Mariners Rumors

Giants Claim Jose Godoy From Mariners

By Mark Polishuk | March 13, 2022 at 3:50pm CDT

The Giants have claimed catcher Jose Godoy off waivers from the Mariners, as announced by both clubs. Godoy made his MLB debut last season, appearing in 16 games with Seattle and receiving 40 plate appearances.

With Buster Posey now enjoying retirement, the Giants are heading into the 2022 season with star prospect Joey Bart set to take a larger share of duties behind the plate, and veteran Curt Casali is still on hand to either work in a timeshare with Bart or in a backup capacity. San Francisco was lacking, however, in any other catchers with Major League experience, so while Godoy doesn’t have a lengthy big league resume, he can still provide the Giants with some depth at the Triple-A level.

An international signing for the Cardinals back in 2011, Godoy had spent his entire career in the St. Louis farm system before inking a minor league deal with the Mariners last winter. Godoy has hit .276/.357/.366 over his 2063 career PA in the minors, with his offensive production slightly ticking upward over the last couple of seasons, though that could also be a function of Godoy being a slightly older player (he turned 27 in October) playing against generally younger competition.

Latest On Seiya Suzuki’s Market

By Anthony Franco | March 11, 2022 at 8:45pm CDT

Star NPB outfielder Seiya Suzuki waited out the lockout in search of a deal with an MLB team this offseason. The league and Players Association agreed to freeze his posting window during the work stoppage. The official lifting of the lockout restarted the clock, giving teams twenty days to finalize an agreement.

Suzuki has reportedly drawn interest from upwards of a dozen teams this winter, and Jon Heyman of the MLB Network lists five (via Twitter) that have been prominent players: the Mariners, Giants, Dodgers, Cubs and Red Sox. That’s not necessarily a group of finalists, to be clear, but it seems those teams are among Suzuki’s top suitors.

Four of those clubs — Seattle, San Francisco, Chicago and Boston — have been known entrants in the bidding for some time. A report from Japan’s Nikkan Sports in January named the four clubs as among those likely to remain factors until he chooses a destination. The Dodgers, though, hadn’t been strongly linked to Suzuki until this point.

Los Angeles doesn’t necessarily have a need in the outfield. Mookie Betts, Cody Bellinger and AJ Pollock make for a strong starting trio, and Chris Taylor and Gavin Lux could see some action on the grass as well. The Dodgers haven’t been shy about acquiring talent even in the absence of an obvious weakness on the roster, however. And Los Angeles is clearly open to further bolstering an already strong offense, as they’re reportedly making a run at Freddie Freeman. Manager Dave Roberts isn’t afraid to move even his best players around the diamond, and the implementation of the universal designated hitter could allow NL teams to cast a wider net in search of talent.

With a little under three weeks before Suzuki has to make a decision, there still seems to be a decent array of possible landing spots. Only 27 years old, Suzuki should appeal both to win-now clubs like the Dodgers and teams (the Cubs perhaps among them) that are eyeing 2023 and beyond as more realistic windows of contention. He’s coming off a monstrous .317/.433/.639 showing with the Hiroshima Carp, for whom he’s been a strong middle-of-the-order bat in recent years. Evaluators with whom MLBTR spoke earlier in the offseason generally suggested Suzuki could immediately be a solid everyday right fielder in MLB.

Whoever signs Suzuki will owe the Carp a posting fee on top of the guarantee that goes to the player himself. The fee is calculated as 20% of the contract’s first $25MM, 17.5% of the next $25MM and 15% of any dollars thereafter.

Latest On Carlos Correa

By Darragh McDonald | February 26, 2022 at 10:56am CDT

Going into the offseason, there were many parallels between the top two free agents, Carlos Correa and Corey Seager. Both were shortstops reaching free agency at the age of 27 and coming off excellent platform seasons. Seager, along with agent Scott Boras, secured a ten-year, $325MM contract from the Rangers prior to the lockout. Correa, however, did not sign before transactions were frozen and then hired the Boras corporation to represent him in January. Once the lockout is lifted, his continued search for a contract will be one of the top storylines to follow. Joel Sherman of the New York Post takes a look at some of the options, including the Dodgers, Yankees, Blue Jays, Tigers and Cubs, while Ken Rosenthal and Corey Brock of The Athletic, look into the fit with the Red Sox and Mariners, respectively.

The Dodgers, of course, had Seager as their shortstop in recent years and just saw him depart for the Rangers. The expectation has been that they were comfortable enough with that loss because they could rely on Trea Turner to take over at short. If the Dodgers were to then pivot to Correa, however, that would likely involve Turner moving over to second base, much like he did when he and Seager were on the roster together after he was acquired from the Nationals at last year’s trade deadline. Since Turner is just one year away from free agency, signing a long-term deal with Correa could be a way to proactively address the shortstop void one year before it’s absolutely necessary. This scenario seems to have been already considered by the Dodgers’ brass, as Sherman reports that they offered Seager a $275MM deal before he signed with the Rangers. However, he also notes that it might not be as simple as swapping Correa in for Seager, as Correa’s role in the Astros’ sign-stealing scandal might not go over so well with fans of the Dodgers, since they were defeated by that now-infamous team in the 2017 World Series.

