

  51. jeffreycogs 2 years ago

    So many teams will put up the $20 million posting few, the problem is, so few will have a chance after that.

    • KJ4realz 2 years ago

      I honestly don’t see why any team wouldn’t post. You don’t lose anything.

    • livestrong77nyyankz 2 years ago

      You post the fee after the contract has already been agreed upon. He is essentially a free agent and can negotiate with any team for a 30 day period.

  52. John Ramos 2 years ago

    I see him in Dodger Blue

    Clayton Kershaw
    Zach Greinke
    Masahiro Tanaka
    Hun Jin Ryu
    Dan Haren

    Best rotation in baseball!

    • homunculus 2 years ago

      From your mouth to Ned Colletti’s ear…

    • WhoKilledTheRallyMonkey 2 years ago

      Atlanta, Detroit and Boston have a good argument against that! Dodgers ranked 7th in QS last year, Tanaka will make them better but losing Nolasco is going to hurt them too. Dodgers have the best pitching staff but not the best rotation.

      • Anthony Hughes 2 years ago

        Not Atlanta, sorry. They don’t have a true #1 ace. A lot of very good guys, don’t get me wrong. And maybe one of them emerges into a true ace. But you can’t call what they have now as a true #1 ace. The Dodgers certainly have one, and Greinke and Tanaka would be aces on most teams. Detroit is obviously loaded, and Boston is pretty darn good too, though I would still give it to Detroit between those teams in terms of rotation only.

        • WhoKilledTheRallyMonkey 2 years ago

          Atlanta had more QS (the most in the mlb), more IP by the starting rotation than the dodgers, the lowest ERA in the MLB and won more games than LAD…. clearly they are getting by without a “true #1 ace” just fine

          • Anthony Hughes 2 years ago

            And it really served you well in the playoffs, didn’t it? By the way, those stats are skewed by the fact that Greinke was injured. Our top 2 pitchers are better than any you have and I don’t think most people that are objective would argue with me.

          • oz10 2 years ago

            Remind me again how the dodgers did in the World Series?

          • Anthony Hughes 2 years ago

            That has absolutely nothing to do with this particular discussion. Try to stay on point instead of just fan-bashing.

          • oz10 2 years ago

            Ummm, it did. You said the Braves didn’t have an Ace so they wouldn’t be good in the playoffs and that the dodgers had two. That must mean that the dodgers won it all but they didn’t.

          • Anthony Hughes 2 years ago

            The Dodgers didn’t lose in the playoffs because they didn’t have the necessary pitching, and you know it. They lost for two main reasons: one, because their best hitter was hit by a pitch early in Game 1, and two, because the Cardinals themselves had fantastic pitching.

          • oz10 2 years ago

            Ummm, it did. You said the Braves didn’t have an Ace so they wouldn’t be good in the playoffs and that the dodgers had two. That must mean that the dodgers won it all but they didn’t.

          • WhoKilledTheRallyMonkey 2 years ago

            Kershaw is the best #1 pitcher but Verlander Scherzer are the best 1-2 punch in the MLB

      • homunculus 2 years ago

        I wouldn’t put Atlanta or Boston in the discussion. One is young but untested and without a true ace (ATL), and the other is littered with good but aging pitchers (BOS). If the Dodgers do sign Tanaka, I’d be hard-pressed to say that they aren’t the best rotation “on paper.” Nolasco was solid, but his numbers can be replaceable provided that Haren pitches like he did toward the end of last season. Detroit’s rotation is fine as well, but they took a hit when Fister was traded. Plus I’d like to Scherzer have at least a couple more seasons like he did in 2013 before I’d put him among the elite pitchers in the game.

        And I wouldn’t put too much stock in the QS. It’s an interesting one, but probably one that shouldn’t hold too much weight as it is by itself a fairly unreliable stat when it comes to wins.

  53. ChiMike702 2 years ago

    :Bane Voice: Let the games begin!

