Odds & Ends: Crawford, Yankees, Angels, Loux
Wednesday night links, as Daniel Hudson attempts to keep his NL ERA under 2.00….
- David Ortiz tells Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports that he thinks Carl Crawford will sign with the Yankees or Angels this winter.
- Joe Girardi doesn't expect Alfredo Aceves or Damaso Marte to be back with the Yankees in 2010, tweets MLB.com's Bryan Hoch.
- The chances of lifetime Angel Scot Shields returning to the club's bullpen next season are "less than remote," says Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times. Whether Scott Kazmir will be a part of the Angels' rotation also remains to be seen, DiGiovanna writes in a separate piece. MLBTR's Ben Nicholson-Smith examined the team's 2011 rotation yesterday.
- The Astros are looking into the possibility of signing Barret Loux, but haven't made an offer yet, according to Zachary Levine of the Houston Chronicle (via Twitter).
- Carlos Guillen would like to play second base for the Tigers next season, write Jason Beck and Alex DiFilippo of MLB.com.
- Jack Moore of Fangraphs looks into the outstanding numbers Geovany Soto is putting up this year. Earlier today, we looked at Soto as a possible candidate for an extension.
Free Agent Stock Watch: Carlos Pena
Although he has remained the starting first baseman for the second-best team in baseball, Carlos Pena hasn't enjoyed one of his more productive seasons. Flirting with the Mendoza Line for much of the year, Pena has hit .203/.331/.425 after posting a slash line of .252/.382/.553 over his first three seasons with the Rays. The decline in production couldn't come at a worse time for the 32-year-old; not only is he being relied upon by a World Series contender, but he also faces free agency this winter.
The season hasn't been a total disaster for Pena. Although UZR doesn't necessarily back it up, he's still regarded as a strong defensive first baseman. At the plate, his walk and home run rates have stayed in line with his career ratios, and a career-low .223 BABIP suggests that he's been a little unlucky. However, he's also hitting fewer line drives (14.7%) and more ground balls (45.3%) than he ever has in his time with Tampa. Given his uninspiring numbers and the fact that he's part of an overcrowded group of free agent first basemen, Pena won't have nearly the leverage this winter that he and agent Scott Boras would like.
Of course, Pena also isn't the only free-agent-to-be at first base who has seen his production slip this season. Lance Berkman and Derrek Lee have struggled as well, while Troy Glaus, Jorge Cantu, and Lyle Overbay have all suffered through horrid slumps that put a dent in their overall numbers. Players like Adam Dunn, Paul Konerko, Aubrey Huff and Adam LaRoche have positioned themselves well heading into free agency, but the falling stocks of Berkman and Lee should work in Pena's favor.
Pena's situation heading into the offseason is somewhat reminiscent of Adrian Beltre's a year ago. Another Boras client, Beltre was coming off a disappointing, injury-marred 2009 campaign that saw him post a .683 OPS in 477 plate appearances. Because of his defensive prowess and his past offensive production, Beltre was still presented with multi-year offers before eventually accepting a one-year, $10MM deal with the Red Sox. Beltre plays a more premium infield position and was part of a thinner third base market, so Pena may not receive the same kind of offers, but Boras could explore a similarly incentive-laden one-year contract. If the first baseman rebounds, like Beltre has, he may earn himself a bigger payday down the road.
Currently, Pena projects as a Type B free agent, which means signing him won't cost a draft pick. Even if he were a Type A, the Rays would be unlikely to offer arbitration; Pena is making $10.125MM this year and the team plans to reduce payroll in 2011, so they wouldn't want the first baseman to accept an arbitration offer. With no compensation picks attached to him on the open market, Pena could get a multi-year deal from a club like the Nationals, who reportedly "love" him. It wouldn't be a surprise, however, to see the Boras client sign a one-year contract with an eye on improving his stock for 2012.
Martinez Turned Down Red Sox’ Offer, Postpones Extension Talks
Victor Martinez rejected the two-year extension offer he received from the Red Sox, writes Daniel Barbarisi of the Providence Journal. Martinez's agent, Alan Nero, tells Barbarisi that the team's proposal, which was made several weeks ago, was a one-time offer and that there will be no more negotiations until after the season.
As Martinez suggested when he discussed Boston's extension offer, the 31-year-old is looking for a long-term guarantee rather than just one or two years:
"More than anything else, when a team comes to you and says we'll give you a one year deal or a two year deal, they're not telling you that they see you as a long-term piece of their organization," said Nero. "Every player seeks that. Victor, at this point, is looking to be with a team for the rest of his career. It's not a matter of security, it's a matter of trying to get comfortable in one place."
The two sides had initially agreed to wait until after the season to discuss V-Mart's future in Boston, but the team approached the catcher with the two-year offer a few weeks ago. Although the contract was not what Martinez was looking for, Nero says there are "no hard feelings" regarding the proposal and that he expects the Red Sox to have "every chance" to sign his client this winter.
