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2020-21 Offseason Outlook

Offseason Outlook: San Diego Padres

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The 2020 campaign represented a major step in the right direction for the Padres, who clinched their first playoff berth since 2006 and advanced in the postseason for the first time since 1998. While things are no doubt looking up for the franchise, its offseason hasn’t come without some drastic changes in the early going. The team found out earlier this week that right-hander Mike Clevinger won’t pitch in 2021 after undergoing Tommy John surgery, and then executive chairman Ron Fowler stepped down from his role. Fowler’s exit leaves the Padres with a new control person in Ron Seidler.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Manny Machado, 3B: $240MM through 2028
  • Eric Hosmer, 1B: $79MM through 2025
  • Wil Myers, OF: $41MM through 2022 (including $1MM buyout for 2023)
  • Drew Pomeranz, LHP: $22MM through 2023
  • Mike Clevinger, RHP: $11.5MM through 2022
  • Craig Stammen, RHP: $5MM through 2021 (including $1MM buyout for 2022)
  • Pierce Johnson, RHP: $3MM through 2021 (including $1MM buyout for 2022)

Arbitration-Eligible Players

Note on arb-eligible players: this year’s arbitration projections are more volatile than ever, given the unprecedented revenue losses felt by clubs and the shortened 2020 schedule. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, who developed our arbitration projection model, used three different methods to calculate different projection numbers. You can see the full projections and an explanation of each if you click here, but for the purposes of our Outlook series, we’ll be using Matt’s 37-percent method — extrapolating what degree of raise a player’s 2020 rate of play would have earned him in a full 162-game slate and then awarding him 37 percent of that raise.

Option Decisions

Free Agents

The Padres are fortunate enough that they shouldn’t have to spend much time worrying about their catcher position or their infield in the coming months. In-season acquisition Austin Nola looks like the answer as the Padres’ primary backstop, though they may have to decide whether to deploy Francisco Mejia as his backup, use him as a trade chip and turn the role over to Luis Campusano, or shop for help from outside the organization. Other than that, the Padres look set with the superstar third base-shortstop tandem of Manny Machado and Fernando Tatis Jr. on the left side of their infield and second baseman Jake Cronenworth and first baseman Eric Hosmer occupying the other positions. The main concern in that group is Tatis’ future, as the Padres have to worry about keeping him in the fold for the long haul with a contract extension. The two sides have already expressed interest in mapping out a long-term arrangement.

There is less certainty in the outfield, though the Padres appear to have their solution in center with Trent Grisham. Right fielder Wil Myers had a tremendous bounce-back year in 2020, but if the Padres had their druthers, perhaps they would move on from the pricey three seasons left on his contract in a trade. That looks unlikely unless San Diego takes back a similarly inflated contract, so Myers figures to remain with the team. While those two positions may be spoken for going forward, left field looks like less of a sure thing. The Padres could just keep Tommy Pham, but his production cratered during an injury-shortened 2020, and non-tendering him would save the Padres about $8MM. Meanwhile, Jurickson Profar – who played more games in left than any other Padre last season – is a free agent.

If the Padres say goodbye to Pham, there’s a case that they should just re-sign Profar, who had a respectable year. Otherwise, Michael Brantley, Joc Pederson, Brett Gardner and Robbie Grossman are among those they could target in free agency. Of course, more choices will become available when teams announce which players they’re non-tendering.

With Clevinger, Dinelson Lamet, Zach Davies and Chris Paddack comprising 80 percent of their starting staff, the Padres’ rotation seemed to be in enviable shape just a couple days ago. Their confidence probably took a hit Wednesday, though, with Clevinger’s out-of-nowhere TJ procedure. He won’t be a factor next year, but the Padres do still have most of their rotation settled with Lamet and Davies, who each broke out in 2020, and Paddack. They also feature MacKenzie Gore, Luis Patino, Adrian Morejon, Joey Lucchesi and Ryan Weathers as in-house options who could assume starting spots in 2021.

If the Padres don’t want to turn over spots to two members of that group, they’ll have plenty of free-agent possibilities. Southern California native Trevor Bauer is easily the cream of the crop, but signing him may require the Padres to hand out yet another nine-figure contract. More modest options include their own free agent, Garrett Richards, as well as Masahiro Tanaka, Jake Odorizzi, ex-Friar Corey Kluber, Jose Quintana and James Paxton, among others. The Padres also look like a realistic trade suitor for the Rangers’ Lance Lynn, who’s due a modest $8MM next year and whom his team seems likely to trade.

The bullpen may be an area of some emphasis in the offseason for the Padres, who could lose summer pickup Trevor Rosenthal in free agency. Former star closer Kirby Yates is also on the market, though he didn’t pitch much in 2020 because of injuries. That said, the Padres do have a lot of their 2021 bullpen already figured out with Drew Pomeranz, Emilio Pagan, Pierce Johnson, Matt Strahm and Craig Stammen set to reprise their roles. Austin Adams and Tim Hill are along among the veterans remaining in the mix, but it still wouldn’t be a surprise to see the Padres seek bullpen help from elsewhere. The big prize could be Josh Hader, whom the Brewers are open to trading; otherwise, in no particular order, Rosenthal, Yates, former Padre Brad Hand, Liam Hendriks, Blake Treinen, Trevor May, Jake McGee, Mark Melancon and Shane Greene are some late-game hurlers who should draw their share of interest in free agency.

With the Padres in the throes of a seemingly endless playoff drought at this time last offseason, general manager A.J. Preller had his back up against the wall a winter ago. Preller and the team he built found a way to deliver, though, and now the Padres look like a club that should contend again in 2021 with another productive offseason. The Padres are short on glaring holes, but there is at least room for improvement in their pitching staff and perhaps their outfield.

Offseason Outlook: Detroit Tigers

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The Tigers made notable progress in 2020 (granted, there was nowhere to go but up after their previous campaign), but they still finished well under .500 for the fourth straight year. GM Al Avila has already hired A.J. Hinch to replace the retired Ron Gardenhire as the Tigers’ next manager. The next step is improving their roster.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Miguel Cabrera, 1B/DH: $102MM through 2023 (including $8MM buyout for 2023)

Arbitration-Eligible Players

Note on arb-eligible players: this year’s arbitration projections are more volatile than ever, given the unprecedented revenue losses felt by clubs and the shortened 2020 schedule. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, who developed our arbitration projection model, used three different methods to calculate different projection numbers. You can see the full projections and an explanation of each if you click here, but for the purposes of our Outlook series, we’ll be using Matt’s 37-percent method — extrapolating what degree of raise a player’s 2020 rate of play would have earned him in a full 162-game slate and then awarding him 37 percent of that raise.

Free Agents

Let’s start with the infield, which could see quite a shakeup this offseason. The Tigers had a couple of 20-something breakout players there in shortstop Willi Castro and third baseman/first baseman Jeimer Candelario, but it’s not clear where either will primarily line up next season.

In regards to Castro, Avila said after the season (via Evan Woodbery of MLive.com), “We feel he has the athletic ability to play anywhere in the infield.”

Although Castro had a huge offensive year at short, that doesn’t mean the Tigers will keep him there. They may instead be tempted to pursue Korean star Ha-Seong Kim, a 24-year-old whom the KBO’s Kiwoom Heroes will post this offseason. According to Baseball America, Kim’s a top 100-caliber prospect, so lots of teams – including rebuilding clubs – should be after him. From Detroit’s perspective, it would seemingly make sense to bring in Kim as a Day 1 starter, either as a third baseman or shortstop. If it’s the latter, the Tigers could put Castro at the keystone, move on from free agent Jonathan Schoop and eschew the rest of the middle class of second base free agents (Kolten Wong, Cesar Hernandez and Tommy La Stella are among those names).

Candelario, meanwhile, began the year as the Tigers’ third baseman, but he shifted to first after C.J. Cron underwent season-ending knee surgery in August. Cron’s a free agent who’s near the top of a weak class for free-agent first basemen; so, rather than go back to him or try for a different veteran first baseman (Carlos Santana and Justin Smoak are also a couple of names out there), perhaps the Tigers will leave Candelario at the position. A Candelario-Castro-Kim scenario from right to left would leave the Tigers with a potential need at third, though they may simply decide to let Isaac Paredes sink or swim there or sign someone like Jake Lamb or Marwin Gonzalez to man the spot. Paredes, for his part, had a very rough debut as the Tigers’ top third baseman in 2020, but he’s still just 21 years old and not far removed from top 100 status as a prospect.

Elsewhere in the Tigers’ lineup, it’s unclear how they’ll handle catcher or assemble their outfield. They signed former Yankees catcher Austin Romine to a $4.1MM guarantee last offseason with the hope that he’d emerge as a true full-time player, but he instead endured an awful season and is once again due to reach free agency. Detroit’s other choices, Grayson Greiner and Eric Haase, also produced next to nothing at the plate, while Jake Rogers still hasn’t established himself at the MLB level.

Avila said last month he’d like offensive help behind the plate, but he seemed to suggest he’d rather rely on the eventual emergence of Rogers. It’s unknown, then, whether the Tigers will seek veteran help at the position in the offseason. If they do, the Tigers probably won’t be be in on the two best free-agent catchers available, J.T. Realmuto and ex-Tiger James McCann. However, the GM’s son, former Tiger Alex Avila, as well as Yadier Molina, Jason Castro, Mike Zunino, Wilson Ramos, Kurt Suzuki, Robinson Chirinos and Tyler Flowers are available as Band-Aids if the team wants to bridge the gap to Rogers in free agency. Gary Sanchez could also end up in free agency or as an attainable trade target if the Yankees decide to move on from him.

