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Trade Candidate: Joe Musgrove

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There are few players more likely to be traded this winter than Joe Musgrove. After putting up the league’s worst record, the Pirates are clearly not in position to immediately contend. That means GM Ben Cherington and the rest of the Pittsburgh front office are likely to be open to offers for most of their veteran players.

It’s not a good time for the Pirates to try to move most of those players, though. Gregory Polanco, Adam Frazier and Josh Bell all struggled to varying degrees in 2020. Trading any of that trio would be selling low; indeed, the Pirates are expected to first try to work out an extension with Bell this offseason. Unlike most of the Pittsburgh roster, Musgrove is coming off a strong season. He tossed 39.2 innings of 3.86 ERA/3.42 FIP ball. More impressively, Musgrove punched out 33.1% of opposing hitters, a stark improvement over his previous career marks.

Musgrove’s jump in strikeouts and whiffs might be a bit of small sample blip, especially since a brief IL stint for triceps inflammation limited him to eight starts, but he’d carved out a role as a solid mid-rotation starter over the prior couple seasons. Since joining the Pirates in advance of the 2018 season, Musgrove has thrown 325.1 innings with a 4.23 ERA and solid strikeout (22.8%) and walk (5.7%) rates. That level of production would appeal to a number of pitching-needy teams.

In an offseason when many teams are expected to cut payroll, Musgrove would also represent a more affordable addition than many of the options available in free agency. MLBTR’s Matt Swartz projects Musgrove to bring in an amount in the $3.2MM-$4.4MM range via arbitration. He’ll be eligible for arbitration once more next winter before reaching free agency in the 2022-23 offseason.

The Blue Jays and Pirates reportedly got close to a deal involving Musgrove during the season. It’s possible Toronto revisits those talks again, although they subsequently acquired Robbie Ray and Ross Stripling, both of whom remain in the fold. Virtually any team looking to contend in the short-term could try to strengthen their rotations by exploring a Musgrove deal. The A’s, Angels, Braves, Phillies and Yankees are among a host of teams who might fit the bill. There hasn’t been any movement on the Musgrove front to this point, but his name figures to be bandied about quite a bit in the coming months.

Quick Hits: Lindor, White Sox, Universal DH

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Some news and notes from around the league:

  • The Indians are planning to trade Francisco Lindor this offseason, but there’s nothing imminent on that front. A Lindor trade isn’t going to happen quickly, hears Jon Morosi of MLB Network (Twitter link). Morosi reiterates that Lindor will likely be on the move this winter, but Cleveland is expected to take their time as they explore the market. MLBTR’s Connor Byrne recently examined potential fits on that front.
  • The White Sox figure to be aggressive buyers this offseason, feels Buster Olney of ESPN. That’s not especially surprising. Chicago emerged from their rebuild to make the expanded playoffs in 2020. They then hired Tony La Russa as manager, reaffirming that the club is squarely in a contention mindset. The White Sox could stand to augment the rotation and address the corner outfield, where Nomar Mazara underwhelmed and looks like a non-tender candidate.
  • Olney also notes it remains “a safe bet” the universal designated hitter will wind up in place for 2021. Introducing the DH in the National League, like all of 2020’s COVID-inspired rule changes, was a one-year measure. MLB and the MLB Players Association would need to come to a new agreement to put the NL DH in play for 2021, but that seems likely “unless the MLB and players’ union animus erupts to the point of complete dysfunction,” Olney argues. Regardless of the DH’s status next season, it’s widely expected the universal DH will become a permanent feature in the next collective bargaining agreement, which will need to be negotiated next offseason.

MLBTR Poll: Kevin Gausman’s Qualifying Offer Decision

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Kevin Gausman has until November 11 to decide whether to accept the qualifying offer he was issued by the Giants. Should he accept, he’ll return to San Francisco on a one-year, $18.9MM deal. That wouldn’t foreclose the possibility of a multi-year extension with San Francisco, just as José Abreu and the White Sox brokered a three-year contract after Abreu accepted Chicago’s QO last winter. Rejecting the qualifying offer might pave the way for multi-year offers from other clubs, though. Gausman and his representatives have surely been gauging the market the past few days to shape their decision.