  54. Chuck U. Farley 2 years ago

    A week ago they weren’t going to post him… Now all of the sudden they’ve done a 360? Sounds like bribery to me!!! The question is who?

    • PileOfSandwich 2 years ago

      Doing a 360 would mean that they wouldn’t be posting him….

    • WhoKilledTheRallyMonkey 2 years ago

      internal pressure from Tanaka and external pressure from the media/MLB/NPB are the more likely cause of this 180

  55. Macfan01 2 years ago

    Folks are nuts if they don’t think the Yankees will go all out for Tanaka after not resigning Cano.

    Think about it, along with the Angels, among teams who are going to be competitive next season, they have the greatest need for a big rotation addition to their staff it goes without saying. When such an arm is available on the market desperate times call for desperate measures. Tanaka will be rocking NY pinstripes at a press conference in a month’s time.

    Sabathia
    Tanaka
    Kuroda
    Nova
    Pineda/Phelps

    Yankees will gladly overpay and make it back in Japanese merchandising if Tanaka is the real deal, his. NY pinstripe jerseys would fly off the shelves.

    Yankees have shown no appetite for Garza, whom the Angels may sign, Ervin Santana or Jiminez. It’s Tanaka or bust.

    • Anthony Hughes 2 years ago

      The Dodgers can say the same thing as far as marketing. And Nomo was the first Japanese-born pitcher to play in MLB and that was done by the Dodgers. That holds weight. Not that I am saying that Kuroda doesn’t hold weight that he’s there with the Yankees now (not to mention Ichiro). Just wanted to throw that in there. As a Dodger fan, I’m just hoping he really does prefer the West Coast and that he wants to join a seemingly stacked team.

      • carmot 2 years ago

        “Nomo was the first Japanese-born pitcher to play in MLB and that was done by the Dodgers”

        Really? Maybe somebody doesn’t know their baseball history. Check out the name Masanori Murakami. Tanaka can likely bring fan interest wherever he signs- not just LA or NYC or SEA. Sure his “marketing” value could be less in a smaller market, but that’s obviously only one factor in his determining a team to sign with.

        • Anthony Hughes 2 years ago

          I stand corrected, but what I had remembered in my brain was that Hideo was the first Japanese-born player to permanently relocate to the US and play in MLB. I looked up Murakami and he was a reliever with the SF Giants at the end of ’64 and for the ’65 season; he actually made 1 start. Then he went back to Japan to finish his career. So sorry for that, but the theme of my overall point was made. Nomo also lives in Los Angeles today, for whatever that might be worth.

    • Cubstein 2 years ago

      Maybe if they lost out on Cano and hadn’t signed McCann, Beltran and Ellsbury.

  56. Ace Simmons 2 years ago

    This Tanaka drama is going to be interesting. Looking at the speculation on here about what type of contracts he will be offered, my initial gut response is to hope that the Dodgers stay away from 7 / 150 to an unproven MLB commodity. Based on LA’s history of bad signings like Jason Schmidt, it seems like a huge gamble. However the Dodgers may be smart to try to sign Tanaka. Assuming he is as good as advertised, it would give them a great 1 – 5 rotation for next season. But more importantly, it would give them insurance in 2015 should Kershaw walk. They would still have Greinke, Ryu and Tanaka in the rotation.

    • Macfan01 2 years ago

      Shouldn’t the Dodgers be focused on resigning Kershaw who is a free agent after this coming season.

      Consider that Kershaw will get the highest contract ever for a starter in baseball history, even the nouveau riche Dodgers have to save some coinage for Kershaw’s deal, unless the Dodgers must be shooting for the first 300 million dollar payroll by trying to add a pitcher they don’t even need.

      • Anthony Hughes 2 years ago

        Greinke could walk after 2015 as he has an opt-out clause, so you could almost say that they with the possibility of Kershaw leaving after next season and Greinke leaving after 2015, does it sound that crazy to add Tanaka? The Dodgers’ owners have even more money than the Yankees. They haven’t won it all in 25 years. I agree that the Yankees have the bigger need and certainly should be able to make a competitive bid, but it would be shortsighted to think the Dodgers won’t be involved. They will be.

