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Free Agent Profile: Ervin Santana

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It's been an eventful 12 months for Ervin Santana. It seems hard to believe that just a year ago, Royals GM Dayton Moore's decision to acquire Santana and $1MM for minor leaguer Brandon Sisk was widely panned. Since that time, Santana resurfaced as one of the better pitchers in the American League, one of the game's top trade chips at the deadline and of course, one of the most desirable free agents on the market.

Strengths/Pros

Santana shaved nearly two runs off his ERA this season, dropping it to 3.24 and crossing 200 innings for the fifth time in his nine-year career. Durability is one of Santana's biggest assets; he's only been on the disabled list twice in his career. Dating back to 2011, Santana's average of 6.5 innings per start is the highest of any notable free agent. That ability to work deep into games is a boost for teams looking to avoid overtaxing their bullpens.  Santana-Ervin

Santana's 92.4 mph average fastball is among the fastest for free agent starters this season. Only Matt Garza, Josh Johnson, Jon Lester, Jason Hammel, Edinson Volquez, A.J. Burnett and Scott Kazmir throw harder. Lester's option will be picked up, however, while Volquez and Johnson posted two of baseball's worst ERAs. If you're looking for a starter that can average better than 92 mph on his fastball, Santana is a cut above the rest. In terms of swinging-strike rate, only Burnett, Kazmir, Ricky Nolasco and Chris Capuano topped Santana's 10 percent mark.

Santana's career 2.8 BB/9 rate is a testament to his excellent control, but he took that a step further in 2013. Santana's 2.2 BB/9 rate is fifth-best among qualified starters. Removing three intentional walks from the equation, that number drops to 2.0. Santana also continued to display an increased ground-ball rate, posting a career-best 46.5 percent mark in 2013 — his third-straight season of at least 43.2 percent.

Age is on Santana's side; he's set to turn 31 in December, making him younger than a number of his peers and bringing the promise of a few more of his prime years over the course of his next contract.

Weaknesses/Cons

Santana is homer-prone (career 1.22 HR/9), and the homer bug bit fiercely in 2012 when his 39 long balls allowed were the most in the Majors. That season was a clear outlier, as evidenced by a remarkably fluky 18.9 percent homer-to-flyball ratio (the league average that season was 11.8 percent, and Santana's career mark is 11 percent). Even if you ignore the outlier season, however, only twice has he posted a HR/9 better than the league average.

For a player who is positioned as one of the top pitchers on the free agent market, Santana doesn't strike hitters out at an elite rate. His 6.9 K/9 in 2013 was below the league average of 7.2 for starting pitchers, and he hasn't averaged more than 7.0 punchouts per nine innings since 2008. 

I'd be remiss not to point out that Santana was little more than a salary dump a year ago at this time. The Royals' acquisition of him was widely questioned, as he was coming off a season in which he posted a 5.16 ERA — his second ERA north of 5.00 in a four-year span. Santana does not have consistency on his side, and he pitched below replacement level in 2012.

Part of the reason for his other 5.00+ ERA season (5.03 in 2009) was that he partially tore his UCL and elected to rehab and pitch through it. His ERA that season is probably more representative of the injury than his ability, as he posted a 7.81 first-half ERA but a 3.90 second-half ERA (3.09 in his final 12 appearances). Santana has never had the injury corrected, but it doesn't appear to be a major issue, as he's thrown 980 innings since partially tearing the ligament. Put another way, Santana has thrown nearly as many innings since the 2009 injury as one of his competitors, Josh Johnson, has thrown in his entire career dating back to 2005.

Advanced metrics such as FIP, xFIP and SIERA all feel that even in Santana's best seasons, he's more of a 3.90-4.00 ERA pitcher. Those may be a bit unfair, as he's shown the ability to consistently post a BABIP that's better than the league average, as seen in his .282 career total. It's still hard to ignore the fact that Santana has had just one truly elite season — a 219-inning, six-fWAR (five rWAR) masterpiece back in 2008. He's never been able to replicate his velocity, swinging-strike rate or strikeout rate from that season.

