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2016-17 Offseason Outlook

Offseason Outlook: New York Mets

By Connor Byrne | November 5, 2016 at 8:26pm CDT

MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams. Click here for the other entries in this series.

Myriad injuries helped jeopardize the Mets’ postseason chances in 2016, but the team went on a tear over the final month and a half to secure its second straight playoff berth. Another World Series appearance wasn’t in the cards, though, as the Mets ran into October buzzsaw Madison Bumgarner and fell to the Giants in the National League wild-card game. Now, for the second offseason in a row, New York is in danger of losing lineup cornerstone Yoenis Cespedes.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • David Wright, 3B: $67MM through 2020
  • Juan Lagares, OF: $20MM through 2019 (club option for 2020)
  • Curtis Granderson, OF: $15MM through 2017
  • Jay Bruce, OF: $13MM through 2017
  • Asdrubal Cabrera, SS: $8.25MM through 2017 (club option for 2018)
  • Jose Reyes, INF: $507,500 through 2017

Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections via MLB Trade Rumors)

  • Lucas Duda (5.137) – $6.725MM
  • Rene Rivera (5.070) – $2.2MM
  • Addison Reed (5.001) – $10.6MM
  • Matt Harvey (4.072) – $5.2MM
  • Jeurys Familia (4.030) – $8.7MM
  • Zack Wheeler (3.098) – $1.0MM
  • Josh Edgin (3.097) – $800K
  • Travis d’Arnaud (3.044) – $1.7MM
  • Wilmer Flores (3.003) – $1.9MM
  • Jacob deGrom (2.139) – $4.5MM
  • Non-tender candidates: Rivera

Free Agents

  • Yoenis Cespedes, Neil Walker, James Loney, Bartolo Colon, Alejandro De Aza, Jerry Blevins, Fernando Salas, Kelly Johnson, Jon Niese, Justin Ruggiano

Mets Depth Chart; Mets Payroll Information

When the Mets acquired Cespedes from Detroit prior to the 2015 non-waiver trade deadline, they were three games above .500 and at risk of missing the playoffs for an eighth consecutive season. After his move to New York, Cespedes slashed an outstanding .287/.337/.604 to help lead the club to a 37-22 regular-season finish and an NL East title. Cespedes’ bat cooled off in the playoffs, particularly during the Mets’ five-game World Series loss to the Royals, but the outfielder was nonetheless instrumental in their return to relevance and would have been a significant loss had he signed elsewhere as a free agent. It appeared that would happen, but after he couldn’t find any offers to his liking on the market, Cespedes shockingly re-signed with the Mets on a three-year, $75MM deal in late January. That agreement came with a catch for the Mets, though: They had to give Cespedes a three-day opt-out window after this year’s World Series.

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Shortly after the Fall Classic between the Cubs and Indians concluded, Cespedes unsurprisingly voided what was left of his contract in order to take another shot at free agency. Having batted .280/.354./530 with 31 home runs in 534 plate appearances this past season, the 31-year-old likely has a better chance than any other impending free agent to land an accord worth upward of nine figures. Cespedes has expressed a desire to spend the rest of his career with the Mets, but it’s difficult to envision him falling into their laps again on a deal similar to the one he just vacated.

This winter’s class of free agents is far less enticing than the group from last year, when fellow outfielders Jason Heyward and Justin Upton were among seven players to secure pacts well in excess of $100MM. That should drive up the price to sign Cespedes, for whom the Mets reportedly aren’t willing to engage in a bidding war or go past the three-year mark on a new contract. Between Cespedes’ opt-out and his latest foray into free agency, the Mets will issue him a qualifying offer. If he signs elsewhere, they’ll receive a first-round draft pick as compensation.

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Predictably, what happens with Cespedes is going to have an enormous effect on how Mets general manager Sandy Alderson approaches the offseason. If he does go unsigned for a while and the Mets wait for a resolution, it could impact their ability to reel in other free agents. Cespedes’ departure would still leave the team with a few satisfactory corner outfield options in Curtis Granderson, Jay Bruce and Michael Conforto, though all are left-handed hitters. Thus, finding a competent right-handed bat like utilityman Steve Pearce – in whom the Mets had summer interest – or Sean Rodriguez via free agency would make sense.

The top center fielder on the roster is defensive standout Juan Lagares, but he hasn’t shown much offensively. With that in mind, pursuing one of the proven free agent center fielders – Dexter Fowler, Ian Desmond or ex-Met Carlos Gomez – could be in the offing. All three are either right-handed or switch-hitters who will cost much less than Cespedes. But the Mets would likely have to act quickly to lock up any of them, which would perhaps mean moving on from Cespedes in the event he delays signing. The trade market could also feature intriguing right-handed options in Andrew McCutchen (Pirates), Lorenzo Cain (Royals), though neither will be easy to acquire if their teams do shop them.

Shifting to the infield, the Mets unsurprisingly plan to tender Duda a contract for 2017. The 30-year-old slugger missed most of 2016 with a stress fracture in his lower back, but a healthy version was an important part of New York’s offense from 2011-15. Re-signing Cespedes or acquiring another high-profile outfielder (the Tigers’ J.D. Martinez is another trade possibility) could lead the Mets to shop Duda, though, as Conforto would perhaps move to first base. Conforto has already acknowledged the possibility, but he’s coming off a discouraging season and still has minor league options remaining. While the Mets might not want to send the promising youngster back to Triple-A Las Vegas, where he mashed over 143 PAs this year, it’s doubtful he would be an upgrade at first over an uninjured Duda.

The Mets may also have to consider third baseman David Wright as at least an occasional right-handed complement to the lefty-swinging Duda or Conforto at first. The seven-time All-Star and longtime face of the franchise combined for a meager 75 appearances over the past two seasons while dealing with spinal stenosis and other issues. Wright underwent neck surgery in June and said earlier this month he’s “really positive and really confident” he’ll be OK, but counting on his health going forward would be risky.

Using a combination of Wilmer Flores, Jose Reyes, Kelly Johnson (an impending free agent), T.J. Rivera and Ty Kelly, the Mets got by fine this year without Wright. But whether they’ll re-sign Johnson or add other insurance at third could depend on what happens at the keystone, as keeping their second-best free agent, Neil Walker, or finding another proven commodity would enable the Mets to deploy their reserves at the hot corner if Wright’s injuries persist. Not re-signing Walker could also put Reyes in position to take over as the full-time second baseman, which would give the Mets one fewer capable infield reserve.

Despite his September back surgery, the Mets do intend to issue Walker a qualifying offer. If Walker exits the Big Apple in the coming weeks, he’d join Daniel Murphy as the second quality second baseman to leave the Mets since last winter. Murphy signed with the Nationals, with whom he starred, paving the way for the Mets to acquire Walker from Pittsburgh. A year later, it’s not hard to imagine a Walker-less Mets team attempting to go the trade route again and inquiring on Brandon Phillips (Reds), Ian Kinsler (Tigers) or Brian Dozier (Twins). That isn’t to imply any will switch uniforms in advance of next season, however: Phillips has a no-trade clause that he used multiple times last offseason; Kinsler, 34, is too important and reasonably priced to ship out if the Tigers plan to contend, though they do want to get younger; and the Mets would have to trade a haul of youthful talent for Dozier (including high-end shortstop prospect Amed Rosario, perhaps) if the Twins were to place him on the block. In terms of free agency, unless the Mets are open to replacing Walker with Public Enemy No. 1 Chase Utley, there won’t be much available.

As is the case with most of its infield (the exception being shortstop, where Asdrubal Cabrera was terrific in his first year as a Met), it’s unclear what the team will do behind the plate in the coming months. Injury-prone starter Travis d’Arnaud took massive steps backward during his 75-game campaign, including losing playing time to light-hitting journeyman Rene Rivera down the stretch. That carried into the Mets’ lone playoff game, in which Rivera started over d’Arnaud. Between his shrinking role this year and the Mets’ summer attempt to trade d’Arnaud for Jonathan Lucroy, they no longer seem sold on the former highly regarded prospect.

Potential upgrades over d’Arnaud will be scarce in free agency, where Matt Wieters, Wilson Ramos, Nick Hundley and Jason Castro lead the pack. Each could pique the Mets’ interest (FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal has already mentioned Wieters as a possibility), though Ramos carries an especially high amount of risk after tearing his ACL in late September. Ramos seems like a strong candidate to end up in the American League, where he would be able to serve as a designated hitter until he’s healthy enough to catch regularly. Thus, one of d’Arnaud, Wieters, Hundley or Castro is probably the best bet to start for the Mets next year, as there won’t be a lot of help on the trade market. While the Yankees could move Brian McCann, transactions between them and their crosstown rivals have been few and far between. Derek Norris of the Padres might be likelier than McCann to change homes in a trade, but he’s fresh off an even worse year than d’Arnaud.

Whether it’ll be d’Arnaud, Rivera, Kevin Plawecki or an outsider doing most of the work behind the plate for the Mets in 2017, he’ll be the receiver for an elite-caliber rotation. Injuries tore through the Mets’ staff in 2016, yet their starters still finished first in the majors in fWAR (18.3) and third in ERA (3.61). Only two Mets (ace Noah Syndergaard and Bartolo Colon) exceeded 180 innings along the way. Syndergaard pitched through bone spurs, while Jacob deGrom, Matt Harvey and Steven Matz all saw their seasons conclude prematurely because of various surgeries. Moreover, Zack Wheeler missed his second straight full campaign.

DeGrom and Matz should be ready for spring after undergoing elbow procedures, but Harvey’s situation seems harder to predict. After establishing himself as a superstar hurler over his first two-plus years in the majors, Harvey stumbled to 92 2/3 mediocre innings this past season and opted in July for thoracic outlet surgery on his right shoulder. Fortunately for the Mets (and those who enjoy world-class pitching), the medical outlook on Harvey is currently optimistic. As for Wheeler, who hasn’t pitched in the majors since 2014 after undergoing March 2015 Tommy John surgery, manager Terry Collins expects the 26-year-old to be ready for spring training.

While it would perhaps be unrealistic to think all of the Mets’ injury cases will avoid setbacks leading up to next April, there’s still enviable starting depth on hand with that group joining Syndergaard and a pair of unexpected 2016 success stories in Seth Lugo and Robert Gsellman. Those starters make the Mets seven deep on paper, which would theoretically increase the odds of Colon’s exit in free agency. However, the fan favorite has been such a stabilizing presence in his three seasons with the Mets that it would be tough for them to lose him. Plus, even a healthy Mets squad would have room for the innings eater in their rotation with Lugo, Gsellman and Wheeler still having minor league options. The Mets would like Colon back, but the soon-to-be 44-year-old wants a two-year deal, per Matthew Cerrone of SNY. Despite his age, the durable and steady Colon just might get a multiyear contract in such a weak market for starters.

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The Mets’ relief corps isn’t as well off as their rotation, and closer Jeurys Familia’s domestic violence arrest is extremely concerning for obvious off-the-field reasons. From a baseball standpoint, it will complicate Alderson’s plans for configuring the roster. Familia is due a sizable raise in arbitration, and it would have been a no-brainer before his arrest to tender the 27-year-old a contract for next season and continue with him and Addison Reed forming one of the sport’s most dominant late-game tandems. Now, depending on further legal developments prior to the upcoming non-tender deadline, it’s fair to wonder if this incident will end up severe enough for the club to move on from him. The Mets have been content to employ Reyes – a domestic violence offender – but his matter was no longer a legal issue by the time they signed him in June, and the 51-game suspension the league handed him had already expired. Further, Reyes came at a pittance. That won’t be true for Familia.

In the admittedly unlikely event the Mets cut the cord on Familia (or in the more plausible case of a lengthy suspension), it could put them in the market for Kenley Jansen or Mark Melancon – two of the best soon-to-be available closers. Fellow ninth-inning ace Aroldis Chapman is at the top of the free agent heap, but would the Mets really add another player associated with domestic violence? Wade Davis (Royals) and/or David Robertson (White Sox) might hit the trade block, and either would be worth looking into in light of Familia’s situation.

Even if Familia remains with the Mets and escapes an austere brand of discipline from commissioner Rob Manfred, there will still be questions about the Mets’ bullpen heading into 2017. Familia, Reed and fellow righty Hansel Robles each threw 77 2/3 effective innings this season, but the rest of the group isn’t nearly as settled.

Left-hander Jerry Blevins and late-season pickup Fernando Salas are going to the open market after thriving in New York this year. Neither two-time Met Jon Niese, who did anything but thrive in 2016, nor Jim Henderson will return. Erik Goeddel, Logan Verrett, Sean Gilmartin all struggled over a fair amount of innings (Verrett’s 2.84 ERA as a reliever looks much better than his 5.17 FIP), while Gabriel Ynoa had trouble across a smaller sample size. There’s also Josh Edgin, whose numbers in 10 1/3 frames weren’t great. It was his first action since March 2015 Tommy John procedure, however, and he closed the year on an encouraging note with 10 scoreless appearances over his final 11 outings. He’ll probably factor into the Mets’ plans again next year as a cheap lefty. Fellow southpaw Josh Smoker could be in the mix, too, as he overcame a couple woeful weeks from late August to early September to log 11 scoreless showings in his last 12. Lugo could take another bullpen spot, though earning a big league rotation job or starting in the minors seem like more realistic outcomes. Regardless, he was superb in his 17 innings as a reliever in 2016, notching a 2.65 ERA, 8.47 K/9 and 3.18 BB/9 in nine appearances.

If the Mets try to to bolster the back end of their bullpen with free agents other than Jansen or Melancon, they could opt for Salas, Joe Blanton, Santiago Casilla, Greg Holland, Sergio Romo or Brad Ziegler, among others, from the right side. Some of the non-Chapman lefties on the market will include Blevins, Brett Cecil, Mike Dunn and Boone Logan.

In terms of building a team, Familia has clearly made Alderson’s job harder. On the bright side for the longtime executive, the Mets still have one of the league’s foremost starting staffs and Reed, who was phenomenal this year. Therefore, whatever happens with Familia, the club should remain better than most at preventing runs next season. In the meantime, with the Mets potentially losing their offensive centerpiece, Cespedes, and Walker, Alderson will have to assemble a lineup capable of supporting the club’s array of talented pitchers. As Alderson indicated after re-signing Cespedes last winter, the franchise is willing to spend to put a championship contender on the field. So, whether it means winning the Cespedes sweepstakes again or making some other notable splash(es), it’s going to be an active offseason for the Mets.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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2016-17 Offseason Outlook MLBTR Originals New York Mets

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Offseason Outlook: Chicago White Sox

By Tim Dierkes | November 5, 2016 at 1:24pm CDT

MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams.  Click here for the other entries in this series.

After a fourth straight losing season, the White Sox have not revealed their organizational strategy.  Do they finally commit to a roster tear-down?  Or will the team spend another winter attempting to add the right veteran pieces to complement its talented core?

Guaranteed Contracts

  • James Shields, SP: $44MM through 2018.  Shields can opt out after 2016 World Series.  If Shields does not opt out, White Sox are responsible for $20MM for 2017-18.  Contract includes $16MM club option for 2019 with a $2MM buyout; White Sox would be responsible for buyout.
  • Melky Cabrera, LF: $15MM through 2017.
  • Jose Abreu, 1B: $34MM through 2019.  Can opt into arbitration system for 2017.
  • David Robertson, RP: $25MM through 2018.
  • Chris Sale, SP: $13MM through 2017.  Includes $12.5MM club option for 2018 with a $1MM buyout and $15MM club option for 2019 with a $1MM buyout.  2019 option increases to $16MM with Cy Young from 2016-18.
  • Jose Quintana, SP: $16.85MM through 2019.  Includes $10.5MM club option with a $1MM buyout for 2019 and $10.5MM club option for 2020 with a $1MM buyout.  2020 option can reach $13-14MM based on 2016-19 Cy Young voting.
  • Adam Eaton, RF/CF: $19.9MM through 2019.  Includes $9.5MM club option with a $1.5MM buyout for 2020 and $10.5MM club option for 2021 with a $1.5MM buyout.  2021 option can reach $13MM based on 2016-20 MVP voting.
  • Nate Jones, RP: $5.85MM through 2018.  Includes club options for 2019-21, with salaries depending on games finished and on whether Jones requires right elbow surgery by end of 2018 season.

