Jon Lester Scratched From Tomorrow’s Start

Yesterday, reports indicated that the Orioles and Mariners have both inquired on Red Sox ace Jon Lester, but the Sox are likely to take any decision down to the wire. Earlier this morning, we noted that Gordon Edes of ESPNBoston.com heard there was less than a 50 percent chance Lester is dealt based on current talks, but offers are expected to increase in the coming days.

We’ll keep track of the rest of Tuesday’s Lester-related rumors in this post…

  • A source with direct knowledge of the situation says that there are six clubs still in on Lester, per Edes (via Twitter): the Dodgers, Cardinals, Pirates, Blue Jays, Orioles, and Athletics.
  • At present, the Red Sox have not received a trade proposal that the club is satisfied with, tweets Abraham. Multiple reports have indicated that no trade was in place when Lester was scratched from his start. At the moment, the Cardinals, Dodgers, and Pirates are all in the mix for Lester, tweets Rosenthal.
  • The Brewers are “not on” Lester, tweets Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports.
  • Lester has been scratched from his start tomorrow, manager John Farrell tells reporters, including Jason Mastrodonato of MassLive.com (via Twitter). A rival GM tells Rob Bradford of WEEI.com (Twitter link) that it appears a deal will be in place tonight or tomorrow morning.
  • The division-rival Jays and Orioles seem out of the running for Lester at this point, per Bradford (Twitter links). A team source rejected the suggestion that the Dodgers would offer top prospect Joc Pederson for Lester, Saxon reports.
  • If the Pirates make a deal for Lester, it will have to occur before his start tomorrow so he can take his next turn for Pittsburgh, reports MLB.com’s Tom Singer. The Bucs are not willing to part with prospects Tyler Glasnow, Nick Kingham, Jameson Taillon, Josh Bell, or Austin Meadows in a deal. But the team would consider dealing Alen Hanson or JaCoby Jones, and Singer says that outfielder Jose Tabata is a “wild card” in discussions, which could potentially expand to include Mike Carp or one of several Boston relievers.

Earlier Updates

  • The Red Sox were never given a “figure … on what it would have taken to sign” Lester, a source tells Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe (via Twitter). But while Lester and his representatives never formally made an offer to the Red Sox, both sides exchanged numbers and understood their respective parameters, Rob Bradford of WEEI.com reports.
  • The Red Sox have enhanced leverage regarding Lester because he could tip the balance in the NL Central, if not also the rest of the National League, Joel Sherman of the New York Post writes. Sherman discusses the possibility of the Dodgers, Cardinals, Pirates, and Brewers making the move for a rotation upgrade. Boston is “at least considering” attempting to deal and later re-sign its staff ace, Sherman adds.
  • Sox manager John Farrell says that the club still has Lester penciled in to start, but is prepared to use Brandon Workman in his place if Lester is dealt, as Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe tweets.
  • The Dodgers are not close to any major deals at the moment and adding Lester “appears … unlikely,” tweets Mark Saxon of ESPNLosAngeles.com. Nevertheless, Los Angeles appears on top of the list of likeliest suitors for the Boston lefty, as handicapped by Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com.
  • The Pirates are emerging as a dark-horse to acquire Lester, report Jeff Passan and Tim Brown of Yahoo Sports. (John Perrotto of the Beaver County Times was first to link the Bucs with a possible move on Lester; subscription link.) One possible centerpiece of such a deal would be well-regarded prospect Josh Bell, the Yahoo writers add. A deal with the Pirates would not necessarily involve Bell, however, Gordon Edes of ESPNBoston.com tweets.
  • The Red Sox are actively taking offers and preparing to deal Lester, a National League GM tells Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe (Twitter link). Abraham says it is difficult to see Lester taking his start tomorrow for Boston.
  • Jim Bowden of ESPN and MLB Network Radio reports (via Twitter) that the Blue Jays, Mariners, Brewers, Cardinals, Dodgers, Orioles and Marlins are all currently in on Lester. The Marlins are certainly a new addition to the mix, although that would line up with Buster Olney’s report from earlier today pegging them as a potential surprise candidate for some starting pitchers. Miami has a number of high-end prospects, and Lester’s remaining $4.48MM in salary might not be too overwhelming.
  • Andy Martino of the New York Daily News hears the same as Olney did earlier this morning (Twitter link): There’s “little doubt” in the industry that Boston will move its ace. Rival clubs are expecting a trade.
  • Lester’s agent, Seth Levinson of ACES, denied a previous report that his client’s asking price in extension talks motivated the Red Sox to trade him, reports Gordon Edes of ESPNBoston.com. Unsurprisingly, Levinson shed no further light on any extension talks with Lester: “The discussions we had with the Red Sox were confidential and will remain that way,” Levinson said to Edes in an email.
  • Sean McAdam of CSNNE.com adds some new teams to the Lester mix, as he reports that the Athletics, Blue Jays and Braves have all called to inquire on the BoSox ace. Of those teams, Toronto is being the most aggressive in its pursuit, a source tells McAdam. The Sox are willing to move him to the division-rival Jays or Orioles, according to McAdam’s source. Boston is still seeking multiple prospects in return, specifically one elite prospect — McAdam uses Oscar Taveras, Joc Pederson and Corey Seager as examples — and at least one more lesser prospect. Interestingly, McAdam notes that the Red Sox will not consider trading Lester to the Yankees.
  • The Brewers have spoken to the Sox about Lester, reports Jon Heyman of CBS Sports. Milwaukee was said to have asked the Rays about David Price as well, but Price might not be dealt now, and Lester would cost less to acquire. Heyman notes that Milwaukee has top pitching prospect Jimmy Nelson to offer as a centerpiece and has a deeper farm system than it has in prior years. Nelson ranked 38th on Baseball America’s midseason list of the game’s Top 50 prospects, and MLB.com ranked him 53rd on their midseason Top 100.