Odds & Ends: Cubs, Varitek, Wakefield, Hoffman
Links for Wednesday, 50 years after the Milwaukee Braves signed Joe Torre as an amateur free agent…
- The Cubs intend to interview Ryne Sandberg and others for their managerial opening within ten days, according to Bruce Levine of ESPNChicago.
- Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports says baseball's revenue sharing system is not broken, but he would like to see MLB adopt a "laser-like focus" on developing a fairer system.
- Jason Varitek told reporters, including Alex Speier of WEEI that he intends to keep playing after next season.
- Tim Wakefield's base salary for 2011 rises from $1.5MM to $2MM if he finishes 3.1 innings tonight, as Scott Lauber of the Boston Herald points out on Twitter.
- Trevor Hoffman told Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel that he'll wait until after the season to decide whether to retire (Twitter link).
- Hisanori Takahashi told Adam Rubin of ESPNNewYork.com that he likes New York and wants to continue playing major league baseball. He just doesn't know if he’ll re-sign with the Mets this winter.
Heyman On Jeter, Ortiz, Minaya
It’s a foregone conclusion that the Yankees will re-sign Derek Jeter, but as Jon Heyman of SI.com points out, “the Yankees' business is so good it doesn't have to look at things the normal way.” That means the Bronx Bombers can afford to pay franchise icons like Jeter for past greatness, even if the offensive numbers aren't there anymore. Here’s the latest on Jeter, plus other notes from around the league:
- One executive told Heyman that he can see the Yankees offering $45-50MM over three years. That fits in with what MLBTR readers predicted earlier in the week. As Dave Cameron of FanGraphs noted, Chipper Jones’ most recent deal was for $42MM over three years.
- Some executives can see the Red Sox trying to lock David Ortiz up for $18-20MM or so over two years instead of exercising his $12.5MM option for 2011. Ortiz has said he’d like to stay in Boston, but he wants a multi-year deal.
- Heyman says it’s still “extremely likely” that the Mets re-assign Omar Minaya. In other words, he may not be the GM for much longer.
The Pirates’ 2011 Rotation
Many of the Pirates' most exciting pitchers are still in the minor leagues, so the team's 2011 rotation does not project to be strong, relative to the rest of the league. Within a few years, Rudy Owens, Jeff Locke, Bryan Morris, Jameson Taillon, Stetson Allie and Luis Heredia could join Brad Lincoln in a potentially loaded rotation, but that isn't about to happen immediately.
For now, the Pirates have a less electrifying group, including non-tender candidate Zach Duke, the struggling Paul Maholm and a number of organizational arms that probably won't have major roles on the next great Pirates team. But it's not yet time to look too far ahead: here's how Pittsburgh's 2011 rotation will look.
Zach Duke has been a mainstay in the team's rotation for years, but he has posted a 5.24 ERA with 5.6 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9 heading into his final season of arbitration. He earns $4.3MM this year and could make $5MM or so in 2011, so Duke is a non-tender candidate. The lefty has been unlucky, so Pittsburgh could keep him around and hope for a rebound season.
Paul Maholm has a 5.43 ERA with 4.6 K/9 and 3.1 BB/9 and would be another non-tender candidate were it not for the extension he signed in 2009. Mahom will earn $5.75MM next year and will likely start for the Pirates.
Jeff Karstens and Ross Ohlendorf, two products of the 2008 deal that sent Xavier Nady to the Bronx, are both injured, but both have turned in respectable seasons. Karstens has a 4.88 ERA in 19 starts with just 2.0 BB/9 and Ohlendorf had a 4.07 ERA before hitting the disabled list with a shoulder strain. Karstens will go to arbitration and Ohlendorf, a possible super two, may qualify as well. Both will definitely be cheap in 2011 and will presumably have the chance to make the team's rotation.
Brad Lincoln and James McDonald have both had up and down seasons. The Pirates let Lincoln start the year in the minors, where he pitched to a 4.12 ERA with 8.0 K/9 and 2.3 BB/9. He struggled to match that production in the majors and may stay in the 'pen for the remainder of the month. Lincoln has the upside of a number 2-3 starter, according to Baseball America, but the Pirates have been cautious with the right-hander so far, so they're probably not going to rush him into the major league rotation next spring.
McDonald has pitched inconsistently since the Pirates acquired him for Octavio Dotel, mixing three dominant starts with as many duds. He's striking out lots of hitters (8.7 K/9) and has a 4.17 ERA as a Pirate, but the 25-year-old will likely have to earn a rotation spot out of spring training if he is to start.
Charlie Morton, Brian Burres, minor leaguer Michael Crotta and Daniel McCutchen (yet another product of the apparently successful Nady deal) provide the Pirates with depth arms, but limited upside. Donnie Veal would have been in this group, too, but the left-hander recently underwent Tommy John surgery and will miss most of 2011.
The Pirates have every reason to look forward to recent additions Taillon, Allie and Heredia, but Allie is the oldest of the three and he's just 19. Owens, Locke and Morris all reached AA Altoona this year and posted excellent overall numbers. They're closer to major league success than, say, Heredia, but it's far too soon to expect them in the major league rotation.