Santana's strong overall numbers in 2013 make a qualifying offer an absolute no-brainer for the Royals, so a team will absolutely have to forfeit its first- or second-round pick to sign him.

Personal

Per the Royals media guide, Santana and his wife, Amy, reside in the Dominican Republic in the offseason. He enjoys teaching children about baseball fundamentals and is outspoken in the confidence he has in himself and his teammates on Twitter. Santana was a hot topic at MLBTR over the summer months, and he showed off his playful side by making this Youtube video that described how it felt to be the target of so many trade rumors.

Market

Santana parlayed his rebound campaign into a No. 6 ranking on Tim Dierkes' Free Agent Power Rankings, leapfrogging Garza as the top domestic free agent pitcher on the market (Masahiro Tanaka, at No. 5, is the top overall pitcher).

The Royals have made it known that they'd like to re-sign him, but if they're truly reluctant to offer more than three years, Santana is as good as gone. Any team in search of pitching figures to at least place a call on Santana, meaning that the Orioles, Blue Jays, Yankees, Twins, Indians, Mariners, Giants, Rockies, Pirates, Cubs, Nationals, Phillies and Mets should all have varying degrees of interest.

Of course, not all those teams will be willing to bid high enough to land his services, nor will they all be keen on surrendering a draft pick to acquire Santana. The Twins are one team that has recently said they'd forfeit their second-round selection if they liked a player enough, though Santana is far pricier than their typical mold. On the flip-side of the coin, the Mets seem strongly against the idea of sacrificing their second-round selection for any player other than Shin-Soo Choo.

Expected Contract

ESPN's Keith Law recently wrote (Insider subscription required and recommended) that a four-year deal is a likelihood for Santana on the free agent market, adding that he prefers him to Garza and Dan Haren.

I find a four-year deal to be the floor for Santana, and would expect agent Bean Stringfellow of Proformance to seek a five-year pact. Given the sheer volume of teams looking to bolster their rotations and the relatively weak crop of free agent hurlers on the market, Santana has an honest chance at getting there. We've already received a glimpse at what the early market for free agent pitching will look like, with Tim Lincecum agreeing to a two-year, $35MM extension with the Giants.

Going back to 2008, Anibal Sanchez, Zack Greinke, C.J. Wilson, Yu Darvish, Cliff Lee, John Lackey, CC Sabathia and Burnett have inked free agent deals for five or more seasons. Each of those players was considered one of the top two starters on the market in his respective free agent class. Second-tier pitchers such as Derek Lowe and Edwin Jackson have been able to find lofty four-year commitments, and Santana enters free agency on the heels of a vastly superior season to the one that led to Jackson's four-year, $52MM pact with the Cubs.

As ludicrous as it would've sounded a year ago — and improbable as it will sound to some even now — my expectation is that Santana finds a team willing to push the limits and offer a five-year, $75MM contract.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Central Notes: Mujica, Rosenthal, Martinez, Tigers

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Many MLBTR readers will enjoy a read of this short piece, in which Luke Epplin of the New Yorker explores the origins of baseball's status as a thinking man's game, prominently featuring legendary hurler Christy Mathewson. In present day news, here are some links from the game's central divisions:

  • Though he seems to have quite a positive attitude, deposed Cardinals closer Edward Mujica has been relegated mostly to a cheerleading role in the post-season, writes MLB.com's Chad Thornburg. While Shelby Miller has also seen his role virtually eliminated, it doesn't figure to have any impact on his earning potential. But for Mujica, who MLBTR's Steve Adams predicted to garner a commitment of over $20MM on the upcoming free agent market, the lack of trust shown by the Cards quite possibly could create doubt amongst other franchises, particularly those looking for a closer.
  • The success of St. Louis's young arms is well documented, but Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch provides an interesting look at the development of the team's current late inning relief duo. Both Trevor Rosenthal and Carlos Martinez are hard-throwing converted position players who have settled into bullpen roles in their early twenties. And both could still become impact starters.
  • With nine players eligible for arbitration, the Tigers could have a lot of negotiating to do. As MLive.com's Chris Iott explains, it may prove difficult to reach agreement on a salary with starter Max Scherzer's agent, Scott Boras, given the righty's outstanding season. The most likely Detroit non-tender, according to Iott, is lefty Phil Coke, with utilityman Don Kelly also a candidate.

