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Archives for 2020

7 AL Central Pitchers Looking For Bounce-Back Years

By Connor Byrne | March 9, 2020 at 6:59pm CDT

We took a look last week at American League Central hitters who are seeking bounce-back seasons in 2020. Let’s shift gears to the pitching side…

Carlos Carrasco, RHP, Indians:

Carrasco was one of the top starters in the game from 2015-18, but a frightening leukemia diagnosis shelved him for three months last season. Thankfully, Carrasco was able to return in September, functioning as a reliever in all 11 appearances then. The plan is for Carrasco to return toward the top of the Indians’ rotation this season, but he has battled much less serious health problems – mild hip and elbow issues – this spring. A return to Carrasco’s usual production would be especially welcome for the Indians, who traded Corey Kluber in the offseason and will go without the injured Mike Clevinger for a while.

Jhoulys Chacin, RHP, Twins:

It was only two seasons ago that Chacin was an integral member of the Brewers’ rotation, as he amassed 192 2/3 innings of 3.50 ERA/4.03 FIP ball for the then-division champions. But last year represented a massive decline for Chacin, who took the ball for the Brewers on Opening Day but fared so poorly throughout the season that they released him in August. Chacin wound up finishing the season with the Red Sox, though that experiment went haywire for Boston. All said, the 32-year-old recorded a 6.01 ERA/5.88 FIP, walked over four batters per nine and put up his lowest groundball rate (37.5 percent) since 2012. His hard- and soft-contact rates went in troubling directions in the process. However, as a team with a bit of uncertainty in its staff (at least until Michael Pineda and Rich Hill come back), the Twins may gamble on putting Chacin in their season-opening rotation after signing him to a non-guaranteed contract during the winter.

Reynaldo Lopez, RHP, White Sox:

If we’re to believe fWAR (2.3), Lopez’s 2019 was the same as his 2018  – respectable. On the other hand, his run prevention went way downhill. Lopez was quite durable, accumulating 184 innings, but he ranked second to last among qualified starters in ERA (5.38) and FIP (5.04). Like many, the home run bug bit him last season, as he allowed them on 14 percent of fly balls after surrendering HRs around the 9 percent mark in prior years. There are still some positives to take from the 26-year-old Lopez’s most recent performance, though. He continued to average 95.5 on his fastball, increased his strikeouts, upped his swinging-strike rate, and saw his numbers improve dramatically in the second half of the campaign.

Kelvin Herrera, RHP, White Sox:

The White Sox haven’t gotten much value from the once-dominant Herrera, whom they inked to a two-year, $18MM guarantee entering last season. Herrera, trying to rebound from the Lisfranc injury he suffered with the Nationals the prior year, posted easily his highest ERA (6.14) and FIP (4.58) over the course of 51 1/3 frames in 2019. While his K/9 (9.29) spiked compared to his 7.71 from the previous season, his BB/9 shot from 2.03 to 4.03 at the same time. That said, the hard-throwing Herrera was the victim of some poor fortune. His hard- and soft-contact percentages took favorable turns, yet hitters still managed a .347 batting average on balls in play against Herrera, while his strand rate checked in at just 65.9 percent.

Trevor Rosenthal, RHP, Royals:

The hard-throwing Rosenthal was often a a lights-out late-game force in St. Louis from 2012-17; however, he underwent Tommy John surgery late in the last season of those seasons and hasn’t returned to form since. Rosenthal missed all of 2018 and returned last year (as a member of the Nationals and then the Tigers) as someone whose control abandoned him. He walked an incredible 26 batters in only 15 1/3 innings, also yielding 23 earned runs on 11 hits in that span. As a result, the soon-to-be 30-year-old settled for a minor league deal with the rebuilding Royals over the winter. While it’s tough to put much stock in spring training numbers, it’s encouraging that the flamethrowing Rosenthal has notched four scoreless innings with eight strikeouts and zero walks during the exhibition season. Perhaps he and/or fellow buy-low reliever Greg Holland will regain relevance in KC this year.

