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Which 2022 Draft Picks Have Teams Gained And Lost From Qualifying Offer Free Agents

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Of the 14 free agents to receive qualifying offers this winter, nine have already figured out where they will be playing next season, leading to some noteworthy adjustments to the 2022 draft order.  For a refresher on the QO rules, you can check this list of what signing a qualifying offer-rejecting free agent would cost each team, or this list of what teams receive as compensation for losing a QO-rejecting free agent.

Or, for simplicity’s sake, you could just read this post right here as a quick summary of the extra picks gained and lost due to these signings.  First of all, four of the nine signed players don’t factor into the discussion, since they are back with their former teams — Brandon Belt accepted the Giants’ qualifying offer in the first place, while Raisel Iglesias re-signed with the Angels, Chris Taylor re-signed with the Dodgers, and Justin Verlander re-signed with the Astros.

For the five other signed QO free agents and the five unsigned QO free agents, here is the breakdown of what their former teams would receive as compensatory picks.  The specific order of the compensatory picks is based on the previous year’s record, so the team with the fewer wins would get the superior pick.

  • Extra pick after Round 1 of the draft: This is awarded to a team that receives revenue-sharing funds, and whose QO-rejecting free agent signs with another team for more than $50MM in guaranteed salary.  The Rockies and Reds would therefore each qualify if Trevor Story (Colorado) or Nick Castellanos (Cincinnati) signed for $50MM+.  Since the Reds had the better record between the two teams, the Rockies would pick 32nd overall and the Reds 33rd overall if both clubs indeed ended up in this same category.  If Story and/or Castellanos signed for less than $50MM, Colorado and/or Cincinnati would be in the next group…
  • Extra pick between Competitive Balance Round B and Round 3: Four picks have already been allotted within this group, comprised of teams who don’t receive revenue sharing funds.  The Mets received an extra selection when Noah Syndergaard signed with the Angels, the Blue Jays received two picks when Marcus Semien signed with the Rangers and Robbie Ray signed with the Mariners, and the Red Sox got a pick when Eduardo Rodriguez signed with the Tigers.  Like Toronto, the Mets could also receive a second pick if Michael Conforto signed elsewhere.  The Braves (Freddie Freeman) and Astros (Carlos Correa) would also land in this category if their respective QO free agents left town.  The draft order of this sandwich round based on 2021 record would line up as Mets (77 wins), Braves (88 wins), Blue Jays (91 wins), Red Sox (92 wins), and Astros (95 wins).  For the moment, the four picks in this group represent the 75th-79th overall selections in the draft, though that specific order will be altered based on where the other QO players sign, or what other second-round picks might be surrendered as penalties for signing those free agents.
  • Extra pick after Round 4: For teams that lose a QO free agent but exceeded the luxury tax threshold in 2021, their compensatory pick is pushed back to beyond the fourth round.  Therefore, this is where the Dodgers will make their extra pick in the wake of Corey Seager’s deal with the Rangers.

Moving on, here is what the four teams who have signed QO free agents had to give up in draft capital…

  • Second-highest 2022 draft pick, $500K in international signing pool money: The Angels didn’t receive revenue sharing funds, and didn’t exceed the luxury tax in 2021.  As a result, signing Syndergaard will cost the Angels their second-round draft selection and a chunk of their funds for the next international signing period.
  • Third-highest 2022 draft pick: The Mariners and Tigers fall into this category, as teams who received revenue sharing payments in 2021.  For Seattle, this is simply their third-round selection.  For Detroit, their “third-highest pick” won’t be determined until MLB establishes the order for this year’s Competitive Balance Draft.  Depending on which of the two CBD rounds the Tigers are drawn into, their cost for the Rodriguez contract could either be their second-rounder or their pick in Competitive Balance Round B.
  • Both their second AND third-highest 2022 draft picks, and $500K in international signing pool money: The Rangers splurged by signing both Seager and Semien, and thus faced twice the draft penalty (both their second-round and third-round picks) for landing a pair of QO free agents.  Texas would have faced the same penalty as the Angels if it had signed just one of Seager or Semien.
  • Second- and fifth-highest 2022 draft picks, $1MM in international signing pool money: The stiffest penalty is reserved for teams who exceeded the luxury tax threshold last season.  Therefore, only the Dodgers and Padres would have to give up multiple picks to sign a single QO free agent, which would surely influence any efforts on their part to pursue Correa, Freeman, Conforto, Story, or Castellanos.