That same issue is present with another reported suitor, the Yankees, as they were felled by the Astros in the 2017 ALCS. But Yankees’ general manager Brian Cashman has previously stated that the reaction of the fans “is not going to enter my calculus right now.” Since Gleyber Torres was moved to second base last year, it was expected that the Yankees would be major players in this year’s shortstop market. However, they may be willing to eschew a big splash, preferring to target a short-term stopgap option to hold down the position until it’s taken over by one of their prospects, either Oswald Peraza or Anthony Volpe. It’s also possible that this is merely a posture for negotiating purposes and that the club may emerge as a genuine suitor for Correa. Jon Heyman of MLB Network tweets that they did check in with Correa prior to the lockout, but seemed to prefer Seager. Since Correa was reportedly looking for a contract slightly above what Seager eventually got, it may be difficult for a deal to come together.

The Blue Jays have less of an obvious need for Correa, given the presence of Bo Bichette at short. Sherman opines that the club could sign Correa and then bump Bichette to either second or third, but then downplays the possibility of them dishing out a contract nearing Correa’s asking price. Given the fact that they were reportedly in the mix for Seager prior to the lockout, the possibility can’t be ruled out entirely. The sign-stealing situation clearly isn’t an issue for the Jays, as they’ve already signed George Springer, Correa’s teammate in Houston. But even if they do have the payroll to make a big splash after the lockout, they may use it to make a run at Freddie Freeman instead.

The Tigers have long been considered a speculative fit for Correa, given the fact that their manager is A.J. Hinch, who previously managed Correa in Houston. However, they already made a big investment at shortstop when they signed Javier Baez prior to the lockout. Although Baez played some second base with the Mets last year in deference to Francisco Lindor and could theoretically do the same again, it still would be shocking to see them double down in such an aggressive fashion. Sherman also speculates that the Cubs could be a dark horse here. The club was primarily focused on tearing down last year, trading away most of the core pieces from their previous competitive window, including Baez, Kris Bryant and Anthony Rizzo. Since the offseason began, they have been surprisingly active in making additions, bringing on Marcus Stroman, Yan Gomes and Wade Miley. However, those players were all brought aboard with short-term commitments and pivoting to the type of lengthy deal that would be required to sign Correa seems unlikely at this stage.

As for the Red Sox, Rosenthal lays out a scenario where Correa takes over as their shortstop given that his defense is far superior to that of Xander Bogaerts, who could be shuffled over to second base. However, he also points out that, given the lockout-shortened Spring Training to come, there will be less time for Bogaerts to develop his skills at a new position than there would be in a more normal year, perhaps making the plan too awkward to implement successfully. After this season, Bogaerts can opt-out of the three years and $60MM that will be remaining on his contract, something that he seems likely to do if he has another healthy and productive season. Signing Correa now could be a way for Boston to preemptively replace Bogaerts, but as Rosenthal points out, the club hasn’t signed a free agent contract larger than $14MM since Chaim Bloom became the club’s chief baseball officer. Suddenly dropping $300MM on the table would be a huge departure in strategy. However, it’s exactly because of that avoidance of significant commitments that the club’s future payroll is fairly blank. If Bogaerts does indeed opt out after this season, that would leave Chris Sale as the only serious commitment on the books.

For the Mariners, Brock doesn’t believe it likely that there’s a match here. However, he points out that, if Correa is interested in going to Seattle, they have the money to make it happen. The club’s payroll for the year is currently around $87MM, in the estimation of Jason Martinez of Roster Resource. From 2015 to 2019, the club’s annual budget hovered in the $120-160MM range, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. That leaves plenty of breathing room, if the club is willing to push up to those spending levels again in an attempt to build on last year’s 90-win campaign. The team’s president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto previously stated that the club wouldn’t supplant J.P. Crawford as the team’s shortstop, but it’s hard to imagine that strategy is so etched in stone that they wouldn’t consider adding a talent like Correa if the stars aligned for them to do so.

Clearly, there are many ways Correa’s market could play out once the lockout ends. With the freezing of transactions and contract negotiations, we can’t really know the intentions of any of these parties until that ice breaks and dominos start falling again. Due to the compressed timeline that will eventually exist between the signing of a new CBA and the start of the season, this will all have to play out in an expedited fashion. And with Boras also representing many other high-profile free agents like Bryant, Nick Castellanos, Michael Conforto, Carlos Rodon and more, that figures to make the situation all the more frenzied.

