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Latest On Health & Safety Negotiations Between MLB, MLBPA

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Major League Baseball’s latest proposal for the 2020 campaign hasn’t been met with open arms by the players. As the two sides continue to butt heads over the financial aspects of the 2020 season, there are also considerable health and safety guidelines that need to be negotiated.

This morning’s proposal, according to Jorge Castillo of the Los Angeles Times (Twitter link), would require players to sign an “acknowledgement of risk” waiver, which gives many in the union pause. Players are wary that upon signing such a waiver, they’d be unable to take any action should they feel the league provided an unsafe work environment.

Another potential hurdle to clear is that the league does not appear inclined to compensate players who opt out over concerns regarding the health of family members in either salary or service time. MLB Network’s Jon Heyman tweets that immunocompromised players — e.g. Carlos Carrasco, who missed much of 2019 while battling leukemia — could opt not to play but still receive both service time and salary. (Per Jeff Passan of ESPN.com, via Twitter, the league would define high-risk individuals as those who “may be more likely to suffer severe illness as a result of COVID-19 than others. … Individuals who, by virtue of their age or medical history, are at a materially higher risk … of complications.”

Players who aren’t willing to play due to similar concerns regarding a spouse, child, parent, etc., however, are viewed differently. Heyman indicates that the union is at least seeking service time for those players that opt not to play for reasons other than their own added susceptibility to coronavirus complications.

Perhaps most concerning, though, is the lack of communication between the league, the 30 clubs themselves and the local governing bodies that are overseeing broader efforts to deal with the public health threat posed by the coronavirus. Bradford William Davis of the New York Daily News reports that few of the relevant local authorities have been meaningfully engaged on plans.

It’s a bit surprising that some of these boxes have evidently not been checked at this point, several months into the COVID-19 crisis. Perhaps the league and its member teams feel they won’t have trouble smoothing over any issues on the public health front once they’ve got an agreement with the players. And while there could still be stumbling blocks in the collective bargaining negotiations over health and wellness, there’s also reason to think the sides can come together. Indeed, Andy Martino of SNY.tv tweets that the general issue still isn’t expected to pose any significant roadblock.

Latest MLB Proposal Includes Further Expansion Of Playoff Field

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4:24pm: A variety of other notable details of the new proposal have now emerged. Initial reactions from the players’ side to the latest draft agreement seem less than favorable. The league has communicated its view that the sides “need to reach an agreement by Wednesday” in order to prepare for a 76-game campaign.

Players would be guaranteed half of their prorated salaries, per Ronald Blum of the Associated Press. If the postseason goes off without a hitch, the players would collectively stand to earn 75% of the prorated portion of their original salary guarantees.

The league has also suggested some major tweaks to the 2020-21 offseason, as Jeff Passan of ESPN.com covers on Twitter. The qualifying offer would go on hiatus. Instead, a team would get draft compensation for losing a player who signed a multi-year deal for over $35MM or a one-year deal for over $17.8MM. Signing such a player wouldn’t require any sacrifice of draft picks.

1:17pm: The new proposal sent this morning by Major League Baseball to the Players Association in many ways boils down to a repackaging of previous, similar offers, but it does come with at least one particularly notable change, per Joel Sherman of the New York Post (Twitter link). The league asked for 2020 postseason fields to expand even beyond the previously discussed 14 teams, adding another team per league and bringing the total to 16 playoff clubs.

The idea behind the league’s latest expansion would see a traditional bracket format play out, with the No. 1 seed playing the No. 8 seed, No. 2 vs. No. 7, etc. until each league has played down to one winner to square off in the World Series. The first round of play, Sherman adds, would be just a three-game set.

That’s a particularly strong deviation from the norm, where the top teams in each league have long been assured at least a five-game series against the weakest playoff entrant. The prospect of a sub-.500 No. 8 seed upsetting a dominant N0. 1 seed would create some excitement, to be sure, but the watered down playoff field and short early-round formats would undoubtedly be a turnoff for a very vocal set of MLB fans as well.

The league’s motivation here is clear. Postseason television contracts represent ownership’s best stream of revenue without fans in attendance at MLB games, and further broadening the playoff field would ensure that more games are played and that fans from more markets tune in to see the early rounds of play. The latest proposal from MLB to the MLBPA calls for owners to share some of those television rights with the players — typically, player postseason shares are derived from gate alone — so it’s only logical that owners are keyed in on making those games as lucrative as possible.

