Archives for November 2020

KBO’s Hanwha Eagles Sign Ryan Carpenter, Nick Kingham

By Mark Polishuk | November 28, 2020 at 10:54pm CDT

The Hanwha Eagles of the Korea Baseball Organization have agreed to deals with left-hander Ryan Carpenter, and right-hander Nick Kingham. (Hat tips to the CPBL Stats website and Dan Kurtz of MyKBO.net.) Both pitchers will receive a $100K signing bonus, while Carpenter will receive $300K salary and another potential $100K in incentives, and Kingham gets a $250K salary and $200K in incentives.

Both pitchers will be spending a second season overseas. Carpenter pitched for the Rakuten Monkeys of the Chinese Professional Baseball League in 2020, and Kingham will remain in the KBO League after an injury-shortened season with SK Wyverns.

A veteran of 15 games with the Tigers in 2018-19, Carpenter posted an 8.57 ERA, 2.35 K/BB rate, and 5.7 K/9 over his 63 Major League innings. After inking a deal with the Monkeys last January, Carpenter performed well in his first CPBL season, delivering a 4.00 ERA, 4.55 K/BB rate, and 8.6 K/9 over 157 1/3 innings, starting 25 of his 26 appearances.

Kingham suffered an elbow injury that ended his stint with the Wyverns after only two starts (and a 6.75 ERA), as he was released in July. It wasn’t the first time that elbow problems have impacted Kingham’s career, as his development as a top-100 ranked prospect in the Pirates’ farm system was curtailed by Tommy John surgery in 2015. Though he still showed some flashes of his old form at the minor league level, Kingham managed only a 6.08 ERA over 131 2/3 career MLB innings with the Pirates and Blue Jays in 2018-19.

NL East Notes: Nats, Bryant, Cubs, Phillies, Matz

By Mark Polishuk | November 28, 2020 at 10:08pm CDT

The Nationals’ recent interest in Kris Bryant isn’t the first time Washington has explored trading for the former NL MVP, as the Nats and Cubs held some discussions just last offseason. Victor Robles was known to be of interest to Chicago in a potential Bryant trade, and Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post adds that held firm in keeping not only Robles, but also Juan Soto, Trea Turner, and pitching prospect Jackson Rutledge during negotiations with the Cubs.

Needless to say, there was zero chance Soto, Turner, or probably even Robles were being moved for Bryant last offseason, and this quartet will continue to be off the table in any trade talks this winter. Rutledge (the 17th overall pick of the 2019 draft and ranked by MLB.com as Washington’s top prospect) could have made some sense as a trade chip when Bryant was coming off an impressive 2019 campaign and had two years of team control remaining. Now, however, Bryant is just a year away from free agency and is looking to rebound from an injury-plagued 2020 season. As Dougherty notes, the Nationals or any other team might not have to give up much or any major prospect capital to land Bryant, if the Cubs’ chief intent is just to get Bryant’s projected $18.6MM salary off their books.

Latest On Blue Jays, George Springer

By Mark Polishuk | November 28, 2020 at 7:48pm CDT

George Springer is one of the most prominent of the many free agents the Blue Jays are reportedly exploring this offseason, though the Jays’ initial interest in Springer seems to be developing. According to Sportsnet.ca’s Shi Davidi, the Jays have “progressed beyond just talking” with Springer, which would seem to indicate that Toronto has issued at least one offer to the former World Series MVP.

Such a step doesn’t necessarily indicate that a deal could be close, or even that Springer is the Blue Jays’ top free agent target. However, the Jays already made one early signing in bringing Robbie Ray back to the club on a one-year contract, and the wide net Toronto is seemingly casting over so many free agents could indicate that the Blue Jays are looking to strike while many other teams are still figuring out their payrolls or (along those same lines) planning to wait to make moves later in the offseason in order to find bargains. Davidi opines that the Jays first seem to be looking at position players in order to “nail down their lineup adds, figure out what’s staying, and then trade to get pitching help.”