Mike Montgomery, LHP, Royals:

Montgomery was a useful swingman – even a 2016 World Series hero – for the Cubs earlier in his career, but last season knocked his career off track. He divided it between Chicago and Kansas City, which acquired him in July, and logged personal-worst numbers in ERA (4.95) and FIP (5.52) over 91 innings. Significant increases in hard-hit rate and home run-to-fly ball percentage, not to mention a sizable decrease in soft contact against, all haunted Montgomery a season ago. Nevertheless, the 30-year-old looks like a lock to begin 2020 in the Royals’ rotation.

Alex Wilson, RHP, Tigers:

Despite a dearth of strikeouts, Wilson was at times a low-ERA reliever in his first Tigers tenure from 2015-18, thanks in part to above-average control. The Brewers expected something similar when they signed him to a major league pact going into last season. Instead, however, Wilson delivered a mere 11 1/3 innings for the club, yielding 12 earned runs on 15 hits and an uncharacteristic nine walks. Wilson ultimately spent most of the season as a member of the Brewers’ Triple-A club, with which he produced positive results, but the organization released him in August. He’s now back with Detroit on a minors pact and trying to earn a spot in its bullpen.

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MLB To Close Clubhouses To Media Over Coronavirus

By Jeff Todd | March 9, 2020 at 5:16pm CDT

Major League Baseball will initiate a major change in its standard operating practices in response to the spread of the coronavirus. Per Jeff Passan of ESPN.com (Twitter links), clubhouses will be closed to media.

Just how long this standard will apply remains to be seen, though there’s no indication it’s anything but a temporary measure. Presumably, it’ll depend upon the course of the worrisome disease. The move comes on the heels of similar actions from the NBA and NHL.

It’s something of a partial measure that relates only to the safety of team personnel. There’s no reason to believe that media interactions are any more dangerous than the many other person-to-person interactions that players engage in on a daily basis. The league also has plans to limit travel and clubhouse access for certain team employees.

There’s some evident incongruity in this action. It will not offer any protection to fans and will not help guard against the broader spread of the coronavirus through the staging of large-scale events. Passan says that the league will continue to hold Spring Training and (ultimately) regular-season games. Those plans remain subject to change, on both a universal and situational basis.

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Indians, Francisco Lindor Halt Extension Talks

By Jeff Todd | March 9, 2020 at 4:24pm CDT

Any hope of a spring extension agreement between the Indians and star shortstop Francisco Lindor now seems to be gone. The 26-year-old tells Jason Lloyd of The Athletic (subscription link) that he and the team have “set aside” their talks on a long-term deal for the time being.

While it seems substantial talks have taken place, they obviously didn’t gain much traction. Lindor says that the club did not make an offer up to or over the $300MM level. He recently informed the front office that he would prefer to focus on the season ahead.

Just where the Cleveland organization was willing to go isn’t clear, but Lindor doesn’t seem inclined to take a big discount. He tells Lloyd that a contract along the lines of the recent Christian Yelich deal — $188.5MM of new money — wouldn’t hold appeal. And Lindor says he’s “very aware” of “what’s fair for both sides,” because he has personally “studied it.”

Lindor says he’s not bitter about the situation and remains interested in remaining in Cleveland over the long haul. But as Lloyd explains, that’s harder than ever to imagine.

With no evident possibility of a spring deal — barring a renewed pursuit by the club at a higher dollar amount, perhaps — the focus will now be on the summer trade market. If the Indians aren’t in a competitive position, they’ll surely at least entertain offers on Lindor.

All of the impediments to an agreement have long been evident, so this news doesn’t come as a surprise. But there had been some hope that the sides might figure out a way to line up, as both expressed an interest in doing so.

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Cleveland Guardians Newsstand Francisco Lindor

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Japan’s NPB Postpones Start Of Season

By Jeff Todd | March 9, 2020 at 3:38pm CDT

Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball has announced that it will delay the start of the 2020 season owing to the worldwide coronavirus outbreak. Veteran reporter Jim Allen has the news from across the Pacific.

For the time being, Japan’s top league will push its opening date back into mid-April. It had been scheduled to kick off on March 20th. Whether further delay might be contemplated isn’t clear.

League commissioner Atsushi Saito framed the decision was an imperative. “We must protect the players, staff, families, but no one more so than the fans,” he said. “We must protect the cultural legacy of pro baseball.”

While NPB’s Spring Training contests have been taking place without fans in attendance, MLB’s Grapefruit and Cactus League action has proceeded as usual. The league has instituted some policies to help limit the potential for coronavirus transmission to or between players and others actually employed in or around the game. But fans have been left to make their own decisions.