Today’s proposal will surely be rejected by the union, but it’s interesting that the league has now requested even more playoff expansion. On the surface, that’s something the MLBPA could incorporate into a counter-proposal, although it remains eminently possible that we simply see commissioner Rob Manfred implement a heavily truncated season with fully prorated pay. As few as 48 to 54 games have been speculated upon in the past week.

Shortened 2020 Season Could Impact 2021 Draft

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As the league and MLBPA continue to squabble over the length of the 2020 season, ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel reports that whatever length is determined could well impact the state of the 2021 draft (Twitter link). Per McDaniel, the standing March agreement between MLB and the MLBPA indicates the following language:

In the event that each Club plays less than 81 regular season games in 2020, the Office of the Commissioner shall have the right, after conferring in good faith with the MLBPA, to modify the Draft order.

Certainly, the notion of “good faith” negotiations between Major League Baseball and the MLB Players Association seems far-fetched at this point, but the possibility of changes to the determination of the ’21 draft order are nevertheless important to note. Many have suggested that a particularly brief season — MLB has been exploring 48- and 54-game scenarios — won’t offer an accurate barometer for determining the best teams. With a short enough season, even a poor couple of weeks could be enough to make a club set its sights on the 2021 season, which could impact the 2020 season in a variety of ways.

Baseball’s current proposal is for a 76-game season with cuts beyond the players’ prorated salaries. It became clear almost immediately upon word of that deal leaking that it would be yet another nonstarter for the Players Association, however, as the new proposal guarantees only half of the players’ prorated salaries for 46.9 percent of a standard 162-game season (plus another 25 percent of their prorated pay if the postseason is completed).

ESPN’s Jeff Passan reported back in March that the agreement between MLB and the MLBPA also allows the league to shorten the 2021 draft from 40 rounds to 20 rounds.

MLB Makes New Economic Proposal To MLBPA

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10:55am: Players have been asked to respond to the proposal by Wednesday, tweets ESPN’s Jeff Passan.

10:25am: Major League Baseball’s 30 owners have made a new proposal to the union, ESPN’s Karl Ravech reports (via Twitter). The latest attempt by the league to return to play would see a 76-game season that pays players at 75 percent of their prorated contracts and concludes on Sept. 27. The postseason would still finish before the end of October, and the players would receive some portion of “playoff pool money.” Draft pick compensation for signing players would also be temporarily eliminated.

On the one hand, it’s encouraging to see a new effort from ownership. On the other hand, Mike Axisa of CBS Sports points out (via Twitter) that the offer essentially boils down to the same one the league has previously made twice — just dressed up differently. The league’s 82-game, sliding-scale proposal would’ve paid players, on average, about a third of their full-season salary. That’s also true of a roughly 50-game schedule with fully prorated salaries, and the new offer is also in that same ballpark.

To that end, it’s not surprising to see SNY’s Andy Martino tweet that the general player reaction to this is further anger. The Athletic’s Evan Drellich elaborates, tweeting that the union thinks this offer is actually a step back, as players would be more dependent on postseason bonuses to receive their full pay — despite the fact that the league itself has persistently expressed concern about the potential cancellation of playoff games due to an autumn surge in COVID-19 cases.

Per Drellich, the proposal would pay players only half of their prorated salaries for the proposed 76-game regular season, though that number would rise to 75 percent should a full postseason be able to be played out. Meanwhile, Ravech tweets that some sources contend that this offer translates to about $200MM more in total player salaries being paid out in 2020. That seems contingent on the postseason being played in full, though, so the union likely does not see things that way.

It’s also worth noting that while the league can point to the temporary suspension of the qualifying offer/draft compensation system as a win for players, that’s a potentially hollow gesture. Given the widespread revenue losses, even fewer players than usual would be expected to receive a QO at all. Mookie Betts, George Springer and J.T. Realmuto might receive a QO under any circumstance, but borderline cases would almost surely not be given a QO due to ownership fear over accepting and being saddled with a hefty 2021 salary. The Athletics were in essence publicly shamed into paying their minor league players after cutting their weekly stipends to save a total of $1.2MM; it shouldn’t even be assumed that a player like Marcus Semien would be guaranteed a QO.

