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Archives for May 2020

MLBPA Plans To Counter League’s Economic Proposal In The Coming Days

By Steve Adams | May 27, 2020 at 10:55pm CDT

10:55pm: The MLBPA does indeed plan to send its proposal to the league by week’s end, Passan tweets.

10:22pm: Nationals ace Max Scherzer, the team’s union representative and a member of the MLBPA executive council, issued a statement on Twitter, saying: “After discussing the latest developments with the rest of the players there’s no reason to engage with MLB in any further compensation reductions. We have previously negotiated a pay cut in the version of prorated salaries, and there’s no justification to accept a 2nd pay cut based upon the current information the union has received. I’m glad to hear other players voicing the same viewpoint and believe MLB’s economic strategy would completely change if all documentation were to become public information.”

8:46pm: Some players held a call today and were “pretty galvanized” in their distaste for MLB’s proposal, Heyman tweets. It’s in question whether the players will even make a counteroffer, Heyman and Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com hear.

10:11am: Major League Baseball presented its long-awaited economic plan to the Players Association yesterday, and the union’s reaction was predictable: extreme disappointment. As reported by ESPN’s Jeff Passan and Jesse Rogers, the sliding scale proposed to players would see the game’s league-minimum players would be paid about $262K of their would-be $563,500 salaries — roughly 46 percent (owners surely prefer to portray it as 92 percent of their prorated salaries in an 82-game season). The game’s top stars would be earning just over 22 percent of their full-season salary (44 percent of their prorated salaries). Many see the scale as an effort to create a divide within the union (lesser-paid players versus well-compensated stars).

The MLBPA is expected to reject the league’s proposal and counter in the coming days, per Passan and Rogers, with one point of compromise being a longer season. Playing more games would increase revenue available to owners and thus provide the players with a larger portion of their salaries. Interestingly, Ken Rosenthal and Evan Drellich of The Athletic report (subscription required) that the league’s sliding-scale proposal did not include the expanded postseason format that many were anticipating.

Expanding to a 14-team postseason format in 2020 would create additional revenue, and the players have previously been said to be amenable to such a schedule. Opting not to include it is strange, as the 14-team format originated with the commissioner’s office; it’s hard not to wonder if the league’s omission was an effort to make the players’ side include a league initiative in its counter, then claim it as a compromise upon accepting. Regardless of the motives at play, the timing of a counteroffer from the union is unclear. There’s no meeting between the two sides today, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale tweets, but agents, players and the union will discuss the proposal among themselves. The New York Post’s Joel Sherman writes that the two sides left yesterday’s meeting without a followup scheduled.

Players have had a wide range of reactions to the proposal, but they’re generally unified in rejecting the sliding scale structure — at least in its present form. Andrew Miller, one of eight players on the union’s executive subcommittee, told Rosenthal and Drellich that he’s “disappointed in where MLB is starting the discussion” but spoke with optimism about the possibility of finding a palatable middle ground. Mets righty Marcus Stroman tweeted yesterday, “This season is not looking promising,” while Brewers lefty Brett Anderson blasted the league for its efforts to make the game’s “best, most marketable players potentially look like the bad guys.”

Several agents spoke to Drellich and Rosenthal about player reaction to the proposal, with one indicating the “collective response” was unprecedented and that players are “livid.” Another scoffed at the very notion that MLB would present a proposal it knew would be so immediately rejected, lamenting that “there is so much distrust on both sides that we can’t be pragmatic adults.”

That distrust seems to be the core of the issue. The MLBPA has repeatedly cast substantial doubt on the league’s persistent claims that revenue losses are so substantial that this level of pay reduction is effectively a necessity. At the same time, teams have seemingly yet to provide the player side with sufficiently transparent evidence of that claim. MLB Network’s Jon Heyman tweeted late last week that an internal memo sent by the union to its players expressed frustration over the fact that Major League Baseball has still not responded to a March 13 request for financial documentation outlining the extent of revenue losses without fans in attendance. There’s no indication that has changed.

On the one hand, it’s easy to imagine that there’s a degree of legitimacy to ownership claims that additional cuts are necessary to mitigate losses in a season without gate and concession revenue. Is this extent of additional reductions in their proposal truly reflective of their economic picture, though? That seems doubtful, and the MLBPA claims it has yet to see sufficient evidence in this arena. Teams’ reluctance to open the books isn’t surprising, particularly given the manner in which both sides habitually and strategically leak “private” documents. (We’re all following along with this ugly billionaires-versus-millionaires quarrel for a reason, after all.) Perhaps the reluctance stems from the simple fact that their claims won’t be substantiated; perhaps it’s a lack of good faith that nothing will become public. Both could be factors.