Central Notes: Pirates, Brault, Reds, Lodolo, Guardians, Francona

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The Pirates designated left-hander Steven Brault for assignment before the lockout began, with Brault electing free agency shortly thereafter. The rebuilding club could feasibly re-sign Brault and fit him into their plans for 2022, but Rob Biertempfel of The Athletic doesn’t think that’s likely. He quotes general manager Ben Cherington as saying he’ll “keep the door open” to bringing the lefty back, but that “The health has gotten in the way the last couple of years.”

Brault missed about a month in 2019 with a shoulder strain but managed to stay healthy for the shortened 2020 campaign. Over those two seasons, he threw 156 innings with a 4.67 ERA, seeming like a decent rotation piece for a rebuilding club to have on hand. Unfortunately, 2021 wasn’t kind to the southpaw, as he spent much of the season on the IL and only made seven starts in the big leagues. He’s still only 29 years old, turning 30 in April, meaning another team could give him a chance to log some innings and show his health, even if it might not be the Pirates. He has between four and five years’ service time, which means a team that signs him and sees him round back into form could control him through 2023, as long as the service time rules remain unchanged in the next CBA.

More news from the Central divisions…

  • Much like Brault, Reds prospect Nick Lodolo also had an injury-plagued season in 2021. The 23-year-old was only able to make 13 starts between Double-A and Triple-A this year due to a blister as well as a shoulder strain. However, he seems to be on track for a healthy start to 2022, according to Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer. He spoke to Reds farm director Shawn Pender, who says he reached out to Lodolo about two weeks ago “just to check in, say hello and how are you doing. He says, ’Gosh, I feel great. I guess all that strength and conditioning helped me, and the time off. I feel really up to the task of coming back ready to go,’ so that’s all been positive.” That’s surely good news for Reds fans, as Lodolo could be an important contributor in 2022, if healthy. The 7th overall selection of the 2019 draft, Lodolo is one of the most highly-touted prospects in the game, being ranked as the 89th-best prospect in baseball by FanGraphs, coming in at #31 on MLB Pipeline’s Top 100 and 23rd on Baseball America’s list. The Reds’ rotation has a strong front three in Luis Castillo, Sonny Gray and Tyler Mahle, but all three have been frequently mentioned in trade rumors in recent months, as the Reds are apparently looking to reduce payroll. If those rumors prove true and any of that trio is moved, it would enhance the likelihood of Lodolo being able to make the jump to the big leagues in the coming season.
  • Terry Francona stepped away from his managerial duties in Cleveland at the end of July to undergo a hip replacement and foot surgery, leaving DeMarlo Hale in charge for the latter parts of the 2021 campaign. Paul Hoynes of cleveland.com provides an update, saying that Francona “should be off crutches in the next few weeks.” In September, team president Chris Antonetti said “We continue to plan looking at ’22 with Tito as our manager. If at some point that changes, we’re going to have to reconsider and relook at things at that point.  But we have no reason to think that will be the case.” Based on this most recent update, it appears everything is still on track for Francona to return to health and to the dugout in 2022.

White Sox Sign Brandon Finnegan To Minor League Deal

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The White Sox have signed lefty Brandon Finnegan to a minor league contract.

Chicago will look to unlock Finnegan, who hasn’t appeared in the Majors since 2018. And yet, Finnegan is still just 28 years old. Remember, he debuted with the Royals at the tender age of 21, working out of the bullpen for the Royals as they won the pennant in 2014. He made seven appearances out of the pen during that playoff run.

