After six seasons of largely pedestrian play at the major league level, Logan Morrison enjoyed a huge power breakout in 2017. As he enters the free agent market, he’ll hope teams are willing to believe his newfound success at the plate is sustainable.
Pros/Strengths
Prior to this past season, few would have believed a prediction that “LoMo” would hit as many home runs as a healthy Edwin Encarnacion. Fast forward to October, and those two sat tied for fifth among the American League’s home run leaders (along with Justin Smoak and Mike Moustakas). The Rays first baseman also finished fifth in ISO in the AL.
Morrison’s power breakout came during a season in which he made adjustments to his swing, helping him hit more balls in the air. “Valuing… launch angle and all that stuff — has helped me out a lot,” he said to Fangraphs’ David Laurila back in August. Whatever adjustments Morrison made, they worked like a charm. His fly ball rate skyrocketed from 34.7% to 46.2%; that amounts to a whopping 33% increase in fly balls over last season.
Combined with a slight increase in hard contact, Morrison’s ground ball/fly ball profile quickly went from being one of his biggest weaknesses to his clear biggest strength as a hitter. His HR/FB ratio climbed to 22.5%, up from just 15.2% the year prior. The result was a whopping 38 homers; 15 more than his previous career high back in 2011.
Morrison became more selective this past season, too. His previous career-high walk rate was 10.3%, but the first baseman blew past that total to reach 13.5% this season. And although he has a bit of a platoon split in the power department, LoMo actually walks about as often against lefties as he does against righties. All told, his OBP at season’s end was a respectable .353.
Cons/Weaknesses
Morrison’s most significant weakness is his contact ability. The lefty-hitter whiffs in nearly a quarter of his plate appearances (24.8%), giving him the 20th-highest strikeout rate among 144 qualified hitters. While he doesn’t often swing at bad pitches, he swings and misses a lot; Morrison’s 73.7% contact rate ranks in the bottom 20th percentile in MLB. The above figures are both downgrades from recent seasons, and clearly demonstrate the double-edged sword of his newfound “swing hard in case you hit it” approach.
LoMo’s suitors can’t count on him for much in the way of defense, either. Fangraphs has rated him as being well below average in every season of his major league career. It’s worth noting, however, that UZR/150 and DRS both pegged him as an ever-so-slightly above average first baseman in 2017 after years of being down on his work, so perhaps there’s not much to worry about.
But above any of that, it would be irresponsible not to consider the risk that Morrison might fail to replicate his 2017 success. Based on his change in approach at the plate it’s certainly possible he’ll sustain this level of production, some might even say probable. Still, it can’t be overlooked that he’s played below replacement level in three of his eight major league seasons, despite the pedigree he carried as a prospect. In fact, his previous career high in fWAR was only 1.1, which isn’t even a league-average performance. There’s always a chance that what looks like a breakout season could end up simply being an outlier, and if Morrison is paid for his 2017 power output, regression to his previous self would make his contract look terrible in retrospect.
Background
Justis Logan Morrison was born in Kansas City, Missouri. His father served in the coast guard, so Morrison traveled a lot during his younger years. He attended Northshore High School in Slidell, Louisiana, and was selected by the then-Florida Marlins after his senior year in 2005. Though he decided to attend community college, he ultimately ended up signing with the Marlins prior to the 2006 draft.
Over the next four years, Morrison climbed steadily throughout the minor leagues. He ranked 20th on Baseball America’s top prospects list prior to the 2010 season; a year in which he ultimately made his major league debut and hit .283/.390/.477. On December 11th, 2013 he was traded to the Mariners in exchange for reliever Carter Capps. Morrison remained in Seattle until November 5th, 2015 when the Rays acquired him in a three-for-three swap.
Market
First basemen haven’t exactly been flying off the shelves this winter, but Morrison got a bit of bad news recently when the Red Sox re-signed Mitch Moreland to a two-year, $13MM deal. Boston reportedly met with Morrison’s representatives earlier this offseason; the organization had one of the strongest needs at first base among MLB teams (and one of baseball’s largest budgets as a means to fill it).