Whatever the reasons, the rampant distrust displayed by both parties is increasingly unbecoming to a fanbase that is desperately craving some piece of normalcy amid a global pandemic that has created an unprecedented upheaval of everyday life. With every day that goes by, the optics of the situation deteriorate, and we inch closer to further delays of what will already be a truncated season. Both sides continue to express optimism about playing games in 2020 — Brewers owner Mark Attanasio did so yesterday, as did Miller in his comments to The Athletic — but the public back-and-forth became tired long ago.

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Remembering The Tigers’ 3-Star Sale

By Connor Byrne | May 27, 2020 at 10:04pm CDT

It seems like long ago, but the Tigers were one of the majors’ most successful teams in the first half of the previous decade. The club won four straight AL Central titles from 2011-14, a span in which it combined for a 366-282 regular-season record and took home a pennant (2012). Success has largely eluded the Tigers since that four-year run, though. Going back to 2015, they’ve posted just one winning season and are now only a couple weeks away from drafting first overall for the second time in three years.

During the summer of 2017, sensing his bottom-feeding team was a long way from contention, general manager Al Avila launched an aggressive rebuild. In a little over a month, he traded three of the Tigers’ veteran stars for a total of eight prospects. Here’s how those deals have gone so far…

July 18: Diamondbacks Acquire J.D. Martinez

Martinez was a failed Astro whom the Tigers scooped up off the scrapheap before 2014 and then saw evolve into one of the most dominant hitters in the game. As a Tiger from 2014-17, Martinez turned a remade swing into a line of .300/.361/.551 (145 wRC+) with 99 home runs in 1,886 plate appearances. However, with Martinez just months away from free agency, the Tigers parted with him in exchange for infield prospects Dawel Lugo, Sergio Alcantara and Jose King.

Martinez finished the season on a rampage in Arizona and has continued to rake in Boston since 2018, but Lugo’s the only player in the package the Tigers received for JDM who has even played for them. It hasn’t been pretty, as the 25-year-old combined to hit .237/.270/.362 (63 wRC+) with minus-1.0 fWAR from 2018-19. FanGraphs likened Alcantara to ex-Tigers shortstop Jose Iglesias a year ago, when he batted .247/.346/.296 in 378 trips to the plate in Double-A. Considering his lack of power, his well-regarded defense will have to carry him to the majors. King, 21, hasn’t advanced beyond Single-A ball, where he put up a meek .209/.283/.279 line in 193 attempts last season.

Aug. 31: Angels Acquire Justin Upton

Nearing the end of the August waiver trade deadline, the Tigers swung their first of two massive deals before the clock ran out. Upton inked a six-year, $132.75MM contract with the Tigers under 20 months earlier, and 2017 has been one of his most productive seasons yet. However, with the Tigers launching a rebuild and Upton weeks away from having to decide on an opt-out clause, they decided to let him and the remaining four years, $88.5MM of his pact go in exchange for righties Grayson Long and Elvin Rodriguez. The return hasn’t amounted to much so far – Long retired before he ever threw a pitch in the Detroit organization, though Rodriguez does have some promise. He logged a 3.77 ERA/4.06 FIP in 133 2/3 High-A innings as a 21-year-old last season, and MLB.com ranks him as the Tigers’ 27th overall prospect.

Aug. 31: Astros Acquire Justin Verlander

In one of the most famous buzzer-beating trades in the history of sports, the Tigers shipped off a franchise icon with moments to spare before the deadline passed. Verlander was regularly among the game’s superstar pitchers in Detroit since the first full season of his career in 2006, but as a then-34-year-old, his days as an elite hurler seemed to be in the past. Not the case, though, as Verlander rounded back into form down the stretch in Houston, which he helped lead to a championship in the fall, and hasn’t let up. In fact, he won his second AL Cy Young Award and earned his eighth All-Star nod in his age-36 season in 2019.

Although Verlander cleared waivers, he still could have used his full no-trade rights to reject the deal. In accepting the move, he cleared the way for the Tigers to receive three prospects in catcher Jake Rogers, righty Franklin Perez and outfielder Daz Cameron (Detroit also paid $16MM of Verlander’s remaining $56MM and gave up outfielder Juan Ramirez as a player to be named later).

Has anyone from the trio the Tigers landed contributed in the majors yet? Not really. Rogers debuted as a Tiger last season and hit a disastrous .125/.222/.259 (27 wRC+). Perez hasn’t pitched above High-A, and Cameron has had an awful time at Triple-A since he first arrived there in 2018. In fairness to these three players, they’re all still young – Rogers is 25, Perez is 22 and Cameron is 23 – so it’s far too early to write off their careers. In the cases of Perez and Cameron, it’s worth noting that they aren’t far removed from landing on top 100 prospect lists, so there’s still some intrigue in Detroit’s return for Verlander.