By all indications from the scientific community, the questions facing the MLB commissioner’s office aren’t going to recede anytime soon. The dangerous Covid-19 virus is believed to have spread more broadly than positive tests reflect, with potential for exponential growth. Social distancing measures, including the avoidance of large public gatherings, represent a key tactic for slowing the transmission of the disease.

We have already seen several major events cancelled in the United States. The National Basketball Association has contemplated staging games without fans present. It seems that MLB will at minimum need to prepare for potential mitigation efforts — whether or not entered voluntarily or dictated by governmental action.

As Saito puts it, “if you have games you have to make a maximum effort.” NPB determined that the necessary level of precaution was not feasible. It remains to be seen how the matter will be handled in North America.

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Rays Have Opened Extension Talks With Glasnow, Meadows

By Steve Adams | March 9, 2020 at 1:32pm CDT

The Rays have approached Tyler Glasnow’s representatives at Wasserman and Austin Meadows’ representatives at Excel Sports about potential long-term deals for the pair of burgeoning stars, reports Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times.

There’s no indication that talks with either party have progressed beyond the preliminary stage, but the reaction from the pair is notable. Both say they’re open to such an arrangement, with Meadows saying he “definitely would be open to something like that” but Glasnow taking a bit more reserved approach. While the right-hander acknowledged that he’d listen to offers, he also made clear that he doesn’t want to “sell [himself] short” and that he has “no problem going year-to-year.”

Looking at the two as separate cases, Glasnow’s situation is a bit trickier. The right-hander was utterly dominant when healthy in 2019, pitching to a 1.78 ERA with averages of 11.3 strikeouts, 2.1 walks and 0.59 home runs allowed per nine innings pitched. Unfortunately for both him and the Rays, a forearm strain limited the towering righty to 60 2/3 innings.

Glasnow was one of the game’s premier pitching prospects for years and, since being traded to the Rays, has broken out with 116 2/3 innings of 2.94 ERA ball and nearly 11 punchouts per nine frames. He doesn’t have a long track record in the Majors, though, and his platform season was noticeably light on workload. Throw in that he’s a Super Two player who’s already set to earn $2.05MM in 2020, and it becomes a bit muddier when trying to determine what the two sides might deem a fair price point.

For context, Glasnow’s own teammate, Blake Snell, holds the record for largest contract ever signed by a pitcher with between two and three years of big league service time. Snell signed a five-year, $50MM contract just last spring, but he wasn’t a Super Two player at the time of that agreement. He was, however, fresh off a Cy Young win, which makes his case perhaps something of an outlier. The second-largest deal ever inked by a two-plus pitcher was German Marquez, who landed a five-year, $43MM deal (also last winter). Marquez wasn’t a Super Two player but tossed thrice as many innings as Glasnow in his platform season. Luis Severino was a Super Two with two-plus years of service time when he signed a four-year, $40MM deal with a club option for a fifth season in February 2019, but he was projected to earn more than double the $2.05MM to which Glasnow agreed for the upcoming season (by virtue of his 2017-18 workload).

The unique nature of Glasnow’s situation and his stated willingness to go year-to-year might make an agreement tough to hammer out. A healthy and productive season out of the righty, after all, would lead to a substantial raise. Mike Foltynewicz played out the 2018 season as a Super Two player on a $2.2MM salary and, after 183 innings of 2.85 ERA ball, saw a 149 percent raise to $5.475MM for the 2019 campaign. Even with some regression in terms of his ERA, Glasnow could be looking at similar financial upside if he can rack up the innings. There’s also virtually no circumstance in which he’d be in for a pay cut in 2021, so he’s looking at a minimum of $4.1MM over the next two seasons as it is. At the very least, he has a bit of security on his side now that he’s into arbitration.

Meadows is in a different situation. The 24-year-old has a year and 74 days of service, which places him two full seasons away from reaching arbitration. Meadows slashed .291/.364/.558 with 33 home runs, 29 doubles, seven triples and 12 steals in 591 plate appearances during a breakout 2019 campaign with the Rays. In doing so, he cemented himself as a fixture in the lineup for the foreseeable future. The Rays’ interest in keeping him cost-controlled is plenty sensible, as Tampa Bay has routinely had to move on from its players as their salaries escalate in arbitration (Tommy Pham and Corey Dickerson are recent examples in the outfield). That looks particularly likely to be the case with Meadows iff he goes year-to-year, as his power numbers would play quite well when he does reach arbitration in the 2021-22 offseason.

