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Enter The MLBTR Free Agent Prediction Contest

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It’s time for the MLB Trade Rumors Free Agent Prediction Contest!  Click here to enter your picks for the destinations for our top 50 free agents.  The deadline for entry Friday, November 20th at 11pm central time.  You can edit your picks until then.  Further contest info:

  • After the window to make picks has closed, we’ll post a public leaderboard page so you can see who’s winning the contest as players sign with teams.  We’re going to use entrants’ full names on it.  So, if that concerns you, please do not enter the contest.  Entries with inappropriate names will be deleted.
  • We are also collecting email addresses, which I will use to notify winners.  I may also send occasional promotional emails for Trade Rumors Front Office.
  • If a player signs between now and the close of the contest, that’s a freebie, but you still need to go in and make the correct pick.
  • After you submit your picks, you’ll receive an email from Google Forms.  In that email, you’ll see a button that allows you to edit your picks.
  • We will announce the winners on MLBTR once all 50 free agents have signed.  We will award $500 to first place, $300 to second place, and $100 to third place.  We will also be giving out ten one-year memberships to Trade Rumors Front Office.  Winners must respond to an email within one week.
  • Ties in the correct number of picks will be broken by summing up the rankings of the free agents of the correct picks and taking the lower total.  For example: Tim and Steve each get two picks correct.  Tim gets Trevor Bauer (#1 ranking) and James Paxton (#20 ranking) for a total of 21 points.  Steve gets Ha-Seong Kim (#6) and James McCann (#14) for a total of 20 points.  Steve’s total is lower and he’s ahead of Tim for tiebreaker purposes.

If you have any further questions, ask us in the comment section of this post!  Otherwise, make your picks now!

Latest On Eduardo Rodriguez

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Red Sox left-hander Eduardo Rodriguez is entering his final year of team control, in which he’ll earn around $8.3MM in arbitration, but his hope is to remain in Boston beyond 2021.

“I want to stay in Boston as long as my career goes,” he told Alex Speier of the Boston Globe. “I want to play in Boston forever. That’s where I got to the big leagues. That’s where I got an opportunity. That’s my family. That’s a ballpark where I really love to pitch — the history, everything.”

Rodriguez emphasized to Speier in their discussion, which is worth a full read, how well he is doing after a season cut off because of myocarditis and COVID-19. He expects to return to the mound next year after missing all of 2020 because of those health problems.

“I’m 100 percent and I can start doing everything,” he said. “I feel fine. I feel great.”

You can’t help but feel happy about the progress made by Rodriguez, who was a quality starter for the Red Sox from 2015-19 before his health issues cut him down. Rodriguez recorded a 3.81 ERA/3.88 FIP in 203 1/3 innings as a member of the Red Sox two seasons ago and looked like one of the top young starters in the game then. One of the main questions now is whether the 27-year-old will stay in Boston for the long haul.

Chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom didn’t make it clear in an interview with WEEI (via Rob Bradford) how serious he is about an extension for Rodriguez, but he did say there’s “a mutual desire” to hammer out an agreement. However, if no extension comes together in the coming months and Rodriguez reestablishes himself as a formidable rotation option next year, he’ll be a very appealing free agent a year from now.

Latest On DJ LeMahieu

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Second baseman DJ LeMahieu was a godsend for the Yankees during the previous two seasons, but as a free agent, he could go elsewhere this offseason. Re-signing with the Yankees is LeMahieu’s preference, according to Ken Davidoff of the New York Post, but the 2020 American League batting champion wants to stay in the area. That could put a LeMahieu-Mets union in play, per Davidoff, though he reports that the Blue Jays are also in on him.

The Mets now have an unexpected opening at the keystone after starter Robinson Cano received a 162-game suspension Wednesday because of performance-enhancing drugs. Cano won’t earn a penny of his $24MM salary as a result, which will only make it easier for new, deep-pocketed Mets owner Steve Cohen to make splashes this winter. The Mets don’t necessarily have to throw money around at second, as they could simply use Jeff McNeil at the position and allocate their cash elsewhere, but LeMahieu does look like a more realistic option for the franchise than he did before Cano’s punishment came down.

The Yankees, for their part, aren’t going to let LeMahieu walk without a fight. They already gave LeMahieu a qualifying offer worth $18.9MM for 2021, but he made the no-brainer decision to reject it. They still want to keep him, however, according to Davidoff.

Regardless of whether LeMahieu stays with the Yankees, the team’s call to sign him for two years and $24MM before 2019 was a masterstroke, considering he was its best player over the prior two seasons. The 32-year-old former Cub and Rockie is now coming off a near-MVP season, which puts LeMahieu in position to clean up during this winter’s free-agent period. MLBTR pegs LeMahieu for a four-year, $68MM contract, though it wouldn’t be surprising to see him do even better than that on the open market.