Jeff Todd contributed to this post.


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540 Comments on "Jon Lester Scratched From Tomorrow’s Start"


Cheeseman Forever
1 year 1 month ago

Time to stop calling Nelson a “prospect.” He got called up, has had four starts so far and has pitched effectively in three of the games. He’s a key piece of the Brewers’ future and not worth trading for another starter. What the Brewers need is offense, not another starter with a high trade price tag.

David
1 year 1 month ago

Nelson has looked good but 4 starts doesn’t take the “prospect” tag off of him yet. I would agree with you on their needs though. Rent a pitcher for 3 months by throwing away prospects doens’t make sense. They should be looking for a 1B.

basemonkey
1 year 1 month ago

4 starts, however good or not, is a looong way off from being a legit MLB starter.

I’d say you can only start thinking that after, say, 600 IP, which is about 2-3 years just to see what you’ve got, and, to see if he can take starters’ wear and tear of consecutive years.

Cheeseman Forever
1 year 1 month ago

Understood it’s a small sample size so far. But don’t trade away a legit future starter (hopefully) for a rental when the team’s major needs lie elsewhere. (Bench player with a bat, RH reliever.)

Chris Koch
1 year 1 month ago

There are “Prospects” with high rankings that fail and then there are prospects like Nelson who has no signs that he’s going to fail. It’d be one thing if Nelson threw 90-92 with his control issues but he throws 95+. Also is 6’6″ not 5’11”-6ft. His FB sinks because of his height.
Nelson’s control has improved evidence from last season to this year’s stats it would be 1 less walk per 9. He’s not prone to HRs. There is so much going for Nelson, it’s hard not to see him being a dominant #3 if not a good #2. And if he improves his slider any bit we are talking a dominant #2 easily here.

basemonkey
1 year 1 month ago

I am not doubting his quality. I think he’s an exciting young arm. That’s no question. I’m talking about the pounding and wear-and-tear of consecutive years of majorleague seasons. He’s just never done that before, and you won’t know until he’s doing it.

We’ve seen countless great arms, just as great, fail at that only for health or bad luck, not talent. How many times have we’ve seen young emerging perrenial Cy Young candidates types, suddenly hit that invisible magic wall after the 600 IP threshold? Arms have mileage on them. Some give out. Others never have a problem. On the top of my mind right now in recent memory is Neftali Perez. Scott Kazmir is a classic breakdown story. So is Mark Prior. Matt Moore of the Rays, same story. This list is endless. And they all had strong early runs but hit some health walls.

chadomac
1 year 1 month ago

The Brewers have the best offense in the National League, but I do agree that Nelson is too much for Lester. Not enough of an upgrade there for it to be worth 6 years of Nelson.

oh Hal
1 year 1 month ago

It’ll probably take 3 players to get Lester, so 18 years or lets say 12 if 1 guy doesn’t work out. Melvin is a guy who calls his minor leaguers “inventory.”

Travis2014
1 year 1 month ago

So just because he inquires on a good player available at the deadline he is suddenly horrible and going to make a horrible trade?

News Flash every GM does this if they have a need for a starter…some teams that don’t need one per say do it too. How do you know he even is considering it anymore? Maybe he is pressuring the Cards to sell the farm…stop judging Melvin from your couch.

oh Hal
1 year 1 month ago

I agree with you completely but I’d bet Melvin would not only trade him but include other premium prospects.