Finnegan was shipped off the Cincinnati as part of the package for Johnny Cueto the next season, however. He was converted into a full-time starter for the 2016 season, making 31 starts and tossing 172 innings with a 3.98 ERA/5.19 FIP, good for 2.1 rWAR. He made just nine total starts over the next two years, however, and hasn’t returned to the Majors since. From 2014 to 2018, he posted an overall 4.11 ERA/5.12 FIP over 260 2/3 innings with the Royals and Reds.

This past season, Finnegan converted back into a reliever, spending the entire season with the Reds’ Triple-A affiliate in Louisville. Finnegan logged 55 1/3 innings with a 5.53 ERA, never getting a call-up to return to Cincy.

Reds Sign Kyle Dowdy To Minor League Deal

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The Reds have signed right-hander Kyle Dowdy to a minor league contract with an invitation to Major League Spring Training, per a team announcement.

Dowdy, 28, has 22 1/3 innings of big league experience under his belt — all coming with the 2019 Rangers after he’d been plucked from Cleveland in the Rule 5 Draft. He struggled to a 7.25 ERA in that time, however, issuing more walks (18) than strikeouts recorded (17) before being designated for assignment and returned to his original club upon clearing waivers.

This past season, Dowdy spent the year in Triple-A Columbus, where he worked to a 4.80 ERA with a 23.1% strikeout rate against an ugly 14.6% walk rate. The righty does average better than 95 mph on his heater, and he posted a respectable 12.1% swinging-strike rate in Triple-A this past season.

From a results standpoint, Dowdy’s numbers don’t stand out, but the raw stuff has been intriguing enough for the Indians to trade for him in 2018 and for two teams to take a look at him during his Rule 5 season; the Mets first selected Dowdy in the Rule 5 Draft, and Texas picked him up on waivers after he was cut from Mets camp near the end of Spring Training.

Should The Reds Let The Moose Loose?

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After coming up short in this year’s Wild Card race, the Reds’ offseason has mostly continued along sour lines for the team’s fans. On the first day of the offseason, Tucker Barnhart was sent packing to Detroit. Shortly after that, GM Nick Krall said that the club “must align our payroll to our resources,” seemingly forecasting a gloomy winter of budget cuts in Cincinnati. That was followed by Nick Castellanos opting out of his contract and rejecting a qualifying offer. Then, Wade Miley was claimed on waivers by the division-rival Cubs, despite Miley having a $10MM club option for 2022 — an eminently reasonable salary for a pitcher who was worth 2.9 fWAR (per FanGraphs) or 5.6 bWAR (according to Baseball Reference).

In the four weeks since that time, all of the rumours surrounding the club have been about other teams circling their rotation like vultures, trying to acquire Luis Castillo, Sonny Gray or Tyler Mahle. It’s fairly logical that teams would come calling for those three talented arms, as they all come with two years of inexpensive control and pitching is simply always in demand. However, if you’re the Reds and you want to shave money off your payroll, a preferable option might be someone whose name hasn’t come up in trade rumors at all: Mike Moustakas.

“Moose” has two years remaining on the four-year, $64MM deal he signed two years ago, then the largest free agent signing in Reds franchise history. (That mark was tied the following month with the deal for Castellanos.) Moustakas will make $16MM in 2022, $18MM in 2023 and then Cincinnati holds a $20MM club option for 2024 that comes with a $4MM buyout.

That $16MM salary for 2022 makes him the second-highest paid player on team, trailing only Joey Votto. Moving that contract could therefore save about as much money as moving two of their three in-demand starters, given that Gray will be making $10.7 million this year, and Castillo and Mahle are projected to earn arbitration salaries of $7.6MM and $5.6MM, respectively. It also makes sense to move Moustakas given that his incumbent position of second base has been taken over by Jonathan India, who had a breakout season in 2021, earning himself the NL Rookie of the Year award in the process.