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The Best Top 10 Pick Of 2012

By Connor Byrne | May 27, 2020 at 7:59pm CDT

Before we revisit the top 10 picks of the 2012 Major League Baseball amateur draft, let’s begin with a reminder of a few notable players who fell just outside of it. Right-hander Lucas Giolito (No. 16), shortstop Corey Seager (18) and Marcus Stroman (22) weren’t deemed worthy of the top 10 at the time, but all three now look like above-average major leaguers. That’s more than can be said for some of those who were among the first 10 selections that year…

1.) Carlos Correa, SS, Astros:

  • Health has been the main issue so far for Correa, who has performed extremely well when he has been able to take the field. Since debuting in 2015, Correa has only appeared in more than 110 games in a season once (he missed 87 last year), but he has slashed .277/.356/.489 with 102 home runs and 18.5 fWAR. Correa also helped the Astros to a World Series championship in 2017, though that title has been sullied by a sign-stealing scandal.

2.) Byron Buxton, OF, Twins:

  • Buxton’s another player whom injuries have troubled to this point, and he also hasn’t been consistently productive. When Buxton’s right, though, he’s electrifying to watch. Buxton’s an elite defender in center field, where he has posted 42 DRS and a 25.8 UZR in his career, but his offense hasn’t come close to that level. He’s just a .237/.292/.414 hitter with 38 homers and 60 steals to date, but he may have turned the corner last year with a .262/.314/.513 line during a 295-PA campaign.

3.) Mike Zunino, C, Mariners:

  • Like Buxton, Zunino also hasn’t been able to put it together on a regular basis. Owing to a combination of defense and power, he was roughly a 4.0-fWAR player in two seasons (2014 and ’17) and a 2.0-fWAR contributor in another (’18), but he wasn’t very productive in his other campaigns. The 29-year-old is now a member of the Rays, who acquired him in November 2018 as part of a trade that brought outfielder Mallex Smith to Seattle, but his first season in Tampa Bay didn’t go well. Zunino ventured to the Rays as a .207/.276/.406 hitter. That’s not especially impressive, yet it trumps the .165/.232/312 line he put up a season ago.

4.) Kevin Gausman, RHP, Orioles:

  • Gausman has not evolved into a major league ace, but he has recorded a handful of respectable seasons. He managed a 4.22 ERA/4.16 FIP with 8.21 K/9 and 2.71 BB/9 in 763 2/3 innings with Baltimore from 2013-18 before the team traded him to Atlanta. Gausman was effective with the Braves then, but things went south last year, which led the club to cut ties with him in August. He finished the season on a solid run as a Reds reliever and then inked a one-year, $9MM deal with the Giants this past offseason. Not long ago, MLBTR’s Anthony Franco looked into Gausman’s chances of a full-blown bounce-back effort in San Francisco.

5.) Kyle Zimmer, RHP, Royals:

  • Injuries have played a significant role in torpedoing the once-promising Zimmer’s career. He finally made his MLB debut last season at the age of 27, but across 18 1/3 innings, he yielded 22 earned runs on 18 hits and totaled more walks (19) than strikeouts (18).

6.) Albert Almora, OF, Cubs:

  • Almora is coming off his third straight season of regular playing time, but he hasn’t made much of an impact in the majors yet. The 26-year-old has amassed 1,282 PA as a Cub and hit .274/.311/.403 with 2.1 fWAR dating back to his 2016 debut.

7.) Max Fried, LHP, Padres:

  • Fried didn’t pitch in the majors for the Padres, who sent him to Atlanta in 2014 as part of a blockbuster to acquire Justin Upton. But Fried now looks like a keeper for the Braves, as he gave the team 165 2/3 innings of 4.02 ERA/3.72 FIP ball with 9.4 K/9, 2.55 BB/9 and a 53.6 percent groundball rate in his first full season last year. As MLBTR’s Steve Adams recently explained, the 26-year-old Fried may have even more to offer going forward.

8.) Mark Appel, RHP, Pirates:

  • The Pirates didn’t sign Appel, which entitled them a compensatory pick (No. 9) in the 2013 draft. They used that selection on outfielder Austin Meadows, who broke out last season with a .291/.364/.558 line, 33 homers, 12 steals and 4.0 fWAR. The problem for Pittsburgh is that Meadows’ success came in a Tampa Bay uniform. In what looks like one of the most regrettable trades in franchise history, the Pirates sent Meadows, Tyler Glasnow and Shane Baz to the Rays for Chris Archer in July 2018.