East Notes: Strasburg, Harper, Drew, Orioles

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The Nationals informed the press today that three critically important players had undergone "successful" surgeries, none of which are expected to present obstacles to a normal Spring Training. Dan Kolko of MASNsports.com, who was first to report the news on Twitter, rounds up the latest here. Staff ace Stephen Strasburg had bone chips removed from his right elbow; outfielder Bryce Harper had work done to the bursa in his left knee; and first baseman Adam LaRoche had his left elbow cleaned up. Each is reportedly on a four to six week timetable, though as Mark Zuckerman of CSNWashington notes, bone chip removal in a throwing elbow typically requires a three to four month window for a full recovery. Elsewhere in baseball's eastern divisions …

  • Stephen Drew of the Red Sox has had one of the most anemic offensive post-seasons ever, and Joel Sherman of the New York Post wonders whether it will impact his free agency. Of course, as Sherman also details, Drew has been outstanding defensively during the Sox' run to the World Series. The expectation, he writes, is that Boston will make Drew a qualifying offer and attempt to keep him around, with the shortstop ultimately pulling down three or even four years at around $12MM a pop.
  • Looking at things from the perspectives of the New York clubs, each of whom could have a use for Drew, Sherman says that Drew figures to cost too much for the Mets' liking. For the Yankees, meanwhile, Drew seems more of a second-level possibility whose attractiveness will depend upon who else the Yanks can sign and the status of Alex Rodriguez and Derek Jeter.
  • With managerial openings beginning to be filled, the Orioles are likely to act soon to decide upon a pitching coach, writes Eduardo Encina of the Baltimore Sun. The leading candidates, according to Encina, include three men with prior experience as pitching coaches (Rich Dubee, Carl Willis, and Dave Wallace) along with Andy Hawkins, the Rangers' bullpen coach.

Poll: The Lincecum Extension

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In the wake of Tim Lincecum's recent re-up with the Giants, I took a look back (using MLBTR's Extension Tracker) to see if there were any comparable starting pitching extensions agreed upon during post-season play. There were: each of the last four offseasons has seen one (and only one) rotation member sign a new deal with his club during the month of October. Though the Yankees' massive extension of C.C. Sabathia is not really comparable, the other two deals are. Rather than just asking for an up-or-down vote on the Lincecum deal, I thought it might be more interesting to approach the question in a bit of historical context.

In 2010, the Dodgers decided to hand Ted Lilly a three-year, $33MM deal. In doing so, Los Angeles kept Lilly from reaching the market as a probable Type-A free agent, which might have suppressed his value and would have allowed the club to recoup two draft picks if he signed elsewhere. And in 2012, the White Sox gave Jake Peavy a two-year, $29MM deal, including a club option for 2015 that could have vested (but will not) to become a player option. In so doing, Chicago also agreed to pay Peavy a deferred $4MM buyout on the $22MM option the club already held on him. Of course, the Sox could also have decided to make Peavy a qualifying offer — at essentially the same average annual value they promised him for two years — to keep his price down in free agency and deliver a first-round draft choice if he went elsewhere. 

Of course, we now know how those two deals turned out for the clubs signing them. Lilly was solid, if unspectacular, in 2011, putting up a 3.97 ERA in 192 2/3 innings. He was off to a nice start over his first 48 1/3 innings in 2012 when he was knocked out of commission by a shoulder injury. He was ineffective in just 23 big league innings this season, and ultimately returned less than 2 WAR over the life of the contract. Meanwhile, Peavy fell well short of his outstanding 2012 season in the first year of his new deal, ultimately throwing 144 2/3 innings of 4.17 ERA baseball, good for 2.4 fWAR and 1.5 rWAR. He was reasonably effective, but hardly dominant, for a sputtering White Sox squad before suffering a broken rib that endangered his status as a trade deadline target. Nevertheless, his pre-deadline return enabled the South Siders to flip Peavy to the Red Sox and return prospect Avisail Garcia (and others), while shedding the remainder of his salary.