The trouble for Cincy is that trading Moustakas now would be selling low, as he just had an injury-ravaged campaign that was his worst in years, maybe the worst of his career. The infielder made multiple trips to the injured list due to issues with his heel, resulting in 62 games and 206 plate appearance. Even when he could take the field, Moustakas didn’t look like his old self. From 2015 to 2020, Moustakas hit .262/.326/.490, which amounts to a wRC+ of 113 and 12.5 fWAR. In 2021, he slashed a meager .208/.282/.372, producing a wRC+ of 70 and negative 0.4 fWAR — both career worsts.

Trading players when their value is low is generally unwise strategy, but for a Reds team on a limited budget, it might be the least-bad option they have. On paper, they currently have a platoon at third base, with Moustakas sharing time with Eugenio Suarez. However, Suarez is also coming off a down season and doesn’t have injuries to blame for it (although he could blame the team’s ill-advised attempts to turn him into a shortstop at the age of 29). Suarez has three years and $35MM left on his deal, with a salary of $11.3MM in 2022. That means the club currently has over $27MM dedicated to third base, between Suarez and Moustakas. For a club looking to cut costs, that seems even less wise than trading low on one of them.

Despite coming off a terrible campaign, it’s not out of the realm of possibility that another club could see the reasons for optimism. At 33, Moustakas is not too old to return to his previous form, as evidenced by his teammate Votto, who just had a tremendous year in his age-37 season. If he can return to health, he could be seen as an intriguing buy-low candidate. However, would a team give up anything of value for Moustakas while Kyle Seager is just sitting there on the open market?

Seager is less than a year older than Moustakas, has never had serious injury issues, and MLBTR predicts Seager for a deal in the range of two years and $24MM. Brad Miller, Josh Harrison or Jonathan Villar represent even less-expensive third base options on the open market. Win-now teams would also presumably be more interested in a trade candidate like Matt Chapman, assuming Oakland follows through on their planned selloff.

That means the Reds would almost certainly have to sweeten the pot of any Moose-based deal, perhaps including prospects. For a recent example, the Brewers recently traded Jackie Bradley Jr., who was also coming off arguably the worst season of his career. They had to include a pair of prospects, but still got a useful player out of the deal in the form of Hunter Renfroe.

The Reds’ front office seems to be stuck between a rock and a hard place, as while they weren’t good enough in 2021 and need to improve, they haven’t been given enough money from ownership to do so. On the other hand, Cincinnati also has too much young talent to go into a full rebuild, with India, Tyler Stephenson, Vladimir Gutierrez, Lucas Sims, Jose Barrero, Hunter Greene and Nick Lodolo forming a nice core of cheap and controllable players, alongside veterans like Votto, Suarez, Jesse Winker, and the rotation trio of Castillo, Gray and Mahle. Finding a version of the Renfroe trade could be their best path to supplementing a talented roster, instead of subtracting from it by trading one of their starting pitchers.

Perhaps a team like the Nationals would be interested in Moustakas and a couple of prospects? After all, they’ve just undergone a big selloff and seem unlikely to be aggressive in returning to contention in the short term. After running payrolls near $200MM in many recent years, the Nats are only projected at $118MM for 2022, according to Jason Martinez of Roster Resource. They could easily take on the $16MM owed to Moose and have him off the books by their last year of control over Juan Soto in 2024. Moustakas would also give Washington a fallback option in the event Carter Kieboom continues with his struggles at the MLB level.

The Diamondbacks have a tall hill to climb in order to return to being competitive, as they are staring up at the Dodgers, Giants and Padres. They only have about $85MM on the books for 2022, per Martinez, but have had payrolls in the range of $130MM in recent years, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. They currently have Josh Rojas penciled in at third base, but he’s actually played at second more often so far. If the long-rumored Ketel Marte trade ever comes to fruition, Rojas could take over at second with Moose at third.

The Rockies are interested in adding a third baseman, as evidenced by their rumored interest in Kris Bryant. But if Bryant goes elsewhere, why not take on Moustakas and hope that he can use the Colorado air to get back into a groove at the plate? As notable as Moustakas’ salary is, his $16MM figure is certainly lower than what Bryant will earn in free agency.