Mariners Notes: Festa, Cruz, Cameron

By Anthony Franco | February 26, 2022 at 9:23am CDT

Mariners reliever Matt Festa underwent Tommy John surgery in March 2020, just a few weeks after Seattle outrighted him off their 40-man roster. As is typically the case for TJS patients, he lost around a year and a half rehabbing and didn’t return to minor league games action until last July. The righty had an excellent second half with Triple-A affiliate Tacoma, working to a 2.95 ERA over 21 1/3 innings. He punched out a whopping 36% of batters faced while walking a minuscule 3.5% of opponents, but that wasn’t enough to earn another look in a Seattle bullpen that was among the league’s best.

Because he’s no longer on the 40-man roster, Festa is not subject to the ongoing lockout. Ryan Divish of The Seattle Times writes that he’s been participating in Seattle’s minor league camp and flashed mid-90s fastball velocity in workouts this week. If he maintains that form throughout camp, he could be an option for Seattle in the event of injuries or underperformance among the big league relievers. Festa, 29 next month, posted a 4.70 ERA/4.97 SIERA over 30 2/3 big league innings between 2018-19. He’ll need to recapture a spot on the 40-man roster to get back to the MLB level.

Julio Cruz Passes Away

By Steve Adams | February 23, 2022 at 1:19pm CDT

Former Mariners and White Sox second baseman Julio Cruz passed away this week, per an announcement from the Mariners. Cruz, who followed a 10-year playing career with a lengthy career as a Spanish-language broadcaster for the Mariners, was 67 years of age. His family said via a statement that he “passed away peacefully” at home yesterday while “surrounded by his loving family.”

“The Seattle Mariners were saddened to learn of the passing of former Mariners second baseman and current broadcaster Julio Cruz,” the team said in its own statement announcing Cruz’s passing. “Our thoughts and sympathies are with his loved ones, including his wife, Mojgan, three sons, Austin, Alexander and Jourdan, and their families.”

A member of the Mariners’ inaugural roster in 1977, Cruz hit .256/.336/.296 as a rookie that season before stepping up and solidifying himself as a regular in 1978. While power was never his calling card, Cruz averaged 50 stolen bases per year from 1978-83, swiping bags at an outstanding 83.5% success rate along the way. He was the Mariners’ all-time leader in steals prior to being overtaken by future Hall of Famer Ichiro Suzuki, and Cruz still ranks second all-time in franchise history in that regard.

Traded to the White Sox in a 1983 deal that sent fellow second baseman Tony Bernazard back to Seattle, Cruz went on to spend parts of four seasons with the South Siders, for whom he swiped another 53 bags in 72 tries. All told, Cruz logged 1156 games in the Majors over a decade-long career and batted .237/.321/.299 with 23 home runs, 113 doubles, 27 triples, 343 stolen bases, 557 runs scored and 279 runs knocked in. He went 4-for-12 with a pair of steals for the ChiSox in their 1983 ALCS loss to the Orioles — his only postseason experience over that ten-year stretch in the big leagues.

“The ’Cruzer’ was the catalyst of that 1983 Western Division championship team,” White Sox owner Jerry Reinsdorf said in a statement today. “When Roland Hemond acquired him that summer, the team just took off. Julio became our igniter, and his positive energy was contagious in the clubhouse, in the dugout and on the field. Sox fans will always remember him dashing across home plate with the division-clinching run. The White Sox organization sends its heartfelt condolences to Julio’s family and many friends.”

Cruz’s final pro season came back in 1988, but he ultimately returned to the Mariners in 2003, joining their Spanish-language broadcast team — a role he held up through the 2021 season. He also took pride in charitable work in Seattle, as the Mariners further noted in their statement on his passing:

“Cruz remained deeply involved in youth baseball and other community causes, including Toys for Kids, and breast & prostate cancer awareness. In 2016, he was recognized as the Mariners’ first-ever SEAT 21 honoree. SEAT 21 was created by Major League Baseball to recognize community members who embody Roberto Clemente’s humanitarian spirit.”

We at MLB Trade Rumors offer condolences to the friends, family, loved ones and fans of Cruz, as well as to both the Mariners and White Sox organizations as they mourn his loss.

Read The Transcript Of Our Chat With Former MLB Pitcher Christian Bergman

By Tim Dierkes | February 23, 2022 at 10:59am CDT

Drafted by the Rockies out of UC Irvine in the 24th round in 2010, righty Christian Bergman won California League Pitcher of the Year honors in 2012. By June 2014, he was on the mound at Coors Field starting against the Braves. He provided the Rockies six strong innings in his debut, punching out the likes of Justin Upton and Jason Heyward among others. Bergman was able to give the Rockies five-plus innings in all but one of his ten starts for Colorado as a rookie, including five times at Coors.

