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Baseball Blogs Weigh In: Italy, Wilson, Howard

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Five years ago today, Alfonso Soriano stole second base in the first inning against the Brewers, becoming the fourth member of the 40-40 club. Soriano, then with the Nationals, finished with 46 homers and 41 steals before signing his massive eight-year, $136MM contract with the Cubs after the season. Jose Canseco (1988), Barry Bonds (1996), and Alex Rodriguez (1998) are the only other players that have gone 40-40 in a single season.

Here's this week's batch of links, starting with a very interesting podcast…

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Free Agent Stock Watch: Ryan Madson

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A total of 17 relief pitchers signed multiyear deals last offseason and while there’s no guarantee that owners will spend just as freely this year, it won’t be surprising if they do. So with a number of closing jobs opening up around baseball, Ryan Madson’s job prospects are promising.

The 31-year-old right-hander has been consistently effective since returning to the bullpen in 2007, so agent Scott Boras will be able to point interested teams to an array of impressive stats. There’s Madson’s 2.63 ERA (supported by his 2.59 SIERA and 3.06 xFIP), his 94.1 mph fastball and his 31 saves. His peripheral stats are also strong – 0.33 HR/9, 9.1 K/9, 2.6 BB/9 and a 50.7% ground ball rate – and he can handle hitters on both sides of the plate.

There's a line of thinking that opposes major commitments to relievers given the volatility of their stats from year to year and their limited ability to shape the outcome of a game or season (in relation to starting pitchers or position players). The era of four and five year deals for top closers may be over, but Boras can point to Madson's consistency in an attempt to obtain multiyear offers. The 6'6" Californian has kept his ERA at 3.26 or below, pitched at least 53 innings and struck out at least 6.9 batters per nine innings every season since 2007. 

Like Jonathan Papelbon, who will probably be the top free agent reliever of the year, Madson projects as a Type A free agent. Given the Phillies’ need for relief help and Madson’s current salary of $4.5MM, an offer of arbitration seems likely. Assuming Madson declines, he’ll cost teams other than the Phillies a top pick in next year’s draft, which will reduce some clubs’ interest.

A pair of MLB executives recently predicted to ESPN.com’s Jayson Stark that Madson will sign a deal like the one Jose Valverde obtained two winters ago: $14MM over two years plus an option (Valverde was a Type A free agent at the time). Madson seems destined for a multiyear deal and a three-year contract seems likely to me. Setup men such as Joaquin Benoit, Jesse Crain, Matt Guerrier and Scott Downs found three-year deals last winter and Boras obtained $35MM over three years for Rafael Soriano. It's hard to imagine Madson signing for that much money, but some general managers and owners will probably be willing to guarantee Madson a third year for the promise of bullpen stability.

Red Sox Notes: Fister, Harden, Adams, Orioles

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The odds say the Red Sox have a 94.5% chance of making the playoffs, but I'm guessing that's not going to console most Red Sox fans. Boston leads Tampa Bay by three games in the Wild Card race, but that gap might have been wider by now if they had made different moves at the trade deadline. Alex Speier of WEEI.com has the details on the deadline deals that didn't happen…

  • When the Red Sox made cursory inquiries about Doug Fister, it became clear that the Mariners were aiming high and looking for a right-handed bat. Since joining the Tigers, Fister has a 2.28 ERA with 7.2 K/9 and 0.9 BB/9 in 51 1/3 impressive innings.
  • The Red Sox were set to acquire Rich Harden from the A’s, but once they looked at his medical records, they were no longer willing to include both Lars Anderson and a player to be named. The PTBNL would have come from a list of high-upside players in the lower minors.
  • Raul Alcantara, an 18-year-old Dominican who signed for $500K in 2009 and Brandon Workman, a second round pick in last year’s draft, would have been on the list.
  • The Red Sox also kicked around the idea of acquiring Harden’s former teammate, Brad Ziegler, who ended up going to Arizona.
  • The Padres weren’t thrilled with Boston’s prospects, so Jed Hoyer and Theo Epstein never came close to completing deals for Mike Adams or other Padres relievers.
  • The Orioles and Red Sox never exchanged names regarding a possible Koji Uehara deal.

Beltran Would Consider Giants; Wants More Offense

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Carlos Beltran won’t rule out the possibility of returning to San Francisco when he hits free agency after the season, but he’d like to see the Giants add some offense first, according to Andrew Baggarly of the San Jose Mercury News. The expected return of Buster Posey and Freddy Sanchez won’t necessarily be enough. 

"I would consider this organization for sure, because the pitching is unbelievable, and adding  [Posey and Sanchez] back, of course you're adding more offense to the ballclub," Beltran said."But I believe there should be a little bit more than that." 

Beltran suggested that the Giants could use a leadoff hitter to improve an offense that currently ranks last in the National League in runs scored. Though the Scott Boras client doesn’t particularly like hitting in AT&T Park, he’s says that’s secondary to playing for a winning team.

A two-year, $22MM deal would likely stretch the Giants' budget, Baggarly writes. The asking price for the 34-year-old Beltran figures to be even higher. Outgoing CEO Bill Neukom suggested yesterday that Boras will start the bidding for Beltran at five or six years, according to John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle.