From Springer’s perspective, there are pros and cons to signing early (with the Jays or any other team). Signing a deal now would allow him to avoid any prolonged uncertainty on the open market and allow him to entirely focus on the 2021 season with his new team. If the Blue Jays are one of relatively few teams who reportedly have money to spend this winter, signing would ensure that Springer can get top dollar rather than see Toronto spend its payroll on other players and then leaving Springer short a major suitor.

On the other hand, while the expected free agent crunch should impact players in the middle and lower tiers of the market, Springer and the other top-tier free agent names can safely assume they’ll still find an appropriately big payday. MLBTR ranked Springer third on our list of the offseason’s top 50 free agents and projected a hefty five-year, $125MM deal for the outfielder, even as he enters his age-31 season. As such, Springer faces no real rush to sign immediately since he knows a big contract awaits somewhere.

Springer might also want to wait for his market to fully reveal itself, once more teams do get their budgets finalized and more offers emerge. For instance, the Mets don’t seem to be fully diving into offseason moves until they figure out their front office situation, and loom as a potential bidder for just about anyone. “While the Blue Jays may be willing to set the market, agents will probably want to wait for the Mets to drop the gauntlet,” Davidi writes.

Blue Jays Planning For New Stadium?

By Connor Byrne | November 28, 2020 at 7:12pm CDT

TODAY: In response to the Globe & Mail’s story, Rogers Communications spokesperson Andrew Garas released a statement to media: “Prior to the pandemic, we were exploring options for the stadium but through this year our primary focus has been keeping our customers connected and keeping our employees safe, so there is no update on the Rogers Centre to share at this time.”

Andrew Tumilty, a spokesperson for Waterfront Toronto, also told The Canadian Press that Willis’ piece “was the first Waterfront Toronto has heard of the Quayside site as a potential new home for the Blue Jays,” in reference to the team’s apparent Plan B if building a new ballpark on the current Rogers Centre site isn’t feasible.

NOVEMBER 27: Rogers Centre has been the Blue Jays’ home stadium since 1989, but that might not be the case for much longer. Blue Jays ownership is hoping to knock down Rogers Centre and put up a new multibillion-dollar facility in its place, Andrew Willis of the Globe and Mail reports.

As you’d expect with such a grand plan, there are potential roadblocks in the way. For one, Rogers Communications Inc. – which owns the Blue Jays – does not own the land on which the ballpark sits. That belongs to Canada Lands Company. Secondly, the Blue Jays would need the Canadian federal government to sign off in order to move forward with this project, which Willis writes could take five to eight years to complete if approved. Jays ownership, government officials and the real estate arm of Brookfield Asset Management Inc. plan to go public with the project in 2021, though, according to Willis. Those two companies would fund the stadium, whereas Rogers Centre was built largely on taxpayer money.

A replacement stadium for the Blue Jays would occupy some of the same land as the Rogers Centre. The rest would be dedicated to “residential towers, office buildings, stores and public space” as part of a redevelopment plan for Toronto, per Willis. If that plan collapses, though, the Blue Jays could seek a new lakefront stadium instead. Any new facility would feature natural grass, not the artificial turf the Blue Jays play on now, though it’s unclear whether it would include a retractable roof – the most recognizable aspect of Rogers Centre.

In the event the proposal to build a new stadium on the Rogers Centre site succeeds, it’s unclear where the Blue Jays would play their home games in the interim. Nearby Buffalo, N.Y., hosted the Blue Jays in 2020 because of travel restrictions stemming from the COVID-19 pandemic, but there is no word on whether that will continue if the club has to wait for a new ballpark.

MLBTR Chat Transcript

By Mark Polishuk | November 28, 2020 at 6:41pm CDT

Click here to read the transcript of tonight’s baseball live chat

Trevor Williams Elects Free Agency

By TC Zencka | November 28, 2020 at 2:38pm CDT

Trevor Williams has elected free agency over accepting an assignment to Triple-A, per John Dreker of Pirates Prospects (via Twitter). Williams was designated for assignment last week and largely assumed to choose free agency given his role in the Pirates rotation the last four seasons.

