Baseball Blogs Weigh In: Italy, Wilson, Howard
Five years ago today, Alfonso Soriano stole second base in the first inning against the Brewers, becoming the fourth member of the 40-40 club. Soriano, then with the Nationals, finished with 46 homers and 41 steals before signing his massive eight-year, $136MM contract with the Cubs after the season. Jose Canseco (1988), Barry Bonds (1996), and Alex Rodriguez (1998) are the only other players that have gone 40-40 in a single season.
Here's this week's batch of links, starting with a very interesting podcast…
- Replacement Level Baseball interviewed Corey Conflenti, a center fielder for the Lodi Old Rags of the Italian Baseball League. They discussed the level of talent in Italy, the cultural differences, the styles of play, and the impact of Alex Liddi's big league callup.
- 1 Blue Jays Way interviewed Colby Rasmus during his minor league rehab assignment.
- Baseball Time In Arlington muses about the future of C.J. Wilson.
- Brotherly Glove wonders what kind of contract Ryan Howard would have received if he was able to become a free agent after the season.
- Swingin' A's reviewed the Athletics' rebuilding process (part one, part two).
- Rant Sports Indians identified Chad Durbin as a September trade candidate.
- Mike Scioscia's Tragic Illness says farewell to Jonathan Broxton.
- Camden Crazies analyzes the Mike Gonzalez–Pedro Strop.
- Pirates Prospects thinks the Pirates 2012 pitching staff may already be set.
- The Friarhood says it's time for the Padres to shut Tim Stauffer down.
- SF Giants Rumors looks through some shortstop options for the 2012 Giants.
- Meanwhile, Giants Nirvana previews the outfield free agent market.
- Call to the Pen doesn't think AL contenders need to worry about the Angels despite their strong rotation.
- The Flagrant Fan looks at how the Yankees have been doing without the injured A-Rod.
- Rant Sports Yankees says New York could be poised to make several big trades this offseason.
- Rising Apple wrote about some young players forcing their way onto the 2012 Mets.
- Blogging Mets muses about Carlos Quentin in a Mets uniform next season.
- Marlin Maniac looked at Emilio Bonifacio's season, and wonders if this is the real him.
- Through The Fence Baseball ranked the best pitchers in Dodgers history.
- Bleacher GM lists some AAAA All-Stars.
- MLB Reports wonders if MLB should put another team in Canada.
- The Hardball Times takes a second look at Ian Kinsler's fantasy value.
If you have a suggestion for this feature, Mike can be reached here. Only one email per week, please.
Free Agent Stock Watch: Ryan Madson
A total of 17 relief pitchers signed multiyear deals last offseason and while there’s no guarantee that owners will spend just as freely this year, it won’t be surprising if they do. So with a number of closing jobs opening up around baseball, Ryan Madson’s job prospects are promising.
The 31-year-old right-hander has been consistently effective since returning to the bullpen in 2007, so agent Scott Boras will be able to point interested teams to an array of impressive stats. There’s Madson’s 2.63 ERA (supported by his 2.59 SIERA and 3.06 xFIP), his 94.1 mph fastball and his 31 saves. His peripheral stats are also strong – 0.33 HR/9, 9.1 K/9, 2.6 BB/9 and a 50.7% ground ball rate – and he can handle hitters on both sides of the plate.
There's a line of thinking that opposes major commitments to relievers given the volatility of their stats from year to year and their limited ability to shape the outcome of a game or season (in relation to starting pitchers or position players). The era of four and five year deals for top closers may be over, but Boras can point to Madson's consistency in an attempt to obtain multiyear offers. The 6'6" Californian has kept his ERA at 3.26 or below, pitched at least 53 innings and struck out at least 6.9 batters per nine innings every season since 2007.
Like Jonathan Papelbon, who will probably be the top free agent reliever of the year, Madson projects as a Type A free agent. Given the Phillies’ need for relief help and Madson’s current salary of $4.5MM, an offer of arbitration seems likely. Assuming Madson declines, he’ll cost teams other than the Phillies a top pick in next year’s draft, which will reduce some clubs’ interest.