Bergman displayed excellent control throughout his five-year MLB career, walking only 5.2% of batters. After making 10 starts as a rookie in 2014, Bergman spent most of his career working in relief for the Rockies and Mariners, making the occasional spot start. He finest start may have been a May 2017 outing against the Athletics, in which he took a no-hitter into the fifth inning, pitched into the eighth, and finished with nine punchouts and no runs allowed. Two starts later, he put up seven scoreless against the Red Sox at Fenway Park. In his career, Bergman struck out such hitters as Mike Trout, Joe Mauer, and Paul Goldschmidt – three times apiece. In 2018 against his former team at Coors as a member of the Mariners, Bergman smacked a single into center field for his lone career RBI.

After retiring from baseball, Christian started his own company that owns and operates multifamily real estate in Phoenix. After reading our chat with a former teammate of his, Tyler Danish, Christian reached out to see about chatting with MLBTR readers himself. We were happy to host him, and he had a lot of interesting, honest things to say. Click here to read the transcript, and follow Christian on Instagram here!

Oliver Perez Announces Plans To Retire After Playing 2022 Season In Mexican League

By Anthony Franco | February 21, 2022 at 10:11pm CDT

Longtime major league pitcher Oliver Pérez will retire after playing out the 2022 season with the Toros de Tijuana of the Mexican League, the Toros announced (on Twitter) last week. When the 40-year-old does officially step away, it’ll mark the end of a professional career that spanned over two decades.

He began that run in April 1999, signing with the Padres as an amateur free agent out of Mexico. He spent the next few seasons ascending the minor league ladder, reaching the majors before his 21st birthday in 2002. He spent around a year with the Friars before they shipped him alongside Jason Bay to the Pirates for Brian Giles.

Pérez was downright excellent during his first full season with the Bucs. He tossed 196 innings of 2.98 ERA ball in 2004, striking out 29.7% of opponents. That came at a time when the leaguewide strikeout rate was far lower than it is now, and Pérez’s mark trailed only those of Randy Johnson and Johan Santana among 89 qualified starters.

Even at his best, Pérez struggled somewhat to throw strikes. Walks became an increasing problem, and the southpaw had his share of ups and downs over the next few seasons. Pittsburgh traded him to the Mets as part of a package to acquire Xavier Nady at the trade deadline in 2006, and he logged the next four and a half seasons in Queens. Pérez had a pair of productive seasons to start his Mets tenure, combining for a 3.91 ERA across 371 frames between 2007-08. Yet his walk and home run rates spiked to untenable levels the following couple seasons, and the Mets moved him to the bullpen midway through the 2010 campaign.

After spending 2011 as a starter in the Nationals’ system but failing to return to the majors, he moved to the bullpen full-time. That proved to be a career turning point for Pérez. He’d enjoy a decade-long second act as a reliever, bouncing between a handful of teams but generally thriving in a situational role. Working in shorter stints, Pérez proved more successful than he’d been as a starter with regards to throwing strikes. He posted an ERA below 4.00 in all three seasons from 2012-14 while playing for the Mariners and Diamondbacks. His ERA spiked over the next three seasons, but Pérez consistently posted strong peripherals in relief during stints with the Astros and Nationals.

After minor league deals with the Reds and Yankees didn’t result in a big league opportunity, Pérez looked as if he might be nearing the end of his career in 2018. He caught on with the Indians midseason, though, and he proved an invaluable weapon for skipper Terry Francona down the stretch. The veteran specialist impressively made 50 appearances from June 2 onward, working to a 1.39 ERA with a 35.8% strikeout rate and a 5.8% walk percentage.

That offseason, he returned to Cleveland on a one-year guarantee with a vesting option for 2020. He triggered that provision by making 67 appearances (with a 3.98 ERA) in 2019. Pérez continued to get solid results during the shortened season, but his peripherals went in the wrong direction. He re-upped with Cleveland on a minor league deal last winter. While he made the roster out of Spring Training, the Indians designated him for assignment in late April. Pérez latched on with the Toros in May. After pitching to a 2.63 ERA in 24 outings with the Mexican League club, he’ll return for another season in Tijuana to finish out his career.

Pérez had a winding, remarkable run during his time in the majors. He appeared in 19 of the 20 MLB seasons between 2002-21, suiting up with eight different clubs at the big league level. While he never established himself as a consistently productive rotation member over multiple years, Pérez posted top-of-the-rotation numbers over a full season in 2004 and intermittently looked like a solid starter at other points. Yet upon reinventing himself as a reliever, he proved a reliably effective option for various clubs. From 2012 onwards, Pérez posted a 3.42 ERA over 490 relief outings. He was especially challenging for same-handed opponents, holding lefty batters to a cumulative .229/.300/.337 slash in that time.

