Phillies Pull Hamels Back From Waivers

1:53pm: The Phillies have pulled Hamels back off waivers after the two sides were unable to strike a deal, tweets Paul Sulivan of the Chicago Tribune.

FRIDAY, 8:43am: In an updated version of his original article, Wittenmyer writes that the Cubs may prefer to add an ace-caliber starter via free agency this winter. They’ll have multiple options to do so with Max Scherzer, James Shields and Jon Lester (whom Cubs president Theo Epstein and GM Jed Hoyer know well) hitting the open market. Jon Heyman of CBS Sports hears the same, reporting that the Cubs are “expected to be aggressive” on the free agent market.

THURSDAY: As many have been speculating since Cole Hamels was placed on revocable waivers, the Cubs have indeed been awarded the claim on the Philadelphia ace, Mike Missanelli of ESPN 97.5 in Philadelphia first tweeted. However, Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times reports that a deal is almost certainly not going to happen. The Phillies, according to Wittenmyer’s sources, have asked the Cubs for one of their prized young shortstops as the centerpiece to a trade. Because both Starlin Castro and Javier Baez are already on the 40-man roster and would therefore be subject to revocable waivers themselves, Addison Russell (and others) is the likely asking price, according to Wittenmyer.

The two sides will have 48.5 hours from the moment of the claim in order to work out a trade. Any 40-man roster players to change hands in a theoretical deal would also need to clear waivers. If and when the two sides decide that a deal cannot be reached, the Phillies can simply pull Hamels back off waivers. Hamels’ contract does allow him to block trades to 20 teams, but as ESPN’s Jayson Stark reported earlier today, the Cubs are not one of those 20 clubs. So, in the unlikely event that a deal is agreed upon, Hamels would have no say in vetoing the transaction.

While the Cubs have the financial capability to assume the remaining $100MM+ on Hamels’ contract and the prospect depth to acquire nearly any available player via trade, Wittenmyer reports that the team has “no desire” to use both surpluses on a single player.

It’s certainly not outlandish for the Phillies to ask for Russell and other high-end prospects in order to part with Hamels. The Cubs, after all, acquired Russell (along with 2013 first-rounder Billy McKinney and controllable starter Dan Straily) in exchange for a year and a half of Jeff Samardzija‘s services and three months of Jason Hammel.

Clearly, Hamels has more long-term value than the combination of the two arms the Cubs sent to Oakland. While his salary is sizable, a $22.5MM annual commitment is actually below-market for a top-of-the-rotation arm, which Hamels clearly is. He’s pitched to a 2.42 ERA with 9.1 K/9, 2.6 BB/9 and a 46.9 percent ground-ball rate in 137 1/3 innings this season. He’s controlled through the 2018 season at that same $22.5MM rate, and his vesting option for the 2019 campaign comes with a $6MM buyout. However, if the Phils truly wish to shop Hamels — and there’s been little to no indication that they do — they’d likely be better suited to wait until the offseason, when all 29 other teams could bid for his services and potentially drive up the price.

For those who are unfamiliar with revocable waivers or post-July 31 trading, check out MLBTR’s primer on August trades.


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484 Comments on "Phillies Pull Hamels Back From Waivers"


sflomenb
1 year 19 days ago

Do it Ruben!!!

Phillyfan425
1 year 19 days ago

Meh. No guarantee that the Cubs would even trade Russell. Plus, I’d rather have the field open (i.e. in the offseason) that way you aren’t restricted to just 1 team. The only real risk you are taking in waiting (assuming you’d trade him at all) is that he’ll get injured in the next 8-10 starts (which don’t get me wrong, I get it’s still a big risk). While that is a risk – I’m not sure it outweighs only being able to negotiate with 1 team.

James Davies
1 year 19 days ago

Though to be fair the Cubs minor league system is arguably better than the combined value of many of the other club systems at this point. Maybe it’s best to deal exclusively with the best farm system on the table, I don’t know?

On the other end I’m a Cubs fan and just don’t know why you would give up a top prospect when you can get a free agent of similar value during the offseason and keep your prospect for later deals down the road.

Trock
1 year 19 days ago

My thoughts exactly. They have the money to sign possibly 2 out of Lester Scerzer and Shields. The only question is if 2 out of the 3 want to sign with Cubs, who are probably at least another year away from competing (if the prospects pan out like planned)

NotCanon
1 year 19 days ago

Alternatively, why not get (arguably) a pitcher who’s better than the 3 “prime” FA starters this year, and guarantee it’s a shorter contract than what you’ll be forced to pay for the other guys?

Trock
1 year 19 days ago

It really depends on what you have to give up for hamel. If you have to give up more then Russell (top prospect wise) why put yourself in that position? Not all of their prospects pan out and they have been waiting for the right time to unleash all of them on the major league roster. This is a few years in the making. You don’t trade 2 of your top prospects who have been part of your planned future. Not gonna happen especially if they can fill the void for needing an ace through FA not having to give up anything as long as they don’t have a QO tied to them

Jaysfan1994
1 year 19 days ago

He’s going to ask for too much or too little like he always does. Personally I feel RAJ waited too long to make a trade, any major league ready talent has to be exposed to trade waivers before being dealt so the return is likely to include a number of Single-A talent.

Phillyfan425
1 year 19 days ago

I don’t think he’s looking for major league talent. He did a radio interview the other day, where he openly hinted (for the first time) that he’s looking more toward 2016-2017 instead of 2015.

Jaysfan1994
1 year 19 days ago

Well it’s more dangerous projecting what talents are going to become when you’re dealing with guys in the lower levels of an organization. Any good return of Hamels likely evaporated by the start of the August Trade Waivers.

I think he might’ve been able to get Arrieta/Russell and some low level A-Ball talent if he made this trade last month.

Trock
1 year 19 days ago

I proposed a trade like that back when the Price trade was announced. People called me crazy but I feel as though Rays would of jumped at that trade. How do you feel?

Jaysfan1994
1 year 19 days ago

Hamels is under contract for a much longer time at under market value. It wouldn’t make sense for the Cubs to give up someone for Price when they’d only be getting 1 and 1/2 years out of him before he hits Free Agency.

So, no it’s a horrible trade for someone who wouldn’t help the Cubs that much in the long run.

Jimmy Fredrickson
1 year 19 days ago

The Cubs got Cole Hamels?? Theo is the best GM in baseball!!!1

sflomenb
1 year 19 days ago

No, they just claimed him. Nothing happened yet.

dc21892
1 year 19 days ago

They didn’t get him and Theo isn’t a GM.

Karkat
1 year 19 days ago

I like how, in addition to the obvious thing that’s wrong, Theo isn’t even the GM. Poor Jed Hoyer, nobody remembers him xD

Tesseract
1 year 19 days ago

Theoyer or Jedstein

Jaysfan1994
1 year 19 days ago

I wonder what Cub fan’s think Jed Hoyer actually does? I’d think he gets Theo’s coffee in the morning then sleeps under his desk for the rest of the day like George Costanza.

RonTrauma
1 year 19 days ago

He makes Theo’s decisions. Everyone knows that silly.

Tempguy
1 year 19 days ago

He watches Moneyball on repeat and tries to figure out all of the different meanings.

Jason Ruthkoski
1 year 19 days ago

Lol now that gave me a chuckle. Nicely done.

KJ4realz
1 year 19 days ago

This is the one time I’m going to applaud Ruben. Russell, if no one else, (I can understand not Bryant or Baez) should be the headline. You got him for Shark, you’re going to need to give him up to get Hamels.