There’s a case to be made for Gausman as the second-best starter on the open market. The right-hander pitched to a 3.62 ERA/3.09 FIP across 59.2 innings this past season. His 32.2% strikeout rate ranked eleventh in baseball (minimum 50 innings pitched), topped only by Trevor Bauer’s 36% among free agents. Gausman finished tenth overall in strikeout minus walk rate and seventh in swinging strike rate. On a per-pitch basis, only Jacob deGrom, Lucas Giolito, Kenta Maeda, Shane Bieber, Luis Castillo and Gerrit Cole generated more whiffs. Gausman truly was among the game’s elite at fooling opposing hitters.

Moreover, he’s also one of the harder-throwing starting pitchers available. Gausman averaged north of 95 MPH on his heater last season, per Brooks Baseball. He got elite results on both the fastball and his signature splitter. Gausman didn’t find a breaking ball he was comfortable using frequently, a problem that has hampered him throughout his career. That didn’t seem to matter, though, as he was highly effective regardless.

Of course, teams aren’t solely factoring in a player’s performance in his platform year. That’s all the more true in a significantly shortened season. Gausman’s only a season removed from posting a 5.72 ERA over 102.1 innings, contributing to the Reds’ decision to non-tender him last winter rather than pay him approximately $10.6MM to return in 2020. Some of the underlying metrics at the time hinted at a potential rebound but it was nevertheless a surprise to see him perform at such a high level this past season. Gausman’s less consistent track record could lead to some trepidation on teams’ parts, particularly since signing him would cost them draft compensation at the very least.

It’s also worth considering whether next winter’s market would present a more favorable environment. Teams aren’t expected to spend aggressively this winter in the wake of massive revenue losses. Next offseason might still have COVID-19 effects, and there’ll be anticipated labor uncertainty with the scheduled expiration of the collective bargaining agreement in December 2021 (although it’s possible MLB and the MLBPA broker a short-term CBA extension in the wake of the pandemic).

Gausman would be one year older next offseason obviously, but he’ll only turn 30 in January 2021. He’d still be young enough to secure a lofty multi-year deal if he accepts the qualifying offer, then backs up 2020 with another strong season. The CBA prohibits players from being offered multiple qualifying offers in their careers, so Gausman will never have to wrestle with this decision again, no matter what he decides in the coming days.

In our top 50 free agents list, the MLBTR staff predicted Gausman would indeed accept the qualifying offer. We’ll turn things over to the readership with a pair of questions: should Gausman take the qualifying offer, and will he do so?

(poll links for app users)

 

 

Red Sox, Jackie Bradley Jr. Have Been In Contact

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The Red Sox have reached out to Jackie Bradley Jr.’s camp since free agency opened, reports Rob Bradford of WEEI. The 30-year-old has also drawn interest from the Astros and an unidentified team in the AL Central, Bradford adds. (Speculatively speaking, the Royals and Indians seem the most likely teams in that division to pursue centerfield help this offseason).

Bradley joined the Red Sox when the organization selected him with the 40th overall pick in the 2010 draft. He had cemented himself as the team’s everyday center fielder by 2015, a role he’s held ever since. Bradley has had his share of highs and lows at the plate, but he’s consistently been among the game’s best defensive outfielders.

To his credit, Bradley hits the open market on the heels of one of the better offensive showings of his career. He slashed .283/.364/.450 with seven home runs over 217 plate appearances in 2020, rebounding from a .225/.317/.421 line the season before. That strong showing positions Bradley well in a free agent center field market that’s otherwise quite thin behind George Springer. The MLBTR staff forecasts Bradley for a two-year, $16MM deal this winter, with Houston pegged as his most likely landing spot.

AL Notes: Blue Jays, Red Sox, Mariners

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The Blue Jays brought back Robbie Ray on a one-year, $8MM deal today, but recent history suggests they could still add more to the rotation writes Shi Davidi of Sportsnet.ca. Davidi notes that the Jays struck early last year in signing Chase Anderson, but that certainly didn’t slow their free agent activity. The Jays do seem to be fairly well stocked in the rotation, with Hyun Jin Ryu, Nate Pearson, and Tanner Roark more-or-less guaranteed to hold down rotation spots. Ross Stripling can also hang in the rotation, while Anthony Kay could get a look at some point, as could a whole host of arms from their Triple-A corps. The bullpen is stocked with former starters who can handle multiple innings at a time, which could allow someone like Pearson to see some time out there if he struggles to stay healthy while taking on more innings. That sort of strategy would make room for another arm or two if the Blue Jays like the price.