Overall, Pérez posted a 4.34 ERA in 1,461 2/3 big league innings. He punched out 1,545 batters, was credited with 73 wins and held 105 leads in a set-up capacity. According to Baseball Reference, Pérez earned a bit under $53MM in salary over the course of his lengthy big league career. MLBTR congratulates him on his accomplishments and wishes him all the best in his upcoming season with the Toros and his post-playing days.

Mariners Sign Patrick Weigel To Minor League Deal

By Anthony Franco | February 21, 2022 at 8:06pm CDT

The Mariners have signed Patrick Weigel to a minor league contract, according to Chris Hilburn-Trenkle of Baseball America. The right-hander had elected minor league free agency at the end of the season after being outrighted off the Brewers’ 40-man roster in August.

Weigel, now 27, is probably best known for his early-career days in the Braves’ farm system. A 7th-round draftee in 2015, he emerged as one of the more interesting young arms in the organization within a couple seasons. Weigel drew plaudits for a mid-high 90s fastball and a pair of quality breaking balls. Baseball America slotted him among the top ten prospects in the farm system after he dominated at Low-A in 2016, but he suffered a UCL tear that required Tommy John surgery the following season. He missed almost all of the 2018 campaign rehabbing.

While Weigel returned to post decent numbers in the high minors in 2019, he’s had a rough go of things the past couple years. He made his first MLB outing during the shortened 2020 campaign but spent the bulk of the year at the alternate training site. Atlanta traded Weigel to Milwaukee last April as part of a two-player package to bring in utilityman Orlando Arcia.

Weigel’s lone year with the Brew Crew didn’t go well. He averaged a solid 94.6 MPH on his fastball during his three big league appearances, but he only spent a bit more than a week on the active roster. The California native spent the rest of the year with Triple-A Nashville, where he worked almost exclusively as a reliever. Over 43 1/3 innings with the Sounds, he managed just a 7.27 ERA while struggling immensely with his control. Weigel walked an untenable 17.6% of batters faced at the minors’ top level last season, exacerbating strike-throwing problems he’s faced throughout his career.

It’s unlikely Weigel will ever have great command, but he’ll certainly need to throw more strikes than he did in 2021 if he’s to earn a spot on Seattle’s big league roster. It seems likely the M’s will give him a look in Spring Training to see if he can better harness the raw stuff that made him a solid prospect. Weigel was predominantly a starter up through 2019, but scouting reports had long suggested he might eventually have to move to the bullpen because of his questionable command. Given that he worked in relief last year, it seems likely the Mariners are eyeing him as a depth option for the ’pen.

Mariners On The Hunt For Right-Handed Power Bat

By James Hicks | February 19, 2022 at 11:59am CDT

In a profile of Mariners president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale outlined the team’s remaining offseason plans, noting specifically that Seattle hopes to add a right-handed power bat (ideally at third to replace the recently retired Kyle Seager) and a left-handed bat in the outfield. In addition to landing 2021 NL All-Star Adam Frazier in a November trade with the Padres, Dipoto already made one of the bigger offseason splashes of the pre-lockout free agent frenzy, inking reigning AL Cy Young winner Robbie Ray to a five-year, $115MM deal to anchor manager Scott Servais’ rotation.

Given what’s already a relatively crowded outfield picture in Seattle (Mitch Haniger, Jarred Kelenic, 2020 AL Rookie of the Year Kyle Lewis, and uber-prospect Julio Rodriguez all figure to see significant time there, as could Frazier and former top-100 prospect Taylor Trammell), the outfielder Nightengale suggests Dipoto is targeting is likely to be of the versatile bench-bat sort. Any of Odubel Herrera, Travis Jankowski, Billy Hamilton, Gerardo Parra, Matt Joyce, or Billy McKinney could come without a significant commitment, and Dipoto might check in on Joc Pederson or Eddie Rosario if either is willing to take on a part-time role.

The right-handed power bat is unlikely to come cheaply, however. The obvious option on the current market is Kris Bryant, and it’s no surprise that nary a report on Bryant passes without a prominent reference to the Mariners. Given how much money Dipoto is known to have left to spend — the Mariners, who have one of the youngest rosters in the bigs, have just under $87MM in salary committed to the 2022 roster (per Roster Resource) — Bryant remains a very live possibility, as might Seiya Suzuki (though he’d contribute to the outfield glut). Trevor Story and (perhaps) Carlos Correa could also be on the table.

The presence of incumbent shortstop J.P. Crawford may be a roadblock to a major move at the position, since Dipoto has repeatedly stated that Crawford isn’t changing positions. The Fielding Bible ranked Crawford as the sixth-best defensive shortstop in baseball in 2021, though both Story and Correa ranked higher on that list. With Story reportedly uninterested in a position change and Correa on the hunt for a mega-deal, neither seems likely at this point barring a trade of Crawford for another piece.