Contract Options

  • Matt Albers, RP: $3MM club option with a $250K buyout (declined).

Arbitration Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; link to MLBTR projections)

  • Miguel Gonzalez (5.073) – $2.6MM
  • Todd Frazier (5.071) – $13.5MM
  • Brett Lawrie (5.055) – $5.1MM
  • Dan Jennings (3.171) – $1.2MM
  • Avisail Garcia (3.167) – $3.4MM
  • Zach Putnam (3.135) – $975K
  • Jake Petricka (3.044) – $900K
  • Jose Abreu (3.000) – $12MM (educated guess, outside of arbitration model)
  • Non-tender candidates: Lawrie, Garcia

Free Agents

  • Justin Morneau, Austin Jackson, Alex Avila, Jacob Turner (outrighted off 40-man roster)

Chicago White Sox Depth Chart; Chicago White Sox Payroll Information

In early October, Robin Ventura announced he was stepping down as White Sox manager after five seasons.  Ventura’s contract was up anyway, and it’s not clear whether the Sox had any intention of offering him a new contract.  The team almost immediately promoted bench coach Rick Renteria to manage the club, on a term that has not yet been reported.  GM Rick Hahn chose not to interview other candidates, as Renteria was atop the team’s “living document” of potential future managers.  Renteria had a difficult experience with the Cubs, managing them in a 2014 rebuilding season, doing well enough to warrant a second year, and then getting fired when Joe Maddon became available.

Rick RenteriaI don’t know if the hiring of a less experienced manager like Renteria is an indication that he will preside over a 2017 rebuild for the White Sox, as Hahn has chosen not to tip his hand on the team’s offseason direction.  Hahn did posit in August that “by the time we make our first or second transaction, publicly it will be fairly clear as to our direction.”  As White Sox fans await this odd reveal, I’ll tackle this post from each direction.

In a rebuild scenario, the team could move a host of players that clearly won’t be part of the next good White Sox team: Todd Frazier, Melky Cabrera, Miguel Gonzalez, David Robertson, Brett Lawrie, Avisail Garcia, and James Shields.  Frazier, 31 in February, is coming off a career-best 40 home runs and a career-worst .225 batting average.  MLBTR projects a $13.5MM salary for 2017, after which he’ll reach free agency.  The White Sox could get something useful in return, but only a handful of contenders are seeking third basemen, and the free agent market features Justin Turner and Luis Valbuena.  Cabrera is also an above-average hitter, but his value is limited by his poor defense and $15MM salary.  Robertson struggled with his control and blew seven saves on the season, but his two year, $25MM commitment would appeal to teams not willing to pay full freight for Aroldis Chapman, Kenley Jansen, or Mark Melancon.  Gonzalez bounced back as a solid back-end starter, which is hard to come by in the 2016-17 free agent market.  Lawrie, Garcia, and Shields have little to no trade value, but moving Cabrera and Robertson would clear $40MM in commitments, and trading Frazier and Gonzalez would free up $16MM+ that would have been spent on their arbitration salaries.  It seems likely that Avisail Garcia’s time with the White Sox will come to an end soon, as the 25-year-old has shown few signs of being a useful Major Leaguer after 409 career games, 356 of which came with the White Sox.

Trading players like Frazier, Cabrera, Robertson, and Gonzalez might return a handful of decent prospects and free up payroll space but would do little to change the long-term trajectory of the White Sox.  To truly reboot the franchise and try something different, Hahn and executive vice president Kenny Williams will have to entertain trades for any or all of Chris Sale, Jose Quintana, and Jose Abreu.  Sale and Quintana are immensely valuable assets.  Sale is among the ten best starters in baseball, and Quintana has to be in the top 20.  Both lefties will enter the 2017 season at just 28 years of age, with clean bills of health.  Both have extremely team-friendly contracts.  On the open market, Sale would be worth over $100MM for 2017-19 alone.  Instead, he’ll be paid $40.5MM at most.  Quintana will be paid at most $40.35MM over the next four seasons, which would also be valued over $100MM.  To top it off, there is no one remotely similar to Sale or Quintana in this year’s free agent market.

Nearly every team in baseball would have interest in Sale and Quintana.  Teams with a strong need for starting pitching this winter, like the Marlins, Braves, Astros, and Angels, would obviously be interested.  Others, who may add on the “only if it’s an ace” condition, like the Cubs, Dodgers, Red Sox, and Yankees, would be in as well. According to an August report from Bruce Levine of CBS Chicago, the Red Sox were unwilling to part with center fielder Jackie Bradley Jr. for one of the White Sox aces at the trade deadline.  That gives you an idea of a potential headliner, though – an established, five-win under-30 player who is under control for four more years.  Other centerpiece examples could include Starling Marte, George Springer, or Christian Yelich.  The White Sox could also try for less-established, but extremely valuable young players like Yoan Moncada, Lucas Giolito, or Andrew Benintendi.  The question is whether Hahn would enter the offseason hellbent on trading one or both of his aces to kick off a true rebuild, or if he’d set a price and only make the trade if that price is met.  The latter approach makes more sense, since both pitchers will still be very valuable at the July trade deadline as well as next offseason (and beyond).

In the event of a rebuild, the White Sox must also consider trading first baseman Jose Abreu, who might earn $40-45MM through arbitration over the next three seasons.  While Abreu’s power has slipped since his rookie season, he’ll turn 30 in January and has a good $20MM of surplus value in comparison to market prices for power hitters.  Teams such as the Red Sox, Orioles, Rangers, Rockies, Astros, Yankees, and Blue Jays are a few possible matches.  Right fielder Adam Eaton would have immense trade value, with five years of potential control remaining.  However, I see Eaton as a potential source of stability, someone who can anchor the roster even if the front office starts shipping out other top players.

We haven’t even mentioned Carlos Rodon, Tim Anderson, and Nate Jones yet.  Plainly, the White Sox have too many good or great players to sell most of them off in a rebuild.  Owner Jerry Reinsdorf is 80 years old.  Shouldn’t this team be going for it?  Let’s look at what that might require.

The White Sox have had Opening Day payrolls in the $115-120MM range in three of the past four seasons.  They peaked at about $128MM in 2011, so that might be the ceiling.  The Sox have about $74MM committed to eight players under contract for 2017.  Add another $19MM for Frazier, Gonzalez, Jennings, Petricka, and Putnam, and we’re at $93MM for 13 players.

First and foremost on the agenda should be a catcher.  The White Sox pretty much have to go outside the organization for a backstop.  They could sign one of Matt Wieters or Jason Castro in free agency, or trade for the Yankees’ Brian McCann.  Signing Castro to a two-year deal in the $15MM range would be a measured way to fill the void.

At second base, the White Sox must decide whether they would like to bring the perennially disappointing or injured Lawrie back for $5MM or so through arbitration.  I’d vote no, because payroll will be tight and they can plug in Tyler Saladino for a much cheaper solution while possibly getting similar production.  It seems likely that Lawrie can bring back some kind of spare part in trade prior to the non-tender deadline.  Free agent options at second base include Neil Walker, Chase Utley, and Sean Rodriguez, if the White Sox want to go that route.

Center field is one of the more obvious areas of upgrade for the White Sox.  Adam Eaton had an excellent season as the team’s primary right fielder and should probably stay there.  Dexter Fowler, a player to whom the Sox made an offer last winter, is a free agent again and remains a strong fit.  One big concern is that Fowler will come with a qualifying offer attached, meaning the Sox would have to surrender the #12 pick in the 2017 draft if they sign him.  Unless Fowler comes at a serious discount from our projected lucrative four-year contract, he’s not an ideal addition.  Ian Desmond comes with a similar concern.  Instead, the White Sox could roll the dice on Carlos Gomez, who struggled mightily for parts of the last two seasons but showed promise in about a month’s worth of time with the Rangers at the end of the season.  Gomez could sign a one-year deal for around $13MM in an attempt to rebuild value in Chicago, assuming they’re willing to tangle with agent Scott Boras.  The relationship between Boras and the White Sox has had contentious moments dating back to the 90s.  While it has softened in recent years, I don’t know if they would be able to get together on a free agent deal for players like Gomez, Wieters, or Kendrys Morales.

To balance out the lineup, the White Sox could use a left-handed designated hitter.  Call it the Justin Morneau/Adam LaRoche role.  This could be filled by a switch-hitter as well, with free agents such as Carlos Beltran and Kendrys Morales fitting the bill.  If the goal is more to find a bat that can hit right-handed pitching well, then certainly Edwin Encarnacion is worth considering.  However, a contract for Encarnacion would annihilate Abreu’s franchise record of $68MM and bust the payroll.  Even the $12-14MM types like Beltran and Morales could be excessive for this bat-only role.  Free agents who have been solid against righties over the past three years and would come with palatable price tags include Adam Lind, Luis Valbuena, Pedro Alvarez, Chris Coghlan, and Brandon Moss.  None of those acquisitions would excite White Sox fans, but a high-priced designated hitter is a poor allocation of limited payroll space.  One could argue that the White Sox are already paying good money for a pair of DH-types who are dragging down the defense, in Melky Cabrera and Jose Abreu.  Another possibility would be to pencil Cabrera in for most of the DH at-bats, plugging the hole in left field with a defensively superior addition like trade candidate Brett Gardner.

So far we’ve added three players (or player types) to fill position player holes, and it would require about $27MM in salary for 2017.  This conservative offseason approach already requires $120MM for 16 players.  Accounting for minimum salary players, it’s difficult to see room for more significant additions.  Payroll will be tight, making the $10MM owed to James Shields in 2017 all the more painful.  Attempting to dump some of Cabrera’s salary is worth considering.  Given his subpar left field defense, he’s not providing good value to the White Sox on a $15MM salary.   Still, he was an above average hitter in two of the last three seasons, so the Sox might be able to find a team to take $8MM or so of the commitment.  The problem is that the savings might have to be reallocated to a new left fielder.  Eric Thames, coming off three huge years in Korea, could be a cheap roll of the dice for a team that would need some things to break their way to reach the playoffs.

I think the White Sox would find a taker for the majority of the $25MM owed to Robertson over the next two years, though his loss would create a hole in the bullpen.  Robertson just had minor knee surgery, while Putnam had elbow surgery in August and Petricka had hip surgery in June.  A good case can be made for adding to this bullpen rather than subtracting from it.  A late-inning lefty would be a good fit, with Brett Cecil, Travis Wood, Boone Logan, Mike Dunn, and Jerry Blevins looking like the better free agents.

The White Sox look very strong in the first four rotation spots, with Sale, Quintana, Rodon, and Gonzalez.  Shields, 35 in December, was brutal in 22 starts for the White Sox after being acquired in December, and his contract presents a real problem.  If not for the $22MM the Sox owe Shields over the next two years, he’d be a release candidate.  The contract might force the club to give him a look as their fifth starter heading into 2017, though cutting Shields now might be better for the team’s record.  It seems unlikely that the White Sox could bite the bullet and release Shields and also pour additional money into the rotation opening.

Most of the proposed roster solutions here have come from free agency.  In reality, Hahn will certainly look at the trade market.  The White Sox remain light on prospects, and would have to consider trading top names like Carson Fulmer, Zack Collins, Spencer Adams, or Zack Burdi to bring in Major League talent.  Trading from this group seems like digging a deeper long-term hole.

Whichever path Reinsdorf, Williams, and Hahn choose, I don’t expect a major organizational shift from the White Sox this offseason.  I can’t picture a $150MM+ payroll and a free agent megadeal or two, nor do I expect the team to clean house by trading Sale, Quintana, Abreu, and others.  This front office has taken the middle road before; perhaps there is enough talent on the roster to try it one last time.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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2016-17 Offseason Outlook Chicago White Sox MLBTR Originals

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Offseason Outlook: St. Louis Cardinals

By charliewilmoth | November 5, 2016 at 10:12am CDT

MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams. Click here for the other entries in this series.

The Cardinals remain in a strong position despite missing the playoffs in 2016, and they’ll enter the offseason hoping to add an outfielder and to sort through their starting pitching depth.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Mike Leake, SP: $68MM through 2020 (includes $5MM buyout on 2021 mutual option)
  • Matt Carpenter, IF: $39.75MM through 2019 (includes $2MM buyout on 2020 team option)
  • Adam Wainwright, SP: $39.5MM through 2018
  • Jedd Gyorko, IF: $29MM through 2019 (includes $1M buyout on 2020 team option; the Padres are paying a portion of the deal)
  • Kolten Wong, IF: $24.25MM through 2020 (includes $1M buyout on 2021 team option)
  • Yadier Molina, C: $16MM through 2017 (includes $2MM buyout on 2018 mutual option)
  • Jhonny Peralta, IF: $10MM through 2017
  • Lance Lynn, SP: $7.5MM through 2017
  • Zach Duke, RP: $5.5MM through 2017
  • Jonathan Broxton, RP: $3.75MM through 2017
  • Brayan Pena, C: $2.5MM through 2017
  • Aledmys Diaz, SS: $2MM through 2017

Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; link to MLBTR projections)

  • Trevor Rosenthal (4.058) – $6.3MM
  • Matt Adams (4.033) – $2.8MM
  • Seth Maness (3.154) – $1.6MM
  • Kevin Siegrist (3.116) – $1.9MM
  • Carlos Martinez (3.073) – $5.3MM
  • Michael Wacha (3.062) – $3.2MM
  • Non-tender candidates: None

Club Options

  • Matt Holliday, OF: $17MM or a $1M buyout (the Cardinals are expected to decline the option)
  • Jaime Garcia, SP: $12MM or a $500K buyout (the Cardinals have exercised the option)
  • Jordan Walden, RP: $5.25MM or $250K buyout (the Cardinals have declined the option)
  • Seung-hwan Oh, RP: $2.75MM (option already vested because Oh finished more than 30 games in 2016)

Free Agents

  • Brandon Moss, Jerome Williams

Cardinals Depth Chart; Cardinals Payroll Information

In 2016, the Cardinals missed the playoffs for the first time since 2010, winning only (or “only”) 86 games. The team said goodbye to Matt Holliday after the season, beginning what’s likely to be an organizational transition from a core of Holliday, Adam Wainwright, Yadier Molina, Jhonny Peralta and Matt Carpenter to one that’s much younger.

Of course, this seems to be a common refrain for the Cardinals, who have had winning seasons in 16 of the last 17 years, transitioning from their previous core of Albert Pujols, Chris Carpenter, Jim Edmonds and Scott Rolen without a hitch. Among the Cardinals’ younger players, there were positive signs in 2016, as Aledmys Diaz, Stephen Piscotty, Carlos Martinez, Alex Reyes and Randal Grichuk all contributed solid value. The Cardinals will therefore keep trying to do what they always do, replacing good players with more good ones while making perhaps one big acquisition each winter. They’ll face an uphill battle as the divisional rival of a brilliant Cubs team, but they have way too much talent not to strive for the postseason.