The Tigers are probably content with two-thirds of their outfield with center fielder JaCoby Jones and corner man Victor Reyes. The other spot may be up for grabs, though, as Christin Stewart didn’t hit in either of the previous two seasons, they can’t count on Niko Goodrum as a regular, and Daz Cameron hasn’t shown he’s ready for a full-time major league role. MLBTR predicts the club will supplement its outfield with a Jurickson Profar signing, but Joc Pederson, Robbie Grossman, Kevin Pillar and Adam Eaton are among others it could spend on for short-term help.

Turning to the pitching side, the Tigers seem to have three-fifths of next year’s rotation set with Matthew Boyd, Spencer Turnbull and Michael Fulmer. But Turnbull was the only member of the trio who performed well in 2020. Boyd looked like a breakout candidate as recently as the first half of 2019, but his production has fallen off a cliff since then. The Tigers will soon have to make a decision on whether to retain Boyd, as Anthony Franco of MLBTR explained last weekend. Like Boyd, Fulmer has shown flashes in the past, but he’s coming off a rough return from Tommy John surgery.

Beyond Boyd, Turnbull and Fulmer, the Tigers do have some rather promising young hurlers in Casey Mize, Tarik Skubal, Matt Manning and Alex Faedo – four of their top prospects. Mize and Skuball debuted in the majors in 2020, though they had trouble keeping runs off the board in their first taste of MLB action.

Any of Mize, Skubal, Manning or Faedo could factor into the Tigers’ rotation next year, but it seems they’ll look to take some pressure off by adding at least one veteran this offseason. They’ve already shown interest in free agent Taijuan Walker, who could be a reasonably priced acquisition on a one- or tw0-year deal. Former Tiger Rick Porcello, Garrett Richards, Martin Perez and Mike Minor might also be among potential targets for the team.

Moving to the bullpen, the Tigers look to be mostly set with what they have. Daniel Norris blossomed in a relief role in 2020, while Jose Cisnero also turned in encouraging results. Bryan Garcia, Gregory Soto, Buck Farmer and Tyler Alexander also probably aren’t going anywhere, though there’s at least room for improvement over John Schreiber and Joe Jimenez (the latter looks like a non-tender candidate). That’s not to say the Tigers will shop near the top of the market for relief help, but with the wealth of veteran bullpen options looking for deals, they should be able to improve their late-game outlook in free agency.

The Tigers have had their share of aggressive offseasons in the past, but they have been relatively quiet of late during their rebuild. Once again, the Tigers probably won’t be that active this winter. That said, with some legitimate talent in or near the majors and a rising farm system led by last year’s No. 1 overall pick, first baseman Spencer Torkelson, Detroit’s time is coming.

Offseason Outlook: Colorado Rockies

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For a second straight offseason, Rockies owner Dick Monfort set the stage for a tight-budgeted winter for his club. “There will be nothing normal about this offseason as the industry faces a new economic reality, and each club will have to adjust,” Monfort wrote in a letter to season ticketholders at the end of October.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Nolan Arenado, 3B: $199MM through 2026 (Arenado can opt out of the contract after 2021)
  • German Marquez, RHP: $36MM through 2023 (includes buyout of 2024 club option)
  • Charlie Blackmon, OF: $21MM through 2021 (contract contains player options for 2022-23)
  • Trevor Story, SS: $17.5MM through 2021
  • Scott Oberg, RHP: $11MM through 2022
  • Ian Desmond, INF/OF: $10MM through 2021 (includes buyout of 2022 club option)

Arbitration-Eligible Players

This year’s arbitration projections are more volatile than ever, given the unprecedented revenue losses felt by clubs and the shortened 2020 schedule. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, who developed our arbitration projection model, used three different methods to calculate different projection numbers. You can see the full projections and an explanation of each if you click here, but for the purposes of our Outlook series, we’ll be using Matt’s 37-percent method — extrapolating what degree of raise a player’s 2020 rate of play would have earned him in a full 162-game slate and then awarding him 37 percent of that raise.

Option Decisions

  • Declined $15MM mutual option on RHP Wade Davis (paid $1MM buyout)
  • Declined $12MM mutual option on 1B Daniel Murphy (paid $6MM buyout)

Free Agents

Despite a 91-loss season in 2019 and an offseason that lacked any meaningful additions to the roster, Monfort projected a 94-win campaign for his club in 2020. The Rox got out to a hot start, but their eventual .433 winning percentage was actually worse than their .438 mark in 2019. Now, they’re faced with similar payroll constraints and the continued awkward saga with a franchise icon, Nolan Arenado.

Monfort opened the 2019-20 offseason by declaring a lack of payroll flexibility, and while he stopped a bit short of being so on the nose, his email to fans and a quick look at Colorado’s payroll ledger show that they’re likely in a similar boat. The Rox were set to open the 2020 season with a roughly $146MM payroll prior to prorating salaries, and despite the fact that the contracts of Daniel Murphy, Wade Davis, Jake McGee and Bryan Shaw are off the books, they’re not far from that range.

The Rox owe a combined $93MM to Arenado, Trevor Story, German Marquez, Ian Desmond and Scott Oberg. Even if they non-tender all of the candidates listed above, that figure could rise into the $115MM range. Add in pre-arbitration players and the $7MM worth of option buyouts they paid after the World Series, and the Rockies don’t seem like a club that is teeming with surplus cash. They may not quite be to 2020 levels of payroll, but that was already a franchise-record outlay. We can’t assume they’re comfortable returning to that level, so it appears spending will be measured.

It’s that financial outlook, paired with Arenado’s persistent frustration, that have led to overwhelming trade speculation. Onlookers ought to be plenty familiar with the public nature of Arenado’s dissatisfaction at this point; the five-time All-Star flatly said he felt “disrespected” by the organization last winter. Arenado was reportedly was frustrated with the team’s lack of offseason activity, despite a promise at the time of his extension to make consistent efforts to field a winning club. Arenado told Denver 7’s Troy Renck last February that general manager Jeff Bridich, in particular, is “disrespectful.”

Given another poor showing and playoff miss from the Rox, many fans and pundits alike expect an Arenado trade to be a focal point of the club’s offseason. It is indeed reasonable to expect that the club will explore the market, but the path to an actual trade is anything but straightforward. Arenado has six years and $199MM remaining on his contract — an enormous sum that is sure to cause owners around the game to balk at a time when most clubs are frantically cutting costs.

Looming beyond the overall commitment is the fact that Arenado can opt out of the contract next winter. In many ways, that creates a lose-lose situation for interested parties. Arenado could play at his customary superstar level, enjoy another lofty finish in MVP voting and bolt for free agency. Alternatively, if he struggles or sustains a major injury, any acquiring club would be left with the remaining five years and $164MM on the contract. When the best-case scenario is one year of elite play and the worst-case scenario is six years of a $33MM+ salary for a player whose production has taken a step back, how much surplus value is there for the Rockies to peddle?

The elephant in the room is that Arenado simply didn’t have a great 2020 season. He did still secure his eighth Gold Glove in his eighth Major League season, but Arenado logged a rather bleak .253/.303/.434 slash in this year’s 201 plate appearances — output that is miles from the .295/.351/.546 line he posted in his career prior to 2020. Arenado entered the year with a 120 wRC+ — production 20 percent better than a league-average hitter when weighted for home park and league — and turned in a mark of 76 in 2020 (24 percent worse than a league-average bat).

One could argue that there’s some bad luck at play, and that could be partly true. However, Arenado’s 87.3 mph average exit velocity, 33.7 percent hard-hit rate and 5.4 percent barrel rate were all far and away the lowest of his career. Paired with his enormous salary and the opt-out downside, some clubs may not feel Arenado has much positive trade value. That’s an outlandish-looking comment at first blush, but at the very least, the Rockies won’t be getting a king’s ransom in a trade. They’ll quite possibly have trouble convincing another team to pay the full freight of the contract.

If the Rox are looking to offload salary while adding some controllable young talent, shortstop Trevor Story is the easier piece to market, as MLBTR’s Jeff Todd recently explored. We’ll avoid rehashing his argument at too great a length, but suffice it to say that a 28-year-old career .277/.343/.535 hitter (114 wRC+) with high-end defense of his own is a pretty desirable player under any circumstance — but certainly when he is playing on an eminently more reasonable one-year, $17.5MM pact. Any of the Phillies, Reds or Angels would stand out as a clear fit, and other contenders like the Yankees, Twins or Blue Jays could make sense if they shuffle some pieces around. Top prospect Brendan Rodgers, meanwhile, is on hand for the Rox as a potential heir to Story’s spot.

Of course, while the focus of this outlook thus far has been on the possibility of dealing away a star infielder, that would be a dramatic 180-degree turn from how this organization has operated. Monfort has been almost fatally optimistic about the players the Rockies have in house. In addition to last year’s 94-win proclamation, the Rockies functioned as buyers at this year’s trade deadline, dealing from an already thin farm to acquire Kevin Pillar and Mychal Givens. Monfort may yet hold out the belief that this core group can put together a legitimate World Series run.

Should that prove to be the case, it’s not clear just how the Rockies can piece together the requisite upgrades to supplement a flawed core. Even if the Rockies are able to clear some payroll space, the work needed is considerable.