With no other clear upgrade over utilityman Abraham Toro on the free agent market, Dipoto is likely to explore trade possibilities should Bryant sign elsewhere. With the A’s reportedly entering a fire sale, Matt Chapman is the obvious first port of call, though he’ll draw widespread interest and will command a small fortune in prospect capital. Seattle could also look to engage the Guardians on Jose Ramirez, though he’d take an even bigger bite out of the Seattle system than Chapman and is well on his way to an enormous payday when he becomes a free agent following the 2023 season. Josh Donaldson, who posted a solid-if-unspectacular .247/.352/.475 line in 135 games with the Twins in 2021, still has plenty of power and isn’t likely to cost much more than a willingness to eat a substantial chunk of the two years and $50MM (including an $8MM buyout of his 2024 option) remaining on his contract. The 2015 AL MVP could be an intriguing upside play, but he’d be a particularly risky bet for a club hoping to catapult into the upper echelons of the American League sooner rather than later.

Regardless of how Dipoto addresses the loss of Seager — indeed, he could well head into Opening Day with Toro manning the hot corner and reexamine the position at the trade deadline — the Mariners are sure to be a hot pick to take a major step forward in 2022 whenever the season gets rolling. After overachieving in 2021 with 90 wins and a spot at the periphery of playoff contention well into the season’s final week, the young M’s will be expected to contend for this year’s AL West title — particularly if, as expected, Correa doesn’t return to Houston. Should they add another big bat, don’t be surprised to see them picked as a dark horse to win a pennant as early as next season.

8 Post-Tommy John Pitchers Who’ll Impact Next Year’s Market

By Steve Adams | February 15, 2022 at 12:53pm CDT

We’ve grown accustomed to seeing headline after headline indicating that a pitcher is slated to undergo Tommy John surgery in today’s game. The procedure has become so commonplace, in fact, that it’s no longer surprising to see teams guarantee multi-year deals to rehabbing pitchers who’ll be sidelined for a full season of that contract as they work back from the injury. Such deals have produced varying levels of success in the past. Nathan Eovaldi’s two-year deal with the Rays worked out great; Drew Smyly didn’t pitch for the Cubs and posted a 6.24 after being traded to the Rangers.

Heading into the 2022 season, there are a handful of notable pitchers who were either signed under just that circumstance or are now playing for a contract on the heels of a Tommy John surgery that, hopefully, is more or less in the rearview mirror. A strong rebound will position any of this bunch either as a prominent member of next winter’s free-agent crop or, in some cases, to have a lucrative 2023 club option picked up. Here’s a look at a handful of Tommy John recoveries that could have a notable impact on next year’s market.

Starting Pitchers

Mike Clevinger: A marquee addition by the Padres at the 2020 trade deadline, Clevinger made only four regular-season starts and a one-inning postseason cameo before requiring Tommy John surgery in the 2020-21 offseason. San Diego, knowing he’d miss the entire 2021 season, signed him to a two-year, $11.5MM deal that paid him $2MM during his rehab season but will more heavily compensate him in 2022, now that he’s expected to be back to full strength. It was the second Tommy John procedure of Clevinger’s career, as he also had the surgery as a minor leaguer back in 2012.

There’s little questioning Clevinger’s talent, as the now-31-year-old righty was one of the most effective starters in all of baseball from 2017 until the time of his injury in 2020. In 489 1/3 innings over that stretch, Clevinger posted a 2.96 ERA while punching out 28% of his opponents against a 9% walk rate. Among big league pitchers with at least 400 innings thrown during that time, Clevinger ranked seventh in ERA and 14th in FIP (3.39). That said, he’s also only reached 130 innings in a big league season on one occasion, when he threw an even 200 frames in 2019.

That relatively limited workload, coupled with this being Clevinger’s second Tommy John procedure, will surely impact his free agency next winter to an extent. That said, a strong and healthy season out of the righty will still position him as one of the top arms on next winter’s market. Clevinger, teammate Joe Musgrove, Sean Manaea and Noah Syndergaard are among the more prominent free agents still in their early 30s next winter (to say nothing of older veterans with contract options or opt-outs, such as Jacob deGrom, Justin Verlander and Charlie Morton).

James Paxton: Paxton isn’t necessarily playing for a free-agent contract. He signed a complicated multi-year deal with the Red Sox that’ll pay him $6MM in 2022 before he can either trigger a $4MM player option or the team can exercise a pair of $13MM club options for the 2023-24 seasons. For luxury-tax purposes, that should be considered a two-year, $10MM deal, as the player option for 2023 is considered to be guaranteed money. Of course, there’s also the possibility that with a healthy season, the contract will effectively balloon to a contract that pays Paxton $32MM over a three-year term. The deal contains further incentives, as Paxton could boost those 2023-24 salaries by $250K apiece for reaching 12, 14, 16 and 18 starts.