A pair of MLB executives recently predicted to ESPN.com’s Jayson Stark that Madson will sign a deal like the one Jose Valverde obtained two winters ago: $14MM over two years plus an option (Valverde was a Type A free agent at the time). Madson seems destined for a multiyear deal and a three-year contract seems likely to me. Setup men such as Joaquin Benoit, Jesse Crain, Matt Guerrier and Scott Downs found three-year deals last winter and Boras obtained $35MM over three years for Rafael Soriano. It's hard to imagine Madson signing for that much money, but some general managers and owners will probably be willing to guarantee Madson a third year for the promise of bullpen stability.
Red Sox Notes: Fister, Harden, Adams, Orioles
The odds say the Red Sox have a 94.5% chance of making the playoffs, but I'm guessing that's not going to console most Red Sox fans. Boston leads Tampa Bay by three games in the Wild Card race, but that gap might have been wider by now if they had made different moves at the trade deadline. Alex Speier of WEEI.com has the details on the deadline deals that didn't happen…
- When the Red Sox made cursory inquiries about Doug Fister, it became clear that the Mariners were aiming high and looking for a right-handed bat. Since joining the Tigers, Fister has a 2.28 ERA with 7.2 K/9 and 0.9 BB/9 in 51 1/3 impressive innings.
- The Red Sox were set to acquire Rich Harden from the A’s, but once they looked at his medical records, they were no longer willing to include both Lars Anderson and a player to be named. The PTBNL would have come from a list of high-upside players in the lower minors.
- Raul Alcantara, an 18-year-old Dominican who signed for $500K in 2009 and Brandon Workman, a second round pick in last year’s draft, would have been on the list.
- The Red Sox also kicked around the idea of acquiring Harden’s former teammate, Brad Ziegler, who ended up going to Arizona.
- The Padres weren’t thrilled with Boston’s prospects, so Jed Hoyer and Theo Epstein never came close to completing deals for Mike Adams or other Padres relievers.
- The Orioles and Red Sox never exchanged names regarding a possible Koji Uehara deal.
Beltran Would Consider Giants; Wants More Offense
Carlos Beltran won’t rule out the possibility of returning to San Francisco when he hits free agency after the season, but he’d like to see the Giants add some offense first, according to Andrew Baggarly of the San Jose Mercury News. The expected return of Buster Posey and Freddy Sanchez won’t necessarily be enough.
"I would consider this organization for sure, because the pitching is unbelievable, and adding [Posey and Sanchez] back, of course you're adding more offense to the ballclub," Beltran said."But I believe there should be a little bit more than that."
Beltran suggested that the Giants could use a leadoff hitter to improve an offense that currently ranks last in the National League in runs scored. Though the Scott Boras client doesn’t particularly like hitting in AT&T Park, he’s says that’s secondary to playing for a winning team.
A two-year, $22MM deal would likely stretch the Giants' budget, Baggarly writes. The asking price for the 34-year-old Beltran figures to be even higher. Outgoing CEO Bill Neukom suggested yesterday that Boras will start the bidding for Beltran at five or six years, according to John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle.
Quick Hits: Clippard, Storen, Ellsbury, Braves
B.J. Upton, Evan Longoria and Casey Kotchman all homered for the Rays tonight as Tampa Bay defeated Boston, 9-2, in the opener of a big four-game series. The Red Sox now have just a three-game lead over the Rays (and a four-game lead over the idle Angels) for the AL Wild Card.
Some notes from around the league….
- If Drew Storen is traded, Tyler Clippard shouldn't become the Nationals' closer since he's proven to be invaluable as the team's go-to reliever, argues Ben Goessling of MASNsports.com. It could be a moot point, though, since Goessling says it's "unlikely" that the Nats deal Storen.
- The Rays were the first team to discover Jacoby Ellsbury, drafting him in the 23rd round of the 2002 draft. Brian MacPherson of the Providence Journal talks to the scouts who pushed for Tampa Bay to pick Ellsbury, who instead decided to attend Oregon State.
- Frank Wren tells David O'Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution that no decision has been made about Alex Gonzalez's future with the Braves, but both the club and the shortstop sound open to Gonzalez returning in 2012. Gonzalez is popular in the clubhouse and would be an ideal bridge at shortstop to prospect Tyler Pastornicky.