Colorado starters ranked 20th in the Majors in both ERA (4.83) and FIP (4.88), and their bullpen was only spared from being the game’s worst because of a historically bad group in Philadelphia. Rox relievers logged a combined 6.77 ERA and 5.56 FIP this past season, and Oberg, their best reliever, is a question mark for the 2021 season after undergoing thoracic outlet surgery in September. (He did not pitch in 2020.) Yency Almonte and Daniel Bard were the only two Rockies relievers with 10-plus innings pitched and an ERA south of 5.00.

If there’s a silver lining for the Rockies in all of this, it’s that the market for relievers looks decidedly harsh for players. Brad Hand already went unclaimed on waivers at a rate of one year and $10MM, and we’ve seen several seemingly reasonable club options bought out. The Rox could have their share of affordable bullpen pieces to pursue — although they likely need to add several arms to pair with Bard, Givens, Oberg and perhaps Almonte to make this a serviceable unit. Waiting out the market and striking gold on some Bard-esque minor league pacts feels like a necessity.

In the rotation, the Rockies have several arms who have had success at various points, but only German Marquez has been particularly consistent. The trio of Gray, Kyle Freeland and Antonio Senzatela have all had intermittent success but also endured brutal stretches. With little to no help on the horizon in the farm, the Rockies would likely need to add a veteran option if they plan to continue in win-now mode. It’s difficult to convince free agents to come pitch at Coors Field, though, which will impact their pursuits both in the ’pen and rotation. Then again, if money is as tight as it appears, they’d likely be shopping in the lower tiers of the market anyhow, or perhaps trying to acquire some non-tender candidates in buy-low trades prior to the tender deadline.

On the position-player side of the roster, the Rockies got no production whatsoever out of their catcher position in 2020, but that’s become par for the course as the club has steadfastly remained committed to light-hitting Tony Wolters. He’s a non-tender candidate again, though, and a solid defender with more ability at the dish (e.g. Jason Castro) might not cost that much more than Wolters’ projected arbitration price.

First base reps could be offered to any of Ryan McMahon (if he is tendered a contract), Josh Fuentes or prospect Colton Welker, and the free-agent market should have some affordable names (e.g. Carlos Santana, Mitch Moreland, C.J. Cron, Justin Smoak). Some outfield support behind David Dahl, who struggled in 2020 before undergoing shoulder surgery, would make sense as well; a Pillar reunion or a similar pursuit doesn’t seem far-fetched.

Frankly, however, the Rockies seem as though they’d be better served to take a step back. Marquez would instantly become one of the prizes of the trade market were he made available, and Story could return some young talent as well. Other Rox arms — Freeland and Givens among them — would hold ample appeal themselves. That has not been how this franchise operates, and while it’s commendable to see a team continue to push for competitive teams year-in and year-out, the process becomes more questionable when financial limitations prevent the front office from making any meaningful changes to the current group’s composition.

Perhaps the club will try to thread the needle of a long-term talent acquisition while still fielding a hopeful contender in 2021. If Bridich is able to find an Arenado trade, for instance, the Rox could reallocate some of those dollars to short-term deals for players to fill needs.

It’s still hard to envision this group contending with the World Champion Dodgers or upstart Padres in 2021, however. The Giants also continue to make strides, while the D-backs retain their own talented core in need of a rebound. The NL West looks like an increasingly tough division, and the Rockies’ avenues to assemble a competitive unit are limited if Monfort again opts not to spend this winter.

Offseason Outlook: Chicago White Sox

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Will the White Sox move past the black eye of the Tony La Russa hiring and upgrade the team in a bid for the first back-to-back playoff appearances in franchise history?

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Yasmani Grandal, C: Three years, $54.75MM
  • Dallas Keuchel, SP: Two years, $37.5MM.  Includes $20MM club/vesting option for 2023
  • Jose Abreu, 1B: Two years, $34MM
  • Tim Anderson, SS: Two years, $17.75MM.  Includes $12.5MM club option for 2023 and $14MM club option for 2024
  • Leury Garcia, IF/OF: One year, $3.5MM
  • Eloy Jimenez, LF: Four years, $35.5MM.  Includes $16.5MM club option for 2025 and $18.5MM club option for 2026
  • Yoan Moncada, 3B: Four years, $65MM.  Includes $25MM club option for 2025
  • Luis Robert, CF: Five years, $48.5MM.  Includes $20MM club options for 2026 and ’27
  • Aaron Bummer, RP: Four years, $15MM.  Includes $7.25MM club option for 2025 and $7.5MM club option for 2026

Arbitration Eligible Players

Note on arb-eligible players: this year’s arbitration projections are more volatile than ever, given the unprecedented revenue losses felt by clubs and the shortened 2020 schedule. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, who developed our arbitration projection model, used three different methods to calculate different projection numbers. You can see the full projections and an explanation of each if you click here, but for the purposes of our Outlook series, we’ll be using Matt’s 37-percent method — extrapolating what degree of raise a player’s 2020 rate of play would have earned him in a full 162-game slate and then awarding him 37 percent of that raise.

Option Decisions

  • Exercised $3.5MM club option on IF Leury Garcia
  • Declined $12MM club option on DH Edwin Encarnacion
  • Declined $7MM club option on SP Gio Gonzalez

Free Agents

The rebuild is officially over.  The White Sox reached the playoffs this year for the first time since 2008, falling to the A’s in the three-game Wild Card series.  Eleven days later, the team fired manager Rick Renteria and longtime pitching coach Don Cooper.  When GM Rick Hahn told reporters the ideal managerial candidate would have “recent October experience with a championship organization,” the club initially seemed primed to hire A.J. Hinch or Alex Cora.

Instead, it became clear that White Sox owner Jerry Reinsdorf had his heart set on righting what he saw as a 34-year-old wrong, bringing back Tony La Russa as manager.  La Russa began his managerial career with the White Sox in 1979 and was fired in 1986, after which he achieved legendary status and Hall of Fame induction for his work at the helm of the A’s and Cardinals.  La Russa had retired from managing after his 2011 Cardinals won it all, taking on front office roles for the Diamondbacks, Red Sox, and Angels.  So much for “recent” October experience.  The White Sox didn’t interview Hinch or Cora; their second choice was former Giants and Padres skipper Bruce Bochy, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today.

ESPN’s Jeff Passan said it well regarding the hire: “He inherits a team brimming with young, dynamic talent — a team that, in many ways, represents a new epoch of baseball whose principles and priorities run antithetical to La Russa’s.”  I still felt that the talented White Sox players would be able to overcome that apparent mismatch.  But then came news of La Russa’s February DUI arrest, of which the White Sox were aware before hiring him.  La Russa already had a 2007 DUI on his record.  To this point, a Twitter campaign from some White Sox fans has not convinced La Russa to step down or Reinsdorf to move on.  Reinsdorf hasn’t commented on the matter, and the team’s statement was sparse.  The entire situation is a black eye for the team of Reinsdorf’s doing, but he doesn’t seem to care.  Perhaps one day the White Sox will run through a normal managerial hiring process.

At any rate, hiring La Russa certainly suggests the team will take further steps to improve in the short-term after an active 2019-20 offseason and successful shortened 2020 campaign.  So, what does the team need?  Right field stands out, after Nomar Mazara struggled in his 149 plate appearances.  Though he doesn’t turn 26 until April, Mazara will likely be non-tendered.  The best option in free agency is George Springer, who will likely command a contract in excess of $100MM even in a depressed market.  Even for a lineup that already skews right-handed, Springer would be a huge addition for the White Sox as a 31-year-old five-WAR type player.  And there’s hardly a concern with Springer hitting right-handed pitching, against which he has a 139 wRC+ since 2018.  But with Reinsdorf on record claiming losses “in the nine figures,” will he really go for one of the winter’s most expensive free agents?

There are more affordable options, of course, such as signing Joc Pederson to platoon with Adam Engel in right field.  Hahn could also try the trade market, which could include Joey Gallo and Wil Myers.  The Sox don’t seem to be in a position to acquire a bounceback candidate, but Gregory Polanco, Hunter Renfroe, and Dexter Fowler likely wouldn’t be hard to pry loose.  Adam Eaton is a free agent, but there’s a lot of history there and not much upside.  The White Sox could also look to get creative and acquire a player who hasn’t played much or any right field, such as Andrew Benintendi, Marcell Ozuna, Tommy Pham, Michael Brantley, Brett Gardner, Jackie Bradley Jr., Jurickson Profar, or Mark Canha.  In some cases it would result in shaky corner outfield defense, but at least they have a Gold Glove center fielder in Luis Robert.

With 2019 third overall pick Andrew Vaughn basically penciled into a first base/DH rotation with Jose Abreu, right field seems the only clear place for the White Sox to upgrade on the position player side.  Certainly the team could hold off for most of 2021 on Vaughn, who has yet to see Double-A pitching, but the team’s brass seems to think he’s close to ready after spending 2020 at the team’s alternate site.  If they were to wait with Vaughn, perhaps players like Nelson Cruz or Michael Brantley would become more viable.