CityCub219
1 year 19 days ago

Do you honestly think a 31 year old+ Cole Hamels is worth a top 5/10 prospect in baseball? Yeah right lol

Jeff Miller
1 year 19 days ago

James Shields at 31 was. He was also far less accomplished at the time and only signed for 2 years.

CityCub219
1 year 19 days ago

Sorry. We’re not the Royals who overpay to keep a fan base happy. You’re out of your mind. And far less accomplished? Last time I knew, Shields has more career wins than Hamels, and has placed higher than him in Cy Young voting.

Phillyfan425
1 year 19 days ago

Wins and Cy Young voting?! Ok, that was funny.

Jaysfan1994
1 year 19 days ago

Might as well look at how many RBI’s and Gold Gloves these guys have over the years too.

Jeff Miller
1 year 19 days ago

Wins… seriously?

Bob
1 year 19 days ago

you still holding out hope for Brett Jackson to be that MVP?

Tempguy
1 year 19 days ago

MVP of the local Men’s softball league.

CityCub219
1 year 19 days ago

Nah, he couldn’t win MVP if he was the only player in the league. Lol I like how you pick his name out of the bunch.

Bob
1 year 19 days ago

you come back when James Shields is a world series MVP

TheoHoyer
1 year 19 days ago

Please dont use wins or Cy Young voting as a metric.

….making us Cubs fans look bad.

CityCub219
1 year 19 days ago

Not using it as a metric. Trust me.

1 year 19 days ago

But you did.

TommyC
1 year 19 days ago

What’s worse is Hamels has a higher winning % than Shields and has finished 5, 6 and 8 in Cy Young voting compared to Shields’ 3 and 11.

Even the misleading stats don’t lean in Shields’ favor.

Ray Ray
1 year 19 days ago

No you are the Cubs that hold onto prospects like Corey Patterson, Felix Pie, Josh Vitters, Brett Jackson, and many others until they become worthless. Yes there is a way to play both of your top SS prospects, but wouldn’t turning one of them into a top flight pitcher make more sense?

Dills
1 year 19 days ago

Patterson, Pie, Vitters, Jackson… all pre Epstein / Hoyer I believe.

Ray Ray
1 year 19 days ago

Sure that matters. It’s not like Boston ever had a major prospect bust like Lars Anderson or anything.

Trock
1 year 19 days ago

I have to agree with this. Baez and Alcantara look to fill the IF with Bryant moving to the OF with Soler and someone else. If they can turn Russell plus a few other smaller pieces to land Hammels, I am all for it. If the Phillies ask for more top flight prospects (which I believe they should) I hang up the phone. Cubs need to be patient and see which of these prospects will pan out (because not all of them will) and we need them to establish the infield and OF and can hopefully fill the pitching staff with some FA.

gaius marius
1 year 19 days ago

different deals are different, folks.

Shields was a 4 WAR starter when he moved, but he was working under an extension that paid him just $9mm in 2013 and $13.5m in 2014. the going price of WAR in the market is about $6mm.

so his work was reasonably going to be expected to be worth (4*2*6) = $48mm over those two years, while he was going to be paid just $21.5MM. that means Shields was valuable to the tune of (48-21) = $27mm to the Royals. so the Royals are obviously going to have to offer value in return, in the form of good prospects.

Hamels, on the other hand, is a 4 WAR starter that is getting paid $22.5mm per for the next four years. that is full price — he’s getting paid everything he’s worth, and there is no, zero, nada residual value for the team.

so ask yourself — why would anyone give value to get that player with no value? when they can just go sign Lester or Scherzer in the offseason and retain all their in-house value?

halflink123
1 year 19 days ago

Exactly right-no reason to give up a top prospect for something you can replicate on the FA Market

TYLER
1 year 19 days ago

lester isnt a lock…there are a ton of reports that say hes going back to Boston…Think about it, trading Shark for Hamels (assuming they want russell)….inspite of the money….i would do the deal! then if you get lester or scherzer, or shields….that would just make the Cubs pitching staff the best in the NL!!! DO IT THEO!!!!!!!

halflink123
1 year 19 days ago

What? It might be the best next year or the year after, but you don’t want to have a staff full of old, expensive, long term pitching contracts. That could ruin the Cubs as easily as it could help, especially since the Cubs have Arrieta and some other great young starters

TYLER
1 year 19 days ago

your right, the money we would be taking for Hamels is not a good thing! Getting Hamels…he would be the Cubs #1 starter going into 2015, he has an era this year of 2.42, our best is Travis with an era of….wait for it….5.00…either way you look at it, Hamels would be an upgrade. To the point of pitching prospects….what do we have….like 2, thats nothing to write home about.

zimzyma
1 year 19 days ago

What about cost certainty and shorter commitment? Who knows what Lester or Scherzer are looking for in dollars or years, and which competitor teams are willing to meet that price – or go above that to gain an edge? And then of course are you certain that even if you pay enough, the player still wants to come to your team as an FA?

gaius marius
1 year 19 days ago

i don’t know what they’re looking for, but what they’re likely to get is around $6.2mm per WAR per annum in free agency. and i think it’s going to be tough to get six years for these 30-year-olds, because everyone is watching what PED testing has done to longevity. who wants to carry a 36-year-old starter? they aren’t very good.

Hamels, if he hits his vesting option, which he would if he’s still any good, is under contract through 35. so there’s plenty of duration risk there.

timpa
1 year 19 days ago

Cole Hamels is not a power pitcher and a lefty. His fastball velo has actually ticked upward the last few seasons. His mentality on the mound is stronger as well. There’s no way a Cole Hamels early in his career could handle playing with so little run support and not get lit up.

He’s been a top-10 pitcher in WAR accumulated this decade. He’s on pace for another 4.0+ WAR season and having one of his best statistical seasons as well.

Domonic Brown was the #1 prospect in baseball. Just because someone is a top-5 prospect, doesn’t mean they become a top player. I don’t think Kris Bryant makes sense, but Russell? Sure. If Samardzja (far less proven and not locked up longterm) plus a guy signed as a FA in the off-season can get Russell, a 2013 first round pick and another pitcher then yea I think Hamels is worth a top-5/10 prospect.

CityCub219
1 year 19 days ago

It doesn’t matter what Russell was traded for. Samardzija provides Oakland with huge value In 2014(also in 2015; FA after the season). Hamels on the other hand, doesn’t provide any value in 2014. He’s not coming from a last place team to a contender, which hurts his value on the market. Which is a closed market because your GM is a late night toker asking for way too much. There’s a reason no team got involved at the deadline for him, and now you’re seeing waiver moves made for him, which also drops value.

Jeff Miller
1 year 19 days ago

How does a waiver claim drop his value? Top players get placed on revocable waivers all the time.

CityCub219
1 year 19 days ago

It drops because you have one team involved. Not 29 like you would at the deadline or offseason. It’s okay, you overvalue your players. But you’ll counter with I over value the cubs’ prospects. Who all happen to be prettttty good; prospects or not.

Jeff Miller
1 year 19 days ago

Only being able to deal 1 with time doesn’t lower Hamels value at all. They can pull him back, wait 3 months and deal with the rest of the league.

northsidez
1 year 19 days ago

The rest of the League? Name 5 teams that have payroll and prospects to get a deal done? And of those 5 teams name one that would rather give in to Philly’s asking price rather than sign one of the high FA available this off season? I bet the Cubs offered the Phillies more than 26 teams could possibly offer them in the off season. Hamels will start for Philly next season and put any rebuild another season behind.