9.) Andrew Heaney, LHP, Marlins:

  • Heaney only pitched 29 1/3 innings for the Marlins, who traded him to the Dodgers in a huge deal in 2014. And Heaney didn’t pitch at all for the Dodgers, as the club quickly flipped him to the Angels for Howie Kendrick. Since that chaotic sequence, Heaney has gone on to an up-and-down, injury-limited tenure as a member of the Angels, with whom he has totaled 408 2/3 innings of 4.34 ERA/4.36 FIP ball with 9.03 K/9 and 2.47 BB/9.

10.) David Dahl, OF, Rockies:

  • Yet another player whom injuries have haunted over the years, Dahl hasn’t yet appeared in more than 100 games in a single season. That said, at least the 26-year-old has been an above-average hitter when healthy. Even taking into account that he calls hitter-friendly Coors Field his home, he has logged a wRC+ of 111 thus far, having slashed .297/.346/.521 with 38 HRs in 921 trips to the plate.
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Which 15 Players Should The Braves Protect In An Expansion Draft?

By Tim Dierkes | May 27, 2020 at 7:00pm CDT

In a few weeks, we’ll be running a two-team mock expansion draft here at MLBTR – just for the fun of it!  Currently, we’re creating 15-player protected lists for each of the existing 30 teams.  You can catch up on the rules for player eligibility here.

The American League results are in!  Click here to see who’s protected and who’s available for each AL team.

So far, we’ve covered the Cardinals, Pirates, Brewers, Reds, Cubs, Diamondbacks, Rockies, Dodgers, Padres, Giants, Rangers, Mariners, Athletics, Angels, Astros, Twins, Royals, Tigers, Indians, White Sox, Rays, Yankees, Red Sox, Blue Jays and Orioles.  The Braves are up next.

First, we’ll start by removing free agents Marcell Ozuna, Cole Hamels, Nick Markakis, Mark Melancon, Shane Greene, Tyler Flowers, Adeiny Hechavarria, and Darren O’Day from consideration.  Freddie Freeman gets a spot on the protected list by virtue of the no-trade rights he’ll earn this year.  We’ll also add Cristian Pache and Kyle Wright as Baseball America Top 100 prospects with a 2020 ETA.  Here’s the initial list of nine protected players:

Freddie Freeman
Ronald Acuna Jr.
Ozzie Albies
Max Fried
Mike Soroka
Mike Foltynewicz
Dansby Swanson
Kyle Wright
Cristian Pache

That leaves six spots for the remaining 19 players.  Be sure to read up on their contract statuses and team control here.

Johan Camargo
Travis d’Arnaud
Grant Dayton
Adam Duvall
Ender Inciarte
Alex Jackson
Luke Jackson
Chris Martin
A.J. Minter
Sean Newcomb
Austin Riley
Will Smith
Chad Sobotka
Touki Toussaint
Jeremy Walker
Jacob Webb
Bryse Wilson
Huascar Ynoa

With that, we turn it over to the MLBTR readership! In the poll below (direct link here), select exactly six players you think the Braves should protect in our upcoming mock expansion draft.  Click here to view the results.

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Latest On Furloughs, Pay Cuts Among MLB Clubs

By Steve Adams | May 27, 2020 at 6:09pm CDT

6:09pm: The Rangers have committed to $400 a week for their minor leaguers through at least June, Levi Weaver of The Athletic was among those to report. The same goes for the Braves, per David O’Brien of The Athletic, as well as the Diamondbacks, Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic adds.

12:59pm: The Padres will also pay their minor leaguers the $400 weekly stipend through the end of August, Dennis Lin of The Athletic tweets.

12:34pm: Most of MLB’s 30 organizations agreed a ways back to pay their employees through the end of May. There were instances of lengthier commitments, but May 31 was broadly used as an initial endpoint, at which time fiscal matters would be reassessed. Minor league players have been receiving $400 weekly stipends during this time, but that arrangement is also only promised through the end of May. As you’d expect, clubs have begun to inform employees (both on the business and baseball operations side) and minor leaguers of their next steps. And, as you’d expect, in some instances it’s not pretty.

Yesterday was a particularly dark day in the Athletics organization, as ESPN’s Jeff Passan reports that the team informed minor league players they will no longer be paid their stipend as of June 1. Robert Murray of The Score shares the email that was sent to Oakland minor leaguers — one which was signed by GM David Forst rather than managing partner John J. Fisher. (Forst, of course, is being asked to play the messenger in this instance and is not the one making the decisions.)

Minor league players are generally undercompensated as a whole, and the $400 weekly stipend they’ve received over the past two months will now seemingly go down as the only baseball-related compensation they’ll receive in the calendar year. Their contracts, which are in a state of suspension but not terminated, bar them from “perform[ing] services for any other Club” and also render them ineligible for unemployment benefits, per The Athletic’s Emily Waldon (Twitter link).