All told, Williams has been a steadying presence in the Buccos rotation since 2017, making a total of 93 starts spanning 522 innings with a 4.34 ERA/4.52 FIP, 7.0 K/9 to 3.0 BB/9, and 2.07 bWAR per 200 frames. The 28-year-old has mostly taken the backseat in the public eye to higher profile arms the likes of Tyler Glasnow and Chris Archer, however.

Williams best work came in 2017 and 2018. Last season was a low-point for Williams as he struggled to a 6.18 ERA/6.30 FIP in 55 1/3 innings over 11 starts. His strikeout rate actually increased to a career-high 19.4 K%, but his command wandered as well as his walk rate climbed to 8.3 BB%. The bigger issue for Williams was keeping the ball in the ballpark. He surrendered an ML-leading 15 home runs in 2020 despite the launch angle and exit velocity of opposing hitters decreasing from the previous season.

Mel Rojas Jr. Drawing Interest After MVP-Caliber KBO Season

By Tim Dierkes | November 28, 2020 at 2:08pm CDT

The MLB legacy of the Alou/Rojas family runs deep. Felipe and Matty Alou made multiple All-Star teams in the 60s, with Jesus joining them on the 1963 Giants for the first all-brother outfield. Felipe would further his reputation as the longtime manager of the Expos and Giants. Moises would become an even better MLB player than his father Felipe, racking up six All-Star appearances and MVP votes in seven seasons. And don’t forget Felipe’s other son, Luis, who was requested by MLB to use the surname on his birth certificate. Luis Rojas now serves as manager of the Mets.

Moises’ cousin, Mel Rojas, pitched in the Majors in the 90s for the Expos and other clubs, racking up 126 saves in his big league career. Mel Rojas Jr., however, hasn’t yet seen MLB success. Mel Jr., 31 in May, was drafted by the Pirates in the third round in 2010 as a switch-hitting outfielder out of Wabash Valley College in Mount Caramel, Illinois. At his MLB prospect peak, Rojas was ranked 23rd among Pirates prospects by Baseball America before the 2011 season. BA wrote, “Some see him as having five-tool potential, though with no true plus tool, but others see him as a tweener who won’t be able to remain in center and may not hit enough for a corner.”

Rojas topped out at Triple-A in the Pirates organization, and was traded to the Braves in 2016 for cash considerations. In 2017, he decided to reboot his career by signing with a KBO team, the KT Wiz. After four strong years in Suwon, Rojas is back on the radar for MLB teams. He appears on track for the KBO MVP award tomorrow after nearly winning the Triple Crown in 2020, boasting a .349/.417/.680 line with 47 home runs and 135 RBI in 628 plate appearances. Ted Baarda of Sports Info Solutions recently provided a scouting report on Rojas.

Rojas is represented by his cousin Jay Alou, son of Jesus Alou. Rojas fits best as a right fielder, and would require a Major League deal to return to the United States. As Rojas said to Kyle Koster of The Big Lead back in July, “If I win the MVP, I’m for sure getting a big-league contract. It would mean everything to me, and I’m not just saying that.” He earned $1.5MM in 2020, and is looking to top that amount. The Wiz would like to retain him, but Rojas is also drawing interest from three MLB teams as well as three Japanese clubs.

The question is how Rojas’ KBO video game numbers would translate to MLB. Rojas explained the difference in his interview with Koster: “Honestly, it’s harder to hit against Koreans than Americans sometimes. The average speed over here is 88-90 mph but it gets there quick and looks faster than it is. They’re very sneaky.” Rojas hasn’t mashed at the level of Eric Thames, who peaked at a 216 wRC+ in KBO and landed a three-year, $16MM deal with the Brewers four years ago. Thames has a 113 wRC+ in the Majors since returning, doing most of his damage against right-handed pitching.