Jeff Miller
1 year 19 days ago

Teams with enough payroll flexibility and prospects/young players: Cubs, Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers, Marlins, Astros, Rangers, Mets, Mariners, Diamondbacks, Padres, Rockies, Cardinals, Blue Jays and possibly the Twins. That’s pretty much half the league.

Of course teams would rather spend money than prospects, but how many front of the rotation arms are available in free agency? This off-season is extremely rare with possibly 3. Next year there might be 1 if Price isn’t extended in Detroit, maybe 2 if Greinke opts out.

timpa
1 year 19 days ago

That one team involved cuts both ways though. The Cubs know this is the only chance they have to talk with the Phillies about Hamels and not have another team ‘jump in’. That opportunity will not present itself during the off-season.

It’s sort of similar to how in the NHL some teams will give up draft picks in early June in order to get the FA rights to a player who will become a FA in July. They want to negotiate solely and try to get them signed before they hit the open market.

You could say “Well, why bother to give up something you didn’t have to give up?” but it’s to give the chance to bypass other teams and get the player.

CityCub219
1 year 19 days ago

I’m pretty sure the cubs aren’t worried about that. If they truly wanted him at the deadline; they woulda made a move for him. Just because they took a flyer on the waiver wire(which Theo does constantly anyway), doesn’t mean they want exclusive discussions.

Chris Koch
1 year 19 days ago

Hamels can Block trades to 20 teams…So there’s only 9 teams he can be traded to not 29 this offseason.

CityCub219
1 year 19 days ago

Keyword: Can.

TommyC
1 year 19 days ago

There was a report before the deadline that said a source close with the team felt he would be in favor of leaving for a contender. He could waive it.

Chris Koch
1 year 19 days ago

What kind of Value does Russell provide to the Cubs team in 2014?…I don’t get it, you’re so keen to keeping Russell for his “Future” but completely ignore the FUTURE Hamels provides the Cubs Rotation? The Cubs have 0 SPs to write home about currently.
Get Hamels for Russell..Sign Lester and Shields and tell me how good do the Cubs look in 2015? Or does Russell riding the AAA team’s bus with signing Lester/Shields sound better for 2015 to you?

Chris Adams
1 year 19 days ago

Arrieta… That is all

Chris Koch
1 year 19 days ago

Before you even consider 17 Good Starts by Arrieta a defining of being a good pitcher to write home about…The Brewers had 16 Good Pitcher Starts to begin a season from Mike Fiers at 2.85ERA. Fiers hasn’t provided Milw with a Quality Start since then. When Arrieta makes it through 31 GS performing as he has, then I would take notice but Start #17 for Arrieta? 5ip 9ER may just be the beginning of the downturn/arm tire coming from him. He’s also avoided facing Milw/Pitts thus far which is coming and they are in the top 5 offenses in the NL in Runs scored….I wouldn’t be surprised if Arrieta finished with an ERA north of 4.0

jcov18
1 year 17 days ago

8 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 5 K, 1 BB last night….I think Fiers saw your comment…

Chris Koch
1 year 16 days ago

I was happy to see that! 1st QS in 2years out of him almost to the day! Doesn’t make Fiers a quality SP. The 29other ML teams aren’t clamoring to get him for 33 Starts next season.

Jason Ruthkoski
1 year 19 days ago

Arrieta and Hendricks both have looked good. Not top of the rotation good but respectable 3/4 options. The reason you keep Russell is there’s no guarantee all of these guys pan out, so you keep them all until you have a better idea of how things will shake out. Some of these guys WILL bust, you just need to hit on more than you miss to fill out a pretty darn good team.
From a rotation perspective, it doesn’t make a lot of sense to give up your financial surplus AND farm system depth on one player. The only way a deal would get done here is if the Phillies want / need $ relief and would take a package centered around anyone not on the 40 man not named Russell (Almora / Edwards / Shwarber)?
Since that’s likely not the asking price for the Phils, I see this as a flyer from Theo / Jed, which in the mean time keeps Hamels away from other teams in their division, and drives up his asking price if the Phils shop him this offseason. If your not going to get him, you want it to hurt for your competitors. To put simply… even though a deal was unlikely, there was no reason NOT to put in the claim.

NotCanon
1 year 19 days ago

The problem is that no team hits on more prospects than they miss. Even for top prospects, the washout rate is above 50%.

Meanwhile, those prospects you held onto long enough to “have a better idea of how things will shake out” will either be pieces you want to keep (not the most likely outcome) or will lose their value, and thus no longer be worth enough in trade to get you MLB-proven talent.

Prospects are important, don’t get me wrong. However, the overvaluing of prospects by fans (and, seemingly, by some teams as well) has reached ridiculous proportions.

Jason Ruthkoski
1 year 19 days ago

I’ll agree with you there the washout rate is well above 50 / 50 overall for MOST prospects BUT… as a sampling, take a look at the top 25 prospects from 2008: link to baseballamerica.com
Some pretty big names on there. Saying most of these guys are not going to not amount to anything is pretty nuts when you look at that. Most of the top guys will at least be serviceable major leaguers, with a healthy dose of superstars sprinkled in. I don’t think it’s crazy to say a superstar level prospect is among the most valuable assets in baseball, especially when you consider what these guys get paid prior to reaching free agency vs. what they get after.

Chris Koch
1 year 19 days ago

Um, Yeah 3years of Cole Hamels is worth Russell imo. Hamels is a Legit #1 SP(not an Ace like Kershaw…but a #1 nonetheless)
Russell? You really want to protect him on your future team when you have what? 2 Other SS options? So Yaay, you get to keep Russell so he can sit on the Bench/ Play on Sunday Lineups?
Meanwhile your Sunday Pitcher gives up 4-8ERs losing another game? If Russell is all it costs to nab Hamels the Cubs should feel so lucky!

Jeff Miller
1 year 19 days ago

Russell would be a piece, but it’ll cost significantly more. Another of their top 6, probably Soler, and 2 more good prospects.

johansantana15
1 year 19 days ago

No way, maybe Russell, Arodys Vizcaino, and someone like Welington Castillo or Junior Lake

CityCub219
1 year 19 days ago

Wellington Castillo? No, he wouldn’t go anywhere either. Why would the cubs fill a void to open up another gaping hole? Makes no sense

Jeff Miller
1 year 19 days ago

1 good prospect, a reliever getting pummeled in AAA who missed the previous 2 season, a light hitting catcher and OF currently slashing .216/.243/.366 for a top 5 LHP in his prime under contract for the next 4-5 years? Not a chance.

johansantana15
1 year 17 days ago

3 top 30 prospects in baseball plus 2 more good prospects for a pitcher who will be 31 next season and will be paid $22.5M for the next 4-5 years? Not a chance.

Jeff Miller
1 year 17 days ago

3 top 30 prospects? Where did you get that from? Certainly wasn’t from me.

CityCub219
1 year 19 days ago

Your value of Hamels is about as ridiculous as your GMs. IF the cubs were to deal Russell or anyone for Hamels. The Phillies are gonna eat a huge chunk of the 96m owed over the rest of his contract.

Jeff Miller
1 year 19 days ago

The fact that the Cubs got Russell and McKinney for 1.5 seasons of Samardzija, a lesser pitcher than Hamels, doesn’t seem to register with you.

CityCub219
1 year 19 days ago

The fact that I’ve already said he went to a contender trying to win now, doesn’t seem to register with you. Regardless if Oakland over paid. Stop being salty that the cubs got a steal because Billy wants to win now.

Jeff Miller
1 year 19 days ago

I get that, but what you’re saying is that 1.5 seasons of Samardzija is worth more than 4-5 seasons of Hamels. How is that in any way logical?