What about the starting rotation?  As James Fegan of The Athletic put it, “October revealed a need for upgrades at the top, not the back end,” after the team was forced to try a bullpen game in Game 3 of the Wild Card series.  At the top end of the market sits Trevor Bauer, though he’d likely require most of the team’s available payroll space.  There’s also the question of whether Bauer would be impressed with La Russa, but the better question might be how he’d gel with new pitching coach Ethan Katz.  Katz was Lucas Giolito’s pitching coach in high school and had a hand in his turnaround in 2019.  If the White Sox are willing to spend the money and let Bauer pitch every fourth day, they’d certainly have a shot.

If the White Sox consider Bauer out of their price range, they could look at a collection of free agent starters who could slot into their hypothetical playoff rotation: James Paxton, Corey Kluber, Chris Archer, and Charlie Morton.  The first three have to prove they’re healthy, while Morton may have geographical preferences that don’t include Chicago.  A market limited on October-worthy starters may require considering lower-ceiling free agents like Masahiro Tanaka, or hitting the trade market in pursuit of players like Lance Lynn or German Marquez.  The White Sox don’t necessarily need to make a major move in the rotation, with Giolito, Dallas Keuchel, Dylan Cease, and Dane Dunning penciled in and Michael Kopech expected to rejoin the team in spring training.

Like just about any playoff hopeful, the White Sox could look to augment their bullpen.  With Colome hitting free agency, the team has several interesting young arms but lacks veteran depth.  Overall, the White Sox could have over $30MM to work with if they maintain last year’s payroll, but that’s no sure thing.

Thus far, the White Sox have done an excellent job locking up their core pieces to position themselves for sustained success.  They have four more years of control of Anderson, and at least five of Robert, Moncada, Jimenez, Vaughn, and Nick Madrigal.  On the pitching side, ace Lucas Giolito is under control through 2023 as an arbitration eligible player.  Giolito is primed for his first multi-million dollar payday in his first trip through arbitration this winter, though there’s great uncertainty as to how salaries will be affected by the 60-game season.  I have a feeling the White Sox would jump at something close to Aaron Nola’s four-year, $45MM contract.

Aside from the La Russa hire, the White Sox could hardly be in a better position heading into 2021.  The club would be well-served to bring in a few more impact players this winter, especially with the majority of teams expected to be conservative.

Offseason Outlook: Cincinnati Reds

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After the Reds earned their first playoff berth since 2013, their offseason began with the surprise resignation of president of baseball operations Dick Williams. General manager Nick Krall, who previously worked under Williams, is now at the helm. Krall already has a lot on his plate with the possible departure of right-handed ace Trevor Bauer, who’s now the preeminent free agent on the market after a Cy Young-winning season.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration-Eligible Players

Note on arb-eligible players: this year’s arbitration projections are more volatile than ever, given the unprecedented revenue losses felt by clubs and the shortened 2020 schedule. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, who developed our arbitration projection model, used three different methods to calculate different projection numbers. You can see the full projections and an explanation of each if you click here, but for the purposes of our Outlook series, we’ll be using Matt’s 37-percent method — extrapolating what degree of raise a player’s 2020 rate of play would have earned him in a full 162-game slate and then awarding him 37 percent of that raise.

Free Agents

It didn’t look as if the Reds-Bauer union was going to work out after they acquired him from the Indians leading up to the 2019 trade deadline. Bauer had an immense amount of difficulty keeping runs off the board in the wake of the deal, evidenced by the bloated 6.39 ERA he put up in his 56 1/3-inning Reds debut.

While Bauer didn’t make an ideal first impression on the Reds, there was a 180-degree turnaround in 2020, in which the 29-year-old recorded a 1.73 ERA/2.88 FIP with 12.33 K/9 and 2.1 BB/9 over 73 frames. His pitching was instrumental in getting the Reds back to the playoffs, but the problem is that excellence could lead him out of Cincinnati. Williams said before he stepped down that the team would do all it could to keep Bauer, but he also stated that he’s unsure how the Reds’ payroll will shape up in 2021 in as a result of the pandemic. Krall said Friday the team and Bauer haven’t had “substantial” contract talks.

If it’s any consolation for the Reds, they’ll at least get some compensation if Bauer does leave. They made the no-brainer decision to issue him an $18.9MM qualifying offer, which he summarily rejected.

The good news for the Reds is that a rotation devoid of Bauer and fellow free agent Anthony DeSclafani would not be a lost cause. Luis Castillo, Sonny Gray and Tyler Mahle should once again comprise 60 percent of the group. Wade Miley had a rough, injury-shortened season, but he’s under contract for another year and should get a chance to rebound. It’s unclear how the Reds will fill the other spot in their rotation, though reliever Michael Lorenzen seems poised to get the opportunity to win the job. Tejay Antone could join Lorenzen in competing. Otherwise, free agency is pretty stacked with established arms (Masahiro Tanaka, Jake Odorizzi, Corey Kluber, James Paxton and Adam Wainwright are some of them). The trade market should be led by the Rangers’ Lance Lynn and the Pirates’ Joe Musgrove.

Bauer’s situation aside, the main question the Reds have to answer this offseason may be at shortstop. Indeed, Krall admitted Friday that the position “would be something you’d like to address.”

Freddy Galvis was a useful piece for the club from 2019-20, but he’s now a free agent. That leaves Jose Garcia, 22, as the Reds’ No. 1 at the position. Garcia is a promising prospect, but he never played above High-A before this year. It showed during a major league debut in which Garcia hit a woeful .194/.206/.194 line with no home runs and a wRC+ of 3 across 68 plate appearances. He seems to need more seasoning below the majors before the Reds hand him the reins. That could point the team to free agency, where ex-Red Didi Gregorius, Marcus Semien, Andrelton Simmons lead the way. The KBO’s Ha-Seong Kim should soon join them. The Indians’ Francisco Lindor and the Rockies’ Trevor Story could be available via trade, but it’ll be a challenge for the Reds to win a sweepstakes for either of those stars.

Besides shortstop, the Reds’ offense probably won’t face many changes over the winter. As seen above, their position player corps features a handful of guaranteed contracts that they won’t be willing or able to jettison. First baseman Joey Votto, second baseman Mike Moustakas, third baseman Eugenio Suarez and right fielder Nick Castellanos are etched in stone. The Reds also seem likely to continue with Tucker Barnhart at catcher, though they could non-tender backup Curt Casali and give his role to Tyler Stephenson. Meanwhile, they’ll have to find playing time in the outfield for the mix of Castellanos, Shogo Akiyama, Jesse Winker, Nick Senzel (unless they use him as a trade chip), Aristides Aquino and Brian Goodwin. Granted, the Reds are probably going to non-tender Goodwin.

The Reds’ bullpen should also return largely the same bunch in 2021. As mentioned before, there’s a question whether Lorenzen or Antone will earn a rotation spot instead of a bullpen job. That aside, the club’s not in danger of losing anyone of great importance. Raisel Iglesias, Amir Garrett, Lucas Sims and Archie Bradley will all be back. Lorenzen, Antone or both will rejoin that group. That’s a nice core, but the Reds could still add at least one veteran free agent to supplement it.  Liam Hendriks, Trevor May, Brad Hand, Blake Treinen and Trevor Rosenthal are the leading relievers looking for work. If they’re out of the Reds’ price range, the likes of Mark Melancon, Jake McGee, Brandon Kintzler and Shane Greene are a few of many who could make for sensible targets.

2020 didn’t include a postseason victory for the Reds, whom the Braves swept in the wild-card round, and it’s now probable that Cincy will see the head of its starting staff depart. Even without Bauer, though, this is still a respectable-looking team and one that could make a return to the playoffs next year if Krall finds a way to address the few glaring holes on the roster.

Offseason Outlook: New York Yankees

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The Yankees clinched another postseason berth in 2020 before falling short in the playoffs once again. They’re now facing offseason questions in their middle infield, at catcher and in their pitching staff. Those issues could be difficult to properly address if the club decides to tamp down its payroll, which seems likely.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration-Eligible Players

Note on arb-eligible players: this year’s arbitration projections are more volatile than ever, given the unprecedented revenue losses felt by clubs and the shortened 2020 schedule. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, who developed our arbitration projection model, used three different methods to calculate different projection numbers. You can see the full projections and an explanation of each if you click here, but for the purposes of our Outlook series, we’ll be using Matt’s 37-percent method — extrapolating what degree of raise a player’s 2020 rate of play would have earned him in a full 162-game slate and then awarding him 37 percent of that raise.

Option Decisions

Free Agents

As Joel Sherman of the New York Post detailed last month, it could be a relatively low-spending offseason for the Yankees if their goal is to get under the $210MM luxury-tax line in 2021. They may only add around $30MM to a payroll that is already in the $170MM range with guaranteed deals, arbitration raises and rookie contracts. That’s problematic for a team with a pair of high-end free agents and needs to address.

The biggest possible departure for the Yankees would be DJ LeMahieu, who has been their premier player since they signed him to a two-year, $24MM contract before 2019. The move couldn’t have worked out better for the Yankees, with whom LeMahieu went from solid contributor to superstar. The 32-year-old is coming off a season in which he won a batting title, led the AL in wRC+ and finished third in MVP voting. Great timing for LeMahieu during a contract year, but it could price him out of the Yankees’ range.

The Yankees did issue LeMahieu an $18.9MM qualifying offer at the beginning of the offseason, but he predictably rejected it. According to Sherman, they might be reluctant to do much better than a three-year, $48MM offer on a long-term pact, and it’s hard to believe he’d accept that. For what it’s worth, MLBTR predicts a four-year, $68MM accord, but it’s possible he’ll do even better than that.