And let’s not discount the possibility of a competitive team believing enough in a Moustakas bounceback to look for this kind of a deal. After all, the Red Sox just made it at far as the ALCS in 2021, but they’re now taking on extra prospects and crossing their fingers in the hope of Bradley rebounding from a brutal offensive year.  Bradley comes with a higher floor than Moustakas because of his excellent glovework, but still, the logic is similar. Buy low on a big leaguer and make a wish, while filling out your team’s prospect pipeline. Even if the Reds can’t get themselves an exciting return on a deal like this, the real return would be hanging onto Castillo, Gray and Mahle for another couple of runs at the NL Central while the Pirates and Cubs are retooling.

Christian Colon Retires

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Former major league infielder Christian Colon is set to retire from baseball, MLBTR has learned. He will hang up his spikes after playing in the big leagues for three different teams across six seasons.  Colon hopes to continue his life in baseball as a coach and one day manage in the big leagues.

Colon was selected by the Padres in the 10th round of the 2007 draft, out of Canyon High School in Anaheim, California. Just 18 years old at the time, Colon instead opted to attend California State University, Fullerton. Three years later, in the 2010 draft, the Kansas City Royals selected Colon in the first round, fourth overall.

The Royals were deep in the midst of a rebuild at the time, with 2010 marking their seventh consecutive losing season, in what would eventually be a nine-year streak. Those poor big league results allowed the team to have a series of high draft picks, which they used to launch a return to competition. Alex Gordon, Luke Hochevar, Mike Moustakas, Eric Hosmer, Mike Montgomery and Colon were all first-round selections of the Royals between 2005 and 2010. All of that group except for Montgomery eventually formed the core of the Royals club that made the World Series in consecutive years, losing to the Giants in 2014 and defeating the Mets in 2015. (Montgomery contributed indirectly, as he was part of the trade with the Rays that sent James Shields and Wade Davis to Kansas City.)

Colon climbed the ranks of the Royals’ farm system, eventually making his debut in 2014. He got into 21 games that year, hitting .333/.375/.489 over 49 plate appearances. He only got a couple of plate appearances in that 2014 postseason run for the Royals, both of which came in the Wild Card Game against the Athletics. He entered as a pinch-hitter in the tenth, laying down a successful sacrifice bunt. He stayed in the game and, after Oakland took the lead in the top of the 12th, Colon hit a game-tying single in the bottom of the inning. Moments later, Colon would score the game-winning run on Salvador Perez’s walk-off hit.

In 2015, Colon got 119 plate appearances over 43 games, hitting .290/.356/.336. As the Royals reached the fifth game of the World Series with a 3-1 series lead, Colon hadn’t had a plate appearance in four weeks. As the game stretched into extras, the Royals called on Colon to pinch-hit for the pitcher’s spot in the top of the 12th. With Jarrod Dyson on second base, Colon lined a single into left, giving the Royals a 3-2 lead. They would eventually pour it on and win the game 7-2, and capturing their first World Series title since 1985.

Colon would go on to play for the Marlins and Reds in the Majors, spending most of 2021 at Triple-A for the Blue Jays.  In total, Colon played 161 games over his six seasons and hit .254/.315/.378. He played an important role in building the Kansas City team that eventually won the World Series, and can look back fondly on his postseason heroics. MLBTR congratulates Colon on a fine career and wishes him all the best in his future endeavors.

Reds Sign Five Players To Minor League Deals

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The Reds announced last night, before the MLB implemented a lockout, that they had signed five players to minor league deals. They are right-handed pitchers Brandon Bailey and Trey Wingenter, catcher/infielder Andrew Knapp, outfielder Trey Amburgey and infielder/outfielder Allen Cordoba. All five have received invitations to spring training.

