Multiple contract-year hitters raked in the month of June. Edwin Encarnacion, Carlos Beltran, Kendrys Morales, Ian Desmond, Wilson Ramos, Michael Saunders, Luis Valbuena, Mark Trumbo, and Justin Turner came up big, and many more have showed well since the most recent installment of our Free Agent Power Rankings back on June 2. The starting pitching side was much lighter, with nice runs from Bud Norris and Doug Fister.
While no extensions were signed, there was still plenty of movement in the Power Rankings based on June events. Below, I’ve ranked the 2016-17 free agents by earning power. You can view the full list of free agents here.
1. Yoenis Cespedes. Cespedes remains on pace for his first 40 home run season, which should compel him to opt out of the remaining two years and $47.5MM on his contract with the Mets shortly after his 31st birthday in October. Cespedes will start in the outfield for the NL All-Star team, and he’s currently the only free agent I project to land a six-year deal well in excess of $100MM.
2. Jose Bautista. Bautista, 36 in October, suffered a toe injury in mid-June and won’t return until after the All-Star break. A four-year deal still seems plausible, with precedents such as Victor Martinez and Ben Zobrist. Still, the fourth year is not a lock for Bautista, who is on track for his worst season since becoming a full-time player with the Blue Jays.
3. Edwin Encarnacion. Bautista’s teammate had a much better month. Encarnacion smashed 11 home runs in June and has been named to the AL All-Star team. As he’s shown with mammoth months in years past, EE can go on a hot streak with the best of them. His free agent stock is suppressed for two reasons: he’ll turn 34 in January, and he’s probably limited to the American League as a primary designated hitter. Nonetheless, his contract projection is starting to approach that of Bautista: four years at a total of $80MM or more.
4. Josh Reddick. Reddick returned to Oakland’s lineup on June 28th after missing over a month with a fractured thumb. On June 26th, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reported that the A’s and Reddick “appear to be far apart” on a contract extension, and there are no indications of recent progress. Slusser reported a few days later that the Royals have interest in trading for Reddick, and Joe Stiglich of CSNBayArea.com has also linked the Giants to the right fielder. Five days ago, MLBTR’s Jeff Todd ranked Reddick as the No. 3 trade candidate in the game. So Reddick may be on the move this month, which could remove a qualifying offer from the equation this winter. While I have projected Reddick for a five-year deal previously, a safer call might be four years.
5. Kenley Jansen. Jansen’s excellence continues for the Dodgers, and he’s been awarded with his first career All-Star nod. The 28-year-old closer from Curaçao will look to shatter Jonathan Papelbon‘s record contract for a reliever. Papelbon signed a four-year, $50MM deal in November 2011, so we’re definitely due for a new precedent five years later. Jansen’s ceiling could be around five years and $70MM.
6. Ian Desmond. I wasn’t prepared to award Desmond a spot in our top ten last month, and he proceeded to put up monster numbers in June. Desmond is the current wins above replacement leader among projected free agents, at 3.9. He’s in the midst of the best offensive season of his career and has proven to be above average in both left and center field defensively for the Rangers. It’s been an extremely successful makeover for the former Nationals shortstop, who made the All-Star team for the second time in his career. Desmond, who turns 31 in September, seems a good bet for a four-year deal north of $60MM.
7. Aroldis Chapman. Chapman has been dominant in his 22 innings for the Yankees, dropping his walk rate well below his career norm in the small sample. He ranked seventh on Jeff Todd’s trade candidate list last week. The Yankees are below .500 and four games out in the Wild Card standings, and they have the rest of the month to decide whether to sell. Chapman currently sits below Jansen in terms of free-agent earning power because of his domestic violence incident last year.
8. Wilson Ramos. Ramos’ breakout season continued with a huge month of June, and he makes this list for the first time. The 28-year-old Nationals catcher, who is hitting .335/.390/.554, made the All-Star team for the first time in his career. A four-year deal is starting to look possible for Ramos, who will be a young free agent. Even after Francisco Cervelli‘s extension with the Pirates, this free agent class offers solid options at catcher with Ramos and fellow All-Star Matt Wieters.