Chris Koch
1 year 19 days ago

Money. Samardzija is being paid what? 8/9mil this year? And he most definitely won’t be paid 22mil next season. Based on FA 6mi per WAR, Hamels needs to be nearly a 4WAR player every year of his contract for him to just meet the expected value of it. Say Samardija is owed 12mil next year, There’s 10mil to go be spent in FA to find 1.75WAR for the Team elsewhere.

Jeff Miller
1 year 19 days ago

Is there anything suggesting that Hamels won’t continue to post 4+ WAR through the life of his contract? He’s posted a 4+ WAR in 7 of 8 seasons since his rookie year and hasn’t posted a WAR under 4.6 since ’09.

You’re saying you’d rather have a good SP underpaid for 1.5 years over a top 10-15 SP in his prime at market value for 4-5 years?

Will Bruce
1 year 19 days ago

Point number 2: Billy Beane grossly overpayed for Samardzija and Hammel. Because he didn’t know that the market for TOR starters was going to open up like it did, he ended up paying a big price for two pitchers he believed would push them over the line. Don’t get me wrong, the above comments from our fans side isn’t correct either. It will take high end talent to pry him away, personally I would only feel comfortable with a deal sort of like: Almora, Edwards, Johnson, and a guy like Olt or Lake.

Jonathan Ley
1 year 19 days ago

No way its Soler. Not even possible. IMO he is the Cubs best prospect, which is saying a lot, plus he is on the 40 man roster. He would not make it past one team, let alone 29 and become available to trade. I say Albert Almora, CJ Edwards, Dan Vogelbach and another decent prospect. A deal is highly unlikely, but that would be the extent of talent I would be ok with the team giving up, which is still quite a bit.

Will Bruce
1 year 19 days ago

Okay, lets make something clear here. A top 6 prospect in an organization like the Cubs (Astros and Twins type too), is far more valuable than you think. Through their top 8 they have the numbers: 3, 5, 6, 36, 40, 53, 59, and 78th best prospects in all of baseball. While I value Hamels very highly he isn’t worth the number 6 overall, another top 60 guy and 2 more “good” prospects. Well at least not at his current age with his current contract he isn’t. Not saying that he’s old or overpayed, just that at that amount, I don’t see value in your proposed deal.

NotCanon
1 year 19 days ago

The problem is that those prospects aren’t actually that valuable. Their current projected value is that high, but more than 50% of them won’t even be average MLB players for their careers. As a result, their actual value is far less.

It’s kind of like Bitcoin – their value is only marginally tied to their actual utility, but because of speculation and relative scarcity the price increases exponentially beyond what it’s actually worth.

Will Bruce
1 year 17 days ago

I know this is pretty late in response, but I do agree. Prospects are just prospects until they hit the majors and perform. My issue was just saying casually a top 6 guy, where in a farm system less plentiful that would be in their top 6 guy but in a deeper one it’s more of a 10-15 ranger

johansantana15
1 year 19 days ago

Russell for Hamels straight up would be a huge steal for Chicago

TommyC
1 year 19 days ago

Jeff Samardzija is only a year younger than Hamels and got Russell+. Hamels is also a better pitcher than Samardzija and controlled for twice as long.

Jason Ruthkoski
1 year 19 days ago

Apples and Oranges. The A’s are/were in an arms race with the Tigers, the Cubs want to add pitching for next year / the year after etc. The A’s play in the smallest market in baseball, so Samardzija’s salary was workable, Hamels may not have been. I totally agree Hamels is the better pitcher, but there are other factors at play here.
Two completely different situations.

TommyC
1 year 19 days ago

Sure, the Cubs and A’s value prospects and cost control (respectively) moreso than other teams given their situations.

To a team that can afford to take on a large contract and is in a position to trade prospects for immediate help, though, Hamels value is higher than Samardzija’s.

The Phillies don’t have to trade Hamels to the Cubs. Teams like the Dodgers, Red Sox, Rangers and Yankees will show interest in the offseason and the Phillies could get a better package from one of those teams more on par with his top prospect+ value.

David
1 year 19 days ago

Players on the 25-man roster cannot be PTBNLs in any trade.

Jaysfan1994
1 year 19 days ago

I heard RAJ is asking for Rizzo, Baez, Castro, Arrieta and Russel. RAJ is also willing to throw in Ryan Howard and the precious bag of balls he got for unloading Hunter Pence.

Scott Wega
1 year 19 days ago

Trade all of them Theo! throw in Soler also oh yea

Shane Flannagan
1 year 19 days ago

uhhhhh naw

Scott Wega
1 year 19 days ago

Take Ronnie Woo and its a deal for sure

Craig York
1 year 19 days ago

If I’m the Cubs I’m not parting with any of the top prospects..

Jon
1 year 19 days ago

Cubs would never give up Russell. It was a mistake by Beane to give him up for Shark. He’s putting up insane numbers at AA along with gold glove D at short

gaius marius
1 year 19 days ago

That might be overstating the case, but this article is poor analysis. Hamels simply isn’t valuable because he’s paid so much. A team would have to be desperate to win now – like the A’s – to shed much value to get him. I doubt Beane would have shipped Russell for him. Samardzija and Hammel are controlled salaries and deliver a lot more than they cost. Baseball is a business and what players cost matters.

Gersh
Gersh
1 year 19 days ago

You do realize come this winter Hamels will be below market value?

Jaysfan1994
1 year 19 days ago

Few teams can afford Hamels regardless if he’s below market value. The Phillies could eat a chunk of salary but like people have said before, this is a business and is it really worth eating 50M of a guy’s contract for a bunch of prospects who might never provide anything close to the value of what someone like Cole Hamels will provide in one season?

gaius marius
1 year 19 days ago

Yeah, maybe not. But the Phils badly need some cost controlled talent, and if they have to eat $40mm up front to take the chance of getting it they might.

johansantana15
1 year 19 days ago

The Cubs can afford Hamels. Including raises for the arb-eligible players and assuming they resign their three FAs, the Cubs’ payroll for next season is looking like ~$60M. Their highest payroll ever was $144M in 2010 and last year it was $107M. Adding Hamels’ $22M takes their 2015 payroll to ~$82M, which would be their lowest since 2003.

rct
1 year 19 days ago

I do not understand this assessment. He’s making $22.5MM. Unless Scherzer and Lester sign for like $50MM a season, Hamels will still be above market value next year. It’s $22.5MM. He’s like the 5th highest paid pitcher in baseball. It’s a lot of money.

And even if it somehow becomes literally ‘below market value’, most teams still cannot afford him. ‘Below market value’ is a meaningless descriptor when attached to Cole Hamels to like 90% of teams.

NotCanon
1 year 19 days ago

Scherzer is not as good as Cole Hamels. Lester is nearly as good.

If both sign for $25MM over 6+1 years+option, you’re paying them a minimum of about $40MM more over the life of their contracts (maximum in the $85MM range), and you’re doing so for the privilege of playing them when they’re 36 or 37, instead of finishing up with Hamels when he’s 34/35.

“Below market value” is still important, because any team that can’t afford him also can’t afford Lester, Scherzer, Price or Shields. If the market is set in such a way that nobody can take those salaries, it isn’t somehow not the market just because it excludes them. It’s just that the market is high.

rct
1 year 19 days ago

Scherzer has more WAR over the last three years than Hamels, and his FIP is better over that stretch. He strikes out way more batters than Hamels with a similar walk rate and WHIP. He’s better than Hamels, and he’s younger with 600 fewer innings on his arm. I’ll grant you that Lester isn’t as good, but Scherzer is a much better investment than Hamels over the next 5 years.