With Molina and Brayan Pena (who returned from the DL in September after missing much of the season to knee issues) under contract for next season, the catcher position is mostly set. It wouldn’t hurt the Cardinals to find a solid third backstop in case of another DL stint for Molina or Pena, however, since both have significant injury histories and aren’t getting any younger. (22-year-old Carson Kelly is currently the Cardinals’ next man up, and he could benefit from a bit more seasoning at Triple-A.) A lucrative minor league deal (along the lines of the one the Red Sox gave Sandy Leon last offseason) to lure a solid third option might be a good move.

Likewise, the Cardinals won’t need much infield help. Jedd Gyorko — who swatted 30 home runs after being acquired in what amounted to a salary dump by the Padres — was a revelation for the Cards last season, and with Carpenter, Diaz and Peralta flanking him and other capable situational options at various positions (including Matt Adams, Kolten Wong and Greg Garcia), the Cards have significant depth.

If the Cardinals are going to make a big move to add offense, they’ll probably grab an outfielder. The loss of former top prospect Oscar Taveras in a tragic offseason accident two years back still looms large for the franchise. Piscotty can be counted on for everyday at-bats, and Grichuk has probably shown enough to warrant everyday play as well, even though his on-base percentages will likely continue to underwhelm. Tommy Pham has proven as least modestly useful as well. With both Holliday and Brandon Moss coming off the payroll, though, the Cardinals are probably short a big bat, and the outfield is the only obvious place to put one.

The Cardinals are reportedly most interested in acquiring a center fielder, and might prefer to do so on the trade market. Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch identifies Charlie Blackmon, A.J. Pollock and Adam Eaton as possibilities (although, as our own Steve Adams notes, the White Sox probably won’t be inclined to trade Eaton). Of the other two, Pollock is the only righty, and from my perspective, a right-handed hitter might be a slightly better fit. The Cards’ lineup is fairly balanced, but they already have plenty of left-handed hitting in Carpenter, Adams, Wong and Garcia, and their team OPS was 35 points better against righties than lefties last season. Pollock is the better fit from a fielding perspective, too — advanced statistics suggest Grichuk is a better defensive center fielder than Blackmon, and it’s unclear whether the alignment of Blackmon in center and Grichuk in a corner would provide enough of a defensive upgrade to justify the Cardinals’ reported focus on center fielders rather than corner outfielders.

Of course, there have yet been no meaningful indications that the Diamondbacks are interested in trading Pollock, and they might prefer to wait to deal him until he recovers value after an injury-marred 2016 campaign. Other names could come into play as well, and perhaps the Cardinals could also turn to a relatively robust outfield free agent market, which features the likes of Ian Desmond and Carlos Gomez, both of whom are relatively young and play quality center field defense. 30-year-old Dexter Fowler, too, will be available as an even higher-value target.

The Cardinals could also circle back and re-sign Moss, although Goold notes that Moss seems to be down their list of priorities right now. They didn’t extend him a qualifying offer, which makes sense — he hit 28 home runs last season, but with a low batting average (.225) and on-base percentage (.300). Re-signing Moss would certainly not be the worst idea, although it’s easy to understand the organization’s reasons for wanting to look elsewhere first, given the variety of potential alternatives.

The Cardinals appear set to welcome Wainwright, Carlos Martinez, Mike Leake and perhaps Michael Wacha (who the Cards say they still view as a starter despite a 2016 season marred by health concerns) back to their rotation next year, with talented newcomer Alex Reyes also likely set to receive significant playing time. They can also probably count on getting something from Lance Lynn, who missed the entire 2016 season after having Tommy John surgery but was pitching in Triple-A by the end of the year. There are other options as well, like Luke Weaver, Mike Mayers, Tyler Lyons, Marco Gonzales and Tim Cooney. (The last three of those pitchers are returning from injury, and Gonzales and probably Cooney are better bets to contribute later in the season rather than earlier.)

Jaime GarciaThat depth left the Cardinals with a decision regarding 30-year-old Jaime Garcia, whose $12MM option they recently exercised. Given Garcia’s relative youth, his experience as a starter, and his outstanding ground-ball rate (56.5% for his career), he’s worth that kind of scratch, so the Cards’ call wasn’t a surprise. They could still try to deal him, though, and given the weak free agent market for starting pitching, Garcia would probably command at least a decent return.

Garcia alone wouldn’t be enough to acquire the sort of outfield talent the Cardinals are likely to seek, however. Perhaps an alternate route would be for the Cardinals to keep Garcia and trade another starting pitcher for a good outfielder. There is no indication the Cards are considering such a possibility, but it’s worth keeping in mind, since keeping a competent starter in Garcia and dangling a young, controllable arm like Wacha could be a way to get trade talks going. There’s precedent for such a trade, too, in the form of the November 2014 deal that sent Shelby Miller and Tyrell Jenkins to Atlanta for Jason Heyward and Jordan Walden. Dealing Peralta could be another option, since the Cardinals have infield depth and Peralta only has one year left on his contract.

In the bullpen, Korean closer Seung-hwan Oh will be back after a brilliant first season in the US, and Kevin Siegrist, 2015 Rule 5 pick Matthew Bowman and ground-ball specialist Seth Maness (who had UCL surgery in August but could be ready in time for Spring Training if all goes well) are all likely to return after 2016 seasons that were generally effective. Jonathan Broxton, too, had a passable first season in St. Louis and should be back in 2017.

Trevor Rosenthal, though, walked a way-too-high 6.5 batters per nine, suffering through a shoulder injury and ultimately losing his closer job to Oh. Rosenthal is set to be paid a hefty $6.3MM this season, but the Cardinals would seem to have no choice but to tender him, since he’s only 26, throws in the high 90s and still struck out 12.5 batters per nine innings even in what was otherwise a terrible season. Zach Duke, meanwhile, had Tommy John surgery in mid-October, and the Cardinals declined Walden’s option after two injury-riddled years. It’s likely the Cardinals can get some relief mileage out of some of their less established arms (including Sam Tuivailala and Miguel Socolovich) and starting depth. Someone like Lyons or Gonzales could ultimately replace the left-handed Duke. It wouldn’t be surprising, though, if the Cardinals sought out a veteran bullpen arm (either left-handed or right-handed).

The Cardinals’ offseason, then, could follow a variety of possible paths. The organization could potentially be punished for former scouting director Chris Correa’s hacking of the Astros’ database, and it’s unclear whether that punishment could affect the team’s drafting or something else. For now, though, the Cardinals will proceed as if they’ll have no restrictions. While there’s potential for the Cards to pull off a blockbuster, given the team’s pitching depth and outfield needs, the franchise seems unlikely to veer off its current path, and they’ll enter 2017 hoping to field yet another competitive club.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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2016-17 Offseason Outlook MLBTR Originals St. Louis Cardinals

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Offseason Outlook: Detroit Tigers

By Steve Adams | November 4, 2016 at 11:15am CDT

MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams.  Click here for the other entries in this series.

“We want to run the organization without having to go over our means. We want to stay competitive, but at the same time, this organization has been working way above its means for some time.” ~ Tigers GM Al Avila, Oct. 18, 2016

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Miguel Cabrera, 1B: $180MM through 2023 (including $8MM buyout of 2024 club option)
  • Justin Upton, LF: $110.625MM through 2021 (may opt out of contract after 2017 season)
  • Jordan Zimmermann, RHP: $92MM through 2020
  • Justin Verlander, RHP: $84MM through 2019 (plus 2020 vesting option)
  • Victor Martinez, DH: $36MM through 2018
  • Anibal Sanchez, RHP: $21MM through 2017 (including $5MM buyout of 2018 club option)
  • Ian Kinsler, 2B: $16MM through 2017 (including $5MM buyout of 2018 club option)
  • J.D. Martinez, RF: $11.75MM through 2017
  • Mike Pelfrey, RHP: $8MM through 2017
  • Francisco Rodriguez, RHP: $6MM through 2017
  • Mark Lowe, RHP: $5.5MM through 2017

Arbitration Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projected salaries via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

  • Andrew Romine (4.049) – $1.2MM
  • Jose Iglesias (4.036) – $3.2MM
  • Justin Wilson (4.035) – $2.7MM
  • Alex Wilson (3.038) – $1.2MM
  • Bruce Rondon (3.037) – $900K
  • Nick Castellanos (3.029) – $2.8MM
  • Non-tender candidates: Romine

Free Agents

  • Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Erick Aybar, Casey McGehee

Other Financial Commitments

  • Prince Fielder: $6MM paid to Rangers annually through 2020

Tigers Depth Chart; Tigers Payroll Information

The comment from Avila that opened this outlook was one of many headline-grabbing quotes he delivered last month, as the second-year GM’s words were the first significant indication that Tigers owner Mike Ilitch may not continue his free-spending ways. Avila was charged with spending aggressively to assemble a contender last year in his first winter atop Detroit’s baseball ops hierarchy — business as usual in the Detroit front office — and responded by shelling out more than $270MM to sign Justin Upton, Jordan Zimmermann, Mike Pelfrey, Mark Lowe and Jarrod Saltalamacchia while also swinging trades for bullpen help in the form of Francisco Rodriguez and Justin Wilson.

The results, clearly, were not encouraging. Though the Tigers finished with 86 wins and were in contention for much of the year, each of the free agents signed to a multi-year deal flopped in year one of their contract. Zimmermann suffered injuries and faded after a brilliant start, while Upton looked lost at the plate until a strong six-week finish. Pelfrey’s contract was baffling from the get-go, and Lowe was unable to recreate the terrific 2015 campaign he authored with the Mariners and Blue Jays. The trade results were more promising, at least. K-Rod proved still capable of handling a late-inning role, and Wilson posted terrific peripherals that suggest his 4.14 ERA will improve in 2017 and beyond (10.0 K/9, 2.6 BB/9, 54.9 percent ground-ball rate, 3.02 SIERA).

The disappointing performance of last winter’s additions, though, didn’t simply cause the Tigers to miss out on the 2016 postseason. Rather, they further clogged what was already a dreadful long-term payroll outlook and seemingly served as the tipping point to curb some of the team’s offseason aggressiveness. That’s not to suggest that a full tear-down is in the offing. Franchise cornerstones like Miguel Cabrera and Justin Verlander — both of whom have full no-trade protection via 10-and-5 rights anyhow — seem unlikely to move. Zimmermann, too, has full no-trade rights early in the five-year deal he inked last November. Upton, meanwhile, can block trades to 20 teams and would be difficult to unload. The Tigers would probably love to deal Sanchez, Pelfrey and Lowe, but it seems unlikely that any team would line up to take on those onerous financial commitments. If they’re to be moved, the Tigers will have to chip in some cash or take on a similarly unwanted deal.

Where, then, do they turn to accomplish Avila’s stated goals of getting younger and trimming some of the payroll? Detroit wasted such little time in beginning the process that this outlook required a last-minute update before publishing. Avila’s first move of the offseason came less than 24 hours after the completion of the World Series, as he traded Cameron Maybin and his $9MM club option to the Angels in exchange for young right-hander Victor Alcantara. The move sheds Maybin’s $9MM salary next year and also prevented the Tigers from needing to pay a $1MM buyout. Beyond that, Detroit added a hard-throwing prospect to its minor league ranks. The return on Maybin wasn’t especially strong, but he’s a one-year rental coming off an injury-shortened season, and it didn’t appear to be a huge secret that the Tigers preferred to deal their center fielder.

Rodriguez’s $6MM option was probably an easier call, as it came with a $2MM buyout, thus it a net $4MM decision for the team. Detroit exercised the option shortly after trading Maybin, so Rodriguez looks to be in the fold for the time being, although there’s still a chance that the Tigers could field offers for him later this winter. The game’s emphasis on relief pitching is trending up, after all, and while no one is going to mistake K-Rod for the powerhouse reliever he was during his peak with the Angels, he’s still a very serviceable late-inning arm on a reasonable one-year deal. Moving K-Rod to a club that can’t afford to pursue one of the top free-agent closers or to a team looking to use him to set up for a top-flight closer could net another interesting young piece.

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Beyond Rodriguez, right fielder J.D. Martinez (pictured) is perhaps the most palatable veteran for the Tigers to shop this winter. While the loss of an elite bat will unequivocally sting, Martinez is likely headed for a $100MM+ contract next winter, and extension talks with him aren’t likely to come with any kind of notable discount just one year removed from such a tantalizing payday.

MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk recently looked at Martinez’s extension candidacy and suggested that something in the vein of $120MM-140MM over five to six years would be a realistic price (depending on the inclusion of an opt-out clause). That indeed seems like a fair prognostication for a player who just turned 29 and has laid waste to opposing pitchers with a .299/.357/.540 slash line and 83 home runs in 401 games since coming to Detroit. Avila candidly said he doesn’t foresee a long-term deal happening with Martinez, making him a natural trade candidate. Though Martinez comes with just one more year of control (and some defensive question marks), his imposing bat and reasonable price tag could net a package fronted by at least one premium young prospect while also trimming some money off the payroll. The Mets (if Yoenis Cespedes signs elsewhere), Giants, Blue Jays, Orioles, Rangers, Mariners, Angels and Dodgers all seem like plausible landing spots (to varying degrees).

Kinsler, too, figures to have widespread trade appeal, though as a similarly excellent player with two years of club control remaining ($11MM 2017 salary, $10MM 2018 option), the asking price could be greater and the urgency to deal him lesser. Certainly it’s fair to assume Avila and his staff would entertain offers on Kinsler, but contending teams in need of a definitive second base upgrade aren’t as plentiful as those looking for corner outfield sluggers. The Dodgers, Mets (if Neil Walker departs) and possibly the Angels stand out as win-now clubs that could look to upgrade at second base.

Victor Martinez represents another highly productive veteran controlled for two more seasons, but the $36MM he’s owed for his age-38 and age-39 seasons is probably excessive, and his market would be limited to AL-only teams with open DH slots. That’s not to say a deal couldn’t be worked out — the Dave-Dombrowski-led Red Sox do have a new opening at DH, for instance — but trading V-Mart looks decidedly more cumbersome than parting with the other middle-of-the-order Martinez on the roster.

With all the talk of selling pieces and trimming payroll, though, it’s easy to forget that the Tigers won 86 games this season and could be firmly in the thick of things in the AL Central next year with better health from some of their veterans. A rebound from Zimmermann, for instance, would give the team a strong quartet of Verlander, Zimmermann, American League Rookie of the Year candidate Michael Fulmer and Daniel Norris on which to lean in the rotation. Meanwhile, the strides made by Nick Castellanos at third base give the team another intriguing bat to pair with Cabrera and a hopefully resurgent Upton in the middle of the order. Jose Iglesias is an elite defender, so much so that his glove largely offset the decline in his offense this year. A rebound with the bat shouldn’t be ruled out for Iglesias, as his K/BB numbers remained identical in 2016 while his BABIP fell off (in part due to an increase in fly balls). With some combination of Kinsler and/or either Martinez likely to return in 2017 as well, the makings of a strong lineup are present.

And in the bullpen, Rodriguez could again anchor an improved relief corps if he’s not dealt. Even if the Tigers do part ways with the game’s active saves leader, there’s still hope. Wilson’s peripherals, as mentioned above, were outstanding. Young Bruce Rondon took a huge step forward with a 2.97 ERA on the season and a 1.52 ERA over his final 25 games. Joe Jimenez, one of the top bullpen prospects in baseball, logged a 1.51 ERA and 13.1 K/9 across three minor league levels and should be a factor at some point in the first half of the 2017 season. Alex Wilson quietly recorded his third straight season with a sub-3.00 ERA and his second in which he reached 70 innings.