Better
1 year 1 month ago

Going to have to do better than the 38th ranked prospect lol

Bleed_Orange
1 year 1 month ago

That’s actually not a bad return for a two month rental. A few lower end guy and that’s about it.

Chris Koch
1 year 1 month ago

10-12 Starts of Lester for a 6’6″ Workhorse Righty with 95+MPH FB and a miniscule HR/9 rate? Boston needs to do better? Nelson is one of the few SPs within the top 100 prospects that has improved on the season. His control is better. I don’t think Nelson is getting as much credit as he should get in prospect rankings due to age. He’s ML ready to pitch. Not a 18-20year old ranked ahead of him who may take 3 more years to even reach ML besides living up to their prospect ranking of today.

oh Hal
1 year 1 month ago

It’s due to the org he’s in.

No matter how poorly those lists turn out, fans are obsessed with them and treat them as magical.

Chris Koch
1 year 1 month ago

I fully get why Nelson is in the 30s. Why not? I’d take a lot of the guys ahead of him who have proven themselves thus far in the minors at 5years less Nelson’s age. But at the same time Nelson has taken the thing that’s kept him down in rankings(control) and improved it a lot this season.

Guys previously ahead of Nelson who are SPs haven’t improved on control and thus numbers don’t match their rankings: Shelby Miller/Taijian Walker/Trevor Baeur. I feel like Nelson is being attached to their problems and ignoring his accomplishments.

oh Hal
1 year 1 month ago

Hey, I’m with you, but I don’t think its him, its the view of the org by Law, Parks, et al.

Chris Koch
1 year 1 month ago

If Nelson’s control hadn’t improved, we’re looking at a 4-5BB/9 SP. At 8-9Hit/9 we’re staing at a near 1.4WHIP SP so I get Nelson’s previously lower ranking. Add his age and yeah 18-21year olds who appear as good as Nelson today are going to be ahead of him in rankings. Many players in the Brewes minors of recent are older and really not top 10-15 draft picks. I think the club’s rankings will improve with their recent drafts having gone higher upside/younger selections. Can’t blame Law for the Brewer’s prospect rankings of late. Yeah Gennett/Davis are doing well but Davis is playing to the level expected which his value comes only via his Bat. w/o it he’s not good. Gennett is smaller with nothing that stands out. Lower power/not speedy/ avg defensively. He’s exceeded his projection thus far but it’s via a Platton enhanced numbers. If Gennett could hit Lefty’s, I’d imagine his stock would have been higher. Lucroy I will say was overlooked by Law and such but that really is about it.

oh Hal
1 year 1 month ago

Law is a phony. Gennett probably has about as much power as any other NL 2B. I doubt he loses that much seeing a LH pitcher every 5 or 6 starts. Remember everything he’s doing are things he wasn’t supposed to be able to do. He’ll probably have a fairly normal platoon split after a while. Law said he flat out wasn’t a major league player. Davis power is rare and his defense is far above what was advertised. Ditto for Gennett. Peralta and Thornburg, like Nelson were described as middle relievers. The purpose Law serves is to generate revenue through entertainment value.

Lucroy is part of a long list.

Chris Koch
1 year 1 month ago

I forgot about Thornburg but to this point he hasn’t proven anything that shows him being a solid SP option vs. just a strong RP. Peralta, I always thought has SP attached to his name. I do read in to some of Law’s rants and ignore some as well. When it comes to ranking prospects defense seems to be his more calling card on what to rank above the other. With pitching it seems more if a Pitcher has very good command of a secondary pitch that shows plus. avg offerings or lack of control of them he’s going to just overlook you. Nelson/Peralta it’s always been that secondary slider/changeup control that’s held them back. Ignoring the sink they both produce with their fastball to induce groundballs/not allow HRs.

oh Hal
1 year 1 month ago

Thornburg was great as a starting pitcher.If defense is a big deal to the guy, then that is a big black mark against him because he seems to not do it well at all. I’d guess the only time he sees a Brewers prospect is if they are the opposing team.

oh Hal
1 year 1 month ago

Law is a phony. Gennett probably has about as much power as any other NL 2B. I doubt he loses that much seeing a LH pitcher every 5 or 6 starts. Remember everything he’s doing are things he wasn’t supposed to be able to do. He’ll probably have a fairly normal platoon split after a while. Law said he flat out wasn’t a major league player. Davis power is rare and his defense is far above what was advertised. Ditto for Gennett. Peralta and Thornburg, like Nelson were described as middle relievers. The purpose Law serves is to generate revenue through entertainment value.

Lucroy is part of a long list.

oh Hal
1 year 1 month ago

It’s due to the org he’s in.