It seems quite likely that the MLBPA will reject this offer, though if the outcome is a return to some actual back-and-forth negotiation, that could make the new proposal significant even if it was never likely to be accepted in the first place.

In the absence of a true negotiation, the league appears poised to stand by commissioner Manfred’s ability to set a season length at which ownership is comfortable paying fully prorated salaries. If the league views that as the likely outcome, then it may not feel a great sense of urgency anyhow, as a season in the vicinity of 50 games could be played out between August and September (or sooner, depending on start date) with a postseason being completed well prior to the Oct. 31 cutoff point on which owners have been adamant.

Quick Hits: Harris, Nationals, A’s Ballpark, Cardinals

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Nationals assistant general manager and VP of player personnel Doug Harris is back home and recovering after a recurrence of leukemia, the Washington Post’s Barry Svrluga writes.  This is the fourth separate time Harris has fought the disease, with this latest incident resulting in a blood transplant, further rounds of chemotherapy and radiation treatments, and a 26-day stint in hospital.  This all came as the coronavirus pandemic wreaked havoc on the medical system and put patients like Harris at an even more elevated risk.  “It was the lowest point in my life, without a doubt,” Harris said, as he had to endure this battle while his family was prohibited from visiting due to COVID-19 restrictions.  “I’m a very faithful person, but it’s tough to understand,” Harris said.  “And there’s people out there far worse off than me.  I never lose sight of that.  But, my goodness, four times?  Come on, man.  It tests your mettle.”

Thankfully, the transplant was a success (all three of Harris’ daughters volunteered blood, with doctors opting for the donation from his middle daughter Sydney) and Harris is now resting at home.  While his daily activities are understandably limited, Harris has been able to join other Nationals staffers in conference calls about how to approach and prepare for a potential 2020 season.  “This has been part of my life. I’m proud of what I’ve been able to overcome,” Harris said. “And there’s a great story that is not finished yet. Not even close.”  We at MLBTR are all looking forward to the next chapters of Harris’ story, and we join the rest of the baseball world in wishing him the best in his recovery.

More items….

  • Athletics president Dave Kaval provided the latest on the team’s efforts towards a new Oakland ballpark, telling Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle that the A’s are still “moving forward with” the plan at the Howard Terminal site.  “Right now, we’re just focused on taking it quarter by quarter and seeing how much progress we can make.  We are not at the top of the list [for the city of Oakland] because there are more pressing issues, and we want to be respectful of that as we garner the necessary approvals to move forward,” Kaval said.  It isn’t yet known if the pandemic could result in the project being pushed back from the original target date of the 2023 season, as “the timing of those things aren’t known right now because everything is still in flux,” Kaval said.
  • As for the Athletics’ current ballpark, Kaval told Slusser that the team is in discussions with local officials about how to safely open and operate the Oakland Coliseum under advanced health guidelines.  The A’s already submitted a 67-page document outlining what health and safety procedures will be in place, and approval from Alameda County could come as early as Monday.  When or if this approval is granted, A’s players will be able to begin workouts at the ballpark.
  • The Cardinals have five selections within the first 93 picks of Wednesday’s amateur draft, and seven picks overall during the five-round event.  As Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch describes the situation, “it’s a cluster of picks that allows for some gamesmanship. The Cardinals could use it as a reason to shuffle around bonus money and reach for a pick, to gamble on signability — or play it safe, target predictable picks, and try to get sure things from an unsure draft.”  Whether the club pursues any sort of overarching strategy at all might not be realistic, as assistant GM Randy Flores notes that “in reality, each pick is made in the context of that moment.”  The shortened nature of the draft will also be a big factor in the team’s decision-making, as Goold points out that the Cardinals have traditionally been very successful at finding future gems later in the draft.  On the current St. Louis roster alone, Matt Carpenter (13th round, 2009) and Tommy Edman (sixth round, 2016) were two homegrown products drafted after the fifth round.

Each AL Team’s Top Recent Draft Class

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With the MLB draft scheduled for next week, let’s take a look at each American League team’s most successful draft class in recent memory. Using Baseball Reference’s draft tracker, we can sum the combined career bWAR of each player selected by each team in a given year. It’s a simple shorthand, not a perfect measure, but it’ll give some insight into which teams have really hit in certain years.