On the other hand, the Phillies’ three-year, $60MM agreement with Carlos Santana may actually be good news for Morrison’s market. Philadelphia was never seen as a strong candidate to sign the former Rays slugger, or really a first baseman in general; Rhys Hoskins seemed likely to open the season at first for the club, who will now be pushed to the outfield. Before he signed the offseason’s largest contract thus far, Santana was drawing strong interest from at least ten different teams within the past month, and those teams may now turn their attention to Morrison. He’s the best first baseman left on the shelves who doesn’t come with a nine-figure price tag.
The first base market is still crowded. Eric Hosmer, MLBTR’s third-ranked free agent, remains on the board as the most attractive option at the position. Yonder Alonso comes with a somewhat similar offensive profile, and could compete for attention from Morrison’s potential suitors. Lucas Duda, Mark Reynolds and Adam Lind are still hanging around in the bargain bin. Jose Abreu of the White Sox could still be traded, too.
Morrison has been connected to the Angels, who have already made a flurry of moves this offseason to improve their shot at a 2018 AL West pennant. It makes sense to think they could continue to explore signing him. The Rockies and Indians are both firmly in the market for a first baseman, while the Mariners, Astros and a reunion with the Rays all make some level of sense.
Expected Contract
The situation for Morrison doesn’t look much better or worse than it did at the outset of this offseason. The elimination of the Red Sox as a potential suitor hurts, but the average annual value of the contract given to Santana could work in LoMo’s favor during contract negotiations. All told, I think MLBTR’s original prediction of $36MM over a three-year term holds up well to this point.
more than likely it was a career year for him however there is a chance he could be the best bargain this off season position player wise on thisbfree agent market
I’m going to go with the “under” on MLBTR original prediction. He had a lot of bombs but this was an outlier possibly. Not sure teams will buy in to this as the beginning or as an lucky year. Plus the market is saturated with guys who do the same things. Bad year to be a FA with this profile I believe.
I agree; last year was a bad time to be a player like this, and it’s probably only going to stay that way moving forward in the near future. Someone’s going to get a deal with one of these guys, but none of them really inspire a lot of excitement with me no matter what the price tag is.
Rest of his career he is inferior offensively to Moreland with no glove. Having what could have been a fluke season in 2017, then hitting FA could explode on a team giving him any kind of 3 and 30m+ contract, IMO he’s not worth what Moreland just got.
Is he no longer regarded as a 1B/Corner Outfielder? I know he didn’t play any OF last year but couldn’t he still play it in a pinch?
He too thicc to play the OF
I just pray the Mets don’t sign this guy. Certainly not for 3 years. Someone should give him 1 year with a team option. Do it twice before you get a multi-year guarantee.
It seems to me that teams would be wise to offer Morrison 1/$10M +/- to make sure 2017 was NOT an anomaly…then offer him more years and a higher AAV next offseason, if he performs as well in 2018.
I think you offer $9M first year with a $12M option year, then maybe another option year. I don’t think his demand is high enough to guarantee 3/36
You forgot this under cons: Huge Trump supporter, all around loud mouth racist.
So you disagree with his politics. Therefore he’s wrong. How tolerant of you.
Morrison isn’t racist dumb Yankees fan
not sure about the trump thing.
but Id take the under
he got 1 year for $2.5 LAST YEAR
Id say 1 year for $8 mill this year
He’s also way too Dumb Thicc to play the OF
Where did you get this he’s a racist thing from? Because he didn’t want Gary Sanchez in the Home Run Derby, and since Sanchez isn’t from The US, you consider that racist? At the time, Sanchez only had 13 homers, tied for 40th in the league.
Wait wait wait…did you just profile Morrison and not highlight his RIDICULOUS home/road splits? They make all the difference regarding his appeal.