When FanGraphs’ Dan Szymborski translated Rojas’ 2019 KBO season to its MLB equivalency, his .322/.381/.530 line in KBO became .266/.314/.448 in MLB. That’s pretty similar to the work of an Eric Hosmer or Renato Nunez the last couple of seasons, though Rojas upped his game in 2020. Unlike someone like Thames, Rojas has the ability to play the corner outfield capably, and appears to have the arm for right field. A low-level MLB deal does seem possible for Rojas, but he’d likely have to wait until after Wednesday’s non-tender deadline when teams will have a better picture of who’s available.

Garrett Richards On Blue Jays’ Radar

By TC Zencka | November 28, 2020 at 2:07pm CDT

The Blue Jays have expressed preliminary interest in Garrett Richards, per Ben Nicholson-Smith with Arden Zwelling on sportsnet.ca’s Blue Jays’ podcast. That’s not a head-spinning development, as Toronto is largely expected to kick the tires on most of the top names in the free agent pool. Still, “preliminary interest” means slightly more given the Blue Jays’ status as one of the more eager buyers on the market.

The Jays are known to have made a three-year, $40MM offer to Kevin Gausman, according to the Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal. In terms of their process for free agents like Gausman with qualifying offers attached (J.T. Realmuto, George Springer, DJ LeMahieu, Trevor Bauer), the Jays have a fairly specified process, per the same podcast as above. They take the dollar number that they’ve assigned to the draft pick they’d lose by signing a given free agent, and subtract that number from the offer made to the player. In a vacuum, that makes sense.

Predictive player evaluation models, of course, assume a range of potential outcomes, making for a murkier process than the one described above. To take any valuation of a player as gospel is unrealistic. Furthermore, putting the onus of the lost draft pick on the player largely neglects the competitive aspect of free agency. The only players Toronto could ever expect to sign would be ones they rate higher than the market norms (or those that could be convinced with supplemental appeals, such as culture, the tax situation in Canada, or the quality of the roster).

Granted, in a literal sense, that is exactly the free agent process – winning a free agent bid means signing those players for whom the Jays are willing to pay more than everybody else. That doesn’t just happen when the Jays find value in a player that nobody else can see – such as might be the case with the mythical “diamond in the rough” a la Max Muncy or Justin Turner signing with the Dodgers. In practice, most players have explicit appeal that multiple teams all see at once. This is why the dollar value of a player in free agency is by necessity a dynamic thing. In effect, it’s hard to know where exactly Toronto’s dollar value began with Gausman, only roughly where it maxed out.

Still, the greater point here probably comes from simply knowing Toronto’s thinking. As noted on the podcast, many conversations happen during the courtship process and only some actually end in contract offers. Though Richards comes from a different pool of free agents than Gausman – meaning free agents unburdened by a qualifying offer – there’s still no indication that Toronto has moved beyond those initial meet-and-greet level of courtship with Richards.

After missing out on Gausman, however, the Jays are clear about their desire to acquire someone else to fill out their rotation. Richards fits the profile. The former Angel isn’t at the tippy-top of the pitching market, but he did land 24th on MLBTR’s list of top-50 free agents. The 32-year-old posted a 4.03 ERA/4.28 FIP across 51 1/3 innings with San Diego last season, presumably showing enough in his full-speed return from Tommy John to prove that he’s back to full strength. For the Jays, that’s likely to put him up near the top for starters in their price range, speculatively speaking.

Braves Notes: Melancon, Morton, Leaks, Chemistry, And Culture

By TC Zencka | November 28, 2020 at 11:45am CDT

The Braves pulled off a somewhat surprising pair of moves early this postseason by nabbing starters Drew Smyly and Charlie Morton on one-year deals. That the deals were surprising, however, was not surprising. The Braves keep their internal conversations about players internal, according to the Athletic’s David O’Brien, who writes, “Atlanta is as leak-free as any organization in sports regarding rumors of potential trades and free-agent signings, and if the player and his agent are equally private, which is how the Braves like it and something that agents are aware of, there could and often are discussions and deals completed before anything is leaked.”

