Extension Candidate: Cameron Maybin
Arbitration rewards sluggers, closers and above-average starters. Fleet-footed center fielders with modest power? Not so much. That’s why Cameron Maybin is a candidate for a modest extension with the Padres, even after a breakout season. The Padres will likely resume extension talks with the 24-year-old before long, so it’s a good time to look ahead to a possible long-term deal.
After the 2011 season, MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz empirically showed what teams and agents have known for some time: the one skill that really gets position players paid is power. Batting average and stolen bases “pale in importance to almighty home runs and RBI,” Swartz wrote. What’s more, position does not seem to matter much either.
This is bad news for Maybin, a strong defensive center fielder who doesn’t hit for much power and calls Petco Park home. The 2005 first rounder will be undervalued through the arbitration process despite his contributions on offense and defense.
Maybin posted a .264/.323./393 line in 2011 for a respectable 103 OPS+ and he plays better-than-average defense in center field, according to UZR/150 (+11.6 in ’11, +8.0 career). Though Maybin is an above-average player according to wins above replacement, the arbitration process won't recognize his defense, which will limit his leverage in extension talks.
Powerful outfielders such as Jay Bruce, Justin Upton and Carlos Gonzalez all signed extensions worth at least $50MM at similar stages in their careers, but Maybin’s not in line for that kind of deal, since he hasn't showed similar power in parts of five MLB seasons. His representatives may instead be looking to recent contracts for Franklin Gutierrez, Jose Tabata and Denard Span as points of reference.
Gutierrez, Tabata and Span, comparable offensive players to Maybin who also have experience in center field, all signed deals that bought out their three arbitration years and include options for free agent seasons. Maybin currently has more service time than Span and Tabata had when they signed and less service time than Gutierrez had when he signed, but their deals provide a possible framework for the Padres and Baratta Partners.
Span, Tabata and Gutierrez all signed deals that include club options and the Padres would presumably push for at least one option year if they extend their center fielder. A five-year deal along the lines of Gutierrez’s contract would guarantee Maybin more than $20MM. One possible scenario: $500K for 2012, his final pre-arbitration season, $2.5MM, $4MM and $6MM for his three arbitration seasons, $8MM for his first free agent year and an $8MM club option with a $500K buyout for a second free agent season.
If the sides discuss an extension, as expected, they could explore any number of scenarios, but a five-year deal in the $21-22MM could work for both sides in my opinion. Maybin would get the security of a long-term deal and the Padres would extend their control over a player who’s more valuable than the arbitration process would indicate.
Photo courtesy Icon SMI.
Cubs Notes: Garza, Wood, LaHair, Marshall
The Cubs agreed to send Carlos Zambrano to the Marlins for Chris Volstad today. The Cubs take on nearly all of Zambrano’s salary, but in doing so they obtain Volstad, a valuable ground ball pitcher who has consistently made his starts since joining the Marlins’ rotation in 2008. He’s arbitration eligible this offseason and under team control through 2014. Before the trade, Cubs president of baseball operations Theo Epstein joined 720 WGN in Chicago for an extended interview. Here are some highlights:
- Epstein said Matt Garza is a “top of the rotation type” starter. In general, players like Garza can become long-term assets by signing extensions or becoming trade chips, Epstein said. David Kaplan of CSNChicago.com hears that the Cubs continue asking "for [the] moon" in trade talks about Garza (Twitter link).
- Rules limiting amateur spending in the new collective bargaining agreement won’t necessarily slow the Cubs down. "It just means we have to be better and more accurate with our drafting than the competition," Epstein said.
- Epstein said he'd be greatly disappointed if the Cubs don't re-sign Kerry Wood. Wood signed a below-market $1.5MM deal last offseason but is said to want a market value deal this winter.
- The Cubs expect to start Bryan LaHair at first base. The 29-year-old posted a .331/.405/.664 line with 38 home runs at Triple-A in 2011. He also posted an .885 OPS in 69 plate appearances with the big league club.
- Epstein addressed Zambrano, saying "change needs to happen and change will happen." Not long after the interview, the Cubs agreed to send the right-hander to Miami.
- Epstein explained that some disappointing players can recover from poor seasons to produce again. "It's a game played by human beings and the ability to bounce back is very real," Epstein said.
- The Cubs value Sean Marshall, but felt it made sense to trade him for players who can contribute beyond 2012 (Travis Wood and two prospects), especially since Marshall isn't likely to be tied to draft pick compensation next offseason.
- The Cubs are "very committed" to Carlos Marmol as their closer.