Much as with Lilly and Peavy, Lincecum signed his new contract before his present club could make him a qualifying offer that would have limited his free agent prospects. Indeed, the San Francisco front office sought to justify Lincecum's price tag in part by noting that he would have received about the same amount had he accepted consecutive qualifying offers this year and next. 

Ultimately, the Lilly and Peavy deals show two possible outcomes for Lincecum's own contract. Though Lincecum is somewhat younger than the other two, he has nearly as many innings on his arm as they did. Injury or ineffectiveness could render the deal a major waste of resources. Or the Freak could pitch well enough for other teams to view the remainder of his contract as a valuable commodity. (Even if his no-trade clause would present a significant barrier to an actual deal.) Which outcome seems more likely at this point?

Quick Hits: Jimenez, Ellsbury, Cubs, 2014 Draft

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As the World Series shifts to St. Louis this weekend, here's the latest from around baseball…

  • The Indians "would love" having Ubaldo Jimenez back on a one-year, $14.1MM qualifying offer contract (with an option for 2015) but not on an expensive long-term deal, Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer says on a podcast with Chris Fedor.  Tim Lincecum's two-year, $35MM contract from the Giants has put the cost of pitching out of Cleveland's range for Jimenez, who the Tribe feel has been too inconsistent to merit a multiyear commitment.
  • "There is so much money in the game, free agency is crazy," an anonymous GM tells Peter Gammons (Twitter link).  The GM also believes Lincecum's deal will end any chance of Jimenez returning to Cleveland and that Jacoby Ellsbury will earn a contract worth more than $100MM in free agency this winter.
  • MLBTR's Tim Dierkes, meanwhile, thinks Ellsbury's eventual contract could approach the $150MM threshold (Twitter link).
  • There is at least one mystery candidate on the Cubs' short list of potential managers, Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times reports.  Rick Renteria, Torey Lovullo, A.J. Hinch, Manny Acta and Dave Martinez have already been connected to the job and Eric Wedge is the latest candidate to be scheduled for an interview.  As to the identity of the unknown candidate, Wittenmyer says it isn't Sandy Alomar, Mike Maddux, Jose Oquendo, Don Mattingly, Jim Leyland or any of the Cubs' current coaching staff.  
  • NC State left-hander Carlos Rodon headlines the list of the top 30 prospects of the 2014 amateur draft, according to ESPN's Keith Law and Christopher Crawford (Insider subscription required).  Rodon is considered the favorite to be the first overall selection in June and the Astros are already looking at him.

Ryan On Free Agents, Tenders, Pelfrey, Pitching

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Twins GM Terry Ryan discussed a number of topics with 1500ESPN.com's Darren Wolfson on Wednesday, including the following hot stove-related items…

  • The Twins have a protected first round draft pick but Ryan said he'd be comfortable in surrendering the club's second round selection to sign a free agent who had declined a qualifying offer, provided that he felt the free agent was a good fit.
  • Likewise, if the Twins identify a player on the trade market that would upgrade their club and could be had at the right price, Ryan would be open to dealing prospects to make a big splash like the Royals did last offseason to acquire James Shields.  "If you find some of that pitching, it makes you look a lot better in a hurry. So, you'd have to give it some consideration. But it'd have to make a lot of sense. No doubt," Ryan said.
  • Ryan has "flexibility with payroll" and isn't afraid to spend on a player his front office thinks is the right guy.  "We have people who put their neck out and are committed to whoever the player is or the pitcher is, you move forward. If it costs you some money, we go to where we're comfortable," Ryan said.
  • Trevor Plouffe will be tendered a contract, Ryan confirmed.  He declined to comment on Anthony Swarzak or Brian Duensing (both of whom are also eligible for arbitration), but Wolfson reports that "league sources are convinced" that both pitchers will be tendered contracts.
  • There is "probably not" any chance of the Twins re-signing Mike Pelfrey before he hits the free agent market, as Ryan suggested Pelfrey and agent Scott Boras will want to test the market.  Pelfrey returned from Tommy John surgery in 2012 to throw 152 2/3 innings for the Twins last season and he posted a 5.19 ERA that peripherals stats indicated should've been lower.  Pelfrey has said he would be interested in returning to Minnesota and MLBTR's Steve Adams suggests Pelfrey could be had on another one-year contract.