Knapp, 30, had been with the Phillies since they selected him in the 2013 draft, seeing MLB action in each of the past five seasons, largely in a reserve capacity. He had a tremendous showing in the shortened 2020 campaign, hitting .278/.404/.444 in 33 games. However, he crashed back to earth in 2021, slashing .152/.215/.214  in 62 games. He was outrighted by the Phillies at the end of the season and elected free agency. The Reds will likely use Tyler Stephenson as their everyday catcher, but after trading Tucker Barnhart to Detroit, there’s room for Knapp to jump into a backup role.

Wingenter, 27, showed some promise out of the Padres’ bullpen in 2018 and 2019. Over those two seasons, he pitched 70 innings, with an ERA of 5.14. His tremendous strikeout rate of 33.1% was offset by a bloated 13% walk rate. He underwent Tommy John surgery in July of 2020 and has been mostly out of action since, though he did get into a handful of Complex League games in August of this year. The Padres non-tendered him earlier this week.

Bailey, 27, was initially acquired by the Reds from the Astros in a 2020 trade. He pitched 7 1/3 innings for the Astros at the MLB level that year, his only big league experience to date. In 2019, he pitched 92 2/3 innings at the Double-A level with an ERA of 3.30. He underwent Tommy John surgery in February of this year and missed the entire season. He was non-tendered earlier in the week, with his return on a minor league deal reported at that time.

Amburgey, 27, was selected by the Yankees in the 13th round of the 2015 draft. He made his major league debut this season but was only given four plate appearances in two games. In 71 Triple-A games in 2021, he hit .276/.337/.475, but with a concerning strikeout rate of 28.1%.

Cordoba, who turns 26 in a few days, was a Rule 5 selection of the Padres in 2016 and stayed on the roster for all of the 2017 season. He was only 21 years old at the time and had never played above Rookie ball. He hit .208/.282/.297 that year in 100 MLB games. Since that time, he’s played in the minors for the Padres, spending 2021 at Double-A, hitting .299/.392/.446. He was outrighted off San Diego’s roster last week.

Front Office/Coaching Notes: Astros, Brewers, Padres, Reds

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Some recent front office and coaching moves around baseball…

  • Sara Goodrum, believed to be the first woman in Major League history to hold the role of minor league hitting coordinator, will leave the Brewers to become the Astros’ director of player development, according to MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy.  She’ll follow a pair of path-breaking women — Marlins GM Kim Ng and Orioles director of baseball development Eve Rosenbaum — who’ve been hired to prominent front office roles. While her elevation to her new role represents another in a series of major steps forward for women in Major League Baseball, Goodrum is also one of several other women employed by teams in coaching roles in recent years.
  • The Padres have hired longtime big-league catcher Francisco Cervelli as their new catching instructor.  The thirty-five-year-old Cervelli, who posted a solid .268/.358/.382 batting line across parts of thirteen seasons with the Yankees, Pirates, Braves, and Marlins, will take over for Rod Barajas. Barajas, also a former catcher, had been in the Padres organization since 2014, amassing a 1-7 record as interim Padres manager for the last eight games of 2019, following the firing of Andy Green.  A veteran of 13 big league seasons, Cervelli will now be overseeing a crowded catching situation in San Diego.  The Padres acquired backstop Jorge Alfaro from the Marlins Tuesday to supplement a group headed by incumbents Austin Nola and Victor Caratini.
  • The Reds announced a series of coaching changes Monday.  Former Astros farmhand Rolando Valles has been promoted from major league associate coach to major league assistant coach.  Kyle Arnsberg, the game-planning coach for Double-A Chattanooga, was also promoted to an assistant coach role on the MLB staff.  Former Vanderbilt infielder Joel McKeithan has been named a major league assistant hitting coach and offensive coordinator.  Bullpen catcher Nate Irving has taken over Arnsberg’s old role in Chattanooga, where he’ll also serve as the bench coach.

Reds Have Had Recent Trade Talks Regarding Castillo, Gray, Mahle

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TODAY: The Rangers are one of the teams who have spoken to the Reds about their starters, according to Jon Morosi (via Twitter).