But nevertheless, my point still stands. ‘Below market value’ isn’t a good descriptor when you’re dealing with numbers as high as Hamels because that’s not what you’re signing him (or trading for him) for. Just because some other team on the cusp gives Lester and Scherzer huge deals doesn’t magically make paying for 34 and 35 year old Hamels ‘below market’ because of the disparity of the buyer’s market. A team that can barely afford a top-tier pitcher can’t simultaneously afford to trade away their low cost assets. Nearly every team in baseball could afford to sign Lester or Scherzer if they also had contributing players at well below market value, ie prospects/pre-Arb guys. But they cannot afford a contract that size (ie Hamels’s) if they also have to trade those players away.

NotCanon
1 year 19 days ago

You’re using a 3-year average for Scherzer that is greatly affected by a single good year, and a 3-year average for Hamels that is greatly affected by a single poor (for him) year.

Scherzer had a very good 2013. That’s also his only very good year. It’s also the only year he’s been better than Hamels (fWAR indicates his 2011 was 0.2 points higher, but the other aggregated stats – including bWAR and WHIP and xFIP – don’t agree), and was fueled by an unsustainably low BABIP (.259). If Hamels hadn’t missed a month’s worth of starts this year their 3-year fWAR would be approximately even.

Scherzer is literally 5 months younger than Hamels, and part of the reason he has fewer IP is because he averages fewer IP/start than Hamels (207 IP/162’s his career average, and it would be under 200 if not for 2013).

So, no, I don’t think that Scherzer is a “much better investment than Hamels over the next 5 years.” You’re also making a fairly drastic assumption that Scherzer can be had for only a 5-year commitment.

rct
1 year 19 days ago

For the record, Scherzer is 7 months younger, not 5. Personally, I don’t think that’s too much of a difference, which is why I mentioned the huge (like three season’s worth) disparity of innings. I don’t care how it got reached. Hamels has 600 more innings (like 50% more than Scherzer) on his arm. But also: over the last three years, Hamels averages 6.82 innings/start, Scherzer is at 6.38. So it’s a one out per start. Not a big difference.

And you’re wrong about Scherzer only having one good year. Last three year FIPs: 3.27, 2.74, 3.01. Hamels: 3.30, 3.26, 2.85. Scherzer’s is better. And again: his K rate is much higher with a similar walk rate and WHIP. Also: his WAR is higher than Hamels’s this season. His BABIP has normalized after last year’s fluke and he’s still great.

And I’m not making any assumption about getting Scherzer for 5 years. I picked 5 years because that’s essentially what’s left on Hamels’s contract. Factor in that Hamels is going to cost you several prospects in addition to his salary, and Scherzer is hands-down a better investment than Hamels.

NotCanon
1 year 19 days ago

I realize you “don’t care how it got reached,” but that’s because you’re not paying the dude’s salary. Zach Greinke had an awe-inspiring 2009. It made his 2009-2011 numbers look quite good. That doesn’t change the fact that he had a pretty poor 2010 (100 ERA+, so literally league average), and a forgettable 2011 (103 ERA+, almost ditto).

3-year samples are nice, but unless there’s consistency between those years it’s not a good barometer for future results. The 5-year sample shows that Scherzer is nowhere near as good as his 2013 (his WHIP alone dropped 0.330 points under the average he’d set in his first 4 years as a starter, and .304 points under his 2012). This year he’s looking good, but not great, and his FIP and xFIP are both higher than Hamels’ this year (which, as you pointed out, is due in part to his BABIP normalization).

Scherzer’s WAR is higher this season because Hamels has 3 fewer starts, and WAR is a counting stat. Scherzer’s HR/FB is higher, his GB% is lower (as is his LoB%), his K/9 is higher but his BAA is .020 points higher, and his ERA- (which adjusts for league and park) is 15 points higher. Put Hamels in Comerica Park and he’d likely outperform Scherzer every year other than 2013 and 2009 (the only years his ERA- were higher than Scherzer’s).

NotCanon
1 year 19 days ago

As for the market, yes, in fact, that is exactly what it does. There are teams that cannot afford to buy players at market rate. The market is set by what teams will pay, not what the projected $$$/FA WAR value is on Fangraphs. If there are teams “willing to overpay” for Scherzer and Lester, that sets the market for near-top-flight pitching. Other top-flight pitchers will see that, and hold out for higher salary options.

They probably won’t sign a ton of 1-year deals “to build value” either, because they risk getting nailed to QOs for the rest of their careers. If that means that only the richest teams will be able to afford top-flight FA pitchers… Well, that’s already the case, so I don’t know what you’re arguing here.

rct
1 year 19 days ago

I don’t know what you’re arguing here, either. Two pitchers signing mega deals this offseason will not magically make $22.5MM pitcher Cole Hamels ‘below market value’, because, again, ‘below market value’ is an irrelevant descriptor at a price like that. For long term deals, you’re essentially paying huge money for the first few years. You know you’re overpaying. ‘Market value’ only puts you in the ballpark when the salaries are that high. Saying his contract will be ‘below market value’ in 4-5 years (which is a huge assumption; you’re assuming both that he’ll be effective and that salaries will jump to the point where $22.5MM is below what he’s actually worth) isn’t why you’d be trading for him.

Jon
1 year 19 days ago

Jason Hammel? He has no control past this year. And the fact that he was a key to getting the deal done(the idea was it took one of the arms off the market) and subsequently has been so awful in Oakland, that is starting to make the deal look bad for the As. He won’t even make the post season rotation.

johansantana15
1 year 19 days ago

Insane? .303/.373/.562/9HR/4SB is great but hardly insane. Kris Bryant’s numbers, on the other hand, are legitimately insane.

Karkat
1 year 19 days ago

This should give them a good excuse to talk about potential offseason trades, actually.

Bob
1 year 19 days ago

Phillies are a market that could handle the Castro contract, so that could be something talked about in the Winter. But prospects will have to come with Castro.

Tyler
1 year 19 days ago

Keep dreaming my dear friend. The Cubs WILL NOT part with Starlin Castro.

Jeff Miller
1 year 19 days ago

Not sure the Phillies would really want Castro. He’s a nice player, but doesn’t strike me as a building block or a player who should be a centerpiece for an ace in his prime.

NotCanon
1 year 19 days ago

Not to mention that the Phillies are pretty heavy on SS prospects at this point, and Rollins will be around for at least another year (I’m thinking he nets a pillow contract after his current one too, unless he has another 2013-like season next year).

sflomenb
1 year 19 days ago

I don’t want him near the Phillies

Bob
1 year 19 days ago

Phillies were pretty hot on Soler when he was coming out of Cuba. He could be the center piece. But I imagine its going to be many pieces not 1 if they do decide to move Hamels now and not in the Winter with more suitors.

FOmeOLS
1 year 19 days ago

If they don’t want to trade him, then why bother putting him on waivers in the first place?

Bob
1 year 19 days ago

cause everyone is put on waivers basically

Phillyfan425
1 year 19 days ago

Gauge interest in the offseason.

And like Bob said, almost everyone goes on waivers (it’s only a “big deal” for bad teams putting good-decent players on).

Lefty_Orioles_Fan
Lefty_Orioles_Fan
1 year 19 days ago

Because Ruby is Groovy!

Bob George
1 year 19 days ago

There is no way a deal is going to be made unless the Phillies really want to dump salary. The Cubs aren’t going to deal top prospects AND take on $100 mil., at least I think they would be foolish to do so. Now if I’m the Phillies and someone just gave me the chance to dump $100+ mil in salary for seasons 31-34/35 of a pitcher, I’m very intrigued about taking the best deal I can get, even if there are not top prospects in it.