It’s a heavily incentive-laden deal that speaks both to the considerable risk in signing Paxton and the considerable upside he’ll bring to Boston. A healthy Paxton is a high-quality big league starter, evidenced the career 3.50 ERA he carried into an injury-ruined 2020 season with the Yankees. Among the 149 big league starters to toss at least 200 innings from 2017-19, Paxton’s 30.1% strikeout rate ranked seventh, and his 7.3% walk rate was markedly better than league average. His 22.7 K-BB% was among the best in the game, as were his strong ratings in the eyes of fielding-independent metrics like FIP (3.26) and SIERA (3.45).

Since that 2019 season, however, Paxton has undergone back surgery, missed significant time with a forearm strain and eventually undergone Tommy John surgery. Earlier in his career, he’d dealt with lat, forearm and pectoral injuries, among a litany of smaller-scale issues.

There’s probably a scenario where Paxton pitches well enough to turn down his $4MM player option even if the Red Sox decline the effective two-year, $26MM option they hold over him. (We saw a comparable situation play out with Yusei Kikuchi earlier in the winter.) That said, the ideal scenario for Paxton and the Sox is that he pitches well enough to reestablish himself as a quality MLB hurler and boost those two club options to $14MM apiece in total value in the process.

Paxton underwent his Tommy John procedure in late April, so he’s not likely to be ready to help the Red Sox at the beginning of the season. By late May or June, however, he could represent a boost to a rotation that is not exactly shy of other injury concerns.

Justin Verlander: Even though he hasn’t pitched since undergoing Tommy John surgery, Verlander still got a hefty $25MM guarantee from the Astros — plus a conditional $25MM player option that kicks in if he reaches 130 innings pitched. The two-time Cy Young winner and former AL MVP has a track record that speaks for itself; when we last saw Verlander in a full, healthy season, he was edging then-teammate Gerrit Cole for the 2019 AL Cy Young Award.

Verlander has said in the past that he hopes to pitch into his 40s, and he has a good chance at doing so if he can bounce back this coming season. He’ll turn 39 later this week, and if he goes out and looks anything like he did from 2015-20 — 1010 innings, 2.94 ERA, 29.7% strikeout rate, 6% walk rate — Verlander will likely turn down that $25MM option, or at least leverage it into a new multi-year arrangement with the ’Stros. He was just promised a $25MM guarantee despite having thrown only six innings since Opening Day 2020, so there’s little reason to accept that he’d take a year and $25MM on the heels of a healthy return effort at Minute Maid Park.

Noah Syndergaard: Perhaps it’s not quite fair to label Syndergaard as a Tommy John rehabber; after all, he did make it back to the mound with the Mets late in the 2021 season — albeit for only two innings. That said, this is Thor’s first full season back from that ligament replacement procedure, and he’ll be pitching for a big contract next winter from the moment he suits up in Orange County. Signed by the Angels to a one-year, $21MM contract, Syndergaard will be pitching with a team other than the Mets for the first time in his big league career.

It’s a hefty price to pay, particularly considering the fact that Syndergaard had rejected an $18.4MM qualifying offer, but his career to date is all the evidence needed to suggest that at his best, Syndergaard is plenty worth that gamble. He’s never walked more than 6.1% of his opponents in a given season and has never failed to strike out a batter per inning. Few pitchers can match Syndergaard’s blend of pure velocity, missed bats and impeccable command, and he manages all that while still turning in a ground-ball rate that’s well higher than the league average.

Syndergaard has always felt like he’s one step away from solidifying himself as a bona fide ace, and as Robbie Ray showed in winning the AL Cy Young Award this season, one dominant season for a player with this type of track record can result in a nine-figure payday if things break right. The market has already proven to value Syndergaard at more than $20MM per year, and given that he’d be 30 years old in 2023, it’s not hyperbole to suggest that he’s pitching for a $100MM contract this season.

Luis Severino: As with Syndergaard, Severino may not quite fit the criteria for this list. The 27-year-old (28 later this week, on the same day Verlander turns 39) returned to give the Yankees six innings out of the bullpen late in the 2021 season, and his protracted absence from the team’s pitching staff cannot be solely attributed to Tommy John surgery. Severino has also battled groin, shoulder and lat injuries along the way. That said, Severino really hasn’t pitched since undergoing Tommy John surgery in Feb. 2020, and it’s that operation that is the primary reason for his absence over the past two seasons.