        • Macfan01 2 years ago

          Hey I would gladly take Kershaw if the Dodgers want Tanaka.

          Kershaw is like the pitcher’s version of Mike Trout hitting free agency.

          Guy will get the richest deal for a starter in MLB history and be among the best paid players in MLB.

          • Anthony Hughes 2 years ago

            I think he might get $30MM a year.

  57. Macfan01 2 years ago

    If folks want to know where Tanaka winds up just ask yourselves what teams have the the biggest need for him and are desperate for starting pitching, not the Rangers, Dodgers or Mariners, but certainly the Yankees and Angels need another starter in the worst way.

    The Mariners were desperate for Cano and we saw what they did.

    The pretenders will soon be weeded out if they aren’t desperate enough or competing next season.

    This will come down to the Yankees and Angels when closely examined.

    • zeles 2 years ago

      I agree with you. I’d put 90% of my eggs in those baskets.

    • Matt 2 years ago

      I will just ask myself the right question instead. Who has the most money? Because that is who will sign Tanaka, Whoever pays him the most money, and that will more than likely be the Dodgers or the Yankees.

      • Macfan01 2 years ago

        Difference is Dodgers don’t have the desperation the Yankees will have.

        Yankees will be willing to greatly overpay because Tanaka would slide smack dab into the top of their rotation.

        We saw when the Mariners got desperate for Cano and the Yankees weren’t desperate for him what happened.

        Yankees are truly desperate for a top of the rotation starter, luxury tax be darned.

        It is the Yankees that keep vacillating about that luxury tax limit when they could easily afford to blow past it. I think they just hate paying for small market teams to beat them.

        With Tanaka they will say to he11 with it and go all out since he fits their biggest remaining need.

        Only other team likely that desperate as the Yankees for a starter and is in line to compete next season is the Angels, I suppose the Indians as well, but they don’t seem to be spending this offseason.

        • pft2 2 years ago

          The Yankees seem conflicted though. They seem more focused on 189 than winning for reasons I can not fathom. Logically, they should be all over Tanaka, but logic seems not apply to their moves. BTW, the LT does not go to other teams but an industry growth fund and player fund.

          Its strange people keep forgetting the Red Sox. They are flush with cash after winning it all last year and could sign Tanaka and stay under 189 (by trading Peavy and Dempster). The Yankees will have to pay 50% of whatever they give Tanaka in tax and the Dodgers will pay 33%. Red Sox will pay a big fat O.
          Also, LA and NY have a 12% tax burden for Tanaka while Boston is only 6%. By signing Tanaka Boston also keep the Yankees as a 85 W team.

      • raltongo 2 years ago

        not necessarily…obviously the player is going to take into consideration the city, fans, probability of winning, media attention, etc. Money is likely the largest motivating factor, but you can’t rule out the possibility that he may not want the NY media spotlight; he may be more content to remain in an (comparatively) obscure scene in Seattle like Ichiro. The whole west-coast-preference perspective may or may not have credibility, but you know for a fact Tanaka already has a particular preference to play in 1-2 cities BEFORE the money numbers even emerge…

        • pft2 2 years ago

          If he was not after the money he would have stayed in Japan. With his agent taking 5% and perhaps a backdoor deal with Rakuten taking some more, he will be after the money. Playing in NY he has a 12% tax burden on half his games while playing in Seattle and 18 games in Texas he has 0 tax. That’s where NY is at a disadvantage, that and the cost of living in NY and housing costs. It’s also a 4 hr longer trip to Japan from NY which is important for his family.

          He is really the first posted pitcher to have a choice where he wants to play. Most Japanese free agents seemed to gravitate to the WC, although NY had an attraction for some like Matsui.

          Tanaka will also consider the park and competition. He will want to look good for his fans in Japan and that means he may be more interested in pitching in the NL for a team like the Dodgers w/o the DH, or in a pitcher friendly park like SAFECO with Seattle. Pitching in the AL east in a park like YS3 is not fun, and not conducive to looking good.