Cardinals Select Angel Rondon

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The Cardinals announced that they have selected right-hander Angel Rondon to their 40-man roster. Their roster now consists of 39 players.

The Dominican-born Rondon, 22, has been a member of the St. Louis organization since before the 2016 season, and he has pitched to a sturdy 3.01 ERA with 8.8 K/9 and 3.1 BB/9 over 347 1/3 minor league innings with the Cardinals. Rondon topped out at Double-A ball in 2019 and impressed with a 3.21 ERA/3.97 FIP, 8.77 K/9 and 3.29 BB/9 across 115 frames and 20 appearances (all starts) en route to Minor League Pitcher of the Year honors for the Cards that season.

Rondon now ranks as the Cardinals’ 13th-best prospect at MLB.com, which writes that he boasts a 93 to 94 mph fastball that can hit 97. He also features a “power curveball” and “an average changeup.” That mix of pitches could help Rondon evolve into a legitimate major league starter or at least a useful reliever.

Offseason Outlook: San Diego Padres

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The 2020 campaign represented a major step in the right direction for the Padres, who clinched their first playoff berth since 2006 and advanced in the postseason for the first time since 1998. While things are no doubt looking up for the franchise, its offseason hasn’t come without some drastic changes in the early going. The team found out earlier this week that right-hander Mike Clevinger won’t pitch in 2021 after undergoing Tommy John surgery, and then executive chairman Ron Fowler stepped down from his role. Fowler’s exit leaves the Padres with a new control person in Ron Seidler.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Manny Machado, 3B: $240MM through 2028
  • Eric Hosmer, 1B: $79MM through 2025
  • Wil Myers, OF: $41MM through 2022 (including $1MM buyout for 2023)
  • Drew Pomeranz, LHP: $22MM through 2023
  • Mike Clevinger, RHP: $11.5MM through 2022
  • Craig Stammen, RHP: $5MM through 2021 (including $1MM buyout for 2022)
  • Pierce Johnson, RHP: $3MM through 2021 (including $1MM buyout for 2022)

Arbitration-Eligible Players

Note on arb-eligible players: this year’s arbitration projections are more volatile than ever, given the unprecedented revenue losses felt by clubs and the shortened 2020 schedule. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, who developed our arbitration projection model, used three different methods to calculate different projection numbers. You can see the full projections and an explanation of each if you click here, but for the purposes of our Outlook series, we’ll be using Matt’s 37-percent method — extrapolating what degree of raise a player’s 2020 rate of play would have earned him in a full 162-game slate and then awarding him 37 percent of that raise.

Option Decisions

Free Agents

The Padres are fortunate enough that they shouldn’t have to spend much time worrying about their catcher position or their infield in the coming months. In-season acquisition Austin Nola looks like the answer as the Padres’ primary backstop, though they may have to decide whether to deploy Francisco Mejia as his backup, use him as a trade chip and turn the role over to Luis Campusano, or shop for help from outside the organization. Other than that, the Padres look set with the superstar third base-shortstop tandem of Manny Machado and Fernando Tatis Jr. on the left side of their infield and second baseman Jake Cronenworth and first baseman Eric Hosmer occupying the other positions. The main concern in that group is Tatis’ future, as the Padres have to worry about keeping him in the fold for the long haul with a contract extension. The two sides have already expressed interest in mapping out a long-term arrangement.

There is less certainty in the outfield, though the Padres appear to have their solution in center with Trent Grisham. Right fielder Wil Myers had a tremendous bounce-back year in 2020, but if the Padres had their druthers, perhaps they would move on from the pricey three seasons left on his contract in a trade. That looks unlikely unless San Diego takes back a similarly inflated contract, so Myers figures to remain with the team. While those two positions may be spoken for going forward, left field looks like less of a sure thing. The Padres could just keep Tommy Pham, but his production cratered during an injury-shortened 2020, and non-tendering him would save the Padres about $8MM. Meanwhile, Jurickson Profar – who played more games in left than any other Padre last season – is a free agent.

If the Padres say goodbye to Pham, there’s a case that they should just re-sign Profar, who had a respectable year. Otherwise, Michael Brantley, Joc Pederson, Brett Gardner and Robbie Grossman are among those they could target in free agency. Of course, more choices will become available when teams announce which players they’re non-tendering.