9. Dexter Fowler. Fowler suffered a hamstring injury on June 18th and had been scuffling prior to that. He was voted onto the NL All-Star team, one of seven Cubs to make the roster. Fowler is hopeful he’ll be able to participate in the All-Star game next Tuesday. Looking at his free agent stock, two strong months won’t be enough for Fowler to lock in a four-year deal. A strong, healthy finish will be key, given Fowler’s injury history prior to 2015.
10. Mark Trumbo. We had many candidates for this spot, but Trumbo gets the nod for the second consecutive month. The 30-year-old right fielder/first baseman leads the American League with 24 home runs and has been named to his second career All-Star team. Barring injury, Trumbo should fly past his career high of 34 home runs, set in 2013 with the Angels. While he’s a one-dimensional player, a 40 home run season would be difficult to ignore in free agency.
Four players came close to landing a spot within the top ten: Matt Wieters, Michael Saunders, Carlos Gomez, and Justin Turner. All of them played well in June, and Gomez had his best month in a long time. A difficult month pushed the Mets’ Neil Walker off our list, while Rich Hill lost his spot due to a groin injury.
I thought Ramos was older than he was and never had a real reason to look up his age taking his position and age into consideration surprised he isn’t higher.
Regardless of who the closer is, plays for ur favorite team, ur the biggest homer of that said team etc.. Any GM that gives a closer 5/70m is not in touch with reality. Biggest position hit and miss from year to year it seems and one of those recent all the rage positions of fans and teams.. Meaning one of those analytical focused only GM’s is likely to do so.
You can turn that argument around pretty easily though. Because closers and relievers in general are so hit-or-miss, it might be more strategically sound to invest in one of the few relievers that can be depended on, such as a Jansen or a Chapman, rather than to invest in several players at a fraction of the cost, only a few of whom pan out.
You can’t depend on them though is his point Kimbrel was the best closer in baseball for 4 years now hes not. If you are spending that much money on a closer he can not regress at all and they all do eventually. If you project a RP 5 years you almost have to factor at least one down year, even Mariano Rivera had less then stellar years during his godly run.
Kimbrel is still a fantastic bullpen arm. He strikes out 2 batters an inning on average, and his ERA and other metrics have spiked because he can’t seem to compose himself when put into non-save situations. He remains an excellent pitcher bested by only the smallest handful of relievers in the game.
I don’t think giving Chapman a 5/$70MM is any more risky than your other big free agent contracts.
If he has a terrible first year, does it really look any worse than the David Price, Justin Upton, and Jason Heyward contracts?
I’d say most certainly yes since even if he is great 14 million for a single inning pitcher is quite a chunk of money. I bet quite a few teams probably would not even consider offering it even if he was guaranteed to perform.
The most valuable pitcher in the Yankees pen isn’t Chapman or Miller its Betances since he can pitch more than one inning and high leverage innings. That is really maybe the only RP in baseball worth that 14 million a year.
Chapman will get a bigger contract than Jansen…teams will forget about the Domestic violence and pay a premium for him.
Agreed. He’s superior talent-wise.
Chapman shouldn’t be sitting lower than Jansen. He served his suspension, there is no longer a risk of suspension for perspective teams. Sports teams clearly are willing to gamble on someone with a messy past, especially someone as talented as Chapman.
And fans are more than willing to give 2nd chances if the player is good enough.
Heck, Reyes isn’t good enough but he got a standing ovation yesterday. As did Ray Rice in Baltimore. Jason Kidd was loved in NJ after his DV past- even Hope Solo, Rhonda Rousey are heroes despite theirs (although I supposed people find it easier to forgive women). Silly sports fans…
I hope the Rangers resign Ian Desmond.
me too I think he has found a great home in Texas. I hope the new stadium plays like this one though.
Chapman will get at least 5/70.
This is the worst FA class in a while
hopefully we see some big trades!
And finally when some teams have some money to spend.
Beltran will get 2 years with a team option, whomever signs him will want him in their uniform if/when he hits 3,000.
I thought Beltran was planning to retire? That was the story in spring training at least.