Tigers Notes: Wallach, Ellsbury, Payroll, Coaches

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Here's the latest news from Motown…

  • The Tigers interviewed Dodgers third base coach Tim Wallach for their vacant manager's job today, Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times reports (Twitter link).  ESPN's Jonah Keri tweeted earlier tonight that "talks [were] escalating" between Wallach and the club, and Wallach himself confirmed the interview in a text message to Mlive.com's Chris Iott.  "I thought it went well," Wallach said in the text. "It's a very good ballclub and I know how Dave [Dombrowski] works. He was my general manager in Montreal."
  • Earlier this week in an article for Grantland, Keri opined that the Tigers could address their baserunning and defensive problems by signing Jacoby Ellsbury.  Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe also noted Ellsbury as a fit for Detroit last weekend, and the Tigers have a good relationship with Scott Boras, Ellsbury's agent.
  • The Tigers have already spent so much on payroll in recent years that Tony Paul of the Detroit News wonders if the team has reached the limits of its budget and may have to make lower-priced additions this offseason.
  • Hitting coach Lloyd McClendon is the only other candidate to interview for the job thus far, and John Lowe of the Detroit Free Press wonders if third base coach Tom Brookens or bullpen coach Mike Rojas will also receive interviews or if the Tigers will limit internal candidates to prevent any issues if one coach beats another out for the job.

Cardinals Links: Wacha, Pitching, DeWitt

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Michael Wacha, Carlos Martinez and Trevor Rosenthal limited the Red Sox to just four hits and two runs in the Cardinals' 4-2 win in Game Two of the World Series.  Their success is the latest example of the Cards' peerless farm system and ability to develop pitching, which is the topic of these news links…

  • Wacha lasted until the 19th pick in the 2012 draft, a selection that looks like a steal for the Cards right now.  MLB.com's Jonathan Mayo talks to some scouts and executives from those first 18 teams about why they passed on Wacha and how he fell so relatively far in the draft.
  • Beyond finding draft steals, the Cardinals' ability to turn those low draft picks into star players is what wows executives and scouts around baseball, Peter Gammons writes.  MLB.com's Adam McCalvy talks to several past and current members of the St. Louis organization about how they evaluate and develop their talent.
  • Cardinals chairman and CEO Bill DeWitt Jr. boosted payroll and authorized expensive player acquisitions in his first few years of owning the team in order to revive fan interest and quickly get into contention, MLB.com's Jenifer Langosch writes.  In 2003, however, DeWitt refocused the franchise towards emphasizing player development, spending on the draft and international scouting, thus starting the Cardinals' current run of success.
  • With as many as 10 potential starting options for the rotation next year, some rival executives wonder if the Cardinals could package some young arms in a deal for Max Scherzer, CBS Sports' Danny Knobler reports.  Scherzer, who was born in St. Louis, has been rumored to be a possible trade candidate since the Tigers are unsure if they'll be able to sign him to a long-term extension.  As Knobler wonders, however, "why would the Cardinals need to do that?" given that they're already set for pitching, not to mention that Scherzer will be a free agent next winter.
  • Some think that if any Cardinal pitcher is traded, Lance Lynn could be "the odd man out," Knobler writes.