Mariners Sign Munenori Kawasaki
The Mariners have signed Japanese shortstop Munenori Kawasaki to a minor league contract, tweets Matt Eddy of Baseball America. MLB has confirmed the move, Eddy notes. Kawasaki, 30, was a free agent and could sign without a posting fee.
Kawasaki posted a .267/.310/.327 with 31 stolen bases in 655 plate appearances as Softbank's shortstop in 2011. The Mariners, who are also nearing a deal with Japanese right-hander Hisashi Iwakuma, have been linked to Kawasaki since last month.
D’Backs Notes: Parra, Montero, Drew
Diamondbacks GM Kevin Towers told Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic that he’s open to the idea of adding another starting pitcher before Spring Training begins. If the D’Backs do add an arm, expect a bargain. "We're trying to identify the right guy," Towers said. "Someone who sees an opportunity to compete, who knows what the competition is and wants to do it." Here are the rest of Piecoro’s notes:
- Teams called about Gerardo Parra after the D’Backs signed Jason Kubel, but Towers expects Parra to pick up significant playing time in 2012. "I'm not really motivated to move him," he said. Towers expects Parra to see more playing time in center and right, especially against tough right-handers.
- The D’Backs haven’t made major progress toward an extension with Miguel Montero, but they still hope to keep him “well beyond this year,” according to Towers. The catcher projects to earn $5.3MM in 2012, his final season before hitting free agency. There aren’t a lot of relevant catcher extensions for the sides to use as a frame of reference for a possible deal, according to Towers. “I think Miggy likes it here and we like him here. We just have to keep working at it," the GM said.
- Agent Jose Mijares recently said the sides are nearing an agreement on a 2012 salary for the extension candidate.
- Stephen Drew is recovering from ankle surgery and still hopes to start the season on time.
Rangers Notes: Napoli, Fielder, Darvish, Bullpen
Yesterday we heard that Yu Darvish was in the Dallas-Forth Worth Metroplex to see the area as well as the Rangers' operations first-hand. No deal is close though, and the two sides have 13 days to get one done. Here's the latest from Texas, courtesy of MLB.com's T.R. Sullivan…
- "We love Mike and we're not closing the door on anything but right now we are focused on a one-year deal," said Daniels in reference to a long-term deal for Mike Napoli. The backstop is arbitration-eligible for the final time and projects to earn $8.5MM in 2012. The two sides were discussing a long-term deal last month.
- Daniels made it clear the team is not interested in Prince Fielder as their focus right now is on Darvish. If something falls apart with the righty, Sullivan speculates that they could turn their attention to Fielder.
- The Rangers are still interested in upgrading their bullpen, with lefty relief being a primary focus. Texas recently lost southpaw Darren Oliver to the Blue Jays.
AL East Notes: Crisp, Silva, Soler, Chavez
Four of the five American League East teams could use starting pitching depth and though the Rays have enviable rotation depth, they need a bat or two. Here are the details on the division, starting with Tampa Bay…
- Coco Crisp, who agreed to a two-year, $14MM deal with the Athletics yesterday, told Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle that the Rays were a finalist for him (Twitter links). Tampa Bay was “in heavy on” the outfielder, but Oakland presented the better offer, according to Slusser.
- Carlos Silva would earn a base salary of $1MM if he makes his way onto Boston’s roster, according to Scott Lauber of the Boston Herald. Silva, whose minor league deal with the Red Sox was announced yesterday, “will be part of a competition in Spring Training” GM Ben Cherington said.
- The Red Sox have scouted both Yoenis Cespedes and Jorge Soler, but they’re likely to pass on Cespedes and bid for Soler instead, according to Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe. The Red Sox are intrigued by Soler’s talent and they don’t like Cespedes’ asking price.
- Japanese infielder Hiroyuki Nakajima appears to seek a couple of million dollars per season on a multiyear deal, according to Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com (Twitter link). Heyman points out that Eric Chavez is an alternative for the Yankees if they don't work out a deal with Nakajima by this Friday's deadline.
- Click here for details on the Orioles.
Reds Sign Andrew Brackman
The Reds announced that they have signed former first round pick Andrew Brackman to a Major League deal. The 26-year-old Cincinnati native will earn the MLB minimum plus incentives, according to Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com, who first reported the deal December 13th (Twitter link)
The Yankees selected Brackman 30th overall in 2007, but he recorded just seven outs for them in the Major Leagues. The 6'10" right-hander posted a 5.11 ERA with 8.0 K/9 and 5.0 BB/9 in three minor league seasons before with the Yankees. They declined their 2012 option on Brackman after the season, making him a free agent.