  • The Red Sox aren’t far enough along in their post-Mookie retooling to make a play for top shelf free agents, but that doesn’t mean they won’t be major players in free agency. With many holes to fill and few roster spots guaranteed, there is a universe in which the Red Sox bid on a number of free agents in the non-premium range. Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe runs through the free agent market by position to see where the Red Sox might be shopping. Low-cost veterans for the rotation like Tyler Chatwood, Chris Archer, or Garrett Richards could be on the docket for Boston, per Abraham.
  • Mariners GM Jerry Dipoto said he doesn’t expect next year to provide many starters at all who reach the 170-inning mark, per Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times. That’s certainly an interesting marker, given that it wasn’t that long ago that 200-inning campaigns were considered the standard bearer. It’s true that the Mariners might be more conservative than most in this regard: they’re planning to field a six-man rotation in 2021. In 2019, 51 pitchers crossed the 170-inning threshold. Still, Dipoto’s projection isn’t exactly laughable – nobody registered even 100 innings in the shortened season, and it’s might be unreasonable to expect starters to jump back to pre-COVID standards.

 

NL Notes: Giants, Phillies, Free Agent Spending

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Everything is on the table for the Giants this winter, per the Athletic’s Andrew Baggarly. It’s a different kind of offseason this year, but the constant is that teams always need to build their depth, says Giants President Farhan Zaidi. Baggarly provides this quote from Zaidi, who says, “Look, we’re in a big market. We consider ourselves a signature franchise. When you look at that group of teams, there’s always an expectation for how they might act.”

Zaidi and the Giants view themselves as being in a transition phase, and many in the industry would agree. At the same time, as Zaidi points out, they’re coming off a season in which they just missed the playoffs. If a below-market opportunity jumps out at Zaidi, the Giants could end up as buyers in free agency, even at the upper levels for the right guy, it seems. But there’s not likely to be a quick-strike headline for San Francisco. Broadly speaking, Zaidi predicts a slow-moving market this winter.

The Phillies expect to be slow-movers as well, per the Athletic’s Meghan Montemurro. Team President Andy MacPhail – who for now remains the top decision-maker in the baseball ops department – said in reference to the Phillies’ plans for free agency (per Montemurro), “…the likelihood of a significant add, I think, in the short term or even midterm is not very high.” MacPhail also generally observes that teams are more concerned with subtraction than addition at this point in the offseason. Even in a normal year, trimming payroll where possible and maximizing open spots on 40-man rosters predates most additions in free agency. This year more than most, however, teams have prepped the baseball-sphere for the prospect of limited spending.

By MacPhail’s account, Philly plans on being one of the more judicious clubs this winter. That’s not great news for those hoping to see J.T. Realmuto return to the Keystone State. Still, his statement leaves some room for a bigger move down the line. As Zaidi pointed out, it’s likely to be a slow market this winter on the whole. MacPhail could simply be prepping the fanbase not to expect a big signing, as he says, in the short-or-near-term. Long-term, the Phillies could potentially jump to the buyers column. Realmuto, however, is one of the free agents likelier to sign on the earlier side, given his standing as the top catcher on the market.

Latest From Tony Clark On MLBPA, MLB Negotiations

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Despite the antagonistic tone of the negotiations that spilled so frequently into the public square last winter, the MLBPA is hopeful that the sequel this winter will strike a more amicable (and private) tone, per the Athletic’s Evan Drellich.

At the same time, Drellich provides interesting comments from executive director of the MLBPA Tony Clark, who spoke harshly of last winter’s mediation in saying, “In essence, going back to March, what manifested itself thereafter, we view largely as a lockout. There are lines that can be drawn between what happened this year and what may have happened historically. But I continue to remain optimistic that as a result of that experience, we have an opportunity and take advantage of the opportunity, to work through our respective disagreements to the benefit of the game moving forward.”