Morrison was a quality hitter his first two seasons before dropping off quite a bit, and then finally reinvented himself the past couple of season. BUT…not coincidentally, Morrison’s team moved to a new park (a pitcher’s park) after his first two seasons, and he has spent literally the entire rest of his career with MAJOR pitcher parks for his home ballpark ever since. And as a fly ball hitter, Morrison is especially susceptible to ballpark dimensions.
Here are the numbers since 2012 for all to see:
’12-’17 Home – .219/.298/.362, 0.662 OPS, 1141 ABs, 48 2Bs, 36 HRs, 0.257 BABIP
’12-’17 Road – .262/.349/.488, 0.837, 1106 ABs, 55 2Bs, 61 HRs, 0.281 BABIP
Look at that difference! Morrison has been garbage (for a 1Bman) at home for a LONG time now, but has been quite good on the road, When you factor in that a typical player hits better at home than on the road (including Morrison his first couple of years, so this isn’t about him liking the road more), he should probably have been about an 0.850 OPS player all this time in an average ballpark. The BABIP numbers tell the entire story too – he has exactly the sort of BABIP on the road that you would expect from a fly-ball hitter, and an outrageously low BABIP at home that can only be explained as his fly balls being swallowed up by deep fences.
This was as extreme as ever last season:
’17 Home – .219/.310/.398
’17 Road – .272/.392/.628(!)
If you showed me splits like that but said the home and road labels were reversed, I would say that you just showed me a Colorado Rockies player who especially benefits from Coors. Just how good would Morrison be in, say, Baltimore, or New York, or Toronto? Would he hit 45+ HRs? I think someone is going to get a steal here.
If a team needs a cheap short term first baseman this is the market for it. Wonder where the others will land once Hosmer eventually signs. I can see one to two year deals for guys like Morrison and alonso with a team option in there somewhere
He’d look great in an Angels uniform.
Also, who determines your password strength? Apparently, trying to use a 10-character password sporting numbers, symbols, and upper- and lower-case letters is too weak, but ‘mlbtrsux’ works.
It took me over 20 minutes to make my account due to that garbage
Watch and see what happens here. Since the Rangers are in need of a power hitting first baseman he will sign a multi year deal with the Rangers.
Lomo had to take a smaller deal last year to again prove himself. I think it’s time you pay the guy. If Lomo hits you 27 bombs a year you would take that out of a DH spot, no? 2 years, $22 million.
st louis needs to go ahead and trade for jose abreu
Sounds good Cardinal fan. WSox could use Carson Kelly and one of your decent P prospects if they don’t like the free agent 1B alternatives. WSox content to keep Abreu unless someone wows them.
Cleveland will flirt with signing him.
They don’t call it a contract year for nothing. He was always “potential” but mostly a venerable bust. I’m sure some GM (that will be looking for a job in a year or so) will sign him to a 2/30M or 3/45M deal. I’d wage her only hits >25 Hrs 1x after getting a deal.
I believe Morrison has rather openly campaigned to take over in KC should Hosmer leave. But to me it’s looking more likely that Hosmer returns if the market continues to be sludgy. Morrison’s grandmother lives in KC and he’s commented that it would be nice for her to see him play home games. Of course, that’s all nice and good….so we’ll see.
The Royals have to wait out the Hoz situation before they could sign LoMo which sort of handcuffs them. And they still need to dump Soria and Hammel off on somebody. Honestly I’d be fine with LoMo playing first for the Royals if it’s a cheaper two year deal. (Maybe 22 mil plus a 3 mil buyout on a third year mutual option.) That being said, I don’t know how much he would help the team. We’re gonna stink either way.
I think Morrison has a decent shot of posting as good of offensive numbers as Hosmer….who I feel is overrated. They could still fairly replicate the pieces they are losing. Royals have always been sum greater than parts with this current team. Yeah, they seem handcuffed waiting our their players. Just hate to see them go for the middle ground and stay .500 for awhile because it won’t help a rebuild and Glass isn’t going to let them resign AND boost payroll to help them out.