    • drwheelock 2 years ago

      And what makes you think after spending $240M on Cano, and Seattle only being at $80m in payroll for 2014 at this point, that they won’t go all in on Tanaka. I think it will get down to Yanks and Seattle.

      Cashman referred to being “Yankeed by the Seattle Mariners” after Cano signed with Seattle, because that’s what Yankees have always done to other teams. And then it was awesome to see the Yankees “Yankeed” once again this offseason as the fought over the only next best 2B on the market.

      Can the Yankees be “Yankeed” (I mean “Tankeed”) twice in a row in the same offseason by 1 team (the Mariners). I will laugh my rear end off all the way to October this year if that happens. Since 2000, it was always a dream of mine to see the Yankees miss the playoffs on a $220m payroll. It’s happened twice now, but this year is very unique knowing there is a strong chance they miss the playoffs twice in a row (2013 & 2014).

  58. trenigro 2 years ago

    I find it pretty funny how Tanaka is already being crowned as an ace caliber pitcher before even throwing a single pitch in the MLB. Don’t get me wrong, it sounds like the guy has talent, but is he really worthy of a $100 million plus contract? Dominating in the NPB isn’t even close to pitching in the MLB. I mean scrubs like Wladimir Balentien are super star hitters over there. Only 12 $100 million+ contracts have been given to pitchers in MLB history. Why should a guy who hasn’t even pitched in the MLB be worthy of that much?

    • Macfan01 2 years ago

      You do raise a very good point about the credibility of Tanaka on a guaranteed long term deal and its something that I have thought about.

      I think everyone is expecting Yu Darvish type performance, which will of course be remaining to be seen.

      Its pretty risky to invest hundreds of millions in a guy who will be a question mark about how he adapts to the big leagues.

      Its going to be a huge risk that any team takes that does sign him and keep their fingers crossed that he is Yu Darvish and not Dice K.

      This is why I mentioned the desperation angle in my prior posts. The Yankees are THE desperate team for a potential front of the rotation candidate, moreso than the Dodgers, Rangers, heck the Angels seem to be likely to land Garza if they don’t get Tanaka, while the Yankees seem to not like any of those free agent pitchers like Garza, Santana, Jiminez and are putting their eggs in the Tanaka basket. Which is why I think they will go all out, even as big a risk as it is.

      Either that or they wait till next season for the even larger bid for Clayton Kershaw, who would be crazy to not test the market, unless the Dodgers give him that supposed 300 million lifetime contract, which likely never happened.

    • 王威評 2 years ago

      IMO, Tanaka won’t be an Ace, but more like #2-3.
      Tanaka’s weapon are his 96 fastball and splitter.
      This kind of fastball kills japanese hitters, Dice-K, Igawa, Irabu came to mind.
      However, in MLB, only 96 fastball won’t be enough, control on breaking balls to go with 92 fastball is more efficient.
      Iwakuma, Kuroda, Darvish to name a few, when you can throw all your breaking balls for strike, you succeed everywhere.

      Good thing is, Tanaka got serious guts, this guy just throw first strike all the time and finish off with his deadly split finger.
      That being said, a number 2 young SP is worth 18-20M anyway in today’s market. True ace will ask for 25M.

      • pft2 2 years ago

        Wang, I never saw Dice K with a 96 mph FB in Boston. Pitching every 5 days he was only at 93. He also could not command his breaking ball very well because of the lower seams on the MLB ball. Also, Tanaka is supposed to have a straight FB, and MLB hitters will kill that if they don’t have to worry about the splitter on the 1st pitch. He will have to mix his pitches up more in MLB.

        His declining K rate the past 2 years concerns me. Whats up with that?.

    • Pennsy 2 years ago

      Does that figure take into account posting fees? Because Yu Darvish only gets $60m but the Rangers put up north of $100m to acquire him. In Tanaka’s case, Rakuten will only get $20m of whatever any team thinks he’s worth to get and salaries have inflated dramatically even since Darvish was signed.