- Mike Newman of Fangraphs profiles Braves minor league left-hander Ronan Pacheco, who "is simply too perfect an example of a pitcher who bucks just about every prospect stereotype on both the statistical and scouting sides to not discuss."
- Matt Eddy of Baseball America recaps this week's minor league transactions.
- David DeJesus "appears the least likely to return" of the Athletics' three free agent outfielders, writes MLB.com's Jane Lee. Josh Willingham and Coco Crisp are also free agents this winter and Willingham said earlier today that he would like to stay with Oakland.
- Angels GM Tony Reagins tells Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register that he doesn't regret giving Bobby Abreu the $9MM option for 2012 that vested in July.
Twins Notes: Payroll, Cuddyer, Kubel, Nishioka
MLB.com's Rhett Bollinger covered a few hot stove topics in his recent Twins mailbag piece, and here are some of the highlights….
- GM Bill Smith "has indicated the club is going to try to sign at least one of" free agents Michael Cuddyer and Jason Kubel. The latest Elias rankings show Cuddyer is a Type A free agent and Kubel is a Type B, so Cuddyer could net the Twins an extra draft pick if they let him walk.
- There has been no talk of reducing the Twins' $113MM payroll from last season. In his look at the team's arbitration-eligible players, MLBTR's Tim Dierkes speculated that Minnesota could have up to $30MM to spend this winter if it planned to stay at the $113MM figure. That would be more than enough to sign both Kubel and Cuddyer if the team so desired.
- That money could also be spent on a high-profile free agent, though Bollinger notes that isn't the Twins' style. He believes that besides Kubel or Cuddyer, the club will focus on infield depth and rebuilding the bullpen.
- Joe Nathan "has expressed a willingness to remain with the organization" and we heard last week that the Twins were also interested in keeping Nathan in the fold. This would likely require signing Nathan to a new free agent contract, since the Twins will almost surely decline Nathan's $12MM option for 2012.
- Minnesota will probably keep Tsuyoshi Nishioka and have him compete with Trevor Plouffe for the shortstop job next season. Bollinger notes that Nishioka's experience at both short and second base would make him a good candidate as a utilityman.
NL West Links: Bauer, Broxton, Cook, Brach
It's Panda-monium at Coors Field tonight, as Pablo Sandoval hit for the cycle against the Rockies. Andrew Baggarly of the San Jose Mercury News reports that Sandoval's cycle was the 25th in Giants history and the 10th since the club moved to San Francisco. If you had Sandoval and George Kottaras in a "who will hit for the cycle?" pool this season, you are now a multi-millionaire.
Some items from the NL West…
- Kevin Towers hinted to Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic that the Diamondbacks may not call up Trevor Bauer in September. Towers thought the young prospect could have pitched too many innings for UCLA and in the minors this year.
- Jonathan Broxton will likely be shut down for the season after suffering a setback with his injured elbow, reports MLB.com's Ken Gurnick. This probably also spells the end for Broxton with the Dodgers, as the right-hander is a free agent this winter. Don Mattingly was non-committal when talking about if Broxton could be back in L.A. next season.
- Aaron Cook isn't planning to retire and wants to pitch in the Majors next season, reports Troy Renck of the Denver Post. Cook is set to start on Wednesday in the Rockies' last home game of the season, and it will likely be his last appearance with the team — Colorado is expected to decline Cook's $11MM option for 2012 and buy him out for $500K. MLB.com's Thomas Harding describes Cook's start as "a thank you for his long run with the organization," as Cook is the Rockies' all-time wins leader.
- The Rockies will install a humidor at their Triple-A stadium in Colorado Springs, reports Jim Krieger of the Denver Post. The team feels its pitching prospects can't properly develop by throwing in the thin air, and Colorado Springs' 6.41 team ERA this season is evidence.
- Brad Brach's journey from being a 42nd-round draft pick to pitching in the Padres bullpen is detailed by MLB.com's Corey Brock.