If LeMahieu does exit, where would that leave the Yankees? It’s hard to imagine them turning the reins over to the light-hitting Tyler Wade. Fortunately for the Yankees, they do have some flexibility in their middle infield because of the versatility of shortstop Gleyber Torres, who has also played extensively at second base.

Should the team decide to leave Torres at short, it could pursue any number of Band-Aid free agents at the keystone, including Kolten Wong, Tommy La Stella, Jurickson Profar and Jonathan Schoop. Those aren’t especially exciting options on paper, though remember that LeMahieu didn’t look like the most thrilling addition when the Yankees brought him into the fold. Perhaps they’d be able to strike gold yet again on a somewhat understated pickup.

Moving Torres back to second would also present some possibilities for the Yankees, as free agency features a few accomplished vets at short (old friend Didi Gregorius, Marcus Semien, Andrelton Simmons). Korea’s Ha-Seong Kim is going to be posted, so he could also pique the Yankees’ interest. And you can’t ignore the trade front, where the Indians’ Francisco Lindor is likely to wind up on the move. It’s also not unreasonable to think the Rockies could listen to offers for Trevor Story.

While middle infield is the main concern in the Yankees’ position player group right now, catcher isn’t too far behind. Gary Sanchez won their starting job with an all-world performance in 2016 and has held it down since. There have been defensive miscues and up-and-down offense since then, though, and now the Yankees may elect to pull the plug on the Sanchez era. They’re reportedly willing to listen to offers for Sanchez, whom they could non-tender if they can’t find a trade partner. They’ve also shown interest in free-agent catcher Yadier Molina, which doesn’t seem to bode well for Sanchez. Molina would figure to start ahead of Kyle Higashioka.

Molina’s aging, and his offense has declined of late, yet he’s still one of the top free agents at his position. J.T. Realmuto is No. 1 with a bullet, but whether the Yankees would dole out a $100MM-plus contract for him in their current situation looks iffy. They might not even be willing to go into the two- to three-year range for James McCann, the second-best backstop out there.

Meanwhile, the rest of the Yankees’ lineup looks pretty well set. Torres will be back to play somewhere. First baseman Luke Voit has developed into a star slugger. Gio Urshela remained a highly productive starting third baseman in 2020. His presence could push out Miguel Andujar if the Yankees find an enticing enough trade offer. Right fielder Aaron Judge and designated hitter Giancarlo Stanton aren’t going anywhere, though the team will need healthier seasons from the hulking duo next year. Clint Frazier finally broke out in 2020 and now looks like the Yankees’ answer in left field, while Aaron Hicks has center locked up.

There’s a question as to whether the club will bring back Yankees institution Brett Gardner as a reserve outfielder. New York bought out the 13-year veteran and saved $7.5MM in the process, but it could re-sign him for a lesser salary. If not, the Yankees might be content to plug in Mike Tauchman as their primary backup.

Whether or not LeMahieu, Sanchez and Gardner return next year, the Yankees should still feature a strong offense. Their rotation may be another story, however. Gerrit Cole delivered in the first season of a record nine-year, $324MM contract, though the Yankees don’t really have any sure things after him.

Of returning Yankees starters, Luis Severino has been an ace when healthy enough to pitch. The hope is he’ll get back to form next year, but he missed almost all of the previous two seasons because of serious arm injuries. Severino might not even be ready for Opening Day after undergoing Tommy John surgery in February. Domingo German sat out 2020 after a domestic violence suspension, though it appears the Yankees will pencil him in for some role next season. Jordan Montgomery is also an in-house front-runner for a starting job, but he had his struggles in 2020 after coming back from a TJ procedure. Otherwise, the Yankees have some younger hurlers they could turn to in Deivi Garcia, Michael King and Clarke Schmidt.

For now, the Yankees’ starting depth looks as if it’s going to take a hit in free agency. Career-long Yankee Masahiro Tanaka is on the open market, as are JA Happ and James Paxton. Tanaka, who has long been effective in New York, seems the most likely of the three to re-sign. He’s not going to come at an exorbitant cost – certainly nothing like the seven-year, $155MM contract the Yankees originally gave him. Other free agents who should be affordably priced include Jake Odorizzi, Charlie Morton, Corey Kluber, ex-Yankees farmhand Jose Quintana, Garrett Richards and Adam Wainwright, to name some familiar names. And the Yankees could explore trades for one of their former pitchers, the Rangers’ Lance Lynn, or the Pirates’ Joe Musgrove.

Considering the spending power the Yankees have typically shown off, perhaps you can’t rule them out for the No. 1 free agent available, NL Cy Young winner Trevor Bauer. Of course, that would require the franchise to hand out yet another massive financial guarantee. Notably, Bauer and Cole – who were teammates at UCLA – have not gotten along in the past. Bauer did, however, tell reporters this week that there is no feud with Cole (via Brendan Kuty of NJ Advance Media).

“I have nothing wrong with Gerrit,” Bauer said. “We had our differences in college and that was nine or 10 years ago at this point. I’m a different person now than I was then. I’m sure the same is true for him.”

Regardless of whether it’s Bauer or someone else, it seems probable the Yankees will sign or trade for at least one starter this winter. General manager Brian Cashman could also make an addition(s) to their bullpen, which wasn’t the lights-out unit the Yankees expected. They already retained Zack Britton, so he’ll be a key late-game piece again. Closer Aroldis Chapman isn’t leaving, while Chad Green, Jonathan Loaisiga and Luis Cessa should also be back. The Yankees would probably like to move on from the last year and $9MM of Adam Ottavino’s contract after a rough 2020, but it would be difficult to find a trade partner right now. If no team wanted Brad Hand for $10MM, why would anyone take on Ottavino at $9MM?

Hand is now looking for a job – as are several other well-known relievers – but that depends on if the Yankees are interested in throwing money around on bullpen upgrades. They could at least take a fairly low-priced gamble on someone like Greg Holland, Kirby Yates, Jake McGee, Joakim Soria or ex-Yankees Mark Melancon and Shane Greene. The top of the market includes Hand, Liam Hendriks, Blake Treinen, Trevor May and Trevor Rosenthal. Let’s not forget that the Yankees pursued superb Brewers reliever Josh Hader last winter. Maybe they’ll circle back there this offseason, though Hader would cost a significant amount in a trade package.

It was no surprise that the Yankees reeled in Cole, last year’s best free agent, an offseason ago. However, because of the economic issues the league is currently facing, this looks as if it will be a much less predictable offseason for the Yankees and just about every other team. If the Yankees actually are going to slash payroll, though, it could be a winter of discontent for their fans.

Offseason Outlook: Houston Astros

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Even though they finished under .500 for the first time since 2014, the Astros still found a way to overcome key injuries and make it to their fourth consecutive ALCS this year. However this offseason pans out, the Astros could still have enough talent on hand to push for another playoff berth in 2021. For now, though, general manager James Click & Co. are at risk of losing two high-end hitters in free agency.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration-Eligible Players

Note on arb-eligible players: this year’s arbitration projections are more volatile than ever, given the unprecedented revenue losses felt by clubs and the shortened 2020 schedule. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, who developed our arbitration projection model, used three different methods to calculate different projection numbers. You can see the full projections and an explanation of each if you click here, but for the purposes of our Outlook series, we’ll be using Matt’s 37-percent method — extrapolating what degree of raise a player’s 2020 rate of play would have earned him in a full 162-game slate and then awarding him 37 percent of that raise.

Free Agents

Outfielder George Springer has been a premier hitter and a face of the Houston franchise going back to his first year in 2014, though his Astros tenure may be on the verge of ending. After rejecting the Astros’ $18.9MM qualifying offer, the 31-year-old is now unquestionably one of the few elite players on the open market, where MLBTR predicts he’ll rake in a five-year, $125MM payday. Of course, that’s assuming teams will be willing to spend that type of money this offseason after the pandemic took its toll on the league’s finances over the past several months.

The Astros, for their part, have doled out some huge contracts in recent years (the club also took on Zack Greinke’s money in a trade). They also threw around a bit of cash this fall when they made the somewhat eyebrow-raising move to re-sign first baseman Yuli Gurriel to a one-year, $7MM contract despite an uninspiring campaign. However, it remains to be seen whether all of the guaranteed deals on the payroll will have a negative effect on their chances of re-signing Springer, as owner Jim Crane may be reluctant to go to $100MM-plus lengths for him. Furthermore, as Cody Poage of The Crawfish Boxes recently explained in a rundown of the Astros’ payroll, they only have about $37.5MM to spend if they want to stay under the $210MM luxury-tax threshold in 2021. That would make it a challenge to combine re-upping Springer with adequately addressing their other needs.

Of course, along with Springer, the Astros may wave goodbye to another major offensive piece in outfielder/designated hitter Michael Brantley. The Astros didn’t issue him a QO, but they have had talks on a new deal with Brantley, whom they signed to a two-year, $32MM pact a couple offseasons ago. Brantley should get another reasonable deal in that range this time, though Houston would probably have to trust the 33-year-old as an everyday outfield option if it’s going to bring him back. Brantley spent the majority of the season at DH because knee problems wiped out Yordan Alvarez’s 2020, but Alvarez figures to regain control of that spot next year.