First, a quick note on the methodology. For simplicity, we’re limiting this search to the 2006-2015 classes. A player’s value is only included if he signed with the club, although he needn’t have actually played for his drafting team in the majors. (So, the 2008 Yankees don’t get credit for drafting but failing to sign Gerrit Cole, while the 2007 Red Sox do get credit for drafting and signing Anthony Rizzo, even though he was traded before ever playing an MLB game for Boston). Of course, a player drafted in 2006 has had more time to rack up value than one drafted in 2015, so we’ll note in each team’s capsule if a more recent class is on the verge of taking over from an older class. On to the results…

  • Angels: 2009 (109.3 bWAR) – Go figure. Picking one of the greatest players of all time is a heck of a way to kick off a draft class. But this 2009 class wasn’t just about Mike Trout, even if he’s accounted for about two-thirds of its cumulative value. That year, the Angels also selected Patrick Corbin, Randal Grichuk, Garrett Richards and Tyler Skaggs. Former MLBTR contributor Chuck Wassterstrom took a behind-the-scenes look at this class a few years ago.
  • Astros: 2009 (53.2 bWAR) – Not a single one of the Astros’ top five rounders in 2009 reached the majors. The late rounds, though, were a smashing success with J.D. Martinez (20th), Dallas Keuchel (7th) and Kiké Hernández (6th) accounting for the class’ value. Of course, Martinez did his damage elsewhere after the Astros released him.
  • A’s: 2012 (37.7 bWAR) – The A’s 2012 class produced seven big leaguers, most notably Matt Olson. He leads a group that also included Addison Russell and Max Muncy, who have played most or all of their MLB careers elsewhere.
  • Blue Jays: 2009 (39.2 bWAR) – They won’t get credit for selecting James Paxton in supplemental round one here, but Yan Gomes was a nice find in the tenth round, though he would play only briefly in Toronto before being dealt to Cleveland. Outside of Gomes, the Blue Jays found a few nice role players, including Jake Marisnick, Aaron Loup, Ryan Goins, and others.
  • Indians: 2011 (38.7 bWAR) – Selecting Francisco Lindor eighth overall in 2011 was a key to Cleveland’s 2016 AL pennant. So too was then-closer Cody Allen, whom they grabbed in the 23rd round. With Lindor mid-prime, the class’ value should just continue to grow.
  • Mariners: 2006 (40.2 bWAR) – Doug Fister and Chris Tillman went on to become mid-rotation starters for a time (Fister arguably even a bit more than that), albeit with other clubs. Fifth overall pick Brandon Morrow disappointed as a starter but had a late-career renaissance as a quality reliever before various injuries derailed him.
  • Orioles: 2007 (43.2 bWAR) – Although only four players from this class would wind up making the Majors, the combination of Jake Arrieta and Matt Wieters makes the 2007 draft a pretty solid one for the O’s. While Wieters, the fifth overall pick, maybe didn’t turn out to be the franchise cornerstone he was hailed to be, he has nonetheless had a nice career. Arrieta had a slow start in Baltimore, but would of course earn a Cy Young with the Cubs. It’s worth noting that this spot will be taken by the 2010 class before too long, almost entirely on the back of Manny Machado.