Gersh
Gersh
1 year 19 days ago

From the Phillies stand point you cannot give Hamels up when hes the only piece on a team that has to rebuild that is worth something.

Bob George
1 year 19 days ago

Dumping salary has it’s own value too. Although this is the Phillies, and they’re rolling in TV revenue and not on a budget.

JoeyBats13
1 year 19 days ago

Utley?

Gersh
Gersh
1 year 19 days ago

He has 10-5 rights he can’t be traded, and i mean people that are worth top prospects.

JoeyBats13
1 year 19 days ago

Ahhh good to know. I think he could fetch a decent return though if he does agree to be traded.

sflomenb
1 year 19 days ago

Hamels is not going to be on the team when it’s good again, he has absolutely no use here

Gersh
Gersh
1 year 19 days ago

So, get rid of him for nothing? Good idea!

Shane Flannagan
1 year 19 days ago

I would trade ya Almora and another piece for Hamels right now. So wouldnt get nothing

Gersh
Gersh
1 year 19 days ago

I’m confident there will be better offers in the winter.

Bob
1 year 19 days ago

im sure the Dodgers would give Joc Pederson alone for Hamels. Pederson is a much superior hitter than Almora.

Shane Flannagan
1 year 19 days ago

I bet they wouldnt since they wouldnt for Price who is better then Hamels

Phillyfan425
1 year 19 days ago

I’m tired of seeing this, so let’s put this fallacy to bed.

Pitcher A:
this year – 2.42 ERA, 2.86 FIP, 1.107 WHIP, 154 ERA+
last 3 years – 3.11 ERA, 3.18 FIP, 1.114 WHIP, 124 ERA+
last 5 years – 3.03 ERA, 3.25 FIP, 1.111 WHIP, 128 ERA +

Pitcher B:
this year – 3.11 ERA, 2.98 FIP, 1.043 WHIP, 123 ERA+
last 3 years – 2.98 ERA, 3.02 FIP, 1.081 WHIP, 129 ERA+
last 5 years – 3.04 ERA, 3.17 FIP, 1.117 WHIP, 126 ERA+

Over the long haul, they are essentially the same pitcher. Over the last 3 years, Pitcher B has a slight edge. And this year, Pitcher A has the edge.
I know there are other measures to use, but at this current hour, I don’t really feel like doing them. By the way, Pitcher A is Hamels, B is Price.

NotCanon
1 year 19 days ago

The years of control were also important.

TommyC
1 year 19 days ago

They could get more than that in the Winter. Cubs are a bad trade partner. Phillies need to pair up with a contender who can afford to shed top specs for an immediate impact star.

sflomenb
1 year 19 days ago

Not for nothing obviously… he’s worth something so he has to be traded for something, which isn’t farfetched.

Shane Flannagan
1 year 19 days ago

I be willing to give up Almora and Vogelbach and take on most (not all but most) of salary for Hamels. Phillies dont get one of our top 5 guys, but Almora is still a top 50 prospect and Vogelbach is one of the best first basemen in the minors and big time bat

Bob
1 year 19 days ago

Vogelbach is not an NL player

Shane Flannagan
1 year 19 days ago

Ok but he still is good and the Phillies dont think he can stick at first, then they can always flip him. But he’s still a good prospect.

Bob
1 year 19 days ago

theres not much of a market for a player whose been deemed a DH since age 13. You think if he took anything seriously he would lose weight.

Shane Flannagan
1 year 19 days ago

He has lost weight

Bob
1 year 19 days ago

and he still cant play first base

Shane Flannagan
1 year 19 days ago

Have you ever seen him play actually?

Chris Adams
1 year 19 days ago

I’m willing to bet he hasn’t. Vog’s is rather deceiving with his weight. He is pretty fast and flexible to be as big as he is.

Dakota
1 year 19 days ago

Plus there still stands a good chance the NL makes the switch to a DH

Ray Ray
1 year 19 days ago

Hopefully not.

Chris Adams
1 year 19 days ago

Actually he has lost quite a bit of weight this yea r

cubs7691
1 year 19 days ago

Neither is Ryan Howard

Will Bruce
1 year 19 days ago

I’d be more than comfortable with giving up Almora and Edwards as the centerpieces and adding a couple more players to the deal.

Bob
1 year 19 days ago

why would they dump? They would just hold on and pay until someone deems it valuable. Hes a lefty who pitches off a 70 grade change up. Its not like investing in a power arm waiting to lose velocity.

Bob George
1 year 19 days ago

Just because someone was put on waivers and claimed doesn’t mean his team has any interest in trading him. All of this speculation could be for nothing. Most teams put virtually their entire rosters on waivers to A) hide whom they are willing to deal, and B) have more options in trade talks.

Dakota
1 year 19 days ago

Yeah but maybe the fact that Philly tried trading him a few weeks ago means they have interest in trading him

start_wearing_purple
start_wearing_purple
1 year 19 days ago

I tend to figure all this is is a chance for the Phillies to get an idea of what a team with a genuine want of Hamels will offer so they know what the general market consensus will be in the offseason.

Catztradamus
1 year 19 days ago

The waiver part is not as big a deal as you’d think. Any player the cubs want to include only has to get past Colorado and Arizona and anyone the phillies want to get through only has to get past Colorado. Not very limiting. Colorado wouldn’t claim Castro. Arizona might but not likely. Baez probably doesn’t clear though unless the phillies and cubs work out a gentlemens agreement with Arizona and Colorado.

Bob
1 year 19 days ago

Ill go out on a limb and assume it wouldnt involve Baez. It more than likely would be Soler and Castro (if he snuck through)

vtadave
1 year 19 days ago

Soler and Castro would never make it through waivers.

cubs7691
1 year 19 days ago

No thank you

Shane Flannagan
1 year 19 days ago

Its not going to happen, but what if the Cubs could get him for Almora has the top prosepct in the deal, you still wouldn’t want to do it?

cubs7691
1 year 19 days ago

Depends on what else is inside that package. If I were Jed no way I would do it unless Ruben wants to open up his pocket book.

Shane Flannagan
1 year 19 days ago

I give up Almora and Vogelbach for him. Both become Phillies top 6 prospects easily.

cubs7691
1 year 19 days ago

Cubs eating all of the contract?

Shane Flannagan
1 year 19 days ago

Most of it ya. I mean if the Cubs wanted Phillies to pay like half of it then they will have to trade someone like Russell. Just pay most of it

CityCub219
1 year 19 days ago

Cubs wouldn’t take on all of his contract for Almora/Vogelbach. The Phils would have to eat a chunk bigger than JedStein does.

Shane Flannagan
1 year 19 days ago

In a perfect world, Cubs rather not give up anything and just take his contract. But yes Cubs are ready to spend money and if it meant not giving up Castro,Baez,Russell, or Soler, Then I eat all the contract

cubs7691
1 year 19 days ago

Can we somehow include Edlose Jackson into that package?

Bob
1 year 19 days ago

im guessing Cubs fans prefer 8 years 180 million for Lester?

Shane Flannagan
1 year 19 days ago

haha really? you really think thats what the Cubs would offer and some other team would? wow

Bob
1 year 19 days ago

hes the top LHP on the market. I suggest you go look back at the recent lhp signings and then also look at the growth of contracts given in years and money each season.

Jon
1 year 19 days ago

Yes. Because he will cost no prospects

Jeff Miller
1 year 19 days ago

Honestly, they could probably acquire Hamels and sign Lester, though 8/$180M is steep.