With Clevinger, Dinelson Lamet, Zach Davies and Chris Paddack comprising 80 percent of their starting staff, the Padres’ rotation seemed to be in enviable shape just a couple days ago. Their confidence probably took a hit Wednesday, though, with Clevinger’s out-of-nowhere TJ procedure. He won’t be a factor next year, but the Padres do still have most of their rotation settled with Lamet and Davies, who each broke out in 2020, and Paddack. They also feature MacKenzie Gore, Luis Patino, Adrian Morejon, Joey Lucchesi and Ryan Weathers as in-house options who could assume starting spots in 2021.

If the Padres don’t want to turn over spots to two members of that group, they’ll have plenty of free-agent possibilities. Southern California native Trevor Bauer is easily the cream of the crop, but signing him may require the Padres to hand out yet another nine-figure contract. More modest options include their own free agent, Garrett Richards, as well as Masahiro Tanaka, Jake Odorizzi, ex-Friar Corey Kluber, Jose Quintana and James Paxton, among others. The Padres also look like a realistic trade suitor for the Rangers’ Lance Lynn, who’s due a modest $8MM next year and whom his team seems likely to trade.

The bullpen may be an area of some emphasis in the offseason for the Padres, who could lose summer pickup Trevor Rosenthal in free agency. Former star closer Kirby Yates is also on the market, though he didn’t pitch much in 2020 because of injuries. That said, the Padres do have a lot of their 2021 bullpen already figured out with Drew Pomeranz, Emilio Pagan, Pierce Johnson, Matt Strahm and Craig Stammen set to reprise their roles. Austin Adams and Tim Hill are along among the veterans remaining in the mix, but it still wouldn’t be a surprise to see the Padres seek bullpen help from elsewhere. The big prize could be Josh Hader, whom the Brewers are open to trading; otherwise, in no particular order, Rosenthal, Yates, former Padre Brad Hand, Liam Hendriks, Blake Treinen, Trevor May, Jake McGee, Mark Melancon and Shane Greene are some late-game hurlers who should draw their share of interest in free agency.

With the Padres in the throes of a seemingly endless playoff drought at this time last offseason, general manager A.J. Preller had his back up against the wall a winter ago. Preller and the team he built found a way to deliver, though, and now the Padres look like a club that should contend again in 2021 with another productive offseason. The Padres are short on glaring holes, but there is at least room for improvement in their pitching staff and perhaps their outfield.

Brewers Promote Matt Arnold To General Manager

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The Brewers announced Thursday that they’ve promoted assistant general manager Matt Arnold, giving him the title of senior vice president and general manager. David Stearns, the team’s president of baseball operations and general manager, still sits atop Milwaukee’s baseball operations hierarchy but has had the “GM” portion dropped from his title in light of Arnold’s promotion.

The timing of the move likely isn’t a coincidence, as multiple clubs around the game have had GM vacancies open up — with a few still to be filled. Arnold is a well-respected executive who’d surely have generated interest for clubs looking to lure him away with a promotion to a GM post in their own organization. Arnold’s promotion won’t give him the autonomy over baseball operations decisions he might’ve been granted with another club, but it’s a notable bump in stature (and presumably in salary) that will make it more difficult for other teams to hire him away.

“For the past five years, Matt has served an invaluable role in helping to guide our baseball operations group,” Stearns said in a press release announcing the move. “He has contributed to every significant decision we have made and has offered indispensable advice and support throughout that time with the Brewers. Today’s announcement formalizes how we have operated over the last few years. This move provides Matt with the deserved recognition of his tireless work and ensures that our baseball operations leadership group remains intact.”

The 41-year-old Arnold originally came to the Brewers from the Rays organization, where he spent nine seasons in a variety of roles, including director of player personnel. He’s also worked for the Dodgers, Rangers and Reds over the course of a 20-year baseball operations career, occupying roles in scouting, player development and player analysis along the way.

Tigers Release Brandon Dixon To Pursue Opportunity In Japan

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The Tigers announced this morning that they’ve released infielder/outfielder Brandon Dixon in order to allow him to pursue an opportunity in Japan. The move drops Detroit’s 40-man roster to a total of 36 players in advance of tomorrow’s deadline to protect players from the Rule 5 Draft.

It’s not yet clear which Nippon Professional Baseball will be signing the 28-year-old Dixon. The former third-round pick (Dodgers, 2013) was traded from Los Angeles to Cincinnati alongside Scott Schebler and Jose Peraza in the three-team swap that sent Todd Frazier to the White Sox. (The Dodgers picked up Frankie Montas, Trayce Thompson and Micah Johnson from Chicago in that deal.)

Dixon made it to the big leagues with the Reds in 2018 but struggled through 124 plate appearances before being jettisoned from the 40-man roster that November. The Tigers claimed him and gave him a fairly substantial role with their 2019 club, as Dixon logged a career-high 420 plate appearances while hitting .248/.290/.435 with 15 homers, 20 doubles and four triples. His poor on-base percentage and the arrival of some younger talent for the Tigers in 2020 limited Dixon’s chances; he appeared in just five games with Detroit this past season and went 1-for-13 with a walk and a double.