Detroit could look to supplement that core group, though paying top dollar early in the offseason (as it has in some instances in the past) doesn’t seem likely. Instead, help could come in the form of controllable relief arms via trades. (Alcantara, conceivably, could occupy a relief role later this year.) Alternatively, the Tigers could look to opportunistically wait out the free-agent market and snatch up a quality setup arm on a modest one- or two-year deal late in the winter. The relief market somewhat resembles a game of musical chairs each winter, and inevitably there’s a name or two that’s left standing without a big contract when the music stops.

Center field, too, presents an opportunity to make a value play, though Avila suggested immediately after the Maybin trade that his team’s center field job will be a “wide-open competition.” That could give out-of-options outfielders Anthony Gose and Tyler Collins a shot at cracking the roster, and young JaCoby Jones will certainly get a look as well. Jones could use more time to improve on his offense and familiarize himself with center field (most of his experience is in the infield), though, and Collins hit poorly in both Triple-A and in the Majors in 2016. Gose, meanwhile, was suspended by the team this summer for arguing with Toledo manager Lloyd McClendon, who is now the Tigers’ Major League hitting coach and also posted a .521 OPS in Triple-A. If Detroit does take to the open market to look for a more affordable option than Maybin, then names like Peter Bourjos, Michael Bourn and even old friend Austin Jackson are among the options.

As for other possible spots where a low-cost addition might make sense, the utility infield and backup catcher roles need to be addressed. It’s possible that Romine is tendered a contract and reprises the role he’s filled in Detroit since 2014, but his bat has never developed. Dixon Machado represents a mildly cheaper (by about $700K) in-house alternative, and the team could also look to re-sign Erick Aybar to fill the role or pursue Ruben Tejada, as either could be an offensive upgrade. James McCann still hasn’t hit much in Detroit, but all accounts seem to indicate that the Tigers think he’s their man behind the plate in the long run. He figures to get at least another year to prove them right, so a backup option like Geovany Soto, Drew Butera or even old friend Alex Avila (GM Al Avila’s son) could fit.

A new corner outfielder could make sense in the event of a J.D. Martinez trade, especially now that Maybin is gone. In addition to the aforementioned Gose and Collins, the Tigers have another out-of-options outfielder in Steven Moya that could compete for everyday at-bats in right field. Moya ripped 25 homers between Triple-A and the Majors last season in just 526 combined plate appearances, so his power is certainly intriguing even if it comes with a questionable OBP and some defensive uncertainty. Affordable value plays on the free-agent market could include Colby Rasmus (who is coming off a pair of surgeries and a down season) or former big leaguer Eric Thames, who has dominated the Korea Baseball Organization over the past three seasons.

And if the team is truly interested in forming a sustainable core that doesn’t force it to play “above its means,” perhaps there’s the possibility of an extension for a younger star this winter. Fulmer is the most appealing youngster to lock up, but he’s still three years from arbitration eligibility, so there’s little in the sense of urgency. At the same time, his distance from significant earnings make it easier to sign him at a lower cost. Castellanos, too, could be an extension candidate if the team believes his 2016 strides at the plate and in the field to be legitimate improvement instead of a short-term blip on the radar. And even Rondon, who a year ago was sent home due to the Tigers’ discontent with his “effort level,” could be the recipient of a modest multi-year deal that would prevent his arbitration price from soaring in the event that he eventually inherits the ninth inning.

The potential spending standstill has been a long time coming and one that we’ve speculated about here at MLBTR on multiple occasions. Eventually, the Tigers’ hyper-aggressive outlays were going to create long-term payroll difficulties, and that’s very much the case right now. Detroit already projects to have a $195.7MM payroll in 2017, a $138.1MM payroll in 2018 and $111.1MM in 2019. Even as far out as 2020, the team is guaranteeing a fairly stunning $83.1MM to just three players (or $105.1MM to four players if Verlander’s 2020 option vests).

Though a change in approach finally seems to be at hand, the Tigers don’t need to wave the white flag. While the extent to which they continue to shed payroll (i.e. trade productive veterans) will of course be a significant factor in determining next year’s postseason hopes, there’s enough talent on the roster to withstand some financial housekeeping and still find success.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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2016-17 Offseason Outlook Detroit Tigers MLBTR Originals

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Offseason Outlook: Boston Red Sox

By Mark Polishuk | November 3, 2016 at 3:58pm CDT

MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams.  Click here for the other entries in this series.

The Red Sox jumped from the AL East basement in 2015 to first place in 2016, and they own one of the game’s most enviable collections of young talent.  Despite all this progress, however, the season ended on the sour note of an ALDS sweep at the hands of the Indians.  The Sox have to address some pitching questions, as well as try to replace the irreplaceable in franchise icon David Ortiz.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • David Price, SP: $187MM through 2022 (can opt out after 2018)
  • Dustin Pedroia, 2B: $71MM through 2021
  • Rick Porcello, SP: $62MM through 2019
  • Pablo Sandoval, 3B: $53MM through 2019 ($17MM club option for 2020, $5MM buyout)
  • Rusney Castillo, OF: $46MM through 2020
  • Hanley Ramirez, 1B: $44MM through 2018 ($22MM vesting option for 2019)
  • Clay Buchholz, SP/RP: $13.5MM through 2017
  • Craig Kimbrel, RP: $13MM through 2017 ($13MM club option for 2018, $1MM buyout)
  • Allen Craig, 1B/OF: $11MM through 2017 ($13MM club option for 2018, $1MM buyout)
  • Chris Young, OF: $6.5MM through 2017

Arbitration Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections via MLB Trade Rumors)

  • Fernando Abad (5.073) – $2.0MM
  • Robbie Ross Jr. (4.100) – $1.8MM
  • Joe Kelly (4.029) – $2.6MM
  • Drew Pomeranz (4.013) – $4.7MM
  • Brock Holt (3.052) – $1.7MM
  • Xander Bogaerts (3.042) – $5.7MM
  • Bryan Holaday (3.025) – $900K
  • Brandon Workman (3.018) – $600K
  • Jackie Bradley Jr. (2.150) – $3.3MM
  • Sandy Leon (2.149) – $1.3MM
  • Non-tender candidates: Abad, Holaday, Workman

Free Agents

  • Koji Uehara, Brad Ziegler, Junichi Tazawa, Aaron Hill

Boston Red Sox Depth Chart; Boston Red Sox Payroll Overview

Front office retooling has been the early story of Boston’s offseason.  General manager Mike Hazen left the club to become the Diamondbacks’ new GM and executive vice-president, while Sox VP of amateur/international scouting Amiel Sawdaye also departed for Arizona to serve as Hazen’s assistant GM.  Hazen isn’t being directly replaced, as assistant GMs Brian O’Halloran and (newly-promoted) Eddie Romero will essentially fill his role as the top lieutenants to president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski.

Hazen and Sawdaye are very notable losses for the Sox, as the two executives played big roles in the team’s recent successes in scouting and player development.  Ultimately, Dombrowski is still the one calling the shots in Boston, and the coming winter will indicate whether he feels the need to significantly alter or merely fine-tune what is already a strong roster.

The biggest absence, of course, is Ortiz, who will head into retirement after an incredible farewell season.  At age 40 and playing despite severe lower-leg and foot injuries, Ortiz delivered one of his best seasons, hitting .315/.401/.620 with 38 homers and a league-best 48 doubles.  Filling Ortiz’s role as a clubhouse and franchise leader was already an impossible task, yet replacing his production on the field will be almost as tall an order.

Early speculation has linked the Red Sox to free agent Edwin Encarnacion, one of the few bats on the open market capable of matching Ortiz’s slugging numbers.  (Ortiz himself, somewhat controversially, has also suggested that the fellow Dominican is a good fit to replace him in Boston.)  Encarnacion is also capable of playing first base, so he and Hanley Ramirez could share first and DH between them, locking down both positions with big power bats.

If the Sox aren’t willing to make such a big investment in years or dollars, then they could look beyond Encarnacion to the likes of Jose Bautista, Mark Trumbo, Kendrys Morales, Brandon Moss, Mike Napoli, Carlos Beltran or Matt Holliday.  The latter two names on that list may not command more than a one-year deal, which Boston may prefer for flexibility’s sake given how the team is overflowing with position player options.  Beltran and Morales are switch-hitters while Moss hits from the left side, in case Boston wants to prioritize replacing Ortiz with another left-handed bat.

The Red Sox have Ramirez playing every day at either first or DH and are further set in right field (Mookie Betts), center field (Jackie Bradley Jr.), second base (Dustin Pedroia) and shortstop (Xander Bogaerts).  Rookie Andrew Benintendi has the inside track on the regular left field job after his impressive debut season.  Veteran outfielder Chris Young is on hand to potentially platoon with Benintendi or at least spell him against some tough southpaws, though the Sox are hopeful that Benintendi can become yet another homegrown lineup staple.

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Beyond these established positions, there’s quite a bit of uncertainty at third base and the other first base/DH spot, and those two problem areas could end up being tied together.  WEEI.com’s Rob Bradford speculated that, if the Red Sox don’t acquire a first base/DH type at all, they could juggle Travis Shaw, Pablo Sandoval and Yoan Moncada between third, first and DH, with notable prospect Sam Travis also in the mix at first.  Super-utilityman Brock Holt (who actually started Boston’s three postseason games at third) would presumably also be in the mix in this scenario.

The issue with this plan, of course, is that all of these players carry significant question marks.  Shaw’s production faded considerably after a hot start, though he still provided good defense at the hot corner.  Moncada, perhaps the game’s top prospect, struck out 12 times in 20 MLB plate appearances (admittedly a small sample size) and might not be quite ready for a significant role in the bigs.  The highly-touted Travis missed much of 2016 after tearing his ACL.  Sandoval is a total wild card, struggling badly in 2015 and missing almost all of 2016 due to shoulder surgery, though the club is reportedly happy with his recovery and improved conditioning.  Given that the Red Sox chose Shaw over Sandoval in Spring Training last year, the Panda’s big contract won’t give him any advantage in the fight for playing time.

The simplest answer, then, could be to limit all these questions to third base and sign a player like Encarnacion to solidify the other first base/DH role.  Looking at the problem from the other end, could the Red Sox sign a third baseman?  This would be the less likely answer, as signing the likes of Justin Turner would block Moncada (whose athleticism would be wasted in a first base/DH role) or longer-term prospects like Rafael Devers.  Luis Valbuena would be an intriguing addition, as he wouldn’t require more than a two- or three-year deal.  He provides additional left-handed balance to Boston’s lineup, can play both third and first base, and Valbuena’s power seems like a nice fit for Fenway Park.

Catcher is another unsettled position for the Sox, though Sandy Leon’s out-of-nowhere production gave them an unexpected boost last year.  Leon posted a whopping 1.074 OPS over his first 167 PA, but he came back to earth quite sharply over his last 116 PA (a .515 OPS).  The Red Sox would be satisfied if Leon can hit halfway between those two extremes in 2017, though given his .392 BABIP last year, there’s more evidence indicating that Leon was simply on an extreme hot streak last summer than there is proof that he has really turned a corner at the plate.

Boston will go into the offseason with Leon as the starter and Christian Vazquez slated for the backup role, as the defensively-gifted Vazquez is still trying to find any sort of competency at the plate.  The Red Sox have already declined their $3.75MM club option on Ryan Hanigan, buying the veteran backstop out for $800K.  The team could try to re-sign Hanigan as minor league depth, though he may still be able to find a clearer path to big league playing time with another team, Hanigan’s injury-plagued season notwithstanding.

If the Sox wanted to make a big move behind the plate, they could explore signing Wilson Ramos, who will be out of action until roughly midseason due to right knee surgery.  This injury hasn’t stopped Ramos’ agent from seeking four- or five-year contracts this winter, and the Sox are wealthy enough to perhaps risk of giving such a commitment to a player with a checkered health history.  It’s hard to tell how Ramos’ market will develop in the wake of his ACL tear, though one would expect Boston to at least check in on what it would take to sign the catcher.

Former top prospect Blake Swihart was shifted to left field from behind the plate due to questions about his defense, though his development at the new position was cut short thanks to an ankle injury that eventually required surgery.  Swihart appeared in just 48 total games between the majors and Triple-A in 2016, and he’s probably ticketed for more minor league seasoning to get him acclimated to left.

If Swihart doesn’t win a reserve job, then the Red Sox bench shapes up as Vazquez, Young and Holt, with rookie Marco Hernandez an interesting candidate due to his ability to play second, third and short.  Boston could seek out a right-handed hitting utility infielder given that Hernandez, Holt, Shaw and Sandoval all hit from the left side, though the switch-hitting Moncada could be an internal answer.  One would think, however, that the Sox wouldn’t have Moncada on the 25-man roster unless they could give him more playing time than a part-time role.

With so much position player depth at both the major league and minor league levels, it wouldn’t be surprising to see the Sox offer some of this depth in trade talks to acquire pitching, which looks like Boston’s most pressing need.  Dombrowski has historically not been shy about dealing prospects for established MLB talent, and in his year-plus in charge of the Red Sox, Dombrowski has already shipped such highly-regarded prospects as Manuel Margot, Javier Guerra and Anderson Espinoza out of town in separate trades with the Padres for Craig Kimbrel and Drew Pomeranz (though it’s probably safe to assume that the Sox aren’t likely to be doing much more business with San Diego in the near future.)

Offering Moncada or Benintendi would open the door for the Red Sox in trade talks about virtually any semi-available starter in the game.  Especially in the wake of the Pomeranz controversy, however, Dombrowski isn’t dealing one of his blue chip prospects unless he got a true ace back in return.  If Benintendi is ready for the bigs and Moncada is close, however, Boston could be more open to dealing from its 25-man roster.

I’d imagine the Sox would be interested in dealing Sandoval if they could, even if it means taking on another bad contract or eating some money in the process.  Swihart seems like a bit of an odd man out if he’s not going to catch and he’s blocked by Benintendi in left field, and Swihart would generate some solid interest as a post-hype prospect.  Travis would also get interest, though the Red Sox would be selling low on an intriguing hitter prospect in the wake of Travis’ abbreviated 2016.  Shaw is probably only a candidate to be moved if the Sox made another trade or acquisition to address third base, unless they were sold on Sandoval making a comeback or Moncada’s ability to handle MLB pitching.

None of the bench guys would net the Red Sox the frontline rotation help they’d be looking for, so could they instead move one of their lineup cornerstones? They had talks with the White Sox over the summer about Chris Sale and Jose Quintana, with Boston unwilling to give up Bradley to land either pitcher.  Bradley is an immensely valuable asset — a 26-year-old elite center field glove with an emerging bat who is just entering his arbitration years.  That said, Bradley has struggled to hit left-handed pitching and his hitting as a whole declined over the last two months of the season.  If the Sox have any reservations about Bradley’s development as a hitter or are simply willing to bite the bullet to land an elite arm, he could be dealt, leaving Betts or Benintendi taking over in center field and left field becoming the province of a Young/Holt/Swihart platoon mix (or, the Sox could turn around to try to sign another outfielder).

A player like Bradley is a high price to pay, though that could be the going rate for pitching trades this winter given how the free agent starting market is incredibly thin.  The Sox might not be too active in the open market when it comes to pitching upgrades aside from checking in on a reunion with Rich Hill.  The veteran lefty revived his career in the Boston system in 2015 and went on to post tremendous numbers (when healthy) with the A’s and Dodgers this year.  Given the issues at the back of Boston’s rotation, letting Hill depart last winter looks like a missed opportunity.