As for the operations side of the equation, Athletics front office personnel will be either furloughed or see their pay reduced effective June 1 and running through the end of October, The Athletic’s Alex Coffey reports (Twitter thread). She adds that the maximum cut is 33 percent, and those determinations are based on seniority. Scouts aren’t considered front-office personnel, but they’ll be hit hard as well; USA Today’s Bob Nightengale tweets that A’s amateur and pro scouts alike will be furloughed from June 16 through Oct. 31. Fisher did write a letter to the club’s fanbase confirming the dramatic cuts (Twitter link via the San Francisco Chronicle’s Susan Slusser), emphasizing the pain that went into the decisions and his “deep commitment to the long-term future of the A’s.”

Those cutbacks are similar to the substantial cuts the Angels put in place earlier this month, but other L.A. club isn’t taking such rash measures. The Dodgers have informed all employees earning more than $75K that they’ll be subject to pay reductions beginning June 1, Ramona Shelburne of ESPN (Twitter thread). The extent of the reductions is dependent on overall salary — larger salaries get larger percentage cuts — and will be capped at 35 percent for the most part, although that they could be greater for the team’s very top executives. Those measures are being taken in an effort to avoid the type of large-scale furloughs being put in place in Oakland and Anaheim.

Across the country, the Nationals have implemented a series of partial furloughs both in baseball ops and business ops, Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post reports (Twitter thread). The Nats are still covering full benefits and haven’t made any layoffs, but they’re implementing a sequence of 10 to 30 percent reductions in pay and total hours. The Brewers, meanwhile aren’t making any baseball ops furloughs but are furloughing some business operation employees, Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel tweets.

It’s not yet clear how every organization plans to handle the minor league pay dilemma, but Baseball America’s Kyle Glaser has heard from at least three clubs that plan to continue varying levels of compensation. The Phillies will keep paying their minor leaguers through at least June, but likely at less than the current $400 stipend. The White Sox are paying $400 per week through the end of June, and the Marlins have committed to paying their minor leaguers the full $400 per week through August — the would-be conclusion of the 2020 minor league season. The Marlins already informed players earlier this month that about 40 percent of the baseball ops department will be furloughed on June 1.

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How Nats Could Continue Benefiting From Jordan Zimmermann’s Exit

By Connor Byrne | May 27, 2020 at 4:52pm CDT

It’s true that right-hander Jordan Zimmermann has fallen on hard times over the past few years, but it’s indisputable that he’s one of the top starters the Nationals have had since they moved from Montreal to Washington in advance of the 2005 season. A second-round pick two years later, Zimmermann debuted in Washington in 2009, but it took him until 2011 to break out. From then through 2015, Zimmermann logged five straight seasons of 3.0-plus fWAR, went to two All-Star Games, and posted a stingy 3.14 ERA/3.30 FIP with 7.26 K/9 against just 1.69 BB/9 in 971 2/3 innings. In yet another impressive accomplishment, Zimmermann threw the first no-hitter in Nationals history in 2014 (video here).

The year in which Zimmermann fired a no-no against the Marlins proved to be his penultimate season in a Nats uniform. He went on to parlay his success in D.C. into an expensive contract with the Tigers, who signed him for five years and $110MM before 2016. The Nationals haven’t missed him, though, while the Tigers surely wish they wouldn’t have taken such a big-money gamble. Zimmermann has never recorded an ERA below the mid-4.00s in a season in Detroit, where he has registered an overall 5.61 ERA/4.86 FIP through 508 2/3 frames in the first four years of his deal.

Considering how he has performed of late, not only does it look fortunate for the Nationals that they let Zimmermann walk, but doing so has a chance to continue benefiting the franchise for years to come. You see, by issuing Zimmermann a qualifying offer that he rejected, the Nationals received a high pick (No. 28) as compensation in the 2016 draft. They used that selection on on a Georgia-based high school shortstop named Carter Kieboom. There’s now a chance Kieboom will turn into a long-term linchpin at third base as the departed Anthony Rendon’s successor.

Now 22 years old, Kieboom has typically produced quality numbers in the minors – he batted .303/.409/.493 with 16 home runs in 494 plate appearances in his Triple-A debut in 2019 – and has rated among the majors’ highest-regarded prospects over the past couple seasons. In its most recent rankings, Baseball America (subscription link) placed Kieboom No. 1 in Washington’s system and 15th in all of baseball, calling him a potential “weapon” at the top of a lineup in MLB.