      It doesn’t make sense for most teams to spend this kind of money, but it makes perfect sense for the Yankees or Dodgers to spend this kind of money. I’d be surprised if the Dodgers didn’t bid the Yankees up just on a matter of principle.

    • livestrong77nyyankz 2 years ago

      That is why there is a scouting report

  59. bdiddy7 2 years ago

    Unless he doesn’t want to go there, I don’t think anyone will outbid the Yankees. Out of all the play-off contending teams, they’re the most desperate for him. 189 won’t stop them from getting Tanaka.

    • Macfan01 2 years ago

      Given that he is 25, the Yankees need a starting pitcher in the worst way, they let their best player leave to go to Seattle because they don’t think he was worth a 10 year deal, Tanaka has been part of their thinking all offseason from the start ala getting Brian McCann to catch for example, I will be stunned if he is not in pinstripes for the Yankees.

      Desperate need at any cost + Money = acquisition, see what Seattle did with Cano for example. Yankees weren’t desperate to keep Cano at any cost. Seattle wanted him though and voila. Unlike Cano, Yankees will be desperate for Tanaka at any cost though. where they will be willing to keep raising the price to acquire him if need be.

      Dodgers, Rangers don’t have a desperate need by any stretch compared to the Yankees rotation questions if they don’t get him.

      • homunculus 2 years ago

        I’m not sure that being “desperate” is a position of power in any negotiation unless you plan on outbidding yourself. Any team that is willing to pay the $20m fee has a need for pitching so I don’t see that the Yanks are any more desperate than Seattle, Texas, Arizona, Chicago, both LA clubs. The Yanks didn’t reup Cano because it was the smart thing to do given what he wanted. And it’s the very same reason why the Yanks won’t blindly blow away every bid for a supremely talented, but untested, rookie.

  60. meinhardt1992 2 years ago

    You all are saying the Cubs don’t have a legit chance which is not really true. The payroll for the Cubs will be down seeing the Cubs do not have many if any huge contracts and on top of that Tanka will be a perfect fit for when the Cubs are ready to start to contend next year or the year after that and can make the perfect rotation for the Cubs in the future:

    Shark
    Tanka
    Wood
    Jackson
    Arrieta or Russin

    that would be next years rotation and that would be a great rotation in baseball.

    • BadBJay 2 years ago

      With all due respect, we can all dream on Christmas. Everyone’s rotation looks good in December. But pitching in Wrigley? Joining a rotation that’s unproven? With an organization that hasn’t won since forever? He’ll go to the Cubs… if they offer a major premium over the Yanks.

  61. slider32 2 years ago

    If the Yanks can land Tanaka the 189 cap is out the window. They will spend even more to try and obtain Balfour and Drew. If they can get all three they will be the favorites in the East.

    • stl_cards16 2 years ago

      So all they need to do is commit $500 MILLION to make themselves favorites to win the division? Sounds easy enough

    • pft2 2 years ago

      I don’t know about being favorites, but they will certainly be competitive. They do have a lot of older and brittle players, so injuries could strike them down, and there is no guarantee Tanaka does not turn out to be another Daisuke or Igawa

      Red Sox according to Steamer projections will lose about 15 WAR due to regression and downgrade at 3 positions. They might make a run at Drew if the Yankees land Tanaka.

    • burnboll 2 years ago

      Don’t think they’ll go after Drew. Their primary need is starting pitching IMO.

    • bamf9 2 years ago

      That’s what I’m hoping for as well.

  62. Allismileo 2 years ago

    You have to wonder if Rizzo and the Nationals are planning to make a bid, despite the future contract issues of Desmond, Zimmermann, Strausburg and Harper. After all, the Nationals have one of the richest owners in baseball- and this would certainly be a big marquee.

    I really see him going to the Mariners though. They could use a big Japanese name to bring back the international interests. It would certainly solve the issue of trading for David Price who would end up costing the same or more for them and there would be more return.