Rick Porcello and David Price have the top two rotation spots locked up, with Porcello delivering a career-best performance in 2016 while Price somewhat struggled by his lofty standards in his first year in a Red Sox uniform.  Steven Wright, Eduardo Rodriguez, Clay Buchholz and Pomeranz are all in the mix for the other three rotation jobs, though all are dealing with either injury and/or consistency concerns heading into the winter.

Signing someone like Hill or adding another top-tier arm in a trade would go a long way towards solidifying the pitching staff.  If a new pitcher is added and Wright, Rodriguez, Pomeranz and Buchholz end up all being healthy and productive, then that’s certainly a “problem” the Red Sox would love to face.  In the (perhaps unlikely) event that the Sox face a pitching surplus, those starters could be traded or used in the bullpen.  Buchholz drew interest when his name was floated at the deadline, or even the promising Rodriguez could be shopped to land a more proven major league talent.

The Red Sox got a pretty solid overall performance from their bullpen last year, though some changes are in the offing.  Kimbrel’s first season in Boston saw him post career highs in ERA (3.40) and walk rate (5.09), though while he wasn’t the utterly dominant closer he was with the Braves, Kimbrel was still very effective.  Robbie Ross, Joe Kelly, Matt Barnes and Heath Hembree will all return, and 2015-16 offseason addition Carson Smith should be back at some point later in the season after undergoing Tommy John surgery last May.

Even with this depth on hand, the Red Sox will hunt for more bullpen help in the form of another left-hander to pair with Ross (Fernando Abad was very ineffective after coming to Boston) and a setup man to set the table for Kimbrel.  Free agents Koji Uehara and Brad Ziegler will both get consideration for that eighth-inning role, as the two veterans were quite effective last year.  Uehara still posted strong peripherals despite a 3.45 ERA inflated by a spike in homers allowed, and he’ll likely be available on a one-year deal as he enters his age-42 season, while the Red Sox will need a multi-year commitment to retain Ziegler.

It isn’t out the question that Boston makes a surprise play for one of the top free agent closers on the market this winter in an effort to create its own version of an uber-bullpen, though I’d consider it to be a bit unlikely given the team’s other needs.  Given how good Kelly looked after officially switching to a relief role last year (an 1.02 ERA and 21 strikeouts in 17 2/3 IP out of the pen), the Sox are hopeful that they already have one burgeoning weapon already on the roster.

There’s certainly potential for the Red Sox to go big to address their lineup or rotation needs, though the team has so much talent on board that Dombrowski can be flexible with his offseason dealings.  One notable move (like, say, dealing Bradley) could trigger a chain reaction in Boston’s plans for 2017 and in the future in terms of freeing up positions for prospects, or potentially chasing established players this winter in free agency or trades.  Dombrowski could also just as easily choose to only tinker with his roster until he knows exactly what he has in certain youngsters or underachieving/injured veterans.  Some moves are certainly on the horizon for a Red Sox club that clearly feels it can contend for a World Series next year.

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2016-17 Offseason Outlook Boston Red Sox MLBTR Originals

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Offseason Outlook: Washington Nationals

By Jeff Todd | November 2, 2016 at 10:51am CDT

MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams. Click here for the other entries in this series.

The Nationals coasted to the NL East crown in 2016 but came up short in October. Washington’s still-loaded roster is primed to compete yet again, but it nevertheless promises to be an interesting winter in D.C.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Max Scherzer, SP: $180MM through 2021 (including scheduled signing bonus payments)
  • Stephen Strasburg, SP: $175MM through 2023
  • Ryan Zimmerman, 1B: $58MM through 2019 (including buyout on 2020 club option, post-career personal services contract)
  • Daniel Murphy, 2B: $29.5MM through 2018
  • Jayson Werth, OF: $21MM through 2017
  • Shawn Kelley, RP: $11MM through 2018
  • Oliver Perez, RP: $4MM through 2017

Arbitration Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections via MLB Trade Rumors)

  • Ben Revere (5.149) – $6.3MM
  • Jose Lobaton (5.138) – $1.6MM
  • Danny Espinosa (5.113) – $5.3MM
  • Bryce Harper (4.159) – $9.3MM
  • Anthony Rendon (3.130) – $6.4MM
  • Tanner Roark (3.055) – $6.1MM
  • Non-tender candidates: Revere

Options

  • Gio Gonzalez, SP: $12MM ($500K buyout)
  • Yusmeiro Petit, RP: $3MM ($500K buyout)

Free Agents

  • Aaron Barrett (elected free agency), Matt Belisle, Sean Burnett, Stephen Drew, Chris Heisey, Mat Latos, Mark Melancon, Wilson Ramos, Marc Rzepczynski

Washington Nationals Depth Chart; Washington Nationals Payroll Information

The Nationals answered what would have been one major offseason question early in the 2016 campaign, locking up righty Stephen Strasburg to a significant extension. While it came with a big price tag, the deal looked wise for most of the year — right up until Strasburg went down with what was diagnosed as a strained flexor mass. He’s expected to be ready for camp next year, but the injury raises yet more questions about the supremely talented, oft-injured starter.

Still, the Nats are in good shape in the rotation, which could feature the same five arms that opened 2016. Strasburg and Max Scherzer form a potent one-two punch, and Tanner Roark has established himself as another quality starter. Though his 2.83 ERA was not supported by ERA estimators, he has carved out a unique niche as a contact-manager with his five-pitch mix. Gio Gonzalez has been something of the opposite — a strikeout pitcher who generally underperforms his peripherals — though he’s still a good bet to provide innings. There’s enough upside in Gonzalez’s left arm to make his option an easy pick-up, particularly given his clean health history. And then there’s Joe Ross, who was putting up outstanding numbers for a fifth starter before going down with shoulder issues. If he can return to health, he’s another sure bet to take a spot on the staff.

That’s not to say there isn’t any potential for change. Washington GM Mike Rizzo will surely have his eye on quality outside options after the team again washed out in the NLDS following a third division title in five years. And the organization’s younger right-handed starting talent not only could pressure the five arms noted above, but might also represent intriguing trade fodder. Top prospect Lucas Giolito showed poorly in his limited time in the majors but remains a highly valuable asset. Some are just as impressed by fellow young fireballer Reynaldo Lopez, who was trusted with a postseason roster spot. A.J. Cole remains a factor after making eight MLB starts in which he showed some swing-and-miss potential but didn’t generate stellar results. And Erick Fedde reached Double-A, making him a plausible second-half contributor with top-100 prospect billing. There’s another near-MLB arm in the system who’s probably ready for the majors: Austin Voth, who finished with a 3.15 ERA over 157 Triple-A frames last year.

With open-market starting pitching nearly non-existent, and controllable starters as valuable as ever, the Nationals could take any number of different directions to utilize that mass of talent. Gonzalez, for instance, could be shipped out for a solid, not-so-cheap veteran at another position of need. (The Yankees are one team that would surely have interest and, as noted below, could have players who’d match.) Or one or more of the upper-level pitchers might be moved to add a quality regular position player. Rizzo has engineered a wide variety of quality trades over the years and will surely put his creativity and scouting instincts to the test again this winter.

Despite the impressive array of starting options,  the team again finds itself with at least one notable pitching role in flux. The front office will need to address the ninth inning, hopefully providing manager Dusty Baker with a sure hand to lock up late-game leads, with mid-season acquisition Mark Melancon heading to the open market. He’s certainly a plausible target, as are top free agent relievers Aroldis Chapman and Kenley Jansen, though it’s far from certain that Washington will spend big to address the opening. Lower-priced free agents such as Koji Uehara, Greg Holland, Santiago Casilla, Sergio Romo, Joaquin Benoit, or Brad Ziegler could be brought in, though perhaps the Nationals will be more inclined to trust those veterans with set-up roles. The trade market holds some promise, too, with pen pieces such as Wade Davis, Francisco Rodriguez, David Robertson, and Sean Doolittle conceivably of interest.

Otherwise, Shawn Kelley and Blake Treinen look to be the two top set-up men from the right side, with Sammy Solis providing a power left-handed option if he can stay healthy. Youngster Koda Glover will compete for a job out of camp, and the team surely still has hopes for the live-armed Trevor Gott despite a generally disappointing 2016. Oliver Perez provides another southpaw, though it’s possible the team could still look to add another after parting with Felipe Rivero in the Melancon deal. It’s also possible that the Nats could filter some of their young rotation options into the bullpen. With Yusmeiro Petit fading badly in the second half, his option no longer seems likely to be exercised, perhaps opening a spot for Cole in a swingman capacity. And while the Nats would surely prefer to see Lopez succeed in the rotation, he could provide another power setup arm in a relief capacity. There’s probably not a need, strictly speaking, to add greater depth, but it wouldn’t at all be surprising to see Washington go after some of the veterans listed above, pursue a reunion with Matt Belisle, and/or bring in a few veterans on minor-league deals for a camp tryout.

On the position-player side, there are two everyday openings that could be filled with outside additions. The first is pretty straightforward: after suffering a late-season ACL tear that ended an excellent campaign, Wilson Ramos is heading to free agency. It’s not clear whether the team is giving serious consideration to making him a qualifying offer, but that’s a risky proposition. Taking a $17.2MM payday for what might be a half-season of play would be awfully enticing for the 29-year-old, even if he’s still holding out hope for a much lengthier contract.

Regardless, there’s a need here. The switch-hitting Jose Lobaton is useful but limited to a backup role. Athletic youngster Pedro Severino showed very well in his limited MLB action and can handle things defensively, but he has never hit much in the minors. For a team with obvious World Series aspirations, an addition has to be a strong consideration. Outside of Ramos, the open market’s best options are Matt Wieters and Jason Castro. They’ll surely be considered, but the many less-heralded free agent receivers probably won’t hold a ton of appeal given the presence of Lobaton and Severino. The trade market doesn’t seem terribly promising, but Brian McCann could make for an interesting fit, and Derek Norris might conceivably be a candidate to bounce back with his original professional organization. Otherwise, the options are slim: Welington Castillo could be had, perhaps, but the D-Backs may not be willing to part with him absent an overpay. And Miguel Montero — with whom Rizzo is familiar from their time in Arizona — could be shopped by the Cubs, though he’s expensive and didn’t impress at the plate in his age-32 season. With catching in high demand leaguewide, Rizzo will be put to the test in addressing this area.

The second major need features more options, but also less clarity of direction. Trea Turner emerged as a force upon his call-up in 2016, making him a definitive everyday option for the team. But it’s not clear where he’ll play: center field, which he learned on the fly, or his native shortstop. The Nats have internal alternatives at both positions, though the bet here is that the club looks to upgrade in one area while using Turner in the other. We’ll take each in turn.

Sep 9, 2016; Washington, DC, USA; Washington Nationals second baseman Trea Turner (7) stands in the batters box during the eighth inning against the Philadelphia Phillies at Nationals Park. Washington Nationals defeated Philadelphia Phillies 5-4. Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports

In the outfield, Bryce Harper will try to resume his presumed march to greatness while veteran Jayson Werth will play out the final year in D.C. There are plenty of options to play between them. Washington could platoon toolsy but strikeout-prone Michael Taylor with either of two lefties — Ben Revere and post-hype prospect Brian Goodwin, but that would mean multiple rolls of the dice. Odds are the team will non-tender Revere, who won’t come cheap and was dreadful in 2016. And Taylor and Goodwin seem more likely to compete for a reserve role — presumably, spelling Werth with some frequency — or continue to try to refine their talent at Triple-A.

Looking elsewhere, though Turner’s presence atop the order reduces the need for a true table-setter, switch-hitter Dexter Fowler’s high-OBP bat would certainly slot in nicely. Other free agent possibilities include former Nats shortstop-turned Rangers center fielder Ian Desmond and Carlos Gomez. The trade market, too, has some intriguing possibilities. Rizzo has pursued younger veterans with two or three years of control before — e.g., Denard Span, Doug Fister — and that type of asset could line up nicely with the promotional timeline of skyrocketing center field prospect Victor Robles (who’d also be a heck of a trade chip). Charlie Blackmon of the Rockies fits that bill with two seasons of arb control remaining and is perhaps the best reasonably achievable trade target. The Nats reputedly had interest in him this summer. A.J. Pollock would be another two-year piece, though it’s not clear that Arizona will sell low after his injury-plagued campaign. With the Marlins reportedly considering dangling their three years of control over Marcell Ozuna in a bid to add pitching, there’s a possible match on paper. Indeed, the Nats reportedly pitched a deal to the Fish last year involving Gonzalez (though they were apparently trying to get Christian Yelich). Such an intra-division swap still feels like a bit of a stretch, and it’s perhaps even harder to see something coming together with the Braves for Ender Inciarte, who is another piece of the potential center field trade puzzle this winter. A readier match could be found with the pitching-needy Yankees, who might be interested in a swap involving Gonzalez and Brett Gardner (who has two guaranteed seasons plus an option remaining). If — big if — the Royals decided to market Lorenzo Cain, he’d presumably also be of interest.

There’s one other possible route to consider in the outfield. The Nationals put significant money on the table last winter for Yoenis Cespedes, who ultimately chose an opportunity to opt out after a year with the Mets over Washington’s heavily-deferred, five-year offer. Cespedes would give the team another premium bat, though either he or (perhaps more likely) Harper would need to spend part of the year in center to make that happen. It’s a bit of a strained fit, but it makes more sense when one considers that the Nats will be looking to replace Werth this time next fall. With Taylor and Goodwin available, the team could field Harper and Cespedes in the corners when Werth sits.

The other general strategy would be to keep Turner in center for at least another year or two, which would open the question of what to do at short. Taking that approach wouldn’t necessarily mandate a major acquisition, either, as Danny Espinosa has a final year of arbitration control after playing every day at short in 2016. But while the switch hitter provided 24 long balls, quality glovework, and excellent baserunning, his lack of contact (and resulting .209/.306/.378 batting line) make him a less-than-ideal choice. The Nationals would surely prefer to utilize him as a utility infielder.

Thing is, there’s a lot less out there at the shortstop position than there is in center. While the Nats could bring back Stephen Drew, pair Espinosa with young infielder Wilmer Difo, or sign another platoon partner, the free agent market doesn’t include any regulars. (Well, unless you really want to make things interesting and consider Desmond there.) Barring an exceedingly crafty trade for a high-quality young shortstop, there’s also not much of interest in the trade market. The clear target for teams hoping to improve at the position is Zack Cozart of the Reds, who has one more year of reasonably-priced control. Though he faded at the plate and ended the year with an injury, Cozart is a supremely talented gloveman with pop. It isn’t inconceivable that the Nats would look at the Cardinals’ Jhonny Peralta, too, though he’s 34 and struggled through an injury-ravaged 2016 season.

Regardless of how those issues are worked out, the Nats figure to rely upon familiar faces elsewhere in the infielder. Daniel Murphy and Anthony Rendon are stellar options at second and third. There are plenty of questions about longtime franchise face Ryan Zimmerman, but he’s set to remain the regular at first base. If his batting line doesn’t improve — and the team hopes it will, after a year in which good contact didn’t fall very frequently — and/or he is again limited by injury, then it will be useful to have alternatives.

That brings us to the bench mix, which will likely see some change as the team watches productive reserves like Drew and Chris Heisey return to the open market. Espinosa and/or Difo are likely candidates, as are the younger outfielders noted above. But the Nats may have some room to add impact with a market that’s chock full of platoon sluggers. The team has traditionally carried a power left-handed bat, a role filled most recently by Clint Robinson. He could be retained, but struggled mightily last year and isn’t really capable of playing the corner outfield. Particularly if the Nats don’t make a big move in center field, the team could make a play for free agent Brandon Moss, who might take 400 or more plate appearances while functioning as a complement to and insurance for Werth in left and Zimmerman at first. That sort of addition wouldn’t be particularly cheap and isn’t strictly necessary, of course: Murphy could also shift over if a need arises at first base, with Espinosa and Difo on hand for middle-infield protection.