Severino isn’t yet slated to hit the open market at season’s end — at least not before the Yankees make a call on a $15MM club option or a $2.75MM buyout. The resulting $12.25MM net decision would be a straightforward one for general manager Brian Cashman if Severino at all looks like his former self. From 2017-18, Severino gave the Yankees 384 2/3 innings of 3.18 ERA ball with outstanding strikeout and walk rates, prompting the team to sign him to a four-year contract extension that promised him $40MM.

That deal looked like a bargain for the team at the time but has since gone south, due largely to repeated injury woes. Severino made a combined 63 regular-season starts for the Yankees in 2017-18, looking every bit like a foundational piece to the pitching staff, but he’s combined for just 25 starts and another 18 relief appearances in the five seasons surrounding that brilliant run.

With a big season in 2022, Severino could still see that $15MM option picked up, and if he can remain healthy into 2023, he’d hit the open market heading into his age-30 season. There’s a long way to go before that scenario becomes reality, however.

Relievers

Tommy Kahnle: Signed by the Dodgers to a two-year, $4.75MM contract last offseason, Kahnle was never expected to contribute in 2021 — hence the backloaded nature of his contract, which will pay him $3.45MM in 2022. The hard-throwing righty only managed one inning for the 2020 Yankees, meaning this coming season will be the first since 2019 in which he’ll potentially pitch anything resembling a full workload.

The 32-year-old Kahnle has been inconsistent but has dominated more often than he’s struggled. From 2016-20, he logged a combined 3.48 ERA, 32.9% strikeout rate and 9.9% walk rate while averaging 97.1 mph on his heater. That includes a disastrous but also fluky-looking 2018 campaign in which he was tattooed for a 6.56 ERA in 23 1/3 frames. From 2016-20, Kahnle’s 32.9% strikeout rate ranks 17th among the 155 relievers to have thrown at least 150 innings, while his 15.9% swinging-strike rate is tied for sixth.

Kahnle’s Tommy John surgery came way back on Aug. 5, 2020, so there should be no restrictions on him by the time the season gets underway. He’ll be heading into his age-33 season next winter, and a return to his vintage form should position him as one of the top relievers on a free-agent market that is lacking in big-name right-handed relievers.

Ken Giles: Like Kahnle, Giles was signed by the Mariners — two years, $7MM — knowing full well that he would not pitch in 2021. Unlike Kahnle, his contract includes a club option for the 2023 season, which is valued at $9.5MM (with a $500K buyout).

Many of the same superlatives that apply to Kahnle apply even more so to Giles. His 18% swinging-strike rate, for instance, tops Kahnle and sits third among the 155 relievers who totaled at least 150 frames from 2016-20. His 3.33 ERA in that time is a bit more toward the middle of the pack, but Giles misses bats, induces chases outside the zone and throws as hard as nearly any reliever in the sport. He’s had a pair of 4.00-something ERAs sprinkled in amid a series of pristine marks throughout his big league career. Those two blemishes have coincided with spikes in his average on balls in play and dips in his strand rate.

On the whole, Giles is a power arm who can pile up strikeouts in droves. He’s a sometimes forgotten piece of the puzzle when looking at the 2022 Mariners and their hopes of contending, but he’ll join a deep bullpen mix that also features Diego Castillo, 2021 breakout closer Paul Sewald, former Marlins stopped Drew Steckenrider (who enjoyed a tremendous rebound in 2021) and the underappreciated Casey Sadler, who notched a 0.67 ERA in 40 1/3 innings last year.

A healthy Giles would very likely see that $9.5MM club option for the 2023 season picked up, and at his best, he’s a bargain at that price. If Giles is pitching well but things go south for the Mariners, teams will come calling at the trade deadline. Of course, the Mariners are hoping to be squarely in the postseason mix, and they’re likely not done with their offseason shopping just yet.

Jose Leclerc: Armed with a fastball in the mid to upper 90s, Leclerc’s ability to return to form (or his lack thereof) will have major implications for the Rangers moving forward. His four-year, $14.75MM contract extension includes a $6MM club option for the 2023 season and a $6.25MM option for the 2024 season. A rebound effort makes that 2023 option a no-brainer for the Rangers to pick up as they hope to ride a hyper-aggressive offseason into their next competitive window.

Leclerc, 28, has fanned just shy of a third of the hitters he’s faced so far in his big league career and has only allowed a dozen homers in 189 Major League innings (0.57 HR/9). His 14.9% walk rate is far too high, but he looked to be making considerable strides in that department in 2019 when he posted a sub-2.00 ERA, a 38.1% strikeout rate and an 11.2% walk rate. He’ll be a highly intriguing lottery ticket on next year’s market if he pitches poorly enough that the Rangers buy that option out (or if they do so on the heels of another injury). If he rebounds, he’ll be a bargain piece of an on-the-rise Rangers club in 2023-24.

« Previous Page

Load More Posts

Show all

Headlines

Mariners Rumors

Navigation

MLBTR INFO

Connect