    • Pennsy 2 years ago

      I think the MASN situation limits the Nats’ spending more than people account for. Yes Lerner is infinite rich but these rich guys don’t necessarily like to plow a lot of their own money into their teams if they don’t have to. Lerner may very well do it if he’s in love with Tanaka but I think we would have heard more rumblings about Nats interest by now.

      If the Nats are spending smart money they’ll extend Desmond before another offseason sees salaries skyrocket some more. Would love to see Zimmermann get one, too. Strike while the iron is hot, Rizzo!

  63. drwheelock 2 years ago

    Can you imagine how many posts ‘after’ he signs with a team, when all these fans teams that are posting doesn’t land Tanaka?! Oh my….

    All of a sudden it will go from ‘projected rotations’ for their team….to slamming Tanaka’s unproven play in MLB and wishing and hoping that he fails in MLB and blows out his arm after a huge overpay.

    It’s going to be a circus on this board even ‘after’ he signs. lol

    • Rook 2 years ago

      Well hopefully fans don’t actually wish him to get injured. Theres no doubt they will point out the fact that he’s unproven at ever turn though.

  64. TEXINTILLIDIE 2 years ago

    As a Rangers fan knowing the probability of signing Tanaka is slim to none, I just hope he signs somewhere other than the A.L. West! We’ll except for Houston. The best they could hope for is a Felix/mariners recreation of the past 9 years.

    • Cubstein 2 years ago

      If I were in your situation I wouldn’t want him signing with Houston. Sure they’ll still be the bottom of that division this year but they have several talented players not too far from making an impact. They have a ton of salary flexibility. Might not be too far from them being the perennial winner of that division rather than the joke of the league.

      • Kyle 2 years ago

        Astros do have good prospects coming, but they are no where near competing with the Rangers, A’s, and Mariners.

  65. MadmanTX 2 years ago

    Gonna laugh at all this speculation when Tanaka joins Darvish in Texas.

    • Pegasus 2 years ago

      Pretty sure Texas is done spending after Choo

    • stl_cards16 2 years ago

      Already laughing that some people think Tanaka actually cares where Darvish is. The Rangers can sign him, they just have to offer the most money.

      • Pegasus 2 years ago

        With that logic theres more chance of him joining with the Yankees because of Ichiro and Kuroda

        • Kyle 2 years ago

          Except Ichiro and Kuroda are about a year away from retirement.

      • Leftover_stew 2 years ago

        You mean all Japanese people aren’t friends?

    • StevePegues 2 years ago

      Aren’t you, in fact, speculating that he’ll sign with TX? If you’ve got some insider info, we’d all love to hear it.

    • burnboll 2 years ago

      How do you know that?

  66. Quikmix 2 years ago

    On sheer depth of pockets, you’d have to think the Yankees or Dodgers would have the best shot.

    As much as I’d like to see the Angels try to sign him, every big signing from here on out is that much less flexibility in payroll to lock up Trout long-term.

    • Cubstein 2 years ago

      Maybe Yankees but Dodgers will already have a higher salary then next year once arbitration is over.

    • pft2 2 years ago

      Don’t rule out the Red Sox. They have deep pockets and could sign Tanaka and stay under 189 by trading Peavy and Dempster, both of whom are in the last year of their deals.

  67. stef 2 years ago

    my prediction: blue jays offer 6 yrs 125 million regardless of their 5 year policy

    • Runtime 2 years ago

      It’s not too far fetched… I don’t think they Jays would go past 6/$110m

  68. skrockij89 2 years ago

    Jimenez, Santana and Garza will be winners after this sweepstake. Whoever lose out on the Tanaka bidding will overpay for these three pitchers. Smart move on their part.

    • Cubstein 2 years ago

      Think they would have preferred he stay out. He’s the number 1 rated free agent pitcher so they all move down a slot. Not to mention just the increased supply of pitching he provides. Economics, more supply, lower price.