In the final analysis, the Nationals have most of the pieces in place to believe they’re positioned for a repeat run at the NL East crown. It’s easy to imagine a relatively straightforward winter mostly spent shoring things up in a few areas. But holding off the Mets, and finally advancing in the postseason, may require more. The payroll already projects to include $139MM in commitments as things stand, but this is a team that opened the 2015 season with a payroll north of $160MM. If it’s willing to do so again, there’s still some room to add impact pieces. With intriguing roster flexibility provided by a deep reserve of pitching and the presence of Turner, Rizzo and co. may yet have some surprises up their sleeves.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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2016-17 Offseason Outlook MLBTR Originals Washington Nationals

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Offseason Outlook: San Diego Padres

By Jason Martinez | October 31, 2016 at 6:04pm CDT

MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams. Click here for the other entries in this series.

Since four consecutive winning seasons to begin the Petco Park era, including a pair of division championships, the Padres have had a losing record in eight of the last nine years—they won 90 games in 2010, but fell short of the playoffs after a late-season collapse—while playing very few meaningful games in a beautiful ballpark. Are there any reasons to believe that good times are ahead for this organization?

Guaranteed Contracts

  • None

Arbitration Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections via MLB Trade Rumors)

  • Tyson Ross, SP (5.126) – $9.6MM
  • Alexi Amarista, IF/OF (5.040) – $1.6MM
  • Derek Norris, C (4.102) – $4.0MM
  • Hector Sanchez, C (4.018) – $900K
  • Carter Capps, RP (4.007) – $1.0MM
  • Brett Wallace, 1B (4.003) -$1.3MM
  • Wil Myers, 1B (3.104) – $4.7MM
  • Brad Hand, RP (3.092) – $1.4MM
  • Brandon Maurer, RP (3.089) – $1.7MM
  • Christian Friedrich, RP (3.046) – $2.0MM
  • Oswaldo Arcia, OF (3.020) – $1.4MM
  • Yangervis Solarte, 3B (3.000) – $2.7MM
  • Non-tender candidates: Amarista, Arcia, Sanchez, Wallace

Other Financial Commitments

  • James Shields, SP: Owed $22MM through 2018 (traded in 2016)
  • Matt Kemp, OF: Owed est. $7.5MM through 2019 (traded in 2016)
  • Melvin Upton Jr., OF: Owed $11.45MM in 2017 (traded in 2016)
  • Jedd Gyorko, 2B: Owed $7.5MM through 2019 (traded during 2015-16 offseason)
  • Hector Olivera, OF: Owed $28.5MM through 2020 (released in 2016)

Free Agents

  • Edwin Jackson, Jon Jay, Brandon Morrow, Clayton Richard, Adam Rosales, Carlos Villanueva

San Diego Padres Depth Chart; San Diego Padres Payroll Information

General manager A.J. Preller has spent the past year digging his team out of the hole that resulted from the Padres’ premature “win-now” approach during his first offseason on the job, while also overseeing the rebuild of a team that has had very little success drafting, signing or acquiring young talent over the past couple of decades. He was also suspended 30 days by Major League Baseball for failure to disclose player medical information in trade discussions.

The results of Preller’s rebuild, thus far, are promising. While the Padres are still paying a lot of money to several players who are no longer with the team, they have also shed the payroll of any long-term commitments and opened roster spots for younger players. Carlos Asuaje and Manuel Margot, both acquired from the Red Sox in last offseason’s Craig Kimbrel trade, should make an impact at the Major League level in 2017. The same goes for a handful of players who were picked up off the scrap heap and given an audition in 2016, including Ryan Buchter, Christian Friedrich, Brad Hand, Luis Sardinas and Ryan Schimpf.

As for how the medical information scandal affects the team during the upcoming offseason, we can only speculate. It might have very little impact, if any at all. The trades that Preller absolutely had to make, for purposes of the rebuild, have already been made. He no longer has to sell a fellow general manager on why they should take on a high-priced player no longer in the prime of his career while giving up something of value in return. In addition, the urgency to finalize a trade is much lower in the offseason than during the season, particularly one close to the trade deadline. Medical records can be reviewed more thoroughly, and teams can utilize their own medical staff to assess the players involved.

One player that Preller could have a hard time moving is catcher Derek Norris, who is expected to lose his starting job to defensive standout Austin Hedges, who also raked in the Triple-A Pacific Coast League this year. Norris finished with a slash line of .186/.255/.328, which is probably the biggest reason why Preller was unable to trade him during the season. Carrying Norris as the backup catcher is still a possibility with Christian Bethancourt potentially taking on a hybrid catcher/outfielder/relief pitcher role. However, a backup catcher making $4MM per season isn’t ideal for any small-market club, even one with a payroll as open as the Padres, and there is probably enough of a market for Preller to find a match in trade talks.

Moving Norris could prove to be a challenge, but Preller should field plenty of calls from general managers interested in the team’s plethora of talented position players with multiple years of club control. Between Asuaje (2B/3B), Alex Dickerson (LF/1B), Travis Jankowski (CF/LF), Margot (CF), Wil Myers (1B/LF/RF), Hunter Renfroe (RF/LF), Schimpf (2B/3B), Yangervis Solarte (3B/2B/1B) and Cory Spangenberg (2B/3B), the Padres have nine players to fill six starting jobs (1B, 2B, 3B, CF, LF, RF).

Manager Andy Green has stated that only Myers, an NL All-Star and Gold Glove finalist in his first full season as a first baseman, and Solarte (.808 OPS in 109 games) are guaranteed lineup spots next season. While they currently form the core of the Padres’ lineup, both players would likely be in high demand if the Padres were to shop them. With three years of club control remaining for each player, the price tag would be high. On a team that appears to be at least another year or two away from contending, it wouldn’t be a surprise if any players who aren’t guaranteed to be around past 2019 are dealt.

Re-signing free agent Jon Jay, who the team has expressed interest in bringing back, would further increase the chances that one of the outfielders, most likely Dickerson or Jankowski, will be traded. However, a solid season by the 31-year-old, despite missing more than two months with a fractured forearm, should ensure that he’ll find an opportunity on a team who can give him a better shot at regular playing time.

If there is to be a new face in the Padres’ lineup in 2017, it could be at shortstop. At the least, the 23-year-old Sardinas has put himself into the mix with a strong showing—.287/.353/.417 in 120 plate appearances—after he was acquired from the Mariners last August for cash considerations. While his struggles in the big leagues during previous stints with the Rangers, Brewers and Mariners led to his stock dropping significantly since he was a highly-touted prospect a few years ago, the Padres’ sense of urgency to find a short-term and long-term answer at the position has likely decreased.

Signing Erick Aybar to a one-year deal or trading for Zack Cozart or Danny Espinosa—both are under contract for one more season—would be decent stop-gap options if the Padres aren’t sold on Sardinas. It’s also possible that the A’s would entertain offers for Marcus Semien, who hit 27 homers in 2016 and isn’t eligible for free agency until after the 2020 season, with top prospect Franklin Barreto closing in on the majors. Rangers’ infielder Jurickson Profar, with whom Preller is very familiar from his Rangers days, could be another trade target who would fill the position for 2017 and beyond. The asking price on either of those players figures to be sizable, though. Bringing back free agent utilityman Adam Rosales, who enjoyed a breakout season (.814 OPS, 13 HR in 248 plate appearances) at age 33, would give the team additional coverage at shortstop, as well as a platoon option versus left-handed pitching.

While the Padres’ offense appears to be headed in the right direction, the starting rotation is full of question marks. Staff ace Tyson Ross recently underwent thoracic outlet syndrome surgery after making only one start in 2016 due to shoulder pain. The Padres are hoping he’ll be ready to go by the start of Spring Training. Even if he can return to health, there are no certainties to fill any of the remaining spots. A healthy Ross, who is eligible for free agency after the 2017 season, would likely become one of the top trade targets for contending teams if the Padres were to fall out of playoff contention.

Luis Perdomo, a Rule 5 pick who went from bullpen mop-up duty to the team’s best starter in the second half, should be penciled into a rotation spot. While opposing hitters had trouble against the heavy sinker that he relied on almost exclusively, he’ll likely need to utilize his secondary pitches a bit more often in year two. Christian Friedrich and Paul Clemens each showed, on occasion, why they were once considered very good prospects. They also showed why, in their late 20s, they’ve failed to establish themselves as effective big league pitchers. Still, both likely did enough to remain on the 40-man roster throughout the offseason and will get a chance to compete for spots next spring.

Jarred Cosart and Colin Rea, if he can avoid Tommy John surgery, will also compete for rotation spots, as will Cesar Vargas, who was very good in five of his seven early-season starts before being shut down with a strained flexor tendon. Michael Kelly, Dinelson Lamet and Walter Lockett, three prospects who began the season in the low minors and rose to Triple-A by season’s end, should also be in the mix.

The bullpen is in much better shape than the rotation, thanks to Brandon Maurer, who settled into the closer’s role nicely after Fernando Rodney was traded (3.09 ERA, .572 opponent’s OPS, 13 saves in last 32 appearances) and talented lefties Buchter (2.86 ERA, 11.1 K/9, 20 holds) and Hand (2.92 ERA, 11.2 K/9, 21 holds). There’s a chance that Hand could move to the rotation—2016 was his first season working exclusively as a reliever—but Maurer’s failed attempt last spring, followed by a very shaky early-season performance once he returned to the bullpen, could have an affect on that decision.

A return to health from Carter Capps, who was acquired from the Marlins in the Andrew Cashner trade, could boost this group to an elite level. Prior to an elbow injury late in the 2015 season that eventually required Tommy John surgery last March, the 26-year-old right-hander had begun to establish himself as one of the most dominant relief pitchers in the game (1.16 ERA, 2.0 BB/9, 16.8 K/9 in 30 appearances). He’s expected to return early in the 2017 season, if not by Opening Day, and could push Maurer for the closer’s job at some point.

Phil Maton, a 20th-round draftee in 2015, is rising quickly through the system and could find himself in the Padres’ bullpen sometime in 2017. In 38 appearances between Low-A, High-A and Triple-A, the right-hander posted a 1.74 ERA with 1.9 BB/9 and 13.6 K/9. He’s also been quite effective in the Arizona Fall League, allowing only one run on four hits with no walks and eight strikeouts over seven innings.

As is the case with many teams, starting pitching will be the Padres’ top priority this offseason. It’s a safe bet, however, that they won’t be in the bidding for top free agent starters Rich Hill, Jeremy Hellickson or Ivan Nova. Instead, they’ll probably look to add at least two starting pitchers from a long list of free agents with diminished value or via the trade market, utilizing their position player depth as trade chips.

It wouldn’t be a surprise if one of Edwin Jackson or Clayton Richard returned. At times, Jackson looked like the pitcher that the Cubs signed for $52MM before the 2013 season. Other times, he resembled the pitcher they released with a year-and-a-half remaining on the deal. Richard, one of the team’s most reliable starting pitchers several years ago before injuries derailed his career, was particularly impressive with a 2.41 ERA in nine starts after the Padres picked him up late in the season. While Petco Park is not nearly as pitcher-friendly as it was during his first stint with the team, the 33-year-old lefty appears very comfortable there.

San Diego has always been a preferred choice for pitchers looking to rebuild value, although the weather and the opportunity to pitch at the top of the rotation are the Padres’ strongest selling points these days. The return of 2007 Cy Young award winner Jake Peavy would make sense, as would the signing of Jorge De La Rosa, an NL West veteran with a career 3.22 ERA at Petco Park. Both are former staff aces and, despite disappointing seasons, finished the year in good health and could be anxious to prove that they still have something left in the tank in their mid-30s.

The Padres could take a step forward in 2017 with Margot, Myers and Renfroe leading the offense and Capps, Maurer and Buchter closing the door on opponents late in the game. How much of a step forward will depend on their yet-to-be-determined starting rotation.

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2016-17 Offseason Outlook MLBTR Originals San Diego Padres

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Offseason Outlook: Miami Marlins

By Jeff Todd | October 31, 2016 at 8:39am CDT

MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams. Click here for the other entries in this series.

It feels wrong — not only in a moral and emotional sense, but also in pure baseball terms — to suggest that the Marlins can or should try to replace dearly departed ace Jose Fernandez. His sobering loss leaves gaping voids in the game writ large; in the Marlins organization, generally; and in the team’s pitching staff — none of which can be filled.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Giancarlo Stanton, OF: $285.5MM through 2027 (including $10MM buyout on 2028 club option; may opt out after 2020, with $218MM left on contract)
  • Wei-Yin Chen, SP: $61MM through 2020 (may opt out after 2017, with $52MM left on contract; 2021 conditional player option)
  • Christian Yelich, OF: $48MM through 2021 (including $1.25MM buyout on 2022 club option)
  • Dee Gordon, 2B: $45.5MM through 2020 (including $1MM buyout on 2021 club option)
  • Martin Prado, 3B: $40MM through 2019
  • Ichiro Suzuki, OF: $2MM through 2017 (includes club option for 2018)

Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections via MLB Trade Rumors)

  • David Phelps, SP/RP (4.156) – $5.2MM
  • Adeiny Hechavarria, SS (4.060) – $3.7MM
  • A.J. Ramos, RP (4.030) – $6.8MM
  • Tom Koehler, SP (4.016) – $6.2MM
  • Marcell Ozuna, OF (3.124) – $4.5MM
  • Derek Dietrich, IF (2.151) – $1.8MM

Options

  • Fernando Rodney, RP: $4.1MM club option ($400K buyout)

Free Agents

  • Andrew Cashner, Mike Dunn, Jeff Francoeur, Chris Johnson, Jeff Mathis, Dustin McGowan

[Marlins Depth Chart; Marlins Payroll Information]

Fernandez was the beating heart of the Miami franchise, its best and most passionate player. We may never truly be able to take full stock of the effects of his death — not just on the organization, but also on the Miami and broader baseball communities — but the heartrending reaction of the organization in its aftermath suggests that they will be profound.

Sep 26, 2016; Miami, FL, USA; Hats of the Miami Marlins lay on the pitchers mound after the game to honor teammate starting pitcher Jose Fernandez at Marlins Park. Mandatory Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports

From a roster perspective, the loss of Fernandez is mercilessly easy to assess: the Marlins had one of the most valuable pitchers in baseball. Now, they don’t. Teams wait for decades to unearth a single player of his talents in the draft. Without Fernandez racking up strikeouts at a prodigious rate, while earning a bargain salary during his arbitration years, the Marlins look like a decidedly less promising team.

The team already had plenty of limitations, and plenty of needs, when looking ahead to 2017. Coming into 2016, the Fish carried an Opening Day payroll of just over $74MM — second only in franchise history to the ill-fated, $100MM+ 2012 roster. Once guaranteed salaries and the approximate arb obligations are tallied, Miami already has about $70MM committed for the season to come. While some payroll increases are anticipated, it would require a rather significant step northward to accomodate the addition of multiple quality veterans.

Trades are always possible, of course, but Miami is short in prospect capital. The organization already parted with top first base prospect Josh Naylor, as well as bounceback-candidate MLB pitchers Jarred Cosart and Carter Capps, in the failed deal to acquire rental starter Andrew Cashner. The Marlins did recover youngster Luis Castillo after unwinding the portion of that trade involving injured starter Colin Rea, so he could again be cashed in. Fellow young starters like Jarlin Garcia, recent first-round draft pick Braxton Garrett, and the TJ-recovering Tyler Kolek, could all be flipped. But the Fish will need to be judicious in parting with young arms after shipping out pitchers like Anthony DeSclafani and Andrew Heaney in recent years. Corner infielder Brian Anderson has shown promise and is nearing major league readiness, so he’s another asset that could hold appeal.