No matter how poorly those lists turn out, fans are obsessed with them and treat them as magical.

CharlieMurphy
1 year 1 month ago

I understand that you’re wary of giving up your top prospect but the bottom line is that a top 50 guy is probably the minimum going rate for Lester right now. It’s what the market dictates, not who is getting what in return comparatively.

Like you, I am really high on Nelson. But there’s also a strong chance he reverts to his control issues and ends up being a bullpen guy. Like with any prospect, there is risk involved.

Getting Lester would probably solidify a playoff spot for the Brew Crew.. and they’d have a proven playoff ace leading them in the postseason. That’s worth at least a top 50 prospect, it’s just the way it is. If they want him or any other significant addition they’ll have to give up at least Nelson.

CharlieMurphy
1 year 1 month ago

I understand that you’re wary of giving up your top prospect but the bottom line is that a top 50 guy is probably the minimum going rate for Lester right now. It’s what the market dictates, not who is getting what in return comparatively.

Like you, I am really high on Nelson. But there’s also a strong chance he reverts to his control issues and ends up being a bullpen guy. Like with any prospect, there is risk involved.

Getting Lester would probably solidify a playoff spot for the Brew Crew.. and they’d have a proven playoff ace leading them in the postseason. That’s worth at least a top 50 prospect, it’s just the way it is. If they want him or any other significant addition they’ll have to give up at least Nelson.

Overbrook
1 year 1 month ago

Not much. Maybe #38 and a few good A ball prospects.

craigcounsellhitsbombs
1 year 1 month ago

Trading Nelson for Lester seems terrible. I don’t understand all these rumors about Milwaukee trying to add a starter. What they need is a first basemen, a right handed reliever, and a decent bench bat.

Zac
1 year 1 month ago

If you want to win a world series, you’ll need a lot more than Lohse and Garza to beat LA.

Lefty_Orioles_Fan
Lefty_Orioles_Fan
1 year 1 month ago

At least the Brew Crew is a team.
Most of the Dodgers were acquired through trade or free agency.
Puig is a different story.

Zac
1 year 1 month ago

Huh, 3 out of their 5 starting pitchers, a long with one of their best players in Carlos Gomez was acquired through trade or free agency.

schaddy24
1 year 1 month ago

Don’t forget Aramis Ramirez.

Better
1 year 1 month ago

Show me a current contender that hasn’t acquired some of it’s top talent through trades or free agency. Do not say Baltimore…

David
1 year 1 month ago

Don’t forget Lohse. Oh and Garza. The Brewers have no farm system so a lot of their players have been acquired via trade and FA. Nice try though.

Joe Forkner
1 year 1 month ago

Some of the Dodgers worse contracts are fully homegrown smh

PWNdroia
1 year 1 month ago

3 general statements and none of them make sense together (no offense).

daveineg
1 year 1 month ago

But they can’t give away a guy who figures to be a 2 or a 3 starter for them for the next 5-6 seasons for 2 months of a guy who gives them a slightly better chance in the postseason.

Zac
1 year 1 month ago

Keywords “figures to be”. How many prospects have not even come close to expectations? To many to count. If Lester comes to the Brewers, he’s automatically your best pitcher and yes he does give them a better chance in the postseason. I’d take that chance. Look at the last time the Brewers made a big trade for a lefty. They got CC. Yes they didn’t win the WS but it made the team better and those big “figured to be” prospects haven’t done anything in Cleveland.

daveineg
1 year 1 month ago

Again, Nelson is a rookie, not a prospect anymore. He’s in the Brewer rotation. When they traded for Sabathia, the only pitcher they gave up was Zach Jackson who Brewer brass didn’t consider more than a throw in and most Brewer fans knew couldn’t pitch. The key guy was LaPorta who was expendable because they had Fielder at the time. Pitchers like Nelson who touch 97, have produced in the minors and now are showing well in the majors are not expendable for smaller revenue teams like the Brewers. Also in the Sabathia deal was Brantley who at the time was in high A ball. Those are the kind of guys the Brewers would consider for Lester.

Trock
1 year 1 month ago

so would he go back to a prospect if he gets sent back down to the minors? Just because you are in the big leagues doesn’t mean you lose the title of a prospect. Is Alcantara not still a prospect because he has been with the big club for a week?