      • skrockij89 2 years ago

        There’s always a demand for pitching though.

        • Cubstein 2 years ago

          Simple economic theory. Yes there’s always demand for pitching just as theirs always a supply. When that supply increases the price decreases. Team’s don’t have to go all out on one guy as much because there’s another option int he market. If not this guy doesn’t hold up the entire pitching market. Most players like signing before Christmas something but right now all the best pitchers are still out there.

        • burnboll 2 years ago

          So one more good starting pitcher gets on the market and you think somehow the prices for the others will go …UP?

          You don’t make any sense my friend.

          Whoever gets Tanaka won’t be going after the other pitchers.

          Simple economics.

          • skrockij89 2 years ago

            Whoever loses go after the other three pitchers. Tanaka will set the market higher for those pitchers to get paid more.

  69. bamf9 2 years ago

    So when does he get posted and when do we find out which team has won?

    • Cubstein 2 years ago

      No team will win just off of posting. I wouldn’t be surprised if there’s 30 teams that offer the 20 million post.

      • KJ4realz 2 years ago

        Exactly, Tanaka is going to be able to choose wherever he wants to pitch

  70. jmcbosox 2 years ago

    Obviously there is lots of talk about where he will end up and we’ve seen a lot of Yankee and Dodger posts. The difference is that the Yankees would have him towards the top of the rotation while the Dodgers at the back end. If I were a Yankee fan I don’t think I would be too keen on the idea of relying on an unproven MLB starter at the front of the rotation In the AL, much less the AL East. It seems like this could go downhill quickly for Tanaka. Happy bidding and Merry Christmas!

  71. What if all clubs offered the same amount or had a maximum they would be allowed to offer then let him choose where he wants to play.

    • Cubstein 2 years ago

      In that case he’d likely choose a west coast team. But there is no limit and there’s a good chance the Cubs or Yankees offer enough to lure him away from the west coast.

  72. ice_hawk10 2 years ago

    Teams with the need, the finances and the urgency to win now: Yankees, Mariners, Diamondbacks, Blue Jays, Nationals. Roughly in that order of likelihood too.

    • Cubstein 2 years ago

      He’s 25. The bidding team doesn’t have to prepared to win now. He’s still yet to enter his prime years. The Cubs have about 50 million off of their payroll from last year and have been quoted as saying there was a market for young players. They are also week at pitching depth as far as prospects. He fits into their picture perfectly.

      • ice_hawk10 2 years ago

        The cubs will be in on him for sure, but I don’t see them at the final bidding table. A rebuilding team just doesn’t have the same motivation to spend this kind of dough and take this kind of risk as teams that need to win now.

        • Cubstein 2 years ago

          A 25 year old isn’t a win now proposition. His contract will likely be a 6-8 year deal. He’s not expected to hit his prime for another couple of years. All of the major 4 Cubs prospects will at least have earned a shot by then. They will need pitching to complement all the hitting prospects we have. No way the Cubs aren’t up there with the best of the bids if not the best bid.

          If it were any other pitcher on the market I’d agree, they are all win now, either exiting their prime years or already past it. I don’t know if you know what win now means if you think he is a win now pitcher.

  73. Imagine him on the Rays with a non traded Price in the rotation

  74. Jonathan Barlock 2 years ago

    Which team will win the Tanaka sweepstakes? ?? All the names are in the hat

    • Pegasus 2 years ago

      Yankees please!

    • Marinersforever71 2 years ago

      Maybe the Cubs so Samardzja can be shipped to the Phillies in a three team trade also involving the Mariners.
      After Tanaka signing, Cubs acquire James Paxton, Tyler Pike, Justin Smoak (to back up Rizzo/pinch hit for pitchers) or Stefan Romero if the Cubs need a third baseman, and Gabriel Guerrero.
      Phillies can acquire Jeff Samardzja, Patrick Kivelhan or a catcher besides Zunino & Hicks, and cash from the Cubs.
      Mariners acquire Cliff Lee, Jonathan Papelbon, and either Dominic Brown or Marlon Byrd.
      That may work out for those three teams in a trade on top of Tanaka signing w/ the. Cubs. Merry Christmas Jonathan and others here.