Quick Hits: Clippard, Storen, Ellsbury, Braves

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B.J. Upton, Evan Longoria and Casey Kotchman all homered for the Rays tonight as Tampa Bay defeated Boston, 9-2, in the opener of a big four-game series.  The Red Sox now have just a three-game lead over the Rays (and a four-game lead over the idle Angels) for the AL Wild Card.

Some notes from around the league….

Twins Notes: Payroll, Cuddyer, Kubel, Nishioka

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MLB.com's Rhett Bollinger covered a few hot stove topics in his recent Twins mailbag piece, and here are some of the highlights….

  • GM Bill Smith "has indicated the club is going to try to sign at least one of" free agents Michael Cuddyer and Jason Kubel.  The latest Elias rankings show Cuddyer is a Type A free agent and Kubel is a Type B, so Cuddyer could net the Twins an extra draft pick if they let him walk.
  • There has been no talk of reducing the Twins' $113MM payroll from last season.  In his look at the team's arbitration-eligible players, MLBTR's Tim Dierkes speculated that Minnesota could have up to $30MM to spend this winter if it planned to stay at the $113MM figure.  That would be more than enough to sign both Kubel and Cuddyer if the team so desired.
  • That money could also be spent on a high-profile free agent, though Bollinger notes that isn't the Twins' style.  He believes that besides Kubel or Cuddyer, the club will focus on infield depth and rebuilding the bullpen.
  • Joe Nathan "has expressed a willingness to remain with the organization" and we heard last week that the Twins were also interested in keeping Nathan in the fold.  This would likely require signing Nathan to a new free agent contract, since the Twins will almost surely decline Nathan's $12MM option for 2012.
  • Minnesota will probably keep Tsuyoshi Nishioka and have him compete with Trevor Plouffe for the shortstop job next season.  Bollinger notes that Nishioka's experience at both short and second base would make him a good candidate as a utilityman.

NL West Links: Bauer, Broxton, Cook, Brach

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It's Panda-monium at Coors Field tonight, as Pablo Sandoval hit for the cycle against the Rockies.  Andrew Baggarly of the San Jose Mercury News reports that Sandoval's cycle was the 25th in Giants history and the 10th since the club moved to San Francisco.  If you had Sandoval and George Kottaras in a "who will hit for the cycle?" pool this season, you are now a multi-millionaire.

Some items from the NL West…

  • Kevin Towers hinted to Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic that the Diamondbacks may not call up Trevor Bauer in September.  Towers thought the young prospect could have pitched too many innings for UCLA and in the minors this year.
  • Jonathan Broxton will likely be shut down for the season after suffering a setback with his injured elbow, reports MLB.com's Ken Gurnick. This probably also spells the end for Broxton with the Dodgers, as the right-hander is a free agent this winter.  Don Mattingly was non-committal when talking about if Broxton could be back in L.A. next season.
  • Aaron Cook isn't planning to retire and wants to pitch in the Majors next season, reports Troy Renck of the Denver Post.  Cook is set to start on Wednesday in the Rockies' last home game of the season, and it will likely be his last appearance with the team — Colorado is expected to decline Cook's $11MM option for 2012 and buy him out for $500K.  MLB.com's Thomas Harding describes Cook's start as "a thank you for his long run with the organization," as Cook is the Rockies' all-time wins leader.
  • The Rockies will install a humidor at their Triple-A stadium in Colorado Springs, reports Jim Krieger of the Denver Post.  The team feels its pitching prospects can't properly develop by throwing in the thin air, and Colorado Springs' 6.41 team ERA this season is evidence.
  • Brad Brach's journey from being a 42nd-round draft pick to pitching in the Padres bullpen is detailed by MLB.com's Corey Brock.

NL Central Notes: Berkman, Cards, Myers, Pagnozzi

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Some news from the NL Central…

Omar Vizquel Wants To Play Another Season

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Omar Vizquel wants to play a 24th Major League season in 2012, reports Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times.  The veteran infielder still believes he can contribute, though he doesn't believe he'll return for a third season with the White Sox.

"I would love to have an opportunity to play another year,'' Vizquel said. "I'm not expecting to play every day but I think I have the ability to play….When you don't win you have to make changes.  That's one of the reasons I doubt I will be here next year.''

Vizquel is hitting .245/.282/.294 in 178 plate appearances for the White Sox this season, splitting time at third, second and shortstop, with even one game played at first base.  The 13-time Gold Glover's once-legendary defense has fallen off according to UZR/150, though it's hard to properly gauge his fielding given the small sample size of playing time.

There's also a slim chance that Vizquel can reach the 3000-hit plateau for his career.  He currently has 2839 career hits (tied with Charlie Gehringer for 45th all-time), though since Vizquel has averaged just 60 hits a year since 2008, he would have to play until at least 2013 to join the 3000-hit club if he continues his current pace.

Marlins Notes: Infante, Hanley, Morrison, Ozzie

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A few items about the soon-to-be Miami Marlins…

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