NL East Notes: Wacha, Uggla, Phillies, Williams

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The Mets were focused on position players in the 2012 draft, which is why they took shortstop Gavin Cecchini with the draft's 12th overall selection and didn't take Michael Wacha, the New York Post's Mike Puma writes.  Paul DePodesta, the Mets' VP of player development and amateur scouting, tells Puma that "we really liked Wacha, and he was high up on our board," but the team felt it had enough minor league pitching depth already and needed help around the diamond.  Wacha, of course, ended up going to the Cardinals with the 19th overall pick and has already emerged as a star during St. Louis' postseason run.

Here's some more from around the NL East…

  • "The Braves certainly will entertain shopping" Dan Uggla, according to MLB.com's Joe Frisaro reports, and he looks at the chances of Uggla re-joining the Marlins as part of a reader mailbag.  Frisaro suggests the Braves would move Uggla if a team agrees to pay $6MM of the $26MM owed to Uggla through the 2015 season, and if the trade partner pays more, Atlanta could add a prospect.  I'd suggest that the Braves would have to sweeten the pot to move Uggla, who turns 34 in March, is a defensive liability at second base and has only hit .201/.330/.374 over the last two seasons.  The Braves have been linked to a possible deal of Uggla and a prospect to the Reds for Brandon Phillips. 
  • The Braves have "been lucky of late" to remain competitive despite overspending on Uggla and B.J. Upton, Mark Bradley of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution writes.  Bradley warns that the team can't afford any more of these overpriced deals, and suggests that re-signing Brian McCann would create another payroll albatross in a few years' time.
  • The Phillies' chances of re-signing Carlos Ruiz, their limited payroll and a suggestion about a David Price trade are all addressed in a Phillies-centric reader mailbag from MLB.com's Todd Zolecki.
  • That limited Phillies budget could make it hard to upgrade their rotation since there won't be many bargains to be found on the pitching market this winter, David Murphy of the Philadelphia Daily News writes.
  • Matt Williams "seems to be the best available choice" to be the Nationals' next manager, and though Thomas Boswell of the Washington Post notes some of the risks involved in the impending hiring, he feels it could be a bold move for the team.

Yankees Links: Oppenheimer, Payroll, Joba, Drew

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It was 10 years ago today that the old Yankee Stadium hosted the last World Series game in the building's storied history.  It wasn't a memorable one for the Yankees, as they were shut out by Josh Beckett in Game Six of the 2003 World Series and the Marlins clinched the title.  Here's the latest news about the Bronx Bombers…

  • Damon Oppenheimer will remain as the Yankees' amateur scouting director, Mark Feinsand of the New York Daily News reports.  Oppenheimer's job was rumored to be in jeopardy due to a series of less-than-fruitful drafts but the Yankees' highly-regarded 2013 draft class may have saved him.  Mark Newman, the club's senior VP of baseball operations, could still be in danger of being fired, Feinsand notes.
  • Even if the Yankees spend $300MM on free agents this offseason, ESPN's Mike Petriello (Insider subscription required) doesn't think it will be enough to offset its declining veterans and lack of farm system reinforcements.
  • Joba Chamberlain's days as a Yankee are finished, according to Mike Axisa of the River Ave Blues blog in his review of Chamberlain's 2013 season.  "I don’t think [the Yankees] will bring him back under any circumstances, not even on a minor league contract," Axisa writes.  Chamberlain posted a 4.93 ERA, 8.1 K/9 and 5.6 BB/9 in 42 relief innings last year and has fallen out of favor with the Yankees.
  • Stephen Drew's ability to play both shortstop and third base would fill a valuable need for the Yankees next season, but ESPN New York's Andrew Marchand doesn't think Drew would sign for a team that might not have a regular starting job for him if Derek Jeter and Alex Rodriguez are around.  The Bombers also wouldn't want to give up their first round draft pick to sign Drew if the Red Sox make Drew a qualifying offer.
  • David Robertson doesn't know if he'll be the Yankees closer next year but the reliever tells MLB.com's Bryan Hoch that he's ready for the challenge of taking over from Mariano Rivera.  As I wrote in my Offseason Outlook piece about the Yankees, it wouldn't be surprising if New York brings in a veteran with closing experience to at least compete with Robertson for the job.

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