Overall, Dixon is a .228/.271/.410 hitter in 558 Major League plate appearances, but he’s fared much better in Triple-A: .280/.333/.472 in 184 games. He’s worked primarily as a first baseman and corner outfielder in recent seasons with the Tigers, but Dixon has at least some professional experience at every position on the diamond except shortstop and catcher.

Rochester Red Wings To Become Nationals’ Triple-A Affiliate

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The Nationals will have a new Triple-A affiliate in 2021, as they’ve reached an agreement with the Rochester Red Wings, Justin Murphy and Sean Lahman of the Rochester Democrat and Chronicle report. The move to partner with the Nationals will end an 18-year affiliation between the Red Wings and the Twins. The length of the new player development contract between the Nats and Red Wings hasn’t been announced, although such agreements are generally for two years or for four years.

The appeal for the Nationals in this deal is quite apparent. The Nats just wrapped up a two-year PDC with the Fresno Grizzlies after an awkward game of musical chairs between several teams and the few available Triple-A affiliates two years ago left them as the last two potential partners standing. Fresno is nearly 2800 miles and more than a six-hour flight from Nationals Park. It was never an ideal fit. Rochester is a mere 382 miles, with a flight to D.C. checking in at about 90 minutes.

Shuttling players between Triple-A and the big leagues will be vastly easier for the Nats in 2021 and beyond. They’ll also surely be pleased to move their young pitchers from the hitters’ paradise that is the Pacific Coast League to a friendlier setting in the International League.

As for the Twins, they’re now without a Triple-A affiliate, although they’ve long been reported to be working on an affiliation deal with the St. Paul Saints. While the Saints have been an independent team since their inception in 1993 — first in the Northern League and, since 2005, in the American Association — the Twins’ hope is that they can work out a deal to move their Triple-A club just miles from their current home park. Target Field and the Saints’ CHS Field are separated by all of 11 miles.

La Velle E. Neal III of the Minneapolis Star Tribune reported recently that the Twins and Saints are continuing to progress toward a deal and may even have the framework of an agreement in place. Triple-A stadiums are required to have a capacity of at least 10,000, but Neal writes that said requirement would be waived for the recently constructed CHS Field, which opened in 2015 and has a 7210-person capacity. The Saints would need to pay a significant sum to Minor League Baseball — $20MM — in order to be granted affiliation, which is the biggest remaining hurdle in the agreement.

Aaron Brooks Re-Signs With KBO’s KIA Tigers

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Righty Aaron Brooks will remain in Korea for a second season. He has inked a new deal to remain with the KIA Tigers, the club announced (h/t Dan Kurtz of MyKBO, via Twitter).

Brooks is slated to take home a $200K signing bonus and $1MM payday — the reward for a productive 2020 season. Over 151 1/3 innings in his debut KBO showing, Brooks worked to a 2.50 ERA with 130 strikeouts and 24 walks.

If he’s able to repeat that effort in 2021, Brooks could look to follow some other players in moving back to the majors from Korea. He didn’t find much success in his first four seasons at the game’s highest level, carrying a 6.49 cumulative ERA over 170 2/3 frames.

DeWitt: Cards Have “Fluid” Budget For 2021

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The Cardinals have given clear signals of a coming payroll reduction, but the extent of the paring remains to be seen. Team chairman Bill DeWitt Jr. discussed the matter further with Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch.

DeWitt characterized the Cards’ player salary situation as “fluid,” adding that there’s still quite a lot of “uncertainty” pervading the sport. A major component of that, of course, is a still-muddled public health outlook for 2021. Even if more was known about the course of COVID-19, there’d still be a broader grey area in the player market on the heels of an unprecedented, shortened season.

It seems certain that the Cardinals and their rivals will have a much better idea what to expect of the 2021 season in a few months time. As DeWitt notes: “The good news is that we have a number of months to go here.” Perhaps a slow-moving market won’t portend financial devastation for the player’s side, so much as reflect a mutual need to wait and see.

As Goold explains, the St. Louis organization is especially reliant upon live attendance to support its usually robust revenue. With a wider band of potential revenue projections, it seems the Cards’ ultimate budget for player salaries could yet move up or down by a significant amount depending upon which direction the winds blow.

DeWitt did make clear he intends to field a “competitive” roster, even if the team did kick off its offseason by declining a club option over solid second baseman Kolten Wong. That call, DeWitt says, was designed primarily to create “flexibility” entering a murky winter.

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