NOVEMBER 29: The Reds have had talks with multiple teams about starting pitchers Tyler Mahle, Sonny Gray, and Luis Castillo, reports MLB.com’s Jon Morosi (via Twitter). Cincinnati has reportedly been open to dealing starting pitchers for weeks now, but Morosi suggests there have been recent discussions on all three from that trio.

Either Mahle (who has two years of control remaining after a breakout 2021) or Gray (who’s under contract for $10.2MM in 2022, with a $12MM club option for 2023) would figure to cost significantly less in prospect capital than would Castillo, whom Cincinnati is said to be loath to deal. Like Mahle, Castillo has two years of club control remaining. However, he also has a longer track record of consistent high-end production than Mahle, and he’s three years younger and less expensive than Gray, who is playing out the final two years of a contract extennsion.

An earlier report by Morosi had linked the Angels to Castillo, though he described those talks as “preliminary.” MLB Network’s Jon Heyman tweets, however, that the Angels are at the “forefront” of the Castillo push, even as the Reds have told opposing GMs they prefer to hang onto their top starter.

Just how high a price Reds GM Nick Krall is asking for Castillo remains to be seen, but any team that’s come calling will have expected it to be high. In what was actually one of his lesser statistical seasons, Castillo posted a 3.98 ERA (3.75 FIP) across 187 2/3 innings against a career ERA of 3.72 (3.76 FIP) in parts of five major league seasons — all of which were spent playing his home games in the hitter-friendly confines of Cincinnati’s Great American Ball Park. He’s also been remarkably durable, taking the ball at least 31 times in each of his full seasons (and 12 times in the pandemic-shortened 2020 season).

Castillo also closed out the year in particularly impressive fashion, recovering from an ugly April/May showing to post a 2.73 ERA and 3.34 FIP over his final 135 1/3 frames. Combine that with an eminently reasonable $7.6MM projected salary in arbitration (via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz) and an additional year of club control, through the 2023 season, and it’s easy to see why the ask on Castillo would be sky-high.

The 32-year-old Gray, meanwhile, is plenty affordable in his own right. He hasn’t replicated the 2015 form that saw him finish third in AL Cy Young voting and may never reach that level again, but the right-hander has strongly bounced back from a poor showing with the Yankees that prompted his trade to Cincinnati.

In three years with the Reds, Gray carries a 3.49 ERA with a 28.5% strikeout rate that trounces the 20.9% mark he posted in his pre-Reds career. Last season’s 4.19 ERA was more solid than stellar, clearly, but Gray was also among the best in the game in terms of limiting hard contact. Most fielding-independent metrics feel he was quite a bit better than that baseline ERA indicates.

Mahle doesn’t carry the name value that his teammates do — but he’s developed into a quality mid-rotation arm over the past two seasons. Through his past 227 2/3 frames at the MLB level, Mahle owns a 3.72 ERA with an impressive 28.1% strikeout rate against a respectable 8.9% walk rate. Walks and home runs have both been issues at times in his career, but he posted solid marks in both categories over the past two seasons — and one would imagine that a move away from Cincinnati’s Great American Ball Park could also have a beneficial impact on his home-run rate.

Swartz projects a $5.6MM salary for Mahle, so any team acquiring him would have to figure it’s picking up two years of Mahle for under a total of $15MM in salary. There’s quite a bit of surplus value there, making Mahle a more enticing trade option than most would expect. Mahle turned 27 at the end of September, so he’ll pitch nearly all of the 2022 season at that age. Teams will likely view him as a pitcher whose stock is on the rise, and some may even have designs on extending him after a trade, given his age and recent strides.

National League Non-Tenders: 11/30/21

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We’ve now passed the deadline for teams to tender contracts to pre-arb and arbitration-eligible players. We’ll keep track of the more minor players non-tendered in the National League here. The American League non-tenders are available at this link.