NL Central Notes: Berkman, Cards, Myers, Pagnozzi
Some news from the NL Central…
- Lance Berkman could be targeted by the Brewers as a replacement for Prince Fielder, opines Jon Heyman of Sports Illustrated (Twitter link). I'd suspect that Berkman will get a lot of interest from teams that miss out on Fielder and Albert Pujols this winter.
- Berkman, Rafael Furcal and, of course, Pujols are the biggest question marks for the Cardinals heading into the offseason, writes MLB.com's Matthew Leach, but overall, Leach thinks the 2012 Cards will look much like the 2011 team. Both Leach and Jeff Gordon of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch indicate that the Cardinals' bullpen is stable, but the team could add another left-handed reliever. Gordon notes that Arthur Rhodes wants to return to St. Louis next year.
- Brett Myers could be trade bait after the season, but MLB.com's Brian McTaggart thinks the Astros could do worse than holding onto Myers to eat innings and provide a veteran presence in the rotation. McTaggart also discusses the Astros' proposed shift to the American League and the Carlos Lee/Brett Wallace first base situation as part of this fan mailbag.
- Chip Bailey of the Houston Chronicle suggests a few areas where the young Astros could look to add veteran parts for next season.
- The Pirates claimed catcher Matt Pagnozzi off waivers from the Rockies yesterday, but Rob Biertempfel of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review tweets that the Bucs originally tried to get Pagnozzi in June before instead acquiring Michael McKenry from Boston. Biertempfel also says the Pirates are looking at Pagnozzi just as a possible backup in 2012, not as a starter (Twitter link).
- With the Brewers so close to the playoffs, Michael Hunt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel wonders why Fielder and Francisco Rodriguez chose to discuss their likely departure and displeasure with not closing games, respectively.
- Ben Nicholson-Smith delivered another set of NL Central news items earlier today on MLBTR.
Omar Vizquel Wants To Play Another Season
Omar Vizquel wants to play a 24th Major League season in 2012, reports Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times. The veteran infielder still believes he can contribute, though he doesn't believe he'll return for a third season with the White Sox.
"I would love to have an opportunity to play another year,'' Vizquel said. "I'm not expecting to play every day but I think I have the ability to play….When you don't win you have to make changes. That's one of the reasons I doubt I will be here next year.''
Vizquel is hitting .245/.282/.294 in 178 plate appearances for the White Sox this season, splitting time at third, second and shortstop, with even one game played at first base. The 13-time Gold Glover's once-legendary defense has fallen off according to UZR/150, though it's hard to properly gauge his fielding given the small sample size of playing time.
There's also a slim chance that Vizquel can reach the 3000-hit plateau for his career. He currently has 2839 career hits (tied with Charlie Gehringer for 45th all-time), though since Vizquel has averaged just 60 hits a year since 2008, he would have to play until at least 2013 to join the 3000-hit club if he continues his current pace.
Marlins Notes: Infante, Hanley, Morrison, Ozzie
A few items about the soon-to-be Miami Marlins…
- Omar Infante has turned down the Marlins' first multiyear contract proposal, reports Juan C. Rodriguez of the South Florida Sun Sentinel. Infante believes the team will wait until after the season to resume negotiations, though both sides are known to be interested in continuing Infante's stint in Miami.
- Also from Rodriguez (Twitter link), he thinks the Fish will at least take a look at free agent Edwin Jackson this winter.
- Hanley Ramirez underwent shoulder surgery today, performed by Dr. James Andrews, reports Joe Capozzi of the Palm Beach Post (Twitter link). The shortstop is expected to be fit for Opening Day when the Marlins open their new ballpark, though Capozzi isn't sure Ramirez will be recovered by April.
- Between Logan Morrison's grievance against the Fish, Ozzie Guillen's tenure in Chicago possibly coming to an end and the Marlins' long-held interest in having Guillen manage their club, speculation has already begun that the White Sox and Marlins could revisit the possibility of a rare player-for-manager deal. Kevin Kaduk of Yahoo Sports is skeptical that Florida would give up a talented player for a manager whose contract is up after 2012 (or who could be fired before then). MLB.com's Alden Gonzalez (via Twitter) is even more blunt, saying the deal would be "the dumbest trade in baseball history — and even Ozzie would agree."