Bob
1 year 19 days ago

a 5 win second baseman got 10 years 200 million last year

Jeff Miller
1 year 19 days ago

Also a terrible deal.

Bob
1 year 19 days ago

and the Lester deal will be terrible as will 80 percent of the deals signed this coming winter. Free Agency is not a way to build a team anymore.

Jeff Miller
1 year 19 days ago

Kinda depends on how it’s framed. I don’t understand why teams don’t front load deals. Pay top dollar for the prime years instead of $30M at age 40.

Sky14
1 year 19 days ago

Time value of money. Better spend it later than now.

Jeff Miller
1 year 19 days ago

I’d rather spend $30M for years 1-5 and $10M for years 6-8 on that proposed 8/$180M for Lester. Pay extra for those prime years and give yourself some flexibility down the road if he breaks down. Much easier to buy him out at $30M than at $70M.

NotCanon
1 year 19 days ago

Right, but a dollar in 10 years is worth less than a dollar today due to inflation and potential interest earned. Inflation isn’t hugely noticeable down at the single dollar level over such a short period, but when you’re talking tens of millions it definitely is.

It has nothing to do with the economics of baseball talent, and everything to do with the economics of economics.

Sky14
1 year 19 days ago

Well that is where the time value of money comes into play, you are losing potential money spending it now rather than later. The money not spent now has earnings potential, such as gaining interest, while you still reap the benefits of Lester(or other players). This makes $30 million on year one much more costly (loss of potential earnings) than $30 million on year 8 and why most owners would prefer back-loaded contracts.

Phillyfan425
1 year 19 days ago

He also went to a team desperate to “show” they were trying to make an impact with bats (since they have the pitching).

Phillyfan425
1 year 19 days ago

Fewer years, higher AAV. I’d say 6 years, $140 M is more realistic.

Bob
1 year 19 days ago

He will ask for the Kershaw contract. Teams will bite just below. Too much money to be spent.

Shane Flannagan
1 year 19 days ago

There’s no way Lester gets that, no way. He will get 5 years for 110-120 tops

Phillyfan425
1 year 19 days ago

If he does well in the playoffs, I can see it pushing a little higher (because teams pay for playoff performance like it’s predictive).

Shane Flannagan
1 year 19 days ago

True, but teams just arent giving pitchers now days (unless you are someone like Kershaw) more then 5 year deals or so

Phillyfan425
1 year 19 days ago

He’ll probably go in with comps as Hamels and Greinke (they got 7 and 6 years respectively). Most likely point toward his stellar post-season record, and the fact that he’s coming off his best season in his career. I think teams will start at 5 years, $120 M, he’ll start around 7 years, $150 M, and they’ll meet around what I said – 6 year (maybe a little under on money, I just picked a nice round number).

Jeff Miller
1 year 19 days ago

For high-end pitching they are. Greinke got 6, Hamels got 6, Cain got 8, Tanaka got 7 and Scherzer turned down 6. Verlander and Hernandez signed monster extensions as well. Scherzer and Lester will get monster deals and Shields will get a high AAV, but not as many years since he’ll be 33. Price will also get a monster deal.

Phillyfan425
1 year 19 days ago

His age will play a big factor – he might get some options in there to kick it up to the level you say – but I can’t imagine anyone giving him 8 year, $180 M straight up.

Robbieb7
1 year 19 days ago

Lester will get 6-7 years, same with Scherzer

Blackhawk
1 year 19 days ago

Do it, Cubs! You’ve got Castro and/or Baez at short for the next ten years. Worst-case scenario…Russell is the next Shawon Dunston.

Shane Flannagan
1 year 19 days ago

Sorry, not giving up any of those 3 or Bryant and Soler.

Blackhawk
1 year 19 days ago

No, I meant keep Castro or Baez and give the Phillies Russell. Sorry

CityCub219
1 year 19 days ago

Yeah right. Russell will force one of them to move. And one of them already has changed positions so

cubs7691
1 year 19 days ago

And if that fails we can always use an outfielder. Soler, Alcantara, Russel. Until Almora arrives

Shane Flannagan
1 year 19 days ago

I know, I dont want to give up Russell either lol. Those 5 I mentioned are all no’s and should be with the team next season at some point

Ray Ray
1 year 19 days ago

So you expect to get a top 5 LH pitcher for table scraps?

Jamesonhendry
1 year 19 days ago

Haven’t met RAJ huh.

Joe
1 year 19 days ago

Wow, Ruben Amaro, the worst GM in baseball, just decided to start selling, but he sold the wrong piece! C’mon Ruben.

Gersh
Gersh
1 year 19 days ago

I don’t think it needs to be said in every article about the Phillies that he is the worst GM, we all already know that.

Phillyfan425
1 year 19 days ago

He hasn’t sold anything (unless you are counting ole’ Rubber Toe).

Joe
1 year 19 days ago

I realize now that he hasn’t traded him (yet). My understanding of a claim being awarded is that the claiming team is given the player. Kind of like how the Giants got Cody Ross in 2010.

Shane Flannagan
1 year 19 days ago

No, Phillies can pull him back and thats whats going to happen most likely

Joe
1 year 19 days ago

Ya, the Cubbies should at least entertain an offer including one of their infielders and one of their outifielders, and then pay the whole contract so Amaro gets more money off the payroll. I don’t think anything will happen though.

Phillyfan425
1 year 19 days ago

Nope. It just means the Cubs are the team that claimed him. Phillies will either work out deal (unlikely) or pull him back and not put him on waivers again this year (much, much, much more likely).

Tempguy
1 year 19 days ago

If I was a Phillies fan, I would not want RAJ trading their most valuable asset.

timpa
1 year 19 days ago

Ed Wade made his best trade before he got kicked out of Houston… of course that was at the expense of RAJ.

Jaysfan1994
1 year 19 days ago

I’m wondering if he could top the “blockbuster” of prospects it took to get 2 years worth of Hunter Pence.

Joe
1 year 19 days ago

It was techinically only 1 full season, as they acquired him at the 2011 deadline and then traded him at the 2012 deadline.

Jaysfan1994
1 year 19 days ago

I’m talking about the trade that sent him to San Fransisco for a bag of balls.

Ray Ray
1 year 19 days ago

The worst GM in baseball? I think the Dan O’Dowd/Bill Geavitt combo begs to disagree.

Joe
1 year 19 days ago

No, Ruben is definitely the worst. He had no excuse not to trade Marlon Byrd, Jonathan Papelbon, Antonio Bastardo, and others at the deadline, even if he had to kick in some cash. For whatever reason, he brings the same old players back on terrible contracts, and signs other old players to terrible contracts as well.

Ray Ray
1 year 19 days ago

Okay, but the Rockies had no excuse not to trade Jorge de la Rosa, Matt Belisle, LaTroy Hawkins, Drew Stubbs (or any of the other 6 outfielders on the big league club). They are also hoping the 41 year old Hawkins is going to be a big part of the next winning Rockies team (said publicly). They are also looking to resign Michael Cuddyer despite not needing him anywhere on the roster, now or in the future. Not to mention the fact that they passed on a free Jacob Turner claim in favor of guys like Brooks Brown and Yohan Flande. My final note, the Phillies All Star middle infielder refuses to waive his no-trade clause because he doesn’t want to leave the team, while the Rockies All Star middle infielder is basically begging for a trade to New York or any other franchise that wants to win. Your move, Ruben.

Joe
1 year 18 days ago

But the Rockies have the intent to resign De La Rosa, Belisle, and Hawkins (he has an option for next season I think), and with their players already, a couple of good offseason moves could help them tremendously. The Phillies, however, aren’t a couple of moves away from competing, they are several moves. The Rockies are not.