With Josh Reddick also on the open market, the only sure bet for the Astros’ outfield is big-hitting corner option Kyle Tucker. The cupboard is close to bare otherwise. Myles Straw endured a miserable year at the plate, so it would be hard to pencil him in as Springer’s replacement in center. And while Chas McCormick is a farmhand of some note, the 25-year-old is hardly a can’t-miss prospect, and he has no big league track record at all.  So, as is the case with Straw, it’s difficult to envision the Astros handing McCormick a starting job and hoping he can somehow help fill the Springer/Brantley void.

Considering their outfield issues, the Astros are going to have to use free agency and/or the trade market if they lose Springer, Brantley, Reddick or all three. Those players aside, there probably isn’t a better fit in free agency than longtime Red Sox center fielder Jackie Bradley Jr. Granted, there’s a significant drop-off from Springer to Bradley, but JBJ is still the second-best center fielder available and someone who should be in the Astros’ price range (MLBTR predicts Houston will ink him to a two-year, $16MM).

Joc Pederson and Jurickson Profar are the next highest-ranked outfielders in free agency, though neither would address the Astros’ hole in center. In Pederson’s case, there may still be bad blood stemming from the Dodgers-Astros World Series in 2017, so whether Houston would even have a chance at signing him is unknown. Even someone like Brett Gardner could be difficult to get in the wake of the Yankees-Astros 2017 ALCS and the animosity directed at the team’s sign-stealing scandal.

Beyond those names, there isn’t much to get excited about on the open market. But if Houston spends little in the outfield and settles for the next tier or two, the team will be looking at the likes of ex-Astros Robbie Grossman and Jake Marisnick, Kevin Pillar, Adam Eaton and Michael A. Taylor. Yasiel Puig could be a wild card to keep an eye on after missing all of 2020. The Astros-Dodgers rivalry could be in play with Puig, but he may be desperate enough to sign with anyone who shows interest in him.

Outfield troubles aside, most of the Astros’ position player group looks to be in place for 2021. Gurriel, Alvarez, second baseman Jose Altuve, shortstop Carlos Correa (if the Astros don’t unexpectedly trade him one year before free agency) and third baseman Alex Bregman are still there. Martin Maldonado is the favorite to return as their catcher, but if the Astros are willing to spend for an upgrade, J.T. Realmuto and to a much lesser extent James McCann may be on the table (it seems more likely the team would splurge on Springer than Realmuto, though). Otherwise, the Astros could at least look for an upgrade over reserve Garrett Stubbs. Yadier Molina, Mike Zunino, Tyler Flowers, Alex Avila, Wilson Ramos and former Astro Jason Castro are among the top backup/timeshare types looking for work.

On the pitching side, the Astros’ rotation somehow held its own in 2020 despite almost no contributions from reigning Cy Young winner Justin Verlander, who underwent Tommy John surgery in October. The timing of that procedure means Verlander also won’t help the team in 2021. However, they do still appear to have their one through five locked up with Greinke, Framber Valdez, Lance McCullers Jr., Cristian Javier and Jose Urquidy. The Astros could at least pursue some depth signings in case of injury and/or underperformance, but they don’t look like a team that has to fret over its starting staff or pour substantial resources into it this offseason.

The bullpen, on the other hand, could be a different story with Roberto Osuna, Brad Peacock and Chris Devenski on the market. The good news for the Astros is that they were able to adjust to life without them in 2020. Osuna missed almost the whole season with elbow problems, leading the Astros to cut the potential Tommy John patient. Likewise, Peacock and Devenski barely factored in for the club.

Even with the Osuna-Peacock-Devenski departures, the Astros still do have at least a handful of enviable relief arms in Ryan Pressly, Andre Scrubb, Enoli Paredes and Blake Taylor (though Scrubb and Taylor did struggle with walks in 2020). Joe Smith could reenter the fold after sitting out all of 2020, while Austin Pruitt, Brooks Raley, Cionel Perez and Josh James are also among those who could vie for roles.

Although the above names may well comprise most of Houston’s bullpen next year, it won’t be a surprise if the team searches for a reliever(s) who’s more of a sure thing. Luckily for the Astros, free agency is overflowing with veteran relievers who figure to come at fair prices. Even the heads of the class (Liam Hendriks, Brad Hand, Trevor Rosenthal, Blake Treinen and Trevor May) shouldn’t be overly expensive, and there are other credible hurlers in the lower tiers with Alex Colome, Kirby Yates, Jake McGee, Shane Greene, former Astro Mark Melancon and Greg Holland just some of many seeking MLB employment.

While it would behoove the Astros to bring in any relievers along those lines, it’s clear that the outfield is the biggest question Click will have to answer over the next few months. If Click is able to find two good complements to Tucker, it would go a long way in assuring the Astros remain in contention a year from now.

Offseason Outlook: Boston Red Sox

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With a familiar face back in the manager’s chair, the Red Sox are looking to rebound from a disastrous last-place finish in the AL East.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Chris Sale, SP: $115MM through 2024 ($20MM club/vesting option for 2025; Sale can opt out of contract after the 2022 season)
  • Xander Bogaerts, SS: $100MM through 2025 (plus $20MM club/vesting option for 2026)
  • J.D. Martinez, OF/DH: $38.75MM through 2022 (could become mutual options if Martinez suffers a Lisfranc-related injury to his right foot)
  • Nathan Eovaldi, SP: $34MM through 2022
  • Dustin Pedroia, 2B: $12MM through 2021
  • Andrew Benintendi, OF: $6.6MM through 2021
  • Christian Vazquez, C: $6.5MM through 2021 (includes $250K buyout of $7MM club option for 2022)

Other Obligations

  • $32MM to the Dodgers through the 2022 season to cover a portion of David Price’s salary

Arbitration-Eligible Players

Note on arb-eligible players: this year’s arbitration projections are more volatile than ever, given the unprecedented revenue losses felt by clubs and the shortened 2020 schedule. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, who developed our arbitration projection model, used three different methods to calculate different projection numbers. You can see the full projections and an explanation of each if you click here, but for the purposes of our Outlook series, we’ll be using Matt’s 37-percent method — extrapolating what degree of raise a player’s 2020 rate of play would have earned him in a full 162-game slate and then awarding him 37 percent of that raise.

Option Decisions

Free Agents

Despite months of speculation that Alex Cora would eventually return to the Red Sox, the team at least created the perception of due diligence in searching for a new manager, with at least eight other candidates considered for the position.  Of course, Cora now returns to the job with the baggage of his role in the Astros’ sign-stealing scandal, which led to his January firing in Boston and his subsequent league-issued suspension for the 2020 season.

Regardless of whether Cora’s return was always in the cards, the end result is the same — the manager of Boston’s 2018 World Series team has now been tasked with getting the Sox back on track.  With the obvious caveat of the 60-game schedule, Boston’s .400 winning percentage (24-36) was the lowest since the club’s .383 mark (62-100) in 1965, representing a drastic fall for a team just two years removed from a championship.

It was expected that 2020 would be a transition year for the Red Sox, considering last February’s trade of Mookie Betts and David Price to the Dodgers.  That blockbuster deal ensured that the Sox would duck under the Competitive Balance Tax threshold in 2020, thus avoiding the escalating tax bill that came with three consecutive years of overages, and also ensuring that the Red Sox would pay only the “first-timer” tax rate if they were to exceed the $210MM threshold in 2021.

When the Sox last reset their luxury tax bill in 2017, they responded by exceeding the threshold again in 2018, largely due to signing J.D. Martinez as the final piece of their World Series puzzle.  Even before the pandemic sliced into every team’s revenues, however, it didn’t seem likely that chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom was going to immediately launch a similar CBT-busting spending spree this winter.  If Boston’s plan going forward is to spend big but not to excess, the front office will have plenty of room to operate, as the Red Sox have a little under $161MM (well shy of $210MM) on the books for 2021.

“I don’t like ruling us out on anybody,” Bloom recently said in regards to shopping at the very top of the free agent market.  Boston’s biggest needs also overlap with some of the winter’s biggest available names.  George Springer would more than replace Jackie Bradley Jr. in center field.  DJ LeMahieu would turn second base from a weak spot to a strength.  Trevor Bauer would instantly upgrade a woeful rotation.  It remains to be seen how ardently the Sox will pursue any of this trio, or if they’ll instead look to spread their money around for less-expensive free agents or higher-priced players who may be available in trades.

Let’s begin with the pitching staff that was ravaged by injuries in 2020.  Chris Sale underwent Tommy John surgery last March and will miss at least a couple of months at the start of the season.  Eduardo Rodriguez thankfully seems to be on pace to return after missing all of last season due to a COVID-19 diagnosis that led to myocarditis, but it’s hard to call the southpaw anything other than a question mark until he is back on the mound.  With Rodriguez hopefully ready for Opening Day, he and Nathan Eovaldi will headline a rotation mix that currently looks to include Nick Pivetta, Tanner Houck, Chris Mazza, or Kyle Hart.

Needless to say, there’s plenty of room for at least one and probably two proven starters to be added.  We’ve already seen some noteworthy early movement within the pitching market, as Marcus Stroman and Kevin Gausman accepted qualifying offers from the Mets and Giants, respectively, and Robbie Ray re-signed with the Blue Jays.  Beyond those names who have already left the board, a case could be made for the Red Sox to pursue just about any free agent arm.