Chris Koch
1 year 1 month ago

Nelson Pitched for Milw to finish in September last season. The only reason Nelson doesn’t have 5-10 more Starts on this season is because they were restricting him from Super 2 status.

oh Hal
1 year 1 month ago

Depends on who you ask, but the sacred top lists from people like BA say once they have a certain number of ABs (on innings pitched) they are no longer prospects. Being in the minors doesn’t make a former prospect one again. Its all semantics but the relevant point is that Nelson has gone all the way through the minors, was the best pitcher in AAA and looks pretty good in the majors. Saying he might not work out because he is a “prospect” is silly. Lester might not pitch well in the playoffs either.

aaron
1 year 1 month ago

Michael Brantley says hi

Sage
1 year 1 month ago

You mean the PTBNL says hi. I think the point is that the big name prospects in the CC deal didn’t do jack with Cleveland, or anywhere else for that matter (looking at you, LaPorta). The sure-fire, “figured to be” prospects did nothing.

Chris Koch
1 year 1 month ago

How many Prospects traded away for these Rentals turn in to All-Stars for years?

Zac
1 year 1 month ago

Actually looking at the Brewers last few trades that include Greinke and CC, the prospects the other teams received haven’t done much. A majority of prospects never become what they’re hyped out to be.

Chris Koch
1 year 1 month ago

Here’s the problem with trading Nelson away for Rental of Lester. Unlike CC or Grienke, Lester provides ZERO compensation when he leaves via FA. The Brewers can’t offer him a QO. Grienke was for 2 full seasons of own not 2 months. CC should have netted the Brewers a top 25 draft pick but were screwed over by the Angels getting Trout for loss of Texiera. Well that pick that Trout went. You tell me how CC nets the 39th pick in compensation for loss of while Brian Shouse nets Milw the 47thpick? CC was the biggest FA loss in that FA and the Brewers got a 39th pick for it?

Back on topic. Lester is a 10-12 Starts rental with nothing else to get for him when he leaves for FA. There’s no comparing him to CC or Grienke because they at least got something back when they leave.
Lester isn’t worthy of Milw’s #1 prospect nor the names Pederson/Seager/Tavaras. And the reason why is because he gives the receiving team nothing back when he departs.

Patrick the Pragmatist
1 year 1 month ago

I think pretty much the entire package Montreal gave up to get Bartolo Colon did. Cliff Lee, Grady Sizemore and Brandon Philips. Lee Stevens was also sent to Cleveland in that deal but he was a veteran not a prospect.

Chris Koch
1 year 1 month ago

Agreed. 10-12 Starts for 180starts. Makes no sense.

craigcounsellhitsbombs
1 year 1 month ago

Kershaw has a career 4.23 ERA in the postseason, Lohse has a 4.86. Garza? 3.48.

Greinke? 4.30.

The Dodgers aren’t an auto-win because they have a great 1-3 in their rotation. In a 7 game series, I’d put Lohse, Peralta, Nelson, and Garza up against anyone else in the majors.

Plus to win a World Series, you have to score runs. So far this season, the Dodgers and Brewers are basically neck and neck in every offensive category except 2: Home Runs and Runs Scored. Two categories that play a large part in winning games.

Both teams are going to get to October. At that point, it’s anyone’s Series to take.

Better
1 year 1 month ago

Lester turns the tide…who wants to go to the World Series more?

Mochi
1 year 1 month ago

Lester would at best be the Dodgers 3rd best pitcher. Dodgers are fine without him.

Better
1 year 1 month ago

He’d be their best postseason pitcher, which is the only reason you pick him up. No one is taking Greinke over Lester in game 7 of a LCS or WS. You’d find people (outside of Boston) that would even take him over Kershaw in that situation.

Mochi
1 year 1 month ago

Highly doubt you find somebody who isn’t a Red Sox fan that agrees to that. Kershaw is much better than Lester, it’s not even close.

not_brooks
1 year 1 month ago

I’m an Oriole fan. Dominated by Jon Lester for 20-some starts until my team rose from obscurity and scorn to take down the Red Sox in the final game of the 2011 season.

Clayton Kershaw is easily the best pitcher in the game right now, but I’d still take Lester over Kershaw in a Game 7, and here’s why:

Lester: 2.11 ERA in 76 postseason innings. 3-0 with a 0.43 ERA in 21 World Series innings.

Kershaw: 4.38 ERA in 38 postseason innings. 0-3 with a 7.23 ERA in 18 LCS innings.

Trock
1 year 1 month ago

I am a Red Sox fan as well as a Cubs fan. I think I take Kershaw. He doesn’t have good stats in the small sample size but the guy dominates every other start really. He will find a playoff form.

Better
1 year 1 month ago

But right now, that a risk not a given. Jon Lester in the playoffs is a given, not a risk. If you’re LA and you want to win this year (and ownership has said it’s a “must win” year) you do what you have to do to get Lester. That makes them the unquestionable favorite to come out of the NL.