  75. Jose Ochoa 2 years ago

    the angels are gonna be a team to watch cause of this posting im just their gonna try and go all in on tanaka

    • burnboll 2 years ago

      Why specifically Angels? Lots of other teams have great incentives to go “all in ” on Tanaka.

      I think Angels are a likely candidate, but others are even more likely. I’m guessing that Yankees, Cubs and Mariners all we be betting quite a lot.

      And why not Baltimore or Washington?
      Baltimore has done close to nothing in this off season and have plenty of cash from their MASN network.

      Give me one reason Angels are more likely than above mentioned team.

      • Kyle 2 years ago

        Because the Angels have The Will To Win…the Winter.

      • Jose Ochoa 2 years ago

        why because they need pitching more than anybody else and arte is known to break the piggy bank and sneak in a pay somebody… the angels have their chips all in with this payroll it makes perfect sense facing darvis and iwakuma in the al west no matter what the angels will sign tanaka or garza one or the other im sure arte will go over the luxury tax for somebody he can market well against the other al west rivals

  76. jed_hoyer 2 years ago

    of course the cubs won’t be out bid. the highest is 20mil.

    • burnboll 2 years ago

      What are your plans Jed?

      What annual value are you going to offer Tanaka?

    • ChiMike702 2 years ago

      If Kaplan’s source didn’t mean they won’t be outbid on the total value of the contract, it’s a pointless statement.

  77. burnboll 2 years ago

    I’ll preface this by saying I really have no clue where Tanaka will land. But Dodgers seems to make the most sense IMO. Big financial muscles, and could have potentially awesome front of the rotation with Tanaka possibly not even being their number 2 starter.

  78. Jack Milliken 2 years ago

    Hope the Angels got a shot. They need him badly!

  79. Robert Mango 2 years ago

    So many teams will go after him, i think he’ll only end up with one of a couple of teams. Yanks, b/c they have the $$$ to offer and the biggest need for him, I’d say the Dodgers, but i don’t see them selling out what it’ll cost to keep him AND THEN sign Kershaw to what he’s going to get unless they’re plan is to have a $250-$300 million payroll in a couple of years. Angels are a definite wildcard, they’re in the same boat as the yankees, roster’s already expensive and he could be difference maker. Unless the Cubs outbid everyone i don’t see how he’ll go there. Rangers too in the same boat as Yanks and Angels. That’d be my prediction, Yankees, Rangers and Angels in that order.

  80. Converge241 2 years ago

    My thoughts on most likely:
    1. Yankees due to the ultra spend mode that has been engaged
    2. Mariners due to their efforts, and his relationship/looking up to Iwakuma
    3. Diamondbacks

    My dark horse of a team that I havent seen mentioned personally? The Mets.

    Really EVERY team should put in the bid, only responsible if sign him, at worst helps drive up the demand perception.

  81. troche565 2 years ago

    Merry Christmas.

  82. clydefrog13 2 years ago

    Facepalm.

  83. AmericanMovieFan 2 years ago

    I’d guess also guilt. I know some claim that wouldn’t make sense, given the Japanese culture of honor, but I still think it was the guilt of knowing they’d be depriving him of a $100MM pay day weighing on them.

  84. PhillyYank 2 years ago

    I hope Tanaka is legit. The last two times the Yankees imported a Japanese pitcher were cataclysmic. One toiled in the minors and the other was immortalized by a Jerry Stiller courtroom outburst in Seinfeld.

  85. Robert Muldhoon 2 years ago

    awwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww

  86. Mark Tabello 2 years ago

    Tanka has already said he desires to play on the west coast. Not to say the Yanks will not go hard after him but I think if the money is similar he would prefer the Dodgers or the Mariners if the have the highest by a considerable amount. Any American player would think what you are thinking but I think being somewhat closer to home matters to him

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