Miami did take steps forward in the win-loss department last year, and the team does feature a talented core even without its young ace. But there are many areas in need of improvement if the club hopes to return to the postseason for the first time since a 2003 World Series run. Catching the Nationals and Mets would be no small feat.

Giancarlo Stanton, Christian Yelich, and Marcell Ozuna make up one of the very best young, controlled outfield units in baseball. Most of the infield mix is settled, too. Second baseman Dee Gordon will look to bounce back from a suspension-marred 2016, and the club will hope that double-play partner Adeiny Hechavarria can at least return to hitting at a near-average rate while continuing to provide quality glovework at short. (There has been some chatter that the team would consider dealing Hechavarria for starting pitching, but he may not have enough value and the team doesn’t really have an alternative barring a surprise move of Gordon back to short.) The Marlins kept veteran third baseman Martin Prado off the market by inking a reasonable, but hardly bargain-priced extension in September. At first, Justin Bour has continued to provide power and a strong overall batting line against right-handed pitching, though he’s in need of a platoon partner. And behind the plate, J.T. Realmuto turned in a strong campaign and looks to be one of the better young catchers in the game.

The supporting cast could use some work, but the Marlins can fill out those ranks with the kinds of cheap, veteran additions the team has pursued in recent years. The venerable Ichiro Suzuki will return in the fourth outfielder’s role. Chris Johnson didn’t perform well as the right-handed-hitting complement to Bour, so Miami will look into a market that includes options such as Steve Pearce, Dae-ho Lee, and Ryan Raburn. The light-hitting Miguel Rojas remains on hand as an affordable utility option, though perhaps the club could look to bring in a veteran such as Erick Aybar or Alexei Ramirez to push Hechavarria and step in as needed elsewhere. A move to bring back defensive specialist Jeff Mathis as the reserve receiver wouldn’t be surprising, and there are a wide variety of other veteran backup types available.

That brings us to a player who is perhaps the biggest wild card on the Marlins’ roster: left-handed-hitting infielder/outfielder Derek Dietrich. Though he fell off after a big start to the year and is much better against right-handed pitching, Dietrich’s overall offensive performance has been plenty promising. Dating back to the start of 2015, he has posted a .270/.362/.438 batting line with 17 home runs over 701 plate appearances. Better still, defensive metrics have come around on him, rating him as an approximately average defender at second, third, and (briefly) the corner outfield in 2016.

It’s possible that the Marlins will find it hard to maximize Dietrich’s value with their current roster. He can’t play short or center. Second and third are largely occupied. And Dietrich won’t be of much utility at first since he swings from the same side of the plate as Bour.

As the Marlins look to build out their depleted rotation, then, Dietrich could be a key asset. Certainly, he could be traded if there’s another organization willing to give up a useful arm to add him — though with such limitations in his game, trade partners would likely also be looking for some of the above-mentioned pitching prospects to give up a quality starter. More intriguingly, perhaps, the Marlins could explore the possibility of moving one of their young outfielders — Ozuna seems most likely, though Yelich could also be considered — to add an impact arm. In that scenario, Dietrich could pair with a righty bat in left field.

Just what does Miami need in the rotation? Three spots are clearly accounted for, with the inconsistent-but-talented Adam Conley, steady-but-unspectacular Tom Koehler, and veteran Wei-Yin Chen (who’s looking to make amends for a miserable first year with the team) all more or less locked in. Righty David Phelps certainly made his case late in the year, turning in five outstanding starts after breaking out in the pen earlier in the year. He will have a prominent job of some kind in 2017, and the club seems to have quite a lot to gain by stretching him out next spring. And there are some possibilities for a fifth arm, including Justin Nicolino (who managed just 3.8 K/9 last year), Jose Urena (a low-K pitcher who has had good results in the minors), Jake Esch, Kendry Flores (if he can return to health), and perhaps Jarlin Garcia.

You could squint at that group and see a complete staff, but the Marlins obviously aren’t content. The real question at this point is just how big they’ll look to go in adding another starter (if not two). Miami is reportedly willing to consider moving Ozuna, Gordon, Hechavarria, or Dietrich — but not Stanton, Yelich, or Realmuto — to facilitate the addition of an arm. Ozuna likely has the most appeal after a strong 2016 season, and the Marlins have indicated a willingness to move him in the past. Garrett, an exciting power lefty, is the real prize in the prospect pool and would surely draw significant interest.

Even if Miami doesn’t gun for the biggest names (Chris Sale, Jose Quintana, Chris Archer) that could be available, rival teams with quality, controllable arms — think Jake Odorizzi — will have high asking prices. If the Marlins can’t stomach the sticker shock, it’s conceivable that they could take on part of a veteran’s deal, perhaps even becoming the third team to own a part of James Shields’s contract. They could also look to take a shot at adding a bounceback arm in the mold of Jaime Garcia of the Cardinals, or aim somewhat higher for his teammate Michael Wacha.  In recent years, the Fish have shown a predilection for taking some risks in trades for young-ish, higher-upside starters (e.g., Cosart, Cashner, Mat Latos), so a reasonably bold move could be in the offing.

Free agency isn’t without its options in the rotation department. While the premium talent just isn’t there, that’s not typically where Miami goes shopping anyway. A play for the best-available arms — Rich Hill, Jeremy Hellickson, and Ivan Nova — can’t be ruled out, but doesn’t seem particularly likely. They could seek some functional innings from a pitcher in the mold of Doug Fister, Jorge De La Rosa, Charlie Morton, or (for a budget option) Tommy Milone, though it’s fair to wonder whether that’s really what the team needs. A calculated gamble on Cashner would make quite a bit of sense — were it not for the fact that he struggled badly in Miami (and really doesn’t like its no-beard policy). Edinson Volquez is a workhorse who still has pretty good velocity, so he’d look to be a reasonable fit.

Assuming that Phelps remains in the rotation, the top two pen options will remain A.J. Ramos and Kyle Barraclough. Recent trade addition Hunter Cervenka looks to be the primary southpaw set-up man, but he’ll likely be joined by another lefty. A new deal with Mike Dunn could make sense. Nick Wittgren probably has a job secured after a strong season. Brian Ellington has posted a sub-3.00 ERA in each of the last two years, and could take a job even if his peripherals don’t quite support the results. There are a variety of other internal options, including some of the youngsters noted above who are being developed as starters, but there’s plenty of room for improvement and good reason to think the Fish will look to add one or two useful veteran righties. Dustin McGowan had a successful season and could return, and the free agent market contains a wide variety of veteran performers with late-inning experience (including Sergio Romo, Joaquin Benoit, Santiago Casilla, and the hard-throwing Daniel Hudson).

All told, there’s quite a bit of variability for the Marlins this winter, especially if they go hunting for a high-quality rotation piece. What does seem clear is that the organization won’t stop trying to contend. The team dealt some intriguing assets for Cashner despite a mediocre postseason outlook. And even after the disheartening loss of Fernandez, Miami struck a new deal with the veteran Prado. While it’s probably optimistic to expect a division title even with a fairly aggressive offseason, the Marlins could certainly profile as a solid Wild Card contender if they manage to bolster the pitching staff and make a few good calls on role players.

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2016-17 Offseason Outlook MLBTR Originals Miami Marlins

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Offseason Outlook: Houston Astros

By Connor Byrne | October 29, 2016 at 10:06pm CDT

MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams. Click here for the other entries in this series.

After snapping a nine-year playoff drought a season ago, the Astros entered the 2016 campaign with championship aspirations. A dreadful April ultimately helped doom the Astros to a third-place finish in the American League West, but they still recorded their second straight winning season for the first time in a decade. Given the plethora of talent that’s already in place, a productive offseason from general manager Jeff Luhnow would restart the hype machine for Houston next spring.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Yulieski Gurriel, IF/OF: $44MM through 2020
  • Tony Sipp, RP: $12MM through 2018
  • Luke Gregerson, RP: $6.25MM through 2017
  • Jose Altuve, 2B: $4.5MM through 2017 (club options for 2018 and 2019)
  • Jon Singleton, 1B: $4MM through 2018 (club options from 2019-2021)

Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections via MLB Trade Rumors)

  • Marwin Gonzalez (4.133) – $3.6MM
  • Dallas Keuchel (4.089) – $9.5MM
  • Will Harris (3.102) – $2.5MM
  • Mike Fiers (3.085) – $4.3MM
  • Collin McHugh (3.085) – $4.6MM
  • George Springer (2.166) – $4.7MM
  • Jake Marisnick (2.135) – $1.1MM

Contract Options

  • Pat Neshek, RP: $6.5MM club option ($500K buyout)
  • Evan Gattis, C/DH: $5.2MM club option ($100K buyout)

Free Agents

Colby Rasmus, Doug Fister, Luis Valbuena, Jason Castro

Astros Depth Chart; Astros Payroll Information

At the outset of the season, the Astros had an enviable long-term core of position players consisting of second baseman Jose Altuve, shortstop Carlos Correa and right fielder George Springer. That group welcomed two new members during the summer in Alex Bregman and Yulieski Gurriel. The arrival of the 22-year-old Bregman, whom the Astros chose second overall in the 2015 draft, wasn’t surprising. But the addition of Gurriel, 32, from outside the organization was an eye-opener. Houston won the much-hyped sweepstakes for the the longtime Cuban superstar in July, inking him to a five-year, $47.5MM pact.

Gurriel’s deal is the largest free agent contract the Astros have handed out since Jim Crane purchased the franchise in 2011. The Astros were in a rebuild in the first few years of Crane’s tenure, thus leading to limited payrolls – including a comically low $26MM and change in 2013. While the Astros have spent far more liberally of late, the $96MM-plus payroll with which they opened this year still ranked toward the bottom of the majors. In discussing his offseason plans earlier this month, Luhnow revealed that Houston aims to spend on outside acquisitions, saying, “We’re going to have the resources to go out and sign some players.”

The Luhnow-led Astros took a modest approach to free agency last winter, when the only multiyear deal they doled out went to reliever Tony Sipp (three years, $18MM). They also reeled in starter Doug Fister for $7MM and retained outfielder Colby Rasmus, who eschewed the open market in favor of the Astros’ $15.8MM qualifying offer. Those two are without contracts again, and after their mediocre performances this year, it’s doubtful Houston will re-sign either (Luhnow has all but said Rasmus’ tenure with the Astros is over).

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Two other notable Astros, third baseman Luis Valbuena and catcher Jason Castro, are also unsigned. Valbuena has been a solid offensive producer in his two seasons in Houston, but as primarily a third baseman, he might not have a place on the team anymore. Either Bregman or Gurriel will take over at the hot corner (Luhnow called Bregman’s rookie showing there “exceptional”), and with them around, Valbuena’s only hope to stay with the Astros could be as a first baseman. Even that might not be realistic if Gurriel is the Astros’ choice to man first.

In Castro’s case, the Astros have a “strong desire” to keep the backstop around, according to Luhnow. Castro combines roughly league-average offense relative to his position with defensive excellence, so losing him wouldn’t be an ideal outcome for the Astros. However, as one of the majors’ most accomplished soon-to-be free agent catchers (Matt Wieters, Wilson Ramos and Nick Hundley are the others), he’s a candidate to find a raise and full-time work with another team.

Given that the Astros relied so heavily on Fister, Rasmus, Valbuena and Castro this year, their statuses will certainly affect how the club handles the offseason. Fister tossed the Astros’ second-most innings (180 1/3), so venturing outside the organization for a replacement is possible. Rasmus played more than half the season in left field and was actually one of the league’s elite defenders. As mentioned, the Astros have ready-made successors to Valbuena at third, though bringing him back as a first baseman would take away a potential need there.

Behind the plate, it’s likely Castro’s exit would at least mean adding a backup to slugger Evan Gattis, whose $5.2MM club option the Astros will exercise. Houston has other backstops under control in Max Stassi and Tyler Heineman, but opting for a free agent like Kurt Suzuki, Geovany Soto or Alex Avila instead isn’t out of the question. While Gattis earned mostly positive defensive marks from Baseball Prospectus and StatCorner in his 52 games at catcher this year, the Astros could be more comfortable with him as mainly a designated hitter. If so, the urgency to lock up Castro, obtain Wieters or Hundley, or pursue a trade for a veteran (the Yankees’ Brian McCann or the Padres’ Derek Norris, to name a couple) would seemingly increase. While Ramos could draw the Astros’ interest, too, it’s difficult to speculate on a player who had major knee surgery earlier this month.

Along with catcher, Luhnow has publicly identified first base and the outfield as areas worth addressing. The Astros entered the season hoping then-highly touted prospect A.J. Reed would force his way into the everyday first base role, but he didn’t resemble a major league-caliber option in his 45-game, 141-plate appearance introduction (.164/.270/.262). Tyler White was also subpar in 276 PAs (.217/.286/.378), utilityman Marwin Gonzalez doesn’t have the bat to handle the position, and Jon Singleton might be a lost cause. If Luhnow doesn’t want to hand the reins at first to those four or Gurriel, who could head to the outfield if Bregman stays at third, there will be potential solutions on the open market.

The Blue Jays’ Edwin Encarnacion is the premier soon-to-be available choice at first – and the right-handed hitter would donate plenty of souvenirs to the fans sitting in Minute Maid Park’s Crawford Boxes in left field – but the 33-year-old (34 in January) is a good bet to garner $20MM-plus per annum on a multiyear deal.While the Orioles’ Mark Trumbo and the Indians’ Mike Napoli should cost significantly less than Encarnacion, they might be too similar to former Astro Chris Carter for Luhnow’s taste. Two more Orioles, Steve Pearce and Pedro Alvarez, and the Cardinals’ Brandon Moss are also worth monitoring. Alvarez or Moss would provide a much-needed left-handed bat to a lineup whose best returning hitters (Altuve, Correa, Springer, Bregman, Gattis and Gurriel) are all righties. However, those two are also Carter-esque.

Shifting to the outfield, Houston could add two new starters to join Springer, though it’ll be just one if Bregman or Gurriel takes a spot. Aside from failed Astros experiment Carlos Gomez, some of the most established center field choices on the market will include another ex-Astro, switch-hitting Cub Dexter Fowler, as well as the Rangers’ Ian Desmond and the Padres’ Jon Jay. Both Fowler and Desmond will net sizable contracts. That won’t be the case with the lefty-swinging Jay, whom the Cardinals drafted when Luhnow was in their front office in 2006.

The Astros also have center field possibilities within their ranks in Springer, Jake Marisnick, Teoscar Hernandez and Derek Fisher. Although defensively gifted, Marisnick has not established himself as an everyday player because of his negative offensive value. Hernandez, meanwhile, fared respectably at the plate in his first taste of the majors (.230/.304/.420) after several solid years in the minors. Fisher, whom Baseball America ranked as the sport’s 94th-best prospect in July, has done nothing but rake since the Astros chose him in the first round of the 2014 draft (Fisher could also succeed Rasmus in left).

In the corners, free agents like Yoenis Cespedes, Jose Bautista and the lefty-swinging Josh Reddick could pique the Astros’ interest. Cespedes is likely to sign the richest deal in free agency this winter, of course, so landing him might be a pipe dream for Houston. Bautista’s also going to command a high annual salary despite the fact that he’s 36 and seemingly on the decline.