Looking for some historical comps, Christian Yelich’s first extension — seven years and $49.57MM — is the largest ever signed by a player with between and two years of service. Ronald Acuna Jr. secured a $100MM payday with less than a year of service time, although that deal was an outlier and required him surrendering four would-be free-agent seasons in the process. Something closer to the first Yelich extension is a likelier base point, but that deal is five years old, so Meadows’ camp could aim to set a new precedent.

In the event that one or both do put pen to paper, the Rays’ 2020 payroll figures to be largely unaffected. Tampa Bay is set to again field one of the lowest-cost (but most-talented) rosters in baseball, with a projected Opening Day mark of just under $71MM. The Rays have about $34MM in guaranteed money on the books both in 2021 and in 2022, though, and that number dips to $24MM by the 2023 season. Fitting contract extensions for Meadows and/or Glasnow into the long-term budget shouldn’t be much of a reach — if the involved parties can years and dollars.

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Justin Verlander Shut Down Due To Lat Strain

By Steve Adams | March 9, 2020 at 12:42pm CDT

12:42pm: Verlander himself sounds as though he’s expecting to open the season on the injured list (Twitter link via Rome): “I would say it would probably take a miracle for me to be back by Opening Day.”

12:07pm: The Astros have shut right-hander Justin Verlander down for the time being due to a “mild lat strain,” general manager James Click tells reporters (Twitter link via Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle). There’s no timetable for when Verlander will resume throwing yet, and the organization is uncertain as to whether Verlander will be ready for Opening Day.

There were far worse potential outcomes as Houston fans braced for the worst when Verlander exited yesterday’s start and went in for an MRI. Indeed, Click indicated that, “By and large, the news we got today was on the positive side.” While any injury to a starter of Verlander’s caliber is problematic, the lack of any tearing or structural damage in his arm surely came as a sigh of relief. That said, it’s still a discouraging development for a team with mounting questions on the pitching staff. If Verlander proves unable to take the ball come Opening Day, one would imagine that fellow veteran Zack Greinke would get the nod in the season opener. But beyond Greinke, the Astros are looking at Tommy John returnee Lance McCullers Jr. and the relatively inexperienced Jose Urquidy in the third and fourth slots in the rotation.

Presently, Austin Pruitt and Josh James are the presumptive front-runners for the fifth spot in the rotation, but both could be start games early in the season in the event of an IL stint for Verlander. Alternatively, the ’Stros could look to use an opener early in the year. Click, it should be noted, was hired out away from the Rays earlier this winter — the organization that pioneered the opener tactic at the Major League level.

One in-house alternative, right-hander Rogelio Armenteros, has already been shut down due to elbow discomfort. Brad Peacock has yet to throw in a game this spring, as he’s been slowed by neck pain. He’s been slated for bullpen duties anyhow. Other options could include right-hander Cy Sneed or lefties Framber Valdez and Cionel Perez. However you want to judge the race for the final few spots, an Astros rotation that until very recently was a legitimate powerhouse now has more questions than answers. And at this point, it’s not as if Houston can simply go out into the free-agent market and plug a starter into their staff. Jason Vargas, Clay Buchholz and Andrew Cashner are among the unsigned names of note, but Opening Day is a mere 15 days away; none from that bunch would be ready in time.

Perhaps Click and his staff will explore other avenues, but no one should expect a proven big league starter to be on the move at this point of Spring Training. And with the Astros about $23MM over the luxury tax threshold as it is, they don’t seem likely to take on any sort of meaningful salary. Waiver claims and deals for veterans who opt out of minor league pacts elsewhere could help to replenish the depth, though, and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the club make any moves along those lines.