Rays Sign Fernando Rodney
The Rays announced that they signed right-hander Fernando Rodney to a one-year deal that includes club option for 2013. Rodney will earn $1.75MM in 2012 and has a $2.5MM option for '13 with a $250K buyout, tweets ESPN's Enrique Rojas. The Associated Press first reported the deal (link in Spanish via ESPN).
“Fernando’s pure stuff is top-notch and can beat hitters both in and out of the strike zone,” Rays Executive VP of baseball operations Andrew Friedman said. “We feel he will be able to maximize his ability with us to further strengthen our bullpen.”
Rodney posted a 4.50 ERA with more walks (28) than strikeouts (26) and a 58.4% ground ball rate in 32 innings of work for the Angels in 2011. The 34-year-old has a 4.29 ERA with 8.2 K/9, 4.9 BB/9 and a 49% ground ball rate in nine seasons with the Tigers and Angels. Rodney told the AP that he hopes to compete to be the Rays' closer in 2012 and that he’s feeling good physically and mentally.
Minor Moves: Jacobs, Gaudin, Delaney, Fields, Mather
We'll keep track of today's minor moves right here..
- The Pirates announced that they signed right-hander Logan Kensing to a minor league deal that includes an invitation to Spring Training. The 29-year-old spent the 2011 campaign with the Yankees' top affiliate after recovering from elbow surgery in 2010.
- The Reds signed catchers Brian Esposito and Brian Peacock to minor league deals, tweets Matt Eddy of Baseball America.
- The Tigers signed utility player Eric Patterson to a minor league deal, tweets Eddy.
- The Mets signed right-hander Jeff Stevens and utility player Corey Wimberly to minor league deals, tweets Eddy.
- The A's signed right-handers Travis Schlichting and Merkin Valdez and left-hander Fabio Castro to minor league deals, Eddy tweets.
- The Yankees signed right-hander Adam Miller and outfielders Cole Garner and Dewayne Wise to minor league deals, Eddy tweets.
- The Diamondbacks signed first baseman Mike Jacobs to a minor league deal, tweets Eddy. Before playing, Jacobs still must serve a 50-game suspension for positive a HGH test in August. He was cut by the Rockies following the test.
- The Marlins picked up right-handers Chad Gaudin and Rob Delaney on minor league deals, Eddy tweets. In nine big league seasons, Gaudin has a 4.63 ERA with 7.1 K/9 and 4.2 BB/9. Delaney spent most of 2011 with the Rays' Triple-A affiliate, posting a 1.86 ERA with 7.6 K/9 and 2.3 BB/9.
- The Dodgers signed third baseman Josh Fields, according to Goldstein (via Twitter).
- The Cubs signed Joe Mather as Triple-A outfield insurance, according to Goldstein (via Twitter). Mather spent 36 games on the Braves' major league roster in 2011.
- The Nationals have signed right-hander Dan Cortes, according to Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus (via Twitter).
- Speaking of the Braves, Atlanta released former Rangers draftee Marcus Lemon, Goldstein tweets. Lemon was acquired in a March trade for a PTBNL.
- P.J. Phillips, the younger brother of Brandon Phillips, agreed to a deal with the Reds, tweets Goldstein. The younger Phillips' career never got going due to plate discipline issues.
- The Blue Jays signed former Angels/Braves relief prospect Stephen Marek, Goldstein tweets. The right-hander was outrighted by Atlanta in November and underwent Tommy John surgery in May.
- The White Sox signed 2000 first-round pick Corey Smith, Goldstein tweets. The 29-year-old has never reached the Majors.
Orioles Notes: Jones, Hardy, Fielder, Saunders
Orioles executive VP of baseball operations Dan Duquette recently told Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com that he's not sure if this year's everyday second baseman is currently on the team's roster. The Orioles are also looking for starters and outfielders while considering trades. Here's the latest…
- Talks between the Braves and Orioles about Adam Jones are “nowhere,” according to Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (Twitter links). The Braves won’t trade a top young starter for Jones, so there’s no momentum for a deal. However, talks remain fluid and Martin Prado and Jair Jurrjens could be involved. The Braves are understandably reluctant to part with pitchers such as Brandon Beachy, Mike Minor, Julio Teheran, Arodys Vizcaino and Randall Delgado.
- Shortstop J.J. Hardy said yesterday on the Mid-Atlantic Sports Report that he thinks former teammate Prince Fielder would "help [the Orioles] out a lot," according to Kubatko.
- Free agent lefty Joe Saunders confirmed to Hardy that he’s been in contact with the Orioles recently. Baltimore has interest in Saunders, who could land a multiyear deal.
- Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun doesn't expect former Orioles president of baseball operations Andy MacPhail to take over Joe Torre's recently vacated position at MLB, but he expects the longtime executive will "eventually take a position of significance within the sport."