The Astros had seven of Baseball America’s 100 best prospects at midseason (including Bregman but excluding Reed), so Luhnow could conceivably use his farm system and some of the youth on the Astros’ roster to acquire proven talent from other clubs. In the outfield, ex-Astro J.D. Martinez (Tigers), Andrew McCutchen (Pirates), Charlie Blackmon (Rockies), Carlos Gonzalez (Rockies), Yasiel Puig (Dodgers), Lorenzo Cain (Royals), Jorge Soler (Cubs), Ryan Braun (Brewers) and Jay Bruce (Mets) have all gone through the rumor mill in recent months.

The trade route’s also a possibility if the Astros try to upgrade their rotation in the offseason, as free agency won’t feature any front-end starters other than the Dodgers’ Rich Hill. Assuming their GMs would want Bregman in return, it’s probably fair to immediately rule out acquiring either of the White Sox’s aces – Chris Sale and Jose Quintana – and the Rays’ Chris Archer. Swinging a deal for Ervin Santana (Twins), Jake Odorizzi or Drew Smyly (Rays), Gio Gonzalez (Nationals), Jaime Garcia (Cardinals), Jason Hammel (Cubs) or Clay Buchholz (Red Sox) would be a more achievable goal, though it’s obviously not a lock any will move. Odorizzi and Smyly seldom generate ground balls, which would make them questionable fits for Minute Maid Park – especially with the removal of Tal’s Hill causing the center field fence to come in 27 feet (436 to 409). Garcia, on the other hand, is adept at inducing grounders and would benefit from exchanging the Cardinals’ infielders for the Astros’. Further, Luhnow was with the Cardinals when they drafted Garcia in 2005.

Although Houston’s rotation was a letdown in 2016, not picking up a starter from outside the organization over the next few months wouldn’t necessarily be catastrophic. The Astros currently have a full rotation on paper with 2015 AL Cy Young winner/2016 disappointment Dallas Keuchel, Lance McCullers, Collin McHugh, Joe Musgrove and Mike Fiers. Prospects Francis Martes, David Paulino and Brady Rodgers are in the mix, too, and Luhnow has expressed a desire to transition quietly superb reliever Chris Devenski to a starting role. Grabbing a veteran free agent at least deserves consideration, though, particularly with both Keuchel (shoulder) and McCullers (shoulder and elbow) having gone through injury-shortened seasons.

Sticking with the ground-ball theme, Ivan Nova, native Texan Andrew Cashner, Charlie Morton, Edinson Volquez, Jhoulys Chacin and Brett Anderson could each hit the market, but whether anyone from that group will be worth pursuing is debatable. The inconsistent, homer-prone Nova is going to sign a relatively substantial deal on account of two terrific months in Pittsburgh. Morton and Anderson just finished injury-plagued seasons (nothing new for either), and it’s no guarantee that healthy versions would be any better in 2017 than Fister was this year. The same goes for Cashner, Volquez and Chacin.

Fortunately for Houston, it has a bullpen capable of taking some of the burden off the starters. If Devenski remains a reliever after an outstanding rookie year, he’ll once again join Ken Giles, Luke Gregerson, Will Harris, Michael Feliz and the aforementioned Sipp to comprise most of the Astros’ bullpen. Jandel Gustave, who held his own after a late-season promotion, could also be a factor. Pat Neshek’s status is up in the air, meanwhile, as the team must decide whether to exercise the 36-year-old’s $6.5MM option or buy him out for $500K. Of those eight relievers, the only southpaw is Sipp, on whom left-handed hitters teed off on this year (.281/.360/.534). Luhnow is cognizant of that, having referred to the need to find another lefty as “glaring.” Signing the Cubs’ Aroldis Chapman in free agency would make the Astros’ bullpen downright frightening, but it’s tough to imagine them committing anywhere from $80MM to $100MM to a closer. Fellow impending free agents like Jerry Blevins, Brett Cecil, Mike Dunn, J.P. Howell, Boone Logan, Javier Lopez and Marc Rzepczynski are likelier targets.

Whether positively or negatively, every free agent covered thus far will contribute in 2017. But one infielder/outfielder on the market who already has Houston’s attention – Lourdes Gurriel –  isn’t a shoo-in to play in the majors next season. The Astros have shown interest in the brother of Yulieski Gurriel, whose presence could tip the scale in their favor if they make a serious attempt to woo Lourdes. The younger Gurriel became a free agent in August, but he has held off on signing because of the majors’ international bonus restrictions. Those are no longer relevant to Lourdes Gurriel, who turned 23 last week. A signing could come any day now, and until the Astros are out of the picture, they’ll be regarded as one of the favorites for Lourdes’ services because of his brother’s place in their organization.

Looking ahead to next season, whether Luhnow meaningfully upgrades the Astros’ roster in the coming months will determine if they’ll once again be on the short list of realistic World Series contenders in April. Houston didn’t follow up its 2015 coming-out party the way it wanted to, but some of the star-caliber talent already present at least gives the team a high floor. If Crane opens the purse strings and enables Luhnow to make a splash or two during the winter, the Astros could have a championship-level ceiling as early as next year.

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2016-17 Offseason Outlook Houston Astros MLBTR Originals

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Offseason Outlook: Milwaukee Brewers

By charliewilmoth | October 26, 2016 at 6:23pm CDT

MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams. Click here for the other entries in this series.

Their rebuild underway, the Brewers will spend the offseason entertaining offers for Ryan Braun and trying to find players capable of filling spots until reinforcements arrive from the minors.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Ryan Braun, OF: $76MM through 2020 (includes $4MM buyout on $15MM mutual option for 2021)
  • Matt Garza, SP: $12.5MM through 2017 (plus club/vesting option for 2018)

Arbitration Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections via MLB Trade Rumors)

  • Chris Carter (4.159) – $8.1MM
  • Martin Maldonado (4.156) – $1.6MM
  • Carlos Torres (4.114) – $2.0MM
  • Wily Peralta (3.160) – $4.4MM
  • Kirk Nieuwenhuis (3.112) – $1.6MM
  • Scooter Gennett (3.071) – $3.0MM
  • Tyler Thornburg (3.057) – $2.2MM
  • Chase Anderson (2.146) – $3.1MM
  • Non-tender candidates: Carter, Gennett, Peralta

Free Agents

  • Chris Capuano, Blaine Boyer

Brewers Depth Chart; Brewers Payroll Information

The Brewers spent 2016 taking advantage of the biggest asset rebuilding teams have that contending teams don’t: the ability to use playing time to evaluate players on the fringes. That process got them good seasons from infielder Jonathan Villar, outfielder Keon Broxton and pitchers Junior Guerra and Zach Davies, as well as lesser but still productive years from infielders Hernan Perez and Chris Carter and pitchers Jacob Barnes and Jhan Marinez.

The Brewers therefore appear to have options that are at least reasonable at many key positions. Guerra and Davies look set for the Brewers’ rotation, with the team also having Jimmy Nelson, Matt Garza, Chase Anderson and Wily Peralta in tow. (Peralta could be a non-tender candidate following an underwhelming season in which he posted a 4.86 ERA, 6.6 K/9 and 3.0 BB/9, but he performed well in the big leagues down the stretch after a stint in the minors, so it might be more likely the Brewers keep him.) In the bullpen, there’s new closer Tyler Thornburg, along with Carlos Torres, Rob Scahill and Corey Knebel.

That isn’t the core of a good team, but GM David Stearns and the Brewers likely don’t expect to be good right now. Instead, they’ll wait on new arrivals from their highly regarded farm system, and continue to try to sort out who among their current big-leaguers will be able to help their higher-upside young players.

At catcher, the Brewers will likely retain Martin Maldonado, who batted .202 and slugged .351 but with a respectable .332 OBP last season. Maldonado profiles as a backup, but the team still likely won’t pursue an established starter at the position, instead likely preferring to get looks at Andrew Susac, who they acquired when they shipped Will Smith to the Giants. The 26-year-old Susac struggled to get his big-league career going, but he’s generally hit well in the minors and still only has 1,660 career professional plate appearances since being drafted in 2011. He could benefit from more regular playing time.

In the infield, the Brewers will probably keep Carter at first, although it’s not out of the question they’ll trade or even non-tender him, since the arbitration process will value him more for his gaudy home run totals than his obvious weaknesses. Considering non-tendering a player coming off a 41-homer season may seem crazy, but Carter’s 2016 was worth just 0.9 fWAR, and his career 31.9% strikeout rate, .218 batting average and -29 Defensive Runs Saved mean he has to hit home runs at a furious pace to be more valuable than the $8.1MM salary we project he’ll receive. The Brewers have suggested Carter will return, although that isn’t yet certain.

Assuming Carter is back, he’ll presumably have the speedy Villar next to him at second base, since the team has said it prefers not to use Villar at third. That could leave Scooter Gennett without a job. Gennett’s .263/.317/.412 line in 2016 placed him near replacement level for the second consecutive year, partially because of his defense, which advanced metrics rate as mediocre. Perhaps the team could retain him and shift him to third, but it’s probably more likely he’ll be traded to a team with a big hole at second base, or perhaps non-tendered. Villar spent much of 2016 at shortstop, but well-regarded youngster Orlando Arcia will likely man the position next season.

The Brewers’ plans for third base are less clear. Perez played well while manning third part-time last year, batting .272/.302/.428 with 34 steals. His track record, though, suggests that a repeat of those numbers is unlikely, and he might profile better as a super-utility type anyway (which would still mean he’ll wind up with plenty of playing time).

That could leave the Brewers hunting for someone to play the hot corner.  An up-market player like Justin Turner seems highly unlikely. Someone like Luis Valbuena (who was previously in the Astros organization with Stearns and several current Brewers players) would make sense, particularly given that he bats left-handed and would help balance the Brewers’ very righty-heavy lineup. The team could also pursue a short-term veteran option like Kelly Johnson or old friend Aaron Hill. Johnson would make a certain amount of sense, since he and Perez could potentially form an effective platoon. Alternately, the Brewers could hunt for a trade option, or a non-tendered player, hoping to find a bit of upside, just as they did last season when they signed Will Middlebrooks to a minor league pact.

Ryan BraunThe complexion of the Brewers’ 2017 outfield will depend in large part on the potential Braun deal — the move, or non-move, that will define their offseason. Following their trades of Yovani Gallardo, Aramis Ramirez, Carlos Gomez, Mike Fiers, Jonathan Broxton, Gerardo Parra, Francisco Rodriguez, Adam Lind, Jean Segura, Khris Davis, Aaron Hill, Jeremy Jeffress, Jonathan Lucroy and Smith in recent years, Braun is one of the few valuable veterans the Brewers have left. Their return if, or when, they do finally trade him could go a long way to determining how they fare in the near future.

Braun batted .305/.365/.538 last season in his best offensive performance since 2012, so this winter would seem like an ideal time for a deal. Last summer, the Brewers and Dodgers reportedly seriously discussed a swap involving Braun, with Yasiel Puig, Brandon McCarthy and prospects heading to Milwaukee. It’s unclear how close that trade was to actually occurring, but it seems the two sides will revisit the deal this offseason, and it wouldn’t be a shock to see Braun in Dodger blue in 2017.

The value of the Brewers’ side of the deal would, of course, depend fairly heavily on the prospects involved, but the inclusion of Puig and McCarthy already makes the trade an interesting one from the Brewers’ perspective. Part of the Dodgers’ likely intention in including those players was to offset Braun’s salary, since Puig and McCarthy are set to make a combined $39.5MM through 2018. But neither Puig nor McCarthy fits the usual profile of a salary dumpee. The Brewers would get to gamble on the 25-year-old Puig’s upside, which remains considerable despite his trip to the minors last season. They would also get a solid veteran arm (albeit one who’s only recently come back from Tommy John surgery) for their rotation. McCarthy is only two years removed from pitching 200 innings with a terrific 2.85 xFIP and 52.6% ground-ball rate.

Should the Brewers be unable to consummate a Braun deal with the Dodgers, they would have no shortage of other trade suitors (although Braun’s limited no-trade clause could be a problem — as of earlier this year, he could block deals to all teams except the Dodgers, Angels, Padres, Giants, Diamondbacks and Marlins). The Giants and Braves have reportedly also had interest in Braun, and it’s likely other teams would as well. While acquiring someone like Puig in return for Braun makes sense, the Brewers don’t need to get an outfielder in a Braun deal, since they have a remarkable group of outfield prospects (including Lewis Brinson, Brett Phillips, Ryan Cordell and, lower in the minors, Corey Ray and Trent Clark).

Elsewhere in the Brewers outfield, Broxton had an outstanding second half, demonstrating plus speed and defense while batting a remarkable .294/.399/.538 before missing the last two weeks of the season due to a fractured wrist. At 26, Broxton was old for a rookie. His minor league record doesn’t suggest he can maintain the level of productivity he demonstrated in 2016, and it’s possible the wrist injury could affect him going forward. Nonetheless, his legs and glove give him a high floor, and he should be an easy choice to start in center field for the Brewers next season.

In right field, the Brewers will likely continue to give looks to Domingo Santana, with Perez potentially filling in the gaps if Santana struggles. Santana batted a respectable .256/.345/.447. Like Carter, he’s a big man who strikes out excessively and has no defensive value. Nonetheless, he warrants continued playing time, since he’s only 24 and has shown significant power potential.

It makes sense for the Brewers to keep Kirk Nieuwenhuis as a backup outfielder, given that he’ll likely cost less than $2MM in his first year of arbitration eligibility. Like many Brewers, Nieuwenhuis piles up his share of whiffs and has low batting averages. He’ll take a walk, though, and he plays all three outfield positions well and hits left-handed.

The Brewers could also aim to acquire a bit of rotation help this offseason. Of their current rotation options, only Guerra and Nelson look like much more than back-of-the-rotation types, and it’s not clear what even Nelson will become following a disappointing 2016. Nelson led the NL in walks in 2016, and if his control problems continue, it’s not hard to imagine he could wind up back at Triple-A at some point next season, since he’s optionable.

While the Brewers do have some starting pitching prospects (topped by lefty Josh Hader) who could make an impact at some point in 2017, their current group possesses limited upside and considerable downside — it’s easy to imagine the Brewers’ rotation becoming a real mess if, say, the physically slight Davies got hurt and Garza had a season more like 2015 than 2016. With Sean Nolin out for 2017 following Tommy John surgery, their depth is somewhat limited, too. The organization almost certainly won’t pursue a high-end starting pitcher, but an innings-eater might make sense. The team could also look for a high-risk, high-upside option (someone like Andrew Cashner, perhaps) in an attempt to emulate the Athletics’ success flipping Rich Hill last season. The addition of McCarthy in a potential Braun trade would also obviously help.

The Brewers already have plenty of bullpen arms to sort through, including several, like Marinez, Barnes and Knebel, who possess considerable velocity. They do, however, look likely to pursue a left-hander or two, perhaps on a minor league deal. The only healthy southpaw currently on their 40-man roster is Brent Suter, who has just 21 2/3 career innings of big-league experience and who’s mostly a starter anyway.

Whatever happens, the Brewers don’t appear likely to contend in 2017. There is, however, plenty of evidence that their rebuild is going well. They won 73 games last season, not a bad total for an organization mostly trying to address long-term goals. Their farm system is now much stronger than it was just a year and a half ago, when Baseball America rated it 19th-best in the game — thanks to a couple years of high draft picks and trades for young talent, the organization now has enviable prospect depth, and Arcia is just the first of what should be a long series of high-upside Brewers rookies. 2017 won’t be a pretty season for the Brewers, but there’s talent in Milwaukee, and more on the way.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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2016-17 Offseason Outlook MLBTR Originals Milwaukee Brewers

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