It’s unclear what to glean from Clark’s retroactively labeling the coronavirus shutdown as a work stoppage, but if nothing else, his point highlights the severity of those negotiations. It also puts in no uncertain terms the length the players are willing to go in order to have their needs met.

Clark says the players are open to any conversation this winter, broadly speaking, but he also made a point to note the MLBPA’s general skepticism about the financial numbers being put forth by MLB in regards to their operating losses from 2020. The owners’ use of the word ’debt,’ for example, Clark explains as an evocation that misconstrues the true function of debt for businesses the size of MLB.

Issues like the universal designated hitter and extra-innings rules appear on the back-burner priority-wise for the MLBPA. One might expect a less steadfast approach from players in those areas. The MLBPA won’t be as flexible on issues of player pay. Players expect a battle in securing a full 162-game season in 2021, especially if fan attendance remains a non-guarantee. The owners will want the players to take some part in the financial risk of putting on a season when fans may not be allowed to attend, but the players don’t appear willing to bear that burden unless provided with more substantive proof of the operating losses suffered by MLB and the owners.

Until some of the numbers being put forth by MLB can be verified in some form or fashion, the owners’ financial concerns are likely to fall on deaf ears. MLB has been hesitant to provide more detailed financials to the players, however. This saga is likely to continue well into the winter, much as it did prior to the truncated 2020 season.

AL Notes: Mariners, Graveman, Rotation, Rays, Arozarena

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Kendall Graveman signed back with the Mariners with the expectation of sticking in the bullpen, he said on the Extra Innings Podcast. Graveman pitched out the bullpen consistently for the first time in his career last season for the Mariners, emerging as an option for high-leverage opportunities. The former Oakland Athletic spent 2018 with the Cubs while recovering from Tommy John. He signed with the Mariners and made a couple of starts in 2020, but the bulk of his outings came out of the bullpen. Heading into 2021, he’s fully committed to a bullpen role. He’ll the 30-years-old in December, and though he’s new to the bullpen, Graveman spoke confidently about his ability to adjust and let his stuff play up during shorter outings. The right-hander also spoke about shortening his arsenal. He plans on focusing on what works best and sticking with a couple of his strongest pitches, probably a heater, change, and curve primarily, though he also spoke about working in a two-seamer on occasion as a way to vary the look from the fastball.

  • Even with Graveman firmly in the bullpen, the Mariners plan on use of a six-man rotation in 2021 to help keep starters healthy, per Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times. With that in mind, they’re likely to at least explore the starting pitching market in free agency. Marco Gonzales, Yusei Kikuchi, Justus Sheffield, and Justin Dunn figure to return to the rotation in 2021, while Nick Margevicius and Ljay Newsome are the other holdovers. Logan Gilbert could also emerge as a potential option at some point in 2021, if not by Opening Day. Gilbert will turn 24 early in 2021. He finished 2019 with 9 starts in Double-A with a 2.88 ERA.
  • Randy Arozarena’s playoff performance was a dramatic enough affair to spark a feature film. Wonderfilm Media has begun working on an Arozarena biopic with plans for release in 2022 or 2023, per Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. The film, of course, won’t solely portray the postseason. Rather, the film will focus on Arozarena’s journey to MLB from Cuba. Wonderfilm co-founder Bret Saxon said (per Topkin), “We feel like the heart of this movie is his journey, and the people around him, how he was inspiring and helping the family back home. But, for sure, some of those big payoff moments are on the field, so there will be plenty of actual baseball in stadiums.”

 

Vlad Guerrero Jr. Hopes To Play Third Base in 2021

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Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has every intention of playing third base in 2021, per Emily Sadler of Sportsnet.ca. Guerrero understands why the move was made, but the decision to move Vlad Jr. to first was in part to protect him from a knee injury that contributed to his struggles at the hot corner in 2018. With the injury behind him, Guerrero apparently has some newfound fervor to turn himself into a viable option at third. Vlad’s defensive marks at first in 2020 were similar to his DRS and UZR at third base in 2019, which is to say they weren’t great (-4 DRS, -13.8 UZR/150). To his credit, Vlad took responsibility for letting himself fall out of shape during the pandemic shutdown.