Veterans Jake Odorizzi, Jose Quintana or Masahiro Tanaka could bring some stability, as odd as it would be to see Tanaka pitching on the other side of the Yankees/Red Sox rivalry.   Corey Kluber or James Paxton could be had at relative bargain prices given their injury-marred 2020 seasons, or Taijuan Walker or Garrett Richards could be pursued after their bounce-back campaigns.  If the Red Sox want to add a veteran to just eat some innings, they could turn to old friends Jon Lester, Rick Porcello, or Martin Perez.  Boston declined its $6.85MM club option on Perez, perhaps a bit of a surprise considering their need for pitching, but Perez posted some pretty middling numbers in 2020.

Bauer gets his own section, as the Red Sox’ hiring of Bloom likely pushes the club toward a more analytical approach that the right-hander desires.  With so much uncertainty in the rotation, one could even argue the Sox should be willing to let Bauer try pitching every fourth day — another item on his free-agent wish list.  Still, this seems like a long shot.  Bauer is more likely to sign with a team that seems closer to winning in 2021, and given his past criticism of the Astros, he might not be all that eager to play under Cora.

The bullpen was also a big problem area and might yet face an overhaul.  With teams expected to be more aggressive than ever in non-tendering arbitration-eligible players, it wouldn’t be a complete shock if any of Barnes, Brasier, Weber, or Brice were non-tendered.  It’s indicative of the state of the 2020 offseason that even generally solid relievers like Barnes or Brasier are lacking in job security.

If Bloom’s time with the Rays tells us anything about the approach he’ll take with the relief market in Boston, he’ll eschew going after bigger names like Liam Hendriks and the lucrative multi-year deals required to land top-of-the-market relievers.  The market should have plenty of short-term options available — former Rays Kirby Yates, Sergio Romo, and Brad Boxberger among them, not that Bloom will necessarily be predisposed to look at former Tampa Bay arms.  The Red Sox could also explore a reunion with Collin McHugh, who signed with the club last March but didn’t pitch after some lingering elbow problems led McHugh to opt out of the season.

It can’t be overstated just how much Boston’s pitching sunk their season, as the Red Sox lineup was a lot more solid than one would expect for a last-place team.  That was despite poor seasons from Martinez and Andrew Benintendi, and the Sox are counting on both to hit closer to their usual form next year.

Martinez will again be the regular DH while Benintendi will have a starting outfield job, though the position is to be determined.  With Bradley possibly leaving, either Benintendi or Alex Verdugo could be tabbed to take over in center field, or the Sox could take a more fluid approach to their lineup and have the two alternate between center field and a corner spot based on matchups.  With Michael Chavis, Yairo Munoz, and Martinez all able to chip in for corner outfield duty in a pinch and prospect Jarren Duran projected to make his MLB debut at some point in 2021, the Sox have some flexibility in whatever they decide to do with their outfield.

That decision could simply be to re-sign Bradley.  The Sox have already discussed a new contract for the former Gold Glover, though they’ll have competition since Bradley coupled his strong defense with an above-average offensive year in 2020.

Elsewhere around the diamond, shortstop (Xander Bogaerts), catcher (Christian Vazquez), third base (Rafael Devers), and first base (impressive rookie Bobby Dalbec) have most of the positions spoken for, but there has been some speculation that Devers’ defensive struggles could lead to a position swap with Dalbec.  Since the Red Sox are a bit thin on left-handed bats, nobody would be surprised if Mitch Moreland was brought back into the fold in his old part-time first base role.  Munoz was used exclusively as an outfielder last year but has infield experience, so he’ll be competing for bench/utility infield duty with Christian Arroyo, Tzu-Wei Lin, prospect C.J. Chatham, or maybe a new face or two signed to a minor league contract.

That leaves second base as the glaring weak link.  The Red Sox liked what they saw in Arroyo last year and it seems too early to give up on Chavis, so the backup plan could be to use these two and Munoz at the position and see what develops.  However, second base is also the most obvious spot for an external solution, especially since some solid options exist in free agency.  Beyond LeMahieu as the biggest get, Tommy La Stella, Cesar Hernandez, Kolten Wong, and Korean star Ha-Seong Kim are available.  Since star prospect Jeter Downs (whose potential debut in 2021 shouldn’t be ruled out) might eventually end up as the second baseman of the future, Boston would probably prefer to seek out shorter-term rather than longer-term contracts for any second baseman they might pursue.

If Bloom’s first season running the front office was marked by cost-cutting and roster churn, this offseason might be our first chance to see how plans to run the Red Sox under more “normal” circumstances — as normal as can be, of course, considering the pandemic’s influence and all of the uncertainty surrounding the 2021 season.  Don’t count on an all-in push, but if 2020 was all of the rebuilding and step backwards that ownership was willing to take, the Sox could be one of the winter’s more aggressive teams.

Offseason Outlook: Oakland Athletics

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After earning a third straight playoff berth, the Athletics are in for an offseason of change. Longtime front office head Billy Beane might be on his way out after two-plus decades of success, while the roster could lose a handful of key free agents.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration-Eligible Players

This year’s arbitration projections are more volatile than ever, given the unprecedented revenue losses felt by clubs and the shortened 2020 schedule. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, who developed our arbitration projection model, used three different methods to calculate different projection numbers. You can see the full projections and an explanation of each if you click here, but for the purposes of our Outlook series, we’ll be using Matt’s 37-percent method — extrapolating what degree of raise a player’s 2020 rate of play would have earned him in a full 162-game slate and then awarding him 37 percent of that raise.

Free Agents

The A’s have never been known as a high-spending team, but this offseason could be especially difficult in the wake of a pandemic-shortened year. The timing is terrible for an Oakland club that’s loaded with noteworthy free agents, including in its middle infield. Marcus Semien has been the A’s primary shortstop since 2015, while they acquired second baseman Tommy La Stella from the division-rival Angels before the Aug. 31 trade deadline. La Stella made a wonderful impression on the organization during his short time there, but whether the team will make a serious effort to re-sign him is unknown.

With Semien and La Stella potentially on the way out, there’s no greater need for the A’s than in their middle infield. They already opted against giving Semien a one-year, $18.9MM qualifying offer off a somewhat disappointing season, leaving him unfettered heading into free agency. The A’s have made it clear that they hope to retain Semien, but it’s hard to imagine them outbidding the rest of the field. If Semien exits, where would that leave Oakland? The club could plug in Chad Pinder, but he has minimal major league experience at shortstop, and it isn’t likely to spend enough to sign Didi Gregorius or Andrelton Simmons in free agency. Similarly, a trade for Francisco Lindor or Trevor Story looks improbable. They might be a suitor for Korea’s Ha-Seong Kim, a 24-year-old who’s a candidate for a reasonably priced contract over the long haul. Otherwise, the A’s may be looking at someone like Freddy Galvis, who would only be a Band-Aid at the position.

The A’s love La Stella at the keystone. Again, though, are they going to spend to sign him? La Stella shouldn’t cost that much (something in the two-year, $14MM range sounds realistic). But if the A’s don’t retain La Stella, they’ll have some other options in free agency, including Galvis, Kolten Wong, Jonathan Schoop, Jason Kipnis, Cesar Hernandez and Marwin Gonzalez. That isn’t the most exciting bunch, but most or all of them should be within the A’s price range, and at least some look like passable starters. Of course, the A’s do have Tony Kemp, Vimael Machin and Sheldon Neuse in the fold if they decide to stick with options who are already under team control.

Aside from potentially the middle infield, the A’s don’t seem as if they’ll be all that busy on the position player front this offseason. The Matts (third baseman Chapman and first baseman Olson) have their spots locked up, as do catcher Sean Murphy and designated hitter Khris Davis. The outfield could lose Robbie Grossman to free agency, but Ramon Laureano, Mark Canha, Stephen Piscotty and Seth Brown are still in place.

Turning to the pitching side, Oakland is going to have to make moves, as it may see a few veteran hurlers depart. The rotation could say goodbye to free agents Mike Fiers and Mike Minor, though four-fifths of it does look set with Chris Bassitt, Sean Manaea, Jesus Luzardo and Frankie Montas staying in the mix. That still leaves one open spot, which could go to prized prospect A.J. Puk if he battles back from a couple years of arm problems (including left shoulder surgery in September). Otherwise, Daulton Jefferies and James Kaprielian may be the A’s most realistic picks from within the organization.

Fortunately for Oakland, if it decides to search for a starter from outside, it will have several affordable choices. Free agency is loaded with veterans who should sign short-term deals, including Fiers, Minor, Cole Hamels, Mike Leake, and ex-Athletics Rich Hill, Jon Lester and Brett Anderson. It’s a long list that extends well beyond those names. On the trade front, Lance Lynn (Rangers) and Joe Musgrove (Pirates) are among possibilities the A’s could fit in from a financial standpoint.

While most spots in the A’s rotation are spoken for, the bullpen is facing a great deal of uncertainty at the outset of the offseason. Closer Liam Hendriks was one of the premier relievers in the league from 2019-20, but he’s a free agent. Oakland didn’t issue him a qualifying offer, so he figures to walk away without the team getting any compensation. Yusmeiro Petit, Joakim Soria and T.J. McFarland are alongside Hendriks on the open market. That quartet gave Oakland 90 innings in 2020, and the only member who recorded below-average numbers was McFarland. It’s going to be tough to replace that group, though an A’s bullpen that was elite this past season still has some strong holdovers in Jake Diekman, J.B. Wendelken, Lou Trivino, Jordan Weems and Burch Smith (if Smith recovers from a flexor strain). It’s also not out of the realm of possibility they’ll re-sign any of Petit, Soria or McFarland, who aren’t going to command big deals on the open market, or add at least one of the many available relievers in free agency. Even Puk could slide into a prominent bullpen role next year if he’s healthy and doesn’t secure a rotation spot.