Instead, the Pirates will probably call on Duke, Maholm, Ohlendorf, Karstens, McDonald and others next year. GM Neal Huntington will, in all likelihood, pass on Cliff Lee and other elite pitchers and look into signing a dependable free agent arm. Club president Frank Coonelly is frustrated by the current edition of the Pirates and the team doesn't have many guarantees for next year. If a reliable pitcher like Dave Bush, Jake Westbrook or Kevin Millwood became available at the right price, the Pirates could bolster their rotation depth through free agency.
Geovany Soto: Extension Candidate
Geovany Soto is having a fantastic offensive season and, as Joe Mauer, Kurt Suzuki, Chris Iannetta and many others will tell you, catchers who can hit are sometimes offered extensions once they qualify for arbitration. Soto will head to arbitration for the first time this winter and barring a September slide, he'll be coming off a big season.
The 27-year-old ranks among the top five catchers in baseball when it comes to batting average, on base percentage and home runs. He has hit well before, but even when he won the NL Rookie of the Year in 2008 his batting line wasn't as high as it is now (.284/.399/.521).
The Cubs may prefer to go one year at a time with Soto, but they could opt for cost certainty and lock their catcher up. As the table below shows, both Soto's rate stats and his cumulative stats fall between the numbers Brian McCann and Chris Iannetta had going into their first arbitration season.
Both McCann and Iannetta signed extensions covering their arbitration years, so they are reasonable comparables for Soto. McCann ($15.5MM) earns more than Iannetta ($7.85MM) for his three seasons of arbitration eligibility and it seems likely that Soto will earn somewhere in between if the Cubs lock him up. McCann signed his deal early in his career, when he had less leverage, so it seems likely that Soto could command nearly as much for his three arbitration seasons as McCann got for his, especially given Soto's massive 2010 numbers. Perhaps the Cubs could buy Soto's 2011-13 seasons for $14MM or so.
Jonny Gomes’ 2011 Option
Jonny Gomes has already set career highs in games (126), plate appearances (482), runs (63), hits (112), doubles (22) and RBI (77). Reds manager Dusty Baker has been calling on Gomes more than ever and the left fielder has seen his slash line dip, possibly because he's facing more right-handed pitching than usual. Gomes' .262/.328/.436 line is about average, but his power has dropped off this year, especially in the second half.
The Reds can retain him for $1.75MM in 2011 or buy him out for $200K. They don't have the option of turning the option down and trying to re-sign him more cheaply through arbitration; Cincinnati must release the 29-year-old if they turn his option down. The Reds could sign Gomes after releasing him, but all 30 teams would be able to make bids, too.
Despite Gomes' struggles against right-handed pitching and less-than-brilliant defense (he posted negative UZRs every year from 2005-10), the Reds will likely have some interest in retaining him for a net cost of $1.55MM. However, they non-tendered him last winter after a season in which he hit 20 homers and posted an .879 OPS, so history suggests they aren't afraid of letting Gomes hit the open market. What do you think the Reds will do? Click here to take the survey and here to view the results.
Red Sox Offer Martinez Two-Year Deal
Victor Martinez told Rob Bradford of WEEI that the Red Sox offered him a two-year extension. The sides had talked about a similar contract, but the offer surprised the Boston catcher, who would prefer a longer-term deal.
“I don’t really have to do it,” Martinez said. “They came with something, and that might just be where the negotiations start. But I don’t see myself signing a two-year deal. I’m young enough. I work hard and I give it all. I just want to be treated fair.”
Martinez, 31, says he wants to play for five or six more years and sees himself as a catcher, rather than a first baseman or designated hitter. He prefers catching, but Martinez says his top priority will be to join a club that can compete for a World Series title.
Many teams will likely have interest in Martinez if he hits the open market, since he will arguably be the best offensive catcher available. So far in 2010, he has 14 homers and a .292/.339/.466 batting line. His .804 OPS beats potential free agent catchers A.J. Pierzynski, John Buck and Rod Barajas.
Martinez currently projects as a Type A free agent, which means the Red Sox would obtain two top picks if the catcher turns down arbitration to sign elsewhere. V-Mart says he wants to sign long term, so he'd surely turn arbitration down, but that would leave the Red Sox without a catcher. Jason Varitek, also a free agent after the season, plans to continue playing, but it would be a surprise to see Boston hand the veteran a starting job.
Angels Release Robb Quinlan
The Angels released Robb Quinlan, according to MLB.com’s Evan Drellich. Quinlan, 33, spent part of eight seasons with the Angels as a utility player, though he batted just 36 times in the big leagues this year. He spent most of the season at Triple A, where he posted a .258/.336/.305 line in 144 plate appearances.
Quinlan drew interest from the Twins, Rockies and Dodgers last winter, before signing with the Angels in February. As usual, he played all four corner positions in 2010. Earlier today, the Angels released another veteran role player, Brian Stokes.