As a reminder, you can view MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz’s projected salaries for arbitration-eligible players here:

  • The Cardinals announced they’ve non-tendered utilityman José Rondon. The right-handed hitting infielder tallied 90 plate appearances this past season while suiting up at a handful of position.
  • The Giants announced they’ve non-tendered outfielder Luis González, right-hander Sam Delaplane and southpaw Joe Palumbo. None of that trio was arbitration-eligible, and all three were recently acquired via minor transactions. It wouldn’t be a surprise if San Francisco attempts to work out minor league pacts with one or more of that group now that they’ve been removed from the 40-man roster.
  • The Phillies have non-tendered southpaw Kyle Dohy and re-signed him to a minor league contract, per a team announcement. He’ll remain in the organization but no longer occupies a spot on the 40-man roster. Dohy made on major league appearance in 2021.
  • The Padres announced they’ve non-tendered relievers José Castillo, Trey Wingenter, and Matt Strahm. Castillo and Wingenter haven’t pitched since 2019 because of arm injuries that necessitated Tommy John surgeries. Strahm was limited to just 6 2/3 frames in 2021 by health issues himself.
  • The Cubs are non-tendering reliever Jason Adam, reports Robert Murray of FanSided. The southpaw missed much of the season after suffering a gruesome ankle fracture in Triple-A in May, but he made a triumphant late-season return to the big leagues. Adam ultimately tossed 10 2/3 innings over 12 outings. Chicago also announced they’ve non-tendered outfielder Michael Hermosillo, who made a late-season appearance on the big league roster.
  • The Mets have non-tendered outfielder Mark Payton, per a club announcement. The left-handed hitter was acquired from the Reds midseason but never suited up for New York at the major league level.
  • The Reds have non-tendered righty Brandon Bailey, per a team announcement. The 27-year-old made five appearances with the Astros in 2020. He missed all of 2021 recovering from Tommy John surgery, the second such procedure of his career. Bailey is re-signing on a minor league deal with a Spring Training invitation but will no longer occupy a spot on the 40-man roster, reports C. Trent Rosecrans of the Athletic.
  • The Nationals announced three non-tenders: relievers Wander Suero and Ryne Harper and first baseman Mike Ford. Suero is the most notable of the group, having been an effective set-up option at times during his four-season run in D.C. He struggled to a 6.33 ERA across 42 2/3 innings in 2021, though.
  • The Mets have non-tendered reliever Stephen Nogosek, reports Robert Murray of FanSided (on Twitter). The right-hander made just one three-inning appearance at the big league level in 2021. He worked 35 innings of 5.14 ERA ball with Triple-A Syracuse.
  • The Diamondbacks are non-tendering reliever Taylor Clarke, reports Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic (on Twitter). The 28-year-old has pitched with the D-Backs in each of the past three seasons. The left-hander worked to a 4.98 ERA over 43 1/3 innings this past season, showing solid control but posting a 20.1% strikeout rate that was about four percentage points below the league average mark for bullpen arms.
  • The Dodgers have non-tendered southpaw Andrew Vasquez, tweets Fabian Ardaya of the Athletic. Vasquez wasn’t eligible for arbitration, but Los Angeles decided to bump him off the 40-man roster without placing him on waivers. Acquired in a minor trade with the Twins, Vasquez made two appearances for the Dodgers in early September. The 28-year-old struck out a massive 37.4% of batters faced in Triple-A in 2021.
  • The Pirates have non-tendered right-hander Chad Kuhl, reports Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette (Twitter link). A productive back-of-the-rotation arm at times, Kuhl has developed escalating control problems over the past couple seasons. The 29-year-old throws in the mid-90s and has posted decent strikeout numbers, but he’s coming off a 4.82 ERA/4.89 SIERA over 28 appearances (including 14 starts)
  • The Mets have non-tendered reliever Robert Gsellman, reports Tim Healey of Newsday (on Twitter). The right-hander has appeared with New York in each of the past six seasons, moving to the bullpen full-time in 2018. While Gsellman showed quite a bit of promise over seven starts as a rookie, he’s yet to find much consistent success in the years since. The 28-year-old did manage a solid 3.77 ERA with a 49.5% ground-ball rate over 28 2/3 innings in 2021, but he also missed a couple months because of a lat strain and only punched out 14.3% of batters faced.
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