He made a comment to the NYPost back around the GM Meetings that he’d retire if he didn’t feel he could play any longer at top level. If he finishes this season healthy there is no reason for him to not go for 3,000 and a shot at the hall of fame.
Beltran doesn’t need 3,000 hits to get into the Hall of Fame. He’s already the 4th best switch-hitter of all time (behind Mantle, Rose, and Chipper Jones and a little ahead of Murray). Although, it would still be nice for him to get there.
I think Beltran falls short of the HoF. Consider the cases for Jim Edmonds and Larry Walker and how little of the vote that they have garnered.
I think switch hitting + practically being Babe Ruth in the postseason play puts him ahead of both of those guys., Edmonds should be in the hall of fame though.
Yes he does, he has a borderline career WAR for the HOF. Look at what Kenny Lofton did in HOF voting – just 3% and fell off his 1st year – comparable career WAR.
Lofton fell off the ballot for obvious reasons he was a victim of circumstances and timing, most of the steroid users will be off the ballot before Beltran is even eligible.
Beltran’s post-season performance should get him (eventually) into the HoF. There are some guys who deserve to be in, many who don’t, and then guys like Beltran who at least have a solid case that can be argued.
I like the list, not the order necessarily, except for Fowler. If I had to choose between Fowler, Matt Wieters, Michael Saunders, Carlos Gomez, and Justin Turner – I would lean towards Wieters or Saunders….but I guess will depend on team needs.
I agree that the players are right, but the order is out of whack. The most glaring is Bautista at #2. He hasn’t looked good for most of the year. The you add age and injuries and he seems like a huge risk. I’d rather have EE over him. Same goes for Reddick and Desmond. I’d prefer both over Bautista.
Bautista came out flat and hasn’t done much to support a big contract. Someone will probably overpay him, but it’ll have to be an AL team.
The Braves are going to have a lot of money to spend this offseason. I hope they Don’t do another B.J Upton deal with Cespedes. Ces is much better, but I just don’t think the Braves specifically should do another huge contract again.
I wouldn’t mind seeing Braves sign Ramos to a 3/30 contract. I think Ramos could bridge well to Schwarz (or Herbert). Would be a good raise for him and if he continues hitting could set him up for decent contract afterwards. I hope Braves don’t overpay for Wieters.
I was thinking about the same thing with Ramos actually
That doesn’t get it done for Ramos, if you consider what the market has been for McCann and Russell Martin in recent years. Martin would be an interesting comp considering Ramos bring more defense to the table than McCann with less injuries, and Ramos is coming off an offensive-career year. It doesn’t hurt that he has helped preside over Scherzer, Stras, Zimmermann and more.
No no more old catchers on our team we need a young phenom catcher we have been hurt since bmac left us we should of never let him go who care about his low average he had pop
I’d worry a bit about Cespedes and being motivated to play after getting a LT deal. He didn’t show much motivation at times in Oakland and not any his short time in Boston. Just like BJ Upton did after signing his LT deal with Atlanta.. I always call this “The Candy Maldonado affect” after Maldonado would sit after getting a muti year deal many years ago, then show little to no effort until the deal was up.
Cespedes has a LOAD of talent, but maybe keeping him on a ST deal, or short as possible would be best. Understand it’s going to be impossible.. Someone am afraid will get a repeat of his Oakland performances and end up paying well over 125m for it.
For real, where did this idea that Cespedes wouldn’t be motivated to play if he got a long-term deal come from? It doesn’t much matter anyway, he’s getting his 9-figure deal this offseason.
Ces has proven he can deliver. I’m not sure where this implied laziness is coming from. He may do some things that looking like “hot dogging”, but I think that is a mix of his personality and culture. His numbers since joining the Mets (1yr worth) are MVP-level. Someone is paying at least 5 years and $130m+, minimum. He could get a lot more.
I wish the Mets could get him to sign an extension, but short of some magical run where he tells his agent to get something done…he’ll be on the FA market and will probably go to the highest-bidder, which I can’t begrudge bc this is his livelihood and it is a business.