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Houston Astros Newsstand Justin Verlander

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MLBTR Video: Teams Set The Salary For Young MLB Stars

By Tim Dierkes | March 9, 2020 at 11:11am CDT

Why will young MLB stars like Juan Soto and Jack Flaherty barely make more than the league minimum salary in 2020? MLBTR’s Jeff Todd explains contract renewals for pre-arbitration players in today’s video:

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NL Central Notes: Pirates, Lorenzen, Chatwood

By Steve Adams | March 9, 2020 at 10:27am CDT

The Pirates were “behind the times” in their approach to developing pitchers under the previous front-office/coaching regime, right-hander Tyler Glasnow opines in a fascinating interview with Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. Glasnow details the manner in which the Pirates emphasized pitching down and inside even as the rest of the league evolved to attacking the top of the strike zone with four-seamers and ramping up the usage of breaking balls. The right-hander calls the Pirates’ approach “a good strategy for [2013-15]” but an outdated one in the current era of data-driven approaches to pitching and game-planning. Glasnow explains how he began working at the top of the strike zone on his own toward the end of his time as a Pirate — he was never approached by the club about doing so — and that was the first thing the Rays encouraged him to do following the trade. The interview is rife with interesting (and, if you’re a Pirates fan, frustrating) quotes from Glasnow and is well worth a full look regardless of which team you follow.

Taking a look elsewhere in the division…

  • The “two-way player” criteria established by Major League Baseball within this winter’s slate of rule changes puts National League clubs at a disadvantage, writes Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (subscription required). The rules, which stipulate that a pitcher who wishes to gain two-way designation must start 20 games as a position player (with three plate appearances per start), appear to have been written with Shohei Ohtani in mind (and perhaps Brendan McKay) but don’t allow for someone like the Reds’ Michael Lorenzen to easily attain that status. Lorenzen played 29 games in center last season, including six starts. In two of those instances, he played every inning of an extra-inning game in the outfield, and in another he came in to throw two innings of relief before returning to center. Lorenzen called the criteria “obnoxious” in chatting with Rosenthal, who notes that the Reds are among the teams that have approached the league about the issue. Over the past two seasons, Lorenzen has batted .241/.302/.468 with five home runs in 87 plate appearances. He logged 89 innings in center field last season after serving as a frequent pinch-hitter a year prior in 2018.
  • Cubs skipper David Ross has at least considered utilizing righty Tyler Chatwood as a multi-inning reliever, he tells Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times. Ross still calls Chatwood the favorite for the fifth slot in the rotation, but he also points to Chatwood hitting 99 mph out of the bullpen and the fact that he pitched in every inning while functioning in various roles last season. Ross likens Chatwood to Kenta Maeda, suggesting that he could function as a starter for much of the season before shifting to a multi-inning relief option late in the year and potentially into the postseason. If Chatwood once again struggles as a starter early in the season, it seems likely the organization will shift him back into that role and look to alternative options in the rotation.
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Justin Verlander Undergoes MRI Following Triceps Injury

By TC Zencka | March 9, 2020 at 9:45am CDT

March 9: Verlander underwent an MRI to evaluate the issue, tweets Chris McCosky of the Detroit News, but the Astros have yet to receive the results.

March 8, 2:50pm: Dusty Baker shed some light on Verlander’s exit, saying he experienced right triceps soreness, per McTaggart. His removal was precautionary.

2:06pm: Justin Verlander exited his spring start two innings early today, per MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart. He threw two scoreless innings, but left to undergo medical testing.

It’s unclear at this time what particular issue Verlander is dealing with, though he’s been plagued with a strained right groin throughout spring training. Neither Verlander nor the Astros gave any indication as to the severity of Verlander’s discomfort. Presumably, an update will be provided shortly.

Among the many issues that could derail the Astros 2020 season, any hiccups at the top of the rotation might be the most worrying. With a host of less-established candidates filling the void at the back end of the rotation, Verlander and co-ace Zack Greinke are the only guaranteed quality starters currently employed in Houston. Lance McCullers Jr. slots in as the number three, but the native Floridian is coming off a lost 2019, and he’s never made more than 22 starts in a season.

Verlander’s injury may turn out to be nothing, but this is the risk in pinning rotation stability on a 37-year-old Verlander and 36-year-old Greinke. Granted, Verlander and Greinke show no signs of slowing down after combining for 13.3 pitching bWAR in 2019, and given the amount of adversity sure to confront the 2020 Astros, a healthy Verlander and Greinke still provide the surest chance to rise above.