This isn’t going to be the most thrilling offseason for the A’s, whose front office and roster could combine to lose a few important figures. The A’s have consistently been in the hunt in recent years despite their small budget, though, and there is still quite a bit of talent on hand for the reigning AL West champions. However, Beane (if he doesn’t go elsewhere) and general manager David Forst may have to pull off some shrewd moves in the coming months to keep Oakland at the head of its division in 2021.

Offseason Outlook: San Francisco Giants

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A potentially intriguing offseason awaits the Giants, who are positioned to be one of the winter’s more aggressive teams depending on how they approach their long-term spending.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Evan Longoria, 3B: $43MM through 2022 (includes $5MM buyout of $13MM club option for 2023)
  • Johnny Cueto, SP: $27MM through 2021 (includes $5MM buyout of $22MM club option for 2022)
  • Buster Posey, C: $24.4MM through 2021 (includes $3MM buyout of $22MM club option for 2022)
  • Brandon Belt, 1B: $16MM through 2021
  • Brandon Crawford, SS: $16MM through 2021
  • Wilmer Flores, INF: $3.25MM through 2021 (includes $250K buyout of $3.5MM club option for 2022)

Arbitration-Eligible Players

Note on arb-eligible players: this year’s arbitration projections are more volatile than ever, given the unprecedented revenue losses felt by clubs and the shortened 2020 schedule. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, who developed our arbitration projection model, used three different methods to calculate different projection numbers. You can see the full projections and an explanation of each if you click here, but for the purposes of our Outlook series, we’ll be using Matt’s 37-percent method — extrapolating what degree of raise a player’s 2020 rate of play would have earned him in a full 162-game slate and then awarding him 37 percent of that raise.

Option Decisions

  • None

Free Agents

President of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi spent his first two seasons trying to work around the Giants’ long list of guaranteed contracts, but the light can be seen at the end of this financial tunnel.  Evan Longoria is the only player on the books beyond the 2021 season, providing the Giants with quite a bit of room to maneuver going forward and giving them an advantage in an offseason where most teams will limit their spending.

The question, of course, is whether Zaidi will pursue bigger-scale moves this winter or next.  Other than simply acknowledging how payroll “flexibility….will certainly be helpful to us in the current marketplace,” Zaidi hasn’t made any bold statements about his offseason plans, as one might expect.  The Giants suffered revenue losses themselves, and a full-bore splurge of major signings and trades for expensive players might not yet be feasible for the team, nor does such a tactic seem to fit Zaidi’s M.O. for roster construction.

There’s also the matter of the big contracts still on the roster for the coming season, but these deals aren’t quite as onerous as they seemed even a year ago.  Brandon Crawford rebounded nicely from a mediocre 2019 season.  Brandon Belt was quietly one of the better hitters in baseball, ranking fifth among all MLB hitters with a 173 wRC+ (min. 170 plate appearances).  Even Longoria still provided his customary strong third base defense despite a below-average offensive year, though his Statcast metrics indicate that Longoria may have been one of the league’s unluckier hitters.

Beyond these veteran contributions, San Francisco also benefited from continued brilliance from the more unheralded members of its roster.  Maybe Zaidi doesn’t need to spend big in free agency if his front office’s continual flurry of seemingly low-level roster moves keeps finding the likes of MVP candidate Mike Yastrzemski, Donovan Solano, Alex Dickerson, or Darin Ruf.

The result is a team that suddenly looks pretty set in terms of position players, prompting Zaidi to suggest he’ll focus primarily on “complementary” position players.  Dickerson, Mauricio Dubon, and Yastrzemski will patrol the outfield with Ruf and Austin Slater as the first choices for platoon/bench duty.  Longoria, Crawford, Solano, and Belt hold down the regular infield slots with Wilmer Flores getting a lot of action at first or second base (or at DH, if the position exists for NL teams in 2021) and Ruf probably also in the first base mix.

While Solano, Flores, and even Dubon offer some positional versatility, needs might include a proper utility infielder who could be a feasible shortstop option if Crawford was injured.  Daniel Robertson performed pretty well in his limited time as a Giant, and though that might not be enough for San Francisco to tender him a contract, the team could explore re-signing him on a cheaper deal.  Ideally, the Giants would probably prefer to add a left-handed hitter since they’re already heavy on righty bats.

Catcher isn’t necessarily a question mark in terms of personnel, but it’s definitely the biggest unknown in terms of what the Giants can expect.  After undergoing hip surgery late in the 2018 season, Buster Posey didn’t look right for much of 2019 and then opted out of playing in 2020.  It’s anyone’s guess as to what the former NL MVP can produce as he heads into his age-34 season.

Posey projects as the starting catcher while star prospect Joey Bart is likely to start 2021 in the minor leagues to get more seasoning after struggling in his first taste of MLB competition.  Zaidi implied that the team could look to add a veteran backup for Posey while Bart gets some Triple-A time, or could turn to internal options like Chadwick Tromp or Aramis Garcia (who is returning from a hip surgery of his own).

If the Giants have plenty to work with around the diamond, the opposite is true in the starting rotation.  Johnny Cueto was inconsistent in his first full season back after Tommy John surgery.  Tyler Beede will be back after missing a season of his own due to TJ surgery, and Logan Webb and Tyler Anderson will return as middle-to-back-of-the-rotation types.

Beyond that quartet, there isn’t much depth, experienced or otherwise.  Kevin Gausman, Trevor Cahill, Drew Smyly, and Jeff Samardzija are all free agents, leaving some major holes to fill and some major innings to replace.  Smyly and Cahill were limited by injuries but pitched well when healthy, with Smyly working mostly as a traditional starter and Cahill pitching as both a starter and as a reliever.

Zaidi has already said that the Giants are making a “priority” of re-signing Gausman and Smyly, and the first step in that direction was taken when San Francisco issued Gausman a qualifying offer.  If Gausman simply accepts, the Giants will have him back on a one-year, $18.9MM contract, though if the team pursues a multi-year contract, the 2021 payroll would take less of a hit.  This could be something of a replay of Jose Abreu and the White Sox last winter, when Abreu accepted the QO but then worked out an extension with the team after the fact.

The fact that the Giants are willing to pay Gausman $18.9MM even for one season is indicative of a few things.  It speaks to the team’s need for pitching, naturally, and also to how well Gausman pitched in his first year in San Francisco.  In the larger picture, it hints that the Giants may indeed be willing and able to spend this offseason; if Gausman rejects the qualifying offer and signs elsewhere, then that theoretically leaves at least $18.9MM that the Giants will have to direct in some fashion towards the roster.

Those funds could be split up among multiple players rather than a single name.  (For example, the total price tag on Gausman, Smyly, Anderson, and Cahill last offseason didn’t even total $18.9MM.)  Whether Gausman re-signs or not, expect the Giants to extend low-cost, one-year contracts to a veteran hurler or two.

But, let’s think a bit bigger.  Looking at the free-agent pitching market, Trevor Bauer is the clear top option.  His stated preference for a team that is both analytically-inclined and willing to let him pitch every fourth day could make him a fit in San Francisco, as Zaidi and manager Gabe Kapler have both shown that they’re ready to think outside the box.  Bauer has walked back his previous declarations about only seeking one-year contracts, but the Giants have the payroll space to accommodate both a deal for just 2021 (Samardzija and Zack Cozart’s expiring contracts represent over $30MM coming off the books) or for multiple seasons.

Marcus Stroman is also likely to score a big multi-year contract (though Stroman also has a QO decision to make and he didn’t pitch in 2020 after opting out of the season), but MLBTR’s list of the top 50 free agents doesn’t project any other starter to earn more than $39MM, with Masahiro Tanaka and Jake Odorizzi both hitting that threshold on three-year deals.  Could the Giants hedge their bets slightly by making a Tanaka/Odorizzi-esque signing that would provide the rotation with a clear upgrade, yet still not represent a truly bank-breaking investment?

Going to the other side of the pitching department, the Giants plan to add at least one veteran reliever, so they could direct some funds towards bolstering the pen.  GM Scott Harris recently indicated that the club would prefer to develop a closer rather than sign one, but the Giants have the money to pursue a Liam Hendriks or a Brad Hand if they wish.  The Indians’ recent decision to waive Hand (and the subsequent decision of the other 29 teams to not claim him) suggests that there might not be much appetite for spending on relief pitching this winter, so San Francisco could gain an edge on the market by offering relievers contracts even slightly closer to what they would expect to receive in a more normal offseason environment.

Despite ostensibly being in a mini-rebuild over Zaidi’s two seasons, the team has been decently competitive.  The 2020 Giants fell just one game shy of reaching the postseason.  Provided that the lineup keeps hitting as it did last season, it isn’t out of the question to think that the Giants are a pitcher or two away from making some noise in October in 2021.  The offseason possibilities are just about endless for Zaidi, Harris and company….depending on how far ownership is willing to stretch the payroll in this particular winter.  Arguments can be made for going big or going small.  The likeliest course could lie in the middle — taking legitimate steps toward emerging as a contender without quickly bogging themselves down with another slate of untenable long-term contracts.

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