Joe Forkner
1 year 1 month ago

How will Lester pitch on another team, in a foreign clubhouse? It is all a risk.

Better
1 year 1 month ago

Kershaw is insane. If I have 162 games to play and I get to choose between the 2 I’m taking Kershaw every time but the fact is he has struggled in the playoffs and Lester is lights out in clutch situations. Given the choice of who starts game 7 of a playoff series, smart money is on Jon Lester. It’s not debatable right now. I guarantee the Dodgers are not 100% confident in Kershaw/Greinke in the playoffs.

Fangaffes
1 year 1 month ago

Well then by all means. Some team competing with the Dodgers should have him instead.

aaron
1 year 1 month ago

Holy small sample size of playoff stats. I have no idea why people overvalue playoff stats. I’d take Kershaw over ANY starter in the MLB in the regular season and playoffs

TheRealRyan
1 year 1 month ago

It really blows my mind too. Fans also seem to get very irrational with selective memory about the postseason. Two players below with similar postseason numbers, yet one is considered an all time clutch player, while the other is considered a complete choke artist.

Jeter .374/.465/.838 overall, .751 ALCS OPS, .832 WS OPS
Arod .369/.464/.833 overall, .981 ALCS OPS, .973 WS OPS

hediouspb
1 year 1 month ago

I would take Kershaw over lester too. of course the point here is to have them both so they can do what Johnson and schilling did to the Yankees all those years ago.

Zac
1 year 1 month ago

I hope you’re not a betting man.

Travis2014
1 year 1 month ago

You seem pretty confident they will make the postseason…have you watched the games lately? I’d say it is no for sure thing

craigcounsellhitsbombs
1 year 1 month ago

They’ve gone 5-3 since the break. Two of the losses were 2-0 and 2-1. The third was a blown save/three run homerun. That could have easily been a 7-0 homestand if Roenicke isn’t dumb and avoids pitching to Lucas Duda in the 9th or if Reynolds’ moonshot doesn’t hit off the stadium roof.
55 games left. Figure 86-ish wins makes the playoffs. That means they’d have to go 31-24 to finish the season. Yes. I’m very confident that can happen.
People act like that stretch before the break was representative of the whole season. They had a bad run of games. Every team has them. The sky isn’t falling in Milwaukee.

Travis2014
1 year 1 month ago

My judgement had nothing to do with the massive losing streak. But their inconsistencies will mean they won’t go that much over .500 the rest of the way and their schedule is brutal. I could easily see them miss out.

Also 31-24 is not that easy. It is a better winning percentage than they have now and their schedule has been fairly easy up to this point. not to mention 86 wins won’t win them the division.

craigcounsellhitsbombs
1 year 1 month ago

What inconsistencies? They’re in the top 10 in every offensive category, 12th in team ERA (behind 5 teams who aren’t even in the playoff picture so it can be argued that it’s not even a relevant stat), and are sitting 11 games over .500.
Their only consistent problem has been their manager’s bullpen management and bunt-calling.
Braun has 14 HR, 61 RBI, and is batting .294 in what’s easily the worst year of his career due to nagging injuries. If he can turn it on in the last two months, dear god. Same goes with Segura and Davis. Both of them slumped badly in the first few months but have heated up in the past 6 weeks.
Lohse is pitching like an ace. Peralta is starting to figure out how good he actually is. Garza turned it around after a terrible first month and a half.
I’m not saying they’re a shoe in, but looking at the injuries in St. Louis and Cinci, I’d say they’re the easy favorite.

oh Hal
1 year 1 month ago

What I’d say is that every team has a degree of inconsistency. They don’t seem that bad to me. If anything, I’d say they were resilient. I wouldn’t say they’re “easy” favorites though.

Chris Koch
1 year 1 month ago

Beating LA only matters if Brewers actually even face LA. They could face Atl then StL who beats LA and the Brewers never have to even blink at LA’s Pitching.
Peralta to me is better than both Lohse and Garza. His bad outings are of the dink/dunk can’t believe 5 straight batted balls in play that barely made it to the outfield found holes for hits.

Brewers need a 1b/OF platoon bat from the LH side far more than they need a what? .5run in 7innings improvement for 10-12starts. Look at why the Brewers aren’t winning in July. Runs scored. Not due to Starting Pitching.

TheRealRyan
1 year 1 month ago

I’m not saying that Brewers are all smoke and mirrors, but this team has been lucky, especially the SP. As a team, their ERA has outperformed their FIP by .35 runs and they have a BaBIP .025 points lower than the ML average for SP. Looking at Peralta specifically and his ERA is 0.69 runs better than his FIP to go with a BaBIP .013 points lower than the ML average. Counting on that kind of luck is risky and could become a pretty big problem when it regresses back to the norm.