  • Rangers: 2008 (33.3 bWAR) – Despite garnering only a 25th-round selection, Tanner Roark has turned out to be the most productive player in this class. First-round choice Justin Smoak deserves a mention too, though his career didn’t really take off until he’d been traded out of Texas. The 2011 class, headed by Kyle Hendricks, is not far behind and could claim this title in the near future.
  • Rays: 2006 (81.5 bWAR) – Franchise legend Evan Longoria does a lot of the heavy lifting for this class, having amassed 56 total WAR by age 34. Even so, there are some other quality players here: Desmond Jennings and Alex Cobb are the other notables, with Jennings carving out a solid MLB career as a tenth-round pick.
  • Red Sox: 2011 (70.2 bWAR) – This is far and away the best Sox draft class in recent memory, and it shouldn’t surprise anyone. Mookie Betts, one of the finest players in baseball, established himself as Boston’s franchise player after he was selected in the fifth round. Even outside of Betts, this class yielded a few key members of the Red Sox 2018 World Series team, with Jackie Bradley Jr. and relief ace Matt Barnes also coming out of that draft.
  • Royals: 2007 (47.1 bWAR) – Speaking of drafting World Series contributors, the Royals in 2007 added both Mike Moustakas and Greg Holland, both of whom turned out to be central in the Royals’ playoff runs in 2014 and 2015. And that’s before mentioning third-rounder Danny Duffy, who’s still with Kansas City and inked a nice extension prior to 2017.
  • Tigers: 2007 (20.6 bWAR) – With just 20.6 WAR, the Tigers’ best draft in recent memory doesn’t compare favorably to the rest of the AL, and that partly illuminates the franchise’s current standing in baseball. The notable player from the 2007 class is Rick Porcello, who had some nice years to begin his career with the Tigers and would later win a Cy Young. Maybe they get bonus points for discovering high-schooler D.J. LeMahieu, who wouldn’t sign with the team, in round 41?
  • Twins: 2009 (32.4 bWAR) – Between Kyle Gibson and Brian Dozier, the Twins drafted a pair of staples on the Minnesota teams of the mid-2010s. But with both playing elsewhere now, keep an eye on the 2012 draft class, which features a trio of young centerpieces for a new era of Twins baseball: Byron Buxton, Jose Berrios, and Taylor Rogers are up-and-comers who could rack up a lot of value as they enter their primes.
  • White Sox: 2010 (55.3 bWAR) – Chris Sale carries the 2010 class for the South Siders, by far the best draftee in an otherwise mediocre string of years for Chicago. That said, 2010 yielded a couple of other role players for the White Sox, with Addison Reed, Jake Petricka, and Tyler Saladino all making nice MLB contributions.
  • Yankees: 2006 (69.4 bWAR) – Whereas many teams’ success in a given year is determined by one standout player, the Yankees’ installment on this list displays a surprising breadth of quality players, without a single superstar. Evidently, the 2006 Yankees cornered the market on MLB relievers: Ian Kennedy, David Robertson, Dellin Betances, Mark Melancon, and Joba Chamberlain are the five most productive players from the Bombers’ draft that year (granted, Kennedy didn’t transition to the bullpen until last year).