EE will get around 5/125
While it is universally known that this is a weak FA class, the top is still decent. As a Braves fan, I would like one of Jansen or Chapman. Ramos and Desmond would be good pickups as well. Desmond could be a better version of Zobrist….could play 2B, SS, 3B, or the outfield for you. This would also keep most of the farm intact but I wouldnt mind trading a couple prospects for a hitter and/or another good established pitcher. Still think Atlanta and Colorado could work something out for Arenado if they were willing to trade him for young pitching.
No matter how much we wish for it, there’s no way the Rockies trade Arenado for Braves pitching.
As a Braves fan, please stop degrading our fan base by these silly trade ideas. If it involves Trout, Arenado, Goldschmidt, Kershaw or Harper, it is silly.
I think desmond will sign with a team that is closer to winning than the braves. Are the Braves really going to contend in 2017? I honestly thing it will be 18′ or 19′ before they are ready. I think Ian goes where he can win next year. I don’t even think we will resign him.
Agreed. But I wonder if TEX wants to pay the man. I could see why they would want to, but I would think they have his replacement already. Leaving Brinson down another year seems a waste — ATL would be happy to take him off your hands.
ATL will be an enticing proposition for some free agents: money (finally), new park, new community with presumed fans (…), young controllable team, rich winning history, etc.
As a Braves fan, Desmond would be a great opportunity to get a mid-order guy to put in your corner OF, plus having the ability to play the IF and CF is something ATL FO loves. However, ATL does not want to their first big contract to be the wrong move and hamper them, so I can imagine them being too gun shy to be able to compete with TEX and other teams.
You seriously don’t think Colorado would listen if we offered Sims, Touki, Soroka, & Riley? You’re crazy if Colorado wouldn’t listen to that offer
I think you’re crazy if you think Colorado wouldn’t listen to ATL if we offered Touki, Sims, Riley, & Soroka
Where would he play? The outfield is full and he ain’t playing at shortstop we don’t need Ian Desmond we have youth coming up I would mind a 3rd baseman out of free agency maybe Jose or Edwin for a few seasons
I would prefer the braves to stay far away from Chapman and Jensen. We are not ready to add a final piece like a lockdown closer. In addition, as someone already stated, closers are the most risky long term deals. I would hope the Braves FO feels the same way, seeing as they traded the best closer ever to grace the Atl. We have lots of young talented arms in the minors that can possibly turn into a good closer without breaking the bank. Now, with that said, I don’t think we have a Chapman in the making but who does? In summation, I think we need to find our closer in house, plus we can’t afford to, not with as many holes as we have.
I say go after Ramos, he is a good catcher who has finally figured some things out at the plate. He is 28, give him a 4 yr deal and that can bridge the gap to Schwartz or whoever they pick next year. Or maybe by then our top international C prospect we just signed could be close. Or perhaps one of our young guys already in the minors figures things out by then.
Then I say go after Desmond, (which I wanted them to do this past offseason), if his price tag is not too high. He seems like a candidate to get a BIG contract with this weak FA class. If I could afford it, he’d be a Brave next year. But something tells me Texas will try to lock him up, hopefully for our sake, they won’t.
Because a lineup with those two helps out immediately:
2017 lineup
Mallex Lf
Swanson Ss
Freeman 1B
Desmond 3B
Ramos C
Inciarte Cf
Albies 2B
Markakis Rf
It would be an interesting lineup. Not a lot of power but solid. Definitely better than this year.
Now all that could change if they could trade Kakes and Viz for something of use out there. But I’d rather keep Nick than just give him away, same for Viz. And I’m All in on keeping Teheran, unless we are seriously overwhelmed, seriously. He can headline our young staff for the next 4 years.
2017 Rotation:
Teheran
Wisler
Folty
Gant
Jenkins/Blair/Perez
Waiting list: Newcomb, Ellis, Sims, or whoever is ready.
It will be a very young staff with lots of ups and downs for sure. But we have a WHOLE lot more on the way after that, e.g. Allard, Fried, Sanchez, Soroka, Wentz, Anderson, Mueller. Lots to like about all the possibilities.
I think some at least of what you said is logical. I could see the braves having interest in Desmond and Ramos. But I’m not sure how long they’d last in a bidding war.
If Ramos goes out of their price range it is possible they’d look at Castro or Wieters (but I’d think he will be too high priced).