Chris Koch
1 year 1 month ago

Did you really post concern of .013pts lower than ML avg? What is ML avg? How about looking up Lester’s numbers for me. Tell me where his BaBIP sits compared to avg?
Trying to pick on Peralta’s numbers is pretty crazy when he’s the team’s most talented pitcher. I’d worry more on Lohse or Gallardo’s numbers before worrying about Peralta’s.
I’m pretty sure you can nitpick every good starter and find numbers that don’t fit avg. What’s Kershaw’s FIP? and his BaBIP? How’s that fit to ML avg? Honestly, I mentioned somewhere else where in the games Peralta has given up his most runs, was a fact of LUCK going against him. Poorly hit groundballs that fell in to holes. Peralta is a GB pitcher so his numbers should be better than expectations. He’s going to induce more double plays getting out of more jams. Vs. allowing Flyballs/HRs. Maybe Lucroy’s Pitch Framing ability also helps in this luck you’re concerned about?

TheRealRyan
1 year 1 month ago

Your post brought up how the Brewers don’t need pitching and how Peralta is their best pitcher who has had some bad luck. I looked up the numbers and the truth is the opposite. Peralta has had good luck, not bad luck.

You also mention that he is a ground ball pitcher and that explains his good luck. However, the statistics show GB have a higher BaBIP than fly balls, so he should have even a higher BaBIP, not lower. Lucroy’s pitch framing should help improve their K and BB rates. Their BB rates are better than average, but their K rates are below average. Again, another reason to think they are outperforming expectations and getting lucky.

You can hold out hope that the Brewers will continue to out pitch their DIP stats and outperform their Pythagorean W/L, but I think they are due for some regression back to the average. I still think they can win their division and have a good chance at the playoffs. I just don’t see them in their current form being one of the top teams and a true WS contender.

CharlieMurphy
1 year 1 month ago

No one ever wants to give up their prospects, but giving up a 25 year old who’s started 5 games in the majors (and has fallen out of MLB’s top 50 prospects) for a proven, bonafide playoff ace is far from terrible. Prospects are never a sure thing, and guys like Lester don’t come often or easily… even if you’re just talking about a rental.

Remember a few years ago when people were comparing Tyler Thornburg to Tim Lincecum? Not saying Nelson can’t become a good starter, but that’s the risk a team like the Sox would be taking on.

Travis2014
1 year 1 month ago

Ok you have made two horribly false comments.

1. Jimmy Nelson was never in the Top 50 prospects…till now. He just recent moved from 86 to 38.

2. They compared Thornburgs delivery to Lincecum….not his potential.

CharlieMurphy
1 year 1 month ago

1. I was referring to MLB’s rankings, where he is currently just out of the top 50

2. Thornbug was the Brewers #2 prospect behind Peralta and Nelson was #19. My point is that it’s laughable to assume that giving up Nelson is “terrible” and not worth stabilizing their playoff rotation with a guy like Lester.

Travis2014
1 year 1 month ago

The way I see it Jimmy Nelson isn’t an Ace and never will be. I think he is expendable in the right deal. He isn’t a future difference maker, just a #3 starter type guy.

The Brewers can’t internally get an Ace so they have to make deals like this to get one. Just the unfortunate reality. If he was a true future top of the rotation starter my thoughts would be different.

CharlieMurphy
1 year 1 month ago

1. I was referring to MLB’s rankings, where he is currently just out of the top 50

2. Thornbug was the Brewers #2 prospect behind Peralta and Nelson was #19. My point is that it’s laughable to assume that giving up Nelson is “terrible” and not worth stabilizing their playoff rotation with a guy like Lester.

Chris Koch
1 year 1 month ago

Yeah he’s 25. He was drafted out of College. His issue was control. This season he’s cleaned up his control immensely, thus why as just below he’s moved from 86 to top 50 prospect ranking. His age is why it’s not higher. It’s not due to lack of stuff/talent.

oh Hal
1 year 1 month ago

They don’t need a RH reliever, Melvin will quote you endless stats on 1B to defend what he’s got and I’m not sure what people imagine can be traded for on the bench. Melvin will trade Nelson and more for a couple months if he gets the chance. Yeah, its a terrible idea.

Zac
1 year 1 month ago

The Sox would be better off just keeping him. Unless you getting Seager or Bundy (who would not be included because of Lester’s contract) why would the sox make the trade? Prospects are just prospects. Most of them become over-hyped and don’t come close to expectations. The Sox have one of the best prospects in the game in Bogaerts and I’m still on the fence on whether or not be’ll become an all-star type player. Pony up the cash you have and resign Lester because I’d rather have him then another over-hyped prospect unless you plan on using that to acquire someone like Stanton.