Each NL Team’s Top Recent Draft Class

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With the MLB draft scheduled for next week, let’s take a look at each National League team’s most successful draft class in recent memory. Using Baseball Reference’s draft tracker, we can sum the combined career bWAR of each player selected by each team in a given year. It’s a simple shorthand, not a perfect measure, but it’ll give some insight into which teams have really hit on their picks in certain years.

First, a quick note on the methodology. For simplicity, we’re limiting this search to the 2006-2015 classes. A player’s value is only included if he signed with the club, although he needn’t have actually played for his drafting team in the majors. (So, the 2008 Yankees don’t get credit for drafting but failing to sign Gerrit Cole, while the 2007 Red Sox do get credit for drafting and signing Anthony Rizzo, even though he was traded before ever playing an MLB game for Boston). Of course, a player drafted in 2006 has had more time to rack up value than one drafted in 2015, so we’ll note in each team’s capsule if a more recent class is on the verge of taking over from an older class. On to the results…

  • Braves: 2007 (76.6 bWAR) – Hitting on Jason Heyward and Freddie Freeman in the first two rounds goes a long way. Heyward has been a disappointment with the Cubs but had some electrifying seasons in his early days in Atlanta (and his year in St. Louis), while Freeman has emerged as a fixture in the Braves’ lineup as one of the best hitters in baseball over the past decade.
  • Brewers: 2009 (30.7 bWAR) – This was period of some underwhelming draft returns for Milwaukee. The 2009 class tops the list thanks to Khris Davis, Mike Fiers and Scooter Gennett, all of whom are better known for their play (or whistleblowing, in Fiers’ case) elsewhere.
  • Cardinals: 2006 (56.3 bWAR) – By virtue of putting up baseball’s best record in 2005, the Cardinals sat at the back of every round in 2006. No matter, as they managed to find a handful of highly productive big leaguers. First-rounder Adam Ottavino didn’t work out in St. Louis but went on to a strong career as a reliever in Colorado. Tommy Pham (16th round) and Jon Jay (2nd round) have each carved out strong careers, while Allen Craig (8th round) had a brief but productive peak.
  • Cubs: 2007 (54.4 bWAR) – Unfortunately for the Cubs, this class is almost all about Josh Donaldson, who did none of his damage in a Chicago uniform. Perhaps Javier Báez (2012 draft) or Kris Bryant (2013 draft) will match or exceed Donaldson’s stellar career in time.
  • Diamondbacks: 2009 (73.1 bWAR) – Paul Goldschmidt (8th round) went on to become the top position player in franchise history. First-rounder AJ Pollock had a couple star-level seasons of his own before injuries knocked him off track, while Chase Anderson (9th round) has emerged as a solid back-of-the-rotation starter.
  • Dodgers: 2006 (70.6 bWAR) – The Dodgers only signed two big leaguers from the 2006 class. When one of them goes on to become arguably the best pitcher of his generation, you can more than get away with it. Clayton Kershaw’s Hall of Fame plaque will boast at least three Cy Young Awards and an NL MVP.
  • Giants: 2008 (65.6 bWAR) – The late-2000’s draft classes set up the crux of the Giants’ three World Series titles the first half of the next decade. None was more impactful than 2008, when SF grabbed Buster Posey and Brandon Crawford in the first and fourth rounds, respectively.
  • Marlins: 2010 (56.1 bWAR) – Christian Yelich and J.T. Realmuto have matured into two of the best players in baseball, so the Marlins’ 2010 class (which also boasted late-blooming A’s slugger Mark Canha) has a chance to be really special. Of course, none of those players are still in Miami.
  • Mets: 2010 (50.5 bWAR) – Seventh overall pick Matt Harvey was briefly the ace the Mets hoped they were adding in 2010. As it turns out, Jacob deGrom (9th round) had a lot more staying power atop their rotation.
  • Nationals: 2009 (44.9 bWAR) – First overall pick Stephen Strasburg has more than made good on that selection, culminating in a World Series MVP effort in 2019. The 2009 class also brought in a handful of role players, including Drew Storen and Michael Taylor.
  • Padres: 2007  (38.9 bWAR) – Another team for whom the top player simply got away, the crown jewel of the Padres’ 2007 class was Corey Kluber (4th round). Obviously, even San Diego didn’t him expect him to go on to win a pair of Cy Young Awards.
  • Phillies: 2014 (24.2 bWAR) – There were some tough results for the Phillies on draft day in recent seasons, but 2014 looks to be a notable exception. Aaron Nola went seventh overall and has emerged as a high-level starter, while Rhys Hoskins (fifth round) looks like the Phils’ long-term answer at first base.
  • Pirates: 2011 (29.7 bWAR) – The Pirates’ 2011 class is almost exclusively about the contributions of first overall pick Gerrit Cole, but he obviously reached his peak after being traded to Houston. Josh Bell (2nd round) looked to have turned the corner at the plate in the first half of 2019.
  • Reds: 2007 (43.1 bWAR) – The Reds found three future everyday players in the 2007 class. Todd Frazier (supplemental first-round), Zack Cozart (2nd round) and Devin Mesoraco (1st round) all went on to become productive players in Cincinnati.
  • Rockies: 2009 (47.4 bWAR) – The Rockies graduated six players from the 2009 class to the big leagues, although only one proved a smashing success. Finding a player of Nolan Arenado’s caliber in the second round makes for a great draft even if the rest of the players taken underwhelm.

Quick Hits: NPB, Harvey, Astros

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Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball is set to open its regular season June 19. Initially, games will be played without fans in attendance, but that may not be the case the entire summer. Former MLB reliever Frank Herrmann, now a member of NPB’s Chiba Lotte Marines, tells David Laurila of Fangraphs the league has discussed allowing some number of fans into ballparks as soon as July 10, with hopes of incrementally increasing attendance moving forward if safety permits. The NPB plans to run a 120-game condensed season, down from its typical 143-game schedule.