Hence, the dearth of news about re-signing, say, Mark Melancon, O’Brien notes, doesn’t equate to a lack of movement or interest. Simply, if the Braves do bring Melancon back, the public isn’t likely to hear about it until the deal is done.

In the meantime, Braves’ fans can content themselves with the additions they’ve already made this winter. After all, while neither the Smyly nor Morton contracts were big deals financially, they are big deals in terms of potential impact. The Morton acquisition bumped Fangraphs’ valuation of Atlanta’s rotation from the 16th-ranked rotation in the game to 11th, writes Jay Jaffe. Morton brings 1.5 more projected WAR than the Braves’ in-house alternative, per Steamer.

But for Morton, the decision to sign on the dotted line had as much to do with the personalities involved as it did the strength of the rotation. Familiarity with catching coach Sal Fasano, pitching coach Rick Kranitz, and catcher Travis d’Arnaud helped Morton commit to the switch from Tampa to Atlanta, according to a piece by O’Brien from just before Thanksgiving.

The already-established clubhouse culture in Atlanta also made the Braves an intriguing destination. Chemistry may not be the metric du jour for statisticians, but it was a consideration for Morton. Per O’Brien, Morton said, “Most good teams, they can outplay their talent level just by being close and having good attitudes and having fun. From everything that I know and what I’ve seen, the Braves have both. It looks like they’re really loose, fun-loving, but they’re also really talented. So I’m looking forward to being part of a group where you’re looking forward to getting to the park every day and you just want to hang out, being excited to play together.”

Quick Hits: Colon, Fresno Grizzlies, MiLB

By TC Zencka | November 28, 2020 at 10:21am CDT

The story hasn’t changed for 47-year-old hurler Bartolo Colon. Though he hasn’t pitched in the Majors since 2018, he desires to return and finish his career with the Mets, tweets MLB Insider Héctor Gómez. Colon felt the same way last May, however. It’s hard to imagine that his chances of suiting up again in New York have increased since then. A veteran of 21 seasons, the hugely-popular Colon turns 48-years-old in May. “Big Sexy” last appeared in the Majors with 146 1/3 innings for the Rangers in 2018. He posted a 5.78 ERA/5.47 FIP with 5.0 K/9 and 1.5 BB/9 that season. With that, let’s check on the latest updates from minor league baseball…

The Fresno Grizzlies are facing a tough decision: accept relegation from Triple-A to Single-A, or leave the Major League system entirely, according to J.J. Cooper of Baseball America. News of MLB’s ultimatum to the Grizzlies first came from Brianna Calix of the Fresno Bee, who obtained a letter emailed from deputy commissioner and chief legal officer for MLB Daniel R. Halem to high-ranking government officials in Fresno. In the letter, per Calix, Halem writes: “Because communications with the (Fresno) Grizzlies and City of Fresno have indicated they have no interest in operating a Single-A affiliate, we do not currently intend to offer any affiliation to the Grizzlies or Fresno.”
The Grizzlies remain committed in their stance to stay in Triple-A. The difference in league amounts to more home games, a higher profile, and likely more revenue. Fresno Mayor Lee Brand and Mayor-elect Jerry Dyer issued a statement in response to MLB, posted here on Twitter by Marek Warszawski of the Fresno Bee. It’s certainly easy to understand their desire to remain in Triple-A, but for MLB’s part, they’re trying to execute a restructuring plan that they think will bring more revenue to the game overall.
For a reminder on how the Grizzlies and other clubs got to this point, Baseball America’s J.J. Cooper walks through the timeline of negotiations between MLB and MiLB from December of 2018 to the present day. Cooper includes the latest development from last week when he reported on the changing dynamics for clubhouse managers.

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