Kieboom was anything but a weapon during his first taste of MLB action last season, when he hit .128/.209/.282 in parts of April and May, but his woes only came over a 43-PA, 11-game sample size. The Nationals probably aren’t worried, though it remains to be seen how much of an impact he’ll make this season (let’s say one even happens). Kieboom hardly stood out in spring training, though you can take exhibition results with a grain of salt. Still, if the Nats don’t think Kieboom’s quite ready, they can plug Asdrubal Cabrera and perhaps Howie Kendrick in at the hot corner. Doing so likely wouldn’t stop the Nationals from believing Kieboom could be part of the solution over the long haul, and if he does eventually live up to the hype, it’ll be an added bonus for moving on from Zimmermann.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Which 15 Players Should The Cardinals Protect In An Expansion Draft?

By Tim Dierkes | May 27, 2020 at 4:00pm CDT

In a few weeks, we’ll be running a two-team mock expansion draft here at MLBTR – just for the fun of it!  Currently, we’re creating 15-player protected lists for each of the existing 30 teams.  You can catch up on the rules for player eligibility here.

The American League results are in!  Click here to see who’s protected and who’s available for each AL team.

So far, we’ve covered the Pirates, Brewers, Reds, Cubs, Diamondbacks, Rockies, Dodgers, Padres, Giants, Rangers, Mariners, Athletics, Angels, Astros, Twins, Royals, Tigers, Indians, White Sox, Rays, Yankees, Red Sox, Blue Jays and Orioles.  The Cardinals are up next.

First, we’ll remove free agents Yadier Molina, Adam Wainwright, Matt Wieters, Brett Cecil, and Brad Miller from consideration.  Andrew Miller has a $12MM club option for 2021, and we’ll consider him a free agent for this exercise.  In the case of Kolten Wong and his $12.5MM club option, we’ll assume the Cardinals exercise it and protect him.  Outfield prospect Dylan Carlson will be protected out of the gate given his 2020 ETA.  Paul Goldschmidt, Dexter Fowler, Matt Carpenter, and Miles Mikolas will be protected due to their no-trade clauses.  Here’s the full list of 11 players we’ll lock down right out of the gate:

Paul Goldschmidt
Dexter Fowler
Matt Carpenter
Miles Mikolas
Dylan Carlson
Jack Flaherty
Paul DeJong
Tommy Edman
Dakota Hudson
Giovanny Gallegos
Kolten Wong

That leaves four spots for the following 19 players.  Be sure to check out their contract statuses and team control here.

Harrison Bader
John Brebbia
Genesis Cabrera
Austin Dean
Junior Fernandez
John Gant
Ryan Helsley
Jordan Hicks
Kwang Hyun Kim
Andrew Knizner
Carlos Martinez
Tyler O’Neill
Daniel Ponce de Leon
Rangel Ravelo
Alex Reyes
Edmundo Sosa
Lane Thomas
Tyler Webb
Justin Williams

With that, we turn it over to the MLBTR readership! In the poll below (direct link here), select exactly four players you think the Cardinals should protect in our upcoming mock expansion draft.  Click here to view the results.

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The Jays Turned A Free Agent Whiff Into An Elite Pitching Prospect

By Steve Adams | May 27, 2020 at 3:21pm CDT

The 2016 season was a pivotal year for the Blue Jays. Fresh off an ALCS loss to the Royals in 2015, the Jays entered the year with reigning MVP Josh Donaldson set to play out his age-30 campaign and a series of notable free agents, headlined by Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion. They’d surrendered two MLB-ready arms — Daniel Norris and Matthew Boyd — for a David Price rental the prior summer and parted with another top pitching prospect (Jeff Hoffman) to escape their commitment to the declining Jose Reyes and swap him out for Troy Tulowitzki. Some of the dreaded “closing window” narratives were surrounding the club, and the Jays were clearly in win-now mode.

Toronto again made the playoffs, again won a Division Series matchup over the Rangers … and again fell to an AL Central club in the League Championship Series — this time the Indians. The offseason came around, and Toronto made issued a pair of no-brainer qualifying offers to Bautista and Encarnacion, who were two of the top bats on that winter’s market.

From the begining, Encarnacion seemed to be the bigger target. Bautista had dropped some jaws in Spring 2016 when talking about his asking price on a long-term deal, but Encarnacion was younger and seemingly more affordable. Toronto was aggressive early in the winter, reportedly putting forth a four-year offer that carried in the vicinity of $80MM of guaranteed money. There were some expectations that winter that Encarnacion could best that mark — we at MLBTR pegged him for four years at a slightly higher annual rate — and his camp seemed to prefer to explore the market before taking that offer. That decision blew up in Encarnacion’s face, though, as Toronto pivoted almost instantly and signed Kendrys Morales to a three-year, $33MM deal. By Nov. 18, it appeared Encarnacion had been replaced.