Turning our attention to the United States…

  • As we approach the ten-year anniversary of the 2010 MLB entry draft, Ken Davidoff and Dan Martin of the New York Post look back at the Mets’ selection of Matt Harvey. Then-GM Omar Minaya credits former scouting director Rudy Terrasas for staying on the right-hander even as he slumped through a difficult sophomore season at the University of North Carolina. Minaya says the club had scouts in attendance for every one of Harvey’s starts as a junior, allowing them to feel comfortable enough to select him seventh overall when his performance rebounded that season. The story of Harvey’s meteoric rise to stardom and his equally rapid fall from that peak has been told many times. Nevertheless, Mets’ fans in particular will want to check out the full piece for an entertaining look back at the caliber of player Harvey was in his prime.
  • Astros GM James Click tells Brian McTaggart of MLB.com that this year’s shortened, five-round draft forces teams more than ever to draft the best prospects on their board, rather than worrying about balancing out their minor-league systems. That’s particularly true for Houston, who lost their first and second round picks this season (and next) as punishment for their sign-stealing violations. “Even if you end up drafting four very similar players, you should be able to find playing time for them at some place and at some point,” Click tells McTaggart. Even in a typical season, MLB teams almost always select the player whom they believe to be the best available talent (subject to signability) in the early rounds of the draft. Drafting for need doesn’t make the same impact in baseball, where prospects are often years away from the majors and face high rates of attrition along the way, as it might in sports like football or basketball.

Replacing Legends

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If you trust Braves’ third base coach Ron Washington, Austin Riley has a long and bright future ahead of him with the Atlanta Braves, per The Athletic’s David O’Brien. Said Washington, “He’s a very, very special kid. He’s on that special level with Ozzie (Albies) and (Ronald) Acuńa (Jr.) and all those young guys. He’s on that special level with them.”

Given Washington’s stellar reputation as an infield instructor, his word carries some weight. He goes on in O’Brien’s article to laud not only Riley’s long-term future with the bat, but with the glove as well, calling Riley “a tremendous third baseman.”

While it’s certainly encouraging for Braves’ fans to hear Washington speak so highly of Riley after an up-and-down rookie season, the path ahead is not without obstacles. For starters, he hasn’t locked down his spot in the starting lineup. All accounts suggest he’s going to have to earn his keep while being pushed at third by Johan Camargo. After his first month of big-league action, it would have seemed unfathomable that Riley wouldn’t have the 2020 third base job locked down, but Camargo remains very much in the running, despite struggling himself in 2019. Camargo’s year was worth -0.6 rWAR after hitting only .233/.279/.384 over 248 plate appearances. He’s played much better in the past (4.4 fWAR from 2017 to 2018), and the Braves appear confident he can at the very least hold the line for a year.

Should Camargo get the bulk of playing time at third, Riley could get at-bats as a designated hitter –  at least in theory. But O’Brien notes that the scuttlebutt out of Atlanta pegs Marcell Ozuna as the likeliest option to see heavy minutes as a potential DH. Makes sense with Ronald Acuna Jr., Ender Inciarte, and Nick Markakis on hand to handle the outfield rotation. Riley himself could even see some minutes out on the grass depending on how things shake out.

But the real question at hand here is this: is Austin Riley the third baseman of the future for the Atlanta Braves? Ron Washington certainly seems to think so. If we trust Washington’s eye for defensive talent and assume Riley can stick at third base (or even become a plus defender), the question is whether his approach at the dish can improve enough to take advantage of his otherworldly power.

After all, Riley’s power numbers last year were excellent. He managed a .471 SLG with 18 home runs in just 274 at bats. His isolated power was .245 ISO, well above average and a number you’d hope for out of a middle-of-the-order bat. For context, Acuna Jr. walked away from 2019 with a .238 ISO. A full season at Riley’s mark would put him among the top-40 mashers in the league by isolated power. His power plays.

But even with those numbers, Riley’s total offensive contribution amounted to 14 percent below league average by wRC+. He needs to round out the rest of his game – and that starts with cutting down strikeouts. Riley’s walk-to-strikeout numbers are not anywhere near where they need to be for everyday reps (5.4 BB%, 36.4 K%). Both numbers need to see significant positive regression. The good news is, Riley looked the part in spring training, where signs pointed to Riley being able to make the necessary adjustments.