Jamesonhendry
1 year 19 days ago

Hi guys I guess you don’t remember me.

TwitchWasHere
1 year 19 days ago

Nah, Hendry wasn’t *good*, but still made the team better & had a pretty successful stretch from 2003-08. Since RAJ took over, the Phillies have slid from perennial contender to a tie for 6th with Table Time and Allied Biscuit.

TheoHoyer
1 year 19 days ago

ITT: I’m a Cubs fan, but most of you Cubs fan overvalue prospects and make the entire Cubs fanbase look stupid.

Douglas Rau
1 year 19 days ago

From what we’ve heard about Ruben Amaro Jr., I’m shocked he’s not asking for Castro (with the Cubs picking up ALL of his contract, of course) AND Javier Baez AND Addison Russell AND anyone else the Cubs have of value in their minor league system. If Amaro Jr. thinks Marlon Byrd is worth Aaron Judge, who will be a better player than Byrd by 2016, I can’t imagine what he’s asking for Hamels.

Jaysfan1994
1 year 19 days ago

Castro would have to pass through trade waivers in order to be traded, it’d be foolish demanding major league talent on the 40-man roster during the August Trade Waivers, every other GM in the league would block that trade by claiming that player.

Shane Flannagan
1 year 19 days ago

He’s being sarcastic lol

Douglas Rau
1 year 19 days ago

Slightly but Amaro would ask for the sun, the moon and the stars.

Shane Flannagan
1 year 19 days ago

Ya I know, I cant believe that they didnt at least trade Byrd, Burnett, Papelbon.

Jeff Miller
1 year 19 days ago

Burnett and Papelbon were understandable given their contracts ($13M for Papelbon and very likely $12.75M for Burnett). Byrd is worth his contract, but that very attainable $8M option for his age 39/40 season was a major hurdle. Also didn’t help that Amaro doesn’t appear to have been a willing negotiator.

Shane Flannagan
1 year 19 days ago

They could have trade those guys eating some of the money but at least they get a couple good young prospects

Jeff Miller
1 year 19 days ago

Agreed, but with Papelbon having a $13M option for 2016 and Burnett undecided on his future beyond this year, it’s difficult to factor in how much money to eat and what the return should be depending on how much money is eaten.

They probably could’ve worked it, but it sounds like Ruben just wanted what he wanted and if he didn’t get it then no deal. For a guy like Hamels that makes sense, you don’t budge much on your demands for an ace with 4+ years of control. But with role players you gotta be flexible.

Douglas Rau
1 year 19 days ago

I was just making a point about Amaro ridiculous demands.

Jaysfan1994
1 year 19 days ago

Well, he is one to make ridiculous demands. He’s also one that when forced to make a trade such as the Hunter Pence one, that’s sold on a very little return.

Bob
1 year 19 days ago

I think the Cubs would love to dump the Castro contract and spend that money on pitching.

Tempguy
1 year 19 days ago

The Castro contract is team friendly.

Bob
1 year 19 days ago

last season he was replacement level and right now he might be a 3 win shortstop. Hes shown very little growth. With 4 players who could make the league min and play a superior short stop just sitting there, I dont consider it team friendly. When he is forced to play LF, the bat isnt going to play. Extending Castro and not trading him has been the Cubs only failure IMO since the new FO tenure.

Tempguy
1 year 19 days ago

I doubt he will be forced into left, were you not just saying all prospects don’t work out? Why dump a 3 WAR shortstop when he is the only proven commodity?

Bob
1 year 19 days ago

as loaded as the cubs are in the farm, there is still only CJ Edwards who ranks as a top 100 prospect pitcher. Someones got to throw the ball.

Tempguy
1 year 19 days ago

Jake Arrieta is the only TOR arm (#2 IMO), true. We don’t lack candidates for 4-5 spots though. Makes more sense to try and acquire a #1 arm in Free Agency.

Bob
1 year 19 days ago

or get Cole Hamels for 4 years for Soler and some pieces

Tempguy
1 year 19 days ago

If Soler, Edwards + some guys like Villanueva and Vogelbach got it done I would pull the trigger. Philly wants more than that, probably Russell+Soler+ others, which wouldn’t make sense for the Cubs at this time.

jb226
1 year 19 days ago

I wouldn’t trade Soler. Guy’s a beast. I think he ends up being a better player than Baez when all is said and done.

Tempguy
1 year 19 days ago

Have to trade quality to get quality, Cubs need a #1 and Hamels would fill that. No guarantees we can sign Lester.

Jeff Miller
1 year 19 days ago

Why not add both? Lester doesn’t have compensation attached and the Cubs have plenty of financial flexibility.

Tempguy
1 year 19 days ago

Oh I would definitely attempt to sign him, but there are no guarantees that he doesn’t just go back to Boston.

Jeff Miller
1 year 19 days ago

Given the Red Sox philosophy of high AAV and low years I’d be surprised if Lester returned. With no compensation attach I wouldn’t be surprised to see surprise teams in on Lester like the Padres, Diamondbacks and Astros. Won’t just be the big market teams.

Chris Adams
1 year 19 days ago

Agreed

Chris Adams
1 year 19 days ago

Absolutely not. I wouldn’t trade Soler straight up for Hamels

Chris Adams
1 year 19 days ago

Johnson, Edwards, Blackburn, Hendricks. The Cubs are not as strapped for pitching as most seem to think.

Cubstein
1 year 19 days ago

I recall Johnson being ranked. Tseng will likely be ranked this off season. We have Jake currently on the roster. Hendricks will fill in the back of the rotation nicely.

Shane Flannagan
1 year 19 days ago

Castro isnt going anywhere and his contract is not bad at all

Jamesonhendry
1 year 19 days ago

I’m going to give Olt an extension and throw 78 mil on him. Don’t worry guys Jim in on this. I like this Lake kid I think I’ll extend him as well and offer Edwin another 8 years deal. He’s a solid ace type pitcher we really need.

Chris Adams
1 year 19 days ago

I would say you would be absolutely wrong. The Cubs like Castro and he is on a team friendly deal. Theo has pretty much said, Castro isn’t going anywhere.

timpa
1 year 19 days ago

Marlon Byrd’s an old guy who also happened to be the premium righty power bat avail (20 HR’s) in an era where power is down.

Teams have given up valuable prospects for old players. Giants gave up Zack Wheeler for Beltran. Red Sox gave up a Jeff Bagwell at AA once upon a time for a reliever named Larry Andersen.

Aaron Judge is a college player who’s not yet gotten above High-A. He’s also 6 foot 7 with a very long swing. Let’s see how he does against better competition moving up against AA, then AAA, and finally MLB pitchers.

He could very well not even hit as many HR’s in his career as Byrd has so far this season.

Daniel Morairity
1 year 19 days ago

Wait ok so Hamels went to the cubs

Tempguy
1 year 19 days ago

No. Phillies will pull him off waivers.

Daniel Morairity
1 year 19 days ago

Oh ok I thought Hamels went the the cubs but now the phillies can get him back

Jamesonhendry
1 year 19 days ago

I will get this deal done. I will be trading every player in the Cubs farm for Hamels.

Chris Adams
1 year 19 days ago

Hahahahaa….no

Jamesonhendry
1 year 19 days ago

Yes the farm isn’t worth anything to us. I going to bank roll all our money on Shields in the off season. 210 mil over 3 years sounds good on aging Shields. Soriano was a crowning achievement and that’s what I’m going to do.

Cubstein
1 year 19 days ago

That really is you Hendry isn’t it.