If Desmond is proved not feasible (or the braves are someway surprisingly sold on Rio Ruiz) then Valbuena, Walker or Prado might be options. I’d actually think Prado is the most logical because of his versatility and I’d think that the braves would trust him as a mentor figure for their young infielders.
I think the Braves trade for Headley with the Yankees eating a sizable portion of his contract. He will be signed for 2 more years so he wouldn’t be blocking Ruiz and I feel he is a change of scenery type guy.
Sign Wieters he is a local boy and seems to be back from injury.
If Gio Gonzalez option is not picked up make a run at him if not than a Scott Kazmir to have a veteran to go with the young guys.
1. Inciarte CF
2. Swanson SS
3. Freeman 1B
4. Wieters C
5. Markakis RF
6. Headley 3B
7. Jace 2B (til Albies is ready after super 2)
8. SP
9. Mallex
Bench
C Flowers
Inf Beckham/Jace
Inf Chase
Inf Adonis
OF Frenchy
Rotation
1. Teheran
2. Gio/Kazmir (min commitment until Newcomb)
3. Wisler
4. Folty
5. Blair
Bullpen
1. Vizcaino cl
2. Withrow RH
3. Krol LH
3. Jenkins RH
4. Hunter LH
5. Shae Simmons RH
6. Paco LH
7. ManBan long reliever
I like it expect kazmir bio or headly I do think we should sign weiters
@Bravesfan2017, I like the way you think. One thing I will say is if Cabrera could slim down his walks, he could have a Chapman feel to him for sure, kid is still learning. As mentioned above, I like Ramos and good call on Desmond, Prado has been my 1st choice all along. One thing I just thought, what kind of prospect package do you think Beane would want for Valencia? 26 year old, has some pop and hits with average. One more year of arbitration and could lock him up for another 4 years. Just a thought.
I’d be happy if the Braves signed Prado to 2-3 years. Good utility for them and Francoeur for another year. I’d like to see them sit pretty tight otherwise because losing there 2nd draft choice would be tough knowing how high it would be. I say don’t touch Desmond (could easily be another Uggla contract). I like Ramos but think he’ll require more than 3 years at his age, probably will ask for 5-6 at least if he continues the hot hitting. Sign Jason Castro to platoon with Flowers. Don’t touch the ugly “one good year” Headley contract (Ruiz could play as good as Headley and he isn’t even the long term solution) and Wieters would be a drastic overpay for someone who has never reached his potential and is often injured.
Agreed to all of the above sir, only thing with Ramos is he will either cash I. Big like you said or take the 2-3 year contract to prove his value and cash in with an AL team for one last huge contract at age 32. But that is just a guess. Wieters will be an overpay in my opinion as well. There is a reason Os gave him a QO and not a long term. Should be an interesting trade deadline and offseason for Braves Country.
Gogerty, not sure where you saw that Valencia was 26 but he’s actually 31. He’s no doubt a good player, but I’m not sure he really fits the Braves organizational plan at this stage
Haha @aff10, absolutely missed that one. That was my idiot moment, he is jersey number 26.
Guess u don’t remember at how bad Ian’s defense is
IMO the Orioles will also be a team competing for Ramos. They’ll slap the QO on Wieters to offset the loss of the draft pick by signing Ramos.
Ramos is not quite as good defensively as Wieters but he’s decent. And the bat is better despite playing in a park rated as neutral. In Baltimore he could put up some very solid numbers.
Unfortunately, signing Ramos would almost certainly mean the loss of Trumbo, who would’ve been primarily a DH with the departure of Alvarez. But they could offset that loss partially by going after Reddick. Reddick would bring a superior defensive glove to RF compared to any corner OF the Orioles currently have. He has decent power and a move to the AL East with so many hitter-friendly parks would certainly boost his numbers. Again, by slapping Trumbo with a QO they could regain the pick lost by signing Reddick.
Saunders is also another possible replacement for Trumbo if the latter walks. But he carries a lot of risk given his injury history so the Orioles, who have to be careful with contracts., will probably be reluctant to sign him.
Should have an honorable mention for the top FA starting pitcher as #11… whoever that is is going to get bid up.