Third base is a loaded position for Atlanta – in terms of poignancy – and Riley has big shoes to fill. Putting aside the big picture pressure of manning the spot once belonging to the legendary Chipper Jones, even recent history has set a high bar for Riley. Last season, Josh Donaldson returned to All-Star form with a .259/.379/.521 line, 37 rainmaking bombs, 96 runs, 94 RBIs, 132 wRC+, good for 4.9 fWAR/6.0 rWAR. Good luck replicating those numbers out the gate.

Elsewhere in the NL East, another legend moved westward after a memorable 2019. Anthony Rendon gave the Nationals seven underrated seasons at the hot corner before joining the Los Angeles Angels this winter. We could talk all day about Rendon’s performance this postseason, but those in Washington, Rendon-as-superstar was old hat: He’s been a 6+ fWAR performer for three seasons running. Beyond his consistency, there’s simply no replacing the slow-heartbeat clutch-hitting Rendon provided the Nats on their World Series run – but someone is going to have to try.

Enter Carter Kieboom. Rendon’s nominal heir apparent – at 22-years-old – is about half a year younger than Riley, and he comes sporting a shinier prospect pedigree. He’s the 21st ranked prospect overall by MLB.com and Fangraphs, while Baseball America puts him as the 15th overall prospect (admittedly, Riley wasn’t far off, topping out as Baseball America’s 22nd ranked prospect before last season).

Much like Riley, Kieboom’s role at the outset of whatever season comes next is TBD. There’s an even greater chance the Nats roll with veterans Starlin Castro, Howie Kendrick and Asdrubal Cabrera sharing at-bats between third and second. At least, that was the plan had the season begun on time. Depending on how live baseball in the pipeline shakes out, the Nats might prefer Kieboom break camp with the team just to ensure he’s continuing his development via live baseball. With a potential DH in play, there may even be enough at-bats for the Nats to accommodate playing time for Kieboom and their veteran triumvirate.

Also like Riley, Kieboom wasn’t overly impressive in his first taste of big-league action. Apologists have plenty of cause to support Kieboom even after hitting just .128/.209/.282 over an 11 game stint early in the year (which included 4 errors at shortstop). Reason being: he wasn’t ready. Kieboom’s April promotion was a case of injury-depleted desperation. The Nats were in a bind with Trea Turner on the shelf. Wilmer Difo wasn’t getting the job done as Turner’s understudy, and the Nats were off to a slow start (11-12 at the time of his debut).

The small sample hasn’t done much to lessen the optimism over Kieboom’s potential, especially after he raked for a line of .303/.409/.493 for Triple-A Fresno. The shortstop-by-nature has a long-term future at third or second in Washington, though the suggestion has been that his power will play enough to handle third, and the Nats’ other top young bat has spent most of his career at second (Luis Garcia).

Riley is about a half-season ahead of Keiboom’s trajectory, giving us more familiarity with his game at the pro level. But for comparison’s sake, Riley hit .293/.366/.626 in 44 games at Triple-A in 2019. They’re both former first-rounders (Riley #41 overall in 2015, Kieboom #28 overall in 2016), but their draft status won’t help as each looks to fill the shoes of franchise legends.

And yet, they’re not the same. Riley is a hulking light-breaker who’s defensively playing up to stick at third base. His frame is redolent of a young Ryan Zimmerman before Mr. Nat made the move across the diamond to first. Kieboom’s not a small man himself (6’2″, 190 lbs), but some scouts thought he could stick at shortstop, and he brings a contact-oriented approach. He can stroke it to all fields with potential plus power and a track record of taking walks and putting the ball in play. They’re different molds as far as third baseman go, but neither has much leeway as they try to establish themselves in the majors. Not with both the Braves and Nationals looking to contend in a season that could be as short as 50-some games.

Whenever they claim regular roles, Riley and Keiboom will be two exciting young talents to track in the NL East. The Phillies’ Alec Bohm may very well throw his hat into this ring in the very near future as well (feel free to make your case for Bohm in the comments). Bohm is another former first-rounder (third overall in 2018), but he’s spent less time in the minors and is actually older than both Riley and Kieboom. Team conditions aside, let’s say you’ve got a hole at third base and the right to poach one third base prospect. Who do you want? (link to poll for Trade Rumors mobile app users).

Who Would You Rather Have As Your Third Baseman For The Next Six Seasons?
Austin Riley 66.63% (3,069 votes)
Carter Kieboom 33.37% (1,537 votes)
Total Votes: 4,606

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