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Offseason In Review: Miami Marlins

By Mark Polishuk | March 9, 2020 at 6:59am CDT

While the Marlins are far from pushing for contention, they did spend some money to add proven veteran talent to their roster.

Major League Signings

  • Corey Dickerson, OF: Two years, $17.5MM
  • Brandon Kintzler, RHP: One year, $3.25MM (includes $250K buyout of $4MM club option for 2021)
  • Francisco Cervelli, C: One year, $2MM
  • Matt Joyce, OF: One year, $1.5MM
  • Yimi Garcia, RHP: One year, $1.1MM
  • Total spend: $25.35MM

Trades And Claims

  • Acquired INF Jonathan Villar from the Orioles for minor league LHP Easton Lucas
  • Acquired LHP Stephen Tarpley from the Yankees for minor league 3B James Nelson and cash considerations
  • Acquired minor league INF Angeudis Santos from the Red Sox for RHP Austin Brice
  • Acquired minor league OF Diowill Burgos from the Cardinals for OF Austin Dean
  • Acquired minor league C Jose Estrada from the Angels for RHP Kyle Keller
  • Claimed 1B Jesus Aguilar off waivers from the Rays
  • Selected RHP Sterling Sharp from the Nationals in the Rule 5 Draft

Notable Minor League Signings

  • Matt Kemp, Brad Boxberger, Sean Rodriguez, Josh A. Smith, Ryan Lavarnway, Pat Venditte, Ryan Cook

Notable Losses

  • Starlin Castro, Wei-Yin Chen, Jarlin Garcia, JT Riddle, Tayron Guerrero, Tyler Kinley, Hector Noesi, Bryan Holaday, Jose Quijada, Brian Moran, Martin Prado (retired), Curtis Granderson (retired)

In something of a role reversal, the Marlins took an undesirable contract off a rebuilding team’s hands when they landed Jonathan Villar in what was essentially a salary dump for the Orioles.  Villar ended up avoiding arbitration by agreeing with Miami on an $8.2MM salary for the 2020 season — lower than both the $10.4MM MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz’s projection model forecast for Villar, and also the roughly $9MM or so that Swartz personally predicted in his closer examination of Villar’s rather unique case.

Even at $8.2MM, Villar was deemed too expensive by a Baltimore team that is stripping its roster down in the early stages of a lengthy rebuild, leaving the Marlins in position to add a quality second baseman coming off a 4.0 fWAR season.  Or, I should say, a potentially former second baseman who will be seeing some time in center field, as the Marlins will try Villar on the outfield grass to free up a position for prospect Isan Diaz.  It could end up being a short-lived audition depending on Villar’s glovework or if Diaz (who had only a .566 OPS over 201 MLB plate appearances in 2019) continues to struggle against Major League pitching.  However, considering that former top prospect Lewis Brinson has also yet to break out at the big league level, there’s no harm for Miami in seeing if Villar can help their center field situation.  If so, it could only enhance his trade value at the deadline, as Villar is only under contract through the end of the season.

The Fish added another veteran regular in Corey Dickerson, who was signed to a $17.5MM deal that covers the 2020-21 seasons.  The outfield was a prime area of need for Miami this winter, as such names as Yasiel Puig, Kole Calhoun, Avisail Garcia, and — somewhat surprisingly — even Nick Castellanos and Marcell Ozuna were considered.  The fact that the Marlins at least checked in on the latter two names could indicate that the team had at least some willingness to really expand their payroll, or it could be that they were simply doing due diligence to see if either Castellanos or Ozuna were willing to lower their asking price.  (As it happened, Ozuna did end up signing a one-year deal, but with the reigning NL East champion Braves.)

In the end, it will be Dickerson who mans left field at Marlins Park, as the 30-year-old looks to rebound from an injury-plagued 2019 campaign.  Dickerson was still very productive when healthy, batting .304/.341/.565 over 279 PA with the Pirates and Phillies, and anything close to those numbers would greatly boost a Marlins lineup that was arguably the worst in baseball last season.

In other offensive upgrades, the Marlins claimed Jesus Aguilar in the hopes that he can regain his 35-homer stroke from the 2018 season, and also signed Matt Joyce to share playing time in right field.  Garrett Cooper will see plenty of at-bats as either a first baseman or right fielder, with Aguilar or Joyce (or utilityman Jon Berti, or younger outfield options like Magneuris Sierra or Harold Ramirez) in the mix to handle the other position.