Better
1 year 1 month ago

Seems like they’re plan is to trade him in a deal that lands them a top prospect and then resign him in the offseason. No guarantees, but if it happens it’s a great day for the Sox GM.

Zac
1 year 1 month ago

Yeah but if Lester hits Free Agency and the Yankees get involved, the sox are in trouble.

vlock1
1 year 1 month ago

This is what I keep thinking, and it horrifies me.

Chris Koch
1 year 1 month ago

The Sox if they lose Lester via FA will at least get a comp pick. while Yankees lose their 1st rd pick.

Or I’m guessing you’re talking his FA pricetag? Well if Lester is traded away guess what? He’s still becoming a FA and that pricetag doesn’t change. Sox aren’t in trouble. The teams acquiring Lester are.

Better
1 year 1 month ago

Agreed. The Red Sox have an equal or better shot at signing him as anyone else. I’m not sure where people got the idea that there is some type of rift between Lester and Red Sox mgmt. There isn’t.

daveineg
1 year 1 month ago

Nelson was the most dominant starter in all of AAA this season. He throws 94-97 with sink. You are grossly undervaluing him. Hasn’t Lester said he’d consider signing with Boston as a FA too? Brewers would be fools to deal him for Lester.

Zac
1 year 1 month ago

Yes he seems like a good player just like any other highly ranked prospect/rookie. A dominant season in AAA doesn’t guarantee big league success. I’d rather keep Lester and have the chance of resigning him before the Yanks get involved then trading him for something that’s unproven. Lester is a proven MLB pitcher with 2 WS Rings. If he hits the open market, I don’t see him coming back to the Sox. Money talks and if a team like the Yankees offers more years and money, I wouldn’t be surprised at all if he took it.

Chris Koch
1 year 1 month ago

As stated above. You can get something for losing Lester. Any other team but Boston will be losing something to get Lester.
Nelson alone would be a heckuva return vs. relying on your chances of a 27-32ish Draft Comp. It’s great to argue against Prospects like 100% of them flameout. Lester was a Prospect himself at some point. They do succeed many times over. Nelson has a lot going for him. He appears at worst an innings eating #3 for a team. At best a dominant #2.

Zac
1 year 1 month ago

Yes he seems like a good player just like any other highly ranked prospect/rookie. A dominant season in AAA doesn’t guarantee big league success. I’d rather keep Lester and have the chance of resigning him before the Yanks get involved then trading him for something that’s unproven. Lester is a proven MLB pitcher with 2 WS Rings. If he hits the open market, I don’t see him coming back to the Sox. Money talks and if a team like the Yankees offers more years and money, I wouldn’t be surprised at all if he took it.

David
1 year 1 month ago

As a Cardinals fan, I am fine with Milwaukee throwing more prospects away for rentals. It only means they’ll be in the cellar again for three years. It seems to be the pattern they follow. Why aren’t they looking for a 1B?

Zac
1 year 1 month ago

That last time they traded for a lefty (CC), they gave away Matt Laporta, Brantley, Bryson, and Zach Jackson to Cleveland. None of these so called big prospects at the time helped Cleveland. CC on the other hand was dominant for the Brewers and helped them make the playoffs.

daveineg
1 year 1 month ago

Zach Jackson wasn’t close to a big time prospect. He was a marginal prospect at best who had struggled big time in the big leagues in trials with the Brewers. Bryson wasn’t a prospect either. Brantley was maybe 8 or 10 on the Brewer prospect list but was in A ball. LaPorta was the big time prospect in the deal but he was expendable because the Brewers had Fielder.

oh Hal
1 year 1 month ago

I wouldn’t use that as a rationalization to trade prospects. What would be your response if the 3 or 4 players it takes to get Lester all turn into major leaguers with an all star or 2? Is it “oh well” we had a shot and lost so its worth it?

Zac
1 year 1 month ago

We could do what ifs all day. What if the sox trade Lester to the Brewers and they win the world series. What if the prospects acquired by the sox are busts. What if the Brewers keep their prospects and they turn out to be nothing. What if the Brewers don’t acquire Lester and make the playoffs but they just don’t have the pitching to compete. If the Brewers think they have a good shot to win now and have a deep farm system than Lester would be a great pick up. It’d bring in a #1 starter without emptying the farm because it was deep to begin with. If they don’t then they shouldn’t acquire him enough said. The sox gambled on some prospects this year instead of veterans and it turned out to bite them in you know where. Every team is different.