There were still some rumors about a potential reunion even after Morales was signed, but it never seemed likely that the Jays would commit to Morales at DH and Encarnacion at first base — tying up long-term dollars in a pair of sluggers best suited for DH work. Encarnacion drew varying levels of interest from the Astros, Yankees, Red Sox and Rangers, but in the end, his market bizarrely came down to a bidding war between two of the game’s smaller-payroll clubs: the Athletics and the Indians.

Oakland likely saw a chance to add a premium bat at an affordable rate. Encarnacion’s market had collapsed to the point where he was reportedly mulling a shorter offer with a roughly $25MM annual value (presumably a two-year deal) with the A’s. The Indians, fresh off a World Series loss, were in go-for-it mode with extra cash thanks to that deep postseason run. Encarnacion signed a three-year, $60MM deal with Cleveland that contained a fourth-year option which would get him to the $80MM mark he’d previously passed up.

The Jays took some heat from the deal both among media pundits and their fans. Encarnacion was the clear better player and ultimately cost less than twice what Toronto gave Morales. And from an on-field perspective, those criticisms were 100 percent valid. Over the first two years of each player’s three-year pact, here’s how they performed:

  • Morales: .249/.318/.442, 49 home runs, 40 doubles in 1079 plate appearances (103 OPS+, 102 wRC+; 0.8 bWAR, -0.4 fWAR)
  • Encarnacion: .252/.358/.490, 70 home runs, 36 doubles, two triples in 1248 PAs (123 OPS+, 123 wRC+; 4.7 bWAR, 3.3 fWAR)

Neither one played out the third year of his contract with the team that signed him. Morales was traded to the Athletics on the eve of Opening Day 2019, and Encarnacion had been moved to the Mariners in a complex three-team deal that sent Carlos Santana back to Cleveland with Yandy Diaz and others landing in Tampa Bay.

Many onlookers will say that the Encarnacion camp misread the market after their initial talks with teams. Some would argue that it was the Jays who misread things when they pivoted to Morales so quickly. You can argue that both parties failed to properly evaluate the free-agent landscape.

Encarnacion got his $60MM and then signed for another $12MM with the White Sox this winter, so he ultimately didn’t fall much shy of that reported four-year, $80MM sum. With the benefit of hindsight, it looks like the Jays came away with the short end of the stick — at least until you consider the compensatory draft pick they netted when Cleveland inked Encarnacion. Because the guarantee was greater than $50MM, the Jays’ comp pick landed between Round 1 and Competitive Balance Round A. That pick proved to be No. 28 overall, which Toronto used to select right-hander Nate Pearson.

Not only is Pearson now the runaway top Blue Jays’ prospect — he’s one of the best pitching prospects on the planet. The 23-year-old ranks among the 10 best prospects in baseball at Baseball America, MLB.com and FanGraphs, drawing considerable praise for his blistering triple-digit heater and a deep arsenal of secondary pitches. When ranking Pearson as baseball’s No. 8 overall prospect this winter, FanGraphs’ Eric Longenhagen wrote that he’s personally seen Pearson’s slider climb as high as 95 mph, adding that the pitch generally sits in the low 90s. Jim Callis and Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com write that Pearson has “as high a ceiling as any pitching prospect in the game.”

It’s true that Pearson has yet to demonstrate the ability to make 30 starts in a season, although that’s due largely to a fractured forearm sustained when he was hit by a comeback line drive. Pitchers who throw this hard will always give some onlookers a red flag, and Pearson did have a screw put into his right elbow during high school. He was healthy in junior college, though, and the Jays diligently kept his innings count down in 2019 after he threw just 22 innings in 2018. Pearson reached 101 2/3 frames last year, spinning a dominant 2.30 ERA with 10.5 K/9, 2.4 BB/9, 0.70 HR/9 and a ground-ball rate near 40 percent. He also topped out at Triple-A in his first full, healthy pro season and is widely expected to make his MLB debut in 2020.

Not every draft pick is guaranteed to be a hit, as evidenced by the Jays’ actual, organic first-round pick in the same 2017 draft that produced Pearson. Shortstop Logan Warmoth, selected out of UNC six picks prior to Pearson, has managed a .255/.332/.346 batting line in 947 pro plate appearances. He was a high-end draft prospect but doesn’t currently rank inside Toronto’s top 30 farmhands at MLB.com or their Top 38 at FanGraphs. Not exactly ideal for a recent first-rounder.

Luckily for the Jays, Encarnacion’s decision not to take their four-year offer — which would’ve run through the 2020 season — both saved them some cash and gave them a second bite at the first-round apple in 2017. And thanks to their scouting department’s decision to take a chance on a towering, flamethrowing righty in spite of a high school elbow scare, the Jays have a potential ace in the making who is on the cusp of reaching the big leagues.