If Guerrero succeeds, the Blue Jays could broaden their free agent search to include a full-time first baseman or second baseman. Cavan Biggio could move to first base full-time, leaving Toronto to explore pacts with Kolten Wong, DJ LeMahieu, or Cesar Hernandez, suggests Shi Davidi of sportsnet.ca. Of course, that probably presumes not only that the Jays are comfortable with Vlad at third, but that they are comfortable committing to him there for a couple of seasons. They have the designated hitter to play with as well, and Biggio’s versatility serves as a safety net of sorts, but it’s still worth a consideration. Travis Shaw is the incumbent at third, but he’s not likely to return as the full-time starter (.239/.306/.411 in 2020).

Timing might be an even bigger factor than Guerrero’s progress at the third for Toronto, depending on how quickly the hot stove shapes up. There are a number of high-profile third baseman available via trade should the Jays choose to go that route. This year’s platinum glove winner Nolan Arenado could theoretically be available via trade from the Rockies, as is Kris Bryant of the Cubs. Bryant can move around the diamond a bit as well, so even a star acquisition at third doesn’t preclude manager Charlie Montoyo from utilizing Vlad at both infield corners. Beyond LeMahieu, World Series champ Justin Turner is probably the best option at third base, though we here at MLBTR predict Turner to return the Dodgers.

Blue Jays Re-Sign Robbie Ray

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The Blue Jays have announced that free agent left-hander Robbie Ray has been re-signed.  ESPN.com’s Jeff Passan (Twitter link) was the first to report that the southpaw will receive a one-year contract worth $8MM.

It was a tough season overall for Ray, who posted a 6.62 ERA, 11.8 K/9, 2.3 HR/9, and a 7.8 BB/9 (highest of any pitcher in baseball with at least 50 innings pitched) over 51 2/3 combined innings for the Diamondbacks and Blue Jays.  If there is a silver lining, Ray’s numbers over his 20 2/3 innings with the Jays were better than his numbers with the D’Backs, though even a 4.79 ERA, 6.1 BB/9, and 1.7 HR/9 with Toronto is nothing to write home about.

Robbie RayStill, the Jays clearly saw enough to welcome Ray back into the fold and line him up for a spot in Toronto’s rotation.  Passan notes that the Blue Jays intend to use Ray as a starting pitcher, adding him to a rotation mix that includes Hyun Jin Ryu, Nate Pearson, Tanner Roark, and Ross Stripling.  It’s safe to assume that the Jays aren’t done exploring the pitching market, given how Ray, Roark, and Stripling all didn’t pitch well in 2020 and Pearson also struggled (and had some injury problems) in his first MLB season.

Home runs have always been an issue for Ray over his seven-year career, though his control went from being a concern to a full-on problem in 2020.  The one constant, however, has been strikeouts, as Ray has an 11.1 career K/9 and even led the league in that category in 2017 (12.1).  That season was Ray’s peak, as he finished seventh in NL Cy Young Award voting and seemed to be blossoming as a front-of-the-rotation starter.  However, Ray was more okay than spectacular in 2018-19, as his walk totals crept upwards, his ground-ball numbers declined, and batters began to generate more hard contact against his arsenal.

Ray’s fastball velocity also dropped by almost two miles an hour, from a 94.3mph average in 2017 to a 92.4 average in 2019.  His velocity clicked back up to 93.7mph last season, and while there wasn’t much to like about Ray’s Statcast metrics in 2020, he still finished in the 80th percentile in fastball spin rate.

Ray is still only 29, and the one-year commitment gives the Blue Jays a chance to take a longer look at Ray without sacrificing any flexibility in future payrolls.  Toronto is thought to be one of the few teams who has some spending capacity this offseason, and this early strike to re-sign Ray (when most clubs reportedly have yet to even figure out their 2021 budget situations) indicates that the Jays could be aggressive players as they look to build on their wild card berth from the past year.  MLBTR ranked Ray 36th on our list of the winter’s top 50 free agents, correctly predicting him for a one-year contract but for only $6MM.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

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