With Jorge Alfaro perhaps questionable for Opening Day due to an oblique injury, Miami’s signing of Francisco Cervelli looks like an even more important move.  Cervelli could end up getting a bit more time behind the plate than expected if Alfaro is on the injured list, though when Alfaro is back, Cervelli will slide into a backup role and offer a bit more seasoned glovework than the somewhat defensively erratic Alfaro.

Cervelli isn’t far removed from being one of the game’s better-hitting catchers, which fits the model of Miami’s approach to their position player acquisitions.  All of these players were solid-to-very good just last year (Joyce), as recently as 2018 (Aguilar, Cervelli, minor league signing Matt Kemp) or in both seasons (Dickerson, Villar).  Should the Marlins get some in-form production from the majority of these new faces and get continued improvement from the likes of Cooper, Alfaro, and Brian Anderson, Miami’s offense could take some pitchers by surprise.

The revamped bullpen also offers some upside, as Brandon Kintzler was signed to be the likely first choice at closer after the veteran righty’s solid 2019 season with the Cubs.  Kintzler is a few years removed from his last closing experience at the back of the Twins’ bullpen, but he’ll handle the ninth behind a core group that includes Ryne Stanek, minor league signing and former All-Star closer Brad Boxberger, and Yimi Garcia, inked to a big league deal after the Dodgers non-tendered him.  Garcia is perhaps the most intriguing of the newcomers, as his peripheral numbers hint at some real talent, were it not for the right-hander’s alarming propensity for allowing home runs.  Pitching at Marlins Park could help that issue to some extent, and if Garcia can more fully limit the damage, he could be something of a steal.

While this winter’s expenditures count as something of a spending spree by Marlins standards, they aren’t doling out any new money.  Villar’s $8.2MM and Miami’s $25.35MM in offseason free agents contracts just about match up to the 2019 salaries of several veterans who are no longer on the books (Martin Prado, Starlin Castro, Curtis Granderson, Neil Walker).  As per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, the Marlins’ projected $68.925MM Opening Day payroll is actually lower than their $71.9MM figure from last season’s opener.

In short, the Marlins might not have done enough this winter to escape the ire of the players’ union.  The MLB Players Association has filed an amended grievance against the Marlins (as well as the Pirates and the Rays) for their use of revenue-sharing funds in both the 2018-19 and 2017-18 offseasons.  Given that none of those clubs broke the bank over the last few months, it wouldn’t be surprising to see the 2019-20 offseason also added to this grievance.

It was no surprise that Miami didn’t spend big this winter, as the organization has been very clear about its intentions to build around young talent and resist the quick-fix splurges that often marked the Jeffrey Loria era.  It still might be a couple of years before the Marlins feel they have enough of a core group in place to ramp up spending as the White Sox and Reds did this offseason.

It’s a sign of progress, however, that the scorched-earth phase of the rebuild seems to be over.  Villar, Kintzler, or other veterans on short-term deals could well end up being moved at the trade deadline, but it doesn’t seem like younger talent is on the move.  Despite interest from multiple teams, the Marlins held onto controllable rotation arms like Caleb Smith, Sandy Alcantara, Pablo Lopez, and Jose Urena.  Miami seems ready to find out if the young players it already has in the fold could end up being part of that next Marlins winner, and it will be intriguing to see which of the pitchers and position players take that next step in 2020.

2020 Season Outlook

Will the Marlins lose 105 games again?  The NL East (and pretty much the entire National League) still looks quite competitive, but it seems on paper as if the Fish have done enough to get back down to double digits in the loss column.  Fangraphs projects “only” 95.5 losses for Miami in 2020, which counts as some small victory, but it would still be a big surprise if Miami escaped another last-place finish.

How would you grade the Marlins’ offseason moves?  (Link for app users.)

How would you grade the Marlins' offseason?
B 36.17% (1,298 votes)
C 35.41% (1,271 votes)
D 14.21% (510 votes)
F 7.22% (259 votes)
A 6.99% (251 votes)
Total Votes: 3,589

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2019-20 Offseason in Review MLBTR Originals Miami Marlins

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