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MLBTR Originals Toronto Blue Jays Edwin Encarnacion Nate Pearson

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Which 15 Players Should The Pirates Protect In An Expansion Draft?

By Tim Dierkes | May 27, 2020 at 1:00pm CDT

In a few weeks, we’ll be running a two-team mock expansion draft here at MLBTR – just for the fun of it!  Currently, we’re creating 15-player protected lists for each of the existing 30 teams.  You can catch up on the rules for player eligibility here.

The American League results are in!  Click here to see who’s protected and who’s available for each AL team.

So far, we’ve covered the Brewers, Reds, Cubs, Diamondbacks, Rockies, Dodgers, Padres, Giants, Rangers, Mariners, Athletics, Angels, Astros, Twins, Royals, Tigers, Indians, White Sox, Rays, Yankees, Red Sox, Blue Jays and Orioles.  The Pirates are up next.

First, we’ll remove free agents Jarrod Dyson and Keone Kela from consideration.  Chris Archer and Gregory Polanco each have an $11MM club option for 2021.  Polanco also has options for ’22 and ’23.  We’ll leave the decision on whether to protect Archer and Polanco up to you.

Ke’Bryan Hayes will make the list as a Baseball America Top 100 prospect with a 2020 ETA.  Here’s the list of eight total players we’ll protect out of the gate:

Ke’Bryan Hayes
Jameson Taillon
Adam Frazier
Joe Musgrove
Josh Bell
Kevin Newman
Bryan Reynolds
Mitch Keller

That leaves seven spots for the following 27 players.  Click here to read up on the Pirates’ contract statuses and team control.

Chris Archer
Steven Brault
Nick Burdi
Kyle Crick
Michael Feliz
Erik Gonzalez
Geoff Hartlieb
Guillermo Heredia
Clay Holmes
Sam Howard
Kevin Kramer
Chad Kuhl
Luke Maile
Jason Martin
Colin Moran
Dovydas Neverauskas
Jose Osuna
Gregory Polanco
Pablo Reyes

JT Riddle
Yacksel Rios
Richard Rodriguez
Edgar Santana
Jacob Stallings
Chris Stratton
Cole Tucker
Trevor Williams

With that, we turn it over to the MLBTR readership! In the poll below (direct link here), select exactly seven players you think the Pirates should protect in our upcoming mock expansion draft.  Click here to view the results.

Create your own user feedback survey

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2020 Mock Expansion Draft MLBTR Originals Pittsburgh Pirates

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Which 15 Players Should The Brewers Protect In An Expansion Draft?

By Tim Dierkes | May 27, 2020 at 9:00am CDT

In a few weeks, we’ll be running a two-team mock expansion draft here at MLBTR – just for the fun of it!  Currently, we’re creating 15-player protected lists for each of the existing 30 teams.  You can catch up on the rules for player eligibility here.

So far, we’ve covered the Reds, Cubs, Diamondbacks, Rockies, Dodgers, Padres, Giants, Rangers, Mariners, Athletics, Angels, Astros, Twins, Royals, Tigers, Indians, White Sox, Rays, Yankees, Red Sox, Blue Jays and Orioles.  The Brewers are up next.

First, we’ll remove free agents Ryan Braun, Brett Anderson, Justin Smoak, David Phelps, Eric Sogard, Jedd Gyorko, and Brock Holt from consideration.  Many of those players have club options for 2021, but we won’t make the Brewers use a protected spot on them.  Christian Yelich and Lorenzo Cain will make the list by virtue of their no-trade clauses.  In total, we’ll protect 11 players out of the gate:

Christian Yelich
Lorenzo Cain
Keston Hiura
Brandon Woodruff
Josh Hader
Omar Narvaez
Eric Lauer
Adrian Houser
Luis Urias
Freddy Peralta
Josh Lindblom

That leaves four spots for the following 17 players.  Click here to review contract statuses and team control.  Assume the expansion draft is taking place in November 2020.

Orlando Arcia
Ray Black
Corbin Burnes
Alex Claudio
David Freitas
Ben Gamel
Avisail Garcia
Ryon Healy
Corey Knebel
Jacob Nottingham
Manny Pina
Ronny Rodriguez
Brent Suter
Tyrone Taylor
Bobby Wahl
Devin Williams
Eric Yardley

With that, we turn it over to the MLBTR readership! In the poll below (direct link here), select exactly four players you think the Brewers should protect in our upcoming mock expansion draft.  Click here to view the results.

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2020 Mock Expansion Draft MLBTR Originals Milwaukee Brewers

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